Innovative Houston clean hydrogen company expands to Brazil

on the move

Cemvita aims to capitalize on Brazil’s regulatory framework around biodiesel blending and Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Photo via cemvita.com

Houston biotech company Cemvita has expanded into Brazil. The company officially established a new subsidiary in the country under the same name.

According to an announcement made earlier this month, the expansion aims to capitalize on Brazil’s progressive regulatory framework, including Brazil’s Fuel of the Future Law, which was enacted in 2024. The company said the expansion also aims to coincide with the 2025 COP30, the UN’s climate change conference, which will be hosted in Brazil in November.

Cemvita utilizes synthetic biology to transform carbon emissions into valuable bio-based chemicals.

“For decades Brazil has pioneered the bioeconomy, and now the time has come to create the future of the circular bioeconomy,” Moji Karimi, CEO of Cemvita, said in a news release. “Our vision is to combine the innovation Cemvita is known for with Brazil’s expertise and resources to create an ecosystem where waste becomes opportunity and sustainability drives growth. By joining forces with Brazilian partners, Cemvita aims to build on Brazil’s storied history in the bioeconomy while laying the groundwork for a circular and sustainable future.”

The Fuel of the Future Law mandates an increase in the biodiesel content of diesel fuel, starting from 15 percent in March and increasing to 20 percent by 2030. It also requires the adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and for domestic flights to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1 percent starting in 2027, growing to 10 percent reduction by 2037.

Cemvita agreed to a 20-year contract that specified it would supply up to 50 million gallons of SAF annually to United Airlines in 2023.

"This is all made possible by our innovative technology, which transforms carbon waste into value,” Marcio Da Silva, VP of Innovation, said in a news release. “Unlike traditional methods, it requires neither a large land footprint nor clean freshwater, ensuring minimal environmental impact. At the same time, it produces high-value green chemicals—such as sustainable oils and biofuels—without competing with the critical resources needed for food production."

In 2024, Cemvita became capable of generating 500 barrels per day of sustainable oil from carbon waste at its first commercial plant. As a result, Cemvita quadrupled output at its Houston plant. The company had originally planned to reach this milestone in 2029.

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

Pathway Energy has announced a major sustainable aviation fuel project in Port Arthur, Texas. Rendering courtesy of Pathway Energy

Houston company's $2B carbon-negative fuel project to rise in Southeast Texas

eyes on SAF

Houston developer of ultra carbon-negative fuels projects Pathway Energy announced a series of commercial-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facilities with the first being based in Port Arthur, Texas.

The project, estimated to be valued at $2 billion, will be one of the largest decarbonization projects in the world.

Pathway plans to bring commercial SAF to market with its years of experience in waste and biomass conversion processes and technologies that include biomass gasification, Fischer-Tropsch, biomass power generation, and complex biorefinery and industrial processes. Pathway will be working with companies like Sumitomo SHI FW, who will supply the project with gasification process technology packages and power production. Pathway Energy also announced a strategic partnership with Drax Global, which is a biomass feedstock provider.

"We are happy to debut with the best technology and industrial partners in the industry on a market opportunity with global significance," Steve Roberts, CEO of Pathway Energy, says in a news release. "With the ultra negative carbon intensity achieved through our process, Pathway Energy is poised to lead a global market for ultra negative fuels, driving large scale emission reductions across the aviation sector."

In the Port Arthur project, Pathway plans to leverage sustainable biomass feedstock and access to geological storage to sequester carbon and to produce its ultra carbon-negative SAF. The site location already is equipped with industrial scale import and export logistics including established truck, rail, barge, and pipeline access. Pathway will develop a platform of commercial-scale facilities in areas with a high potential for geological storage to utilize BECCS (Biomass Energy Carbon Capture and Storage) and gasification technology to capture and store carbon, according to a news release.

The market for sustainable aviation fuel uses imported, used cooking oil (UCO HEFA). UCO HEFA SAF can’t materially decarbonize aviation since its constrained supply and positive carbon intensity score. Pathway’s ultra carbon-negative fuel is synthetic drop-in jet fuel that achieves a 550% reduction of carbon compared to traditional jet fuel, which is an industry first. Pathway believes this can abate as much as 6,000 flights a year.

Pathway uses an ultra-negative SAF, which carriers require less SAF to achieve emissions reduction as HEFA, which translates to emissions reduction, and lower cost of operations. The aviation industry can potentially achieve up to 8 times more emissions reductions compared to HEFA SAF.

“We saw the opportunity to provide carriers a pathway to completely decarbonize their flights with our net zero blended fuel," Joshua Pearson, Pathway CTO, adds. "This is a new type of SAF production that is 7-9 (times) more carbon negative than the SAF on the market today and represents the most sustainable, cost efficient and de-risked path to decarbonize global aviation.”

