EV surge could shutter 40 refineries by 2040, Wood Mackenzie report warns

ev outlook

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040. Photo via Unsplash

The rise of electric vehicles could spell trouble for Houston’s oil and gas sector, a new report suggests. But the oil and gas industry stands to benefit from potential sluggishness in U.S. adoption of EVs.

If worldwide EV adoption rises as expected, global oil demand could fall by five million barrels per day by 2040, accelerating the closure of about 40 oil refineries, says the report, published by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The firm’s North American hub is in Houston.

Those closures might spell trouble for refinery operators with a sizable Houston-area presence, including BP, ExxonMobil, Marathon, Saudi Aramco, and Valero. In 2025, the five companies collectively earned roughly $33 billion from downstream operations, including refineries. One caveat: Each company assigns a different definition to “downstream.”

Refineries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, including the U.S. but excluding Middle Eastern heavyweights, “are most at risk due to their high energy costs and carbon prices,” the Wood Mackenzie report says.

On the flip side, an abundant U.S. oil supply means American drivers have less of an incentive to switch from traditional cars to electric vehicles, despite stubbornly high fuel prices, according to the report.

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040, up from three percent in 2025. That compares with a global forecast of 25 percent in 2040, up from 4 percent last year.

Another U.S. roadblock to EV adoption cited in the report: the country’s relative lack of advanced battery manufacturing.

“Without advanced battery technologies, the U.S. auto sector is at risk of ceding its home market to non-Chinese EVs and falling behind competitors internationally,” the report says.

Furthermore, according to the report, Chinese investment in EV manufacturing in the U.S. probably will remain a no-go and tariffs on Chinese EV imports likely won’t be lifted, even if Democrats resurrected EV incentives following a White House win in 2028.

“Competition among EV manufacturers in international markets will only intensify,” the report notes. “Companies that can offer competitive products in high-growth markets will be best positioned for long-term success.”

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Jian Shi, Chuyue Wang and Kailai Wang have developed a model that aims to make recycling e-waste economically viable and help recover critical minerals needed for EVs. Photo courtesy UH.

Houston researchers propose model to scale e-waste recycling

critical research

The “missing link” in critical minerals may have been in our junk drawers all along, according to new research from the University of Houston.

Jian Shi, an associate professor in the UH Cullen College of Engineering, and his team have unveiled a new supply chain model that aims to make e-waste economically viable and could help make large-scale recycling possible.

Shi, along with professor Kailai Wang and graduate researcher Chuyue Wang, published the work in a recent issue of Nature. Their study outlines how gold, lithium and cobalt from discarded electronics can be kept circulating in the U.S. through the process of “urban mining.” It was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) through the Vehicle Technologies Office.

The team’s research found that e-waste is the fastest-growing solid waste stream in the world. When waste from smartphones or tablets is left unmanaged, the devices can leak hazardous waste and pose significant fire risks due to aging batteries. Additionally, when they are shipped off to foreign landfills, the U.S. loses the potential to recycle or reuse the critical minerals left inside.

“A lot of people have iPads or old iPhones sitting in their drawers right now, and that’s a waste of a critical resource,” Shi said in a news release. “Urban mining allows us to extract the same high-value materials found in traditional mines without the environmental destruction. More importantly, it helps secure our domestic supply chain for the technologies of tomorrow.”

According to UH, recycling e-waste has not succeeded in the U.S. due to a fragmented recycling system, in which manufacturers, collectors and recyclers operate separately, driving up costs.

The UH team's research looks to change that.

In the study, the researchers modeled streamlined recycling efforts by mapping the interactions between manufacturers and independent recycling markets. Their dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) model identified how these players can transition from competitors to partners, which can distribute profits more equitably and make recycling efforts more financially attractive.

According to UH, the research has particular significance due to the growing demand for electronic vehicles and their batteries.

“We can improve the performance of the entire recycling ecosystem and make the profit distribution more balanced,” Wang said in the release. “This ensures that the materials we need for EVs and advanced electronics stay right here in the U.S.”

“By making recycling work at scale, we aren’t just cleaning up waste,” Shi added. “We’re building a foundation that benefits both our national security and our economy.”

The first Alto EVs have hit the road in Houston. Photo via Alto

Texas ride-hailing app grows Houston fleet with EV additions

rolling out

Your next Alto ride might be electric. The Dallas-based car service has rolled out electric vehicles in Houston.

