Houston expert asks: Is the Texas grid ready for the future?

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Data centers, EVs, and storms put the Texas grid to the test. Photo courtesy UH.

Texas has spent the past five years racing to strengthen its electric grid after Winter Storm Uri exposed just how vulnerable it was. Billions have gone into new transmission lines, grid hardening, and a surge of renewables and batteries. Those moves have made a difference, we haven’t seen another systemwide blackout like Uri, but the question now isn’t what’s been done, it’s whether Texas can keep up with what’s coming.

Massive data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial projects are driving electricity demand to unprecedented levels. NERC recently boosted its 10-year load forecast for Texas by more than 60%. McKinsey projects that U.S. electricity demand will rise roughly 40% by 2030 and double by 2050, with data centers alone accounting for as much as 11-12% of total U.S. electricity demand by 2030, up from about 4% today. Texas, already the top destination for new data centers, will feel that surge at a greater scale.

While the challenges ahead are massive and there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road (some probably big), we have an engaged Texas legislature, capable regulatory bodies, active non-profits, pragmatic industry groups, and the best energy minds in the world working together to make a market-based system work. I am optimistic Texas will find a way.

Why Texas Faces a Unique Grid Challenge

About 90% of Texas is served by a single, independent grid operated by ERCOT, rather than being connected to the two large interstate grids that cover the rest of the country. This structure allows ERCOT to avoid federal oversight of its market design, although it still must comply with FERC reliability standards. The trade-off is limited access to power from neighboring states during emergencies, leaving Texas to rely almost entirely on in-state generation and reserves when extreme weather hits.

ERCOT’s market design is also different. It’s an “energy-only” market, meaning generators are paid for electricity sold, not for keeping capacity available. While that lowers prices in normal times, it also makes it harder to finance backup, dispatchable generation like natural gas and batteries needed when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining.

The Risks Mounting

In Texas, solar and wind power supply a significant percentage of electricity to the grid. As Julie Cohn, a nonresident scholar at the Baker Institute, explains, these inverter‑based resources “connect through power electronics, which means they don’t provide the same physical signals to the grid that traditional generators do.” The Odessa incidents, where solar farms tripped offline during minor grid disturbances, showed how fragile parts of this evolving grid can be. “Fortunately, it didn’t result in customer outages, and it was a clear signal that Texas has the opportunity to lead in solving this challenge.”

Extreme weather adds more pressure while the grid is trying to adapt to a surge in use. CES research manager Miaomiao Rimmer notes: “Hurricane frequencies haven't increased, but infrastructure and population in their paths have expanded dramatically. The same hurricane that hit 70 years ago would cause far more damage today because there’s simply more in harm’s way.”

Medlock: “Texas has made significant strides in the last 5 years, but there’s more work to be done.”

Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, argues that Texas’s problem isn’t a lack of solutions; it’s how quickly those solutions are implemented. He stresses that during the January 2024 cold snap, natural gas kept the grid stable, proving that “any system configuration with sufficient, dispatchable generation capacity would have kept the lights on.” Yet ERCOT load has exceeded dispatchable capacity with growing frequency since 2018, raising the stakes for future reliability.

Ken notes: “ERCOT has a substantial portfolio of options, including investment in dispatchable generation, storage near industrial users, transmission expansion, and siting generation closer to load centers. But allowing structural risks to reliability that can be avoided at a reasonable cost is unacceptable. Appropriate market design and sufficient regulatory oversight are critical.” He emphasizes that reliability must be explicitly priced into ERCOT’s market so backup resources can be built and maintained profitably. These resources, whether natural gas, nuclear, or batteries, cannot remain afterthoughts if Texas wants a stable grid.

Building a More Reliable Grid

For Texas to keep pace with rising demand and withstand severe weather, it must act decisively on multiple fronts, strengthening its grid while building for long-term growth.

