EV surge could shutter 40 refineries by 2040, Wood Mackenzie report warns

ev outlook

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040. Photo via Unsplash

The rise of electric vehicles could spell trouble for Houston’s oil and gas sector, a new report suggests. But the oil and gas industry stands to benefit from potential sluggishness in U.S. adoption of EVs.

If worldwide EV adoption rises as expected, global oil demand could fall by five million barrels per day by 2040, accelerating the closure of about 40 oil refineries, says the report, published by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The firm’s North American hub is in Houston.

Those closures might spell trouble for refinery operators with a sizable Houston-area presence, including BP, ExxonMobil, Marathon, Saudi Aramco, and Valero. In 2025, the five companies collectively earned roughly $33 billion from downstream operations, including refineries. One caveat: Each company assigns a different definition to “downstream.”

Refineries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, including the U.S. but excluding Middle Eastern heavyweights, “are most at risk due to their high energy costs and carbon prices,” the Wood Mackenzie report says.

On the flip side, an abundant U.S. oil supply means American drivers have less of an incentive to switch from traditional cars to electric vehicles, despite stubbornly high fuel prices, according to the report.

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040, up from three percent in 2025. That compares with a global forecast of 25 percent in 2040, up from 4 percent last year.

Another U.S. roadblock to EV adoption cited in the report: the country’s relative lack of advanced battery manufacturing.

“Without advanced battery technologies, the U.S. auto sector is at risk of ceding its home market to non-Chinese EVs and falling behind competitors internationally,” the report says.

Furthermore, according to the report, Chinese investment in EV manufacturing in the U.S. probably will remain a no-go and tariffs on Chinese EV imports likely won’t be lifted, even if Democrats resurrected EV incentives following a White House win in 2028.

“Competition among EV manufacturers in international markets will only intensify,” the report notes. “Companies that can offer competitive products in high-growth markets will be best positioned for long-term success.”

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Jian Shi, Chuyue Wang and Kailai Wang have developed a model that aims to make recycling e-waste economically viable and help recover critical minerals needed for EVs. Photo courtesy UH.

Houston researchers propose model to scale e-waste recycling

critical research

The “missing link” in critical minerals may have been in our junk drawers all along, according to new research from the University of Houston.

Jian Shi, an associate professor in the UH Cullen College of Engineering, and his team have unveiled a new supply chain model that aims to make e-waste economically viable and could help make large-scale recycling possible.

Shi, along with professor Kailai Wang and graduate researcher Chuyue Wang, published the work in a recent issue of Nature. Their study outlines how gold, lithium and cobalt from discarded electronics can be kept circulating in the U.S. through the process of “urban mining.” It was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) through the Vehicle Technologies Office.

The team’s research found that e-waste is the fastest-growing solid waste stream in the world. When waste from smartphones or tablets is left unmanaged, the devices can leak hazardous waste and pose significant fire risks due to aging batteries. Additionally, when they are shipped off to foreign landfills, the U.S. loses the potential to recycle or reuse the critical minerals left inside.

“A lot of people have iPads or old iPhones sitting in their drawers right now, and that’s a waste of a critical resource,” Shi said in a news release. “Urban mining allows us to extract the same high-value materials found in traditional mines without the environmental destruction. More importantly, it helps secure our domestic supply chain for the technologies of tomorrow.”

According to UH, recycling e-waste has not succeeded in the U.S. due to a fragmented recycling system, in which manufacturers, collectors and recyclers operate separately, driving up costs.

The UH team's research looks to change that.

In the study, the researchers modeled streamlined recycling efforts by mapping the interactions between manufacturers and independent recycling markets. Their dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) model identified how these players can transition from competitors to partners, which can distribute profits more equitably and make recycling efforts more financially attractive.

According to UH, the research has particular significance due to the growing demand for electronic vehicles and their batteries.

“We can improve the performance of the entire recycling ecosystem and make the profit distribution more balanced,” Wang said in the release. “This ensures that the materials we need for EVs and advanced electronics stay right here in the U.S.”

“By making recycling work at scale, we aren’t just cleaning up waste,” Shi added. “We’re building a foundation that benefits both our national security and our economy.”

The first Alto EVs have hit the road in Houston. Photo via Alto

Texas ride-hailing app grows Houston fleet with EV additions

rolling out

Your next Alto ride might be electric. The Dallas-based car service has rolled out electric vehicles in Houston.

Alto, founded in Dallas in 2018 and launched in Houston in 2020, elevates ridesharing with its own fleet of company-owned, clearly branded SUVs driven by its staff of drivers. The company previously announced its plans to evolve its fleet into being completely electric, and the first EVs have hit the road, according to a company email.

