Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition. Photo via Getty Images

The future of energy holds monumental and diverse expectations. Houston’s long history as the hub for oil and gas development – combined with its growing and important role in development of renewables, carbon capture, and other energy innovation – makes it a critical meeting point for discussions on strategy, investment, and stakeholder engagement in the energy transition.

In our research last fall, we detailed how the oil and gas industry was embracing capital discipline and prioritizing shareholder returns. The industry generated record cash flows and offered a combined dividend and share buyback yield of 8 percent in 2022—the highest among all industries. The industry’s commitment to maintaining capital discipline and investing in viable low-carbon projects has only strengthened in 2023.

In fact, according to our most recent research, the global upstream oil and gas industry is estimated to generate between $2.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion in free cash flow between 2023 and 2030. With capital availability not posing a significant constraint, boardrooms of oil and gas companies are engaged in discussions regarding capital allocation between hydrocarbons and low-carbon solutions, while striving to achieve desired rates of return and meet stakeholder expectations for dividend payouts.

What are the different expectations surrounding the energy transition that could potentially influence the capital allocation strategy or deployment of this free cash flow? Deloitte recently surveyed 150 industry executives and 75 institutional investors globally to find out how respondents expect capital to be deployed either back into the core business, back to shareholders, or into new low-carbon fuels and technologies.

Interestingly, while oil and gas investors and executives tend to agree on many issues, our research also indicated several key areas where expectations of the energy transition diverge.

Energy transition investment potential

Industry executives generally continue to apply discipline in evaluating bankable low-carbon projects, giving investors a chance to direct the dividends they receive into promising energy transition technology. However, sixty percent of executives we surveyed stated that they would invest in low-carbon projects only if the internal rate of return (IRR) from these projects exceeds 12 percent to 15 percent. These returns are a minimum for the industry to fund its base hydrocarbon capital expenditures and meet dividend commitments. For context, in 2022, the average IRR for most renewable power projects was less than 8 percent. Because overall, oil and gas companies are focused on returning value to shareholders, the comparatively lower IRR on some low-carbon projects can make the choice regarding these investments more difficult.

Changes in dividend payout contingent on minimum yield

Many oil and gas executives surveyed also placed higher priority on continuing to provide high dividend yield than some of the investors surveyed. Almost 50 percent of executives indicated that, in their view, dividend cuts could drive away investors. However, about 80 percent of the investors queried said they would likely continue to hold oil and gas stocks – even if companies slightly reduced dividends – to accelerate investments in lower-carbon technologies. However, three-fourths of investors said they required at least a 3 percent dividend yield.

The right technology

About 75 percent of low-carbon technology is still experimental or in early stages of development. Executives seem to remain focused on fuels and technologies — natural gas, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage — that are adjacent to their core businesses. Investors surveyed, on the other hand, tend to favor transformative technologies, such as battery storage and electric vehicles. About 43 percent of investors emphasized battery storage as a promising area.

Our research underscores the importance of immediate action to close the innovation gap. As the Energy Capital of the World, home to 4,700 energy-related organizations, Houston is positioned to lead the way. Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition.

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Amy Chronis is vice chair of US Energy and Chemicals Leader and Houston managing partner at Deloitte LLP.

Kate Hardin is executive director at Deloitte Research Center for Energy and Industrials.
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Oxy inks long-term agreements for 2M tons of CO2 capture, transport

carbon contracts

Houston-based Occidental has made two long-term agreements that will expand its carbon management business in the Delaware Basin and the Permian Basin.

Oxy announced Nov. 9 that it has signed agreements with two unnamed project developers to capture and transport approximately 2 million metric tons of CO2 from their existing and new natural gas processing facilities in the Delaware Basin in West Texas annually. The CO2 will be transported for use in Oxy's enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operations in the Permian Basin.

“Securing reliable, long-term sources of CO2 supports Occidental’s advanced recovery strategy to extend the productive life of existing fields and enhance recovery across our conventional and unconventional resource base,” Vishal Gupta, president and general manager of EOR Ventures at Occidental, said in a news release. “The projects, once operational, will help diversify our CO2 supply, improve access to cost-effective resources and create infrastructure that can connect additional carbon capture projects over time. Federal 45Q incentives are an important support for these investments.”

