EV surge could shutter 40 refineries by 2040, Wood Mackenzie report warns

ev outlook

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040. Photo via Unsplash

The rise of electric vehicles could spell trouble for Houston’s oil and gas sector, a new report suggests. But the oil and gas industry stands to benefit from potential sluggishness in U.S. adoption of EVs.

If worldwide EV adoption rises as expected, global oil demand could fall by five million barrels per day by 2040, accelerating the closure of about 40 oil refineries, says the report, published by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The firm’s North American hub is in Houston.

Those closures might spell trouble for refinery operators with a sizable Houston-area presence, including BP, ExxonMobil, Marathon, Saudi Aramco, and Valero. In 2025, the five companies collectively earned roughly $33 billion from downstream operations, including refineries. One caveat: Each company assigns a different definition to “downstream.”

Refineries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, including the U.S. but excluding Middle Eastern heavyweights, “are most at risk due to their high energy costs and carbon prices,” the Wood Mackenzie report says.

On the flip side, an abundant U.S. oil supply means American drivers have less of an incentive to switch from traditional cars to electric vehicles, despite stubbornly high fuel prices, according to the report.

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040, up from three percent in 2025. That compares with a global forecast of 25 percent in 2040, up from 4 percent last year.

Another U.S. roadblock to EV adoption cited in the report: the country’s relative lack of advanced battery manufacturing.

“Without advanced battery technologies, the U.S. auto sector is at risk of ceding its home market to non-Chinese EVs and falling behind competitors internationally,” the report says.

Furthermore, according to the report, Chinese investment in EV manufacturing in the U.S. probably will remain a no-go and tariffs on Chinese EV imports likely won’t be lifted, even if Democrats resurrected EV incentives following a White House win in 2028.

“Competition among EV manufacturers in international markets will only intensify,” the report notes. “Companies that can offer competitive products in high-growth markets will be best positioned for long-term success.”

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Texas and California represented 61 percent of the total installed capacity of utility-scale energy storage for solar and wind power in the final three months of last year. Photo via Getty Images

New report shows Texas led the nation in solar and wind storage in Q4 2024

texas on top

When it comes to the storage of solar and wind energy, Texas might be able to swipe the Sunshine State nickname from Florida.

The Lone Star State led all states in the fourth quarter of 2024 with the installation of 1.2 gigawatts’ worth of utility-scale energy storage for solar and wind power, according to the recently released U.S. Energy Storage Monitor. In second place was California, with 875 megawatts’ worth of utility-scale storage installed in the fourth quarter. Together, Texas and California represented 61 percent of the total installed capacity in the final three months of last year.

The American Clean Power Association and Wood Mackenzie, a provider of data and analytics for the energy sector, issued the report.

Utility-scale systems stash large amounts of electricity generated by solar and wind for future use, easing the strain on power grids during periods of peak usage and power outages.

“Energy storage is solidifying its place as a leading solution for strengthening American energy security and grid reliability in a time of historic rising demand for electricity,” Noah Roberts, vice president of energy storage at the clean power organization, said in a statement. “The energy storage industry has quickly scaled to meet the moment, and deliver reliability and cost savings for American communities, serving a critical role [in] firming and balancing low-cost renewables.”

According to a report, In the fourth quarter, Texas is expected to add about 3.7 gigawatts of solar capacity — more than the combined total for the previous three quarters. Photo via Getty Images

Report: Texas expected to shine as top state for solar installations in 2023

fourth quarter push

When all the numbers are tallied, 2023 should be a very sunny year for solar installations in Texas.

The Solar Energy Industries Association, SEIA, and energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie predict Texas will be the top state for solar installations in 2023. In the fourth quarter, Texas is expected to add about 3.7 gigawatts of solar capacity — more than the combined total for the previous three quarters.

In 2021, Texas added nearly 6.07 gigawatts of solar capacity, with that figure falling to more than 3.66 gigawatts in 2022. But for 2023, SEIA and Wood Mackenzie anticipate Texas having added almost 6.24 gigawatts of solar capacity for residential, business, and utility customers.