"Our EV additions to the Houston fleet mark an important moment in our commitment to significantly reduce Alto's environmental impact," reads the email sent on September 5.

The new cars offer similar features to its existing fleet, including legroom, phone chargers, water bottles for riders, and more. Plus, the new cars — Kia EV9 — boast a quieter ride.

Alto has consistently grown in its Texas markets — which include Houston and Dallas — over the years, including expanding into Houston's suburbs.

Will Coleman, CEO of Alto, previously wrote in a guest column for InnovationMap that his priorities for starting the company included safety — but also sustainability. For years, Alto has been expressing interest in introducing EVs, with plans of having a completely electric fleet.

"This EV vision is one example of how a rideshare company can build a better and more accountable industry, and these steps also give Houstonians a more responsible and sustainable transportation solution," Coleman writes.

The Austin, Texas, company said Tuesday that it sold 443,956 vehicles from April through June, down 4.8 percent from 466,140 sold the same period a year ago. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla sales fall for second straight quarter despite price cuts, but decline not as bad as expected

by the numbers

Tesla's global sales fell for the second straight quarter despite price cuts and low-interest financing offers, another sign of weakening demand for the company's products and electric vehicles overall.

The Austin, Texas, company said Tuesday that it sold 443,956 vehicles from April through June, down 4.8 percent from 466,140 sold the same period a year ago. But the sales were better than the 436,000 that analysts had expected.

The better-than-expected deliveries pushed Tesla's stock up 10 percent Tuesday. The stock is down about 7 percent so far this year, but it has nearly erased larger losses from prior months. Tesla shares had been down more than 40 percent earlier in the year, but are up more than 60 percent since hitting a 52-week low in April.

Demand for EVs worldwide is slowing, but they're still growing for most automakers. Tesla, with an aging model lineup and relatively high average selling prices, has struggled more than other manufacturers. Still it retained the title of the world's top-selling electric vehicle maker.

For the first half of the year, Tesla sold 830,766 electric vehicles worldwide, handily beating China's BYD, which sold 726,153 EVs.

Tesla also sold over 33,000 more vehicles during the second quarter than it produced, which should reduce the company's inventory on hand at its stores.

Tesla's sales decline comes as competition is increasing from legacy and startup automakers, which are trying to nibble away at the company's market share. Most other automakers will report U.S. sales figures later Tuesday.

Tesla gave no explanation for the sales decline, which is a harbinger of what to expect when it posts second-quarter earnings on July 23.

Nearly all of Tesla’s sales came from the smaller and less-expensive Models 3 and Y, with the company selling only 21,551 of its more expensive models that include X and S, as well as the new Cybertruck.

The sales decline came despite Tesla knocking $2,000 off the prices of three of its five models in the United States in April. The company cut the prices of the Model Y, Tesla’s most popular model and the top-selling electric vehicle in the U.S., and also of the Models X and S.

The April cuts reduced the starting price for a Model Y to $42,990 and to $72,990 for a Model S and $77,990 for a Model X. Last week, Tesla lopped $2,340 off the $38,990 base price of some newly revamped Model 3s that were in the inventory shipped to its stores.

In addition, Tesla in May offered 0.99 percent financing for up to six years on the Model Y. In June, it offered interest as low as 1.99 percent for three years on the rear-wheel-drive Model 3. Typical new-vehicle interest rates average just over 7 percent, according to Edmunds.com.

Also during the quarter, Tesla knocked roughly a third off the price of its “Full Self Driving” system — which can’t drive itself and so drivers must remain alert and be ready to intervene — to $8,000 from $12,000, according to the company website.

Jessica Caldwell, head of insights for Edmunds.com, said Tesla is having trouble in a market where most early adopters already have EVs, and mainstream buyers are more skeptical that electric cars can meet their needs.

Tesla's “haphazard” price cuts don't work as well as they once did because consumers now expect them, she said. “We’ve seen the automaker exhaust its bag of tricks by lowering prices and increasing incentives to spur demand without much success in the U.S. market,” Caldwell said.

Also, Tesla's aging model lineup doesn’t look much different than it did years ago she said. And with price cuts, used Tesla prices tumbled. Anyone wanting a Tesla can get a far better deal buying a used one, Caldwell said.

