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Houston energy expert looks ahead to climate tech trends of 2026

Guest Column

20+ companies will pitch at Energy Tech Nexus' Pilotathon during Houston Energy & Climate Startup Week. Photo via Getty Images.

There is no sugar‑coating it: 2025 was a rough year for many climate tech founders. Headlines focused on policy rollbacks and IRA uncertainty, while total climate tech venture and growth investment only inched up to about 40.5 billion dollars, an 8% rise that felt more like stabilization than the 2021–2022 boom. Deal count actually fell 18% and investor participation dropped 19%, with especially steep pullbacks in carbon and transportation, as capital concentrated in fewer, larger, “safer” bets. Growth-stage funding jumped 78% while early-stage seed rounds dropped 20%.

On top of that, tariff battles and shifting trade rules added real supply‑chain friction. In the first half of 2025, solar and wind were still 91% of new U.S. capacity additions, but interconnection delays, equipment uncertainty, and changing incentive structures meant many projects stalled or were repriced mid‑stream. Founders who had raised on 2021‑style valuations and policy optimism suddenly found themselves stuck in limbo, extending runway or shutting down.

The bright spots were teams positioned at the intersection of climate and the AI power surge. Power demand from data centers is now a primary driver of new climate‑aligned offtake, pulling capital toward firm, 24/7 resources. Geothermal developers like Fervo Energy, Sage Geosystems and XGS did well. Google’s enhanced‑geothermal deal in Nevada scales from a 3.5 MW pilot to about 115 MW under a clean transition tariff, nearly 30× growth in geothermal capacity enabled by a single corporate buyer. Meta and others are exploring similar pathways to secure round‑the‑clock low‑carbon power for hyperscale loads.

Beyond geothermal, nuclear is clearly back on the strategic menu. In 2024, Google announced the first U.S. corporate nuclear offtake, committing to purchase 500 MW from Kairos Power’s SMR fleet by 2035, a signal that big tech is willing to underwrite new firm‑power technologies when the decarbonization and reliability story is compelling. Meta just locked in 6.6GW of nuclear capacity through deals with Vistra, Oklo, and TerraPower.

Growth investors and corporates are increasingly clustering around platforms that can monetize long‑duration PPAs into data‑center demand rather than purely policy‑driven arbitrage.

Looking into 2026, the same trends will continue:

Solar and wind

Even with policy headwinds, solar and wind continue to dominate new capacity. In the first half of 2025 they made up about 90% of new U.S. electricity capacity. Over the 2025–2028 period, FERC’s ‘high‑probability’ pipeline points to on the order of 90–93 GW of new utility‑scale solar and roughly 20–23 GW of new wind, far outpacing other resources.

Storage and flexibility

Solar plus batteries is now the default build—solar and storage together account for about 81% of expected 2025 U.S. capacity additions, with storage deployments scaling alongside renewables to keep grids flexible. Thermal storage and other grid‑edge flexibility solutions are also attracting growing attention as ways to smooth volatile load.

EVs and transport

EV uptake continues to anchor long‑term battery demand; while transportation funding cooled in 2025, EV sales and charging build‑out are still major components of clean‑energy demand‑side investment

Buildings

Heat pumps, smart HVAC, and efficient water heating are now the dominant vectors for building‑sector decarbonization. Heating and cooling startups alone have raised billions since 2020, with nearly 700 million dollars going into HVAC‑focused companies in 2024, and that momentum carried into 2025.

Hydrogen

The green hydrogen narrative has faded, but analysts still see hydrogen as essential for steel, chemicals, and other hard‑to‑abate sectors, with large‑scale projects and offtake frameworks under development rather than headline hype.

CCS/CCUS

After years of skepticism, more large CCS projects are finally reaching FID and coming online, helped by a mix of tax credits and industrial demand, which makes CCS look more investable than it did in the pre‑IRA era.

So, yes, 2025 was a downer from the easy‑money, policy‑euphoria years. But the signal beneath the noise is clear: capital is rotating toward technologies with proven unit economics, real offtake (especially from AI‑driven power loads), and credible paths to scale—not away from climate altogether.

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Nada Ahmed is the founding partner at Houston-based Energy Tech Nexus.

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Houston expert discusses the clean energy founder's paradox

Guest Column

Everyone tells you to move fast and break things. In clean energy, moving fast without structural integrity means breaking the only planet we’ve got. This is the founder's paradox: you are building a company in an industry where the stakes are existential, the timelines are glacial, and the capital requires patience.

