GUEST COLUMN

Expert shares 5 key factors for evolving the energy transition in Texas

This expert acknowledges the energy transition is not happening overnight — but it's never too early for Texans looking to get in on the ground floor. Photo via Shutterstock

Humanity faces an inflection point in the coming decade. In order for the world’s population to survive and, ultimately, prosper, especially the population of developing countries such as India, China, and Brazil, significant investment in all forms of energy will be needed. Texas-based energy companies will play a crucial role in developing, advancing and supplying environmentally sensitive forms of energy to meet the world’s insatiable demand.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global energy consumption is expected to increase by a staggering 50 percent in the next 25 years. Fueled by rapid economic and population growth, this spike in demand is particularly focused within developing Asian countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Taking steps toward energy evolution today is crucial not only for economic progress but also to address the long-term impact of climate change. Research compiled by JLL highlights five key factors to consider.

1. Embracing a gradual evolution

Historically, energy transitions require significant time to be fully realized, often spanning over 50 years. Coal took more than 60 years to grow from a mere 5 percent to a dominant 50 percent share of the world's primary energy supply. Similarly, natural gas took nearly 70 years to increase its market share from 1 percent to 20 percent in the United States. Widespread commercialization of nuclear energy spans as much as 80 years, from the point of initial discovery and application. Major pendulum swings do not occur overnight; the next energy evolution will require adaptability and resilience.

2. Increase in global energy consumption

As non-OECD countries experience periods of economic growth, particularly driven by a growth of the manufacturing sector, these countries’ energy consumption naturally follows suit. Approximately 2.5 billion people live in these regions, which today heavily rely on non-renewable sources to meet basic energy needs.

As OECD countries continue to introduce sustainable technologies like battery power and other alternatives at scale, a transfer of more efficient and eco-friendly sources and technologies to developing communities must occur to reduce the world’s overall carbon footprint.

3. Surging investment in global energy transition

Investments in the global energy transition surpassed $1 trillion in 2022 – a stunning year-over-year increase of 31 percent. These investments are propelling innovative, sustainable solutions and driving the research and development necessary for a more environmentally conscious energy landscape.

4. Diversification and revised renewables forecast

Countries are actively diversifying their energy generation away from natural gas, specifically as a response to the energy crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This push towards sustainable alternatives has received further validation with the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently revising its five-year renewables forecast, emphasizing a significant 28.4 percent increase. This revision serves as a testament to the increasing significance of sustainable energy sources in ensuring a resilient energy future.

5. United States energy production

Even with the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), the United States will maintain its production and export of oil, natural gas, and derivatives. While recognizing the continued role of these traditional energy sources in meeting global energy demands, the United States also acknowledges the imperative of transitioning towards sustainable energy sources. Encouraging companies to embrace alternative energy solutions in line with this transition is now big business, as significant incentives are being provided at federal and state levels.

And what about here in Texas?

In this critical era of global energy evolution, Texas has the opportunity to take center stage, holding the keys not only to its own future but also to those far beyond the state’s borders. With abundant wind power production, vast solar energy potential, a favorable regulatory environment, and attractive tax incentives, Texas is well positioned to be a leader in innovation, research, and production of alternative energy sources. Combined with the presence of many of the country’s leading energy companies, Texas must be a powerhouse for driving a sustainable energy transition on a large scale.

Transforming the global energy landscape will not be accomplished overnight. It requires the collective efforts of governments, industries, companies, and individuals working together towards a common goal. Texas and Texans can serve as a beacon of inspiration, leading the charge in alternative energy adoption and investing today in the next century of energy production and consumption. Ultimately, our example should be one the world can follow.

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Louis Rosenthal is executive managing director at JLL and the global leader of the company's energy and renewables practice group.

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A View From HETI

First responders need to know exactly which hazardous materials are on a train so they can look it up in the government's official guidebook and make sure they have the right protective gear and firefighting tools. Photo by Stefan Gabriel Naghi/Pexels

A new federal rule finalized Monday aims to ensure first responders can find out what hazardous chemicals are on a train almost immediately after a derailment so they can respond appropriately. Texas, a major hub for chemical development, will be affected by the ruling.

Too often in past disasters like last year's fiery Norfolk Southern derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, firefighters risked their lives trying to extinguish a blaze without knowing the right way to respond. The local fire chief in charge of the response said it took him 45 minutes to learn exactly what was in the 11 burning tank cars on the train, but some firefighters from neighboring departments that came to help said they didn't know what they were dealing with until two hours after the February 3, 2023, crash.

First responders need to know exactly which hazardous materials are on a train so they can look it up in the government's official guidebook and make sure they have the right protective gear and firefighting tools, said Tristan Brown, deputy administrator of the Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration agency that proposed the rule.

Knowing what chemical is involved and how much of it is aboard also affects how big of an evacuation zone might be required to protect the public.

“There are so many different types of hazardous materials being transported across the country on any given day — one in 10 goods that move across the United States — and each one, poses unique risks and hazards, certainly to the folks who are running towards a fire,” Brown said. “But certainly as well for anybody who may be living or working in that vicinity.”

The rule was published just one day ahead of the National Transportation Safety Board's final hearing on the East Palestine derailment, where they will discuss exactly what caused that crash and recommend steps to prevent similar disasters.

Train crews have long carried lists of their cargo in the cabs of their locomotives, but in the middle of the chaos after a derailment those engineers and conductors, who might have moved their locomotives miles down the track, can't always be found right away.

That's part of why the largest freight railroads developed an app called AskRail roughly a decade ago that enables firefighters to quickly look up the details of what each train carries. But not every firefighter had the app, and cell phones don't always have a signal strong enough to work in a disaster.

Regulators want the railroads to continue expanding access to that app, including to 911 centers, so information reaches first responders sooner. The railroads have been expanding access over the past year. The Association of American Railroads trade group estimates some 2.3 million first responders now have access to that information as a result of the effort to expand into dispatch centers.

The six biggest railroads also make train cargo information immediately available through the chemical industry's hazardous materials hotlines in the U.S. and Canada known as the CHEMTREC and CANUTEC, emergency call centers.

Norfolk Southern said that in addition to AskRail it is working with a different program called RapidSOS that will allow the railroad to directly send information about its trains to first responders after a derailment — instead of forcing them to look up the details in AskRail. The railroad said its work fits well with the new rule.

But the new federal rule also applies to the hundreds of smaller railroads that aren't involved in AskRail. Even railroads that only have one or two employees now must have a plan to get the crucial details of their cargo to the local fire department quickly, even if its as simple as having the fire chief's cell phone number at the ready. Railroads also must test their plan at least once a year.

“In a hazmat incident, firefighters and first responders arriving on scene need to know what kind of hazardous materials are present so they can protect themselves and their communities,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said.

It's not clear how this rule might have changed the outcome in East Palestine, but more information could have helped responding firefighters.

The derailment prompted a nationwide reckoning over railroad safety and prompted Congress to propose changes and regulators like Buttigieg to urge railroads to do more to prevent derailments.

The Federal Railroad Administration has issued various advisories about different aspects of railroad operations, but the reforms in Congress have stalled because Republicans wanted to wait for the final NTSB report and regulators have had only limited success making changes.

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