Caldwell doesn’t see any big catalyst this year that would boost Tesla sales unless gasoline prices spike, and she said Musk's shift to the right since taking over Twitter has hurt the brand's image.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note to investors Tuesday that second-quarter sales were a “huge comeback performance” for Tesla. “In a nutshell, the worst is in the rearview mirror for Tesla,” he wrote. The company, he wrote, cut 10 percent to 15 percent of its workforce to reduce costs and preserve profitability. “It appears better days are now ahead as the growth story returns,” Ives wrote.

In its letter to investors in January, Tesla predicted “notably lower” sales growth this year. The letter said Tesla is between two big growth waves, one from global expansion of the Models 3 and Y, and a second coming from the Model 2, a new, smaller and less expensive vehicle with an unknown release date.

Tesla is scheduled to unveil a purpose built robotaxi at an event on Aug. 8.

Sysco recently took delivery of 10 heavy-duty, electric-powered trucks for its Houston operations. Photo via LinkedIn

Sysco introduces new fleet of electric trucks at Houston operations

ev moves

Houston-based food distributor Sysco is helping fuel the future of electric vehicles.

Sysco recently took delivery of 10 heavy-duty, electric-powered trucks for its Houston operations. With this delivery, Sysco now operates nearly 120 electric vehicles (EVs) around the world.

In 2023, Sysco unveiled its first EV hub, which is in Riverside, California. The hub will eventually feature:

40 electric-powered refrigerated trailers
40 electric-powered semi-trucks
40 charging stations

The hub also will include 4 megawatt-hours of battery storage and 1.4 additional megawatts of solar power generation.

Aside from Houston and Riverside, Sysco uses EVs in Baltimore; Boston; Baltimore; Denver; Long Island, New York; Los Angeles; and Fremont, California. Its EV fleet extends to Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

Sysco announced in 2021 that it planned to operate nearly 800 electric-powered semi-trucks by 2026. Houston Freightliner is a partner in this initiative.

In all, Sysco aims to electrify 35 percent of its U.S. tractor fleet.

Around the world, EVs are contributing to Sysco’s goal of reducing direct emissions by 27.5 percent by 2030.

“We are proud of our progress to scale our electric truck fleet and continue our journey to meet our climate goal,” Neil Russell, chief administrative officer at Sysco, says in a news release. “This work is important to many of our customers who have also set goals to reduce emissions.”

It's the first time the company has used EVs in any of its upstream sites, including the Permian Basin. Photo via exxonmobil.com

ExxonMobil revs up EV pilot in Permian Basin

seeing green

ExxonMobil has upgraded its Permian Basin fleet of trucks with sustainability in mind.

The Houston-headquartered company announced a new pilot program last week, rolling out 10 new all-electric pickup trucks at its Cowboy Central Delivery Point in southeast New Mexico. It's the first time the company has used EVs in any of its upstream sites, including the Permian Basin.

“We expect these EV trucks will require less maintenance, which will help reduce cost, while also contributing to our plan to achieve net zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions in our Permian operations by 2030," Kartik Garg, ExxonMobil's New Mexico production manager, says in a news release.

ExxonMobil has already deployed EV trucks at its facilities in Baytown, Beaumont, and Baton Rouge, but the Permian Basin, which accounts for about half of ExxonMobil's total U.S. oil production, is a larger site. The company reports that "a typical vehicle there can log 30,000 miles a year."

The EV rollout comes after the company announced last year that it plans to be a major supplier of lithium for EV battery technology.

At the end of last year, ExxonMobil increased its financial commitment to implementing more sustainable solutions. The company reported that it is pursuing more than $20 billion of lower-emissions opportunities through 2027.

Cowboys and the EVs of the Permian Basin | ExxonMobilyoutu.be

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Meet the 80+ startups pitching at Houston Energy and Climate Week

Pitch Lineup

One of the highlights from Houston Energy and Climate Week is hearing directly from the up-and-coming founders working to reshape the energy landscape.

This year, dozens of startups from Brazil to Berkeley and from right here in the Bayou City will compete for cash prizes and bragging rights while showcasing their concepts at HECW pitch events. Here's who's pitching at some of the week's signature competitions. Check back after the week wraps to see who takes home the top prizes.

