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Houston expert asks: Is the Texas grid ready for the future?

Guets Column

Data centers, EVs, and storms put the Texas grid to the test. Photo courtesy UH.

Texas has spent the past five years racing to strengthen its electric grid after Winter Storm Uri exposed just how vulnerable it was. Billions have gone into new transmission lines, grid hardening, and a surge of renewables and batteries. Those moves have made a difference, we haven’t seen another systemwide blackout like Uri, but the question now isn’t what’s been done, it’s whether Texas can keep up with what’s coming.

Massive data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial projects are driving electricity demand to unprecedented levels. NERC recently boosted its 10-year load forecast for Texas by more than 60%. McKinsey projects that U.S. electricity demand will rise roughly 40% by 2030 and double by 2050, with data centers alone accounting for as much as 11-12% of total U.S. electricity demand by 2030, up from about 4% today. Texas, already the top destination for new data centers, will feel that surge at a greater scale.

While the challenges ahead are massive and there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road (some probably big), we have an engaged Texas legislature, capable regulatory bodies, active non-profits, pragmatic industry groups, and the best energy minds in the world working together to make a market-based system work. I am optimistic Texas will find a way.

Why Texas Faces a Unique Grid Challenge

About 90% of Texas is served by a single, independent grid operated by ERCOT, rather than being connected to the two large interstate grids that cover the rest of the country. This structure allows ERCOT to avoid federal oversight of its market design, although it still must comply with FERC reliability standards. The trade-off is limited access to power from neighboring states during emergencies, leaving Texas to rely almost entirely on in-state generation and reserves when extreme weather hits.

ERCOT’s market design is also different. It’s an “energy-only” market, meaning generators are paid for electricity sold, not for keeping capacity available. While that lowers prices in normal times, it also makes it harder to finance backup, dispatchable generation like natural gas and batteries needed when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining.

The Risks Mounting

In Texas, solar and wind power supply a significant percentage of electricity to the grid. As Julie Cohn, a nonresident scholar at the Baker Institute, explains, these inverter‑based resources “connect through power electronics, which means they don’t provide the same physical signals to the grid that traditional generators do.” The Odessa incidents, where solar farms tripped offline during minor grid disturbances, showed how fragile parts of this evolving grid can be. “Fortunately, it didn’t result in customer outages, and it was a clear signal that Texas has the opportunity to lead in solving this challenge.”

Extreme weather adds more pressure while the grid is trying to adapt to a surge in use. CES research manager Miaomiao Rimmer notes: “Hurricane frequencies haven't increased, but infrastructure and population in their paths have expanded dramatically. The same hurricane that hit 70 years ago would cause far more damage today because there’s simply more in harm’s way.”

Medlock: “Texas has made significant strides in the last 5 years, but there’s more work to be done.”

Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, argues that Texas’s problem isn’t a lack of solutions; it’s how quickly those solutions are implemented. He stresses that during the January 2024 cold snap, natural gas kept the grid stable, proving that “any system configuration with sufficient, dispatchable generation capacity would have kept the lights on.” Yet ERCOT load has exceeded dispatchable capacity with growing frequency since 2018, raising the stakes for future reliability.

Ken notes: “ERCOT has a substantial portfolio of options, including investment in dispatchable generation, storage near industrial users, transmission expansion, and siting generation closer to load centers. But allowing structural risks to reliability that can be avoided at a reasonable cost is unacceptable. Appropriate market design and sufficient regulatory oversight are critical.” He emphasizes that reliability must be explicitly priced into ERCOT’s market so backup resources can be built and maintained profitably. These resources, whether natural gas, nuclear, or batteries, cannot remain afterthoughts if Texas wants a stable grid.

Building a More Reliable Grid

For Texas to keep pace with rising demand and withstand severe weather, it must act decisively on multiple fronts, strengthening its grid while building for long-term growth.

  • Coordinated Planning: Align regulators, utilities, and market players to plan decades ahead, not just for next summer.
  • Balancing Clean and Reliable Power: Match renewable growth with flexible, dispatchable generation that can deliver power on demand.
  • Fixing Local Weak Spots: Harden distribution networks, where most outages occur, rather than focusing only on large-scale generation.
  • Market Reform and Technology Investment: Price reliability fairly and support R&D to make renewables strengthen, not destabilize, the grid.

