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Houston can help unlock the key to a viable energy transition

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Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition. Photo via Getty Images

The future of energy holds monumental and diverse expectations. Houston’s long history as the hub for oil and gas development – combined with its growing and important role in development of renewables, carbon capture, and other energy innovation – makes it a critical meeting point for discussions on strategy, investment, and stakeholder engagement in the energy transition.

In our research last fall, we detailed how the oil and gas industry was embracing capital discipline and prioritizing shareholder returns. The industry generated record cash flows and offered a combined dividend and share buyback yield of 8 percent in 2022—the highest among all industries. The industry’s commitment to maintaining capital discipline and investing in viable low-carbon projects has only strengthened in 2023.

In fact, according to our most recent research, the global upstream oil and gas industry is estimated to generate between $2.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion in free cash flow between 2023 and 2030. With capital availability not posing a significant constraint, boardrooms of oil and gas companies are engaged in discussions regarding capital allocation between hydrocarbons and low-carbon solutions, while striving to achieve desired rates of return and meet stakeholder expectations for dividend payouts.

What are the different expectations surrounding the energy transition that could potentially influence the capital allocation strategy or deployment of this free cash flow? Deloitte recently surveyed 150 industry executives and 75 institutional investors globally to find out how respondents expect capital to be deployed either back into the core business, back to shareholders, or into new low-carbon fuels and technologies.

Interestingly, while oil and gas investors and executives tend to agree on many issues, our research also indicated several key areas where expectations of the energy transition diverge.

Energy transition investment potential

Industry executives generally continue to apply discipline in evaluating bankable low-carbon projects, giving investors a chance to direct the dividends they receive into promising energy transition technology. However, sixty percent of executives we surveyed stated that they would invest in low-carbon projects only if the internal rate of return (IRR) from these projects exceeds 12 percent to 15 percent. These returns are a minimum for the industry to fund its base hydrocarbon capital expenditures and meet dividend commitments. For context, in 2022, the average IRR for most renewable power projects was less than 8 percent. Because overall, oil and gas companies are focused on returning value to shareholders, the comparatively lower IRR on some low-carbon projects can make the choice regarding these investments more difficult.

Changes in dividend payout contingent on minimum yield

Many oil and gas executives surveyed also placed higher priority on continuing to provide high dividend yield than some of the investors surveyed. Almost 50 percent of executives indicated that, in their view, dividend cuts could drive away investors. However, about 80 percent of the investors queried said they would likely continue to hold oil and gas stocks – even if companies slightly reduced dividends – to accelerate investments in lower-carbon technologies. However, three-fourths of investors said they required at least a 3 percent dividend yield.

The right technology

About 75 percent of low-carbon technology is still experimental or in early stages of development. Executives seem to remain focused on fuels and technologies — natural gas, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage — that are adjacent to their core businesses. Investors surveyed, on the other hand, tend to favor transformative technologies, such as battery storage and electric vehicles. About 43 percent of investors emphasized battery storage as a promising area.

Our research underscores the importance of immediate action to close the innovation gap. As the Energy Capital of the World, home to 4,700 energy-related organizations, Houston is positioned to lead the way. Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition.

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Amy Chronis is vice chair of US Energy and Chemicals Leader and Houston managing partner at Deloitte LLP.

Kate Hardin is executive director at Deloitte Research Center for Energy and Industrials.
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Houston energy tech company Molecule makes gas operations acquisition

software acquisition

Houston-based energy trading risk management (ETRM) software company Molecule has announced the acquisition of Dallas-based Trilogy Energy Solutions.

Molecule CEO Patrick Smith called the deal a "defining moment" for the company, as it allows Molecule's platform to expand to include physical gas operations.

“For years, this industry has drawn the ETRM box too small, creating inefficient silos by treating trading and physical operations as separate budgets and separate problems, when the real cost lives in the handoffs between them," Smith said in a news release. "Trilogy’s domain expertise in physical gas operations closes that gap. Together, we can give producers, midstream operators, and trading desks something the market has been asking for: a single, integrated view from wellhead to trading desk, without the manual reconciliation, spreadsheet workarounds, and legacy handoffs that slow the industry down.”

Trilogy, founded in 2014, is a provider of cloud-based software for the day-to-day logistics of physical natural gas operations. The platform allows users—including producers, marketers, midstream companies, pipeline operators and others—to manage activities such as pipeline nominations, gas gathering operations and more. Thus far, Molecule's platform has focused on energy trading and managing financial and commercial activities.

Through the acquisition, the combined company will now offer a full-stack enabled ETRM and energy operating system. Users of both platforms can expect continuity of service, according to the companies.

“Molecule has always been about meeting trading teams where they actually work, focused on being fast, accurate, and deeply integrated into their day-to-day workflow,” Sameer Soleja, founder and president of Molecule, added in the release. “Bringing Trilogy into the Molecule family extends that mission from the trading desk into the physical operations of the gas business. The two platforms complement each other exceedingly well, and the combined product will be able to offer all-in-one capabilities that lead the ETRM market, both in its tech-forward nature, and in its depth.”

Molecule expects the combined platform to help users reduce manual month-end close work, cut costs, and improve data accuracy and decision-making.

Trilogy's Chief Product Officer Jeremy Frye will join the Molecule team, along with others from Trilogy.

“Trilogy has spent decades building the trust of companies across the physical natural gas industry by delivering software that stands up to the demands of physical gas operations... It’s a rare combination that brings the best of both worlds, and I’m energized about what our teams will build together,” Frye added in the release.

