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Show me the money: Top Houston energy transition funding, investment news from 2024

year in review

Here were this year's most-read funding news stories on EnergyCapital. Photo via Getty Images

Editor's note: As the year comes to a close, EnergyCapital is looking back at the year's top stories in Houston energy transition. From firms with fresh funding to deploy to energy tech companies to startups raising venture capital investment, Houston has some wins to celebrate this year when you follow the money. Here were the top five most-read articles — according to EnergyCapital reporting — covering investment deals of 2024. Be sure to click through to read the full story.

Houston PE firm unveils oversubscribed $450M fund to advance nuclear power innovation

Pelican Energy Partners has raised more than it intended with its new nuclear-focused fund. Photo via Getty Images

Houston-based private equity firm Pelican Energy Partners has raised a $450 million fund to invest in nuclear energy services and equipment companies.

Pelican had aimed to raise $300 million for Pelican Energy Partners Base Zero LP and had imposed an initial “hard cap” of $400 million. Investors include endowments, foundations, family offices, and pension plans.

As of the fund’s closing date, the fund had wrapped up six investments, with several more deals expected to close by the end of this year. Continue reading.

Robotics co. with growing Houston presence closes series B

The advanced submersible robotics company will put the funds toward international expansion. Photo courtesy of Square Robot

Houston- and Boston-based Square Robot Inc. closed a series B round of funding last month.

The advanced submersible robotics company raised $13 million, according to Tracxn.com, and says it will put the funds toward international expansion.

"This Series B round, our largest to date, enables us to accelerate our growth plans and meet the surging global demand for our services,” David Lamont, CEO, said in a statement. Continue reading.

Houston industrial decarbonization-focused PE firm scores $725M to launch new business unit

HF Capital, the Knoxville, Tennessee-based investment arm of the Haslam family, made the multimillion-dollar commitment to set up Ara Energy Decarbonization. Photo via arapartners.com

Houston-based Ara Partners, a private equity firm that focuses on industrial decarbonization investments, is receiving up to $725 million from a Tennessee-based family office to launch an energy decarbonization unit.

HF Capital, the Knoxville, Tennessee-based investment arm of the Haslam family, made the multimillion-dollar commitment to set up Ara Energy Decarbonization. The new business will work toward reducing carbon emissions at ethanol plants, natural gas power plants, and other traditional energy assets.

The Haslam family founded Pilot Co., North America’s largest transportation fuel business and chain of travel centers. Shameek Konar, former CEO of Pilot, has been tapped to lead Ara Energy Decarbonization. Continue reading.

Houston-based clean energy site developer raises $300M to decarbonize big tech projects

As emerging technology continues to grow electricity load demand, Cloverleaf has identified an opportunity to develop large-scale digital infrastructure sites powered by low-carbon electricity. Photo via Getty Images

Houston energy executives have started a new company dedicated to developing clean-powered infrastructure for the large electric loads.

Cloverleaf Infrastructure, dually headquartered in Houston and Seattle, Washington, announced its launch and $300 million raised from NGP and Sandbrook Capital, two private equity firms. The company's management team also invested in the company.

As emerging technology continues to grow electricity load demand, Cloverleaf has identified an opportunity to develop large-scale digital infrastructure sites powered by low-carbon electricity.

"The rapid growth in demand for electricity to power cloud computing and artificial intelligence poses a major climate risk if fueled by high-emission fossil fuels," David Berry, Cloverleaf's CEO, says in a news release. "However, it's also a major opportunity to catalyze the modernization of the US grid and the transition to a smarter and more sustainable electricity system through a novel approach to development." Continue reading.

Investors from Houston and Boston fuel Greentown with $4M commitment

A mix of public and private investors have funded Greentown Labs. Photo via GreentownLabs.com

Greentown Labs, a climatetech incubator with locations in the Houston and Boston areas, has announced it has received funding from a mix of investors.

The $4 million in funding came from both of the Houston and Massachusetts locations. Houston investors included Bobby Tudor, CEO of Artemis Energy Partners and chairman of the Houston Energy Transition Initiative; David Baldwin, co-founder of OpenMinds and TEX-E and partner at SCF Partners; and Rice University. Other investors included MassDevelopment and the City of Somerville.

