EV surge could shutter 40 refineries by 2040, Wood Mackenzie report warns

ev outlook

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040. Photo via Unsplash

The rise of electric vehicles could spell trouble for Houston’s oil and gas sector, a new report suggests. But the oil and gas industry stands to benefit from potential sluggishness in U.S. adoption of EVs.

If worldwide EV adoption rises as expected, global oil demand could fall by five million barrels per day by 2040, accelerating the closure of about 40 oil refineries, says the report, published by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The firm’s North American hub is in Houston.

Those closures might spell trouble for refinery operators with a sizable Houston-area presence, including BP, ExxonMobil, Marathon, Saudi Aramco, and Valero. In 2025, the five companies collectively earned roughly $33 billion from downstream operations, including refineries. One caveat: Each company assigns a different definition to “downstream.”

Refineries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, including the U.S. but excluding Middle Eastern heavyweights, “are most at risk due to their high energy costs and carbon prices,” the Wood Mackenzie report says.

On the flip side, an abundant U.S. oil supply means American drivers have less of an incentive to switch from traditional cars to electric vehicles, despite stubbornly high fuel prices, according to the report.

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040, up from three percent in 2025. That compares with a global forecast of 25 percent in 2040, up from 4 percent last year.

Another U.S. roadblock to EV adoption cited in the report: the country’s relative lack of advanced battery manufacturing.

“Without advanced battery technologies, the U.S. auto sector is at risk of ceding its home market to non-Chinese EVs and falling behind competitors internationally,” the report says.

Furthermore, according to the report, Chinese investment in EV manufacturing in the U.S. probably will remain a no-go and tariffs on Chinese EV imports likely won’t be lifted, even if Democrats resurrected EV incentives following a White House win in 2028.

“Competition among EV manufacturers in international markets will only intensify,” the report notes. “Companies that can offer competitive products in high-growth markets will be best positioned for long-term success.”

From Your Site Articles

Fervo Energy's flagship Cape Station geothermal project is scheduled to start delivering power to the grid this year. Photo courtesy Fervo Energy

Houston trio lands on Time’s list of 10 most influential energy companies

making an impact

Three companies with headquarters in Houston made Time magazine’s new list of the 10 most influential energy companies.

The unranked list includes:

Houston-based oil and gas giant Chevron
Houston-based Fervo Energy, a geothermal power provider that just went public in a $1.9 billion IPO
Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston

In naming Chevron to the list, Time cites the company’s standing as the only major American oil company operating in Venezuela. Time says Chevron wields “extraordinary power” over Venezuela’s massive oil reserves.

Despite pressure from the White House on U.S. oil and gas producers to ramp up investments in Venezuela, “Chevron has pumped the brakes, pledging to boost output gradually and not chase price fluctuations,” Time says.

“Chevron has been in Venezuela for over a century,” CEO Mike Wirth told shareholders in January. “We remain committed to leveraging our deep expertise and long-standing partnerships for the benefit of our shareholders and the people of Venezuela.”

Time points out that Fervo sits “at the front of the pack” in generation of geothermal energy. The Houston-based company uses fracking techniques borrowed from the oil and gas industry to create underground hot-rock reservoirs that heat water to generate electricity.

Fervo’s Cape Station in Utah is scheduled to start delivering power to the grid this year. At full capacity of 500 megawatts, it will be the first large-scale commercial geothermal plant in the U.S. Time says another site in Utah, Project Blanford, is Fervo’s hottest well yet, highlighting the potential for harnessing geothermal heat for at-scale clean energy.

“It’s hard to find something that can [deliver] reliable 24/7 energy, that’s carbon-free, and can be constructed in a timely manner,” Fervo CEO Tim Latimer said. “It’s energy without a lot of the compromises.”

Government-owned Saudi Aramco, which last year earned $104.7 billion in profit, not only is a dominant player in the Mideast oil and gas sector, but Time says it holds “global clout in politics and business” that reaches far beyond oilfields. For example, the company finances big projects spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, who chairs Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. These include initiatives in global sports, tourism, and AI.

20-plus companies will pitch at Energy Tech Nexus' Pilotathon during Houston Energy & Climate Startup Week. Photo via Getty Images.

