geothermal predictions

Fervo Energy spotlighted by Bill Gates as geothermal’s global growth driver

Bill Gates says companies like Fervo push the geothermal technology 'to new depths.' Photo via fervoenergy.com

In a new blog post spotlighting Houston-based geothermal power startup Fervo Energy, billionaire Bill Gates — a Fervo investor — predicts geothermal will eventually supply up to 20 percent of the world’s electricity, up from his previous estimate of as much as 5 percent.

Today, geothermal accounts for less than 1 percent of electricity generated around the world, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency forecasts geothermal will represent up to 15 percent of global power by 2050.

“Geothermal power will have a big role to play in our clean energy future, and it’s exciting to see companies like Fervo push the technology to new depths,” Gates wrote.

Gates’ more than $1 billion Breakthrough Energy Ventures fund has contributed to the $982 million pool of money that Fervo has raised since its founding in 2017. Fervo is now a unicorn, meaning its valuation as a private company exceeds $1 billion. Its valuation has been estimated at $1.4 billion.

The Microsoft billionaire published the blog post on his Gates Notes website after touring the site of Fervo’s Cape Station geothermal project, which is under construction in Utah. Fervo says Cape Station will be the world’s largest geothermal plant, capable of someday producing up to 2 gigawatts of power.

Earlier this year, Fervo raised $206 million to put toward the development of Cape Station. Of that amount, $100 million came from Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, a green tech investment program backed by Gates, according to Inc.com.

The first phase of Cape Station is scheduled to be completed in 2026, with first-year power generation pegged at 100 megawatts. An additional 500 megawatts of power-producing capacity is slated to go online in 2028.

“Geothermal is one of the most promising ways to deliver clean energy that’s reliable and affordable,” Gates wrote.

In the blog post, Gates praised the simplicity of geothermal energy.

“The interior of the Earth is incredibly hot, and the deeper you go, the hotter the ground becomes,” he explained. “If you pump fluid deep enough to be warmed by this heat and then pump it back to the surface, you can turn the hot liquid into steam and use it to spin turbines and generate electricity — just like many other types of power plants.”

Gates noted that horizontal drilling is one of Fervo’s biggest innovations. The company extends its wells horizontally by as much as 5,000 feet at the deepest point. It couples horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to extract geothermal energy from rock formations.

Most wells at Cape Station are 8,000 to 9,000 feet deep, and the deepest one is 15,000 feet below the surface, Gates pointed out.

Gates also emphasized the water-conserving, closed-system setup at Cape Station.

“Geothermal energy is one of the more climate-friendly sources of power, but one of its downsides is how much water it uses. … Fervo’s technology captures all the water that would’ve been lost and recirculates it underground to keep the system running,” he wrote.

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A View From HETI

A new JLL report predicts that power will become the primary factor in selecting future data center sites, with renewables playing a major role. Photo courtesy JLL.

Renewable energy is evolving as the primary energy source for large data centers, according to a new report.

The 2026 Global Data Center Outlook from commercial real estate services giant JLL points out that the pivot toward big data centers being powered by renewable energy stems from rising electricity costs and tightening carbon reduction requirements. In the data center sector, renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, is expected to outcompete fossil fuels on cost, the report says.

The JLL forecast carries implications for the Houston area’s tech and renewable energy sectors.

As of December, Texas was home to 413 data centers, second only to Virginia at 665, according to Visual Capitalist. Dozens more data centers are in the pipeline, with many of the new facilities slated for the Houston, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio areas.

Amid Texas’ data center boom, several Houston companies are making inroads in the renewable energy market for data centers. For example, Houston-based low-carbon energy supplier ENGIE North America agreed last May to supply up to 300 megawatts of wind power for a Cipher Mining data center in West Texas.

The JLL report says power, not location or cost, will become the primary factor in selecting sites for data centers due to multi-year waits for grid connections.

“Energy infrastructure has emerged as the critical bottleneck constraining expansion [of data centers],” the report says. “Grid limitations now threaten to curtail growth trajectories, making behind-the-meter generation and integrated battery storage solutions essential pathways for sustainable scaling.”

Behind-the-meter generation refers to onsite energy systems such as microgrids, solar panels and solar battery storage. The report predicts global solar capacity will expand by roughly 100 gigawatts between 2026 and 2030 to more than 10,000 gigawatts.

“Solar will account for nearly half of global renewable energy capacity in 2026, and despite its intermittent properties, solar will remain a key source of sustainable energy for the data center sector for years to come,” the report says.

Thanks to cost and sustainability benefits, solar-plus-storage will become a key element of energy strategies for data centers by 2030, according to the report.

“While some of this energy harvesting will be colocated with data center facilities, much of the energy infrastructure will be installed offsite,” the report says.

Other findings of the report include:

  • AI could represent half of data center workloads by 2030, up from a quarter in 2025.
  • The current five-year “supercycle” of data center infrastructure development may result in global investments of up to $3 trillion by 2030.
  • Nearly 100 gigawatts worth of new data centers will be added between 2026 and 2030, doubling global capacity.

“We’re witnessing the most significant transformation in data center infrastructure since the original cloud migration,” says Matt Landek, who leads JLL’s data center division. “The sheer scale of demand is extraordinary.”

Hyperscalers, which operate massive data centers, are allocating $1 trillion for data center spending between 2024 and 2026, Landek notes, “while supply constraints and four-year grid connection delays are creating a perfect storm that’s fundamentally reshaping how we approach development, energy sourcing, and market strategy.”

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