EV surge could shutter 40 refineries by 2040, Wood Mackenzie report warns

ev outlook

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040. Photo via Unsplash

The rise of electric vehicles could spell trouble for Houston’s oil and gas sector, a new report suggests. But the oil and gas industry stands to benefit from potential sluggishness in U.S. adoption of EVs.

If worldwide EV adoption rises as expected, global oil demand could fall by five million barrels per day by 2040, accelerating the closure of about 40 oil refineries, says the report, published by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The firm’s North American hub is in Houston.

Those closures might spell trouble for refinery operators with a sizable Houston-area presence, including BP, ExxonMobil, Marathon, Saudi Aramco, and Valero. In 2025, the five companies collectively earned roughly $33 billion from downstream operations, including refineries. One caveat: Each company assigns a different definition to “downstream.”

Refineries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, including the U.S. but excluding Middle Eastern heavyweights, “are most at risk due to their high energy costs and carbon prices,” the Wood Mackenzie report says.

On the flip side, an abundant U.S. oil supply means American drivers have less of an incentive to switch from traditional cars to electric vehicles, despite stubbornly high fuel prices, according to the report.

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040, up from three percent in 2025. That compares with a global forecast of 25 percent in 2040, up from 4 percent last year.

Another U.S. roadblock to EV adoption cited in the report: the country’s relative lack of advanced battery manufacturing.

“Without advanced battery technologies, the U.S. auto sector is at risk of ceding its home market to non-Chinese EVs and falling behind competitors internationally,” the report says.

Furthermore, according to the report, Chinese investment in EV manufacturing in the U.S. probably will remain a no-go and tariffs on Chinese EV imports likely won’t be lifted, even if Democrats resurrected EV incentives following a White House win in 2028.

“Competition among EV manufacturers in international markets will only intensify,” the report notes. “Companies that can offer competitive products in high-growth markets will be best positioned for long-term success.”

From Your Site Articles

Texas and California represented 61 percent of the total installed capacity of utility-scale energy storage for solar and wind power in the final three months of last year. Photo via Getty Images

New report shows Texas led the nation in solar and wind storage in Q4 2024

texas on top

When it comes to the storage of solar and wind energy, Texas might be able to swipe the Sunshine State nickname from Florida.

The Lone Star State led all states in the fourth quarter of 2024 with the installation of 1.2 gigawatts’ worth of utility-scale energy storage for solar and wind power, according to the recently released U.S. Energy Storage Monitor. In second place was California, with 875 megawatts’ worth of utility-scale storage installed in the fourth quarter. Together, Texas and California represented 61 percent of the total installed capacity in the final three months of last year.

The American Clean Power Association and Wood Mackenzie, a provider of data and analytics for the energy sector, issued the report.

Utility-scale systems stash large amounts of electricity generated by solar and wind for future use, easing the strain on power grids during periods of peak usage and power outages.

“Energy storage is solidifying its place as a leading solution for strengthening American energy security and grid reliability in a time of historic rising demand for electricity,” Noah Roberts, vice president of energy storage at the clean power organization, said in a statement. “The energy storage industry has quickly scaled to meet the moment, and deliver reliability and cost savings for American communities, serving a critical role [in] firming and balancing low-cost renewables.”

According to a report, In the fourth quarter, Texas is expected to add about 3.7 gigawatts of solar capacity — more than the combined total for the previous three quarters. Photo via Getty Images

Report: Texas expected to shine as top state for solar installations in 2023

fourth quarter push

When all the numbers are tallied, 2023 should be a very sunny year for solar installations in Texas.

The Solar Energy Industries Association, SEIA, and energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie predict Texas will be the top state for solar installations in 2023. In the fourth quarter, Texas is expected to add about 3.7 gigawatts of solar capacity — more than the combined total for the previous three quarters.

In 2021, Texas added nearly 6.07 gigawatts of solar capacity, with that figure falling to more than 3.66 gigawatts in 2022. But for 2023, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie anticipate Texas having added almost 6.24 gigawatts of solar capacity for residential, business, and utility customers.

A report released last week by SEIA and Wood Mackenzie indicates that sales volume for solar installations has declined in Texas and some other states due in part to higher costs for financing solar equipment. Solar sales volume in Texas started dropping off in late 2022 and has continued to shrink, says the report.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts 13 percent growth for the U.S. residential solar market in 2023. The report predicts the U.S. will have added 33 gigawatts of residential solar capacity in 2023, up from a record-setting 6.5 gigawatts in 2022. The U.S. added 6.5 gigawatts of residential solar capacity in the third quarter of 2023 alone, says the report.