Energy Tech Nexus announces international startups to pitch at Pilotathon

Ready, Set, Pitch

Energy Tech Nexus will host its Pilotathon and Showcase as part of Houston Energy & Climate Startup Week next Tuesday, Sept. 16, featuring insightful talks from industry leaders and pitches from an international group of companies in the clean energy space.

This year's event will center around the theme "Energy Access and Resilience." Attendees will hear pitches from nine Pilotathon pitch companies, as well as the 14 companies that were named to Energy Tech Nexus' COPILOT accelerator earlier this year.

COPILOT partners with Browning the Green Space, a nonprofit that promotes diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) in the clean energy and climatetech sectors. The Wells Fargo Innovation Incubator (IN²) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory backs the COPILOT accelerator, where companies are tasked with developing pilot projects for their innovations.

The nine Pilotathon pitch companies include:

Ontario-based AlumaPower, which has developed a breakthrough technology that converts the aluminum-air battery into a "galvanic generator," a long-duration energy source that runs on aluminum as a fuel
Calgary-based BioOilSolv, a chemical manufacturing company that has developed cutting-edge biomass-derived solvents
Atlanta-based Cultiv8 Fuels, which creates high-quality renewable fuel products derived from hemp
Newfoundland-based eDNAtec Inc., a leader in environmental genomics that analyzes biodiversity and ecological health
Oregon-based Espiku Inc., which designs and develops water treatment and mineral extraction technologies that rely on low-pressure evaporative cycles
New York-based Fast Metals Inc., which has developed a chemical process to extract valuable metals from complex toxic mine tailings that is capable of producing iron, aluminum, scandium, titanium and other rare earth elements using industrial waste and waste CO2 as inputs
New Jersey-based Metal Light Inc., which is building a circular, solid metal fuel that will serve as a replacement for diesel fuel
Glasgow-based Novosound, which designs and manufactures innovative ultrasound sensors using a thin-film technique to address the limitations of traditional ultrasound with applications in industrial, medical and wearable markets
Calgary-based Serenity Power, which has developed a cutting-edge solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology

The COPILOT accelerator companies include:

Accelerate Wind
Aquora Biosystems Inc.
EarthEn
Electromaim
EnKoat
GeoFuels
Harber Coatings Inc.
Janta Power
NanoSieve
PolyQor Inc.
Popper Power
Siva Powers America
ThermoShade
V-Glass Inc.

Houston energy company focused on decarbonization raises $53M series C

money moves

Houston-based Utility Global, a maker of decarbonization-focused gas production technology, has raised $53 million in an ongoing series C round.

Among the participants in the round are Canada’s Ontario Power Generation Pension Plan, the XCarb Innovation Fund operated by Luxembourg-based steel company ArcelorMittal, Houston-based investment firm Ara Partners, and Saudi Aramco’s investment arm.

Also, Utility Global and ArcelorMittal have agreed to develop at least one decarbonization facility at an ArcelorMittal steel plant.

The latest infusion of cash will support the rollout of Utility Global’s eXERO technology, including establishment of the company’s first commercial facilities in 2026.

“With the successful completion of its demonstration program at a commercial steel facility resulting in the first hydrogen ever produced from blast furnace off-gasses in a single reactor, the company has shifted to commercial deployments,” Utility Global says in a news release.

Utility Global’s technology enables reduction of greenhouse gas emissions along with generation of low-carbon fuels and chemicals.

“Our eXERO solution is the first of its kind to convert process gasses into clean hydrogen in a single reactor, onsite, in a cost-effective manner that extends the life of existing customer assets and processes while providing significant emissions reductions,” says Claus Nussgruber, CEO of Utility Global.

Houston-based energy companies have again held a sizable presence on the Fortune 500 ranking. Photo via Getty Images

Houston energy companies score big on annual Fortune 500 ranking

big cos.

Fourteen businesses with global or regional headquarters in the Houston area appear on Fortune’s new list of the world’s 500 biggest companies.

Oil and gas company Saudi Aramco, whose headquarters for the Americas is in Houston, leads the Houston-area pack. With annual revenue of $494.9 billion, it lands at No. 4 on the Fortune Global 500. Ahead of Saudi Aramco are U.S. retailers Walmart and Amazon, and Chinese electric company State Grid.

To put Saudi Aramco’s annual revenue in perspective, the total is slightly above the gross domestic product for the Philippines.