A report released last week by SEIA and Wood Mackenzie indicates that sales volume for solar installations has declined in Texas and some other states due in part to higher costs for financing solar equipment. Solar sales volume in Texas started dropping off in late 2022 and has continued to shrink, says the report.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts 13 percent growth for the U.S. residential solar market in 2023. The report predicts the U.S. will have added 33 gigawatts of residential solar capacity in 2023, up from a record-setting 6.5 gigawatts in 2022. The U.S. added 6.5 gigawatts of residential solar capacity in the third quarter of 2023 alone, says the report.

“Solar remains the fastest-growing energy source in the United States, and despite a difficult economic environment, this growth is expected to continue for years to come,” says Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of SEIA. “To maintain this forecasted growth, we must modernize regulations and reduce bureaucratic roadblocks to make it easier for clean energy companies to invest capital and create jobs.”

Solar accounted for nearly half (48 percent) of all new electric-generating capacity during the first three quarters of 2023, bringing total installed solar capacity in the U.S. to 161 gigawatts across 4.7 million installations. By 2028, U.S. solar capacity is expected to reach 377 gigawatts, enough to power more than 65 million homes.

“The U.S. solar industry is on a strong growth trajectory, with expectations of 55 percent growth this year and 10 percent growth in 2024,” says Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie.

“Growth is expected to be slower starting in 2026 as various challenges like interconnection constraints become more acute,” she adds. “It’s critical that the industry continue to innovate to maximize the value that solar brings to an increasingly complex grid. Interconnection reform, regulatory modernization, and increasing storage attachment rates will be key tools.”

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ENGIE inks deal to supply wind energy for Oracle’s Texas operations

wind deal

Houston-based renewable energy company ENGIE North America has made a deal to supply up to 568 megawatts of renewable electricity for tech giant Oracle's projects in Texas.

The power will come from ENGIE’s wind resources serving the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. Oracle is developing data centers in Abilene and Shackelford, Texas, according to its website.

The Oracle deal is part of ENGIE’s efforts to bring substantial new electricity supply to the grid. In the past six years, ENGIE has developed 12 gigawatts of new renewable generation and battery storage capacity in North Americas, equaling $11 billion in capital, according to the company.

"Our customers are looking for reliable, scalable energy solutions that can support long-term growth," Anne-Laure Chassanite, interim CEO of ENGIE North America, said in a news release. "ENGIE has invested heavily in developing new generation resources across North America, and we're pleased to support Oracle as it continues to expand its operations in Texas. These agreements reflect the strength of our portfolio and our ability to deliver customized energy solutions that help customers meet their business objectives.”

Computer technology and cloud computing company Oracle is working towards its goal to match 100 percent of AI data center electricity use with carbon-free electricity by 2035.

"Oracle is taking a responsible approach to meeting the energy needs of our growing AI and cloud operations in Texas — investing in carbon-free electricity without shifting costs to consumers," Julia Robin, head of infrastructure planning and sourcing for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, added in the release. "Our agreements with ENGIE advance Oracle's goal to match 100 percent of our AI data center electricity use with carbon-free electricity by 2035, while supporting long-term economic growth with no cost impact to the state of Texas.”

ENGIE also recently won the 2026 Green Power Leadership Award in the Market Innovation category for its work advancing 24/7 renewable energy solutions. The awards honor individuals and companies advancing sustainability and renewables in the energy industry through innovation and leadership.

The company has inked major deals to supply renewable energy to other major companies like Meta, Daikin and others.

Houston energy and innovation leaders come together at Argonne National Laboratory

The view from heti

Nearly 20 companies from Houston, ranging from global multinationals to innovative startups, joined the team at Argonne National Laboratory in Lemont, Illinois, for a full day of meetings, discussions, and networking focused on advancing innovation, commercialization, and industry collaboration.

The fly-in organized by the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, provided a unique opportunity for companies to engage directly with Argonne researchers, technical experts, and leadership while gaining a deeper understanding of the laboratory’s world-class capabilities. Participants explored how national laboratories can help bridge the gap between breakthrough research and commercial deployment, particularly in areas critical to U.S. competitiveness and economic growth.