“The challenges of the energy transition are immense, and the role played by technology incubators like Greentown Labs is essential,” Tudor says in a news release. “We believe this role, which is a partnership between academia, industry, philanthropists, entrepreneurs, and governments, is the best way to get to effective, scalable solutions in a time frame that the urgency of the challenge requires. We need all hands on deck, and this partnership between Massachusetts and Texas can be a role model for others.” Continue reading.

With the deal, Midland, Texas-based Cottonmouth will make a $50 million equity investment into Houston-based Verde. Image via Shutterstock

Houston clean fuels co. secures $50M investment from Diamondback Energy subsidiary

money moves

Verde Clean Fuels announced the entry into a stock purchase agreement with Cottonmouth Ventures, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Diamondback Energy.

With the deal, Midland, Texas-based Cottonmouth will make a $50 million equity investment into Houston-based Verde.

The investment will consist of the purchase of 12.5 million shares of Verde’s Class A common stock at a purchase price of $4.00 per share. Closing of the investment is anticipated to occur during the first quarter of the new year, which will be subject to satisfaction of customary closing conditions. The investment would represent the second investment by Cottonmouth in Verde over the past two years, which would equal a total investment of $70 million. This would make Cottonmouth the second largest shareholder of Verde.

“We are pleased to further our relationship with Diamondback and continue advancing our plans to deploy our technology through the development of commercial production plants,” Ernest Miller, CEO of Verde, says in a news release. “Diamondback is a strategic industry partner at the forefront of bringing sustainable operational practices to the oilfield and supporting the overall transition to clean energy.”

Verde Clean Fuels key pioneering technology is its "syngas-to-gasoline plus" (STG+®), which turns diverse feedstocks like biomass, municipal solid waste (MSW), and natural gas – into gasoline or methanol. Verde is able to deploy facilities in areas with abundant and low-cost feedstock. The company has developed two different pathways to gasoline production with the goal of reducing carbon emissions.

Proceeds from the investment are expected to be used to further the development and construction of potential “natural gas-to-gasoline production plants in the Permian Basin and for other general corporate purposes,” according to Verde Clean Fuels. The proposed plants developed by the parties would produce fully-refined gasoline utilizing Verde’s patented STG+® process from associated natural gas feedstock supplied from Diamondback's operations in the Permian Basin. Verde will also expand its board of directors to eight members and appoint a new director to be designated by Cottonmouth. Cottonmouth will be entitled to appoint an observer to the company’s board.

“This investment is an expression of confidence in our technology, which we believe has the potential to alleviate economic and environmental concerns in the Permian Basin and other pipeline-constrained basins, where flaring and stranded natural gas represent a significant challenge,” Miller adds in the release.

U.S. Congressman Jake Ellzey made the announcement in Dallas last week. Photo courtesy of Google

Google to invest $1B in clean energy, data center tech in Texas

money moves

Google is making a big investment in Texas to the tune of $1 billion.

According to a news release from the company, the tech giant will spend more than $1 billion to support its cloud and data center infrastructure and expand its commitment to clean energy.

The $1 billion will be spent on data center campuses in Midlothian and Red Oak to help meet growing demand for Google Cloud, AI innovations, and other digital products and services such as Search, Maps, and Workspace.

In addition to its data center investment, Google has also forged long-term power purchase agreements with Houston-based Engie, as well as Madrid-based entities Elawan, Grupo Cobra, and X-ELIO for solar energy based in Texas. Together, these new agreements are expected to provide 375 MW of carbon-free energy capacity, which will help support Google’s operations in Texas.

These agreements were facilitated through LEAP (LevelTen Energy’s Accelerated Process), which was co-developed by Google and LevelTen Energy to make sourcing and executing clean energy PPAs more efficient, and contributes to the company’s ambitious 2030 goal to run on 24/7 carbon-free energy on every grid where it operates.

The company has contracted with energy partners to bring more than 2,800 megawatts (MW) of new wind and solar projects to the state. Google’s CFE percentage in the ERCOT grid region, which powers its Texas data centers, nearly doubled from 41 percent in 2022 to 79 percent in 2023.

The initiatives were announced at a conference in Midlothian on August 15, attended by business leaders and politicians including U.S. Congressman Jake Ellzey, Google Cloud VP Yolande Piazza, Ted Cruz, and Citi CIO Shadman Zafar.