Coordinated Planning: Align regulators, utilities, and market players to plan decades ahead, not just for next summer.
Balancing Clean and Reliable Power: Match renewable growth with flexible, dispatchable generation that can deliver power on demand.
Fixing Local Weak Spots: Harden distribution networks, where most outages occur, rather than focusing only on large-scale generation.
Market Reform and Technology Investment: Price reliability fairly and support R&D to make renewables strengthen, not destabilize, the grid.

In Conclusion

While Texas has undeniably improved its grid since Winter Storm Uri, surging electricity demand and intensifying weather mean the work is far from over. Unlike other states, ERCOT can’t rely on its neighbors for backup power, and its market structure makes new dispatchable resources harder to build. Decisive leadership, investment, and reforms will be needed to ensure Texas can keep the lights on.

It probably won’t be a smooth journey, but my sense is that Texas will solve these problems and do something spectacular. It will deliver more power with fewer emissions, faster than skeptics believe, and surprise us all.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

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Hobby Airport's new solar canopy is operating at 100% capacity. Photo courtesy Houston Airports.

Hobby debuts solar canopy as airport system reaches new sustainability milestone

solar solutions

Houston's William P. Hobby Airport is generating its own clean energy.

Houston Airports announced that Hobby's red garage is now home to a "solar canopy" that is producing energy at 100 percent capacity to power daily operations. The photovoltaic (PV) solar system generated more than 1.1 gigawatt-hours of electricity in testing, and is expected to produce up to 1 megawatt-hour now that it's operating at full power.

“This project is proof that sustainability can be practical, visible and directly tied to the passenger experience,” Jim Szczesniak, director of aviation for Houston Airports, said in a news release. “Passengers now park under a structure that shields their cars from the Texas sun while generating clean energy that keeps airport operations running efficiently, lowering overall peak demand electrical costs during the day and our carbon footprint. It’s a win for travelers, the city and the planet.”

The project was completed by Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station (TEES) and CenterPoint Energy. It's part of Houston Airport's efforts to reduce carbon emissions by 40 percent over its 2019 baseline.

In a separate announcement, the airport system also shared that it recently reached Level 3 in the Airports Council International (ACI) Airport Carbon Accreditation program after reducing emissions by 19 percent in three years. This includes reductions at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH), Hobby and Ellington Airport/Houston Spaceport.

The reductions have come from initiatives such as adding electric vehicles to airport fleets, upgrading airfield lighting with LED bulbs, adding smarter power systems to terminals, and improving IAH's central utility plant with more efficient equipment. Additionally, the expansion to Hobby's West Concourse and renovations at IAH Terminal B incorporate cleaner equipment and technology.

According to Houston Airports, from 2019 to 2023:

IAH reduced emissions by 17 percent
Hobby reduced emissions by 32 percent
Ellington Airport reduced emissions by 4 percent

"I see firsthand how vital it is to link infrastructure with sustainability,” Houston City Council Member Twila Carter, chair of the council’s Resilience Committee, said in the release. “Reducing carbon emissions at our airports isn’t just about cleaner travel — it’s about smarter planning, safer communities and building a Houston that can thrive for generations to come.”

MP Materials gets a boost from Apple and Defense Department investments. Courtesy photo

America's only rare earth producer announces $500M agreement with Apple

Digging In

MP Materials, which runs the only American rare earths mine, announced a new $500 million agreement with tech giant Apple on Tuesday to produce more of the powerful magnets used in iPhones as well as other high-tech products like electric vehicles.

This news comes on the heels of last week’s announcement that the U.S. Defense Department agreed to invest $400 million in shares of the Las Vegas-based company. That will make the government the largest shareholder in MP Materials and help increase magnet production.

Despite their name, the 17 rare earth elements aren’t actually rare, but it’s hard to find them in a high enough concentration to make a mine worth the investment.

