EV surge could shutter 40 refineries by 2040, Wood Mackenzie report warns

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Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040. Photo via Unsplash

If worldwide EV adoption rises as expected, global oil demand could fall by five million barrels per day by 2040, accelerating the closure of about 40 oil refineries, says the report, published by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The firm’s North American hub is in Houston.

Those closures might spell trouble for refinery operators with a sizable Houston-area presence, including BP, ExxonMobil, Marathon, Saudi Aramco, and Valero. In 2025, the five companies collectively earned roughly $33 billion from downstream operations, including refineries. One caveat: Each company assigns a different definition to “downstream.”

Refineries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, including the U.S. but excluding Middle Eastern heavyweights, “are most at risk due to their high energy costs and carbon prices,” the Wood Mackenzie report says.

On the flip side, an abundant U.S. oil supply means American drivers have less of an incentive to switch from traditional cars to electric vehicles, despite stubbornly high fuel prices, according to the report.

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040, up from three percent in 2025. That compares with a global forecast of 25 percent in 2040, up from 4 percent last year.

Another U.S. roadblock to EV adoption cited in the report: the country’s relative lack of advanced battery manufacturing.

“Without advanced battery technologies, the U.S. auto sector is at risk of ceding its home market to non-Chinese EVs and falling behind competitors internationally,” the report says.

Furthermore, according to the report, Chinese investment in EV manufacturing in the U.S. probably will remain a no-go and tariffs on Chinese EV imports likely won’t be lifted, even if Democrats resurrected EV incentives following a White House win in 2028.

“Competition among EV manufacturers in international markets will only intensify,” the report notes. “Companies that can offer competitive products in high-growth markets will be best positioned for long-term success.”

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Texas and California represented 61 percent of the total installed capacity of utility-scale energy storage for solar and wind power in the final three months of last year. Photo via Getty Images

New report shows Texas led the nation in solar and wind storage in Q4 2024

texas on top

When it comes to the storage of solar and wind energy, Texas might be able to swipe the Sunshine State nickname from Florida.

The Lone Star State led all states in the fourth quarter of 2024 with the installation of 1.2 gigawatts’ worth of utility-scale energy storage for solar and wind power, according to the recently released U.S. Energy Storage Monitor. In second place was California, with 875 megawatts’ worth of utility-scale storage installed in the fourth quarter. Together, Texas and California represented 61 percent of the total installed capacity in the final three months of last year.

The American Clean Power Association and Wood Mackenzie, a provider of data and analytics for the energy sector, issued the report.

Utility-scale systems stash large amounts of electricity generated by solar and wind for future use, easing the strain on power grids during periods of peak usage and power outages.

“Energy storage is solidifying its place as a leading solution for strengthening American energy security and grid reliability in a time of historic rising demand for electricity,” Noah Roberts, vice president of energy storage at the clean power organization, said in a statement. “The energy storage industry has quickly scaled to meet the moment, and deliver reliability and cost savings for American communities, serving a critical role [in] firming and balancing low-cost renewables.”

According to a report, In the fourth quarter, Texas is expected to add about 3.7 gigawatts of solar capacity — more than the combined total for the previous three quarters. Photo via Getty Images

Report: Texas expected to shine as top state for solar installations in 2023

fourth quarter push

When all the numbers are tallied, 2023 should be a very sunny year for solar installations in Texas.

The Solar Energy Industries Association, SEIA, and energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie predict Texas will be the top state for solar installations in 2023. In the fourth quarter, Texas is expected to add about 3.7 gigawatts of solar capacity — more than the combined total for the previous three quarters.

In 2021, Texas added nearly 6.07 gigawatts of solar capacity, with that figure falling to more than 3.66 gigawatts in 2022. But for 2023, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie anticipate Texas having added almost 6.24 gigawatts of solar capacity for residential, business, and utility customers.

A report released last week by SEIA and Wood Mackenzie indicates that sales volume for solar installations has declined in Texas and some other states due in part to higher costs for financing solar equipment. Solar sales volume in Texas started dropping off in late 2022 and has continued to shrink, says the report.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts 13 percent growth for the U.S. residential solar market in 2023. The report predicts the U.S. will have added 33 gigawatts of residential solar capacity in 2023, up from a record-setting 6.5 gigawatts in 2022. The U.S. added 6.5 gigawatts of residential solar capacity in the third quarter of 2023 alone, says the report.

