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Newly named corporate energy, chemicals leader on navigating dynamic energy transition sector

Q&A

Teresa Thomas, newly named vice chair and national sector leader for energy and chemicals at Deloitte, shares her vision in an interview. Photo via LinkedIn

Deloitte is undergoing a leadership shift — and this evolution for the nearly 200-year-old company directly affects its Houston office and the energy transition line of business.

Earlier this month, Teresa Thomas was named vice chair and national sector leader for energy and chemicals at Deloitte. Based in Houston, she will also serve as an advisory partner and leader in Deloitte & Touche LLP's Risk & Financial Advisory energy and chemicals practice. She succeeds Amy Chronis, partner at Deloitte LLP, who will continue to serve within the energy and chemicals practice until her retirement in June 2024.

In an interview with EnergyCapital, Thomas shares a bit about what she plans on focusing as she takes on her new role.

EnergyCapital: As you transition into your new role, how would you describe your focus and priorities? 

Teresa Thomas: I am excited about what lies ahead for the energy and chemicals sector. The sector is moving into the new year with strong production and a focus on returning value and achieving efficiency. The sector is innovating with new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, including generative AI. that can capture value from data to transform and reinvent business processes and optimize the workforce.

The mission for my leadership role is to grow our practice by serving our clients with world-class solutions; venture into new innovative areas that exceed the changing needs in our sector; and attract, retain, and develop the best talent across Deloitte’s four businesses. I am bullish about the sector's role in leading on the forefront through the energy transition, pioneering innovative technologies and solutions that will help solve some of society’s most pressing issues, and contributing unique and differentiated ideas to help transform the energy and chemicals sector to meet global demands in a sustainable and profitable way.

EC: How is Deloitte navigating the trends and progression of the energy transition? What are clients’ expectations, and how does the company plan to stay a step ahead?  

TT: At Deloitte, we proactively navigate the dynamic landscape of the energy transition with a strategic, collaborative, and innovative edge. Our extensive global presence and diverse partnerships, spanning industries, regions, and academic institutions, keep us abreast of emerging trends, regulatory shifts, and technological advancements. Client expectations are evolving towards sustainable practices, and we respond by providing innovative solutions that align with their goals.

Our commitment to staying a step ahead involves continuous investment in talent development and innovative technologies. Central to our strategy is taking ownership of pivotal marketplace issues and adeptly guiding clients through the intricacies of their business challenges. Through harnessing our extensive expertise that cuts across our four business, we aim to create growth opportunities and offer innovative solutions.

EC: Energy companies have been known to more slowly adopt and adapt to new technologies. Is that changing?

TT: We believe the energy and chemicals industries is at the forefront of adopting cutting-edge technologies to bolster operational efficiency, increase productivity, reduce costs, and advance safety and sustainability measures. From bringing new materials to consumers, pioneering offshore operations, transforming shale resources into one of the most competitive resources, to developing new and sustainable molecules, the industry has highlighted its adaptability. The industry continues to be a leader of groundbreaking technologies including the development of biofuels, biomaterials, carbon capture, hydrogen production, and more.

Additionally, energy companies are increasingly leveraging digital technologies, including GenAI to enhance operational efficiency, optimize resource management, and drive innovation across various segments of the industry. From interpreting seismic data and predicting reservoir behavior, to employing carbon analytics and tracking GHG emissions, the industry is transforming its operations and contributing to a more sustainable and efficient energy landscape. While there is much more to be done, we remain confident that the energy industry will continue to help lead the way in innovation.

The oil and gas industry has been increasingly investing in clean energy over recent years, wherein the clean energy investments by the oil and gas industry as a share of their upstream capex quadrupled between 2020 and 2022. Yet, this clean energy investment remains less than 2 percent of the overall clean energy investments made in 2022.

After having outperformed the broader S&P 500 by over 45 percent since 2021, the oil and gas industry faces a threefold mandate:

  1. uphold financial stability,
  2. sustain high dividends, and
  3. augment investments in low-carbon ventures.

However, the central challenge lies in scaling the energy transition while maintaining profitability and shareholder value.

EC: The chemicals sector, in particular, seems ripe for disruption with new and developing alternative materials on the scene. What do you expect to see from this industry in 2024?

TT: There is a chemicals and material transition taking place as companies are pushed to develop more sustainable, lower-carbon materials. And given that 96 percent of all manufactured goods are touched by chemistry, this transition could also be transformational. Over the next year, we expect chemical companies to continue positioning themselves for this high-tech, low-carbon future in three notable ways.