The Dallas cloud region is part of Google Cloud's global network of 40 regions that delivers services to large enterprises, startups, and public sector organizations.

In a statement, Piazza said that "expanding our cloud and data center infrastructure in Midlothian and Red Oak reflects our confidence in the state's ability to lead in the digital economy."

Data centers are the engines behind the growing digital economy. Google has helped train more than 1 million residents in digital skills through partnerships with 590 local organizations, including public libraries, chambers of commerce, and community colleges.

In addition to its cloud region and Midlothian data center, Google has offices in Austin, Dallas, and Houston. The new Google’s total investment in Texas to more than $2.7 billion.

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This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Tyler Lancaster, a Chicago-based investor with Energize Capital, shares his investment thesis and why Houston-based Amperon caught his eye. Photo courtesy of Energize Capital

Investor on Texas as a climatetech hub, disruption opportunities with the grid, and more

Q&A

One of the biggest challenges to the energy transition is finding the funds to fuel it. Tyler Lancaster, partner at Energize Capital, is playing a role in that.

Energize Capital, based in Chicago, is focused on disruptive software technology key to decarbonization. One of the firm's portfolio companies is Amperon, which raised $20 million last fall.

In an interview with EnergyCapital, Lancaster shares what he's focused on and why Amperon caught Energize Capital's attention.

EnergyCapital: Energize Capital has been investing in climate tech for the better part of a decade now. What types of companies are you looking for and how are these companies’ technologies affecting the greater energy transition?

Tyler Lancaster: We partner with best-in-class innovators to accelerate the sustainability transition. This means identifying climate technology companies at various stages of maturity — from early commercialization to approaching the public markets — that we can help scale and realize their full potential. We invest in software-first climate technology businesses, with a focus on asset-light digital solutions that can help scale sustainable innovation and enable the new energy economy. Our portfolio currently drives software applications across renewable energy, industrial operations, electrification & mobility, infrastructure resilience, and decarbonization. We primarily focus on proven, commercially available and economically viable energy transition solutions (solar, wind, batteries, heat pumps, etc.). These solutions suffer from challenges related to efficient deployment or operations, where enabling digital platforms can play a key role in optimizing costs.

EC: Amperon is one of Energize Capital's portfolio companies. What made the company a great investment opportunity for Energize Capital?

TL: Accelerating the energy transition will require critical forecasting tools like what Amperon provides. This is underscored by the escalating impact of extreme weather events, increasing penetration of variable energy resources, like wind and solar, on the supply side, and surging demand growth driven by flexible loads and rapid electrification. We believe the need for Amperon’s platform will only continue to grow, and their increased raise from Series A to Series B showed they are scaling smartly. We’ve also known Sean Kelly, Abe Stanway, and the entire Amperon team for a long time, and building strong relationships with founders is how we like to do business. Amperon has built a blue-chip customer base in the energy sector in a very capital efficient manner, which is more important than ever for startups operating in the current equity market environment.

EC: One of the energy transition’s biggest problems is sourcing and storing reliable and affordable energy. What have you observed are the biggest problems with Texas’ electricity grid and what types of new tech can help improve these issues?

TL: Today’s electricity grid and the demands we’re putting on it look very different than they ever have. Major changes in climate and extreme weather show how perilous and unreliable the power grids in this country are, particularly in regions like Texas that don’t have the right infrastructure to shield grids from unusual temperatures — just look at the damage done by 2021’s historic Winter Storm Uri. And consumer demand for electricity is increasing as electrification accelerates globally. The makeup of the grid itself is shifting from centralized power plants to distributed clean energy assets like solar arrays and wind turbines, which brings issues of intermittent electricity production and no traditional way to forecast that.

Tech solutions like Amperon are the only way to navigate the nuances of the energy transition. With global net-zero goals and impending Scope II accounting, Amperon’s expertise in granular data management further enables companies to build accurate, dynamic forecasting models with smart meter data and get more visibility into anticipated market shifts so they can optimize their energy use — all of which helps to create a more resilient and reliable power grid.

EC: You are also on the board of the company, which recently announced a collaboration with Microsoft’s tech. What doors does this open for Amperon?