They are important ingredients in everything from smartphones and submarines to EVs and fighter jets, and it's those military applications that have made rare earths a key concern in ongoing U.S. trade talks. That's because China dominates the market and imposed new limits on exports after President Donald Trump announced his widespread tariffs. When shipments dried up, the two sides sat down in London.

The agreement with Apple will allow MP Materials to further expand its new factory in Texas to use recycled materials to produce the magnets that make iPhones vibrate. The company expects to start producing magnets for GM's electric vehicles later this year and this agreement will let it start producing magnets for Apple in 2027.

The Apple agreement represents a sliver of the company's pledge to invest $500 billion domestically during the Trump administration. And although the deal will provide a significant boost for MP Materials, the agreement with the Defense Department may be even more meaningful.

Neha Mukherjee, a rare earths analyst with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said in a research note that the Pentagon's 10-year promise to guarantee a minimum price for the key elements of neodymium and praseodymium will guarantee stable revenue for MP Minerals and protect it from potential price cuts by Chinese producers that are subsidized by their government.

“This is the kind of long-term commitment needed to reshape global rare earth supply chains," Mukherjee said.

Trump has made it a priority to try to reduce American reliance on China for rare earths. His administration is both helping MP Materials and trying to encourage the development of new mines that would take years to come to fruition. China has agreed to issue some permits for rare earth exports but not for military uses, and much uncertainty remains about their supply. The fear is that the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies could lead to a critical shortage of rare earth elements that could disrupt production of a variety of products. MP Materials can't satisfy all of the U.S. demand from its Mountain Pass mine in California’s Mojave Desert.

The deals by MP Materials come as Beijing and Washington have agreed to walk back on their non-tariff measures: China is to grant export permits for rare earth magnets to the U.S., and the U.S. is easing export controls on chip design software and jet engines. The truce is intended to ease tensions and prevent any catastrophic fall-off in bilateral relations, but is unlikely to address fundamental differences as both governments take steps to reduce dependency on each other.

Musk has said Tesla will hold a shareholder meeting in November. Photo via Getty Images

Tesla announces annual meeting under pressure from shareholders

Tesla Talk

Tesla has scheduled an annual shareholder meeting for November, one day after it came under pressure from major shareholders to do so.

Billionaire Elon Musk's company said in a regulatory filing on Thursday that the meeting would be held Nov. 6, but that may prove troublesome because it comes nearly three months after it is required to do so under state law in Texas, where the company is incorporated.

The annual meeting, given Tesla's fortunes this year, has the potential to be a raucous event and it is unclear how investors will react to the delay, which is rare for any major U.S. corporation.

Tesla shares have plunged 27% this year, largely due to blowback over Musk's affiliation with President Donald Trump, as well as rising competition.

The announcement of the meeting comes a day after a group of more than 20 Tesla shareholders sent a letter to the company's board pressing for an annual meeting after receiving no word of one with the deadline just days away.

Many shareholders have been miffed by Musk's participation in the Trump administration this year, saying he needs to focus on his EV company which is facing extraordinary pressures.

“An annual meeting provides shareholders with the opportunity to hear directly from the board about these concerns, and to vote for or against directors, the board’s approach to executive compensation, and other matters of material importance,” the group said in the letter.

The group cited Texas law, which requires companies to schedule annual shareholders meetings within 13 months of the prior annual meeting.

Tesla’s last shareholders meeting was on June 13 of last year, where investors voted to restore Musk’s record $44.9 billion pay package that was thrown out by a Delaware judge earlier that year.

Also on Thursday, Musk that the Grok chatbot will be heading to Tesla vehicles.

“Grok is coming to Tesla vehicles very soon. Next week at the latest,” Musk said on social media platform X, in response to a post stating that Grok implementation on Teslas wasn't announced on a Grok livestream Wednesday.

Grok was developed by Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI and pitched as an alternative to “woke AI” interactions from rival chatbots like Google’s Gemini, or OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Shares of Tesla rose 3% at the opening bell after tumbling this week when the feud between Trump and Musk heated up again.

