Houston company to develop game-changing lithium-sulfur EV batteries for automaker

team work

Zeta Energy's batteries are targeted to power Stellantis electric vehicles by 2030. Image via Zeta Energy

Houston-based Zeta Energy Corp. has teamed up with an automaker to develop new battery technology.

Zeta Energy and Stellantis N.V. announced a joint development deal to advance battery cell technology for electric vehicle applications that will develop lithium-sulfur EV batteries with gravimetric energy density that can achieve a volumetric energy density comparable to today’s lithium-ion technology. The batteries are targeted to power Stellantis electric vehicles by 2030.

“The combination of Zeta Energy’s lithium-sulfur battery technology with Stellantis’ unrivaled expertise in innovation, global manufacturing and distribution can dramatically improve the performance and cost profile of electric vehicles while increasing the supply chain resiliency for batteries and EVs,” Tom Pilette, CEO of Zeta Energy, says in a news release.

The batteries will be produced using waste materials and methane that boasts lower CO2 emissions than any existing battery technology. Zeta Energy battery technology is intended to be manufacturable within existing gigafactory technology and would leverage an entire domestic supply chain in Europe or North America.

The technology can lead to a significantly lighter battery pack with the same usable energy as contemporary lithium-ion batteries. The companies believe this will enable greater range, improved handling and enhanced performance. The technology has the potential to improve fast-charging speed by up to 50 percent, which can make EV ownership easier.

Lithium-sulfur batteries are expected to cost less than half the price per kilowatt of current lithium-ion batteries according to a news release. Zeta has more than 60 patents on its proprietary lithium-sulfur anode and cathode technologies.

Lighter and more compact EV batteries have become an important design goal for vehicle designers and manufacturers. This objective is similar to what General Motors is doing with prismatic cell technology with LG Energy Solution.

“Our collaboration with Zeta Energy is another step in helping advance our electrification strategy as we work to deliver clean, safe and affordable vehicles,” Ned Curic, Stellantis chief engineering and technology officer, says in the release. “Groundbreaking battery technologies like lithium-sulfur can support Stellantis’ commitment to carbon neutrality by 2038 while ensuring our customers enjoy optimal range, performance and affordability.”

Last year, Zeta Energy announced that it was selected to receive $4 million in federal funding for the development of efficient electric vehicle batteries from the U.S. Department of Energy's ARPA-E Electric Vehicles for American Low-Carbon Living, or EVs4ALL, program.

The strong performance changed the trajectory of the year for the Austin, Texas-based company, which had seen sales and profits decline in the first two quarters. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla posts surprise $2.17B third-quarter profit, up from a year ago

by the numbers

Tesla’s third-quarter net income rose 17.3 percent compared with a year ago on stronger electric vehicle sales, and an optimistic CEO Elon Musk predicted 20 percent to 30 percent sales growth next year.

The strong performance changed the trajectory of the year for the Austin, Texas-based company, which had seen sales and profits decline in the first two quarters.

In its letter to investors, Tesla predicted slight growth in vehicle deliveries this year, better than the 1.8 million delivered worldwide in 2023.

Tesla said Wednesday that it made $2.17 billion from July through September, more than the $1.85 billion profit it posted in the same period of 2023.

The earnings came despite price cuts and low-interest financing that helped boost sales of the company’s aging vehicle lineup during the quarter. It was Tesla’s first year-over-year quarterly profit increase of 2024, a year plagued by falling sales and prices.

Revenue in the quarter rose 7.8 percent to $25.18 billion, falling short of Wall Street analysts who estimated it at $25.47 billion, according to FactSet. Tesla made an adjusted 72 cents per share, soundly beating analyst expectations of 59 cents.

Shares in Tesla Inc. soared nearly 12 percent in trading after Wednesday’s closing bell.

On a conference call with analysts, Musk said the profit increase came despite a challenging environment for auto sales with still-high loan interest rates. “I think if you look at EV companies worldwide, to the best of my knowledge, no EV company is even profitable,” he said.

Musk qualified his prediction that Tesla would post 2025 vehicle sales growth of 20 percent to 30 percent by saying it could be changed by “negative external events.”

Earlier this month Tesla said it sold 462,890 vehicles from July through September, up 6.4 percent from a year ago. The sales numbers were better than analysts had expected.

The letter said that Tesla is on track to start production of new vehicles, including more affordable models, in the first half of next year, something investors had been looking for. The new vehicles will use parts from its current models and will be made on the same assembly lines as Tesla’s current model lineup, the letter said.