TL: Partnering with Microsoft and offering its energy demand forecasting solution on the Azure platform enables Amperon to better serve more companies that are navigating the energy transition and a rapidly evolving grid. Many power sector companies are also undergoing cloud migrations with Microsoft Azure having high market share. This partnership will specifically accelerate Amperon’s reach with utility customers, who typically have slower sales cycles but can greatly benefit from improved accuracy in energy demand forecasting and adoption of AI technologies.

EC: As a non-Texas investor, how do you see Houston and Texas-based companies’ investability? Has it changed over the years?

TL: While most tech startups are concentrated on the coasts and in Europe, we see Texas emerging as a hub for energy and climate focused startups due to its vicinity to energy giants, which represent potential customers. Texas leads the country in renewable energy production and sits at the forefront of the transition. Energy companies based in this region are relying on technology innovation and software tools to modernize operations and meet the evolving demands of their customers.

———

This conversation has been edited for brevity and clarity.

A Houston investor is looking to target high-potential hardtech startups within the energy transition with his new venture studio. Photo via Getty Images

Houston investor launches energy transition venture studio to help elevate early-stage hardtech startups

money moves

The way Doug Lee looks at it, there are two areas within the energy transition attracting capital. With his new venture studio, he hopes to target an often overlooked area that's critical for driving forward net-zero goals.

Lee describes investment activity taking place in the digital and software world — early stage technology that's looking to make the industry smarter. But, on the other end of the spectrum, investment activity can be found on massive infrastructure projects.

While both areas need funding, Lee has started his new venture studio, Flathead Forge, to target early-stage hardtech technologies.

“We are really getting at the early stage companies that are trying to develop technologies at the intersection of legacy industries that we believe can become more sustainable and the energy transition — where we are going. It’s not an ‘if’ or ‘or’ — we believe these things intersect,” he tells EnergyCapital.

Specifically, Lee's expertise is within the water and industrial gas space. For around 15 years, he's made investments in this area, which he describes as crucial to the energy transition.

“Almost every energy transition technology that you can point to has some critical dependency on water or gas,” he says. “We believe that if we don’t solve for those things, the other projects won’t survive.”

Lee, and his brother, Dave, are evolving their family office to adopt a venture studio model. They also sold off Azoto Energy, a Canadian oilfield nitrogen cryogenic services business, in December.

“We ourselves are going through a transition like our energy is going through a transition,” he says. “We are transitioning into a single family office into a venture studio. By doing so, we want to focus all of our access and resources into this focus.”

At this point, Flathead Forge has seven portfolio companies and around 15 corporations they are working with to identify their needs and potential opportunities. Lee says he's gearing up to secure a $100 million fund.

Flathead also has 40 advisers and mentors, which Lee calls sherpas — a nod to the Flathead Valley region in Montana, which inspired the firm's name.

“We’re going to help you carry up, we’re going to tie ourselves to the same rope as you, and if you fall off the mountain, we’re falling off with you,” Lee says of his hands-on approach, which he says sets Flathead apart from other studios.

Another thing that's differentiating Flathead Forge from its competition — it's dedication to giving back.

“We’ve set aside a quarter of our carried interest for scholarships and grants,” Lee says.

The funds will go to scholarships for future engineers interested in the energy transition, as well as grants for researchers studying high-potential technologies.

“We’re putting our own money where our mouth is,” Lee says of his thesis for Flathead Forge.

The undisclosed amount of funding will be used to continue Syzygy's work on it commercial-scale photoreactor. Photo via Syzygy

Houston cleantech co. secures investment from Mitsubishi

money moves

A Houston-based company that's created a photocatalytic reactor that uses light instead of heat to cleanly manufacture chemicals has announced its latest investor.

Syzygy Plasmonics announced a strategic investment agreement with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., executed through Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America Inc. The terms of the deal were not disclosed, but Syzygy reports that the funding will go toward commercialization and development of its products.

"MHIA has been making moves to establish themselves as one of the leaders in the energy transition," Syzygy CEO Trevor Best says in a news release. "Formalizing our relationship with them shows their commitment to helping scale cutting edge technology and opens up new avenues for Syzygy and MHIA to work together as we commercialize our industrial decarbonization platform."