  • First, we expect companies to increase automation and digitalization to improve productivity and accelerate innovation.
  • Second, we see companies continuing to invest in circular solutions, whether it's designing materials for a sustainable end-of-life or using renewable feedstocks.
  • Third, we expect some companies to lean into the new chemicals and materials needed to support the energy transition.

EC: As a Houstonian, what do you see the city’s role amidst the future of energy?

TT: Houston is a top global city, driving transformational change and a convener to an ecosystem of players that are leading the charge in the energy transition through biofuels, biomaterials, and advanced methods for carbon capture and hydrogen production.

Although not a native, I did find the energy and chemicals sector early in my career which brought me to this dynamic city. Houston’s advanced network of partners are working together toward creating innovative solutions that are accelerating the advancement of a lower carbon future.

———

This conversation has been edited for brevity and clarity.

Teresa Thomas was named vice chair and national sector leader for energy and chemicals at Deloitte. Photo via LinkedIn

Deloitte names new Houston-based leader of energy, chemicals practice

new hire

Deloitte announced a new local leader to oversee energy and chemicals nationally.

Teresa Thomas was named vice chair and national sector leader for energy and chemicals at Deloitte. Based in Houston, she will also serve as an advisory partner and leader in Deloitte & Touche LLP's Risk & Financial Advisory energy and chemicals practice.

She will lead the strategic direction of Deloitte's energy and chemicals practice and drive program growth in the sector. Thomas succeeds Amy Chronis, partner at Deloitte LLP, who will continue to serve within the energy and chemicals practice until her retirement in June 2024.

"I am fortunate to have worked in the energy and chemicals industry for most of my career, and I'm honored to continue working with companies that are playing a pivotal role in powering progress and purpose," Thomas says in a news release. "Our industry is at the epicenter of the energy transition that can fuel tremendous potential for society, and I'm excited to be leading during this important and transformational time."

Last year, Chronis announced her retirement from Deloitte, and the company named Melinda Yee as the incoming Houston managing partner at Deloitte, a role Chronis held in addition to the title of vice chair and US energy and chemicals leader. Chronis is slated to retire in June 2024, and Yee's new role became effective this month.

Thomas has served in a variety of leadership roles and has more than 20 years of experience in the energy industry. She is used to serving multiple large clients, and developing deep C-suite and board relationships, as well as advising on future success for the business, and the industry as a whole. She was named as one of Hart Energy's 25 most influential women in energy in 2023, and is the vice chair and board member of The Rose, which is a nonprofit women's breast health organization in Southeast Texas.

"Teresa has played an integral role as strategic advisor to many of our valued energy and chemicals clients as they navigate significant transition, and her leadership, enthusiasm and vision will help shape the future of our practice," Stanley Porter, vice chair at Deloitte and U.S. energy, resources and industrials leader, says in a news release. “I am confident that Teresa brings the right vision, experience and relationships to further lead and grow the energy and chemicals sector as it experiences critical transformation and convergence."

A Texas wind energy project goes online — and more energy transition news. Photo via Getty Images

ExxonMobil breaks ground, new Houston corporate leader, and more trending energy transition news

Editor's note: It's been a busy news week for energy transition in Houston, and some of this week's headlines resonated with EnergyCapital readers on social media and daily newsletter. Trending news included news of renewable energy projects, a new corporate appointment, and more.

Houston companies partner on sustainable plastics alternative

Lummus and Citroniq say their first plant, set for completion in 2027, will produce 400,000 metric tons of green polypropylene each year. Photo via lummustechnology.com

Two Houston companies, Lummus Technology and Citroniq Chemicals, have paired up to build North American plants that produce green polypropylene.

Polypropylene is a thermoplastic used to manufacture items such as plastic packaging, plastic parts, medical supplies, textiles, and fibers. Green polypropylene is made from biomass.

Lummus and Citroniq say their first plant, set for completion in 2027, will produce 400,000 metric tons of green polypropylene each year. The plant will be at an undisclosed location in the Midwest. Read more.

Prominent Houston energy business leader to retire, successor named

Amy Chronis is passing over the local leadership reins at Deloitte to Melinda Yee. Photos courtesy

Amy Chronis, a Houston business leader within the energy industry and beyond, is retiring next summer. Her replacement has been named.

Melinda Yee will be the incoming Houston managing partner at Deloitte, replacing Chronis who held the role along with the title vice chair and US energy and chemicals leader. Chronis will retire in June 2024, and Yee's new role is effective January 2.

