Houston can help unlock the key to a viable energy transition

guest column

Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition. Photo via Getty Images

The future of energy holds monumental and diverse expectations. Houston’s long history as the hub for oil and gas development – combined with its growing and important role in development of renewables, carbon capture, and other energy innovation – makes it a critical meeting point for discussions on strategy, investment, and stakeholder engagement in the energy transition.

In our research last fall, we detailed how the oil and gas industry was embracing capital discipline and prioritizing shareholder returns. The industry generated record cash flows and offered a combined dividend and share buyback yield of 8 percent in 2022—the highest among all industries. The industry’s commitment to maintaining capital discipline and investing in viable low-carbon projects has only strengthened in 2023.

In fact, according to our most recent research, the global upstream oil and gas industry is estimated to generate between $2.5 trillion to $4.6 trillion in free cash flow between 2023 and 2030. With capital availability not posing a significant constraint, boardrooms of oil and gas companies are engaged in discussions regarding capital allocation between hydrocarbons and low-carbon solutions, while striving to achieve desired rates of return and meet stakeholder expectations for dividend payouts.

What are the different expectations surrounding the energy transition that could potentially influence the capital allocation strategy or deployment of this free cash flow? Deloitte recently surveyed 150 industry executives and 75 institutional investors globally to find out how respondents expect capital to be deployed either back into the core business, back to shareholders, or into new low-carbon fuels and technologies.

Interestingly, while oil and gas investors and executives tend to agree on many issues, our research also indicated several key areas where expectations of the energy transition diverge.

Energy transition investment potential

Industry executives generally continue to apply discipline in evaluating bankable low-carbon projects, giving investors a chance to direct the dividends they receive into promising energy transition technology. However, sixty percent of executives we surveyed stated that they would invest in low-carbon projects only if the internal rate of return (IRR) from these projects exceeds 12 percent to 15 percent. These returns are a minimum for the industry to fund its base hydrocarbon capital expenditures and meet dividend commitments. For context, in 2022, the average IRR for most renewable power projects was less than 8 percent. Because overall, oil and gas companies are focused on returning value to shareholders, the comparatively lower IRR on some low-carbon projects can make the choice regarding these investments more difficult.

Changes in dividend payout contingent on minimum yield

Many oil and gas executives surveyed also placed higher priority on continuing to provide high dividend yield than some of the investors surveyed. Almost 50 percent of executives indicated that, in their view, dividend cuts could drive away investors. However, about 80 percent of the investors queried said they would likely continue to hold oil and gas stocks – even if companies slightly reduced dividends – to accelerate investments in lower-carbon technologies. However, three-fourths of investors said they required at least a 3 percent dividend yield.

The right technology

About 75 percent of low-carbon technology is still experimental or in early stages of development. Executives seem to remain focused on fuels and technologies — natural gas, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage — that are adjacent to their core businesses. Investors surveyed, on the other hand, tend to favor transformative technologies, such as battery storage and electric vehicles. About 43 percent of investors emphasized battery storage as a promising area.

Our research underscores the importance of immediate action to close the innovation gap. As the Energy Capital of the World, home to 4,700 energy-related organizations, Houston is positioned to lead the way. Houston’s broad energy sector can attract engineering expertise and clean tech talent, serving as a locus for knowledge-sharing on the financial and operational challenges ahead in the energy transition.

———

Amy Chronis is vice chair of US Energy and Chemicals Leader and Houston managing partner at Deloitte LLP.

Kate Hardin is executive director at Deloitte Research Center for Energy and Industrials.

Ad Placement 300x100

Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

Houston researchers propose model to scale e-waste recycling

critical research

The “missing link” in critical minerals may have been in our junk drawers all along, according to new research from the University of Houston.

Jian Shi, an associate professor in the UH Cullen College of Engineering, and his team have unveiled a new supply chain model that aims to make e-waste economically viable and could help make large-scale recycling possible.

Shi, along with professor Kailai Wang and graduate researcher Chuyue Wang, published the work in a recent issue of Nature. Their study outlines how gold, lithium and cobalt from discarded electronics can be kept circulating in the U.S. through the process of “urban mining.” It was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) through the Vehicle Technologies Office.

The team’s research found that e-waste is the fastest-growing solid waste stream in the world. When waste from smartphones or tablets is left unmanaged, the devices can leak hazardous waste and pose significant fire risks due to aging batteries. Additionally, when they are shipped off to foreign landfills, the U.S. loses the potential to recycle or reuse the critical minerals left inside.

