Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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Pathway Energy has announced a major sustainable aviation fuel project in Port Arthur, Texas. Rendering courtesy of Pathway Energy

Houston company's $2B carbon-negative fuel project to rise in Southeast Texas

eyes on SAF

Houston developer of ultra carbon-negative fuels projects Pathway Energy announced a series of commercial-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facilities with the first being based in Port Arthur, Texas.

The project, estimated to be valued at $2 billion, will be one of the largest decarbonization projects in the world.

Pathway plans to bring commercial SAF to market with its years of experience in waste and biomass conversion processes and technologies that include biomass gasification, Fischer-Tropsch, biomass power generation, and complex biorefinery and industrial processes. Pathway will be working with companies like Sumitomo SHI FW, who will supply the project with gasification process technology packages and power production. Pathway Energy also announced a strategic partnership with Drax Global, which is a biomass feedstock provider.

"We are happy to debut with the best technology and industrial partners in the industry on a market opportunity with global significance," Steve Roberts, CEO of Pathway Energy, says in a news release. "With the ultra negative carbon intensity achieved through our process, Pathway Energy is poised to lead a global market for ultra negative fuels, driving large scale emission reductions across the aviation sector."

In the Port Arthur project, Pathway plans to leverage sustainable biomass feedstock and access to geological storage to sequester carbon and to produce its ultra carbon-negative SAF. The site location already is equipped with industrial scale import and export logistics including established truck, rail, barge, and pipeline access. Pathway will develop a platform of commercial-scale facilities in areas with a high potential for geological storage to utilize BECCS (Biomass Energy Carbon Capture and Storage) and gasification technology to capture and store carbon, according to a news release.

The market for sustainable aviation fuel uses imported, used cooking oil (UCO HEFA). UCO HEFA SAF can’t materially decarbonize aviation since its constrained supply and positive carbon intensity score. Pathway’s ultra carbon-negative fuel is synthetic drop-in jet fuel that achieves a 550% reduction of carbon compared to traditional jet fuel, which is an industry first. Pathway believes this can abate as much as 6,000 flights a year.

Pathway uses an ultra-negative SAF, which carriers require less SAF to achieve emissions reduction as HEFA, which translates to emissions reduction, and lower cost of operations. The aviation industry can potentially achieve up to 8 times more emissions reductions compared to HEFA SAF.

“We saw the opportunity to provide carriers a pathway to completely decarbonize their flights with our net zero blended fuel," Joshua Pearson, Pathway CTO, adds. "This is a new type of SAF production that is 7-9 (times) more carbon negative than the SAF on the market today and represents the most sustainable, cost efficient and de-risked path to decarbonize global aviation.”

GGS Energy and Vast Renewables Limited announced their agreement to work together on Project Bravo, Vast’s first deployment in the U.S. Photo via vast.energy

Australian renewable energy company taps Houston partner for first US project

teaming up

Houston-based project developer focused on energy transition has signed a new agreement to work on a synthetic fuels project in the Southwest United States.

GGS Energy and Australian company, Vast Renewables Limited, a renewable energy company specializing in concentrated solar thermal power systems, announced their agreement to work together on Project Bravo, Vast’s first deployment in the U.S. The company's CSP v3.0 technology will be deployed to create carbon-free heat and electricity for a co-located refinery that will generate green methanol and/or electrically powered sustainable aviation fuel, or e-SAF.

“CSP has the potential to unlock low-cost green fuel production in the U.S., and it can play a significant role in helping decarbonise shipping and aviation," Craig Wood, CEO of Vast, says in a news release. "We are delighted to have GGS Energy as a development partner to advance our plans in the U.S., which is a key market for Vast’s technology.”

Vast is currently building Solar Methanol 1, a CSP-powered green methanol reference plant that will be located in Australia at the Port Augusta Green Energy Hub. Project Bravo will build upon that plant here in the U.S. The location is still to be decided but will be in the Southwestern part of the country.

GGS Energy, which is founded in 2020 as a subsidiary of Glacier Global Partners that was formed in 2020, has infrastructure development experience across technologies, including utility scale CSP, coal-to-liquids projects, PV solar, wind, and more.

“GGS Energy is excited to partner with Vast and work to develop Project Bravo," Tommy Soriero from GGS Energy says in the release. "This collaboration marks a significant step toward a sustainable future, harnessing advanced technology to produce low-cost green fuels. We are eager to combine our expertise and resources to ensure the success and impact of future innovative projects starting with Project Bravo.”