The new vehicles were not identified and the price was nebulous. Musk has said in the past the company is working on a car that will cost about $25,000, but said Wednesday that a new affordable vehicle would cost under $30,000 including government tax incentives.

Earlier this month, the company showed off a purpose-built two-seat robotaxi called “Cybercab” at a glitzy event at a Hollywood movie studio. Musk said it would be in production before 2027 and cost around $25,000.

By using parts from existing models and the current manufacturing system, Tesla won’t reach cost reductions that it previously expected using a new manufacturing setup.

Tesla said it reduced the cost of goods per vehicle to its lowest level yet, about $35,100.

The company’s widely watched gross profit margin, the percentage of revenue it gets to keep after expenses, rose to 19.8 percent, the highest in a year, but still smaller than the peak of 29.1 percent in the first quarter of 2022.

During the quarter, Tesla’s revenue from regulatory credits purchased by other automakers who can’t meet government emissions targets hit $739 million, the second highest quarter in company history.

Musk said Tesla's “Full Self-Driving” system is improving and would drive more safely than humans in the second quarter of next year. Despite the name, Teslas using “Full Self-Driving” cannot drive themselves, and human drivers must be ready to intervene at all times.

The company, he said, is offering an autonomous ride-hailing service to employees in the San Francisco Bay Area, but it currently has human safety drivers. It expects to start a robotaxi service for the public in California and Texas next year, he said.

Musk also conceded that it may not be possible to reach autonomous driving safety levels with older editions of “Full Self-Driving” hardware. If it can't do that, Tesla will upgrade computers in the older cars for free, he said.

The self-driving claims come just five days after U.S. safety regulators opened an investigation into the system's cameras to see in low-visibility conditions such as sun glare, fog and airborne dust. The probe raised doubts about whether the system will be ready to drive on its own next year.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said in documents posted Friday that it opened the probe of 2.4 million Teslas after the company reported four crashes in low visibility conditions. In one, a woman who stopped to help after a crash on an Arizona freeway was struck and killed by a Tesla.

Investigators will look into the ability of “Full Self-Driving” to “detect and respond appropriately to reduced roadway visibility conditions."

Edward Jones analyst Jeff Windau said the earnings report and conference call showed that Tesla is making money on software, a business with high profit margins.

Still, he has a “hold” rating on the stock as the company moves toward robotics and autonomous vehicles. “They’ve got a lot of challenging goals out there,” he said.

Soon, the country will have IONNA's "Rechargery" locations thanks to the support of Texas-based Toyota and other automakers. Rendering courtesy of IONNA

Texas automaker invests in first-of-its-kind EV charging station initiative

plugging in

A charging network founded by eight of the world’s top automakers have announced that they have broken ground on their first electric vehicle charging station.

IONNA will work to transform a historic district gas station into a new "Rechargery" in North Carolina. The initiative is backed by Plano-based Toyota, along with BMW, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz, Kia, and Stellantis.

With plans to open locations across the country, the station will provide 10 covered parking bays and will be accessible to both CCS and NAC chargers. The charging ports will be capable of up to 400 kilowatts and 800+ Volts. The site will also include an indoor driver’s lounge, coffee service, food/beverage, restrooms, and WIFI.

“We are excited to announce our support of IONNA to deploy DC fast chargers throughout the U.S. and Canada,” Ted Ogawa, president and CEO of Toyota Motor North America, says in a news release. “We believe this will not only promote the adoption of BEVs and increase customer confidence in the technology, but it will provide our Toyota and Lexus customers with access to IONNA’s rapidly growing charging network in North America.”

IONNA will “enable urban and long-distance EV mobility for all with over 30,000 ultra-fast-and-reliable charging points by 2030” according to the company.

IONNA also announced Jackie Slope as the Chief Technology Officer. Slope previously worked with customer experiences at Crypto.com Arena and Madison Square Garden.

“Having spent my career raising the bar around the customer experience I am excited to find ways to innovate and elevate the charging experience by serving the customer above all else in this new and exciting industry,” Slope said in a news release.

While the North Carolina location is the first of its kind, IONNA plans to expand its Rechargery stations around North America soon.

