guest column

Houston can help unlock the key to a viable energy transition

Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition. Photo via Getty Images

The future of energy holds monumental and diverse expectations. Houston’s long history as the hub for oil and gas development – combined with its growing and important role in development of renewables, carbon capture, and other energy innovation – makes it a critical meeting point for discussions on strategy, investment, and stakeholder engagement in the energy transition.

In our research last fall, we detailed how the oil and gas industry was embracing capital discipline and prioritizing shareholder returns. The industry generated record cash flows and offered a combined dividend and share buyback yield of 8 percent in 2022—the highest among all industries. The industry’s commitment to maintaining capital discipline and investing in viable low-carbon projects has only strengthened in 2023.

In fact, according to our most recent research, the global upstream oil and gas industry is estimated to generate between $2.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion in free cash flow between 2023 and 2030. With capital availability not posing a significant constraint, boardrooms of oil and gas companies are engaged in discussions regarding capital allocation between hydrocarbons and low-carbon solutions, while striving to achieve desired rates of return and meet stakeholder expectations for dividend payouts.

What are the different expectations surrounding the energy transition that could potentially influence the capital allocation strategy or deployment of this free cash flow? Deloitte recently surveyed 150 industry executives and 75 institutional investors globally to find out how respondents expect capital to be deployed either back into the core business, back to shareholders, or into new low-carbon fuels and technologies.

Interestingly, while oil and gas investors and executives tend to agree on many issues, our research also indicated several key areas where expectations of the energy transition diverge.

Energy transition investment potential

Industry executives generally continue to apply discipline in evaluating bankable low-carbon projects, giving investors a chance to direct the dividends they receive into promising energy transition technology. However, sixty percent of executives we surveyed stated that they would invest in low-carbon projects only if the internal rate of return (IRR) from these projects exceeds 12 percent to 15 percent. These returns are a minimum for the industry to fund its base hydrocarbon capital expenditures and meet dividend commitments. For context, in 2022, the average IRR for most renewable power projects was less than 8 percent. Because overall, oil and gas companies are focused on returning value to shareholders, the comparatively lower IRR on some low-carbon projects can make the choice regarding these investments more difficult.

Changes in dividend payout contingent on minimum yield

Many oil and gas executives surveyed also placed higher priority on continuing to provide high dividend yield than some of the investors surveyed. Almost 50 percent of executives indicated that, in their view, dividend cuts could drive away investors. However, about 80 percent of the investors queried said they would likely continue to hold oil and gas stocks – even if companies slightly reduced dividends – to accelerate investments in lower-carbon technologies. However, three-fourths of investors said they required at least a 3 percent dividend yield.

The right technology

About 75 percent of low-carbon technology is still experimental or in early stages of development. Executives seem to remain focused on fuels and technologies — natural gas, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage — that are adjacent to their core businesses. Investors surveyed, on the other hand, tend to favor transformative technologies, such as battery storage and electric vehicles. About 43 percent of investors emphasized battery storage as a promising area.

Our research underscores the importance of immediate action to close the innovation gap. As the Energy Capital of the World, home to 4,700 energy-related organizations, Houston is positioned to lead the way. Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition.

———

Amy Chronis is vice chair of US Energy and Chemicals Leader and Houston managing partner at Deloitte LLP.

Kate Hardin is executive director at Deloitte Research Center for Energy and Industrials.

Trending News

 

A View From HETI

Houston American Energy Corp. has acquired Abundia Global Impact Group, which converts plastic and certified biomass waste into high-quality renewable fuels. Photo via Getty Images.

Renewable energy company Houston American Energy Corp. (NYSE: HUSA) has acquired Abundia Global Impact Group, according to a news release.

Houston American reports that the acquisition will allow it to create a combined company focused on converting waste plastics into high-value, drop-in, low-carbon fuels and chemical products. It plans to move forward with Abundia’s plans for developing large-scale recycling projects, with a new facility previously announced for the Gulf Coast, located in Cedar Port Industrial Park, near the Baytown area of Houston.

New York-based Abundia used its proprietary pyrolysis process to convert plastic and certified biomass waste into high-quality renewable fuels. Its founder, Ed Gillespie, will serve as CEO of the combined company and will join HUSA’s board of directors. Peter Longo, who previously served as HUSA's CEO, will serve as chairman of the board. Lucie Harwood was named CFO and Joseph Gasik will serve as COO.

“The completion of this acquisition represents a pivotal transformation for HUSA,” Longo said in a news release. “Abundia has a commercially ready solution for converting waste into valuable fuels and chemicals, with a backlog of development opportunities utilizing proprietary technologies and key industry partnerships. This transaction gives HUSA shareholders a ready-made platform and project pipeline for future value generation as the fuel and chemical industries accelerate their adoption of low-carbon solutions and sustainable aviation fuel.”

The combined company plans to serve what it estimates is a multi-billion-dollar global demand for renewable fuels, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and recycled chemical feedstocks, according to the news release.

“This is a landmark moment for Abundia and a major step forward for the renewable industry,” Gillespie added in the release. “Joining forces with HUSA and entering the public capital markets positions us to accelerate growth, scale our technology and expand our influence within the renewable and recycling industries. I am proud of the hard work and determination of both the AGIG and HUSA teams to finalize this transaction. We look forward to delivering shareholder value and critical technologies to reduce carbon emissions.”

Houston American Energy announced the deal in March. The company also closed a $4.42 million registered direct offering in January.

Trending News