Currently, Rigel, the commercial-scale photoreactor, is being tested in Syzygy's Pearland facility. Founded based off a breakthrough discovery out of Rice University from co-founders and professors Naomi Halas and Peter Nordlander, Syzygy closed a $76 million series C financing round last year, a $23 million series B round in 2021, and its $5.8 series A in 2019.

The funding will support advancement and commercialization of the technology and is a part of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group's commitment to decarbonization.

"By collaborating with and investing in partners with innovative technologies, MHI Group is working to build a hydrogen ecosystem and a CO2 ecosystem that can contribute to the realization of a decarbonized society," the company writes in a statement. "Through this investment, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will support Syzygy's efforts to develop innovative alternative technologies that will lead to the diversification of both ecosystems."

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Houston companies scoop up $31 million in funds from DOE, EPA methane emissions program

fresh funds

The U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced the selection of seven projects from Houston companies to receive funding through the Methane Emissions Reduction Program.

The projects are among 43 others nationwide, including 12 from Texas, that reduce, monitor, measure, and quantify methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. The DOE and EPA awarded $850 million in total through the program.

The Houston companies picked up $31.7 million in federal funding through the program in addition to more than $9.5 million in non-federal dollars.

“I’m excited about the opportunities these will create internally but even more so the creation of jobs and training opportunities for the communities in which we work,” Scott McCurdy, Encino Environmental Services CEO, said in a news release. His company received awards for two projects.

“These projects will allow us to further support and strengthen the U.S. Energy industry’s ability to deliver clean, reliable, and affordable energy globally,” he added.

The Houston-area awards included:

DaphneTech USA LLC

Total funding: $5.8 million (approximately $4.5 million in federal, $1.3 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Daphne and Williams Methane Slip Abatement Plasma-Catalyst Scale-Up project. Daphne will study how its SlipPure technology, a novel exhaust gas cleaning system that abates methane and exhaust gas pollution from natural gas-fueled engines, can be economically viable across multiple engine types and operating conditions.

Baker Hughes Energy Transition LLC 

Total funding: $7.47 million (approximately $6 million in federal, $1.5 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Advancing Low Cost CH4 Emissions Reduction from Flares through Large Scale Deployment of Retrofittable and Adaptive Technology project. The project aims to develop a scalable, integrated methane emissions reduction system for flares based on optical gas imaging and estimation algorithms.

Encino Environmental Services

Total funding: $15.17 million (approximately $11 million in federal, $4.17 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for two projects. The Advanced Methane Reduction System: Integrating Infrared and Visual Imaging to Assess Net Heating Value at the Combustion Zone and Determine Combustion Efficiency to Enhance Flaring Performance project aims to develop and deploy an advanced continuous emissions monitoring system. It’s Advancing Methane Emissions Reduction through Innovative Technology project will develop and deploy a technology using sensors and composite materials to address emissions originating in storage tanks.

Envana Software Solutions

Total funding: $5.26 million (approximately $4.2 million in federal, $1 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Leak Detection and Reduction Software to Identify Methane Emissions and Trigger Mitigation at Oil and Gas Production Facilities Based on SCADA Data project. It aims to improve its Recon software for monitoring methane emissions and develop partnerships with local universities and organizations.

Capwell Services Inc.

Total funding: $4.19 million (approximately $3.3 million in federal, $837,000 in non-federal)

The award was granted for its Methane Emissions Abatement Technology for Low-Flow and Intermittent Emission Sources project. It aims to to deploy and field-test a methane abatement unit and improve air quality and health outcomes for communities near production facilities and establish field technician internships for local residents.

Blue Sky Measurements 

Total funding: $3.41 million (approximately $2.7 million in federal, $683,000 in non-federal)

The award was granted for its Field Validation of Novel Fixed Position Optical Sensor for Fugitive Methane Emission Detection Quantification and Location with Real-Time Notification for Rapid Mitigation project. It aims to field test an optical sensing technology at six well sites in the Permian Basin.

Southern Methodist University, The University of Texas at Austin, Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station and Hyliion Inc. were other Texas-based organizations to earn awards. See the full list of projects here.

Texas university's 'WaterHub' will dramatically reduce water usage by 40%

Sustainable Move

A major advancement in sustainability is coming to one Texas university. A new UT WaterHub at the University of Texas at Austin will be the largest facility of its kind in the U.S. and will transform how the university manages its water resources.