“Solar remains the fastest-growing energy source in the United States, and despite a difficult economic environment, this growth is expected to continue for years to come,” says Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of SEIA. “To maintain this forecasted growth, we must modernize regulations and reduce bureaucratic roadblocks to make it easier for clean energy companies to invest capital and create jobs.”

Solar accounted for nearly half (48 percent) of all new electric-generating capacity during the first three quarters of 2023, bringing total installed solar capacity in the U.S. to 161 gigawatts across 4.7 million installations. By 2028, U.S. solar capacity is expected to reach 377 gigawatts, enough to power more than 65 million homes.

“The U.S. solar industry is on a strong growth trajectory, with expectations of 55 percent growth this year and 10 percent growth in 2024,” says Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie.

“Growth is expected to be slower starting in 2026 as various challenges like interconnection constraints become more acute,” she adds. “It’s critical that the industry continue to innovate to maximize the value that solar brings to an increasingly complex grid. Interconnection reform, regulatory modernization, and increasing storage attachment rates will be key tools.”

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SLB to make $4B acquisition to expand data center cooling business

cool deal

Houston’s SLB has announced plans to acquire German thermal management and heat exchange technology organization Kelvion for approximately $4 billion.

SLB reports in a news release that the acquisition is expected to boost its Data Center Solutions business, as thermal management technologies are key to cooling artificial-intelligence-related infrastructure. Data centers continue to pose numerous challenges, but SLB believes thermal management technology can help ease energy burdens.

“Data centers are becoming more sophisticated and energy-intensive, and customers are increasingly looking for partners that can optimize how critical systems work together across the facility and help bring new capacity online faster,” Gavin Rennick, president of SLB’s New Energy and Industrial business, said in the release. “Thermal management is central to that challenge, and this acquisition allows us to address it directly by delivering more integrated cooling solutions, accelerating innovation, optimizing thermal efficiency, and more directly embedding thermal management into our modular infrastructure offering.”

SLB will acquire Kelvion from funds managed by New York-based financial services group Apollo Global Management Inc. for approximately $3.4 billion in cash and will assume about $700 million of debt, according to the release. The deal is expected to close in Q1 of 2027.

SLB says the acquisition will help it dramatically scale revenue generated by the data center sector.

“This transaction accelerates our ambition to become an industrial technology partner to the data center industry and help customers address the growing infrastructure complexity required to scale AI,” Olivier Le Peuch, CEO of SLB, added in a news release. “Kelvion advances our path toward more integrated data center infrastructure solutions, expands our addressable market — more than doubling our revenue opportunity per gigawatt of delivered capacity — and allows us to scale both our offerings and the global reach of the business.”

SLB reports that it expects its Data Center Solutions business revenues to grow by more than 90 percent annually between 2024 and 2026.

If the acquisition is approved, the combined company will target revenue of $4.5 billion to $5 billion for its data center solutions business in 2028, according to the release.

Kelvion has previously served customers in AI infrastructure, energy system transformation and energy/ industrial markets. Its past work focuses on heat pumps, renewables, carbon capture and processing solutions for thermal management. According to the news release, Kelvion's data center revenue is expected to reach about $1.2 billion in 2026, and the sector is considered the company’s "largest and fastest-growing end market.

Tesla files plans for Houston-area solar plant & more top energy news

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Editor's note: Houston energy news in August was fueled by Tesla solar plans, a massive deal for ERock, and Halliburton Labs' newest cohort. Below are the five most-read EnergyCapitalHTX stories published during the second half of the month.

Telsa eyes Houston area for $10 billion solar manufacturing plant

Electric vehicle and clean energy company Tesla is considering building a new $10.1 billion solar cell manufacturing facility in Fort Bend County, according to documents filed with the Texas Comptroller’s Office. If approved, the plant, called Project Sun City, would be located on a 3,050-acre site off FM 762 and FM 1994 in Richmond, Texas. Tesla aims to finish construction in 2028, with the plant being operational by early 2029. Continue reading.