Cypher Pilotathon and Startup Showcase — Sept. 15 at POST Houston

At the Cypher Pilotathon, founders will give their best 7-minute pilot pitches to industry experts and a live audience, followed by Q&A. This year's event will center around the theme, "The NEW Energy Industrial Revolution." Here's who's pitching:

Houston-based Aeromine Technologies, a distributed wind turbine company
San Francisco-based Ammobia, which develops low-carbon, energy source-agnostic ammonia
Birmingham, Alabama-based Ashipa Electric, a renewable energy semiconductor and microgrid manufacturer
Houston-based BigMachine AI, an AI engineer for industrial projects
Houston-based Corrolytics, which has developed corrosion detection technology
São Paulo, Brazil-based GLR Tech, which has developed a compact, scalable, low-cost platform for industrial emissions control
Monreal-based Green Graphite Technologies, which produces battery-grade graphite in a cost-effective and sustainable manner
Boston-based KIRA, which converts industrial wastewater into ultrapure water and solids
Edinburgh-based Mocean Energy, which works to deliver renewable ocean energy to power offshore industry
Los Angeles-based Mote, which works to convert agricultural and forestry waste into clean energy
Berkeley-based Oleo, which is developing a biomanufacturing platform to transform biomass waste into carbon-negative, cost-competitive oil feedstocks for advanced fuels
Oslo, Norway-based OTee, an automation machinery manufacturer
Houston-based Resollant, which is working to produce battery-grade graphite and ultra-low-cost hydrogen
Tulsa-based RyuGen Energy Solutions Inc., which works to turn underused commercial power into distributed AI infrastructure
Berkeley-based Sunchem, which provides precision separation of critical metals from sources including e-waste, evaporator scrap, solar panels, and mining ores and concentrates

Twenty-two other startups will participate in the startup showcase. See the full list here.

Greentown Climatetech Summit — Sept. 16 at the Continental Club

Ten Greentown startups will compete for $25,000 in prizes at Greentown Climatetech Summit's signature pitch event. Judges include Dave Dreessen, of Chevron Technology Ventures’ Future Energy Fund, and Jon Greene, of New Climate Ventures. Here's who's pitching:

Houston-based AMPeers, which manufactures high-temperature superconducting wire for high-power electrification infrastructure
Detroit-based AmHyTech, which enables ambient-condition liquid ammonia handling for fertilizer and fuel applications
Houston- and Zurich-based Biosimo, which converts biomass-based ethanol into lower-carbon acetic acid and acetyls
Houston-based Capwell Services Inc., which captures methane from low-flow oil and gas vents and returns it to market
Cleveland- and Ghana-based Cocoa Potash, which extracts potassium carbonate and fertilizer from cocoa, coconut, and palm-nut waste
Houston-based Solidec, which electrolyzes air, water, and electricity into onsite hydrogen peroxide.
Houston-based Focis AI, which converts industrial laser scans into a queryable digital twin of refineries and plants
Calgary-based Kanin Energy, which develops and finances waste heat to power projects for industrial clients
San Francisco-based FelixFusion, which models grid connection points so developers can validate interconnection in minutes
Houston-based Pike Robotics, which deploys its Wall-Eye robot to inspect hazardous tanks without taking assets offline

TEX-E Student Innovators will also pitch earlier in the day-long event, and an additional five Greentown startups will compete for $1,000 during the Lightning Pitch Competition. Find more information here.

Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum — Sept. 17 at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business

Houston-based companies Aquanta Vision, Capwell Services and Deep Anchor Solutions will be joined by startups from around the world to compete to be named one of the 10 Most Promising Companies at the 23rd Energy Tech Venture Forum. Additional companies will participate in office hours.

See the full list of nearly 50 companies pitching here.

Halliburton Labs Pitch Day — Sept. 18 at the Ion

Halliburton Labs Pitch Day brings together a curated group of early‑stage energy technology investors and 16 participating companies. The event is invitation‑only. Here's who's pitching:

Australia-based Aquafortus, which has developed a non-thermal liquid to liquid desalination technology for resource recovery from wastewater brine
Calgary-based Ayrton Energy, which has developed a proprietary technology that enables hydrogen to be stored within an organic liquid, which can be handled and transported like gasoline
Illinois-based Cache Energy, which is developing electrified heat and long-term energy storage
New York-based Cella, which is working to advance subsurface mineralization of CO2
Miami-based Chemergy, which has developed a patented process to convert wet organic and plastic wastes into green hydrogen
Tennessee-based Enexor BioEnergy, which is developing on-site waste-to-bioenergy conversion systems
Reno-based Espiku, which focuses on water and minerals recovery from industrially produced water
UK-based LiNa Energy, which is developing low-cost, solid-state sodium battery technology
Michigan-based Marel Power Solutions, which is developing advanced cooling technology to redefine power-stacks
California-based Mitico, which is developing technology to collect and purify carbon dioxide at the source, post-combustion, before it enters the atmosphere
Singapore-based Nandina REM, which turns end-of-life assets into new, reliable, high-performance carbon fiber materials for the aviation, aerospace and defense industries
California-based Noon Energy, which is developing a 100-plus-hour ultra-long-duration battery storage
Silicon Valley-based Proof Energy, which is commercializing next-generation metallic solid oxide fuel cell (M-SOFC) technology.
Berkeley-based Sunchem, which provides precision separation of critical metals from sources including e-waste, evaporator scrap, solar panels, and mining ores and concentrates
Singapore-based Sungreen, an advanced materials company pioneering nanotechnology-based coatings for high-efficiency, low-cost electrodes
Minneapolis-based Syncris, which is developing next-generation modular power systems designed for the most demanding environments

Read more about Houston Energy and Climate Week and its programming in Energy Capital's event preview.