For the third year in a row, Saudi Aramco stands out as the most profitable member of the Fortune Global 500. The company racked up $121 billion in profit last year.

Overall, Saudi Aramco and 32 other petroleum refiners — many of them with a significant presence in the Houston area — made the Fortune Global 500.

“The Global 500 is the ultimate scorecard for business success. The aggregate revenue of the Fortune Global 500 in 2023 reached $41 trillion, a record level. That sum represents more than a third of global GDP — a sign of how much economic power is concentrated in these companies,” Scott DeCarlo, Fortune’s vice president of research, says in a news release.

Here’s the rundown of Fortune Global 500 companies with global or regional headquarters in the Houston area, including the ranking and annual revenue for each:

Saudi Aramco, No. 4, $494.9 billion, Americas headquarters in Houston
ExxonMobil, No. 12, $344.6 billion, global headquarters in Spring
Shell, No. 13, $323.2 billion; U.S. headquarters in Houston
TotalEnergies, No. 23, $218.9 billion, U.S. headquarters in Houston
BP, No. 25, $213 billion, U.S. headquarters in Houston
Chevron, No. 29, $200.9 billion, global headquarters relocating to Houston in 2024
Phillips 66, No. 52, $149.9 billion, global headquarters in Houston
Engie, No. 130, $89.3 billion, North American headquarters in Houston
Sysco, No. 163, $76.3 billion, global headquarters in Houston
ConocoPhillips, No. 235, $58.6 billion, global headquarters in Houston
Enterprise Products Partners, No. 303, $49.7 billion, global headquarters in Houston
Plains GP Holdings, No. 311, $48.7 billion, global headquarters in Houston
LyondellBasell, No. 368, $41.1 billion, global headquarters in Houston
SLB (formerly Schlumberger), No. 479, $33.1 billion, global headquarters in Houston

Fortune uses revenue figures for budget years ending on or before March 31, 2024, to rank the world’s largest companies.

Five companies with connections to Houston have made it on this year’s 100 most influential companies by Time magazine. Photo via Getty Images

Houston energy businesses score spots on prestigious list of most influential companies

LEADING THE PACK

Five companies with strong ties to Houston have been named among this year’s 100 most influential companies by Time magazine, with a few representing the energy industry.

The five companies are:

South Korea’s Hanwha Group, whose Hanwha Power Systems Americas subsidiary is in Houston. Hanwha, known as the “Lockheed Martin of Asia,” was praised for winning approval last year from the American Bureau of Shipping for the world’s first large-scale, carbon-free liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessel.
Saudi Aramco, whose Americas headquarters is in Houston. Time cited Saudi Aramco’s dominance in the global oil market as a $1.9 billion “giant.”
Germany-based ThyssenKrupp Nucera, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston. The company builds alkaline water electrolyzers to power steel mills and other fossil-fuel-dependent industrial sites.
United Airlines, which operates a hub at George Bush Intercontinental Airport. Chicago-based United was lauded for funding startups that help produce sustainable aviation fuel.
Houston-based Intuitive Machines. In February, the company’s Odysseus spacecraft became the first commercial spacecraft to land on the moon. The feat also marked the first U.S. landing on the moon since 1972.

To come up with the fourth annual list, Time solicited nominations and polled in-house contributors and correspondents, along with external experts. Editors at Time then evaluated each company based on factors such as impact, innovation, ambition, and success.

“The result is a diverse group of 100 businesses helping chart an essential path forward,” the magazine says.

In a news release, Time’s editor in chief, Sam Jacobs, says the list of 100 companies “is more than an index of business success.”

“It is an argument for what business influence looks like in 2024,” Jacobs adds. “At a time when leadership in other sectors is battered, surveys suggest that many look to corporate leaders first for direction …. Each show us how companies can provide new models and new inspiration for the future of humanity.”

———
This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

Ad Placement 300x100

Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

8+ must-attend Houston energy transition events in October 2026

Must-Attend Meetings

Editor's note: October is here, and there are many energy events to plug into in Houston this month. From summits and forums to exhibitions and networking opportunities, these are the top events to put on your calendar. Learn more below, and register now.