“Solar remains the fastest-growing energy source in the United States, and despite a difficult economic environment, this growth is expected to continue for years to come,” says Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of SEIA. “To maintain this forecasted growth, we must modernize regulations and reduce bureaucratic roadblocks to make it easier for clean energy companies to invest capital and create jobs.”

Solar accounted for nearly half (48 percent) of all new electric-generating capacity during the first three quarters of 2023, bringing total installed solar capacity in the U.S. to 161 gigawatts across 4.7 million installations. By 2028, U.S. solar capacity is expected to reach 377 gigawatts, enough to power more than 65 million homes.

“The U.S. solar industry is on a strong growth trajectory, with expectations of 55 percent growth this year and 10 percent growth in 2024,” says Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie.

“Growth is expected to be slower starting in 2026 as various challenges like interconnection constraints become more acute,” she adds. “It’s critical that the industry continue to innovate to maximize the value that solar brings to an increasingly complex grid. Interconnection reform, regulatory modernization, and increasing storage attachment rates will be key tools.”

Ad Placement 300x100

Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

Solid-state generator company secures $9M in financing, names CTO

fresh financing

ATS Energy has secured a $9 million investment to help commercialize its solid-state generator technology, a representative from the company tells Energy Capital.

The Colorado-based company is a member of Houston's Greentown Labs climatech community and was named the second most-promising startup in the Innovations for Traditional Energy, Electricity, & the Grid track during CERA Week's Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition in March.

ATS's technology converts industrial waste heat into electricity via its proprietary thermoelectric cartridges, according to a news release. The cartridges convert the otherwise wasted thermal energy directly into usable electricity with no turbine, no moving parts and no emissions.

"We have spent years building a proven track record of breakthrough technology," Doug Hudson, CEO of ATS Energy, said in the release. "What has developed over the past year is that markets are moving toward ATS Energy, said in the release. We've moved well beyond early interest to commercial commitments, active proposals and a pipeline that continues to expand across multiple industrial sectors. That puts us in a tremendous position to meet the moment in delivering energy to industry. This investment responds to real commercial opportunity, and it positions ATS Energy to scale production, meet customer demand faster, and drive commercial deployments."

According to the release, ATS plans to complete and deploy its first commercial generator using the thermoelectric cartridges by mid-2027. The company shared that it plans to begin revenue-generating operations next year, as well.

ATS has also named Edward Ganja as its new CTO. Ganja previously served as a technology advisor for ATS and spent more than 30 years at Shell, most recently as vice president of catalyst and analytical technology in Houston, according to LinkedIn.

"Having worked closely with the team as a Technology Adviser, I am thrilled to step into the Chief Technology Officer role to lead our technology strategy and advanced materials scale-up," Ganja shared in a LinkedIn post. "ATS is tackling crucial energy challenges, and I look forward to working with our talented team, partners, and industry colleagues to accelerate our commercial development and technological footprint."

A representative from the company shares that ATS has three employees in Texas, including two in Houston. The company is targeting industrial facilities, including Gulf Coast refineries and petrochemical plants, for its production model, which will leverage established manufacturing capabilities to help quickly scale its commercial pipeline.

"We are scaling manufacturing with the discipline required for commercial-grade industrial deployment, moving beyond proof-of-concept to deliver mission-critical equipment," Terry Hill, COO of ATS, added in the release. "We've been building the supply chain, identifying the right manufacturing partners and putting the processes in place to move toward repeatable production. By leveraging contract manufacturing, we can focus our capital on the technology, the product and our customers rather than building factories. Just as importantly, we're working to reduce the time between installations so we can respond to the demand we're seeing in the market."

ATS won the prestigious Earthshot Prize in the Fix Our Climate category in 2024. The Earthshot Prize, founded by Prince William, awards £1 million to five energy startups each year over a decade.

Trump says he's ending restrictions on methane emissions from oil drilling

In the News

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that his administration is “terminating” a Biden-era rule that aimed to cut planet-warming emissions of methane from oil and gas drilling.

Trump said during a campaign rally in Texas that the change would save companies and consumers billions of dollars and unlock 210 million barrels of oil. That’s equivalent to about 10 days of U.S. petroleum consumption.

The move aims to encourage more domestic drilling as Trump faces criticism over high fuel prices amid the war in Iran.

Methane is responsible for about a third of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, scientists estimate.

Cuts in methane emissions have emerged in recent years as a global priority to slow the rate of climate change. Oil and gas operations are the largest industrial source of methane, which is the main component in natural gas and far more potent to the atmosphere than carbon dioxide in the short term.