The myth of the lone genius in a garage doesn’t really apply here. Clean energy startups aren’t just fighting competitors. They are fighting physics, policy, and decades of existing infrastructure. This isn’t an app. You’re building something physical that has to work in the real world. It has to be cheaper, more reliable, and clearly better than fossil fuels. Being “green” alone isn’t enough. Scale is what matters.

Your biggest risks aren’t competitors. They’re interconnection delays, permitting timelines, supply chain fragility, and whether your first customer is willing to underwrite something that hasn’t been done before.

That reality creates a brutal filter. Successful founders in this space need deep technical knowledge and the ability to execute. You need to understand engineering, navigate regulation, and think in terms of markets and risk. You’re not just selling a product. You’re selling a future where your solution becomes the obvious choice. That means connecting short-term financial returns with long-term system change.

The capital is there, but it’s smarter and more demanding. Investors today have PhDs in electrochemistry and grid dynamics. They’ve been burned by promises of miracle materials that never left the lab. They don't fund visions; they fund pathways to impact that can scale and make financial sense. Your roadmap must show not just a brilliant invention, but a clear, believable plan to drive costs down over time.

Capital in this sector isn’t impressed by ambition alone. It wants evidence that risk is being retired in the right order — even if that means slower growth early.

Here’s the upside. The difficulty of clean energy is also its strength. If you succeed, your advantage isn’t just in software or branding. It’s in hardware, supply chains, approvals, and years of hard work that others can’t easily copy. Your real competitors aren’t other startups. They’re inertia and the existing system. Winning here isn’t zero-sum. When one solution scales, it helps the entire market grow.

So, to the founder in the lab, or running field tests at a remote site: your pace will feel slow. The validation cycles are long. But you are building in the physical world. When you succeed, you don’t have an exit. You have a foundation. You don't just have customers; you have converts. And the product you ship doesn't just generate revenue; it creates a legacy.

If your timelines feel uncomfortable compared to software, that’s because you’re operating inside a system designed to resist change. And let’s not forget you are building actual physical products that interact with a complex world. Times are tough. Don’t give up. We need you.

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Nada Ahmed is the founding partner at Houston-based Energy Tech Nexus.

Eight startups were given awards at Energy Tech Nexus' Pilotathon. Photo via Getty Images.

Energy Tech Nexus names 8 startup winners from Pilotathon pitch event

winner, winners

Energy Tech Nexus held its Pilotathon and Showcase during the second annual Houston Energy & Climate Startup Week last month and granted awards to eight startups.

This year's event, focused on the theme "Energy Access and Resilience," offered 24 startups an opportunity to pitch their pilot projects.

"At Energy Tech Nexus, we recognize that scaling breakthrough energy technologies requires more than just capital—it demands strategic pilot partnerships," Nada Ahmed, founding Partner of Energy Tech Nexus, said in a release. "The Pilotathon serves as that critical bridge, creating a dynamic platform where established industry leaders and emerging startups collaborate to accelerate the deployment of solutions that will define our energy future."

Companies selected to participate in the Pilotathon and others from Energy Tech Nexus' COPILOT accelerator pitched at the event.

The Pilotathon winners included:

  • Best Overall Pilot Pitch: New Jersey-based Metal Light Inc., which is building a circular, solid metal fuel that will serve as a replacement for diesel fuel
  • Best Commercial Readiness Award: Oregon-based Espiku Inc. and Calgary-based Serenity Power. Espiku designs and develops water treatment and mineral extraction technologies that rely on low-pressure evaporative cycles. Serenity Power has developed a cutting-edge solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology.
  • Corporate Partners Choice Award: California-based Rushnu, which has developed its modular CarbonCatalyze™ units that generate carbon-negative feedstock and is producing valuable chemicals from CO2 and salt at wastewater treatment sites.
  • People’s Choice Award for Best Startup Showcase: Houston-based Resin8, an AI-powered marketplace for industrial assets and heavy equipment

The COPILOT winners included:

  • Best Overall Pilot Pitch: Wisconsin-based V-Glass, which has developed a next-generation, vacuum-insulated glass
  • Energy Resilience Champion Award: Phoenix-based EnKoat, which is creating advanced material solutions to decarbonize buildings
  • Energy Access Award: Dallas-based Janta Power, which is developing 3D solar towers
  • Most Impactful Pilot: Houston-based PolyQor, which converts plastic waste into high-performing construction materials
COPILOT partners with Browning the Green Space, a nonprofit that promotes diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) in the clean energy and climatetech sectors. The Wells Fargo Innovation Incubator (IN²) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory backs the COPILOT accelerator, where companies are tasked with developing pilot projects for their innovations. Read more about the inaugural cohort here.
EnergyTech Nexus will move into Greentown Labs and plans to open an investor lounge on-site. Photo courtesy Greentown Labs.