“A lot of people have iPads or old iPhones sitting in their drawers right now, and that’s a waste of a critical resource,” Shi said in a news release. “Urban mining allows us to extract the same high-value materials found in traditional mines without the environmental destruction. More importantly, it helps secure our domestic supply chain for the technologies of tomorrow.”

According to UH, recycling e-waste has not succeeded in the U.S. due to a fragmented recycling system, in which manufacturers, collectors and recyclers operate separately, driving up costs.

The UH team's research looks to change that.

In the study, the researchers modeled streamlined recycling efforts by mapping the interactions between manufacturers and independent recycling markets. Their dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) model identified how these players can transition from competitors to partners, which can distribute profits more equitably and make recycling efforts more financially attractive.

According to UH, the research has particular significance due to the growing demand for electronic vehicles and their batteries.

“We can improve the performance of the entire recycling ecosystem and make the profit distribution more balanced,” Wang said in the release. “This ensures that the materials we need for EVs and advanced electronics stay right here in the U.S.”

“By making recycling work at scale, we aren’t just cleaning up waste,” Shi added. “We’re building a foundation that benefits both our national security and our economy.”

1PointFive signs latest deal, shares update on $1.3B carbon removal project

DAC deal

Houston-based 1PointFive, a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum Corp., has secured another buyer of carbon dioxide removal credits for its $1.3 billion STRATOS project as it moves toward operation.

Bain & Company, a Boston-based consulting firm, has agreed to purchase 9,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credits from the direct air capture (DAC) facility over three years, according to a news release. DAC technology pulls CO2 from the air at any location, not just where carbon dioxide is emitted.

The deal is Bain's first purchase of DAC removal credits. The company has developed a program that helps clients purchase carbon credits from a range of carbon-removal technologies.

"We are proud to partner with 1PointFive and add them to our portfolio of engineered carbon removal technologies," Sam Israelit, Bain’s chief sustainability officer, said in the news release. "Their track record for developing DAC technology, coupled with their deep understanding of what it takes to deliver large-scale infrastructure projects, uniquely positions them to be a leader in this emerging segment.”

“We believe this agreement demonstrates continued momentum for the solution while supporting the development of vital domestic infrastructure,” Anthony Cottone, president and general manager of 1PointFive, added in the release.

Bain joins others like Microsoft, Amazon, AT&T, Airbus, the Houston Astros and the Houston Texans that have agreed to buy CDR credits from STRATOS.

The Texas-based STRATOS project is being developed through a joint venture with investment manager BlackRock and is designed to capture up to 500,000 metric tons of CO2 per year. The U.S Environmental Protection Agency approved Class VI permits for the project last year.

1PointFive says STRATOS is "progressing through start-up activities." The company shared in a LinkedIn post that Phase 1 of the project is expected to go online in Q2, with Phase 2 ramping up through the remainder of 2026.

Houston researcher develops efficient method to cool AI data centers

cool findings

A University of Houston professor has developed a new cooling method that can remove heat at least three times more effectively from AI data centers than current technologies.

Hadi Ghasemi, a distinguished professor of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering at UH, published his findings in two articles in the International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer. The findings solve a critical issue in the growing AI sector, according to UH.

High-powered AI data centers generate huge amounts of heat due to the GPU and operating systems they use with extreme power densities, which introduce complex thermal challenges. Traditionally, cooling methods, like microchannels, which use flow and spray cooling, have had limitations when exposed to extreme heat flux, according to UH.

Ghasemi’s research, however, found a more effective way to design thin-film evaporation structures to release heat from data centers and electronics at record performance.

Ghasem’s solution coupled topology optimization and AI modeling to determine the best shapes for thin film efficiency, ultimately landing on a branch-like structure—resembling a tree.

The model found that the “branches” needed to be about 50 percent solid and 50 percent empty space for optimum efficiency, and that they could sustain high heat fluxes with minimal thermal resistance.

“These structures could achieve high critical heat flux at much lower superheat compared to traditionally studied structures,” Ghasemi said in a news release. “The new structures can remove heat without having to get as hot as previous removal systems.

Ghasemi’s doctoral candidates, Amirmohammad Jahanbakhsh and Saber Badkoobeh Hezave, also worked on the project. The team believes their results show the impact of a physics-aware, AI design and can help ensure reliability, longevity and stability of AI data centers.

“Beyond achieving record performance, these new findings provide fundamental insight into the governing heat-transfer physics and establishes a rational pathway toward even higher thermal dissipation capacities,” Ghasemi added in the release

View All Listings

ENERGYCAPITALHTX EMAILS ARE AWESOME