Houston’s data center capacity set to grow 80%, report says

Houston stands to benefit from constraints dogging data center markets elsewhere in Texas, a new report indicates. This comes against the backdrop of Texas surpassing Virginia as the country’s top state for data centers — and amid deepening opposition to these facilities. The report, published by commercial real estate services provider JLL, foresees Houston continuing to gain traction in data center development as occupants seek “scalable alternatives” to Texas markets experiencing supply-and-demand imbalances. Continue reading.

EV surge could shutter 40 refineries by 2040, Wood Mackenzie report warns

The rise of electric vehicles could spell trouble for Houston’s oil and gas sector, a new report suggests. But the oil and gas industry stands to benefit from potential sluggishness in U.S. adoption of EVs. If worldwide EV adoption rises as expected, global oil demand could fall by five million barrels per day by 2040, accelerating the closure of about 40 oil refineries, says the report, published by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The firm’s North American hub is in Houston. Continue reading.

ERock scores Anthropic deal, sees order backlog soar to $1.7B

Two months after its $400 million IPO, Houston-based ERock (NYSE: EROC) has landed a power-generator deal with AI powerhouse Anthropic, owner of the Claude platform. In its Q2 earnings report, ERock says it will provide equipment to Anthropic with a 470-megawatt capacity. ERock specializes in utility-grade, onsite microgrid power systems for data centers and other customers. The company previously did business as Enchanted Rock. Continue reading.

Halliburton Labs adds 3 energy, materials startups to Houston incubator

Three new companies have joined Halliburton Labs, the incubator for early-stage energy and hardtech startups run by Houston energy giant Halliburton. Halliburton Labs provides the emerging companies with mentorship, industry connections, laboratory access and other resources as they work toward commercialization. The latest companies to join the incubator focus on battery materials, resource recovery and gas separation solutions to address some of the "key bottlenecks in the energy and industrial landscape." Continue reading.

Houston geothermal startup bumps Series B to $180M with Nabors investment

fresh funding

Houston-based geothermal startup Quaise Energy has closed its Series B fundraising round at $180 million after inking a significant investment from another local energy leader.

Quaise, which is developing a 50-megawatt superhot geothermal plant in Oregon, announced a "first close" of the round last month at $134 million, led by San Francisco-based investment firm Prelude Ventures. The $46 million bump has been fueled by a $35 million investment from Houston-based Nabors Industries.

The funding will go toward the continued development of the company's superhot geothermal plant, Project Obsidian, as well as the commercialization of Quaise's millimeter-wave drilling system, according to a news release.

“We are unlocking the most powerful clean energy source on Earth, and the Series B signals deep conviction across a wide range of investors,” Carlos Araque, Quaise CEO and president, said in the release. “Nabors is an invaluable partner as we move millimeter wave drilling to full commercial operations at Project Obsidian and beyond.”

Nabors, a repeat investor in Quaise, has also entered into a strategic framework agreement with Quaise. Under the agreement, Quaise will have access to a dedicated Nabors land rig and drilling platform. Nabors will also provide expertise in reservoir modeling, well design and drilling strategy.

Last year, Quaise drilled to a depth of about 330 feet using its millimeter-wave technology at its field site in Central Texas. Canary Media previously reported that Quaise plans to drill to nearly 3,300 feet later this year and to deploy its millimeter-wave technology at its power plant in 2027. The plant is expected to deliver power to the Pacific Northwest in 2030.

Quaise and Nabors say the partnership will improve drilling performance, reduce costs and accelerate project timelines.

“Superhot geothermal has the potential to make clean energy ubiquitous. That is why we are excited about our close relationship with Quaise,” Anthony Petrello, president and CEO of Nabors, added in the release. “Quaise’s millimeter wave technology changes the equation entirely by reaching superhot rock at temperatures and depths that are inaccessible with conventional drilling, transforming geothermal from a location-dependent resource into a global energy solution. Combined with Nabors’ drilling expertise and infrastructure, we see a path to gigawatt-scale geothermal power that no other company can offer today.”

Quaise reports that with the latest funding, it has now raised $280 million. It raised $21 million in a Series A1 financing round in 2024 and a $52 million Series A in 2022.

The company announced in March that it was aiming to raise $200 million for Project Obsidian through $100 million in Series B funding, plus an additional $100 million from grants, debt and project-level finance.

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