ADVERTISEABOUT USSUBMIT A STORYSUBSCRIBETERMS OF USEPRIVACY POLICY
Visit our family of Brands

EV surge could shutter 40 refineries by 2040, Wood Mackenzie report warns

ev outlook

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040. Photo via Unsplash

The rise of electric vehicles could spell trouble for Houston’s oil and gas sector, a new report suggests. But the oil and gas industry stands to benefit from potential sluggishness in U.S. adoption of EVs.

If worldwide EV adoption rises as expected, global oil demand could fall by five million barrels per day by 2040, accelerating the closure of about 40 oil refineries, says the report, published by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The firm’s North American hub is in Houston.

Those closures might spell trouble for refinery operators with a sizable Houston-area presence, including BP, ExxonMobil, Marathon, Saudi Aramco, and Valero. In 2025, the five companies collectively earned roughly $33 billion from downstream operations, including refineries. One caveat: Each company assigns a different definition to “downstream.”

Refineries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, including the U.S. but excluding Middle Eastern heavyweights, “are most at risk due to their high energy costs and carbon prices,” the Wood Mackenzie report says.

On the flip side, an abundant U.S. oil supply means American drivers have less of an incentive to switch from traditional cars to electric vehicles, despite stubbornly high fuel prices, according to the report.

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040, up from three percent in 2025. That compares with a global forecast of 25 percent in 2040, up from 4 percent last year.

Another U.S. roadblock to EV adoption cited in the report: the country’s relative lack of advanced battery manufacturing.

“Without advanced battery technologies, the U.S. auto sector is at risk of ceding its home market to non-Chinese EVs and falling behind competitors internationally,” the report says.

Furthermore, according to the report, Chinese investment in EV manufacturing in the U.S. probably will remain a no-go and tariffs on Chinese EV imports likely won’t be lifted, even if Democrats resurrected EV incentives following a White House win in 2028.

“Competition among EV manufacturers in international markets will only intensify,” the report notes. “Companies that can offer competitive products in high-growth markets will be best positioned for long-term success.”

From Your Site Articles
Texas and California represented 61 percent of the total installed capacity of utility-scale energy storage for solar and wind power in the final three months of last year. Photo via Getty Images

New report shows Texas led the nation in solar and wind storage in Q4 2024

texas on top

When it comes to the storage of solar and wind energy, Texas might be able to swipe the Sunshine State nickname from Florida.

The Lone Star State led all states in the fourth quarter of 2024 with the installation of 1.2 gigawatts’ worth of utility-scale energy storage for solar and wind power, according to the recently released U.S. Energy Storage Monitor. In second place was California, with 875 megawatts’ worth of utility-scale storage installed in the fourth quarter. Together, Texas and California represented 61 percent of the total installed capacity in the final three months of last year.

The American Clean Power Association and Wood Mackenzie, a provider of data and analytics for the energy sector, issued the report.

Utility-scale systems stash large amounts of electricity generated by solar and wind for future use, easing the strain on power grids during periods of peak usage and power outages.

“Energy storage is solidifying its place as a leading solution for strengthening American energy security and grid reliability in a time of historic rising demand for electricity,” Noah Roberts, vice president of energy storage at the clean power organization, said in a statement. “The energy storage industry has quickly scaled to meet the moment, and deliver reliability and cost savings for American communities, serving a critical role [in] firming and balancing low-cost renewables.”

According to a report, In the fourth quarter, Texas is expected to add about 3.7 gigawatts of solar capacity — more than the combined total for the previous three quarters. Photo via Getty Images

Report: Texas expected to shine as top state for solar installations in 2023

fourth quarter push

When all the numbers are tallied, 2023 should be a very sunny year for solar installations in Texas.

The Solar Energy Industries Association, SEIA, and energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie predict Texas will be the top state for solar installations in 2023. In the fourth quarter, Texas is expected to add about 3.7 gigawatts of solar capacity — more than the combined total for the previous three quarters.