Unifuel’s technology consists of a series of chemical reactions that convert various sustainable materials into sustainable aviation fuels. Photo via Unifuel

California SAF co. raises $3M, plans to open Houston lab

moving in

Armed with a fresh $3 million round of seed funding, Los Altos, California-based Universal Fuel Technologies is establishing a lab in Houston for production of sustainable aviation fuel samples.

TO VC led the round, with participation from Alchemist Accelerator, Claire Technologies, and World Star Aviation.

Unifuel’s Flexiforming technology consists of a series of chemical reactions that convert various sustainable materials — such as ethanol, methanol, and liquified petroleum gas — into high-quality SAF that’s similar in chemical composition to traditional jet fuel.

“Today’s SAF production is challenged by feedstock limitations and expense, which are problems Unifuel’s Flexiforming solves,” Joshua Phitoussi, managing partner at TO VC, says in a news release. “Unifuel has engineered a more efficient SAF production method that dramatically cuts costs while getting the most out of limited resources.”

One of the key benefits of Flexiforming is that it creates the molecules needed for jet engines and other aircraft equipment to run smoothly. The addition of Flexiforming’s SAF allows for a fully synthetic jet fuel that airlines would be able to use without blending with conventional jet fuel once ASTM International (formerly the American Society of Testing and Materials) approves 100% SAF.

“Sustainable aviation depends upon developing SAF that is not only cost-effective but able to work within the aviation industry as it stands today,” says Alexei Beltyukov, CEO of Universal Fuel Technologies. “With Flexiforming, we can give SAF producers the ability to make affordable, high-quality SAF that has the characteristics needed for aircraft performance and the flexibility to scale at their own rate.”

The Carbon to Value Initiative kicks off this week at Greentown Houston. Photo via GreentownLabs.com

9 carbontech startups named to Greentown Labs accelerator program

new cohort

A carbon innovation initiative in collaboration with Greentown Houston has named its new cohort.

The Carbon to Value Initiative (C2V Initiative) — a collaboration between NYU Tandon School of Engineering's Urban Future Lab (UFL), Greentown Labs, and Fraunhofer USA — has named nine startup participants for the fourth year of its carbontech accelerator program.

"Once again, the C2V Initiative has been able to select some of the most promising carbontech startups through a very competitive process with a 7 percent acceptance rate," Frederic Clerc, director of the C2V Initiative and interim managing director of UFL, says in a news release. "The diversity of this cohort, in its technologies, products, geographies, and stages, makes it an amazing snapshot of the rapidly evolving carbontech innovation landscape."

The cohort was selected from over a hundred applications from nearly 30 countries. In the six-month program, the nine companies gain access to the C2V Initiative's Carbontech Leadership Council, an invitation-only group of corporate, nonprofit, and government leaders who provide commercialization opportunities and identify avenues for technology validation, testing, and demonstration.

The year four cohort, according to the release, includes:

Ardent, from New Castle, Delaware, is a process technology company that is developing membrane-based solutions for point-source carbon capture and other chemical separations.
CarbonBlue, from Haifa, Israel, develops a chemical process that mineralizes and extracts CO2 from water, which then reabsorbs more atmospheric CO2.
MacroCycle, from Somerville, Massachusetts, develops a chemical recycling process to turn polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyester-fiber waste into "virgin-grade" plastics.
Maple Materials, from Richmond, California,develops an electrolysis process to convert CO2 into graphite and oxygen.
Oxylus Energy, from New Haven, Connecticut, develops a direct electrochemical process to convert CO2 into fuels and chemical feedstocks, such as methanol.
Phlair, from Munich, Germany, develops a renewable-energy-powered Direct Air Capture (DAC) system using an electrochemical process for acid and base generation.
Secant Fuel, from Montreal, Quebec, Canada, develops a one-step electrocatalytic process that converts flue gas into syngas.
RenewCO 2, from Somerset, New Jersey, is developing an electrochemical process to convert CO2 into fuels and chemicals, such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) or propylene glycol.
Seabound, from London, England, builds carbon-capture equipment for new and existing ships.

"The depth and breadth of carbontech innovations represented in this applicant pool speaks volumes to this growing and dynamic industry around the world," adds Kevin Dutt, Interim CEO of Greentown Labs. "We're eager to support these nine impressive companies as they progress through this program and look forward to seeing how they engage with the CLC now and into the future."

The C2V Initiative will host a public Year 4 kickoff event on Sept. 19 at Greentown Houston and via livestream.

