Houston can help unlock the key to a viable energy transition

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Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition. Photo via Getty Images

The future of energy holds monumental and diverse expectations. Houston’s long history as the hub for oil and gas development – combined with its growing and important role in development of renewables, carbon capture, and other energy innovation – makes it a critical meeting point for discussions on strategy, investment, and stakeholder engagement in the energy transition.

In our research last fall, we detailed how the oil and gas industry was embracing capital discipline and prioritizing shareholder returns. The industry generated record cash flows and offered a combined dividend and share buyback yield of 8 percent in 2022—the highest among all industries. The industry’s commitment to maintaining capital discipline and investing in viable low-carbon projects has only strengthened in 2023.

In fact, according to our most recent research, the global upstream oil and gas industry is estimated to generate between $2.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion in free cash flow between 2023 and 2030. With capital availability not posing a significant constraint, boardrooms of oil and gas companies are engaged in discussions regarding capital allocation between hydrocarbons and low-carbon solutions, while striving to achieve desired rates of return and meet stakeholder expectations for dividend payouts.

What are the different expectations surrounding the energy transition that could potentially influence the capital allocation strategy or deployment of this free cash flow? Deloitte recently surveyed 150 industry executives and 75 institutional investors globally to find out how respondents expect capital to be deployed either back into the core business, back to shareholders, or into new low-carbon fuels and technologies.

Interestingly, while oil and gas investors and executives tend to agree on many issues, our research also indicated several key areas where expectations of the energy transition diverge.

Energy transition investment potential

Industry executives generally continue to apply discipline in evaluating bankable low-carbon projects, giving investors a chance to direct the dividends they receive into promising energy transition technology. However, sixty percent of executives we surveyed stated that they would invest in low-carbon projects only if the internal rate of return (IRR) from these projects exceeds 12 percent to 15 percent. These returns are a minimum for the industry to fund its base hydrocarbon capital expenditures and meet dividend commitments. For context, in 2022, the average IRR for most renewable power projects was less than 8 percent. Because overall, oil and gas companies are focused on returning value to shareholders, the comparatively lower IRR on some low-carbon projects can make the choice regarding these investments more difficult.

Changes in dividend payout contingent on minimum yield

Many oil and gas executives surveyed also placed higher priority on continuing to provide high dividend yield than some of the investors surveyed. Almost 50 percent of executives indicated that, in their view, dividend cuts could drive away investors. However, about 80 percent of the investors queried said they would likely continue to hold oil and gas stocks – even if companies slightly reduced dividends – to accelerate investments in lower-carbon technologies. However, three-fourths of investors said they required at least a 3 percent dividend yield.

The right technology

About 75 percent of low-carbon technology is still experimental or in early stages of development. Executives seem to remain focused on fuels and technologies — natural gas, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage — that are adjacent to their core businesses. Investors surveyed, on the other hand, tend to favor transformative technologies, such as battery storage and electric vehicles. About 43 percent of investors emphasized battery storage as a promising area.

Our research underscores the importance of immediate action to close the innovation gap. As the Energy Capital of the World, home to 4,700 energy-related organizations, Houston is positioned to lead the way. Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition.

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Amy Chronis is vice chair of US Energy and Chemicals Leader and Houston managing partner at Deloitte LLP.

Kate Hardin is executive director at Deloitte Research Center for Energy and Industrials.

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UH report says CO2 technology could unlock 137B barrels of U.S. oil

oil recovery

A new report from the University of Houston estimates that a method known as carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) could recover roughly 137 billion barrels of U.S. oil—with Texas and the Gulf Coast poised to play a major role.

A UH Energy-produced white paper, titled “Revitalization of Mature Oil Fields: Opportunities and Challenges of CO2-EOR,” looks at how CO2-EOR could increase U.S. energy supply, reduce carbon emissions and lower the carbon intensity of oil production.

CO2-EOR injects pressurized carbon dioxide into mature oil wells to loosen and push oil trapped underground toward the production wells, allowing operators to extract oil typically left behind. The process permanently stores some CO2 underground, reducing carbon emissions and carbon intensity.

“Injected CO2 works to revitalize mature oil fields by reducing oil viscosity, improving sweep efficiency and restoring reservoir pressure, resulting in incremental oil production beyond primary and secondary recovery,” the report reads. “CO2-EOR also supports permanent carbon storage and by virtue of this will produce uniquely low-carbon intensity oil for global markets.”

Authored by Charles McConnell, executive director of UH's Center for Carbon Management in Energy, and Zhiyuan Li, a UH petroleum engineering doctoral candidate, the paper says that much of the opportunity lies right under the feet of Texas oil companies.