In other EV news, Hyundai Motor and Kia launched a project on Sept. 25 to develop lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cathode material. Hyundai Steel and cathode material market leader EcoPro BM will aim to synthesize materials directly without creating a precursor for LFP battery cathode material production

Austin-based Tesla showed off “Cybercab” vehicle this week. Photo via tesla.com

Tesla unveils its robotaxi, plans to bring autonomous driving tech to other models in 2025

hop in

Texas-based Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, though fans of the electric vehicle maker will have to wait until at least 2026 before they are available.

CEO Elon Musk pulled up to a stage at the Warner Bros. studio lot in one of the company's “Cybercabs," telling the crowd that the sleek, AI-powered vehicles don't have steering wheels or pedals. He also expressed confidence in the progress the company has made on autonomous driving technology that makes it possible for vehicles to drive without human intervention.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

“We’ll move from supervised Full Self-Driving to unsupervised Full Self-Driving. where you can fall asleep and wake up at your destination,” he said. "It’s going to be a glorious future.”

Tesla expects the Cybercabs to cost under $30,000, Musk said. He estimated that the vehicles would become available in 2026, then added “before 2027.”

The company also expects to make the Full Self-Driving technology available on its popular Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in Texas and California next year.

“If they’re going to eventually get to robotaxis, they first need to have success with the unsupervised FSD at the current lineup,” said Seth Goldstein, equity strategist at Morningstar Research. “Tonight’s event showed that they're ready to take that step forward.”

When Tesla will actually take that step, however, has led to more than a little anxiety for investors who see other automakers deploying similar technology right now. Shares of Tesla Inc. tumbled 9% at the opening bell Friday.

Waymo, the autonomous vehicle unit of Alphabet Inc., is carrying passengers in vehicles without human safety drivers in Phoenix and other areas. General Motors’ Cruise self-driving unit had been running robotaxis in San Francisco until a crash last year involving one of its vehicles.

Also, Aurora Innovation said it will start hauling freight in fully autonomous semis on Texas freeways by year’s end. Another autonomous semi company, Gatik, plans to haul freight autonomously by the end of 2025.

“Tesla yet again claimed it is a year or two away from actual automated driving -- just as the company has been claiming for a decade. Indeed, Tesla’s whole event had a 2014 vibe, except that in 2014 there were no automated vehicles actually deployed on public roads,” Bryant Walker Smith, a University of South Carolina law professor who studies automated vehicles, told The Associated Press in an email. “Now there are real AVs carrying real people on real roads, but none of those vehicles are Teslas. Tonight did not change this reality; it only made the irony more glaring.”

Tesla had 20 or so Cybercabs on hand and offered event attendees the opportunity to take rides inside the movie studio lot — not on Los Angeles' roads.

At the presentation, which was dubbed “We, Robot” and was streamed live on Tesla’s website and X, Musk also revealed a sleek minibus-looking vehicle that, like the Cybercab, would be self-driving and can carry up to 20 passengers.

The company also trotted out several of its black and white Optimus humanoid robots, which walked a few feet from the attendees before showing off dance moves in a futuristic-looking gazebo.

Musk estimated that the robots would cost between $28,000-$30,000 and would be able to babysit, mow lawns, fetch groceries, among other tasks.

“Whatever you can think of, it will do,” he said.

The unveiling of the Cybercab comes as Musk tries to persuade investors that his company is more about artificial intelligence and robotics as it labors to sell its core products, an aging lineup of electric vehicles.

Tesla’s model lineup is struggling and isn’t likely to be refreshed until late next year at the earliest, TD Cowen analyst Jeff Osborne wrote in a research note last week.

Osborne also noted that, in TD Cowen’s view, the “politicization of Elon” is tarnishing the Tesla brand among Democrat buyers in the U.S.

Musk has endorsed Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and has pushed many conservative causes. Last weekend he joined Trump at a Pennsylvania rally.

Musk has been saying for more than five years that a fleet of robotaxis is near, allowing Tesla owners to make money by having their cars carry passengers while they’re not in use by the owners. Musk said that Tesla owners will be able to put their cars into service on a company robotaxi network.

But he has acknowledged that past predictions for the use of autonomous driving proved too optimistic. In 2019, he promised the fleet of autonomous vehicles by the end of 2020.

The announcement comes as U.S. safety regulators are investigating Full Self Driving and Autopilot based on evidence that it has a weak system for making sure human drivers pay attention.

In addition, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration forced Tesla to recall Full Self-Driving in February because it allowed speeding and violated other traffic laws, especially near intersections. Tesla was to fix the problems with an online software update.