Alto, founded in Dallas in 2018 and launched in Houston in 2020, elevates ridesharing with its own fleet of company-owned, clearly branded SUVs driven by its staff of drivers. The company previously announced its plans to evolve its fleet into being completely electric, and the first EVs have hit the road, according to a company email.

"Our EV additions to the Houston fleet mark an important moment in our commitment to significantly reduce Alto's environmental impact," reads the email sent on September 5.

The new cars offer similar features to its existing fleet, including legroom, phone chargers, water bottles for riders, and more. Plus, the new cars — Kia EV9 — boast a quieter ride.

Alto has consistently grown in its Texas markets — which include Houston and Dallas — over the years, including expanding into Houston's suburbs.

Will Coleman, CEO of Alto, previously wrote in a guest column for InnovationMap that his priorities for starting the company included safety — but also sustainability. For years, Alto has been expressing interest in introducing EVs, with plans of having a completely electric fleet.

"This EV vision is one example of how a rideshare company can build a better and more accountable industry, and these steps also give Houstonians a more responsible and sustainable transportation solution," Coleman writes.

The Austin, Texas, company said Tuesday that it sold 443,956 vehicles from April through June, down 4.8 percent from 466,140 sold the same period a year ago. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla sales fall for second straight quarter despite price cuts, but decline not as bad as expected

by the numbers

Tesla's global sales fell for the second straight quarter despite price cuts and low-interest financing offers, another sign of weakening demand for the company's products and electric vehicles overall.

The Austin, Texas, company said Tuesday that it sold 443,956 vehicles from April through June, down 4.8 percent from 466,140 sold the same period a year ago. But the sales were better than the 436,000 that analysts had expected.

The better-than-expected deliveries pushed Tesla's stock up 10 percent Tuesday. The stock is down about 7 percent so far this year, but it has nearly erased larger losses from prior months. Tesla shares had been down more than 40 percent earlier in the year, but are up more than 60 percent since hitting a 52-week low in April.

Demand for EVs worldwide is slowing, but they're still growing for most automakers. Tesla, with an aging model lineup and relatively high average selling prices, has struggled more than other manufacturers. Still it retained the title of the world's top-selling electric vehicle maker.

For the first half of the year, Tesla sold 830,766 electric vehicles worldwide, handily beating China's BYD, which sold 726,153 EVs.

Tesla also sold over 33,000 more vehicles during the second quarter than it produced, which should reduce the company's inventory on hand at its stores.

Tesla's sales decline comes as competition is increasing from legacy and startup automakers, which are trying to nibble away at the company's market share. Most other automakers will report U.S. sales figures later Tuesday.

Tesla gave no explanation for the sales decline, which is a harbinger of what to expect when it posts second-quarter earnings on July 23.

Nearly all of Tesla’s sales came from the smaller and less-expensive Models 3 and Y, with the company selling only 21,551 of its more expensive models that include X and S, as well as the new Cybertruck.

The sales decline came despite Tesla knocking $2,000 off the prices of three of its five models in the United States in April. The company cut the prices of the Model Y, Tesla’s most popular model and the top-selling electric vehicle in the U.S., and also of the Models X and S.

The April cuts reduced the starting price for a Model Y to $42,990 and to $72,990 for a Model S and $77,990 for a Model X. Last week, Tesla lopped $2,340 off the $38,990 base price of some newly revamped Model 3s that were in the inventory shipped to its stores.

In addition, Tesla in May offered 0.99 percent financing for up to six years on the Model Y. In June, it offered interest as low as 1.99 percent for three years on the rear-wheel-drive Model 3. Typical new-vehicle interest rates average just over 7 percent, according to Edmunds.com.

Also during the quarter, Tesla knocked roughly a third off the price of its “Full Self Driving” system — which can’t drive itself and so drivers must remain alert and be ready to intervene — to $8,000 from $12,000, according to the company website.

Jessica Caldwell, head of insights for Edmunds.com, said Tesla is having trouble in a market where most early adopters already have EVs, and mainstream buyers are more skeptical that electric cars can meet their needs.

Tesla's “haphazard” price cuts don't work as well as they once did because consumers now expect them, she said. “We’ve seen the automaker exhaust its bag of tricks by lowering prices and increasing incentives to spur demand without much success in the U.S. market,” Caldwell said.

Also, Tesla's aging model lineup doesn’t look much different than it did years ago she said. And with price cuts, used Tesla prices tumbled. Anyone wanting a Tesla can get a far better deal buying a used one, Caldwell said.

