lasting impact
New study shows Houston is still feeling effects of 2014-16 oil crash
A new study from Rice’s Kinder Institute shows that Houston is still feeling the economic effects of the 2014-2016 oil crash, more than a decade later.
Though Houston, nicknamed the Energy Capital of the World, has continued to grow over the time period, the city has still fallen behind other comparable metropolitan areas in earnings and job creation, according to the research. The report is one part of a three-part series that will take a look at regional economic mobility and suggest ideas to expand opportunity.
“When you look at what’s happened in other locations, we’re losing ground,” Flávio Cunha, director of the Center for Economic Mobility at Rice’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research, said in a release. “Our economy is growing, but it’s no longer growing at the rate it used to.”
Global oil prices fell 70 percent between 2014 and 2016, the report said, marking one of the three largest declines since World War II and the longest-lasting downturn since 1986. The report excluded pandemic-related gaps, and it mentions 2017’s Hurricane Harvey as a possible indicator that economic growth stalled after the 2014-2016 oil price crash recovery.
To understand the long-term impact of the crash, researchers compared Houston’s economic performance with 54 metropolitan areas like San Antonio, Pittsburgh and others with less dependence on the energy industry.
Some of the key findings in the report included:
- Job creation: In 2019, Houston had approximately 240,000 fewer private-sector jobs than similar cities. Employment was 15 percent lower in goods-producing industries and 4 percent lower in the services industries than the control group.
- Income shifts: Income per resident was 13 percent lower compared to the peer group. Workers who remained employed earned 10 percent less between 2015 and 2019 than in other metros. The 13 percent drop in income equates to roughly $76 billion a year in forgone income, or $10,700 per resident per year in 2025 dollars. The decline was a trend across every age group, education level and sex.
- Population changes: The rate of people moving to Houston slowed, rather than a surge of people leaving.
- Hiring changes: Hiring fell sharply for young workers ages 19-24.
Cunha says the most surprising finding was that these trends persisted a decade later. According to the report, by 2024, Houston’s wages and income per resident remained about a fifth and a sixth below those in peer cities, and jobs per resident had continued to lose ground.
“What really surprises me is not that there was this change. It’s that this change has been long-lasting,” he added. “We followed it up to 2024, and we still don’t detect that the economy has recovered from that one shock.”
Read the full report here.
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