Chevron U.S.A. has acquired 125,000 acres in Northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas that contain a high amount of lithium. Photo via Getty Images.

Chevron enters lithium market with Texas land acquisition

to market

Chevron U.S.A., a subsidiary of Houston-based energy company Chevron, has taken its first big step toward establishing a commercial-scale lithium business.

Chevron acquired leaseholds totaling about 125,000 acres in Northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas from TerraVolta Resources and East Texas Natural Resources. The acreage contains a high amount of lithium, which Chevron plans to extract from brines produced from the subsurface.

Lithium-ion batteries are used in an array of technologies, such as smartwatches, e-bikes, pacemakers, and batteries for electric vehicles, according to Chevron. The International Energy Agency estimates lithium demand could grow more than 400 percent by 2040.

“This acquisition represents a strategic investment to support energy manufacturing and expand U.S.-based critical mineral supplies,” Jeff Gustavson, president of Chevron New Energies, said in a news release. “Establishing domestic and resilient lithium supply chains is essential not only to maintaining U.S. energy leadership but also to meeting the growing demand from customers.”

Rania Yacoub, corporate business development manager at Chevron New Energies, said that amid heightening demand, lithium is “one of the world’s most sought-after natural resources.”

“Chevron is looking to help meet that demand and drive U.S. energy competitiveness by sourcing lithium domestically,” Yacoub said.

Texas falls among the middle of the pack when it comes to EV adoption, according to a new report. Photo via Unsplash

Texas drivers continue to pump the brakes on EVs, shows new report

EV adoption

Even though Texas is home to Tesla, a major manufacturer of electric vehicles, motorists in the Lone Star State aren’t in the fast lane when it comes to getting behind the wheel of an EV.

U.S. Department of Energy data compiled by Visual Capitalist shows Texas has 689.9 EV registrations per 100,000 people, putting it in 20th place for EV adoption among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. A report released in 2023 by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University found that a little over 5 percent of Texans drove EVs.

California leads all states for EV adoption, with 3,025.6 registrations per 100,000 people, according to Visual Capitalist. In second place is Washington, with an EV adoption rate of 1,805.4 per 100,000.

A recent survey by AAA revealed lingering reluctance among Americans to drive all-electric vehicles.

In the survey, just 16 percent of U.S. adults reported being “very likely” or “likely” to buy an all-electric vehicle as their next car. That’s the lowest level of interest in EVs recorded by AAA since 1999. The share of consumers indicating they’d be “very unlikely” or “unlikely” to buy an EV rose to 63 percent, the highest level since 2022.

Factors cited by EV critics included:

High cost to repair batteries (62 percent).
High purchase price (59 percent).
Ineffective transportation for long-distance travel (57 percent).
Lack of convenient public charging stations (56 percent).
Fear of battery running out of power while driving (55 percent).

“Since AAA began tracking consumer interest in fully electric vehicles, we’ve observed fluctuations in enthusiasm,” said Doug Shupe, corporate communications manager for AAA Texas. “While automakers continue investing in electrification and expanding EV offerings, many drivers still express hesitation — often tied to concerns about cost, range, and charging infrastructure.”

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ERCOT approves $9.4B project to improve grid, meet data center demand

power project

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the electric grid for 90 percent of Texans, is undertaking a $9.4 billion project to improve the reliability and efficiency of statewide power distribution. The initiative comes as ERCOT copes with escalating demand for electricity from data centers and cryptocurrency-mining facilities.

The project, approved Dec. 9 by ERCOT’s board, will involve building a 1,109-mile “super highway” of new 765-kilovolt transmission lines. One kilovolt equals 1,000 volts of electricity.

According to the Hoodline Dallas news site, the $9.4 billion project represents the five- to six-year first phase of ERCOT’s Strategic Transmission Expansion Plan (STEP). Hoodline says the plan, whose price tag is nearly $33 billion, calls for 2,468 miles of new 765-kilovolt power lines.

