Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition. Photo via Getty Images

The future of energy holds monumental and diverse expectations. Houston’s long history as the hub for oil and gas development – combined with its growing and important role in development of renewables, carbon capture, and other energy innovation – makes it a critical meeting point for discussions on strategy, investment, and stakeholder engagement in the energy transition.

In our research last fall, we detailed how the oil and gas industry was embracing capital discipline and prioritizing shareholder returns. The industry generated record cash flows and offered a combined dividend and share buyback yield of 8 percent in 2022—the highest among all industries. The industry’s commitment to maintaining capital discipline and investing in viable low-carbon projects has only strengthened in 2023.

In fact, according to our most recent research, the global upstream oil and gas industry is estimated to generate between $2.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion in free cash flow between 2023 and 2030. With capital availability not posing a significant constraint, boardrooms of oil and gas companies are engaged in discussions regarding capital allocation between hydrocarbons and low-carbon solutions, while striving to achieve desired rates of return and meet stakeholder expectations for dividend payouts.

What are the different expectations surrounding the energy transition that could potentially influence the capital allocation strategy or deployment of this free cash flow? Deloitte recently surveyed 150 industry executives and 75 institutional investors globally to find out how respondents expect capital to be deployed either back into the core business, back to shareholders, or into new low-carbon fuels and technologies.

Interestingly, while oil and gas investors and executives tend to agree on many issues, our research also indicated several key areas where expectations of the energy transition diverge.

Energy transition investment potential

Industry executives generally continue to apply discipline in evaluating bankable low-carbon projects, giving investors a chance to direct the dividends they receive into promising energy transition technology. However, sixty percent of executives we surveyed stated that they would invest in low-carbon projects only if the internal rate of return (IRR) from these projects exceeds 12 percent to 15 percent. These returns are a minimum for the industry to fund its base hydrocarbon capital expenditures and meet dividend commitments. For context, in 2022, the average IRR for most renewable power projects was less than 8 percent. Because overall, oil and gas companies are focused on returning value to shareholders, the comparatively lower IRR on some low-carbon projects can make the choice regarding these investments more difficult.

Changes in dividend payout contingent on minimum yield

Many oil and gas executives surveyed also placed higher priority on continuing to provide high dividend yield than some of the investors surveyed. Almost 50 percent of executives indicated that, in their view, dividend cuts could drive away investors. However, about 80 percent of the investors queried said they would likely continue to hold oil and gas stocks – even if companies slightly reduced dividends – to accelerate investments in lower-carbon technologies. However, three-fourths of investors said they required at least a 3 percent dividend yield.

The right technology

About 75 percent of low-carbon technology is still experimental or in early stages of development. Executives seem to remain focused on fuels and technologies — natural gas, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage — that are adjacent to their core businesses. Investors surveyed, on the other hand, tend to favor transformative technologies, such as battery storage and electric vehicles. About 43 percent of investors emphasized battery storage as a promising area.

Our research underscores the importance of immediate action to close the innovation gap. As the Energy Capital of the World, home to 4,700 energy-related organizations, Houston is positioned to lead the way. Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition.

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Amy Chronis is vice chair of US Energy and Chemicals Leader and Houston managing partner at Deloitte LLP.

Kate Hardin is executive director at Deloitte Research Center for Energy and Industrials.
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Houston nuclear startup launches at CERAWeek, plans Texas facility

going nuclear

A new nuclear energy startup launched last month during CERAWeek in the Bayou City.

FluxPoint Energy, the new Houston- and McLean, Virginia-based company, plans to develop the nation’s first new uranium conversion facility in more than 70 years, an effort CEO and founder Mike Chilton says is critical to unlocking the next phase of nuclear energy growth.

"Policymakers, utilities, and developers increasingly point to fuel availability as a limiting factor for America's nuclear reactors—both present and future," Chilton said in a news release. "Uranium conversion has become an unacceptable chokepoint in a global supply chain still dominated by foreign providers."

Chilton has held leadership roles at Pegasus-Global Holdings and GE Verona Hitachi Global Nuclear Fuels. Rodrigo Gonzalez Arbizu serves as COO and Christopher J. Rimel as chief of staff. The Board of Advisors includes energy leaders, including Jeff Lyash, John Sharp, Jane Stricker, Jennifer Skylakos, Leo Weitzenhoff and Jay Wileman.