The significance of this engagement extends beyond a single visit. While the U.S. Department of Energy operates 17 national laboratories, none is located along the Gulf Coast, a region uniquely home to industry, infrastructure, and energy systems at commercial scale. HETI’s continued work with the national laboratories helps bridge that geographic and operational gap by connecting world-class scientific research with companies that understand how to scale and deploy technologies. The Argonne fly-in also created space to address practical barriers to collaboration, including complex agreements and lengthy contracting timelines, and to explore ways to establish partnership frameworks more efficiently.

Explore HETI’s key takeaways from the fly-in:

1. Scaling Technologies for Commercial Use

A central theme was the importance of scale-up infrastructure and the role Argonne plays in helping companies reduce technical and manufacturing risks. Participants learned how facilities such as the Materials Engineering Research Facility (MERF) support the transition from laboratory discoveries to pilot-scale production and ultimately commercial manufacturing. These capabilities are especially valuable for companies working to move promising technologies from concept to market.

The discussions also highlighted Argonne’s extensive work in critical materials, battery recycling, advanced manufacturing, and supply chain resilience. Attendees learned about initiatives including the ReCell Center, AI-enabled materials discovery, and advanced modeling tools that can help businesses understand supply chain vulnerabilities and evaluate mitigation strategies. These capabilities have applications across energy, chemicals, manufacturing, semiconductors, defense, and emerging technologies.

2. Creating Pathways for Collaboration

Another key takeaway was the importance of engaging early. Companies do not need to arrive with a fully developed project or solution. Argonne offers multiple pathways for collaboration, including sponsored research, user facility access, technology licensing, pilot-scale testing, and Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs). These partnerships help companies access specialized expertise, facilities, and analytical tools that can accelerate innovation and commercialization

3. Building Connections Across Industry and Research

The fly-in reinforced the value of relationship building. Bringing together nearly 20 organizations in one place created meaningful opportunities for collaboration, knowledge sharing, and identifying future projects.

The conversations throughout the day demonstrated a shared commitment to strengthening domestic innovation, developing resilient supply chains, and creating pathways to bring new technologies to market.

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This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. Learn more about HETI’s role in advancing solutions and building partnerships to leverage Houston’s industry leadership for an energy-abundant, low-carbon future.

Fervo produces first geothermal power at flagship Utah project

energy milestone

Fervo Energy’s flagship project in Utah just generated its first geothermal power.

The electricity is now flowing to the power grid from one of Cape Station’s three generation units, Houston-based Fervo said in a news release. This represents an early but important milestone for the project, as the unit isn’t scheduled to deliver contracted power until Oct. 1.

The achievement, coming four months after Fervo’s roughly $2.2 billion IPO, demonstrates the viability of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).

“This is a gamechanger for the geothermal industry. It establishes EGS as the defining new power generation technology of our time, and we believe it shows that the commercial and technical maturity of EGS is ready to meet the urgent need for reliable, clean power,” Tim Latimer, co-founder and CEO of Fervo, said in the release.

The plant’s two other units are scheduled to launch commercial operations on Jan. 1.

The three units make up the project’s 99-megawatt first phase. The next phase, which will add 400 megawatts of capacity, is under construction. The second phase is set to go online in 2028.

Altogether, Cape Station will provide more than 4 gigawatts of capacity, with 900 megawatts already spoken for. The 900 megawatts of contracted electricity would be enough to power nearly 1 million U.S. homes per year.

“Cape Station works because we treated the subsurface like an engineering challenge,” Jack Norbeck, co-founder and chief technology officer of Fervo, added in the release. “Years of drilling, completion design, subsurface modeling, and flow testing led to this moment, and this is the validation that matters most.”

Enhanced geothermal continuously draws on heat that’s deep underground, producing electricity around the clock regardless of weather or time of day. That makes it one of the only carbon-free resources capable of constant power delivery, which is critical for data centers and AI infrastructure.

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