guest column

Capitalism and climate: How financial shifts will shape our behavior


The insurance crisis is reverberating across the nation. Photograph by Geoffrey George/Getty Images

I never imagined I would see Los Angeles engulfed in flames in this way in my lifetime. As someone who has devoted years to studying climate science and advocating for climate technology solutions, I'm still caught off guard by the immediacy of these disasters. A part of me wants to believe the intensifying hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are merely an unfortunate string of bad luck. Whether through misplaced optimism or a subconscious shield of denial, I hadn't fully processed that these weren't just harbingers of a distant future, but our present reality. The recent fires have shattered that denial, bringing to mind the haunting prescience of the movie Don't Look Up. Perhaps we aren't as wise as we fancy ourselves to be.

The LA fires aren't an isolated incident. They're part of a terrifying pattern: the Canadian wildfires that darkened our skies, the devastating floods in Spain and Pakistan, and the increasingly powerful hurricanes in the Gulf. A stark new reality is emerging for climate-vulnerable cities, and whether we acknowledge the underlying crisis or not, climate change is making its presence felt – not just in death and destruction, but in our wallets.

The insurance industry, with its cold actuarial logic, is already responding. Even before the recent LA fires, major insurers like State Farm and Allstate had stopped writing new home policies in California, citing unmanageable wildfire risks. In the devastated Palisades area, 70% of homes had lost their insurance coverage before disaster struck. While some homeowners may have enrolled in California's limited FAIR plan, others likely went without coverage. Now, the FAIR plan faces $5.9 billion in potential claims, far exceeding its reinsurance backup – a shortfall that promises delayed payments and costlier coverage.

The insurance crisis is reverberating across the nation, and Houston sits squarely in its path. As a city all too familiar with the destructive power of extreme weather, we're experiencing our own reckoning. The Houston Chronicle recently reported that local homeowners are paying a $3,740 annually for insurance – nearly triple the national average and 60% higher than the Texas state average. Our region isn't just listed among the most expensive areas for home insurance; it's identified as one of the most vulnerable to climate hazards.

For Houston homeowners, Hurricane Harvey taught us a harsh lesson: flood zones are merely suggestions, not guarantees. The next major hurricane won't respect the city's floodplain designations. This reality poses a sobering question: Would you risk having your largest asset – your home – uninsured when flooding becomes increasingly likely in the next decade or two?

For most Americans, home equity represents one of the largest components of household wealth, a crucial stepping stone to financial security and generational advancement. Insurance isn't just about protecting physical property; it's about preserving the foundation of middle-class economic stability. When insurance becomes unavailable or unaffordable, it threatens the very basis of financial security for millions of families.

The insurance industry's retreat from vulnerable markets – as evidenced by Progressive and Foremost Insurance's withdrawal from writing new policies in Texas – is more than a business decision. It's a market signal. These companies are essentially pricing in the reality of climate change, whether we choose to call it that or not.

What we're witnessing is the market beginning to price us out of areas where we've either built unsustainably or perhaps should never have built at all. This isn't just about insurance rates; it's about the future viability of entire communities and regional economies. The invisible hand of the market is doing what political will has failed to do: forcing us to confront the true costs of our choices in a warming world.

Insurance companies aren't the only ones sounding the alarm. Lenders and investors are quietly rewriting the rules of capital access based on climate risk. Banks are adjusting mortgage terms and raising borrowing costs in vulnerable areas, while major investment firms are factoring carbon intensity into their lending decisions. Companies with higher environmental risks have faced higher loan spreads and borrowing costs – a trend that's accelerating as climate impacts intensify. This financial reckoning is creating a new economic geography, where access to capital increasingly depends on climate resilience.

The insurance crisis is the canary in the coal mine, warning us of the systemic risks ahead. As actuaries and risk managers factor climate risks into their models, we're seeing the beginning of a profound economic shift that will ripple far beyond housing, affecting businesses, agriculture, and entire regional economies. The question isn't whether we'll adapt to this new reality, but how much it will cost us – in both financial and human terms – before we finally act.

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Nada Ahmed is the founding partner at Houston-based Energy Tech Nexus.

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A View From HETI

Ace Green Recycling has secured a deal that will supply 100 percent of its phase one recycling capacity at its forthcoming Texas flagship facility. Photo courtesy Ace Green Recycling.

Houston- and Singapore-headquartered Ace Green Recycling, a provider of sustainable battery recycling technology solutions, has secured a 15-year battery material supply agreement with Miami-based OM Commodities.

The global commodities trading firm will supply Ace with at least 30,000 metric tons of lead scrap annually, which the company expects to recycle at its planned flagship facility in Texas. Production is expected to commence in 2026.

"We believe that Ace's future Texas facility is poised to play a key role in addressing many of the current challenges in the lead industry in the U.S., while helping the country meet the growing domestic demand for valuable battery materials," Nishchay Chadha, CEO and co-founder of Ace, said in a news release. "This agreement with OM Commodities will provide us with enough supply to support our Texas facility during all of its current planned phases, enabling us to achieve optimal efficiencies as we deploy our solutions in the U.S. market. With OM Commodities being a U.S.-based leader in metals doing business across the Americas and Asia with a specialty in lead batteries, we look forward to leveraging their expertise in the space as we advance our scale-up efforts."

The feedstock will be sufficient to cover 100 percent of Ace's phase one recycling capacity at the Texas facility, according to the statement. The companies are also discussing future lithium battery recycling collaborations.

"Ace is a true pioneer when it comes to providing an environmentally friendly and economically superior solution to recycle valuable material from lead scrap," Yiannis Dumas, president of OM Commodities, added in the news release. "We look forward to supporting Ace with lead feedstock as they scale up their operations in Texas and helping create a more circular and sustainable battery materials supply chain in the U.S."

Additionally, ACE shared that it is expected to close a merger with Athena Technology Acquisition Corp. II (NYSE: ATEK) in the second half of 2025, after which Ace will become a publicly traded company on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol "AGXI."

"As we continue to scale our lead and lithium battery recycling technologies to help support the markets for both internal combustion engines and electric vehicles, we expect that our upcoming listing will be a key accelerator of growth for Ace,” Chada said.

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