In Conclusion

While Texas has undeniably improved its grid since Winter Storm Uri, surging electricity demand and intensifying weather mean the work is far from over. Unlike other states, ERCOT can’t rely on its neighbors for backup power, and its market structure makes new dispatchable resources harder to build. Decisive leadership, investment, and reforms will be needed to ensure Texas can keep the lights on.

It probably won’t be a smooth journey, but my sense is that Texas will solve these problems and do something spectacular. It will deliver more power with fewer emissions, faster than skeptics believe, and surprise us all.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

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Hobby Airport's new solar canopy is operating at 100% capacity. Photo courtesy Houston Airports.

Hobby debuts solar canopy as airport system reaches new sustainability milestone

solar solutions

Houston's William P. Hobby Airport is generating its own clean energy.

Houston Airports announced that Hobby's red garage is now home to a "solar canopy" that is producing energy at 100 percent capacity to power daily operations. The photovoltaic (PV) solar system generated more than 1.1 gigawatt-hours of electricity in testing, and is expected to produce up to 1 megawatt-hour now that it's operating at full power.

“This project is proof that sustainability can be practical, visible and directly tied to the passenger experience,” Jim Szczesniak, director of aviation for Houston Airports, said in a news release. “Passengers now park under a structure that shields their cars from the Texas sun while generating clean energy that keeps airport operations running efficiently, lowering overall peak demand electrical costs during the day and our carbon footprint. It’s a win for travelers, the city and the planet.”

The project was completed by Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station (TEES) and CenterPoint Energy. It's part of Houston Airport's efforts to reduce carbon emissions by 40 percent over its 2019 baseline.

In a separate announcement, the airport system also shared that it recently reached Level 3 in the Airports Council International (ACI) Airport Carbon Accreditation program after reducing emissions by 19 percent in three years. This includes reductions at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH), Hobby and Ellington Airport/Houston Spaceport.

The reductions have come from initiatives such as adding electric vehicles to airport fleets, upgrading airfield lighting with LED bulbs, adding smarter power systems to terminals, and improving IAH's central utility plant with more efficient equipment. Additionally, the expansion to Hobby's West Concourse and renovations at IAH Terminal B incorporate cleaner equipment and technology.

According to Houston Airports, from 2019 to 2023:

  • IAH reduced emissions by 17 percent
  • Hobby reduced emissions by 32 percent
  • Ellington Airport reduced emissions by 4 percent

"I see firsthand how vital it is to link infrastructure with sustainability,” Houston City Council Member Twila Carter, chair of the council’s Resilience Committee, said in the release. “Reducing carbon emissions at our airports isn’t just about cleaner travel — it’s about smarter planning, safer communities and building a Houston that can thrive for generations to come.”

MP Materials gets a boost from Apple and Defense Department investments. Courtesy photo

America's only rare earth producer announces $500M agreement with Apple

Digging In

MP Materials, which runs the only American rare earths mine, announced a new $500 million agreement with tech giant Apple on Tuesday to produce more of the powerful magnets used in iPhones as well as other high-tech products like electric vehicles.

This news comes on the heels of last week’s announcement that the U.S. Defense Department agreed to invest $400 million in shares of the Las Vegas-based company. That will make the government the largest shareholder in MP Materials and help increase magnet production.

Despite their name, the 17 rare earth elements aren’t actually rare, but it’s hard to find them in a high enough concentration to make a mine worth the investment.

They are important ingredients in everything from smartphones and submarines to EVs and fighter jets, and it's those military applications that have made rare earths a key concern in ongoing U.S. trade talks. That's because China dominates the market and imposed new limits on exports after President Donald Trump announced his widespread tariffs. When shipments dried up, the two sides sat down in London.

The agreement with Apple will allow MP Materials to further expand its new factory in Texas to use recycled materials to produce the magnets that make iPhones vibrate. The company expects to start producing magnets for GM's electric vehicles later this year and this agreement will let it start producing magnets for Apple in 2027.

The Apple agreement represents a sliver of the company's pledge to invest $500 billion domestically during the Trump administration. And although the deal will provide a significant boost for MP Materials, the agreement with the Defense Department may be even more meaningful.