Dr. Nádia Skorupa Parachin has been named Cemvita’s new VP of Industrial Biotechnology. Photo via HETI

Meet Cemvita's new VP of industrial biotechnology

the view from heti

Houston-based biosolutions company Cemvita has announced a new addition to its leadership team that will further advance the company’s mission to transform the sustainable oil industry.

Dr. Nádia Skorupa Parachin has been named Cemvita’s new VP of Industrial Biotechnology. Joining Cemvita from Ginkgo Bioworks in Boston, where she held the role of Senior Director of Principal Organism Engineering, Parachin brings extensive expertise in synthetic biology, bioprocess development and strategic leadership.

Prior to her tenure at Ginkgo Bioworks, she spent nine years as a professor at the Universidade de Brasília and co-founded the Brazilian start-up Integra Bioprocessos, which is dedicated to developing biotechnological pathways that yield high-value products.

Parachin’s addition to the Cemvita team coincides with the company’s intensified focus on commercializing its capability to manufacture bio-oil from carbon waste. Cemvita has recently achieved a major milestone, now producing up to 500 barrels of sustainable oil per day—reaching the target years ahead of the original projection set for 2029. In her role, Parachin will continue their innovative work, advancing microbial productivity efficiency.

“Cemvita has built an incredible waste carbon to oil process by training microbes with peak efficiency,” said Cemvita CEO Moji Karimi in a statement. “Adding Nadia’s experience is the natural next step in commercializing this remarkable science. Her background prepared her to bring the best out of the scientists at the inflection point of commercialization – really bringing things to life.”

Echoing this enthusiasm, Parachin expressed her excitement about her new role at Cemvita.

“I’ve joined Cemvita to lead the team working on developing and improving the technologies for our bio-oil production,” she stated. “It’s a fantastic moment as we’re poised to take our prototyping to the next level, and all under the innovative direction of our co-founder, Tara Karimi. We will be bringing something truly remarkable to market and ensuring its cost effective.”

Parachin’s role comes at a strategic time, following Cemvita’s recent announcement of a significant partnership with United Airlines. Under this agreement, Cemvita will provide United with up to 50 million gallons of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) derived from CO2 annually over the next 20 years. The company’s energy transition subsidiary, Gold H2, has also recently formed a significant partnership with ChampionX. This collaboration aims to advance Gold H2’s technology designed to produce hydrogen from depleted or uneconomical oil reservoirs.

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This article originally ran on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

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Houston renewables developer powers two new California solar parks

now open

EDP Renewables North America LLC, a Houston-based developer, owner, and operator of renewable energy projects, has unveiled a solar energy park in California whose customers are Houston-based Shell Energy North America and the Eureka, California-based Redwood Coast Energy Authority.

Sandrini I & II Solar Energy Park, located near Bakersfield, is capable of supplying 300 megawatts of power. The park was completed in two phases.

“Sandrini I & II represent EDP Renewables’ continued commitment to investing in California and are a direct contribution to California's admirable target of achieving 100 percent clean electricity by 2045,” says Sandhya Ganapathy, CEO of EDP. “The Golden State is known for its leadership in solar energy, and EDP Renewables is elated to meet the growing demand for reliable clean energy sources.”

Shell signed a 15-year deal to buy power from the 200-megawatt Sandrini I, and the Redwood Coast Energy Authority signed a 15-year deal to buy power from the 100-megawatt Sandrini II.

In July, EDP announced the opening of the 210-megawatt Pearl River Solar Park in Mississippi. Earlier in 2024, the company debuted the 175-megawatt Crooked Lake Solar Park in Arkansas and the 74-megawatt Misenheimer Solar Park in North Carolina. Click here to read more.

Houston climatech incubator names new CFO

onboarding

Greentown Labs, a climatech incubator with locations in Houston and Somerville, Massachusetts, has hired Naheed Malik as its chief financial officer. In her new role, she oversees finance, accounting and human resources.

Malik previously worked at American Tower Corp., an owner of wireless communication towers. During her 12-year tenure there, she was vice president of financial planning and analysis, and vice president of corporate finance.

Before American Tower, Malik led financial planning and analysis at Wolters Kluwer Health, and was a management consultant at Kearney and an audit CPA at EY.

Kevin Dutt, Greentown’s interim CEO, says in a news release that Malik’s “deep expertise will be a boon for Greentown as we seek to serve even more climatech startups in our home states of Massachusetts and Texas, and beyond.”