“Melinda has been an active and valued member of Deloitte’s Houston leadership team. She brings an impressive depth of both industry and marketplace knowledge to her new role as managing partner,” Chronis says in a news release. “I am confident that she will be a great leader for our Houston professionals and in the local community.” Read more.

Central Texas wind energy facility goes online to power Target Corp.

This new Texas wind farm is now partly powering Target Corp. Photo via swiftcurrentenergy.com

A Texas wind energy project has officially delivered and is actively providing power to its customer, Target Corp.

Boston-based Swift Current Energy, which has an office in Houston, announced this week that its 197 MW Castle Gap Wind project is operational. It has the capacity to create enough pollution-free energy to power more than 50,000 homes annually.

"Castle Gap Wind is a momentous project for Swift Current Energy as we grow our projects under asset management and operations," Eric Lammers, CEO and co-founder of Swift Current Energy, says in a news release. "Castle Gap Wind is one of the earliest projects supported by the Inflation Reduction Act, and we are thankful for our partners at Target, Goldman Sachs, MUFG, CaixaBank and of course the entire Swift Current Energy team who helped make the Project possible." Read more.

ExxonMobil breaks ground on Texas carbon dioxide storage project

The rig stands 225 feet tall and extends 8,000 feet below the subsurface. Photo via exxonmobil.com

ExxonMobil announced this month that it has officially broken ground on a groundbreaking carbon dioxide storage site.

According to a release from the company, a new rig is currently being used to gather information about an underground site in Southeast Texas. The rig stands 225 feet tall, but more importantly extends 8,000 feet below the subsurface to investigate if the site is a safe place to store carbon underground.

“Everyone’s excited about this appraisal well because we’re literally breaking ground on a new chapter of our work to help reduce industrial emissions,” Joe Colletti, who oversees carbon capture and storage development along the Gulf Coast for Exxon, says in a statement. Read more.

New study from Houston research team looks at how the Earth cycles fossil carbon

A Rice University professor studied the Earth's carbon cycle in the Rio Madre de Dios to shed light on current climate conditions. Photo courtesy of Mark Torres/Rice University

Carbon cycles through Earth, its inhabitants, and its atmosphere on a regular basis, but not much research has been done on that process and qualifying it — until now.

In a recent study of a river system extending from the Peruvian Andes to the Amazon floodplains, Rice University’s Mark Torres and collaborators from five institutions proved that that high rates of carbon breakdown persist from mountaintop to floodplain.

“The purpose of this research was to quantify the rate at which Earth naturally releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and find out whether this process varies across different geographic locations,” Torres says. Read more.

Amy Chronis is passing over the local leadership reins at Deloitte to Melinda Yee. Photos courtesy

Prominent Houston energy business leader to retire, successor named

news to know

Amy Chronis, a Houston business leader within the energy industry and beyond, is retiring next summer. Her replacement has been named.

Melinda Yee will be the incoming Houston managing partner at Deloitte, replacing Chronis who held the role along with the title vice chair and US energy and chemicals leader. Chronis will retire in June 2024, and Yee's new role is effective January 2.

“Melinda has been an active and valued member of Deloitte’s Houston leadership team. She brings an impressive depth of both industry and marketplace knowledge to her new role as managing partner,” Chronis says in a news release. “I am confident that she will be a great leader for our Houston professionals and in the local community.”

Yee has worked at Deloitte for over 30 years and has served as both Deloitte’s central region risk and advisory leader as well as the Houston risk and advisory leader. She also held the title of energy and chemicals leader within Deloitte’s mergers, acquisitions, and restructuring services practice. She's worked on transactions across the energy value chain, as well as waste management, manufacturing, industrials, services, retail operations and investment management, per the release.

“I am honored to have been asked to serve as the managing partner for Deloitte’s Houston practice,” Yee says in the release. “I look forward to continuing the great work Deloitte has accomplished under Amy’s leadership, delivering results for our clients and making an impact in the Houston community.”

In addition to her role at Deloitte, she serves as a board member for Junior Achievement of Southeast Texas, a member of the Energy Transition Committee for the Greater Houston Partnership, and is Audit Committee chair, director and trustee at the University of Colorado Foundation.

While no Houston business was able to break into the top 100, four did make the cut for this prestigious list. Photo via Getty Images

Annual report ranks 2 Houston energy tech companies on list of fasting growing businesses

by the numbers

Four Houston businesses made the cut on Deloitte's recently unveiled list of the fastest-growing technology companies in North America — and two are energy tech companies.

