Houston can help unlock the key to a viable energy transition

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Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition. Photo via Getty Images

The future of energy holds monumental and diverse expectations. Houston’s long history as the hub for oil and gas development – combined with its growing and important role in development of renewables, carbon capture, and other energy innovation – makes it a critical meeting point for discussions on strategy, investment, and stakeholder engagement in the energy transition.

In our research last fall, we detailed how the oil and gas industry was embracing capital discipline and prioritizing shareholder returns. The industry generated record cash flows and offered a combined dividend and share buyback yield of 8 percent in 2022—the highest among all industries. The industry’s commitment to maintaining capital discipline and investing in viable low-carbon projects has only strengthened in 2023.

In fact, according to our most recent research, the global upstream oil and gas industry is estimated to generate between $2.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion in free cash flow between 2023 and 2030. With capital availability not posing a significant constraint, boardrooms of oil and gas companies are engaged in discussions regarding capital allocation between hydrocarbons and low-carbon solutions, while striving to achieve desired rates of return and meet stakeholder expectations for dividend payouts.

What are the different expectations surrounding the energy transition that could potentially influence the capital allocation strategy or deployment of this free cash flow? Deloitte recently surveyed 150 industry executives and 75 institutional investors globally to find out how respondents expect capital to be deployed either back into the core business, back to shareholders, or into new low-carbon fuels and technologies.

Interestingly, while oil and gas investors and executives tend to agree on many issues, our research also indicated several key areas where expectations of the energy transition diverge.

Energy transition investment potential

Industry executives generally continue to apply discipline in evaluating bankable low-carbon projects, giving investors a chance to direct the dividends they receive into promising energy transition technology. However, sixty percent of executives we surveyed stated that they would invest in low-carbon projects only if the internal rate of return (IRR) from these projects exceeds 12 percent to 15 percent. These returns are a minimum for the industry to fund its base hydrocarbon capital expenditures and meet dividend commitments. For context, in 2022, the average IRR for most renewable power projects was less than 8 percent. Because overall, oil and gas companies are focused on returning value to shareholders, the comparatively lower IRR on some low-carbon projects can make the choice regarding these investments more difficult.

Changes in dividend payout contingent on minimum yield

Many oil and gas executives surveyed also placed higher priority on continuing to provide high dividend yield than some of the investors surveyed. Almost 50 percent of executives indicated that, in their view, dividend cuts could drive away investors. However, about 80 percent of the investors queried said they would likely continue to hold oil and gas stocks – even if companies slightly reduced dividends – to accelerate investments in lower-carbon technologies. However, three-fourths of investors said they required at least a 3 percent dividend yield.

The right technology

About 75 percent of low-carbon technology is still experimental or in early stages of development. Executives seem to remain focused on fuels and technologies — natural gas, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage — that are adjacent to their core businesses. Investors surveyed, on the other hand, tend to favor transformative technologies, such as battery storage and electric vehicles. About 43 percent of investors emphasized battery storage as a promising area.

Our research underscores the importance of immediate action to close the innovation gap. As the Energy Capital of the World, home to 4,700 energy-related organizations, Houston is positioned to lead the way. Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition.

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Amy Chronis is vice chair of US Energy and Chemicals Leader and Houston managing partner at Deloitte LLP.

Kate Hardin is executive director at Deloitte Research Center for Energy and Industrials.

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Panel: Houston's access to talent, strong network drives it as a city for scaling energy transition business

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Time is of the essence when it comes to scaling energy transition businesses in Houston — at least that's what a group of panelists agreed on at a recent event from the Greater Houston Partnership.

The GHP's Future of Global Energy event, which took place on October 9, featured a panel entitled, "Epicenter of Energy Innovation for Scale" and was moderated by Barbara Burger, former president of Chevron Technology Ventures and current startup adviser and mentor. Joining Burger was Kristina Lund, president of Pattern Energy; Brooke Vandygriff, COO of HIF Global: and Bud Vos, CEO of MetOx International. All three companies have and plan to continue scaling in Houston.

The conversation covered some of the unique achievements each of the panelists' companies have reached recently, including HIF Global's millions raised to create e-fuels, MetOx's $25 million series B extension, and Pattern Energy's Southern Spirit project scoring $360 million from the Department of Energy to connect Texas's ERCOT to other states.

After covering the momentum each company has right now, Burger asked each of the panelists why Houston makes sense as a place for scaling their energy transition business.

"The U.S. has a great regulatory environment, ERCOT specifically. Texas is in the business of permitting projects," Vandygriff says. "If you take the right steps, you can get your permits. They are very responsive to attracting and recruiting businesses here."