STEP will enable ERCOT to “move power longer distances with fewer losses,” Hoodline reports.

Upgrading the ERCOT grid is a key priority amid continued population growth in Texas, along with the state’s explosion of new data centers and cryptocurrency-mining facilities.

ERCOT says about 11,000 megawatts of new power generation capacity have been added to the ERCOT grid since last winter.

But in a report released ahead of the December board meeting, ERCOT says it received 225 requests this year from large power users to connect to its grid — a 270 percent uptick in the number of megawatts being sought by mega-users since last December. Nearly three-fourths (73 percent) of the requests came from data centers.

Allan Schurr, chief commercial officer of Houston-based Enchanted Rock, a provider of products and services for microgrids and onsite power generation, tells Energy Capital that the quickly expanding data center industry is putting “unprecedented pressure” on ERCOT’s grid.

“While the state has added new generation and transmission capacity, lengthy interconnection timelines and grid-planning limitations mean that supply and transmission are not keeping pace with this rapid expansion,” Schurr says. “This impacts both reliability and affordability.”

For families in Texas, this could result in higher energy bills, he says. Meanwhile, critical facilities like hospitals and grocery stores face a heightened challenge of preventing power outages during extreme weather or at other times when the ERCOT grid is taxed.

“I expect this trend to continue as AI and high-density computing grow, driving higher peak demand and greater grid variability — made even more complex by more renewables, extreme weather and other large energy users, like manufacturers,” Schurr says.

According to the Pew Research Center, data centers accounted for 4 percent of U.S. electricity use in 2024, and power demand from data centers is expected to more than double by 2030. Data centers that support the AI boom make up much of the rising demand.

In September, RBN Energy reported more than 10 massive data-center campuses had been announced in Texas, with dozens more planned. The Lone Star State is already home to roughly 400 data centers.

“Texas easily ranks among the nation’s top states for existing data centers, with only Virginia edging it out in both data-center count and associated power demand,” says RBN Energy.

Federal judge strikes Trump order blocking wind energy development

wind win

In a win for clean energy and wind projects in Texas and throughout the U.S., a federal judge struck down President Donald Trump’s “Day One” executive order that blocked wind energy development on federal lands and waters, the Associated Press reports.

Judge Patti Saris of the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts vacated Trump’s executive order from Jan. 20, declaring it unlawful and calling it “arbitrary and capricious.”

The challenge was led by a group of state attorneys general from 17 states and Washington, D.C., which was led by New York Attorney General Letitia James. The coalition pushed back against Trump's order , arguing that the administration didn’t have the authority to halt project permitting, and that efforts would critically impact state economies, the energy industry, public health and climate relief efforts.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told the Associated Press that wind projects were given unfair treatment during the Biden Administration and cited that the rest of the energy industry suffered from regulations.

According to the American Clean Power Association, wind is the largest source of renewable energy in the U.S. It provides 10 percent of the electricity generated—and growing. Texas leads the nation in wind electricity generation, accounting for 28 percent of the U.S. total in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Several clean-energy initiatives have been disrupted by recent policy changes, impacting Houston projects.

The Biden era Inflation Reduction Act’s 10-year hydrogen incentive was shortened under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, prompting ExxonMobil to pause its Baytown low-carbon hydrogen project. That project — and two others in the Houston region — also lost federal support as part of a broader $700 million cancellation tied to DOE cuts.

Meanwhile, Texas House Democrats have urged the administration to restore a $250 million Solar for All grant that would have helped low-income households install solar panels.

Texas launches cryptocurrency reserve with $5 million Bitcoin purchase

Digital Deals

Texas has launched its new cryptocurrency reserve with a $5 million purchase of Bitcoin as the state continues to embrace the volatile and controversial digital currency.

The Texas Comptroller’s Office confirmed the purchase was made last month as a “placeholder investment” while the office works to contract with a cryptocurrency bank to manage its portfolio.