Caldwell doesn’t see any big catalyst this year that would boost Tesla sales unless gasoline prices spike, and she said Musk's shift to the right since taking over Twitter has hurt the brand's image.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note to investors Tuesday that second-quarter sales were a “huge comeback performance” for Tesla. “In a nutshell, the worst is in the rearview mirror for Tesla,” he wrote. The company, he wrote, cut 10 percent to 15 percent of its workforce to reduce costs and preserve profitability. “It appears better days are now ahead as the growth story returns,” Ives wrote.

In its letter to investors in January, Tesla predicted “notably lower” sales growth this year. The letter said Tesla is between two big growth waves, one from global expansion of the Models 3 and Y, and a second coming from the Model 2, a new, smaller and less expensive vehicle with an unknown release date.

Tesla is scheduled to unveil a purpose built robotaxi at an event on Aug. 8.

Sysco recently took delivery of 10 heavy-duty, electric-powered trucks for its Houston operations. Photo via LinkedIn

Sysco introduces new fleet of electric trucks at Houston operations

ev moves

Houston-based food distributor Sysco is helping fuel the future of electric vehicles.

Sysco recently took delivery of 10 heavy-duty, electric-powered trucks for its Houston operations. With this delivery, Sysco now operates nearly 120 electric vehicles (EVs) around the world.

In 2023, Sysco unveiled its first EV hub, which is in Riverside, California. The hub will eventually feature:

40 electric-powered refrigerated trailers
40 electric-powered semi-trucks
40 charging stations

The hub also will include 4 megawatt-hours of battery storage and 1.4 additional megawatts of solar power generation.

Aside from Houston and Riverside, Sysco uses EVs in Baltimore; Boston; Baltimore; Denver; Long Island, New York; Los Angeles; and Fremont, California. Its EV fleet extends to Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

Sysco announced in 2021 that it planned to operate nearly 800 electric-powered semi-trucks by 2026. Houston Freightliner is a partner in this initiative.

In all, Sysco aims to electrify 35 percent of its U.S. tractor fleet.

Around the world, EVs are contributing to Sysco’s goal of reducing direct emissions by 27.5 percent by 2030.

“We are proud of our progress to scale our electric truck fleet and continue our journey to meet our climate goal,” Neil Russell, chief administrative officer at Sysco, says in a news release. “This work is important to many of our customers who have also set goals to reduce emissions.”

It's the first time the company has used EVs in any of its upstream sites, including the Permian Basin. Photo via exxonmobil.com

ExxonMobil revs up EV pilot in Permian Basin

seeing green

ExxonMobil has upgraded its Permian Basin fleet of trucks with sustainability in mind.

The Houston-headquartered company announced a new pilot program last week, rolling out 10 new all-electric pickup trucks at its Cowboy Central Delivery Point in southeast New Mexico. It's the first time the company has used EVs in any of its upstream sites, including the Permian Basin.

“We expect these EV trucks will require less maintenance, which will help reduce cost, while also contributing to our plan to achieve net zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions in our Permian operations by 2030," Kartik Garg, ExxonMobil's New Mexico production manager, says in a news release.

ExxonMobil has already deployed EV trucks at its facilities in Baytown, Beaumont, and Baton Rouge, but the Permian Basin, which accounts for about half of ExxonMobil's total U.S. oil production, is a larger site. The company reports that "a typical vehicle there can log 30,000 miles a year."

The EV rollout comes after the company announced last year that it plans to be a major supplier of lithium for EV battery technology.

At the end of last year, ExxonMobil increased its financial commitment to implementing more sustainable solutions. The company reported that it is pursuing more than $20 billion of lower-emissions opportunities through 2027.

Cowboys and the EVs of the Permian Basin | ExxonMobilyoutu.be

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Houston geothermal company picks Nevada site for commercial-scale project

coming soon

Sage Geosystems, a Houston-based developer of geothermal power systems, has chosen a site in Nevada for its commercial-scale Project Vector facility.

The company’s two-well enhanced geothermal system (EGS) will deliver around-the-clock geothermal heat to Ormat Technologies’ Blue Mountain geothermal power plant in Winnemucca, Nevada.

The startup expects to begin drilling the first well later this year, with the first electricity to be generated in 2027 and full-scale production to start in 2028.

In the Nevada system, fluid will circulate through an engineered subsurface reservoir, absorb heat from the surrounding rock and return heat to the surface. The heat will be delivered to the Blue Mountain plant for conversion into electricity.