Neha Mukherjee, a rare earths analyst with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said in a research note that the Pentagon's 10-year promise to guarantee a minimum price for the key elements of neodymium and praseodymium will guarantee stable revenue for MP Minerals and protect it from potential price cuts by Chinese producers that are subsidized by their government.

“This is the kind of long-term commitment needed to reshape global rare earth supply chains," Mukherjee said.

Trump has made it a priority to try to reduce American reliance on China for rare earths. His administration is both helping MP Materials and trying to encourage the development of new mines that would take years to come to fruition. China has agreed to issue some permits for rare earth exports but not for military uses, and much uncertainty remains about their supply. The fear is that the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies could lead to a critical shortage of rare earth elements that could disrupt production of a variety of products. MP Materials can't satisfy all of the U.S. demand from its Mountain Pass mine in California’s Mojave Desert.

The deals by MP Materials come as Beijing and Washington have agreed to walk back on their non-tariff measures: China is to grant export permits for rare earth magnets to the U.S., and the U.S. is easing export controls on chip design software and jet engines. The truce is intended to ease tensions and prevent any catastrophic fall-off in bilateral relations, but is unlikely to address fundamental differences as both governments take steps to reduce dependency on each other.

Musk has said Tesla will hold a shareholder meeting in November. Photo via Getty Images

Tesla announces annual meeting under pressure from shareholders

Tesla Talk

Tesla has scheduled an annual shareholder meeting for November, one day after it came under pressure from major shareholders to do so.

Billionaire Elon Musk's company said in a regulatory filing on Thursday that the meeting would be held Nov. 6, but that may prove troublesome because it comes nearly three months after it is required to do so under state law in Texas, where the company is incorporated.

The annual meeting, given Tesla's fortunes this year, has the potential to be a raucous event and it is unclear how investors will react to the delay, which is rare for any major U.S. corporation.

Tesla shares have plunged 27% this year, largely due to blowback over Musk's affiliation with President Donald Trump, as well as rising competition.

The announcement of the meeting comes a day after a group of more than 20 Tesla shareholders sent a letter to the company's board pressing for an annual meeting after receiving no word of one with the deadline just days away.

Many shareholders have been miffed by Musk's participation in the Trump administration this year, saying he needs to focus on his EV company which is facing extraordinary pressures.

“An annual meeting provides shareholders with the opportunity to hear directly from the board about these concerns, and to vote for or against directors, the board’s approach to executive compensation, and other matters of material importance,” the group said in the letter.

The group cited Texas law, which requires companies to schedule annual shareholders meetings within 13 months of the prior annual meeting.

Tesla’s last shareholders meeting was on June 13 of last year, where investors voted to restore Musk’s record $44.9 billion pay package that was thrown out by a Delaware judge earlier that year.

Also on Thursday, Musk that the Grok chatbot will be heading to Tesla vehicles.

“Grok is coming to Tesla vehicles very soon. Next week at the latest,” Musk said on social media platform X, in response to a post stating that Grok implementation on Teslas wasn't announced on a Grok livestream Wednesday.

Grok was developed by Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI and pitched as an alternative to “woke AI” interactions from rival chatbots like Google’s Gemini, or OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Shares of Tesla rose 3% at the opening bell after tumbling this week when the feud between Trump and Musk heated up again.

Chevron U.S.A. has acquired 125,000 acres in Northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas that contain a high amount of lithium. Photo via Getty Images.

Chevron enters lithium market with Texas land acquisition

to market

Chevron U.S.A., a subsidiary of Houston-based energy company Chevron, has taken its first big step toward establishing a commercial-scale lithium business.

Chevron acquired leaseholds totaling about 125,000 acres in Northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas from TerraVolta Resources and East Texas Natural Resources. The acreage contains a high amount of lithium, which Chevron plans to extract from brines produced from the subsurface.

Lithium-ion batteries are used in an array of technologies, such as smartwatches, e-bikes, pacemakers, and batteries for electric vehicles, according to Chevron. The International Energy Agency estimates lithium demand could grow more than 400 percent by 2040.

“This acquisition represents a strategic investment to support energy manufacturing and expand U.S.-based critical mineral supplies,” Jeff Gustavson, president of Chevron New Energies, said in a news release. “Establishing domestic and resilient lithium supply chains is essential not only to maintaining U.S. energy leadership but also to meeting the growing demand from customers.”