KBR's Mission Technology Solutions spinoff awarded $1.1B NOAA contract

A Big Deal

Amid a major spinoff, Houston-based KBR's Mission Technology Solutions business has been awarded a five-year contract for up to $1.1 billion from NOAA’s National Weather Service to help predict and combat extreme weather conditions.

Under the follow-on Commercial Data Program National Mesonet Program (CDP NMP) contract, KBR will provide weather and observational data from commercial stations, university and research campuses, and other non-federal providers nationwide. The information collected will assist in predicting severe temperatures and high-impact weather conditions like extreme storms.

"This award underscores KBR's proven track record of delivering vital data that strengthens national forecasting capabilities," Todd May, KBR’s senior vice president of Mission Technology Solutions, said in a news release.

According to a separate release from NOAA, the contract expands upon KBR's existing relationship with the agency. KBR will work with about 70 private industry partners on services such as data recording, collection, aggregation and processing, and will lead the CDP NMP's "network of networks."

“NOAA gathers environmental information from a wide variety of sources, and a growing list of private industry partners have joined our agency to collect this vital data,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in the release. “This agreement streamlines the process that turns raw data into the gold-standard forecasts that Americans depend on.”

KBR will utilize its Speed to Mission ImpactSM technology for the project to supply data from across regions, measurement types, and system configurations. Both KBR and NOAA say the expanded data collection contract will help the agency create more accurate and timely forecasts, particularly for severe weather and extreme events, while also creating a path for new weather-observation technologies.

KBR has supported the CDP NMP for more than nine years. The program will be managed in Greenbelt, Maryland.

"We're driving expanded integration of commercial sensor and data sources into this platform and are honored to know our work helps forecasters give their communities earlier warnings and more time to prepare for dangerous weather,” May added in a release.

KBR’s Mission Technology Solutions business will be rebranded as Trinzic after its planned spin-off, the company announced last month. The spin-off is expected to close in January 2027.

Trinzic will work as an independent, publicly traded company focused on technology and engineering services for the space and national security sector. KBR will remain a separate publicly traded company that will focus on sustainable technology and services to support the energy transition.

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This article originally appeared on InnovationMap.com.

Houston researchers map data center growth, trends in new interactive platform

data center development

Have you ever wondered why data centers are located where they are?

Energy experts at Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies (CES) have developed a tool to help answer that question.

Rice researchers at the CES, part of Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, have created an interactive map to track data center growth and energy infrastructure in the United States.

Kenneth B. Medlock III, Miaomiao Rimmer, Anmol Mital and Beck Edwards developed the tool, known as the U.S. Data Centers and Infrastructure map. It aims to provide a comprehensive view of the factors shaping where data centers are located, from power and water costs to infrastructure, public policy and local sentiment.

“The map lets you see why data centers are being built where they are by connecting the dots between infrastructure, power costs, water availability, public policy and public sentiment across different regions,” Medlock, senior director at CES, said in a news release. “You can zoom out and look at the whole U.S. to easily realize why data centers locations are being chosen—the price of power and water matters.”

The tool maps information on data center locations against other factors like energy, water, economics and politics. It also shows existing infrastructure in the area, including electric transmission lines, power plants, and fiber-optic networks, and provides information on water stress, electricity prices and natural gas prices.

According to Rice, the map will be updated in real time and currently includes information on existing data centers and proposed data centers.

Additionally, the map provides county-level analyses of news coverage and media to explore local attitudes towards the development of data centers in communities. Users can also explore political and demographic information.

According to the Pew Research Center, most data centers that are being built will appear in rural areas, with Virginia, Texas and Georgia leading the way in the number of planned facilities. Pew’s 2026 findings also noted that 38 percent of Americans live within 5 miles of at least one operational data center.

Meanwhile, Houston and Texas are poised for continued data center growth. Other reports predict that Houston’s data center capacity could more than double by 2028. Texas is home to an estimated 400-plus data centers, according to commercial real estate services provider CBRE.

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