hydrogen index

Houston organization proposes Gulf Coast index for hydrogen market

The Clean Hydrogen Buyers Alliance plans to create the Gulf Coast Hydrogen Index to bring to bring transparency and confidence to hydrogen pricing. Photo via Getty Images

The Clean Hydrogen Buyers Alliance has proposed an index aimed at bringing transparency to pricing in the emerging hydrogen market.

The Houston-based alliance said the Gulf Coast Hydrogen Index, based on real-time data, would provide more clarity to pricing in the global market for hydrogen. The benchmarking effort is being designed to benefit clean hydrogen buyers, sellers and investors. The index would help position the U.S. “as the trading anchor for hydrogen’s next chapter as a globally traded commodity,” the alliance said.

According to ResearchAndMarkets.com, the global market for clean hydrogen was valued at $200 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $700 billion by 2040.

John Flory, president of the alliance, said the lack of a pricing index has relegated hydrogen to niche-market status.

“Capital is waiting. Buyers are ready. But until now, there’s been no credible, transparent pricing signal to guide clean hydrogen investing or contracting,” Edward Morse, co-chairman of the Clean Hydrogen Transaction Advisory Committee, said in a news release.

The index would treat the Gulf Coast as the primary delivery hub for pipeline-grade hydrogen in three categories: basic, low-carbon and ultra-low-carbon. It would be similar to the Henry Hub index for pricing of natural gas.

Roger Ballentine, co-chairman of the clean energy advisory committee, said the hydrogen index would build confidence in this energy source among government agencies, companies and investors. A Henry Hub-style benchmark for hydrogen “provides clarity, reduces risk, and lays the foundation for clean energy to become a globally traded commodity critical to decarbonization,” he said.

The Gulf Coast, with Texas as the focal point, is key to the evolution of the U.S. clean hydrogen economy, according to the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association.

At the core of the Gulf Coast’s role is the U.S. Department of Energy's selection of the Gulf Coast as one of the country’s seven regional hubs for clean hydrogen. However, the DOE has proposed cutting funding for the HyVelocity Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub, a $1.2 billion development in Texas and Louisiana by AES, Air Liquide, Chevron, ExxonMobil, MHI Hydrogen Infrastructure and Ørsted, according to a new list of proposed DOE funding cancellations.

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A View From HETI

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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