Last April in Snohomish County, Washington, near Seattle, a Tesla using Full Self-Driving hit and killed a motorcyclist, authorities said. The Tesla driver told authorities that he was using the system while looking at his phone when the car rear-ended the motorcyclist. The motorcyclist was pronounced dead at the scene, authorities said.

NHTSA says it’s evaluating information on the fatal crash from Tesla and law enforcement officials.

The Justice Department also has sought information from Tesla about Full Self-Driving and Autopilot, as well as other items.

The Texas company said Tuesday that it made $1.48 billion from April through June, less than the $2.7 billion it made in the same period of 2023. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla reports falling profit, sales drop despite price cuts and low-interest loans

q2 in review

Tesla's second-quarter net income fell 45 percent compared with a year ago as the company's global electric vehicle sales tumbled despite price cuts and low-interest financing.

The Austin, Texas, company said Tuesday that it made $1.48 billion from April through June, less than the $2.7 billion it made in the same period of 2023. It was Tesla's second-straight quarterly net income decline.

Second quarter revenue rose 2 percent to $25.5 billion, beating Wall Street estimates of $24.54 billion, according to FactSet. Excluding one time items, Tesla made 52 cents per share, below analyst expectations of 61 cents.

Shares of Tesla fell about 8 percent in trading after Tuesday’s closing bell. The shares had been down more than 40 percent earlier in the year, but have since recovered most of the losses.

Earlier this month Tesla said it sold 443,956 vehicles from April through June, down 4.8 percent from 466,140 sold the same period a year ago. Although the sales were were better than the 436,000 that analysts had expected, they still were a sign of weakening demand for the company’s aging product lineup.

For the first half of the year, Tesla has sold about 831,000 vehicles worldwide, far short of the more than 1.8 million for the full year that CEO Elon Musk has predicted.

The company’s widely watched gross profit margin, the percentage of revenue it gets to keep after expenses, fell once again to 18 percent. A year ago it was 18.2 percent, and it peaked at 29.1 percent in the first quarter of 2022.

Tesla said it posted record quarterly revenue “despite a difficult operating environment.” The company’s energy-storage business took in just over $3 billion in revenue, double the amount in the same period last year.

CEO Elon Musk, who has tried to portray Tesla as an autonomous vehicle, robotics and artificial-intelligence company, told analysts on a conference call that the company's “Full Self Driving” system should be able to run without human supervision by the end of this year, although he acknowledged that his predictions “have been overly optimistic in the past.”

At present, “Full Self Driving” is being tested on public roads by some Tesla owners. The company says it cannot drive itself and human drivers must be ready to intervene at all times.

For many years Musk has said the system will allow a fleet of robotaxis to generate income for the company and Tesla owners, making use of the electric vehicles when they would have been parked. Musk has been touting self-driving vehicles as a growth catalyst for Tesla since “Full Self Driving” hardware went on sale late in 2015.

But in investigative documents, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it found 75 crashes and one death involving “Full Self Driving.” It’s not clear whether the system was at fault.

Later, Musk said he did not think approval by government regulators would be a limiting factor in deploying robotaxis. “If you’ve got billions of miles that show that in the future, unsupervised FSD is safer than humans, what regulator could really stand in the way of that?” he asked.

Musk told analysts he postponed the company’s August robotaxi unveil until Oct. 10 to make changes to improve the vehicle. He also said Tesla will show off a “couple of other things” at the event.

Musk said he expects Tesla to begin limited production of the Optimus humanoid robot early next year for use by Tesla. The robot already is doing work at a factory. In 2026, production would ramp up more to send robots to outside customers, he said.

Musk also said the company is on track to deliver its new more affordable vehicle in the first half of next year.

The company, he said, wants to wait until after the U.S. presidential election before deciding whether to build a new factory in Mexico. Republican nominee Donald Trump has threatened to slap tariffs on autos made in Mexico, so it wouldn't make sense to build there in that case, Musk said. Musk has endorsed Trump.

Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein attributed the large stock drop to Tesla giving little new specific information on vehicles or tangible financial targets. “Maybe some investors are saying ’you know, we didn’t get more details from management,'” Goldstein said.

Although the next scheduled catalyst that could move the stock is now the robotaxi event in October, Goldstein said Musk could share details of new products on X, his social media platform. “Elon Musk could share details of Tesla’s progress,” he said. “That could be a catalyst for the stock on any given day.”