In 2021, Texas added nearly 6.07 gigawatts of solar capacity, with that figure falling to more than 3.66 gigawatts in 2022. But for 2023, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie anticipate Texas having added almost 6.24 gigawatts of solar capacity for residential, business, and utility customers.

A report released last week by SEIA and Wood Mackenzie indicates that sales volume for solar installations has declined in Texas and some other states due in part to higher costs for financing solar equipment. Solar sales volume in Texas started dropping off in late 2022 and has continued to shrink, says the report.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts 13 percent growth for the U.S. residential solar market in 2023. The report predicts the U.S. will have added 33 gigawatts of residential solar capacity in 2023, up from a record-setting 6.5 gigawatts in 2022. The U.S. added 6.5 gigawatts of residential solar capacity in the third quarter of 2023 alone, says the report.

“Solar remains the fastest-growing energy source in the United States, and despite a difficult economic environment, this growth is expected to continue for years to come,” says Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of SEIA. “To maintain this forecasted growth, we must modernize regulations and reduce bureaucratic roadblocks to make it easier for clean energy companies to invest capital and create jobs.”

Solar accounted for nearly half (48 percent) of all new electric-generating capacity during the first three quarters of 2023, bringing total installed solar capacity in the U.S. to 161 gigawatts across 4.7 million installations. By 2028, U.S. solar capacity is expected to reach 377 gigawatts, enough to power more than 65 million homes.

“The U.S. solar industry is on a strong growth trajectory, with expectations of 55 percent growth this year and 10 percent growth in 2024,” says Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie.

“Growth is expected to be slower starting in 2026 as various challenges like interconnection constraints become more acute,” she adds. “It’s critical that the industry continue to innovate to maximize the value that solar brings to an increasingly complex grid. Interconnection reform, regulatory modernization, and increasing storage attachment rates will be key tools.”

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

Meet the 80+ startups pitching at Houston Energy and Climate Week

Pitch Lineup

One of the highlights from Houston Energy and Climate Week is hearing directly from the up-and-coming founders working to reshape the energy landscape.

This year, dozens of startups from Brazil to Berkeley and from right here in the Bayou City will compete for cash prizes and bragging rights while showcasing their concepts at HECW pitch events. Here's who's pitching at some of the week's signature competitions. Check back after the week wraps to see who takes home the top prizes.

Cypher Pilotathon and Startup Showcase — Sept. 15 at POST Houston

At the Cypher Pilotathon, founders will give their best 7-minute pilot pitches to industry experts and a live audience, followed by Q&A. This year's event will center around the theme, "The NEW Energy Industrial Revolution." Here's who's pitching:

  • Houston-based Aeromine Technologies, a distributed wind turbine company
  • San Francisco-based Ammobia, which develops low-carbon, energy source-agnostic ammonia
  • Birmingham, Alabama-based Ashipa Electric, a renewable energy semiconductor and microgrid manufacturer
  • Houston-based BigMachine AI, an AI engineer for industrial projects
  • Houston-based Corrolytics, which has developed corrosion detection technology
  • São Paulo, Brazil-based GLR Tech, which has developed a compact, scalable, low-cost platform for industrial emissions control
  • Monreal-based Green Graphite Technologies, which produces battery-grade graphite in a cost-effective and sustainable manner
  • Boston-based KIRA, which converts industrial wastewater into ultrapure water and solids
  • Edinburgh-based Mocean Energy, which works to deliver renewable ocean energy to power offshore industry
  • Los Angeles-based Mote, which works to convert agricultural and forestry waste into clean energy
  • Berkeley-based Oleo, which is developing a biomanufacturing platform to transform biomass waste into carbon-negative, cost-competitive oil feedstocks for advanced fuels
  • Oslo, Norway-based OTee, an automation machinery manufacturer
  • Houston-based Resollant, which is working to produce battery-grade graphite and ultra-low-cost hydrogen
  • Tulsa-based RyuGen Energy Solutions Inc., which works to turn underused commercial power into distributed AI infrastructure
  • Berkeley-based Sunchem, which provides precision separation of critical metals from sources including e-waste, evaporator scrap, solar panels, and mining ores and concentrates

Twenty-two other startups will participate in the startup showcase. See the full list here.