The invisible gas leaks from equipment and is released into the atmosphere or burned off as a waste product by oil drillers.

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin previewed the changes last month, saying they would eliminate the agency’s “Super Emitter Program” that requires companies to investigate and repair major methane releases from oil and natural gas facilities. The agency would also set less restrictive standards for small oil and gas wells.

Trump said during Tuesday's rally in Lubbock for Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton that Biden's plan “crushed the small operators” with crippling regulations.

“I’m officially terminating Biden’s expensive and unnecessary methane regulations to save consumers and energy producers $45 billion in costs,” Trump said.

The loosening of the emissions rule comes as Trump and Republicans in Congress have been methodically dismantling climate policies enacted under former President Joe Biden. That's included the revocation of a scientific finding that was central to U.S. action on greenhouse gas emissions, lower fuel economy standards for vehicles and a move to repeal emission restrictions for coal and natural gas power plants.

Environmental groups said the latest rollback will let companies continue polluting the atmosphere with gas that could be captured and provide energy to millions of households.

Environmental Defense Fund President Fred Krupp said it gives a “free pass” to companies at the expense of American consumers.

“EPA should be fighting this waste, not making it easier,” he said.

Zeldin has said the methane rule would have cost $18 billion and was holding back the U.S. energy industry.

The Biden methane rule was announced by officials including former Vice President Kamala Harris during a 2023 U.N. climate conference in the United Arab Emirates.

Federal officials under Biden said it would prevent an estimated 58 million tons (52.6 million metric tonnes) of methane emissions by 2038 and reduce other pollutants that cause health problems.

By 2034, the rule was projected to yield $98 billion in benefits. That figure was derived by calculating the future “social costs” of greenhouse gas emissions on public health and the environment, an approach rejected by Trump's EPA.

While previous regulations focused only on new oil and gas wells in the U.S., the Biden rule regulated existing wells. Operators also would have needed to plug leaking methane from smaller wells that produce just 6% of the nation’s oil and gas while accounting for up to half of all methane emissions from oil and gas fields.

The final rule was published in 2024. The EPA last year imposed an 18-month delay to give companies time to meet new inspection requirements and other provisions.

The rule was crafted to be coordinated with a methane fee, approved in the 2022 climate law. The fee program would have levied a “waste emissions charge” of as much as $1,500 per metric ton of methane on energy producers that exceed a certain level of methane emissions.

The fee marked the first time the U.S. government directly imposed a fee, or tax, on greenhouse gas emissions. Congress repealed it weeks after Trump took office.

Officials also tried to rein in methane from oil and gas under former President Barack Obama, but that effort was scaled back during Trump's first term.

Houston energy company expands battery storage deal with Samsung

battery boost

Houston-based Alpha Omega Power, which develops, invests in and runs utility-scale battery energy storage systems, has signed a deal to add more storage capacity from a subsidiary of South Korean tech giant Samsung.

The latest deal adds 1 gigawatt-hour of storage capacity to Alpha Omega’s existing contract with Samsung SDI America, bringing total storage capacity to 1.5 gigawatts.

The Michigan-based Samsung subsidiary is manufacturing the systems’ cells and modules at a plant in Indiana, Alpha Omega said. Samsung SDI plans to deliver them by the end of this year.

“This second agreement strengthens our domestic supply chain supporting the next generation of energy infrastructure,” Paul Choi, CEO of Alpha Omega, said in a press release.

Houston-based Fengate Asset Management owns Alpha Omega. In 2023, they formed a partnership to build, acquire, and operate utility-scale battery energy storage projects in the U.S. Their 200-megawatt Vertus battery facility in Galveston County came online this month.

Alpha Omega plans to use the Samsung SDI systems to improve grid reliability and meet greater demand for power in markets served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the Salt Lake City-based Western Electricity Coordinating Council.

ERCOT covers 90 percent of power customers in Texas. The Western Interconnection grid covers all or part of 14 states, as well as parts of Canada and Mexico.

Samsung SDI is the only non-Chinese supplier of rigid-metal “prismatic” energy storage batteries in North America, according to Alpha Omega.

“With strong durability and fire safety compared with pouch-type batteries, its prismatic batteries have helped the company meet the stringent requirements of U.S. energy companies,” Alpha Omega said.

The Samsung Battery Box 1.7 equipment being purchased by Alpha Omega offers AI-powered algorithms and 25 years of continuous use, along with greater energy density than its predecessor. It also features the ability to directly inject fire-extinguishing agents on a module-by-module basis.

View All Listings

ENERGYCAPITALHTX EMAILS ARE AWESOME