GGS Energy and Vast Renewables Limited announced their agreement to work together on Project Bravo, Vast’s first deployment in the U.S. Photo via vast.energy

Australian renewable energy company taps Houston partner for first US project

teaming up

Houston-based project developer focused on energy transition has signed a new agreement to work on a synthetic fuels project in the Southwest United States.

GGS Energy and Australian company, Vast Renewables Limited, a renewable energy company specializing in concentrated solar thermal power systems, announced their agreement to work together on Project Bravo, Vast’s first deployment in the U.S. The company's CSP v3.0 technology will be deployed to create carbon-free heat and electricity for a co-located refinery that will generate green methanol and/or electrically powered sustainable aviation fuel, or e-SAF.

“CSP has the potential to unlock low-cost green fuel production in the U.S., and it can play a significant role in helping decarbonise shipping and aviation," Craig Wood, CEO of Vast, says in a news release. "We are delighted to have GGS Energy as a development partner to advance our plans in the U.S., which is a key market for Vast’s technology.”

Vast is currently building Solar Methanol 1, a CSP-powered green methanol reference plant that will be located in Australia at the Port Augusta Green Energy Hub. Project Bravo will build upon that plant here in the U.S. The location is still to be decided but will be in the Southwestern part of the country.

GGS Energy, which is founded in 2020 as a subsidiary of Glacier Global Partners that was formed in 2020, has infrastructure development experience across technologies, including utility scale CSP, coal-to-liquids projects, PV solar, wind, and more.

“GGS Energy is excited to partner with Vast and work to develop Project Bravo," Tommy Soriero from GGS Energy says in the release. "This collaboration marks a significant step toward a sustainable future, harnessing advanced technology to produce low-cost green fuels. We are eager to combine our expertise and resources to ensure the success and impact of future innovative projects starting with Project Bravo.”

Unifuel’s technology consists of a series of chemical reactions that convert various sustainable materials into sustainable aviation fuels. Photo via Unifuel

California SAF co. raises $3M, plans to open Houston lab

moving in

Armed with a fresh $3 million round of seed funding, Los Altos, California-based Universal Fuel Technologies is establishing a lab in Houston for production of sustainable aviation fuel samples.

TO VC led the round, with participation from Alchemist Accelerator, Claire Technologies, and World Star Aviation.

Unifuel’s Flexiforming technology consists of a series of chemical reactions that convert various sustainable materials — such as ethanol, methanol, and liquified petroleum gas — into high-quality SAF that’s similar in chemical composition to traditional jet fuel.

“Today’s SAF production is challenged by feedstock limitations and expense, which are problems Unifuel’s Flexiforming solves,” Joshua Phitoussi, managing partner at TO VC, says in a news release. “Unifuel has engineered a more efficient SAF production method that dramatically cuts costs while getting the most out of limited resources.”

One of the key benefits of Flexiforming is that it creates the molecules needed for jet engines and other aircraft equipment to run smoothly. The addition of Flexiforming’s SAF allows for a fully synthetic jet fuel that airlines would be able to use without blending with conventional jet fuel once ASTM International (formerly the American Society of Testing and Materials) approves 100% SAF.

“Sustainable aviation depends upon developing SAF that is not only cost-effective but able to work within the aviation industry as it stands today,” says Alexei Beltyukov, CEO of Universal Fuel Technologies. “With Flexiforming, we can give SAF producers the ability to make affordable, high-quality SAF that has the characteristics needed for aircraft performance and the flexibility to scale at their own rate.”

The Carbon to Value Initiative kicks off this week at Greentown Houston. Photo via GreentownLabs.com

9 carbontech startups named to Greentown Labs accelerator program

new cohort

A carbon innovation initiative in collaboration with Greentown Houston has named its new cohort.

The Carbon to Value Initiative (C2V Initiative) — a collaboration between NYU Tandon School of Engineering's Urban Future Lab (UFL), Greentown Labs, and Fraunhofer USA — has named nine startup participants for the fourth year of its carbontech accelerator program.

"Once again, the C2V Initiative has been able to select some of the most promising carbontech startups through a very competitive process with a 7 percent acceptance rate," Frederic Clerc, director of the C2V Initiative and interim managing director of UFL, says in a news release. "The diversity of this cohort, in its technologies, products, geographies, and stages, makes it an amazing snapshot of the rapidly evolving carbontech innovation landscape."

The cohort was selected from over a hundred applications from nearly 30 countries. In the six-month program, the nine companies gain access to the C2V Initiative's Carbontech Leadership Council, an invitation-only group of corporate, nonprofit, and government leaders who provide commercialization opportunities and identify avenues for technology validation, testing, and demonstration.