According to the release, the projects have the potential to expand to handle up to 4 million metric tons of C02 per year combined. The first shipments to Oxy are expected in 2029. The unnamed developers will fund and build the infrastructure to capture, transport and deliver the CO2 to Oxy, the company shared in the release.

Additionally, the agreement stipulates that the projects will also include the build-out of nearly 100 miles of new CO2 pipeline infrastructure. The new pipeline is planned to connect with the existing CO2 pipeline network in the Permian Basin. Oxy adds that the pipelines are being designed to handle additional future capacity to "support future conventional and unconventional recovery opportunities" of CO2.

Oxy uses the EOR process to inject stored CO2 back into a producing oil fields to boost the site's performance. The recycled CO2 displaces trapped oil and gas and is then secured in the reservoir. Oxy says that EOR combined with Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology "remove[s] an amount of CO2 equivalent to that emitted during the production and consumption of [its] products."

Oxy subsidiary 1PointFive is developing a $1.3 billion DAC project in the Midland-Odessa area that is slated to be the largest facility of its kind in the world. Known as STRATOS, it's designed to capture up to 500,000 metric tons of CO2 per year. After a component delay, 1PointFive shared in May that it would ramp up operations at the project throughout 2026.

Houston researchers win prestigious DOE early career awards

Researchers at Rice University, the University of Houston and other Texas universities have been awarded the Department of Energy’s Early Career Award for their work in quantum science, AI and more.

Each professor who received the honor will be awarded $875,000 over five years to continue their work.

The Houston-area recipients include:

  • James Shee, assistant professor of chemistry at Rice University
  • Tony Geng, assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at Rice
  • Naihao Chiang, assistant professor in the department of chemistry at the University of Houston

For Shee, the award will support his work to advance a “first principles platform to simulate the quantum dynamics of chemical systems of relevance to sustainable energy consumption and generation,” according to a news release from Rice.

“Support from the Department of Energy will enable my group to pursue the ambitious quantum chemistry development required to simulate the dynamics of transition metal-based molecular computing paradigms and multi-excitonic processes in a purely ab initio manner,” Shee said in the release.

Geng is developing next-generation AI for real-time digital twins for scientific systems. Geng and his team will make microchips that function as trainable electronic dynamical systems computing through natural, continuous evolution rather than digital instructions, according to the university.

Chiang’s work at UH addresses the DOE’s Quantum Information Science priority. Chiang leads a team that develops and applies “plasmonic-enhanced near-field optical techniques” to investigate fundamental light-matter interactions at the quantum limit before applying them to emerging technologies. In addition, the team will use AI to help with data acquisition and will utilize STEM workforce development.

Dr. Joshua Burby, an assistant professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Texas at Austin, and Junyeong Ahn, who is part of the University’s Texas Quantum Institute, also received early career awards for their work in superconducting and fusion technologies. See the full list of recipients from around the country here.

“The energy and creativity of early-career scientists is crucial for propelling scientific discovery forward. The Department of Energy is committed to nurturing this talent through programs like the Early Career Research Program,” Darío Gil, DOE under secretary for science, added in a release. “These awards provide essential resources and opportunities for collaboration, enabling these researchers to explore novel concepts and accelerate the development of solutions for our nation’s energy and scientific landscape.”

The DOE has also doled out funding to Houston researchers and companies in recent months through its Genesis Mission and geothermal initiatives.

Researchers from Rice, UH and Halliburton were named in July among the nearly 300 projects selected under the Trump administration's Genesis Mission, which aims to address some of the largest science and technology challenges in the country

In September, three Houston companies also received more than $45 million in funding from the DOE's Next-Generation Geothermal Field Tests and Geothermal Resource Characterization and Confirmation initiative to advance geothermal technologies and field tests. The projects were among 21 selected from around the country to receive a total of $99 million. Read more here.