Greentown and EnergyTech Nexus announce ecosystem partnership

green team

Two of Houston’s leading energy transition organizations are joining forces.

Climatetech incubator Greentown Labs and founder community EnergyTech Nexus announced a "strategic ecosystem partnership," aimed at accelerating growth for clean energy startups. EnergyTech Nexus will move into Greentown Labs and plans to open an investor lounge on-site.

“Greentown Labs is the nexus for the energy transition, where startups can gather, collaborate and grow. Positioning our own extended community within the hallowed walls of Greentown will further foster the creation of authentic connections between founders and reduce friction to critical resources, bringing the village together will only accelerate the flywheel on innovation here in Houston, Texas,” Jason Ethier, EnergyTech Nexus founding partner, said in a news release.

Additionally, EnergyTech Nexus will launch Cephyron IRM, an AI-driven investor platform that will help founders of early-stage technologies connect with sources of capital. Greentown members will be granted early access to the platform.

According to the organizations, the ecosystem partnership represents years of collaboration. Ethier, whose startup Dynamo Micropower was one of the first to join Greentown's Cambridge, Massachusetts, incubator, previously served on Greentown's board of directors and in other leadership positions. He and Juliana Garaizar, a fellow founding partner of EnergyTech Nexus, were also instrumental in bringing Greentown Labs to Houston. Garaizar has also held numerous leadership roles at Greentown Houston.

“This partnership has been a long time coming—our organizations are kindred spirits that need to be working together to enhance the entrepreneurial support systems available to climate innovators in Houston,” Lawson Gow, Greentown’s Head of Houston, added in the release. “Capital is a top priority for climate and energy founders, and this team-up will directly address this challenge.”

20-plus companies will pitch at Energy Tech Nexus' Pilotathon during Houston Energy & Climate Startup Week. Photo via Getty Images.

Energy Tech Nexus announces international startups to pitch at Pilotathon

Ready, Set, Pitch

Energy Tech Nexus will host its Pilotathon and Showcase as part of Houston Energy & Climate Startup Week next Tuesday, Sept. 16, featuring insightful talks from industry leaders and pitches from an international group of companies in the clean energy space.

This year's event will center around the theme "Energy Access and Resilience." Attendees will hear pitches from nine Pilotathon pitch companies, as well as the 14 companies that were named to Energy Tech Nexus' COPILOT accelerator earlier this year.

COPILOT partners with Browning the Green Space, a nonprofit that promotes diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) in the clean energy and climatetech sectors. The Wells Fargo Innovation Incubator (IN²) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory backs the COPILOT accelerator, where companies are tasked with developing pilot projects for their innovations.

The nine Pilotathon pitch companies include:

  • Ontario-based AlumaPower, which has developed a breakthrough technology that converts the aluminum-air battery into a "galvanic generator," a long-duration energy source that runs on aluminum as a fuel
  • Calgary-based BioOilSolv, a chemical manufacturing company that has developed cutting-edge biomass-derived solvents
  • Atlanta-based Cultiv8 Fuels, which creates high-quality renewable fuel products derived from hemp
  • Newfoundland-based eDNAtec Inc., a leader in environmental genomics that analyzes biodiversity and ecological health
  • Oregon-based Espiku Inc., which designs and develops water treatment and mineral extraction technologies that rely on low-pressure evaporative cycles
  • New York-based Fast Metals Inc., which has developed a chemical process to extract valuable metals from complex toxic mine tailings that is capable of producing iron, aluminum, scandium, titanium and other rare earth elements using industrial waste and waste CO2 as inputs
  • New Jersey-based Metal Light Inc., which is building a circular, solid metal fuel that will serve as a replacement for diesel fuel
  • Glasgow-based Novosound, which designs and manufactures innovative ultrasound sensors using a thin-film technique to address the limitations of traditional ultrasound with applications in industrial, medical and wearable markets
  • Calgary-based Serenity Power, which has developed a cutting-edge solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology

The COPILOT accelerator companies include:

  • Accelerate Wind
  • Aquora Biosystems Inc.
  • EarthEn
  • Electromaim
  • EnKoat
  • GeoFuels
  • Harber Coatings Inc.
  • Janta Power
  • NanoSieve
  • PolyQor Inc.
  • Popper Power
  • Siva Powers America
  • ThermoShade
  • V-Glass Inc.