The year four cohort, according to the release, includes:

Ardent, from New Castle, Delaware, is a process technology company that is developing membrane-based solutions for point-source carbon capture and other chemical separations.
CarbonBlue, from Haifa, Israel, develops a chemical process that mineralizes and extracts CO2 from water, which then reabsorbs more atmospheric CO2.
MacroCycle, from Somerville, Massachusetts, develops a chemical recycling process to turn polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyester-fiber waste into "virgin-grade" plastics.
Maple Materials, from Richmond, California,develops an electrolysis process to convert CO2 into graphite and oxygen.
Oxylus Energy, from New Haven, Connecticut, develops a direct electrochemical process to convert CO2 into fuels and chemical feedstocks, such as methanol.
Phlair, from Munich, Germany, develops a renewable-energy-powered Direct Air Capture (DAC) system using an electrochemical process for acid and base generation.
Secant Fuel, from Montreal, Quebec, Canada, develops a one-step electrocatalytic process that converts flue gas into syngas.
RenewCO 2, from Somerset, New Jersey, is developing an electrochemical process to convert CO2 into fuels and chemicals, such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) or propylene glycol.
Seabound, from London, England, builds carbon-capture equipment for new and existing ships.

"The depth and breadth of carbontech innovations represented in this applicant pool speaks volumes to this growing and dynamic industry around the world," adds Kevin Dutt, Interim CEO of Greentown Labs. "We're eager to support these nine impressive companies as they progress through this program and look forward to seeing how they engage with the CLC now and into the future."

The C2V Initiative will host a public Year 4 kickoff event on Sept. 19 at Greentown Houston and via livestream.

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Houston companies scoop up $31 million in funds from DOE, EPA methane emissions program

fresh funds

The U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced the selection of seven projects from Houston companies to receive funding through the Methane Emissions Reduction Program.

The projects are among 43 others nationwide, including 12 from Texas, that reduce, monitor, measure, and quantify methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. The DOE and EPA awarded $850 million in total through the program.

The Houston companies picked up $31.7 million in federal funding through the program in addition to more than $9.5 million in non-federal dollars.

“I’m excited about the opportunities these will create internally but even more so the creation of jobs and training opportunities for the communities in which we work,” Scott McCurdy, Encino Environmental Services CEO, said in a news release. His company received awards for two projects.

“These projects will allow us to further support and strengthen the U.S. Energy industry’s ability to deliver clean, reliable, and affordable energy globally,” he added.

The Houston-area awards included:

DaphneTech USA LLC

Total funding: $5.8 million (approximately $4.5 million in federal, $1.3 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Daphne and Williams Methane Slip Abatement Plasma-Catalyst Scale-Up project. Daphne will study how its SlipPure technology, a novel exhaust gas cleaning system that abates methane and exhaust gas pollution from natural gas-fueled engines, can be economically viable across multiple engine types and operating conditions.

Baker Hughes Energy Transition LLC

Total funding: $7.47 million (approximately $6 million in federal, $1.5 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Advancing Low Cost CH4 Emissions Reduction from Flares through Large Scale Deployment of Retrofittable and Adaptive Technology project. The project aims to develop a scalable, integrated methane emissions reduction system for flares based on optical gas imaging and estimation algorithms.

Encino Environmental Services

Total funding: $15.17 million (approximately $11 million in federal, $4.17 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for two projects. The Advanced Methane Reduction System: Integrating Infrared and Visual Imaging to Assess Net Heating Value at the Combustion Zone and Determine Combustion Efficiency to Enhance Flaring Performance project aims to develop and deploy an advanced continuous emissions monitoring system. It’s Advancing Methane Emissions Reduction through Innovative Technology project will develop and deploy a technology using sensors and composite materials to address emissions originating in storage tanks.

Envana Software Solutions

Total funding: $5.26 million (approximately $4.2 million in federal, $1 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Leak Detection and Reduction Software to Identify Methane Emissions and Trigger Mitigation at Oil and Gas Production Facilities Based on SCADA Data project. It aims to improve its Recon software for monitoring methane emissions and develop partnerships with local universities and organizations.

Capwell Services Inc.

Total funding: $4.19 million (approximately $3.3 million in federal, $837,000 in non-federal)

The award was granted for its Methane Emissions Abatement Technology for Low-Flow and Intermittent Emission Sources project. It aims to to deploy and field-test a methane abatement unit and improve air quality and health outcomes for communities near production facilities and establish field technician internships for local residents.

Blue Sky Measurements

Total funding: $3.41 million (approximately $2.7 million in federal, $683,000 in non-federal)

The award was granted for its Field Validation of Novel Fixed Position Optical Sensor for Fugitive Methane Emission Detection Quantification and Location with Real-Time Notification for Rapid Mitigation project. It aims to field test an optical sensing technology at six well sites in the Permian Basin.