Project Vector builds on the performance of Sage’s SMECI facility in South Texas. That facility’s results, combined with Sage’s digital twin platform, will be used to shape to the design and development of Project Vector.

Project Vector supports Sage’s growing commercial pipeline, including a 150-megawatt geothermal power agreement with Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram.

“Blue Mountain is an ideal location for Sage to take the next step in continuing to commercialize our proprietary EGS approach,” Jason Peart, chief operating officer at Sage, said in a release. “By delivering geothermal heat into an existing power plant, Project Vector can demonstrate the model for bringing firm, 24/7 geothermal power to market at scale.”

Project Vector extends Sage’s relationship with Ormat.

In August 2025, Sage and Ormat agreed to accelerate commercialization of Sage’s geothermal technology at an Ormat power plant. This January, Ormat co-led Sage’s $97 million Series B funding round.

Sage, founded in 2020, has raised about $159 million across three funding rounds.

As the startup ramps up its ESG platform, Sage is targeting data centers as customers, among other large-scale users of electricity.

“The energy needs are huge, and they need it now,” CEO Cindy Taff said on Data Center Frontiers’ podcast. “They can’t depend on the grid anymore.”

Houston’s power advantage: Key takeaways from 2026 HETI Power Summit

The view from heti

Power has become a defining economic development issue as electricity demand rises across Texas.

Industrial expansion, advanced manufacturing, AI and data center growth are increasing the importance of reliable, affordable power delivered on the timelines major projects require.

The 2026 HETI Power Summit, titled Houston’s Power Advantage: Competing for Large-Load Growth, brought together leaders from utilities, power producers, large energy customers, technology and infrastructure providers, professional services firms and the public sector to examine how Houston can meet this moment.

Across keynotes, research report-outs, panel discussions and a fireside chat, a consistent theme emerged: Houston’s power advantage comes from the region’s ability to align utilities, customers, infrastructure, flexible demand, emerging solutions and regional partners around reliable, affordable and timely growth.

Reliability and Readiness

Public Utility Commission of Texas Commissioner Kathleen Jackson opened the summit by emphasizing reliability as the foundation for continued growth as Texas electricity demand rises.

Commissioner Jackson underscored the importance of sustained planning and investment to support new industrial, manufacturing and digital demand while maintaining a reliable power system. Remarks framed the morning’s broader discussion of how Houston can pair reliability with speed, affordability and long-term system readiness.

Scott Cockerham of FTI Consulting previewed HETI and FTI’s “Texas Power Market & Industry Assessment”. The research identifies accessibility, reliability, affordability, market flexibility and infrastructure readiness as key dimensions of regional competitiveness.

Leaders from FTI Consulting, Kroll, AWS and Constellation also discussed factors shaping major investment decisions, including reliability, infrastructure timelines, cost certainty, site readiness, community support and regional coordination.

For large customers, these factors must translate into credible project-level execution. Confidence in system performance, energization timelines and infrastructure plans can materially influence major capital commitments.

Building for the Houston We Want to Become

Jason Ryan of CenterPoint Energy challenged participants to plan now for the infrastructure needed to support Houston’s next phase of growth. Drawing on the idea that “what got you here won’t get you there,” Ryan urged the region to build infrastructure for “the Houston we want to become” and stay ahead of large-load demand.

A fireside discussion between CenterPoint Energy and Foxconn brought that challenge to the customer level. The conversation explored how early coordination between utilities and large customers can help advanced manufacturing projects move from site selection and planning to construction and operation.

Long-term growth will require continued investment in generation, transmission and distribution. In the near term, better use of existing infrastructure can create additional capacity.

HETI also shared findings from its Role of Efficiency & Demand Response to Meet Near-Term Regional Power Demand report. Energy efficiency can lower baseline electricity use, while demand response can shift or reduce demand during critical periods. Combined with supply-side investment, these tools can create grid headroom as longer-term infrastructure advances.

The summit’s closing panel, featuring leaders from Amperon, Enchanted Rock, EY and Quanta Services, expanded the discussion to emerging solutions. Panelists explored modular and flexible generation, advanced forecasting, grid intelligence and greater coordination among utilities, customers, infrastructure providers and communities.

Houston’s broader regional power landscape adds another dimension. Entergy Texas President and CEO Eli Viamontes described Southeast Texas as experiencing an “extraordinary trifecta of residential, industrial and data center growth.” His remarks highlighted how the MISO-facing portion of the region complements Houston’s ERCOT strengths through utility planning, generation and infrastructure investment, resource adequacy and coordination with major industrial customers.

