be warned

Texas-based EV giant foresees profit crunch amid price drops, slowing growth

Tesla warned that sales growth this year may be “notably lower” than the 2023 growth rate, as it works to launch a more affordable next-generation vehicle at a factory near Austin. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Shares of Tesla tumbled at the opening bell Thursday as the electric vehicle, solar panel and battery maker warned investors of slower sales growth this year after posting fourth-quarter results that were weaker than most had expected.

In a letter to shareholders released Wednesday, Tesla warned that sales growth this year may be “notably lower” than the 2023 growth rate, as it works to launch a more affordable next-generation vehicle at a factory near Austin.

Tesla, the letter said, is between two big growth waves, one from global expansion of the Models 3 and Y, and a second coming from the new vehicle.

The company, which is headed by billionaire Elon Musk, reported a fourth-quarter adjusted profit of 71 cents per share on revenue of $25.17 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet predicted a profit of 73 cents per share. Revenue was expected to be $25.64 billion.

Profits were off because Tesla lowered prices worldwide through the year in an effort to boost its sales and market share.

Shares slid more than 9 percent in Thursday morning trading.

Wedbush's Dan Ives said in a client note that Tesla's conference call on Wednesday to go over its financial results left many frustrated.

“Consistent with last quarter’s call, investors wanted to get their arms around the falling margins and constant, never ending price cuts seen globally, but instead, we heard from a much more cautious Musk who focused on production, next-gen vehicle timelines, and FSD/AI investments where much of the larger Tesla story was talked about instead of concrete guidance,” Ives wrote.

Still, the analyst remains optimistic on Tesla, believing that electric vehicle adoption to a broader mass market is near. However, Ives concedes there are still challenges to contend with.

“This is a pivotal period for Musk to get Tesla through that will help shape (or haunt) its EV future," he said.

Jeffrey Osborne of TD Cowen said that in the short term, it will be hard for EV competitors to catch up to Tesla as the company focuses on electrical efficiency and investing in battery technology. However, the analyst said there is “a great deal” of production-related risk in coming quarters that could possibly pressure margins and the stock as Tesla ramps up new plants in Germany and Texas and new vehicles.

A year ago, Tesla announced its plans to expand its Texas facility.

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A View From HETI

A new report shows that Texas data centers used 25 billion gallons of water in 2025. Photo via HARC report.

As data centers continue to boom throughout Texas, a new report from the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) warns that the trend could strain the state’s water supply.

HARC estimates Texas data centers used 25 billion gallons of water in 2025—and that the demand for water will continue to rise to meet the needs of the 464 data centers currently in Texas, as well as 70 additional sites currently under development.

In the report, titled “Thirsty Data and the Lone Star State: The Impact of Data Center Growth on Texas’ Water Supply,” The Woodlands-based nonprofit says that water use for cooling data centers is expected to double or triple by 2028 on the national level. If projections hold, the total annual water use for data centers in Texas will increase by 0.5 percent to 2.7 percent by 2030, or to between 29 billion and 161 billion gallons of water consumed.

Data centers often use water for cooling, though water demand is dependent on the type of cooling used, the size and type of the data center. Although used water can be reused, some new water withdrawals are always needed to replace evaporated water and other systems’ water losses. Water is also used to cool the power plants that generate electricity used by the data centers.

The HARC report offers guidance to address the overall concerns of water demands by data centers, including:

  • Dry cooling methods
  • Increased reliance on wind and solar energy sources
  • Alternative water supplies, like treated wastewater or brackish water for cooling
  • Adjusted operating schedules to accommodate water usage
  • Partnering with local companies to develop projects that reduce water leaks
  • Companies creating their own water infrastructure investments

The report goes on to explain that the Texas State Water Plan, produced by the Texas Water Development Board, projects shortages of 1.6 trillion gallons by 2030 and 2.3 trillion gallons by 2070. HARC posits that the recent surge in water demand from AI data centers is not fully reflected in those projections.

"Texas water plans always look backward, not forward," the report reads. "That means the 2027 water plan, which is in development now, will be based on 2026 regional water plans that do not include forecasted data center water use. Data centers that began operation in 2025 will not be added to the State Water Plan until 2032."

Currently, there are no state regulations that require data centers to report how much water they use. However, the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) plans to survey operators of data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities on their water consumption, cooling methods and electricity sources this spring. It is expected to release the results by the end of the year. The companies will have six weeks to respond. The Texas Water Development Board will assist the PUCT on the questions.

“I think we all recognize the importance of data centers and the technology they support and what they give to our modern-day life,” PUC Commissioner Courtney Hjaltman said during the last commission meeting. “Texans, regulators and the legislature really need that understanding of data centers, really need to understand the water they’re using so that we can plan and create the Texas we want.”

See the full HARC report here.

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