Read more about them here.

The Pilotathon will also include a keynote from Taylor Chapman, investment manager at New Climate Ventures; Deanna Zhang, CEO at V1 Climate Solutions; and Jolene Gurevich, director of fellowship experience at Breakthrough Energy. The Texas Climate Tech Collective will present its latest study on the Houston climate tech and innovation ecosystem.

CEOs Moji Karimi of Cemvita, Laureen Meroueh of Hertha Metals and others will also participate in a panel on successful pilots. Investors from NetZero Ventures, Halliburton Labs, Chevron, Saudi Aramco, Prithvi VC and other organizations will also be on-site. Find registration information here.


The insurance crisis is reverberating across the nation. Photograph by Geoffrey George/Getty Images

Capitalism and climate: How financial shifts will shape our behavior

guest column

I never imagined I would see Los Angeles engulfed in flames in this way in my lifetime. As someone who has devoted years to studying climate science and advocating for climate technology solutions, I'm still caught off guard by the immediacy of these disasters. A part of me wants to believe the intensifying hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are merely an unfortunate string of bad luck. Whether through misplaced optimism or a subconscious shield of denial, I hadn't fully processed that these weren't just harbingers of a distant future, but our present reality. The recent fires have shattered that denial, bringing to mind the haunting prescience of the movie Don't Look Up. Perhaps we aren't as wise as we fancy ourselves to be.

The LA fires aren't an isolated incident. They're part of a terrifying pattern: the Canadian wildfires that darkened our skies, the devastating floods in Spain and Pakistan, and the increasingly powerful hurricanes in the Gulf. A stark new reality is emerging for climate-vulnerable cities, and whether we acknowledge the underlying crisis or not, climate change is making its presence felt – not just in death and destruction, but in our wallets.

The insurance industry, with its cold actuarial logic, is already responding. Even before the recent LA fires, major insurers like State Farm and Allstate had stopped writing new home policies in California, citing unmanageable wildfire risks. In the devastated Palisades area, 70% of homes had lost their insurance coverage before disaster struck. While some homeowners may have enrolled in California's limited FAIR plan, others likely went without coverage. Now, the FAIR plan faces $5.9 billion in potential claims, far exceeding its reinsurance backup – a shortfall that promises delayed payments and costlier coverage.

The insurance crisis is reverberating across the nation, and Houston sits squarely in its path. As a city all too familiar with the destructive power of extreme weather, we're experiencing our own reckoning. The Houston Chronicle recently reported that local homeowners are paying a $3,740 annually for insurance – nearly triple the national average and 60% higher than the Texas state average. Our region isn't just listed among the most expensive areas for home insurance; it's identified as one of the most vulnerable to climate hazards.

For Houston homeowners, Hurricane Harvey taught us a harsh lesson: flood zones are merely suggestions, not guarantees. The next major hurricane won't respect the city's floodplain designations. This reality poses a sobering question: Would you risk having your largest asset – your home – uninsured when flooding becomes increasingly likely in the next decade or two?

For most Americans, home equity represents one of the largest components of household wealth, a crucial stepping stone to financial security and generational advancement. Insurance isn't just about protecting physical property; it's about preserving the foundation of middle-class economic stability. When insurance becomes unavailable or unaffordable, it threatens the very basis of financial security for millions of families.

The insurance industry's retreat from vulnerable markets – as evidenced by Progressive and Foremost Insurance's withdrawal from writing new policies in Texas – is more than a business decision. It's a market signal. These companies are essentially pricing in the reality of climate change, whether we choose to call it that or not.

What we're witnessing is the market beginning to price us out of areas where we've either built unsustainably or perhaps should never have built at all. This isn't just about insurance rates; it's about the future viability of entire communities and regional economies. The invisible hand of the market is doing what political will has failed to do: forcing us to confront the true costs of our choices in a warming world.

Insurance companies aren't the only ones sounding the alarm. Lenders and investors are quietly rewriting the rules of capital access based on climate risk. Banks are adjusting mortgage terms and raising borrowing costs in vulnerable areas, while major investment firms are factoring carbon intensity into their lending decisions. Companies with higher environmental risks have faced higher loan spreads and borrowing costs – a trend that's accelerating as climate impacts intensify. This financial reckoning is creating a new economic geography, where access to capital increasingly depends on climate resilience.