For the 29th year, 2023 Technology Fast 500 ranked top tech, media, telecommunications, life sciences, and energy technology companies based on fiscal year revenue growth from 2019 to 2022. While no Houston business was able to break into the top 100, four did make the cut for this year's list.

“It is great to see Houston represented alongside established technology hubs on this year’s Fast 500 list,” Amy Chronis, vice chair, US Energy and Chemicals Leader and Houston managing partner at Deloitte, says in a statement. “Houston is planting seeds for future innovation, and the companies named to this year’s list confirm our city’s value proposition as an innovative community. We look forward to this growth continuing in the future and extend our congratulations to this year’s Houston winners.”

Houston's two energy representatives are NatGasHub.com, a pipeline data source, at No. 356 with 364 percent growth and P97 Networks, a fintech company for gas stations, at No. 506 with 225 percent growth.

The other two Houston businesses are digital media company Direct Digital Holdings at No. 108 with 1,325 percent growth and B2B software solutions business Liongard at No. 208 with 680 percent growth

Thirty Texas companies made the list of the 541 ranked, making it the fourth most concentrated hub on the list behind the Bay Area, Tri-State Area, and New England. The companies on the list reported a revenue growth ranging from 201 percent to 222,189 percent over the three-year time frame from 2019 to 2022. The average growth rate was 1,934 percent and a median growth rate of 497 percent.

“Each year, we look forward to reviewing the progress and innovations of our Technology Fast 500 winners," Paul Silverglate, vice chair, Deloitte LLP and U.S. technology sector leader, says in the release. "This year is especially celebratory as we expand the number of winners to better represent just how many companies are developing new ideas to progress our society and the world, especially during a slow economy. While software and services and life sciences continue to dominate the top 10, we are encouraged to see other categories making their mark."

Software dominated the industry breakdown with 57 percent of the companies working in that field. However, the top company for 2023 was Vir Biotechnology Inc., a life science company that developed a COVID-19 treatment. Vir was also the top company in 2022.

Last year, only one Houston company made the list. At No. 372 Onit reported a revenue increase of 369 percent. The company also made the 2021 list, along with Graylog and Enercross.

Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition. Photo via Getty Images

Houston can help unlock the key to a viable energy transition

guest column

The future of energy holds monumental and diverse expectations. Houston’s long history as the hub for oil and gas development – combined with its growing and important role in development of renewables, carbon capture, and other energy innovation – makes it a critical meeting point for discussions on strategy, investment, and stakeholder engagement in the energy transition.

In our research last fall, we detailed how the oil and gas industry was embracing capital discipline and prioritizing shareholder returns. The industry generated record cash flows and offered a combined dividend and share buyback yield of 8 percent in 2022—the highest among all industries. The industry’s commitment to maintaining capital discipline and investing in viable low-carbon projects has only strengthened in 2023.

In fact, according to our most recent research, the global upstream oil and gas industry is estimated to generate between $2.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion in free cash flow between 2023 and 2030. With capital availability not posing a significant constraint, boardrooms of oil and gas companies are engaged in discussions regarding capital allocation between hydrocarbons and low-carbon solutions, while striving to achieve desired rates of return and meet stakeholder expectations for dividend payouts.

What are the different expectations surrounding the energy transition that could potentially influence the capital allocation strategy or deployment of this free cash flow? Deloitte recently surveyed 150 industry executives and 75 institutional investors globally to find out how respondents expect capital to be deployed either back into the core business, back to shareholders, or into new low-carbon fuels and technologies.

Interestingly, while oil and gas investors and executives tend to agree on many issues, our research also indicated several key areas where expectations of the energy transition diverge.

Energy transition investment potential

Industry executives generally continue to apply discipline in evaluating bankable low-carbon projects, giving investors a chance to direct the dividends they receive into promising energy transition technology. However, sixty percent of executives we surveyed stated that they would invest in low-carbon projects only if the internal rate of return (IRR) from these projects exceeds 12 percent to 15 percent. These returns are a minimum for the industry to fund its base hydrocarbon capital expenditures and meet dividend commitments. For context, in 2022, the average IRR for most renewable power projects was less than 8 percent. Because overall, oil and gas companies are focused on returning value to shareholders, the comparatively lower IRR on some low-carbon projects can make the choice regarding these investments more difficult.