Texas and the Gulf Coast, including its offshore resources, have half of the nation's oil resources considered favorable for the CO2-EOR technology, the report says. According to UH, conventional U.S. oil reservoirs contain 624 billion barrels, with 434 billion barrels still underground, including about 20 billion barrels of proven reserves.

Still, the paper argues that the economics behind CO2-EOR need to be considered. The process’ success depends on a number of factors, including costs of carbon capture, field redevelopment, operations, monitoring, transportation and available tax incentives, according to UH.

Logistically, developing CO2-EOR operations out of older wells and infrastructure presents pros and cons. While using older wells can be more economical, aging infrastructure may require more frequent monitoring, inspection, repair or re-plugging, according to UH.

Ultimately, the report recommends focusing CO2-EOR development on mature oil fields with existing infrastructure, well-understood geology and reliable CO2 supplies. This approach, UH says, could help extend the productive life of existing oil fields while supporting “lower carbon intensity oil for global markets and a significant contribution to energy security.”

Read the full report here.

Amazon's EV robotaxi service Zook is set to arrive in Houston

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Amazon-owned electric robotaxi ride-hailing service Zoox is zooming into Houston in September.

Initially, self-driving retrofitted SUVs with safety drivers on board will serve downtown Houston, centrally located tourist hotspots, and certain residential neighborhoods. The SUVs will test Houston roads before Zoox rolls out autonomous robotaxis, the company says.

Zoox takes Houston for a test drive

At the outset, Zoox says, a limited number of vehicles will be driven by people to gather data about Houston roads.

“This helps create a detailed picture of each street, from road geometry to traffic lights,” the company says. “Once we have mapped out an area, we will test autonomous driving capabilities. Safety and operational readiness govern the pace of our rollout.”

Zoox says its robotaxi differs from vehicles operated by other ride-hailing services.

The all-electric robotaxi “is purpose-built for autonomous ride-hailing and designed for riders from day one,” the company says. “It has no traditional driving controls and instead has carriage-style seating, sliding glass doors, and features that let the rider personalize their journey.”

To help manage the fleet, Zoox plans to open a depot in Houston for vehicle charging and maintenance, a representative says via email.

Along with Houston, Zoox is launching this month in San Diego. The ride-hailing service already operates in Austin, Dallas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.

Zoox breaks into “sprawling” Houston market

Zoox describes Houston as its “most sprawling market to date.”

“Driving here means navigating complex service-road networks, unique merging scenarios, and challenging environmental conditions, including severe heat, heavy rain, and urban flooding,” the company says. “It’s a rigorous test of our technology across geography and terrain.”

Zoox will join two other autonomous ride-hailing services in Houston:

Waymo began rolling in Houston in February. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, owns Waymo.
Electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla began offering robotaxi services earlier this year.

A third Zoox competitor is arriving within the next year. A partnership comprising rideshare provider Uber, EV manufacturer Lucid, and autonomous technology company Nuro plans to launch a robotaxi service in Houston by mid-2027.

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

San Antonio company breaks ground on 347MW solar project outside of Houston

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Crews have broken ground on the forthcoming 347-megawatt direct-current SunRoper Solar project in Wharton County, Texas, that will add capacity to the ERCOT grid.

The solar project, which is slated to begin operations in December 2027, will provide electricity to an undisclosed Fortune 100 company under a long-term power purchase agreement, according to a news release.

San Antonio’s OCI Energy and Israel's Arava Power are developing the project. It's being financed by ING Capital and constructed by Louisiana-based WHC Inc. The project received $394 million in construction financing in February.

"SunRoper demonstrates how strategic partnerships can help meet Texas' growing demand for electricity through investments in critical energy infrastructure," Sabah Bayatli, president of OCI Energy, said in the release.

Project partners, landowners and company executives attended a groundbreaking event for SunRoper on Sept. 1 at the site outside of the Houston metro area. The companies say they are advancing this energy project to strengthen grid reliability and to help deliver affordable power to one of the highest-demand areas in the state.

“WHC is proud to serve as EPC contractor on the SunRoper Solar project, bringing our construction expertise to bear on a facility that will deliver meaningful power to the Houston region,” Randel Badeaux, president of power North America for WHC, added in the news release. “This groundbreaking reflects months of careful planning and coordination with OCI Energy, Arava Power and our project partners, and we look forward to executing a safe, high-quality build through to completion in 2027.”

OCI Energy currently operates several utility-scale solar and battery energy storage system projects outside of the San Antonio area, and has five other projects under construction outside of San Antonio and Waco, with more than 30 under development in Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, Colorado and Alberta, Canada. The company also has existing projects in New Jersey and Georgia.

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