FluxPoint’s planned facility will convert uranium oxide into uranium hexafluoride (UF6). Although FluxPoit’s new facility is still far off, the company announced it had secured a site and completed both market and feasibility studies. The specific area has not been revealed, only that it will be in Texas.

Discussions at CERAWeek revolved around securing reliable sources of uranium.

Nuclear energy production has been stagnant or even in slight decline since the 1990s. Concerns about nuclear waste and safety, as well as prohibitive costs, have kept new plants from being built, while the widespread availability of cheap natural gas has made investing in nuclear power less profitable. Many see the technology as dangerous and outdated.

However, as energy crises become more common, companies like FluxPoint are looking to restart the nuclear energy sector. The industry got a boost under the Biden Administration thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, which set goals of adding 35 gigawatts of new capacity by 2035.

Chilton participated in a panel on the best ways to ensure American nuclear plants have access to uranium, most of which is not mined in the United States.

"America cannot lead in nuclear energy while relying on foreign-controlled fuel processing," Chilton added. "FluxPoint was created to restore a critical piece of our nation's energy infrastructure—ensuring that U.S. reactors have access to a secure, domestic fuel supply. This is about energy security, economic strength, and global leadership."

Fervo Energy leads Time’s top green tech companies of 2026

top spot

The accolades keep coming for Houston-based geothermal energy company Fervo Energy.

Fervo sits atop Time magazine’s and Statista’s 2026 list of America’s Top GreenTech Companies. Fervo ranked No. 6 on the list last year.

The ranking honors 250 companies in the U.S. based on their environmental impact, innovation and financial strength. Fervo joins five other Houston-area companies on the list.

  • No. 49 Quaise Energy, an MIT Energy Initiative spinout that’s developing a drilling system designed to convert existing power stations for geothermal power production
  • No. 71 Plus Power, which develops, owns and operates battery energy storage systems
  • No. 98 Utility Global, whose technology enables industrial decarbonization
  • No. 199 Solugen, whose technology converts plant-based feedstocks into carbon-negative chemicals
  • No. 215 Noodoe, which specializes in EV charging stations and software

Fervo says its approach to enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)—including horizontal drilling, AI-enabled drilling and exploration, advanced reservoir engineering, and fiber-optic sensing—demonstrates how validated technology can help deliver reliable zero-emission power.

“By applying drilling technology from the oil and gas industry, we have proven that we can produce 24/7 carbon-free energy resources in new geographies across the world,” Fervo co-founder and CEO Tim Latimer said last year.

Other recent recognitions for Fervo includes:

  • The 2025 Houston Innovation Awards named it Scaleup of the Year
  • MIT Technology Review put Fervo on its 2025 list of the 10 global climatech companies to watch
  • Time named Fervo one of the 100 Most Influential Companies of 2025
  • Fervo was hailed as the Global Cleantech Group 100 North American Company of the Year
  • Fervo was among Congruent Ventures’ and Silicon Valley Bank’s 50 by 2050 companies, all of which are poised to advance global decarbonization over a 25-year span
Just last month, Fervo secured $421 million in debt financing for the construction of its 500-megawatt Cape Station geothermal project in Utah. And in December, the company landed an oversubscribed $462 million Series E round of funding, pushing its valuation to an estimated $1.4 billion. Fervo filed for an IPO earlier this year.

3 strategies to strengthen the Gulf Coast as a global energy hub

The View from HETI

The Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast is the backbone of America’s energy and chemical economy. Texas produces roughly 43% of U.S. crude oil and 28% of natural gas, while Texas and Louisiana together account for about half of the nation’s refining capacity, processing 9.3 million barrels of crude per day across 50 refineries. The region also produces approximately 80% of the nation’s primary petrochemicals and ships more than $117 billion in chemical products annually from Texas alone.

This unmatched concentration of refining, petrochemical manufacturing, pipelines, ports, and technical talent makes the Gulf Coast one of the most critical energy hubs in the world. But maintaining that leadership in a rapidly evolving global market will require intentional collaboration, faster technology commercialization, and strengthened supply chain resilience.