Southern Methodist University, The University of Texas at Austin, Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station and Hyliion Inc. were other Texas-based organizations to earn awards. See the full list of projects here.

Texas university's 'WaterHub' will dramatically reduce water usage by 40%

Sustainable Move

A major advancement in sustainability is coming to one Texas university. A new UT WaterHub at the University of Texas at Austin will be the largest facility of its kind in the U.S. and will transform how the university manages its water resources.

It's designed to work with natural processes instead of against them for water savings of an estimated 40 percent. It's slated for completion in late 2027.

The university has had an active water recovery program since the 1980s. Still, water is becoming an increasing concern in Austin. According to Texas Living Waters, a coalition of conservation groups, Texas loses enough water annually to fill Lady Bird Lake roughly 89 times over.

As Austin continues to expand and face water shortages, the region's water supply faces increased pressure. The UT WaterHub plans to address this challenge by recycling water for campus energy operations, helping preserve water resources for both the university and local communities.

The 9,600-square-foot water treatment facility will use an innovative filtration approach. To reduce reliance on expensive machinery and chemicals, the system uses plants to naturally filter water and gravity to pull it in the direction it needs to go. Used water will be gathered from a new collection point near the Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium and transported to the WaterHub, located in the heart of the engineering district. The facility's design includes a greenhouse viewable to the public, serving as an interactive learning space.

Beyond water conservation, the facility is designed to protect the university against extreme weather events like winter storms. This new initiative will create a reliable backup water supply while decreasing university water usage, and will even reduce wastewater sent to the city by up to 70 percent.

H2O Innovation, UT’s collaborator in this project, specializes in water solutions, helping organizations manage their water efficiently.

"By combining cutting-edge technology with our innovative financing approach, we’re making it easier for organizations to adopt sustainable water practices that benefit both their bottom line and the environment, paving a step forward in water positivity,” said H2O Innovation president and CEO Frédéric Dugré in a press release.

The university expects significant cost savings with this project, since it won't have to spend as much on buying water from the city or paying fees to dispose of used water. Over the next several years, this could add up to millions of dollars.

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A version of this story originally appeared on our sister site, CultureMap Austin.

Report: Texas solar power, battery storage helped stabilize grid in summer 2024, but challenges remain

by the numbers

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that solar power and battery storage capacity helped stabilize Texas’ electric grid last summer.

Between June 1 and Aug. 31, solar power met nearly 25 percent of midday electricity demand within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid. Rising solar and battery output in ERCOT assisted Texans during a summer of triple-digit heat and record load demands, but the report fears that the state’s power load will be “pushed to its limits” soon.

The report examined how the grid performed during more demanding hours. At peak times, between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. in the summer of 2024, solar output averaged nearly 17,000 megawatts compared with 12,000 megawatts during those hours in the previous year. Between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m., discharge from battery facilities averaged 714 megawatts in 2024 after averaging 238 megawatts for those hours in 2023. Solar and battery output have continued to grow since then, according to the report.

“Batteries made a meaningful contribution to what those shoulder periods look like and how much scarcity we get into during these peak events,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said at a board of directors conference call.

Increases in capacity from solar and battery-storage power in 2024 also eclipsed those of 2023. In 2023 ECOT added 4,570 megawatts of solar, compared to adding nearly 9,700 megawatts in 2024. Growth in battery storage capacity also increased from about 1,500 megawatts added in 2023 to more than 4,000 megawatts added in 2024. Natural gas capacity also saw increases while wind capacity dropped by about 50 percent.

Texas’ installation of utility-scale solar surpassed California’s in the spring of last year, and jumped from 1,900 megawatts in 2019 to over 20,000 megawatts in 2024 with solar meeting about 50 percent of Texas' peak power demand during some days.

While the numbers are encouraging, the report states that there could be future challenges, as more generating capacity will be required due to data center construction and broader electrification trends. The development of generating more capacity will rely on multiple factors like price signals and market conditions that invite more baseload and dispatchable generating capacity, which includes longer-duration batteries, and investment in power purchase agreements and other power arrangements by large-scale consumers, according to the report.

Additionally, peak demand during winter freezes presents challenges not seen in the summer. For example, in colder months, peak electricity demand often occurs in the early morning before solar energy is available, and it predicts that current battery storage may be insufficient to meet the demand. The analysis indicated a 50% chance of rolling outages during a cold snap similar to December 2022 and an 80% chance if conditions mirror the February 2021 deep freeze at the grid’s current state.

The report also claimed that ERCOT’s energy-only market design and new incentive structures, such as the Texas Energy Fund, do not appear to be enough to meet the predicted future magnitude and speed of load growth.

Read the full report here.

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