geothermal predictions

Fervo Energy spotlighted by Bill Gates as geothermal’s global growth driver

Bill Gates says companies like Fervo push the geothermal technology 'to new depths.' Photo via fervoenergy.com

In a new blog post spotlighting Houston-based geothermal power startup Fervo Energy, billionaire Bill Gates — a Fervo investor — predicts geothermal will eventually supply up to 20 percent of the world’s electricity, up from his previous estimate of as much as 5 percent.

Today, geothermal accounts for less than 1 percent of electricity generated around the world, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency forecasts geothermal will represent up to 15 percent of global power by 2050.

“Geothermal power will have a big role to play in our clean energy future, and it’s exciting to see companies like Fervo push the technology to new depths,” Gates wrote.

Gates’ more than $1 billion Breakthrough Energy Ventures fund has contributed to the $982 million pool of money that Fervo has raised since its founding in 2017. Fervo is now a unicorn, meaning its valuation as a private company exceeds $1 billion. Its valuation has been estimated at $1.4 billion.

The Microsoft billionaire published the blog post on his Gates Notes website after touring the site of Fervo’s Cape Station geothermal project, which is under construction in Utah. Fervo says Cape Station will be the world’s largest geothermal plant, capable of someday producing up to 2 gigawatts of power.

Earlier this year, Fervo raised $206 million to put toward the development of Cape Station. Of that amount, $100 million came from Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, a green tech investment program backed by Gates, according to Inc.com.

The first phase of Cape Station is scheduled to be completed in 2026, with first-year power generation pegged at 100 megawatts. An additional 500 megawatts of power-producing capacity is slated to go online in 2028.

“Geothermal is one of the most promising ways to deliver clean energy that’s reliable and affordable,” Gates wrote.

In the blog post, Gates praised the simplicity of geothermal energy.

“The interior of the Earth is incredibly hot, and the deeper you go, the hotter the ground becomes,” he explained. “If you pump fluid deep enough to be warmed by this heat and then pump it back to the surface, you can turn the hot liquid into steam and use it to spin turbines and generate electricity — just like many other types of power plants.”

Gates noted that horizontal drilling is one of Fervo’s biggest innovations. The company extends its wells horizontally by as much as 5,000 feet at the deepest point. It couples horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to extract geothermal energy from rock formations.

Most wells at Cape Station are 8,000 to 9,000 feet deep, and the deepest one is 15,000 feet below the surface, Gates pointed out.

Gates also emphasized the water-conserving, closed-system setup at Cape Station.

“Geothermal energy is one of the more climate-friendly sources of power, but one of its downsides is how much water it uses. … Fervo’s technology captures all the water that would’ve been lost and recirculates it underground to keep the system running,” he wrote.

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A View From HETI

The Clean Hydrogen Buyers Alliance plans to create the Gulf Coast Hydrogen Index to bring to bring transparency and confidence to hydrogen pricing. Photo via Getty Images

The Clean Hydrogen Buyers Alliance has proposed an index aimed at bringing transparency to pricing in the emerging hydrogen market.

The Houston-based alliance said the Gulf Coast Hydrogen Index, based on real-time data, would provide more clarity to pricing in the global market for hydrogen. The benchmarking effort is being designed to benefit clean hydrogen buyers, sellers and investors. The index would help position the U.S. “as the trading anchor for hydrogen’s next chapter as a globally traded commodity,” the alliance said.

According to ResearchAndMarkets.com, the global market for clean hydrogen was valued at $200 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $700 billion by 2040.

John Flory, president of the alliance, said the lack of a pricing index has relegated hydrogen to niche-market status.

“Capital is waiting. Buyers are ready. But until now, there’s been no credible, transparent pricing signal to guide clean hydrogen investing or contracting,” Edward Morse, co-chairman of the Clean Hydrogen Transaction Advisory Committee, said in a news release.

The index would treat the Gulf Coast as the primary delivery hub for pipeline-grade hydrogen in three categories: basic, low-carbon and ultra-low-carbon. It would be similar to the Henry Hub index for pricing of natural gas.

Roger Ballentine, co-chairman of the clean energy advisory committee, said the hydrogen index would build confidence in this energy source among government agencies, companies and investors. A Henry Hub-style benchmark for hydrogen “provides clarity, reduces risk, and lays the foundation for clean energy to become a globally traded commodity critical to decarbonization,” he said.

The Gulf Coast, with Texas as the focal point, is key to the evolution of the U.S. clean hydrogen economy, according to the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association.

At the core of the Gulf Coast’s role is the U.S. Department of Energy's selection of the Gulf Coast as one of the country’s seven regional hubs for clean hydrogen. However, the DOE has proposed cutting funding for the HyVelocity Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub, a $1.2 billion development in Texas and Louisiana by AES, Air Liquide, Chevron, ExxonMobil, MHI Hydrogen Infrastructure and Ørsted, according to a new list of proposed DOE funding cancellations.

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