Together, these approaches point to a broader strategy: invest for long-term demand while using flexibility, technology and regional coordination to create capacity for growth today.

From Power Advantage to Economic Advantage

Taken together, the Power Summit discussions point to a clear priority for Houston: translating power market and infrastructure strengths into coordinated execution.

Priority areas include earlier infrastructure planning, stronger site and project readiness, clearer pathways from projected demand to reliably served load, expanded efficiency and flexibility, and sustained coordination among utilities, customers, policymakers, communities, technology providers and economic development organizations.

HETI is advancing this work through research and convening efforts focused on Houston’s evolving power needs and economic competitiveness.

The 2026 Power Summit reinforced Houston’s strong foundation for power-intensive growth and the importance of aligning investment, reliability, flexibility and regional coordination around the next generation of economic opportunity.

———

This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. Gain more insights from HETI’s Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Report.

Houston geothermal companies secure more than $45M in DOE funding

geothermal boost

Three Houston-based companies—Fervo Energy, Quaise Energy and XGS Energy—have been selected by the U.S. Department of Energy to advance geothermal technologies and field tests.

Combined, the companies will receive more than $45 million in funding from the DOE's Next-Generation Geothermal Field Tests and Geothermal Resource Characterization and Confirmation initiative. The projects were among 21 selected from around the country to receive a total of $99 million.

Fervo was selected to conduct two projects under the initiative for approximately $20 million in funding. For the first project, the geothermal unicorn, which achieved first power at its flagship geothermal plant last week, will drill and complete enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) wells in Elmore County, Idaho, and will deploy high-temperature seismic monitoring technology at record-high temperatures at or above 200°C.

For the second project, the company will conduct an appraisal drilling campaign at a "high-priority" site in Humboldt County, Nevada, to confirm if the reservoir is suitable for EGS development.

“We are grateful to the Department of Energy for funding these grants. We believe this is a clear indication from the federal government that expanding geothermal energy to new states is a national priority,” Jack Norbeck, CTO and co-founder of Fervo Energy, said in a news release. “We expect this funding to accelerate Fervo’s pipeline and advance the cutting edge of geothermal technologies.”

Fresh off a $180 million Series B, Quaise Energy also received $25 million in DOE funding through the initiative to support its Project Obsidian super hot geothermal plant in Central Oregon. The funding will go toward the analysis of the drilling, stimulation and flow results of the first two wells at the Project Obsidian site, which will help the company optimize its third well on site.

“This DOE support is a recognition of what we are building at Quaise and the progress we are making in the field, including the confirmation well currently being drilled at Project Obsidian,” Carlos Araque, CEO and president of Quaise, said in a release. “Our ambition has always been to make superhot geothermal a commercial reality, and Project Obsidian is where we first deliver on that promise.”

XGS Energy, which recently relocated its headquarters from Palo Alto, California, to Houston, was also selected for an exploration drilling project. The company will drill a deep vertical appraisal well in Socorro County, New Mexico, to determine if the site is a viable source of geothermal energy. XGS had not disclosed a funding estimate at press time.

The full value of the proposed DOE funding is subject to completion of award negotiations, according to Quaise.

Data from these projects will be shared through DOE’s Geothermal Data Repository (GDR), providing valuable information to researchers and stakeholders in the geothermal sector.

“This is an excellent example of how public and private entities can partner together to scale critical energy technologies,” Tim Latimer, CEO and co-founder of Fervo, added in a release. “With this funding, the Department of Energy is making important investments to help Americans across the country gain access to clean, affordable geothermal energy.”

Other geothermal companies and institutions from around the country will complete the 17 remaining projects. They include:

Denver-based 400C Energy Inc.
Salt Lake City-based AlterG Resources
Denver-based DAVINCI EP LLC
Anchorage-based GeoAlaska LLC
Oklahoma City-based GreenFire Energy Inc.
Virginia-based Hexagon Energy LLC
Virginia-based INTEK Inc.
Chicago-based Invenergy Geothermal Development LLC
Massachusetts-based LiPower Geothermal LLC
Fort Worth-based Oriah Geothermal LLC
Reno-based Raser Power Systems LLC
Santa Fe-based San Ildefonso Services LLC
Salt Lake City-based The University of Utah
Reno-based TLS Geothermics Corp.
Salt Lake City-based Zanskar Geothermal and Minerals

Read more about the full list of projects here.

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