be warned

Texas-based EV giant foresees profit crunch amid price drops, slowing growth

Tesla warned that sales growth this year may be “notably lower” than the 2023 growth rate, as it works to launch a more affordable next-generation vehicle at a factory near Austin. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Shares of Tesla tumbled at the opening bell Thursday as the electric vehicle, solar panel and battery maker warned investors of slower sales growth this year after posting fourth-quarter results that were weaker than most had expected.

In a letter to shareholders released Wednesday, Tesla warned that sales growth this year may be “notably lower” than the 2023 growth rate, as it works to launch a more affordable next-generation vehicle at a factory near Austin.

Tesla, the letter said, is between two big growth waves, one from global expansion of the Models 3 and Y, and a second coming from the new vehicle.

The company, which is headed by billionaire Elon Musk, reported a fourth-quarter adjusted profit of 71 cents per share on revenue of $25.17 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet predicted a profit of 73 cents per share. Revenue was expected to be $25.64 billion.

Profits were off because Tesla lowered prices worldwide through the year in an effort to boost its sales and market share.

Shares slid more than 9 percent in Thursday morning trading.

Wedbush's Dan Ives said in a client note that Tesla's conference call on Wednesday to go over its financial results left many frustrated.

“Consistent with last quarter’s call, investors wanted to get their arms around the falling margins and constant, never ending price cuts seen globally, but instead, we heard from a much more cautious Musk who focused on production, next-gen vehicle timelines, and FSD/AI investments where much of the larger Tesla story was talked about instead of concrete guidance,” Ives wrote.

Still, the analyst remains optimistic on Tesla, believing that electric vehicle adoption to a broader mass market is near. However, Ives concedes there are still challenges to contend with.

“This is a pivotal period for Musk to get Tesla through that will help shape (or haunt) its EV future," he said.

Jeffrey Osborne of TD Cowen said that in the short term, it will be hard for EV competitors to catch up to Tesla as the company focuses on electrical efficiency and investing in battery technology. However, the analyst said there is “a great deal” of production-related risk in coming quarters that could possibly pressure margins and the stock as Tesla ramps up new plants in Germany and Texas and new vehicles.

A year ago, Tesla announced its plans to expand its Texas facility.

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A View From HETI

Naomi Halas has pioneered insights into how light and matter interact at small scales, which led to the founding of Houston-based Syzygy Plasmonics. Photo by Jeff Fitlow/Rice University

Naomi Halas, a Rice University professor and co-founder of Syzygy Plasmonics, was elected to the Council of the National Academy of Sciences this month.

The council sets priorities for the nonprofit organization, which advises the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Halas will serve a three-year term on the council, beginning July 1.

“The council’s work is focused on the academy’s national leadership and governance,” Halas said in a news release. “It plays an important role in helping set initiatives and priorities for the scientific community, and in supporting the conditions that allow science to move forward in meaningful ways.”

Halas is best known for her pioneering work in nanophotonics and plasmonics. She helped develop nanoshells, or metal-coated nanoparticles that capture light energy, which have led to innovations in renewable energy, cancer therapy and water purification.

Halas co-founded Syzygy Plasmonics with frequent collaborator and fellow Rice professor Peter Nordlander. The company is developing low-cost, light-driven, all-electric chemical reactors for the sustainable production of hydrogen fuel. It was named to Fast Company's energy innovation list last year.

Syzygy Plasmonics is developing its first commercial-scale biogas-to-sustainable aviation fuel project in Uruguay, known as NovaSAF-1. It secured a six-year offtake agreement for the entire production from the project with Singapore-based commodity company Trafigura this month.

Halas was first elected to become a member of the NAS in 2013, and was shortly after named to the National Academy of Engineering in 2014—making her one of the few scientists to hold both distinctions. She received the Benjamin Franklin Medal in Chemistry last year. Many scientists who have received the award have gone on to win Nobel prizes.

She is also the co-founder of Nanospectra Biosciences and a member of the National Academy of Inventors, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Royal Danish Academy of Science and Letters. She holds more than 25 patents, according to Rice.

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