geothermal predictions

Fervo Energy spotlighted by Bill Gates as geothermal’s global growth driver

Bill Gates says companies like Fervo push the geothermal technology 'to new depths.' Photo via fervoenergy.com

In a new blog post spotlighting Houston-based geothermal power startup Fervo Energy, billionaire Bill Gates — a Fervo investor — predicts geothermal will eventually supply up to 20 percent of the world’s electricity, up from his previous estimate of as much as 5 percent.

Today, geothermal accounts for less than 1 percent of electricity generated around the world, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency forecasts geothermal will represent up to 15 percent of global power by 2050.

“Geothermal power will have a big role to play in our clean energy future, and it’s exciting to see companies like Fervo push the technology to new depths,” Gates wrote.

Gates’ more than $1 billion Breakthrough Energy Ventures fund has contributed to the $982 million pool of money that Fervo has raised since its founding in 2017. Fervo is now a unicorn, meaning its valuation as a private company exceeds $1 billion. Its valuation has been estimated at $1.4 billion.

The Microsoft billionaire published the blog post on his Gates Notes website after touring the site of Fervo’s Cape Station geothermal project, which is under construction in Utah. Fervo says Cape Station will be the world’s largest geothermal plant, capable of someday producing up to 2 gigawatts of power.

Earlier this year, Fervo raised $206 million to put toward the development of Cape Station. Of that amount, $100 million came from Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, a green tech investment program backed by Gates, according to Inc.com.

The first phase of Cape Station is scheduled to be completed in 2026, with first-year power generation pegged at 100 megawatts. An additional 500 megawatts of power-producing capacity is slated to go online in 2028.

“Geothermal is one of the most promising ways to deliver clean energy that’s reliable and affordable,” Gates wrote.

In the blog post, Gates praised the simplicity of geothermal energy.

“The interior of the Earth is incredibly hot, and the deeper you go, the hotter the ground becomes,” he explained. “If you pump fluid deep enough to be warmed by this heat and then pump it back to the surface, you can turn the hot liquid into steam and use it to spin turbines and generate electricity — just like many other types of power plants.”

Gates noted that horizontal drilling is one of Fervo’s biggest innovations. The company extends its wells horizontally by as much as 5,000 feet at the deepest point. It couples horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to extract geothermal energy from rock formations.

Most wells at Cape Station are 8,000 to 9,000 feet deep, and the deepest one is 15,000 feet below the surface, Gates pointed out.

Gates also emphasized the water-conserving, closed-system setup at Cape Station.

“Geothermal energy is one of the more climate-friendly sources of power, but one of its downsides is how much water it uses. … Fervo’s technology captures all the water that would’ve been lost and recirculates it underground to keep the system running,” he wrote.

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A View From HETI

Quaise Energy is developing Project Obsidian, a superhot geothermal plant in central Oregon. Rendering via quaise.com.

Houston-based Quaise Energy is looking to raise $200 million to support the development of a 50-megawatt superhot geothermal plant in Oregon.

The company is seeking $100 million in Series B funding, plus an additional $100 million from grants, debt and project-level finance, a representative from the company tells Energy Capital. Axios first reported the news late last month.

Quaise specializes in terawatt-scale geothermal power. It is known for its millimeter-wave drilling technology, which was developed at MIT.

The company's Project Obsidian development in central Oregon will combine conventional drilling with its millimeter-wave technology. Quaise says the project, targeted to come online in 2030, could be the first commercial plant to operate in superhot rock, a more efficient and abundant resource, but one that requires more advanced and durable drilling technology.

Quaise says Obsidian would initially generate 50 megawatts of "always-on" power and would be designed to add 200 megawatts as additional wells are developed. A power-purchase deal has already been signed for the initial 50 megawatts with an undisclosed customer.

A representative from the company says Quaise would also use the funding to continue advancing its millimeter-wave technology and prepare it for commercialization.

Last year, the company drilled to a depth of about 330 feet using its millimeter-wave technology at its field site in Central Texas.

“Our progress this year has exceeded all expectations,” Carlos Araque, CEO and president of Quaise Energy, said at the time. “We’re drilling faster and deeper at this point than anyone believed possible, proving that millimeter-wave technology is the only tool capable of reaching the superhot rock needed for next-generation geothermal power. We are opening up a path to a new energy frontier.”

Canary Media reports that Quaise plans to drill to nearly 3,300 feet later this year and to deploy its millimeter-wave technology at its power plant in 2027.

Quaise raised $21 million in a Series A1 financing round in 2024 and a $52 million Series A in 2022. Major investors include Prelude Ventures, Safar Partners, Mitsubishi Corporation, Nabors Industries, TechEnergy and others.

Quaise was one of eight Houston-area companies to appear on Time magazine and Statista’s list of America’s Top GreenTech Companies of 2025.

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