Houston can help unlock the key to a viable energy transition

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Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition. Photo via Getty Images

The future of energy holds monumental and diverse expectations. Houston’s long history as the hub for oil and gas development – combined with its growing and important role in development of renewables, carbon capture, and other energy innovation – makes it a critical meeting point for discussions on strategy, investment, and stakeholder engagement in the energy transition.

In our research last fall, we detailed how the oil and gas industry was embracing capital discipline and prioritizing shareholder returns. The industry generated record cash flows and offered a combined dividend and share buyback yield of 8 percent in 2022—the highest among all industries. The industry’s commitment to maintaining capital discipline and investing in viable low-carbon projects has only strengthened in 2023.

In fact, according to our most recent research, the global upstream oil and gas industry is estimated to generate between $2.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion in free cash flow between 2023 and 2030. With capital availability not posing a significant constraint, boardrooms of oil and gas companies are engaged in discussions regarding capital allocation between hydrocarbons and low-carbon solutions, while striving to achieve desired rates of return and meet stakeholder expectations for dividend payouts.

What are the different expectations surrounding the energy transition that could potentially influence the capital allocation strategy or deployment of this free cash flow? Deloitte recently surveyed 150 industry executives and 75 institutional investors globally to find out how respondents expect capital to be deployed either back into the core business, back to shareholders, or into new low-carbon fuels and technologies.

Interestingly, while oil and gas investors and executives tend to agree on many issues, our research also indicated several key areas where expectations of the energy transition diverge.

Energy transition investment potential

Industry executives generally continue to apply discipline in evaluating bankable low-carbon projects, giving investors a chance to direct the dividends they receive into promising energy transition technology. However, sixty percent of executives we surveyed stated that they would invest in low-carbon projects only if the internal rate of return (IRR) from these projects exceeds 12 percent to 15 percent. These returns are a minimum for the industry to fund its base hydrocarbon capital expenditures and meet dividend commitments. For context, in 2022, the average IRR for most renewable power projects was less than 8 percent. Because overall, oil and gas companies are focused on returning value to shareholders, the comparatively lower IRR on some low-carbon projects can make the choice regarding these investments more difficult.

Changes in dividend payout contingent on minimum yield

Many oil and gas executives surveyed also placed higher priority on continuing to provide high dividend yield than some of the investors surveyed. Almost 50 percent of executives indicated that, in their view, dividend cuts could drive away investors. However, about 80 percent of the investors queried said they would likely continue to hold oil and gas stocks – even if companies slightly reduced dividends – to accelerate investments in lower-carbon technologies. However, three-fourths of investors said they required at least a 3 percent dividend yield.

The right technology

About 75 percent of low-carbon technology is still experimental or in early stages of development. Executives seem to remain focused on fuels and technologies — natural gas, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage — that are adjacent to their core businesses. Investors surveyed, on the other hand, tend to favor transformative technologies, such as battery storage and electric vehicles. About 43 percent of investors emphasized battery storage as a promising area.

Our research underscores the importance of immediate action to close the innovation gap. As the Energy Capital of the World, home to 4,700 energy-related organizations, Houston is positioned to lead the way. Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition.

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Amy Chronis is vice chair of US Energy and Chemicals Leader and Houston managing partner at Deloitte LLP.

Kate Hardin is executive director at Deloitte Research Center for Energy and Industrials.

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ENGIE inks deal to supply wind energy for Oracle’s Texas operations

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Houston-based renewable energy company ENGIE North America has made a deal to supply up to 568 megawatts of renewable electricity for tech giant Oracle's projects in Texas.

The power will come from ENGIE’s wind resources serving the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. Oracle is developing data centers in Abilene and Shackelford, Texas, according to its website.

The Oracle deal is part of ENGIE’s efforts to bring substantial new electricity supply to the grid. In the past six years, ENGIE has developed 12 gigawatts of new renewable generation and battery storage capacity in North Americas, equaling $11 billion in capital, according to the company.

"Our customers are looking for reliable, scalable energy solutions that can support long-term growth," Anne-Laure Chassanite, interim CEO of ENGIE North America, said in a news release. "ENGIE has invested heavily in developing new generation resources across North America, and we're pleased to support Oracle as it continues to expand its operations in Texas. These agreements reflect the strength of our portfolio and our ability to deliver customized energy solutions that help customers meet their business objectives.”

Computer technology and cloud computing company Oracle is working towards its goal to match 100 percent of AI data center electricity use with carbon-free electricity by 2035.

"Oracle is taking a responsible approach to meeting the energy needs of our growing AI and cloud operations in Texas — investing in carbon-free electricity without shifting costs to consumers," Julia Robin, head of infrastructure planning and sourcing for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, added in the release. "Our agreements with ENGIE advance Oracle's goal to match 100 percent of our AI data center electricity use with carbon-free electricity by 2035, while supporting long-term economic growth with no cost impact to the state of Texas.”