Changes in dividend payout contingent on minimum yield

Many oil and gas executives surveyed also placed higher priority on continuing to provide high dividend yield than some of the investors surveyed. Almost 50 percent of executives indicated that, in their view, dividend cuts could drive away investors. However, about 80 percent of the investors queried said they would likely continue to hold oil and gas stocks – even if companies slightly reduced dividends – to accelerate investments in lower-carbon technologies. However, three-fourths of investors said they required at least a 3 percent dividend yield.

The right technology

About 75 percent of low-carbon technology is still experimental or in early stages of development. Executives seem to remain focused on fuels and technologies — natural gas, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage — that are adjacent to their core businesses. Investors surveyed, on the other hand, tend to favor transformative technologies, such as battery storage and electric vehicles. About 43 percent of investors emphasized battery storage as a promising area.

Our research underscores the importance of immediate action to close the innovation gap. As the Energy Capital of the World, home to 4,700 energy-related organizations, Houston is positioned to lead the way. Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition.

———

Amy Chronis is vice chair of US Energy and Chemicals Leader and Houston managing partner at Deloitte LLP.

Kate Hardin is executive director at Deloitte Research Center for Energy and Industrials.
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4 Houston researchers awarded projects in DOE's Genesis Mission

federal funding

The U.S. Department of Energy has named the nearly 300 projects selected under the Trump Administration's Genesis Mission, which aims to address some of the largest science and technology challenges in the country. The group features four projects from Houston universities and companies.

The initiative aims to unite government, industry, academia and philanthropy to lead to breakthroughs in energy, scientific discovery and national security, according to a release.

The selected projects feature 87 led by DOE and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) National Laboratories, 168 led by universities, 19 led by companies and 4 led by nonprofit organizations—totalling 342 participating institutions.

“America has no shortage of bold ideas or talented scientists, and the response to the Genesis Mission proves that,” U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a news release. “The 278 projects selected today represent the very best of our nation’s scientific enterprise. The remarkable number of high-quality proposals we received demonstrates that America’s innovation pipeline is strong, and it points to even greater opportunities for future investment and continued expansion of the Genesis Mission portfolio.”

Twelve Texas-based projects were selected among the 278. The Houston projects and their researchers include:

Caroline Ajo-Franklin

Ajo-Franklin recieved a Phase I grant for her project "Predictive AI to Map Point Mutation Effects on Protein Function: Measurement and Biosynthesis of Isoprenoids." Ajo-Franklin is a professor of biosciences at Rice University, a CPRIT Scholar in Cancer Research and member of the Rice Synthetic Biology Institute. The project aims to accelerate the engineering of microbes that can produce isoprenoids, which are natural compounds that could replace petroleum-derived fuels, solvents and materials.

“This project creates a continuous feedback loop in which AI guides experiments and each experiment generates more detailed data to better hone the AI model,” Ajo-Franklin said in a news release. “In addition, it demonstrates the extraordinary star power Rice has recruited in protein engineering and synthetic biology.”

Anastasios Kyrillidis

Kyrillidis recived a Phase I grant for his project "Cracking the VQA Optimization Bottleneck: AI Methods for Quantum Chemistry and Materials." Kyrillidis is the Noah Harding Associate Professor of Computer Science at Rice and a member of the Ken Kennedy Institute. The project aims to develop AI tools to resolve bottlenecks in quantum computing for chemistry and materials research.

“Our goal is to replace fragile, hand-tuned optimization methods with intelligent systems that can learn from quantum computations while still operating within frameworks that provide strong mathematical guarantees,” Kyrillidis added in the release.

Myoungkyu Lee

Lee received a nearly $750,000 Phase I grant for his project "Physics-Informed AI Surrogates for Turbulent Forced Convection in Energy System." Lee is an assistant professor of mechanical aerospace engineering at the University of Houston. Lee will collaborate with researchers from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and University of Pennsylvania on the project and develop artificial intelligence to accelerate the design of materials for advanced nuclear fission and fusion reactors.

“The goal is to develop a tool that runs much faster than today’s most detailed simulations while keeping errors small,” Lee said in a news release. “If successful, the approach could support better heat-transfer predictions for molten-salt reactor design and provide a starting point for studying heat removal in fusion blankets. This is one contribution among many toward reliable, carbon-free energy.”

Amit Padhi

Padhi recieved a grant for his project "Probabilistic Inference of Subsurface Fracture Connectivity for Stimulation Control with Physics-Informed AI." Padhi is a scientific advisor for Halliburton.