The insurance crisis is the canary in the coal mine, warning us of the systemic risks ahead. As actuaries and risk managers factor climate risks into their models, we're seeing the beginning of a profound economic shift that will ripple far beyond housing, affecting businesses, agriculture, and entire regional economies. The question isn't whether we'll adapt to this new reality, but how much it will cost us – in both financial and human terms – before we finally act.

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Nada Ahmed is the founding partner at Houston-based Energy Tech Nexus.

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San Antonio company breaks ground on 347MW solar project outside of Houston

coming soon

Crews have broken ground on the forthcoming 347-megawatt direct-current SunRoper Solar project in Wharton County, Texas, that will add capacity to the ERCOT grid.

The solar project, which is slated to begin operations in December 2027, will provide electricity to an undisclosed Fortune 100 company under a long-term power purchase agreement, according to a news release.

San Antonio’s OCI Energy and Israel's Arava Power are developing the project. It's being financed by ING Capital and constructed by Louisiana-based WHC Inc. The project received $394 million in construction financing in February.

"SunRoper demonstrates how strategic partnerships can help meet Texas' growing demand for electricity through investments in critical energy infrastructure," Sabah Bayatli, president of OCI Energy, said in the release.

Project partners, landowners and company executives attended a groundbreaking event for SunRoper on Sept. 1 at the site outside of the Houston metro area. The companies say they are advancing this energy project to strengthen grid reliability and to help deliver affordable power to one of the highest-demand areas in the state.

“WHC is proud to serve as EPC contractor on the SunRoper Solar project, bringing our construction expertise to bear on a facility that will deliver meaningful power to the Houston region,” Randel Badeaux, president of power North America for WHC, added in the news release. “This groundbreaking reflects months of careful planning and coordination with OCI Energy, Arava Power and our project partners, and we look forward to executing a safe, high-quality build through to completion in 2027.”

OCI Energy currently operates several utility-scale solar and battery energy storage system projects outside of the San Antonio area, and has five other projects under construction outside of San Antonio and Waco, with more than 30 under development in Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, Colorado and Alberta, Canada. The company also has existing projects in New Jersey and Georgia.

In $2 billion deal, NVIDIA takes 20% stake in Woodlands-based Lancium

power play

With an initial investment of $2 billion, AI chip manufacturer NVIDIA just acquired a 20 percent stake in The Woodlands-based Lancium, which develops large-scale campuses that combine AI data centers and onsite power supplies.

Lancium recently announced the investment but didn’t disclose the dollar amount. The Information news website reported NVIDIA’s investment totaled $2 billion, with the possibility of an additional $1 billion if Lancium achieves certain milestones.

Dealroom.co calls NVIDIA’s investment a “form of supply-chain insurance.”

NVIDIA “is gaining exposure to the scarce physical assets that determine whether its chips can be deployed,” Dealroom.co says. “The move makes Nvidia look less like a pure chip company and more like an allocator of infrastructure capacity.”

Investment precedes possible IPO in 2027

Thanks to NVIDIA’s cash infusion, Lancium and its portfolio of land and power connections carry an enterprise value of about $10 billion, according to The Information.

The investment should enable Lancium to expand as it explores a potential IPO next year, The Information reported.

Neither Lancium nor NVIDIA is responding to requests for comment about the deal.

Lancium’s marquee project is a 1,000-acre data center and power generation campus in West Texas for the $500 billion Stargate initiative. Stargate, a joint venture comprising MGX, OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank, is building data centers equipped to handle AI-level workloads.

“Epicenter of energy and AI infrastructure”

Founded in 2017, Lancium has 4 gigawatts of leased capacity and a more than 15-gigawatt development pipeline. In 2024, Blackstone Energy Transition Partners invested about $500 million in Lancium, giving Blackstone a roughly 50 percent stake.

“This partnership with NVIDIA is a strong testament to Lancium’s position at the epicenter of energy and AI infrastructure … . We look forward to continuing to partner with these leading companies to help power the next generation of AI innovation,” Bilal Khan, senior managing director at Blackstone, said in a release.

Through the NVIDIA partnership, Lancium’s data center and power generation campuses will use the tech company’s “AI factory” platform, including software, computing, and networking capabilities. This will give NVIDIA customers and partners access to power capacity that supports heavy AI workloads.

“We have spent years assembling the power, the land, and the infrastructure expertise needed to deliver AI data center capacity at a scale the world has never seen,” Michael McNamara, co-founder and CEO of Lancium, said in the release.