California-based Sundance Growth, an existing investor in Molecule, supported the acquisition. The software growth equity firm raised a $125 million debut fund in 2025 and focuses on B2B SaaS companies.

Sundance led Molecule's Series B round, which closed last summer for an undisclosed amount. At the time, Soleja said the funding would allow Molecule to "double down on product innovation, grow our team, and reach even more markets."

Houston private equity firm's nuclear acquisition tops energy news to know

Trending Topics

Editor's note: The biggest energy transition headlines to close out July include a major acquisition and Department of Energy investments in Houston-led projects. Below are the five most-read stories published on EnergyCapitalHTX, July 15-31, 2026:

1. Houston PE firm makes latest nuclear industry acquisition

Houston-based private equity firm Pelican Energy Partners has acquired California-based Veridiam for an undisclosed amount in an effort to further increase the firm’s focus on the nuclear energy sector. Veridiam is a strategic manufacturer that specializes in the precision fabrication of components and assemblies made from exotic metals or advanced alloys for the nuclear, aerospace, defense, space and medical fields. Continue reading.

2. 4 Houston researchers awarded projects in DOE's Genesis Mission

The U.S. Department of Energy has named the nearly 300 projects selected under the Trump Administration's Genesis Mission, which aims to address some of the largest science and technology challenges in the country. The group features four projects from Houston universities and companies. The initiative aims to unite government, industry, academia and philanthropy to lead to breakthroughs in energy, scientific discovery and national security. Continue reading.

3. Shell strikes $1.8B deal to offload solar and wind assets in India

Reflecting its ongoing de-emphasis of renewable energy, oil and gas giant Shell has agreed to sell its solar and wind power business in India for $1.8 billion. Aditya Birla Renewables Ltd. (ABRen) is the pending buyer of Solenergi Power Private Ltd., including the Sprng Energy group of companies. Sprng Energy develops, owns and operates utility-scale solar and wind power facilities in India. Shell, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston, acquired Solenergi in 2022 for $1.55 billion. Continue reading.

4. Houston company lands first deal from new Blackstone energy transition fund

Asset manager Blackstone has agreed to buy Houston-based Dresser Utility Solutions from Connecticut private equity firm First Reserve for an undisclosed amount. First Reserve has a major presence in Houston. The deal represents the first investment from Blackstone Energy Transition Partners V. “Blackstone’s deep resources and experience in the utility sector make them an ideal partner as we continue to invest in innovation, expand our product portfolio, and deliver value for our customers,” Dresser CEO David Evans said. Continue reading.

5. KBR appoints C-suite duo to lead forthcoming spinoff

In advance of the spinoff of its Mission Technology Solutions unit, Houston-based KBR has made two C-suite hires for the new business. Michael LaRouche is coming aboard as president and CEO of the spinoff, currently called SpinCo, on Sept. 26. Nicholas Veasey joined as executive vice president and chief financial officer on July 1. Continue reading.

Houston geothermal startup adds former bp, Calpine execs to C-suite

new leaders

XGS Energy, a Houston-based developer of geothermal power systems, has added several energy industry veterans to its C-suite this summer.

The company named Al Vickers as its new chief operating officer earlier this month. Vickers will replace Ghazal Izadi in the role, as she moves into the chief growth officer position.

Vickers previously served as CEO of bp's U.S. Low Carbon Energy business and most recently was COO of Houston-based Grid United, which develops next-generation transmission infrastructure.

“I have spent my career developing, building, and operating large, complex energy infrastructure, and I am excited to work with XGS’s proven technology, which is ready to deliver clean, round-the-clock power at the scale the grid and customers need,” Vickers said in a news release. “XGS sits at the intersection of innovation, affordability, demand growth, responsible infrastructure development, and long-term energy resilience. I’m excited to roll up my sleeves and apply best practices from both oil and gas and infrastructure development to deliver gigawatt-scale geothermal projects.”

Kurt Fricker, who most recently held leadership roles at Hess Corporation, was also announced as XGS's new chief procurement officer.

The hires come shortly after XGS announced Richard Chong as its new chief financial officer in May.

Chong joins XGS from Houston-based power producer Calpine, where he most recently was vice president of finance. His work there included leading $2.25 billion in financing for Geysers, the world’s largest geothermal power complex.

Chong says XGS’ proven technology and the rising demand for clean power will help the company execute on its multi-gigawatt pipeline.

“I look forward to applying the experience I’ve built over two decades in energy finance to help XGS deliver clean, reliable power to customers and unlock the massive development opportunity ahead for next-generation geothermal,” Chong said in the release.

XGS’ first project is a 150-megawatt geothermal facility in New Mexico. It will supply around-the-clock electricity to the grid operated by Public Service Co. of New Mexico in support of Meta data centers.

XGS recently tapped Houston-based energy technology company Baker Hughes to provide engineering services for the New Mexico project.

XGS’ geothermal system uses thermally conductive materials to deliver affordable energy anywhere hot rock exists — without the need for water resources or specific geological conditions. This results in lower-risk projects, more site options, easier permitting and faster deployment.

Since 2023, XGS has raised nearly $57 million in venture capital.

XGS launched in 2008 in Palo Alto, California, as Geothermic Solution. In conjunction with its Series A round in 2023, the company rebranded to its current name. The company recently moved its headquarters to Houston, according to the Houston Business Journal.

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