“I am delighted to join Greentown at such an exciting time in its organizational growth,” Malik says. “As a nonprofit that’s deeply dedicated to its mission of supporting climatech innovation, Greentown is poised to build on its impressive track record and expand its impact in the years to come.”

Greentown bills itself as North America’s largest incubator for climatech startups. Today, it’s home to more than 200 startups. Since its founding in 2011, Greentown has nurtured more than 575 startups that have raised over $8.2 billion in funding.

Last year, Greentown’s CEO and president Kevin Knobloch announced that he would be stepping down in July 2024, after less than a year in the role. The incubator. About a month before the announcement, Knobloch reported that Greentown would reduce its staff by 30 percent, eliminating roles in Boston and Houston. He noted changes in leadership, growth of the team and adjustments following the pandemic.

Greentown plans to announce its new permanent CEO by the end of the month.

Being prepared: Has the Texas grid been adequately winterized?

Winter in Texas

Houstonians may feel anxious as the city and state brace for additional freezing temperatures this winter. Every year since 2021’s Winter Storm Uri, Texans wonder whether the grid will keep them safe in the face of another winter weather event. The record-breaking cold temperatures of Uri exposed a crucial vulnerability in the state’s power and water infrastructure.

According to ERCOT’s 6-day supply and demand forecast from January 3, 2025, it expected plenty of generation capacity to meet the needs of Texans during the most recent period of colder weather. So why did the grid fail so spectacularly in 2021?

Demand for electricity surged as millions of people tried to heat their homes.
ERCOT was simply not prepared despite previous winter storms of similar intensity to offer lessons in similarities.
The state was highly dependent on un-winterized natural gas power plants for electricity.
The Texas grid is isolated from other states.
Failures of communication and coordination between ERCOT, state officials, utility companies, gas suppliers, electricity providers, and power plants contributed to the devastating outages.

The domino effect resulted in power outages for millions of Texans, the deaths of hundreds of Texans, billions of dollars in damages, with some households going nearly a week without heat, power, and water. This catastrophe highlighted the need for swift and sweeping upgrades and protections against future extreme weather events.

Texas State Legislature Responds

Texas lawmakers proactively introduced and passed legislation aimed at upgrading the state’s power infrastructure and preventing repeated failures within weeks of the storm. Senate Bill 3 (SB3) measures included:

Requirements to weatherize gas supply chain and pipeline facilities that sell electric energy within ERCOT.
The ability to impose penalties of up to $1 million for violation of these requirements.
Requirement for ERCOT to procure new power sources to ensure grid reliability during extreme heat and extreme cold.
Designation of specific natural gas facilities that are critical for power delivery during energy emergencies.
Development of an alert system that is to be activated when supply may not be able to meet demand.
Requirement for the Public Utility Commission of Texas, or PUCT, to establish an emergency wholesale electricity pricing program.

Texas Weatherization by Natural Gas Plants

In a Railroad Commission of Texas document published May 2024 and geared to gas supply chain and pipeline facilities, dozens of solutions were outlined with weatherization best practices and approaches in an effort to prevent another climate-affected crisis from severe winter weather.

Some solutions included:

Installation of insulation on critical components of a facility.
Construction of permanent or temporary windbreaks, housing, or barriers around critical equipment to reduce the impact of windchill.
Guidelines for the removal of ice and snow from critical equipment.
Instructions for the use of temporary heat systems on localized freezing problems like heating blankets, catalytic heaters, or fuel line heaters.

According to Daniel Cohan, professor of environmental engineering at Rice University, power plants across Texas have installed hundreds of millions of dollars worth of weatherization upgrades to their facilities. In ERCOT’s January 2022 winterization report, it stated that 321 out of 324 electricity generation units and transmission facilities fully passed the new regulations.

Is the Texas Grid Adequately Winterized?

Utilities, power generators, ERCOT, and the PUCT have all made changes to their operations and facilities since 2021 to be better prepared for extreme winter weather. Are these changes enough? Has the Texas grid officially been winterized?

This season, as winter weather tests Texans, residents may potentially experience localized outages. When tree branches cannot support the weight of the ice, they can snap and knock out power lines to neighborhoods across the state. In the instance of a downed power line, we must rely on regional utilities to act quickly to restore power.

The specific legislation enacted by the Texas state government in response to the 2021 disaster addressed to the relevant parties ensures that they have done their part to winterize the Texas grid.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

This article first appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.com.

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