“Partnering with NVIDIA — the definitive technology platform for AI computing — ensures that every campus in our portfolio will be deployed with the industry’s most advanced technology and that NVIDIA’s customers will have access to the capacity they need to compete and lead in the AI era.”

U.S. oil giant Chevron confirms it will expand operations in Venezuela

O&G News

Oil giant Chevron confirmed that it will expand operations in Venezuela after President Donald Trump announced an ambitious deal to develop the nation’s oil reserves and give the Pentagon a stake in the profits.

Chevron, the only U.S. oil company with a major presence in Venezuela, said Wednesday that it has been assigned additional acreage in the Orinoco Belt, where it has active operations. The company plans to invest more than $7 billion over the next five years, with the goal of more than doubling its current production to about 600,000 barrels a day.

“Chevron’s history in Venezuela spans more than a century, and our expanded position reflects our confidence in the country’s deep resource potential,” CEO Mike Wirth said in a prepared statement.

Venezuela holds the world's largest proven reserves, totaling more than 303 billion barrels of crude oil, according to OPEC's 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin. Saudi Arabia is a distant second with 267 billion barrels.

Yet because Venezuela's energy infrastructure is severely degraded and the nation is operating under international sanctions, its daily production is just over 1 million barrels, compared with the 10 million to 11 million barrels that Saudi Arabia produces each day. The U.S. produces almost 14 million barrels per day.

Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, has had a presence in Venezuela since 1923.

“President Trump’s mission in Venezuela is straightforward. The mission is to bring peace, freedom, opportunity and prosperity to the people of Venezuela,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday in Caracas, Venezuela. “I believe the deals that are signed today – tens of billions of dollars of investment, ultimately many thousands of jobs – are critical in starting this ball rolling of peace, opportunity and prosperity for everyone in Venezuela.”

The White House confirmed Monday that it is partnering with North American Blue Energy Partners, NABEP, as part of Trump ’s push to tap into Venezuela’s oil industry.

Yet the agreement has been met with skepticism from energy experts who say it will take years to revive Venezuela’s oil industry, which is in disarray after years of neglect.

There are also questions about whether Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, has the authority to give NABEP 100-year rights over 17 oil fields with reserves of 65 billion barrels — and whether future Venezuelan or American administrations would overturn the agreement.

Venezuela's constitution states that arrangements like the one that the United States announced this week must be approved by the National Assembly, which has not happened, wrote Ian Vásquez, vice president for international studies at the Cato Institute.

“The deal lacks legitimacy since it was agreed to with a dictatorship that has clung to power for decades through violence and by committing what was probably the largest electoral fraud in Latin American history in 2024,” Vásquez wrote. “The agreement was also reached under overwhelming pressure, military and otherwise, from the United States. As such, any future Venezuelan democracy will question the deal, thus undermining confidence in the current arrangement.”

Wright on Wednesday told reporters during a joint press conference with Rodríguez pushed back on criticism.

“This is a deal that’s a massive win and benefit for the people of the United States of America and a massive win for the people of Venezuela," he said. "Because what it’s going to do is take resources that are underground, not helping anyone, and invest capital and money and technology and bring them to the surface to better the lives of Venezuelans, better supply energy to Americans.”

Trump has eyed Venezuela’s oil since the January capture of then-President Nicolás Maduro and has pressed to get U.S. businesses back into the country. “We have Exxon going in, we have Chevron going in. We have our big oil companies going in,” he said that same month.

He suggested again on Monday that other U.S. oil majors were preparing for a return, though other than Chevron, there is no evidence of that.

Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said in January that Venezuela was “ uninvestable.” An Exxon spokesman said this week that “nothing has changed.”

The history of U.S. oil majors in Venezuela explains the hesitation.

Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976 and created the state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. A second nationalization occurred in 2007, when President Hugo Chávez pushed foreign oil companies into state-controlled joint ventures and seized the assets of companies that refused. Chevron agreed to a joint venture. Others, including Exxon and ConocoPhillips, refused, and Venezuela took their assets.

Trump has said that the agreement with Venezuela would “substantially lower” gasoline prices in the U.S. However, analyst have repeatedly warned that Venezuela’s dilapidated oil infrastructure will require years of restoration work and tens of billions of dollars to resuscitate.

“It could take 2 to 4 years to get new greenfield facilities online in the Orinoco region,” Amy Jaffe, director of the Global Energy, Climate, and Sustainability Lab at New York University, said in an email. "Other places where there is no pipeline and other kinds of support infrastructure could take longer.”

Meanwhile, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped overnight to $4.12, according to the motor club AAA. That is 93 cents more than it cost at this point last year.

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