Greentown Climatetech Summit — Sept. 16 at the Continental Club

Ten Greentown startups will compete for $25,000 in prizes at Greentown Climatetech Summit's signature pitch event. Judges include Dave Dreessen, of Chevron Technology Ventures’ Future Energy Fund, and Jon Greene, of New Climate Ventures. Here's who's pitching:

  • Houston-based AMPeers, which manufactures high-temperature superconducting wire for high-power electrification infrastructure
  • Detroit-based AmHyTech, which enables ambient-condition liquid ammonia handling for fertilizer and fuel applications
  • Houston- and Zurich-based Biosimo, which converts biomass-based ethanol into lower-carbon acetic acid and acetyls
  • Houston-based Capwell Services Inc., which captures methane from low-flow oil and gas vents and returns it to market
  • Cleveland- and Ghana-based Cocoa Potash, which extracts potassium carbonate and fertilizer from cocoa, coconut, and palm-nut waste
  • Houston-based Solidec, which electrolyzes air, water, and electricity into onsite hydrogen peroxide.
  • Houston-based Focis AI, which converts industrial laser scans into a queryable digital twin of refineries and plants
  • Calgary-based Kanin Energy, which develops and finances waste heat to power projects for industrial clients
  • San Francisco-based FelixFusion, which models grid connection points so developers can validate interconnection in minutes
  • Houston-based Pike Robotics, which deploys its Wall-Eye robot to inspect hazardous tanks without taking assets offline

TEX-E Student Innovators will also pitch earlier in the day-long event, and an additional five Greentown startups will compete for $1,000 during the Lightning Pitch Competition. Find more information here.

Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum — Sept. 17 at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business

Houston-based companies Aquanta Vision, Capwell Services and Deep Anchor Solutions will be joined by startups from around the world to compete to be named one of the 10 Most Promising Companies at the 23rd Energy Tech Venture Forum. Additional companies will participate in office hours.

See the full list of nearly 50 companies pitching here.

Halliburton Labs Pitch Day — Sept. 18 at the Ion

Halliburton Labs Pitch Day brings together a curated group of early‑stage energy technology investors and 16 participating companies. The event is invitation‑only. Here's who's pitching:

  • Australia-based Aquafortus, which has developed a non-thermal liquid to liquid desalination technology for resource recovery from wastewater brine
  • Calgary-based Ayrton Energy, which has developed a proprietary technology that enables hydrogen to be stored within an organic liquid, which can be handled and transported like gasoline
  • Illinois-based Cache Energy, which is developing electrified heat and long-term energy storage
  • New York-based Cella, which is working to advance subsurface mineralization of CO2
  • Miami-based Chemergy, which has developed a patented process to convert wet organic and plastic wastes into green hydrogen
  • Tennessee-based Enexor BioEnergy, which is developing on-site waste-to-bioenergy conversion systems
  • Reno-based Espiku, which focuses on water and minerals recovery from industrially produced water
  • UK-based LiNa Energy, which is developing low-cost, solid-state sodium battery technology
  • Michigan-based Marel Power Solutions, which is developing advanced cooling technology to redefine power-stacks
  • California-based Mitico, which is developing technology to collect and purify carbon dioxide at the source, post-combustion, before it enters the atmosphere
  • Singapore-based Nandina REM, which turns end-of-life assets into new, reliable, high-performance carbon fiber materials for the aviation, aerospace and defense industries
  • California-based Noon Energy, which is developing a 100-plus-hour ultra-long-duration battery storage
  • Silicon Valley-based Proof Energy, which is commercializing next-generation metallic solid oxide fuel cell (M-SOFC) technology.
  • Berkeley-based Sunchem, which provides precision separation of critical metals from sources including e-waste, evaporator scrap, solar panels, and mining ores and concentrates
  • Singapore-based Sungreen, an advanced materials company pioneering nanotechnology-based coatings for high-efficiency, low-cost electrodes
  • Minneapolis-based Syncris, which is developing next-generation modular power systems designed for the most demanding environments
Read more about Houston Energy and Climate Week and its programming in Energy Capital's event preview.