Rania Yacoub, corporate business development manager at Chevron New Energies, said that amid heightening demand, lithium is “one of the world’s most sought-after natural resources.”

“Chevron is looking to help meet that demand and drive U.S. energy competitiveness by sourcing lithium domestically,” Yacoub said.

Texas falls among the middle of the pack when it comes to EV adoption, according to a new report. Photo via Unsplash

Texas drivers continue to pump the brakes on EVs, shows new report

EV adoption

Even though Texas is home to Tesla, a major manufacturer of electric vehicles, motorists in the Lone Star State aren’t in the fast lane when it comes to getting behind the wheel of an EV.

U.S. Department of Energy data compiled by Visual Capitalist shows Texas has 689.9 EV registrations per 100,000 people, putting it in 20th place for EV adoption among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. A report released in 2023 by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University found that a little over 5 percent of Texans drove EVs.

California leads all states for EV adoption, with 3,025.6 registrations per 100,000 people, according to Visual Capitalist. In second place is Washington, with an EV adoption rate of 1,805.4 per 100,000.

A recent survey by AAA revealed lingering reluctance among Americans to drive all-electric vehicles.

In the survey, just 16 percent of U.S. adults reported being “very likely” or “likely” to buy an all-electric vehicle as their next car. That’s the lowest level of interest in EVs recorded by AAA since 1999. The share of consumers indicating they’d be “very unlikely” or “unlikely” to buy an EV rose to 63 percent, the highest level since 2022.

Factors cited by EV critics included:

  • High cost to repair batteries (62 percent).
  • High purchase price (59 percent).
  • Ineffective transportation for long-distance travel (57 percent).
  • Lack of convenient public charging stations (56 percent).
  • Fear of battery running out of power while driving (55 percent).

“Since AAA began tracking consumer interest in fully electric vehicles, we’ve observed fluctuations in enthusiasm,” said Doug Shupe, corporate communications manager for AAA Texas. “While automakers continue investing in electrification and expanding EV offerings, many drivers still express hesitation — often tied to concerns about cost, range, and charging infrastructure.”

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Houston scientists develop 'recharge-to-recycle' reactor for lithium-ion batteries

reduce, recharge, recycle

Engineers at Rice University have developed a cleaner, innovative process to turn end-of-life lithium-ion battery waste into new lithium feedstock.

The findings, recently published in the journal Joule, demonstrate how the team’s new “recharge-to-recycle” reactor recharges the battery’s waste cathode materials to coax out lithium ions into water. The team was then able to form high-purity lithium hydroxide, which was clean enough to feed directly back into battery manufacturing.

The study has major implications for the electric vehicle sector, which significantly contributes to the waste stream from end-of-life battery packs. Additionally, lithium tends to be expensive to mine and refine, and current recycling methods are energy- and chemical-intensive.

“Directly producing high-purity lithium hydroxide shortens the path back into new batteries,” Haotian Wang, associate professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering, co-corresponding author of the study and co-founder of Solidec, said in a news release. “That means fewer processing steps, lower waste and a more resilient supply chain.”

Sibani Lisa Biswal, chair of Rice’s Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and the William M. McCardell Professor in Chemical Engineering, also served as co-corresponding author on the study.

“We asked a basic question: If charging a battery pulls lithium out of a cathode, why not use that same reaction to recycle?” Biswal added in the release. “By pairing that chemistry with a compact electrochemical reactor, we can separate lithium cleanly and produce the exact salt manufacturers want.”

The new process also showed scalability, according to Rice. The engineers scaled the device to 20 square centimeters, then ran a 1,000-hour stability test and processed 57 grams of industrial black mass supplied by industry partner Houston-based TotalEnergies. The results produced lithium hydroxide that was more than 99 percent pure. It also maintained an average lithium recovery rate of nearly 90 percent over the 1,000-hour test, showing its durability. The process also worked across multiple battery chemistries, including lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese oxide and nickel-manganese-cobalt variants.

Looking ahead, the team plans to scale the process and consider ways it can sustain high efficiency for greater lithium hydroxide concentrations.