During the quarter, Tesla's revenue from regulatory credits purchased by other automakers who can’t meet government emissions targets hit $890 million for the quarter, double Tesla’s amount of most previous quarters.

The company reported $622 million in “restructuring and other” expenses for the quarter, when it laid off over 10 percent of its workforce.

Tesla said in a note to investors that it’s between two major growth waves, with the next one coming through advances in autonomous vehicles and new models. But the company reiterated caution that its sales growth “may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.”

The pay package is likely to remain tied up in the Delaware Chancery Court and Supreme Court for months as Tesla tries to overturn the Delaware judge's rejection. Photo via Getty Images

Elon Musk gets green light from shareholders to get back $44.9B Tesla pay package

bullish on EVs

Tesla shareholders voted Thursday to restore CEO Elon Musk's record $44.9 billion pay package that was thrown out by a Delaware judge earlier this year, sending a strong vote of confidence in his leadership of the world's largest electric vehicle maker.

The favorable vote doesn’t necessarily mean that Musk will get the all-stock compensation anytime soon. The package is likely to remain tied up in the Delaware Chancery Court and Supreme Court for months as Tesla tries to overturn the Delaware judge's rejection.

Musk has raised doubts about his future with Tesla this year, writing on X, the social media platform he owns, that he wanted a 25% stake in the company in order to stop him from taking artificial intelligence development elsewhere. The higher stake is needed to control the use of AI, he has said.

Tesla also has struggled with falling sales and profit margins as demand for electric vehicles slows worldwide.

But at the company's annual meeting Thursday in Austin, Texas, Musk reassured shareholders that he will stick around, telling them he can't sell any stock in the compensation package for five years.

“It's not actually cash, and I can't cut and run, nor would I want to,” he said.

The company said late Thursday that shareholders had voted for Musk's compensation plan, which initially was approved by the board and stockholders six years ago.

Tesla last valued the package at $44.9 billion in an April regulatory filing. It was once as much as $56 billion but has declined in value in tandem with Tesla's stock, which has dropped about 25% so far this year.

Chancellor Kathaleen St. Jude McCormick ruled in January in a shareholder’s lawsuit that Musk essentially controlled the Tesla board when it ratified the package in 2018, and that it failed to fully inform shareholders who approved it the same year.

Tesla has said it would appeal, but asked shareholders to reapprove the package at Thursday’s annual meeting.

A separate vote approved moving the company’s legal home to Texas to avoid the courts in Delaware, where Tesla is registered as a corporation.

“Its incredible," a jubilant Musk told the crowd gathered at Tesla's headquarters and large factory in Austin, Texas. “I think we’re not just opening a new chapter for Tesla, we’re starting a new book.”

Musk and Tesla didn’t win everything. Shareholders approved measures that trimmed board member terms from three years to one and cut the required vote on shareholder proposals to a simple majority.

Legal experts say the issue of Musk’s pay will still be decided in Delaware, largely because Musk’s lawyers have assured McCormick they won’t try to move the case to Texas.

But they differ on whether the new ratification of the pay package will make it easier for Tesla to get it approved.

Charles Elson, a retired professor and founder of the corporate governance center at the University of Delaware, said he doesn’t think the vote will influence McCormick, who issued a decision based on the law.

McCormick’s ruling essentially made the 2018 compensation package a gift to Musk, Elson said, and that would need unanimous shareholder approval, an impossible threshold. The vote, he said, is interesting from a public perception standpoint, but “in my view it does not affect the ruling.”

John Lawrence, a Dallas-based lawyer with Baker Botts who defends corporations against shareholder lawsuits, agreed the vote doesn’t end the legal dispute and automatically give Musk the stock options. But he says it gives Tesla a strong argument to get the ruling overturned.

He expects Musk and Tesla to argue that shareholders were fully informed before the latest votes, so McCormick should reverse her decision. But the plaintiff in the lawsuit will argue that the vote has no impact and isn’t legally binding, Lawrence said.

The vote, he said, was done under Delaware law and should be considered by the judge.

“This shareholder vote is a strong signal that you now have an absolutely well-informed body of shareholders,” he said. “The judge in Delaware still could decide that this doesn’t change a thing about her prior ruling and doesn’t require her to make any different ruling going forward. But I think it definitely gives Tesla and Musk strong ammunition to try to get her to revisit this.”

If the ruling stands, then Musk likely will appeal to the Delaware Supreme Court, Lawrence said.

