be warned

Texas-based EV giant foresees profit crunch amid price drops, slowing growth

Tesla warned that sales growth this year may be “notably lower” than the 2023 growth rate, as it works to launch a more affordable next-generation vehicle at a factory near Austin. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Shares of Tesla tumbled at the opening bell Thursday as the electric vehicle, solar panel and battery maker warned investors of slower sales growth this year after posting fourth-quarter results that were weaker than most had expected.

In a letter to shareholders released Wednesday, Tesla warned that sales growth this year may be “notably lower” than the 2023 growth rate, as it works to launch a more affordable next-generation vehicle at a factory near Austin.

Tesla, the letter said, is between two big growth waves, one from global expansion of the Models 3 and Y, and a second coming from the new vehicle.

The company, which is headed by billionaire Elon Musk, reported a fourth-quarter adjusted profit of 71 cents per share on revenue of $25.17 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet predicted a profit of 73 cents per share. Revenue was expected to be $25.64 billion.

Profits were off because Tesla lowered prices worldwide through the year in an effort to boost its sales and market share.

Shares slid more than 9 percent in Thursday morning trading.

Wedbush's Dan Ives said in a client note that Tesla's conference call on Wednesday to go over its financial results left many frustrated.

“Consistent with last quarter’s call, investors wanted to get their arms around the falling margins and constant, never ending price cuts seen globally, but instead, we heard from a much more cautious Musk who focused on production, next-gen vehicle timelines, and FSD/AI investments where much of the larger Tesla story was talked about instead of concrete guidance,” Ives wrote.

Still, the analyst remains optimistic on Tesla, believing that electric vehicle adoption to a broader mass market is near. However, Ives concedes there are still challenges to contend with.

“This is a pivotal period for Musk to get Tesla through that will help shape (or haunt) its EV future," he said.

Jeffrey Osborne of TD Cowen said that in the short term, it will be hard for EV competitors to catch up to Tesla as the company focuses on electrical efficiency and investing in battery technology. However, the analyst said there is “a great deal” of production-related risk in coming quarters that could possibly pressure margins and the stock as Tesla ramps up new plants in Germany and Texas and new vehicles.

A year ago, Tesla announced its plans to expand its Texas facility.

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A View From HETI

James Shee, Naihao Chiang and Tony Geng have received the Department of Energy’s Early Career Award. Photos courtesy Rice and UH

Researchers at Rice University, the University of Houston and other Texas universities have been awarded the Department of Energy’s Early Career Award for their work in quantum science, AI and more.

Each professor who received the honor will be awarded $875,000 over five years to continue their work.

The Houston-area recipients include:

  • James Shee, assistant professor of chemistry at Rice University
  • Tony Geng, assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at Rice
  • Naihao Chiang, assistant professor in the department of chemistry at the University of Houston

For Shee, the award will support his work to advance a “first principles platform to simulate the quantum dynamics of chemical systems of relevance to sustainable energy consumption and generation,” according to a news release from Rice.

“Support from the Department of Energy will enable my group to pursue the ambitious quantum chemistry development required to simulate the dynamics of transition metal-based molecular computing paradigms and multi-excitonic processes in a purely ab initio manner,” Shee said in the release.

Geng is developing next-generation AI for real-time digital twins for scientific systems. Geng and his team will make microchips that function as trainable electronic dynamical systems computing through natural, continuous evolution rather than digital instructions, according to the university.

Chiang’s work at UH addresses the DOE’s Quantum Information Science priority. Chiang leads a team that develops and applies “plasmonic-enhanced near-field optical techniques” to investigate fundamental light-matter interactions at the quantum limit before applying them to emerging technologies. In addition, the team will use AI to help with data acquisition and will utilize STEM workforce development.

Dr. Joshua Burby, an assistant professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Texas at Austin, and Junyeong Ahn, who is part of the University’s Texas Quantum Institute, also received early career awards for their work in superconducting and fusion technologies. See the full list of recipients from around the country here.

“The energy and creativity of early-career scientists is crucial for propelling scientific discovery forward. The Department of Energy is committed to nurturing this talent through programs like the Early Career Research Program,” Darío Gil, DOE under secretary for science, added in a release. “These awards provide essential resources and opportunities for collaboration, enabling these researchers to explore novel concepts and accelerate the development of solutions for our nation’s energy and scientific landscape.”

The DOE has also doled out funding to Houston researchers and companies in recent months through its Genesis Mission and geothermal initiatives.

Researchers from Rice, UH and Halliburton were named in July among the nearly 300 projects selected under the Trump administration's Genesis Mission, which aims to address some of the largest science and technology challenges in the country

In September, three Houston companies also received more than $45 million in funding from the DOE's Next-Generation Geothermal Field Tests and Geothermal Resource Characterization and Confirmation initiative to advance geothermal technologies and field tests. The projects were among 21 selected from around the country to receive a total of $99 million. Read more here.

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