ENGIE also recently won the 2026 Green Power Leadership Award in the Market Innovation category for its work advancing 24/7 renewable energy solutions. The awards honor individuals and companies advancing sustainability and renewables in the energy industry through innovation and leadership.

The company has inked major deals to supply renewable energy to other major companies like Meta, Daikin and others.

Houston energy and innovation leaders come together at Argonne National Laboratory

The view from heti

Nearly 20 companies from Houston, ranging from global multinationals to innovative startups, joined the team at Argonne National Laboratory in Lemont, Illinois, for a full day of meetings, discussions, and networking focused on advancing innovation, commercialization, and industry collaboration.

The fly-in organized by the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, provided a unique opportunity for companies to engage directly with Argonne researchers, technical experts, and leadership while gaining a deeper understanding of the laboratory’s world-class capabilities. Participants explored how national laboratories can help bridge the gap between breakthrough research and commercial deployment, particularly in areas critical to U.S. competitiveness and economic growth.

The significance of this engagement extends beyond a single visit. While the U.S. Department of Energy operates 17 national laboratories, none is located along the Gulf Coast, a region uniquely home to industry, infrastructure, and energy systems at commercial scale. HETI’s continued work with the national laboratories helps bridge that geographic and operational gap by connecting world-class scientific research with companies that understand how to scale and deploy technologies. The Argonne fly-in also created space to address practical barriers to collaboration, including complex agreements and lengthy contracting timelines, and to explore ways to establish partnership frameworks more efficiently.

Explore HETI’s key takeaways from the fly-in:

1. Scaling Technologies for Commercial Use

A central theme was the importance of scale-up infrastructure and the role Argonne plays in helping companies reduce technical and manufacturing risks. Participants learned how facilities such as the Materials Engineering Research Facility (MERF) support the transition from laboratory discoveries to pilot-scale production and ultimately commercial manufacturing. These capabilities are especially valuable for companies working to move promising technologies from concept to market.

The discussions also highlighted Argonne’s extensive work in critical materials, battery recycling, advanced manufacturing, and supply chain resilience. Attendees learned about initiatives including the ReCell Center, AI-enabled materials discovery, and advanced modeling tools that can help businesses understand supply chain vulnerabilities and evaluate mitigation strategies. These capabilities have applications across energy, chemicals, manufacturing, semiconductors, defense, and emerging technologies.

2. Creating Pathways for Collaboration

Another key takeaway was the importance of engaging early. Companies do not need to arrive with a fully developed project or solution. Argonne offers multiple pathways for collaboration, including sponsored research, user facility access, technology licensing, pilot-scale testing, and Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs). These partnerships help companies access specialized expertise, facilities, and analytical tools that can accelerate innovation and commercialization

3. Building Connections Across Industry and Research

The fly-in reinforced the value of relationship building. Bringing together nearly 20 organizations in one place created meaningful opportunities for collaboration, knowledge sharing, and identifying future projects.

The conversations throughout the day demonstrated a shared commitment to strengthening domestic innovation, developing resilient supply chains, and creating pathways to bring new technologies to market.

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This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. Learn more about HETI’s role in advancing solutions and building partnerships to leverage Houston’s industry leadership for an energy-abundant, low-carbon future.

Fervo produces first geothermal power at flagship Utah project

energy milestone

Fervo Energy’s flagship project in Utah just generated its first geothermal power.

The electricity is now flowing to the power grid from one of Cape Station’s three generation units, Houston-based Fervo said in a news release. This represents an early but important milestone for the project, as the unit isn’t scheduled to deliver contracted power until Oct. 1.

The achievement, coming four months after Fervo’s roughly $2.2 billion IPO, demonstrates the viability of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).

“This is a gamechanger for the geothermal industry. It establishes EGS as the defining new power generation technology of our time, and we believe it shows that the commercial and technical maturity of EGS is ready to meet the urgent need for reliable, clean power,” Tim Latimer, co-founder and CEO of Fervo, said in the release.

The plant’s two other units are scheduled to launch commercial operations on Jan. 1.

The three units make up the project’s 99-megawatt first phase. The next phase, which will add 400 megawatts of capacity, is under construction. The second phase is set to go online in 2028.

Altogether, Cape Station will provide more than 4 gigawatts of capacity, with 900 megawatts already spoken for. The 900 megawatts of contracted electricity would be enough to power nearly 1 million U.S. homes per year.

“Cape Station works because we treated the subsurface like an engineering challenge,” Jack Norbeck, co-founder and chief technology officer of Fervo, added in the release. “Years of drilling, completion design, subsurface modeling, and flow testing led to this moment, and this is the validation that matters most.”

Enhanced geothermal continuously draws on heat that’s deep underground, producing electricity around the clock regardless of weather or time of day. That makes it one of the only carbon-free resources capable of constant power delivery, which is critical for data centers and AI infrastructure.

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