“We’ve made lithium extraction cleaner and simpler,” Biswal added in the release. “Now we see the next bottleneck clearly. Tackle concentration, and you unlock even better sustainability.

Houston grid's $2.9 billion upgrade tops energy news to know

Trending Topics

Editor's note: It's time to look back at the top energy transition news in recent weeks. Here are the five most-read EnergyCapitalHTX stories from November 16-30:

1. CenterPoint gets go-ahead for $2.9B upgrade of Houston grid

CenterPoint customers in the Houston area will pay an extra $1 a month to cover costs of the recently approved $2.9 billion resiliency plan starting next year. Photo via centerpointenergy.com

Texas utility regulators have given the green light for Houston-based CenterPoint Energy to spend $2.9 billion on strengthening its Houston-area electric grid to better withstand extreme weather. The cost of the plan is nearly $3 billion below what CenterPoint initially proposed to the Public Utility Commission of Texas. Continue reading.

2. Houston company wins contract to operate South Texas wind farm

Houston-based CAMS will operate the Mesteño Wind Project, which is home to one of the tallest wind turbine installations in the U.S. Photo via Unsplash.

Houston-based Consolidated Asset Management Services (CAMS), which provides services for owners of energy infrastructure, has added the owner of a South Texas wind power project to its customer list. The new customer, InfraRed Capital Partners, owns the 202-megawatt Mesteño Wind Project in the Rio Grande Valley. Continue reading.

3. Google's $40B investment in Texas data centers includes energy infrastructure

Google is investing in Texas. Courtesy of Google

Google is investing a huge chunk of money in Texas: According to a release, the company will invest $40 billion on cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, with the development of new data centers in Armstrong and Haskell counties. The company announced its intentions at a meeting on November 14 attended by federal, state, and local leaders including Gov. Greg Abbott who called it "a Texas-sized investment." Continue reading.

4. Chevron and ExxonMobil feed the need for gas-powered data centers

Chevron plans to launch its first AI data center power project in West Texas in 2027. Photo via Chevron.com

Two of the Houston area’s oil and gas goliaths, Chevron and ExxonMobil, are duking it out in the emerging market for natural gas-powered data centers—centers that would ease the burden on electric grids. Chevron said it’s negotiating with an unnamed company to supply natural gas-generated power for the data center industry, whose energy consumption is soaring mostly due to AI. Continue reading.

5. Solidec partners with Australian company for clean hydrogen peroxide pilot​

Houston-based Solidec has partnered with Lynas Rare Earth on a clean hydrogen peroxide production pilot in Australia. Photo courtesy Greentown Labs.

Solidec has partnered with Australia-based Lynas Rare Earth, an environmentally responsible producer of rare earth oxides and materials, to reduce emissions from hydrogen peroxide production. The partnership marks a milestone for the Houston-based clean chemical manufacturing startup, as it would allow the company to accelerate the commercialization of its hydrogen peroxide generation technology. Continue reading.

DOE taps Texas companies for $56M in Strategic Petroleum Reserve deliveries

reserve refill

Two companies with ties to the Houston area have been awarded federal contracts totaling nearly $55.8 million to supply about 1 million barrels of crude oil for the nation’s depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Houston-based Trafigura Trading will provide two-thirds of the oil, and Dallas-based Energy Transfer Crude Marketing will provide the remaining one-third. Energy Transfer, the parent company of Energy Transfer Crude Marketing, operates a 330-acre oil terminal at the Houston Ship Channel.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), which awarded the contracts, said Trafigura and Energy Transfer will deliver the crude oil from Dec. 1 through Jan. 31 to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve’s Bryan Mound storage site near Freeport.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the world’s largest emergency supply of crude oil, can hold up to 714 million barrels of crude oil across 61 underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf Coast. The reserve currently contains 410 million barrels of crude oil. During the pandemic, the Biden administration ordered a 180 million-barrel drawdown from the reserve to help combat high gas prices triggered by Russia’s war with Ukraine.

The four strategic reserve sites are connected to 24 Gulf Coast refineries, and another six refineries in Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio.

“Awarding these contracts marks another step in the important process of refilling this national security asset,” U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said.

In March, Wright estimated it would take $20 billion and many years to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its maximum capacity, according to Reuters

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