The purchase is one of the first of its kind by a state government, made during a year where the price of Bitcoin has exploded amid the embrace of the digital currency by President Donald Trump’s administration and the rapid expansion of crypto mines in Texas.

“The Texas Legislature passed a bold mandate to create the nation’s first Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock wrote in a statement. “Our goal for implementation is simple: build a secure reserve that strengthens the state’s balance sheet. Texas is leading the way once again, and we’re proud to do it.”

The purchase represents half of the $10 million the Legislature appropriated for the strategic reserve during this year’s legislative session, but just a sliver of the state’s $338 billion budget.

However, the purchase is still significant, making Texas the first state to fund a strategic cryptocurrency reserve. Arizona and New Hampshire have also passed laws to create similar strategic funds but have not yet purchased cryptocurrency.

Wisconsin and Michigan made pension fund investments in cryptocurrency last year.

The Comptroller’s office purchased the Bitcoin the morning of Nov. 20 when the price of a single bitcoin was $91,336, according to the Comptroller’s office. As of Friday afternoon, Bitcoin was worth slightly less than the price Texas paid, trading for $89,406.

University of Houston energy economist Ed Hirs questioned the state’s investment, pointing to Bitcoin’s volatility. That makes it a bad investment of taxpayer dollars when compared to more common investments in the stock and bond markets, he said.

“The ordinary mix [in investing] is one that goes away from volatility,” Hirs said. “The goal is to not lose to the market. Once the public decides this really has no intrinsic value, then it will be over, and taxpayers will be left holding the bag.”

The price of Bitcoin is down significantly from an all-time high of $126,080 in early October.

Lee Bratcher, president of the Texas Blockchain Council, argued the state is making a good investment because the price of Bitcoin has trended upward ever since it first launched in early 2009.

“It’s only a 16-year-old asset, so the volatility, both in the up and down direction, will smooth out over time,” Bratcher said. “We still want it to retain some of those volatility characteristics because that’s how we could see those upward moves that will benefit the state’s finances in the future.”

Bratcher said the timing of the state’s investment was shrewd because he believes it is unlikely to be valued this low again.

The investment comes at a time that the crypto industry has found a home in Texas.

Rural counties have become magnets for crypto mines ever since China banned crypto mining in 2021 and Gov. Greg Abbott declared “Texas is open for crypto business” in a post on social media.

The state is home to at least 27 Bitcoin facilities, according to the Texas Blockchain Council, making it the world’s top crypto mining spot. The two largest crypto mining facilities in the world call Texas home.

The industry has also come under criticism as it expands.

Critics point to the industry’s significant energy usage, with crypto mines in the state consuming 2,717 megawatts of power in 2023, according to the comptroller’s office. That is enough electricity to power roughly 680,000 homes.

Crypto mines use large amounts of electricity to run computers that run constantly to produce cryptocurrencies, which are decentralized digital currencies used as alternatives to government-backed traditional currencies.

A 2023 study by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie commissioned by The New York Times found that Texans’ electric bills had risen nearly 5%, or $1.8 billion per year, due to the increase in demand on the state power grid created by crypto mines.

Residents living near crypto mines have also complained that the amount of job creation promised by the facilities has not materialized and the noise of their operation is a nuisance.

“Texas should be reinvesting Texan’s tax money in things that truly bolster the economy long term, living wage, access to quality healthcare, world class public schools,” said state Sen. Molly Cook, D-Houston, who voted against the creation of the strategic fund. “Instead it feels like they’re almost gambling our money on something that is known to be really volatile and has not shown to be a tide that raises all boats.”

State Sen. Charles Schwertner, R-Georgetown, who authored the bill that created the fund, said at the time it passed that it will allow Texas to “lead and compete in the digital economy.”

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This story was originally published by The Texas Tribune and distributed through a partnership with The Associated Press.

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