The DOE first called for applications for the Genesis Mission in March. At the time, the DOE shared that it would grant approximately $293 million to the selected teams via Phase I awards, ranging from $500,000 to $750,000 for nine-month project periods, and Phase II awards, for $6 million to $15 million over a three-year project period.

Since then, however, the initiative has grown with 15 federal agencies now granting research awards and funding opportunities under the Genesis umbrella. The White House announced this week that it had secured more than $5 billion in federal commitments to expand the initiative.

SLB teams with Liberty Energy on modular power for AI data centers

ai alliance

Houston-headquartered SLB and Denver-based Liberty Energy Inc. announced a strategic agreement this month to support the rapid growth of new data center capacity.

Under the agreement, SLB will supply modular data center infrastructure and oversee large-scale execution, while Liberty will provide modular power generation systems and behind-the-meter power management technology for developers looking to add capacity. According to Reuters, the power will come from natural gas generation.

“The bottleneck in AI infrastructure is no longer just compute. It is the ability to deliver infrastructure and power on the timelines the market now demands,” Gavin Rennick, president of SLB’s New Energy and Industrial business, said in a news release. “By bringing together complementary infrastructure and power capabilities, we will help developers accelerate deployment of new data center capacity.”

The companies seek to specifically offer the modular technologies in areas without traditional grid connections or where grid capacity is limited.

They also aim to improve the "efficiency, flexibility and environmental performance of future data center energy systems," potentially through solutions like hybrid power systems and digital energy management, according to the news release.

Goldman Sachs estimates that U.S. data center capacity will more than double from 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 66 gigawatts in 2027. Other reports predict that Houston and Texas will be home to a significant portion of the data center boom, with capacity in the city and the state also expected to double in the next few years.

“The scale and complexity of AI energy infrastructure is fundamentally changing how power systems are built and deployed,” Ron Gusek, CEO of Liberty Energy, added in the release. “Liberty’s comprehensive power service platform is engineered to meet this transition, as customers increasingly prioritize tailored, integrated solutions. Building on our long-standing relationship with SLB, we are excited to bring power solutions that address immediate capacity constraints while supporting the next generation of energy systems.”

SLB sold its onshore hydraulic fracturing business in the United States and Canada to Liberty Energy in December 2020 in exchange for a 37 percent equity interest in the company.

New Rice study details how carbon capture could reduce AI data center emissions

by the numbers

A new study out of Rice University points to carbon capture and storage methods as pivotal solutions to addressing emissions from AI-driven data centers.

The study was authored by Hon Chung Lau, an adjunct professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice University and founder of Low Carbon Energies LLC, and Steve C. Tsai, an energy transition consultant at Low Carbon Energies LLC, and published in the journal Energy & Fuels.

According to the study, U.S. data center power capacity could more than quadruple in five years, growing from 40 gigawatts in 2025 to 169 gigawatts by 2030. Without proper regulation of emissions, the report estimates that carbon dioxide produced by fossil-fuel power plants supplying electricity to data centers could grow at the same scale, increasing from 90 million metric tons to more than 404 million metric tons over the same time period.

The researchers analyzed publicly available data on announced U.S. data centers, which included energy sources, locations, and projected power capacity before estimating data center-related carbon emissions based on each state’s electricity mix. From there, they examined whether those emissions could be captured and stored underground in saline aquifers.

The team estimates that 34 states have enough saline aquifer storage capacity to store more than 100 years of projected data center-related carbon dioxide emissions beyond 2030. Aquifers could store an estimated 59 million metric tons of data center-related carbon dioxide, or about 66 percent of the sector’s emissions in 2025. However, that calculation could grow to 299 million metric tons, or about 74 percent of projected data center-related emissions by 2030.

The researchers found that more than 90 percent of data center-related carbon dioxide emissions could potentially be mitigated through carbon capture and storage when out-of-state storage options are included, even though they note that carbon capture isn’t the only solution.

“It does show that the geology exists to make a meaningful impact, especially in states where data center growth is strongest,” Lau said in a news release.

Rapid growth in states including Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Utah and Illinois was considered in the study. According to the findings, Texas would need to add 25 gigawatts of power capacity by 2030 to meet projected data center demand, as data centers require reliable electricity 24/7.

“Data centers are becoming one of the defining energy challenges of the AI era,” Lau added in the news release. “The question is not only whether we can build enough computing infrastructure, but whether we can power it in a way that is reliable, affordable and compatible with decarbonization goals.”

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