Also attractive is Houston's existing energy workforce. Even when it comes to technology roles, Houston delivers.

"There is great tech talent here," Vos says, pointing out that Bill Gates called Houston the "Silicon Valley of energy" when he was here for CERAWeek. "I think there's an element of that that's very true. There's a lot innovation, there's a lot of creative thinking, and being able to come out of these businesses with huge momentum then go into startups and innovate is a culture change that I think Houston is going through."

The panelists, most of whom are not Houston natives, agreed in a welcoming culture within the business sector.

"I really think that Houston offers great hospitality, and the energy networks here are so strong," Lund says. "You feel the energy of the city."

Dallas-area business to acquire Houston renewable energy co.

M&A moves

Houston-based developer of utility-scale renewable energy Proteus Power is being acquired by JBB Advanced Technologies for an undisclosed amount after founder, chairman, and CEO, John B. Billingsley signed a letter of intent to purchase.

"I know the potential of renewable energy, both for our country and for the small landowners and communities we work with," Billingsley says in a news release. "Proteus Power is just the type of company I have known and grown in the past, and we're perfectly positioned to make it a very profitable company for our investors. In the near term, this very substantial business will provide a multi-billion-dollar boost to the Texas economy, from Lubbock to Midland, across West Texas and down to the Gulf Coast."

Proteus Power currently incorporates a total of 15.5 gigawatts of utility-scale renewable energy projects, which include utility-scale solar and battery energy storage systems. Nearly 5 gigawatts of both utility-scale solar and battery energy storage should be developed at an estimated EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) cost of $3.38 billion over the next four years.

Proteus Power projects also include multiple independent system operators: ERCOT West, ERCOT Houston, ERCOT North, ERCOT South, Miso LA/MS, Miso Illinois, Miso Texas, and SPP South.

Billingsley, who launched one of the nation's largest renewable energy companies, Tri Global Energy, with the purchase of Proteus Power, continues JBB’s efforts for “clean, affordable solar energy systems to commercial concerns” according to the company.

Proteus Power headquarters in Houston will move to JBB Advanced Technologies' headquarters in Carrollton, Texas, with all current employees being retained, pending the final acquisition, which is expected in the fourth quarter of 2024.A branch office is also planned to be located in Lubbock, Texas.

"The Proteus Power development team is clearly among the best in the renewable industry today," Billingsley adds. "The company has thrived under the leadership of Chief Development Officer Dan Phillips, and we at JBBAT are fortunate to inherit such a strong team to work with us as we move forward to jump back in the energy transition."

ExxonMobil signs biggest offshore CCS lease in the U.S.

big deal

Spring-based ExxonMobil continues to ramp up its carbon capture and storage business with a new offshore lease and a new CCS customer.

On October 10, ExxonMobil announced it had signed the biggest offshore carbon dioxide storage lease in the U.S. ExxonMobil says the more than 271,000-acre site, being leased from the Texas General Land Office, complements the onshore CO2 storage portfolio that it’s assembling.

“This is yet another sign of our commitment to CCS and the strides we’ve been able to make,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The offshore site is adjacent to a CO2 pipeline network that ExxonMobil acquired in 2023 with its $4.9 billion purchase of Plano-based Denbury Resources.

Ammann told Forbes that when it comes to available acreage in the Gulf Coast, this site is “the largest and most attractive from a geological point of view.”

The initial customer for the newly purchased site will be Northbrook, Illinois-based CF Industries, Forbes reported.

This summer, ExxonMobil sealed a deal to remove up to 500,000 metric tons of CO2 each year from CF’s nitrogen plant in Yazoo City, Mississippi. CF has earmarked about $100 million to build a CO2 dehydration and compression unit at the plant.

A couple of days before the lease announcement, Ammann said in a LinkedIn post that ExxonMobil had agreed to transport and annually store up to 1.2 metric tons of CO2 from the $1.6 billion New Generation Gas Gathering (NG3) pipeline project in Louisiana. Houston-based Momentum Midstream is developing NG3, which will collect and treat natural gas produced in Texas and Louisiana and deliver it to Gulf Coast markets.

This is ExxonMobil’s first CCS deal with a natural gas processor and fifth CCS deal agreement overall. To date, ExxonMobil has contracts in place for storage of up to 6.7 metric tons of CO2 per year.

“I’m proud that even more industries are choosing our #CCS solutions to meet their emissions reduction goals,” Ammann wrote on LinkedIn.

ExxonMobil says it operates the largest CO2 pipeline network in the U.S.

“The most fundamental thing we’re focused on is making sure the CO2 is stored safely and securely,” Ammann told Forbes in addressing fears that captured CO2 could seep back into the atmosphere.

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