Elon Musk's Tesla to cease cybertruck production in 2027

Tesla Talk

Tesla’s Cybertruck, the hulking, stainless-steel pickup that inspired devotion and derision with its science-fiction looks, will cease production next year.

CEO Elon Musk announced the model’s demise Friday, November 6, with a curt post on X, his social media site, simply noting production of the vehicle “will be winding down” around the middle of 2027 at its facility outside Austin, Texas. Musk said the move was to allow increased production of its Cybercab robotaxi.

For the Cybertruck, a pet project of Musk who insisted it was Tesla’s best product, it marks an unceremonious end to one of the auto industry’s most ballyhooed debuts.

“Few vehicles in history have generated as much attention,” said Armen Hareyan, whose Torque News site covers autos. “The Cybertruck became a cultural symbol – loved, mocked and impossible to ignore.”

The Cybertruck rolled onto the scene in a dramatic unveiling in 2019, when a Tesla designer hurled a metal ball at the vehicle to demonstrate its supposedly unbreakable glass, only to see it shatter. He repeated the stunt on another window of the truck only to shatter that one, too.

Even as some critics scoffed, Musk was steadfast.

“I just wanted to make a futuristic battle tank — something that looks like it could come out of ‘Blade Runner’ or ‘Aliens’ or something like that but was also highly functional,” he told Automotive News. He called it “a better sports car than a Porsche 911” and “a better truck than an F-150.”

It struck some as the perfect vehicular reflection of the brash, convention-busting Musk.

“A really controversial vehicle unveiled by a controversial individual into a market where none of the electric trucks have been able to really capture demand,” said Spencer Penn, a former Tesla executive who left the company before the Cybertruck’s launch and now heads software developer LightSource.

Penn remembered watching the unveiling and feeling initially revolted by the sight of the Cybertruck, calling its appearance “madness.” But the more he looked at it, the more his opinion changed. He signed up for a pre-sale reservation, though ended up not getting a Cybertruck when Musk’s promises of a price tag under $40,000 went unmet and the first trucks sold for double or more. Penn called the Cybertruck part of Tesla’s adventurous spirit that drives innovation.

“Some of these bets work and some of these bets don’t,” he said.

While the decision to end Cybertruck production may be driven by sales realities, it's also a reflection of Tesla’s shift to autonomous vehicles, on which Musk is betting the company’s future.

Musk once forecast he’d make 250,000 Cybertrucks a year. Kelley Blue Book estimated Tesla sold just 20,237 of the vehicles last year, down about half from the year prior. Sales through the end of September this year were down another 28%, according to Kelley Blue Book.

If the imposing, sharp-angled, dystopian appearance of the Cybertruck weren’t enough to turn many potential buyers away, Musk did so himself by allying with a panoply of right-wing figures, most notably U.S. President Donald Trump. He alienated some customers as his image morphed from eccentric innovator to polarizing force trading his billions for political influence.

Once-passionate Tesla drivers rushed to sell off their cars, or slapped stickers on the bumper declaring, “I bought this before Elon went crazy.” Organizers staged demonstrations outside Tesla showrooms and urged investors to dump shares of the company’s stock. Anger spilled into violence, with Molotov cocktails hurled at Tesla vehicles, charging stations set ablaze, and dealerships covered in graffiti.

Lovers of the Cybertruck became targets, too, subjected to shouts of “Nazi!” and extended middle fingers.

Ross Blankenship is one of them. When he first laid eyes on the Cybertruck, he felt transported to a world from his childhood, when he would play “Halo,” the sci-fi video game. He had to have it.

“I had that sort of child in me wanting to be part of something cool that would change the future of automotive,” Blankenship said in a call from his Cybertruck as he drove through Sunnyside, Colorado. Even as Blankenship found he agreed with Musk on politics, he hated seeing a vehicle he loved turned into a political symbol. “I never bought it for any other reason than the fascination with the future technology of trucks … so that was a little heartbreaking.”

He would buy another Cybertruck again in a heartbeat, calling its end “a sad moment.”