It's designed to work with natural processes instead of against them for water savings of an estimated 40 percent. It's slated for completion in late 2027.

The university has had an active water recovery program since the 1980s. Still, water is becoming an increasing concern in Austin. According to Texas Living Waters, a coalition of conservation groups, Texas loses enough water annually to fill Lady Bird Lake roughly 89 times over.

As Austin continues to expand and face water shortages, the region's water supply faces increased pressure. The UT WaterHub plans to address this challenge by recycling water for campus energy operations, helping preserve water resources for both the university and local communities.

The 9,600-square-foot water treatment facility will use an innovative filtration approach. To reduce reliance on expensive machinery and chemicals, the system uses plants to naturally filter water and gravity to pull it in the direction it needs to go. Used water will be gathered from a new collection point near the Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium and transported to the WaterHub, located in the heart of the engineering district. The facility's design includes a greenhouse viewable to the public, serving as an interactive learning space.

Beyond water conservation, the facility is designed to protect the university against extreme weather events like winter storms. This new initiative will create a reliable backup water supply while decreasing university water usage, and will even reduce wastewater sent to the city by up to 70 percent.

H2O Innovation, UT’s collaborator in this project, specializes in water solutions, helping organizations manage their water efficiently.

"By combining cutting-edge technology with our innovative financing approach, we’re making it easier for organizations to adopt sustainable water practices that benefit both their bottom line and the environment, paving a step forward in water positivity,” said H2O Innovation president and CEO Frédéric Dugré in a press release.

The university expects significant cost savings with this project, since it won't have to spend as much on buying water from the city or paying fees to dispose of used water. Over the next several years, this could add up to millions of dollars.

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A version of this story originally appeared on our sister site, CultureMap Austin.

Report: Texas solar power, battery storage helped stabilize grid in summer 2024, but challenges remain

by the numbers

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that solar power and battery storage capacity helped stabilize Texas’ electric grid last summer.

Between June 1 and Aug. 31, solar power met nearly 25 percent of midday electricity demand within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid. Rising solar and battery output in ERCOT assisted Texans during a summer of triple-digit heat and record load demands, but the report fears that the state’s power load will be “pushed to its limits” soon.

The report examined how the grid performed during more demanding hours. At peak times, between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. in the summer of 2024, solar output averaged nearly 17,000 megawatts compared with 12,000 megawatts during those hours in the previous year. Between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m., discharge from battery facilities averaged 714 megawatts in 2024 after averaging 238 megawatts for those hours in 2023. Solar and battery output have continued to grow since then, according to the report.

“Batteries made a meaningful contribution to what those shoulder periods look like and how much scarcity we get into during these peak events,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said at a board of directors conference call.

Increases in capacity from solar and battery-storage power in 2024 also eclipsed those of 2023. In 2023 ECOT added 4,570 megawatts of solar, compared to adding nearly 9,700 megawatts in 2024. Growth in battery storage capacity also increased from about 1,500 megawatts added in 2023 to more than 4,000 megawatts added in 2024. Natural gas capacity also saw increases while wind capacity dropped by about 50 percent.

Texas’ installation of utility-scale solar surpassed California’s in the spring of last year, and jumped from 1,900 megawatts in 2019 to over 20,000 megawatts in 2024 with solar meeting about 50 percent of Texas' peak power demand during some days.

While the numbers are encouraging, the report states that there could be future challenges, as more generating capacity will be required due to data center construction and broader electrification trends. The development of generating more capacity will rely on multiple factors like price signals and market conditions that invite more baseload and dispatchable generating capacity, which includes longer-duration batteries, and investment in power purchase agreements and other power arrangements by large-scale consumers, according to the report.

Additionally, peak demand during winter freezes presents challenges not seen in the summer. For example, in colder months, peak electricity demand often occurs in the early morning before solar energy is available, and it predicts that current battery storage may be insufficient to meet the demand. The analysis indicated a 50% chance of rolling outages during a cold snap similar to December 2022 and an 80% chance if conditions mirror the February 2021 deep freeze at the grid’s current state.

The report also claimed that ERCOT’s energy-only market design and new incentive structures, such as the Texas Energy Fund, do not appear to be enough to meet the predicted future magnitude and speed of load growth.

Read the full report here.

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