KBR's Mission Technology Solutions spinoff awarded $1.1B NOAA contract

A Big Deal

Amid a major spinoff, Houston-based KBR's Mission Technology Solutions business has been awarded a five-year contract for up to $1.1 billion from NOAA’s National Weather Service to help predict and combat extreme weather conditions.

Under the follow-on Commercial Data Program National Mesonet Program (CDP NMP) contract, KBR will provide weather and observational data from commercial stations, university and research campuses, and other non-federal providers nationwide. The information collected will assist in predicting severe temperatures and high-impact weather conditions like extreme storms.

"This award underscores KBR's proven track record of delivering vital data that strengthens national forecasting capabilities," Todd May, KBR’s senior vice president of Mission Technology Solutions, said in a news release.

According to a separate release from NOAA, the contract expands upon KBR's existing relationship with the agency. KBR will work with about 70 private industry partners on services such as data recording, collection, aggregation and processing, and will lead the CDP NMP's "network of networks."

“NOAA gathers environmental information from a wide variety of sources, and a growing list of private industry partners have joined our agency to collect this vital data,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in the release. “This agreement streamlines the process that turns raw data into the gold-standard forecasts that Americans depend on.”

KBR will utilize its Speed to Mission ImpactSM technology for the project to supply data from across regions, measurement types, and system configurations. Both KBR and NOAA say the expanded data collection contract will help the agency create more accurate and timely forecasts, particularly for severe weather and extreme events, while also creating a path for new weather-observation technologies.

KBR has supported the CDP NMP for more than nine years. The program will be managed in Greenbelt, Maryland.

"We're driving expanded integration of commercial sensor and data sources into this platform and are honored to know our work helps forecasters give their communities earlier warnings and more time to prepare for dangerous weather,” May added in a release.

KBR’s Mission Technology Solutions business will be rebranded as Trinzic after its planned spin-off, the company announced last month. The spin-off is expected to close in January 2027.

Trinzic will work as an independent, publicly traded company focused on technology and engineering services for the space and national security sector. KBR will remain a separate publicly traded company that will focus on sustainable technology and services to support the energy transition.

---

This article originally appeared on InnovationMap.com.

Houston researchers map data center growth, trends in new interactive platform

data center development

Have you ever wondered why data centers are located where they are?

Energy experts at Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies (CES) have developed a tool to help answer that question.

Rice researchers at the CES, part of Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, have created an interactive map to track data center growth and energy infrastructure in the United States.

Kenneth B. Medlock III, Miaomiao Rimmer, Anmol Mital and Beck Edwards developed the tool, known as the U.S. Data Centers and Infrastructure map. It aims to provide a comprehensive view of the factors shaping where data centers are located, from power and water costs to infrastructure, public policy and local sentiment.

“The map lets you see why data centers are being built where they are by connecting the dots between infrastructure, power costs, water availability, public policy and public sentiment across different regions,” Medlock, senior director at CES, said in a news release. “You can zoom out and look at the whole U.S. to easily realize why data centers locations are being chosen—the price of power and water matters.”

The tool maps information on data center locations against other factors like energy, water, economics and politics. It also shows existing infrastructure in the area, including electric transmission lines, power plants, and fiber-optic networks, and provides information on water stress, electricity prices and natural gas prices.

According to Rice, the map will be updated in real time and currently includes information on existing data centers and proposed data centers.

Additionally, the map provides county-level analyses of news coverage and media to explore local attitudes towards the development of data centers in communities. Users can also explore political and demographic information.

According to the Pew Research Center, most data centers that are being built will appear in rural areas, with Virginia, Texas and Georgia leading the way in the number of planned facilities. Pew’s 2026 findings also noted that 38 percent of Americans live within 5 miles of at least one operational data center.

Meanwhile, Houston and Texas are poised for continued data center growth. Other reports predict that Houston’s data center capacity could more than double by 2028. Texas is home to an estimated 400-plus data centers, according to commercial real estate services provider CBRE.

View All Listings