In fall 2025, the Greater Houston Partnership’s Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI) convened national laboratories, Gulf Coast universities, and industry leaders to examine how to reinforce the region’s long-term competitiveness. Participants included Argonne, Oak Ridge, Lawrence Berkeley, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Laboratory of the Rockies, alongside Gulf Coast academic institutions and energy and chemical companies. Here are the key findings and takeaways from the workshop.

1. Supply Chain Resilience Requires Structured Industry–Lab Collaboration

Resilience—diversity of supply, operational flexibility, and rapid recovery—was a recurring theme. Recent disruptions exposed vulnerabilities in tightly interconnected energy and manufacturing systems.

National laboratories provide capabilities that complement Gulf Coast industrial scale, particularly at early and mid technology readiness levels (TRLs 1–7), before full commercial deployment. Examples include:

  • Advanced manufacturing and AI-enabled validation of critical components (Oak Ridge).
  • Materials scale-up and techno-economic modeling to move from lab discovery to industrial relevance (Argonne).
  • Pilot-scale testing for severe-service alloys, chemical conversion, and process innovation (NETL).
  • Integrated energy systems modeling to assess grid resilience and system disruptions (National Laboratory of the Rockies).

Recommendation: Organize targeted Gulf Coast industry missions to national laboratories focused on critical supply chains—power equipment, high-heat industrial processes, novel catalysts, refining, and grid infrastructure—to identify joint development opportunities and reduce time to commercialization.

2. Modeling, AI, and Open-Access Platforms Can Bridge the Technology Gap

A persistent barrier to innovation is the gap between scientific discovery, applied development, and commercial deployment. Universities often operate at TRLs 1–3, national labs at 1–7, and industry at 7–9. Bridging these silos requires shared modeling tools, high-performance computing, and structured feedback loops.

National labs maintain open-access platforms capable of:

  • Simulating grid expansion, investment, and dispatch decisions.
  • Modeling cradle-to-gate industrial material flows.
  • Optimizing complex energy and chemical systems.
  • De-risking carbon capture, critical mineral recovery, and advanced manufacturing integration.

Recommendation: HETI should convene structured training and feedback sessions on these public modeling platforms—ensuring Gulf Coast industry can apply, improve, and help guide further development of tools critical to regional competitiveness. Federal initiatives such as the Genesis Mission, focused on AI-accelerated scientific discovery, further expand opportunities for Gulf Coast participation.

3. Time to Commercialization Is the Ultimate Competitive Metric

The lithium-ion battery is a cautionary example: while pioneered in U.S. labs, large-scale manufacturing leadership shifted overseas. Without strategic intervention, U.S. firms are projected to capture less than 30% of domestic lithium battery cell value by 2030.

Successful DOE-backed consortium models show that mission-aligned, multi-partner collaboration reduces development timelines and strengthens domestic manufacturing know-how. However, public–private partnership mechanisms such as CRADAs and Strategic Partnership Projects can be time-intensive.

Recommendation: The Gulf Coast should actively engage DOE and national laboratories to streamline public–private partnership pathways, improve intellectual property clarity, and expand industry access to laboratory infrastructure.

The Path Forward: A Gulf Coast Consortium Model
The workshop’s central conclusion was clear: the Gulf Coast should formalize collaboration through a regional industry–academia–laboratory consortium.

Such a model could:

  • Co-locate national lab researchers within the region.
  • Share modeling data and analytical capabilities.
  • Establish open-access pilot facilities that complement lab infrastructure.
  • Harmonize IP frameworks to accelerate licensing and deployment.

With its dense industrial ecosystem, technical workforce, and decision-making concentration, the Gulf Coast is uniquely positioned to serve as a national demonstration hub for advanced energy and chemical manufacturing.

If industry, universities, and national laboratories align around a shared regional strategy, the Gulf Coast can:

  • Accelerate commercialization timelines.
  • Strengthen critical supply chains.
  • Unleash a world-class technical workforce.
  • Reinforce U.S. leadership in strategic energy and chemical sectors.

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This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. A full report on the key learnings and recommendations from the workshop can be found here: https://bit.ly/4uEDEqk.