EV evolution

Tesla Q1 profit falls by more than half, but stock jumps amid production of cheaper vehicles

The Austin, Texas, company said it made $1.13 billion from January through March compared with $2.51 billion in the same period a year ago. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla’s first-quarter net income plummeted 55 percent, but its stock price surged in after-hours trading Tuesday as the company said it would accelerate production of new, more affordable vehicles.

The Austin, Texas, company said it made $1.13 billion from January through March compared with $2.51 billion in the same period a year ago.

Investors and analysts were looking for some sign that Tesla will take steps to stem its stock's slide this year and grow sales. The company did that in a letter to investors Tuesday, saying that production of smaller, more affordable models will start ahead of previous guidance.

The smaller models, which apparently include the Model 2 small car that is expected to cost around $25,000, will use new generation vehicle underpinnings and some features of current models. The company said it would be built on the same manufacturing lines as its current products.

On a conference call with analysts, CEO Elon Musk said he expects production to start in the second half of next year “if not late this year.”

New factories or massive new production lines won't be needed for the new vehicles, Musk said.

“This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times,” the investor letter said.

But Musk gave few specifics on just what the new vehicles will be and whether they would be variants of current models. “I think we’ve said all we will on that front,” he told an analyst.

He did say that he expects Tesla to sell more vehicles this year than last year's 1.8 million.

The company also appears to be counting on a vehicle built to be a fully autonomous robotaxi as the catalyst for future earnings growth. Musk has said the robotaxi will be unveiled on Aug. 8.

Shares of Tesla rose 11 percent in trading after Tuesday’s closing bell, but they are down more than 40 percent this year. The S&P 500 index is up about 5 percent for the year.

Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein said the company gave guidance about its future that was clearer than in the past, allaying investor concerns about production of the Model 2 and future growth. “I think for now we're likely to see the stock stabilize," he said. “I think Tesla provided an outlook today that can make investors feel more assured that management is righting the ship.”

But if sales fall again in the second quarter, the guidance will go out the window and concerns will return, he said.

Tesla reported that first-quarter revenue was $21.3 billion, down 9 percent from last year as worldwide sales dropped nearly 9 percent due to increased competition and slowing demand for electric vehicles.

Excluding one-time items such as stock-based compensation, Tesla made 45 cents per share, falling short of analyst estimates of 49 cents, according to FactSet.

The company’s gross profit margin, the percentage of revenue it gets to keep after expenses, fell once again to 17.4 percent. A year ago it was 19.3 percent, and it peaked at 29.1 percent in the first quarter of 2022.

Over the weekend, Tesla lopped $2,000 off the price of the Models Y, S and X in the U.S. and reportedly made cuts in other countries including China as global electric vehicle sales growth slowed. It also slashed the cost of “Full Self Driving” by one third to $8,000.

Tesla also announced last week that it would cut 10 percent of its 140,000 employees, and Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said Tuesday the cuts will be across the board. Growth companies build up duplication that needs to be pruned like a tree to continue growing, he said.

Musk has been touting the robotaxi as a growth catalyst for Tesla since the hardware for it went on sale late in 2015.

In 2019, Musk promised a fleet of autonomous robotaxis by 2020 that would bring income to Tesla owners and make their car values appreciate. Instead, they've declined with price cuts, as the autonomous robotaxis have been delayed year after year while being tested by owners as the company gathers road data for its computers.

Neither Musk nor other Tesla executives on Tuesday's call would specify when they expect Tesla vehicles to drive themselves as well as humans do. Instead, Musk touted the latest version of Tesla’s autonomous driving software — which the company misleadingly brands as “Full Self Driving” despite the fact that it still requires human supervision — and said that “it’s only a matter of time before we exceed the reliability of humans, and not much time at that.”

It didn’t take the Tesla CEO long to begin expounding on the possibility of turning on self-driving capabilities for millions of Tesla vehicles at once, although again without estimating when that might actually occur. He went on to insist that “if somebody doesn’t believe that Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company.”

Early last year the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration made Tesla recall its “Full Self-Driving” system because it can misbehave around intersections and doesn’t always follow speed limits. Tesla's less-sophisticated Autopilot system also was recalled to bolster its driver monitoring system.

Some experts don't think any system that relies solely on cameras like Tesla's can ever reach full autonomy.

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A View From HETI

A new JLL report predicts that power will become the primary factor in selecting future data center sites, with renewables playing a major role. Photo courtesy JLL.

Renewable energy is evolving as the primary energy source for large data centers, according to a new report.

The 2026 Global Data Center Outlook from commercial real estate services giant JLL points out that the pivot toward big data centers being powered by renewable energy stems from rising electricity costs and tightening carbon reduction requirements. In the data center sector, renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, is expected to outcompete fossil fuels on cost, the report says.

The JLL forecast carries implications for the Houston area’s tech and renewable energy sectors.

As of December, Texas was home to 413 data centers, second only to Virginia at 665, according to Visual Capitalist. Dozens more data centers are in the pipeline, with many of the new facilities slated for the Houston, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio areas.

Amid Texas’ data center boom, several Houston companies are making inroads in the renewable energy market for data centers. For example, Houston-based low-carbon energy supplier ENGIE North America agreed last May to supply up to 300 megawatts of wind power for a Cipher Mining data center in West Texas.

The JLL report says power, not location or cost, will become the primary factor in selecting sites for data centers due to multi-year waits for grid connections.

“Energy infrastructure has emerged as the critical bottleneck constraining expansion [of data centers],” the report says. “Grid limitations now threaten to curtail growth trajectories, making behind-the-meter generation and integrated battery storage solutions essential pathways for sustainable scaling.”

Behind-the-meter generation refers to onsite energy systems such as microgrids, solar panels and solar battery storage. The report predicts global solar capacity will expand by roughly 100 gigawatts between 2026 and 2030 to more than 10,000 gigawatts.

“Solar will account for nearly half of global renewable energy capacity in 2026, and despite its intermittent properties, solar will remain a key source of sustainable energy for the data center sector for years to come,” the report says.

Thanks to cost and sustainability benefits, solar-plus-storage will become a key element of energy strategies for data centers by 2030, according to the report.

“While some of this energy harvesting will be colocated with data center facilities, much of the energy infrastructure will be installed offsite,” the report says.

Other findings of the report include:

  • AI could represent half of data center workloads by 2030, up from a quarter in 2025.
  • The current five-year “supercycle” of data center infrastructure development may result in global investments of up to $3 trillion by 2030.
  • Nearly 100 gigawatts worth of new data centers will be added between 2026 and 2030, doubling global capacity.

“We’re witnessing the most significant transformation in data center infrastructure since the original cloud migration,” says Matt Landek, who leads JLL’s data center division. “The sheer scale of demand is extraordinary.”

Hyperscalers, which operate massive data centers, are allocating $1 trillion for data center spending between 2024 and 2026, Landek notes, “while supply constraints and four-year grid connection delays are creating a perfect storm that’s fundamentally reshaping how we approach development, energy sourcing, and market strategy.”

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