Multiple institutional investors have come out against Musk’s sizeable payout, some citing the company’s recent struggles. But analysts said votes by individual shareholders likely put Musk’s pay over the top.

Early Friday, Tesla disclosed that shareholders voted for Musk's pay package by 1,760,780,650 to 528,908,419, with about 77% of all votes in favor. The company's shares jumped 3% by the time the markets closed Thursday and were up 1.2% in premarket trading early Friday.

After the votes were announced, Musk began telling shareholders about new developments in the company's “Full Self-Driving” system. He has staked the company's future on development of autonomous vehicles, robots and artificial intelligence.

“Full Self-Driving” keeps improving with new versions, and its safety per mile is better than human drivers, Musk said.

"This is actually going to work. This is going to happen. Mark my words, this is just a matter of time,” he said.

Despite its name, “Full Self-Driving” can’t drive itself, and the company says human drivers must be ready to intervene at all times. Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” hardware went on sale late in 2015, and Musk has used the name ever since as the company gathered data to teach its computers how to drive.

In 2019, Musk promised a fleet of autonomous robotaxis by 2020, and he said in early 2022 that the cars would be autonomous that year. In April of last year, Musk said the system should be ready in 2023.

Since 2021, Tesla has been beta-testing “Full Self-Driving” using volunteer owners. U.S. safety regulators last year made Tesla recall the software after finding that the system misbehaved around intersections and could violate traffic laws.

Musk also said the company is making huge progress on its Optimus humanoid robot. Currently it has two working at its factory in Fremont, California, that take battery cells off a production line and put them in shipping containers, he said.

Despite laying off the team working on Tesla’s Supercharger electric vehicle charging network, Musk said he thinks the company will deploy more chargers this year “that are actually working” than the rest of the industry. In the second half of the year, he expects to spend $500 million on Superchargers, Musk said.

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Houston-based co. closes acquisition of 50 percent stake in Texas cogeneration facility

M&A Moves

Fengate Asset Management announced the financial close on the acquisition of a 50 percent interest in Freeport Power Limited, which owns a 440-megawatt cogeneration facility in Freeport, Texas.

FPL is located near the Freeport Energy Center, which is a 260-megawatt cogeneration facility that is currently owned and managed by Fengate. The two facilities work to provide cost-effective power and steam to Dow’s Freeport site, which is the largest integrated chemical manufacturing complex in the Western Hemisphere.

“We are thrilled to have closed this acquisition, which aligns with our strategy of acquiring behind-the-meter cogeneration projects with strong industrial partners like Dow,” Greg Calhoun, managing director of Infrastructure Investments at Fengate, says in a news release.

Fengate was able to acquire interest in FPL under a strategic operating partnership with asset manager Ironclad Energy. The partnership with Ironclad was established in 2022 to acquire and operate cogeneration, district energy and other power generation projects throughout North America.

“This is our second acquisition with Fengate, and we look forward to continuing our partnership to optimize and expand the portfolio,” Christopher Fanella, president and CFO of Ironclad Energy, says in the release.

Fengate opened its first U.S. office in 2017 in Houston.

“Combined heat and power projects like FPL will continue to play an important role in the U.S. power industry – especially for hard-to-abate industrial sectors – to ensure reliability, efficiency and affordability,” adds in the release.

Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

guest column

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

Houston company secures $10M contract to deliver subsea well decommissioning solution

big deal

Houston energy services provider Expro was awarded a contract valued at over $10 million for the provision of a well decommissioning solution.

The solution will combine subsea safety systems and surface processing design that can enable safe entry to the well and management of well fluids.

“The contract reinforces our reputation as the leading provider of subsea safety systems and surface well test equipment, including within the P&A sector,” Iain Farley, Expro’s regional vice president for Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, says in a news release. "It demonstrates our commitment to delivering best-in-class equipment, allied with the highest standards of safety and service quality that Expro is renowned for.”

Expro will provide from its global support hub in Aberdeen, a surface fluid management package and a market-leading 7-3/8 inch large-bore subsea test tree assembly (SSTTA). This will include surface tree and controls that can provide dual barrier and disconnect capability to facilitate re-entry into the subsea wells.

Expro has been supplying its subsea safety systems and well test equipment to the construction of many of the 52 wells now being plugged and abandoned.

“Having been involved in the development phase for many of these fields, we have gained a life of well experience that will be invaluable for this P&A campaign,” Farley adds. “Our expertise and know-how will help deliver key technical and commercial benefits for the client across the project.”

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