Oct. 6-7: Hydrogen Americas Summit and Exhibition

Hydrogen Americas delivers an unparalleled opportunity to explore how hydrogen integrates with CCUS and other energy solutions under the new U.S. and Americas energy paradigm. This event moves to Houston in 2026, providing unmatched access to industry leaders and opportunities. The summit will include CCUS dedicated sessions integrated directly into the conference programming, providing deeper insights into carbon capture, utilization, and storage. Look forward to networking opportunities to connect with global suppliers, regional developers, and key policymakers.

This event begins Oct. 6 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

Oct. 6-7: Annual Energy Summit — Energy, Risk, and Geopolitics

The 10th annual energy summit is co-hosted by Baker Botts and the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute. This year's summit, “Energy, Risk, and Geopolitics,” will explore how a changing geopolitical landscape and shifts in supply chain risks are impacting investment, innovation, and market dynamics. The two-day program will include discussions spanning petroleum and LNG markets, critical minerals, electricity reliability, AI, and power demand.

This event begins Oct. 6 at 7:30 am at James A Baker III Hall. The event will also be livestreamed. Register here.

Oct. 7: Industrial Data Forward Forum 2026

Houston continues to sit at the intersection of energy, chemical production, and advanced manufacturing. Industrial data experts, automation engineers, and enterprise architects will gather for this one-day forum to address one of the region's biggest operational challenges: modernizing massive, legacy industrial plants without incurring high costs.

This event takes place Oct. 7 at Norris Conference Center. Register here.

Oct. 14: Houston Engineering, Energy & Transportation Networking Event

Connect with leading engineers, energy experts, environmental innovators, and transportation professionals during an evening of collaboration, insight, and opportunity. This exclusive event is designed for engineers, project developers, renewable energy specialists, urban planners, environmental consultants, and infrastructure leaders eager to expand their networks, exchange ideas, and explore solutions driving the future of sustainable development.

This event takes place on Oct. 14 at 7 pm at SOHO Garden. Get tickets here.

Oct. 14: Future of Global Energy Conference

This October, the sixth annual Future of Global Energy Conference kicks off, convening influential leaders from across energy, technology, finance and public policy who will come together to explore the forces defining the next era of global energy and Houston’s role in shaping it. Ryan Lance, Executive Chairman of ConocoPhillips and 2027 Chair of the Greater Houston Partnership’s Board of Directors, is the keynote speaker, bringing a global perspective on rising demand, market volatility and Houston’s role in the next era of energy growth.

This event takes place Oct. 14 at Marriott Marquis. Register here.

Oct. 17: Energy Day 2026

Energy Day Houston is the nation’s largest free, family-friendly STEM festival. It features over 50 interactive exhibits and live demonstrations focused on traditional and emerging energy career paths to power up your curiosity.

This event begins at 11 am on Oct. 17 at Sam Houston Park. Get details here.

Oct. 22: Geophysical Society of Houston Fall Forum

This one-day event will explore how geophysics continues to drive value in hydrocarbon development while opening new opportunities in geothermal, critical minerals, mining, microseismic monitoring, and other emerging subsurface applications. The forum will highlight both the technologies and business strategies needed to succeed in a rapidly evolving energy landscape.

This event begins at 7 am on Oct. 22 at SLB. Get details here.

Oct. 28-29: Energy Council Houston 2026

Energy Council Houston is a private executive forum for leaders across the U.S. upstream oil and gas sector. Over two days, operators, investors, financiers, and strategic partners will come together to discuss the issues shaping capital allocation, energy security, M&A activity, and energy investment across North America.

This event begins Oct. 28 at the Four Seasons Hotel Houston. Register here.

Houston geothermal company picks Nevada site for commercial-scale project

coming soon

Sage Geosystems, a Houston-based developer of geothermal power systems, has chosen a site in Nevada for its commercial-scale Project Vector facility.

The company’s two-well enhanced geothermal system (EGS) will deliver around-the-clock geothermal heat to Ormat Technologies’ Blue Mountain geothermal power plant in Winnemucca, Nevada.

The startup expects to begin drilling the first well later this year, with the first electricity to be generated in 2027 and full-scale production to start in 2028.

In the Nevada system, fluid will circulate through an engineered subsurface reservoir, absorb heat from the surrounding rock and return heat to the surface. The heat will be delivered to the Blue Mountain plant for conversion into electricity.

Project Vector builds on the performance of Sage’s SMECI facility in South Texas. That facility’s results, combined with Sage’s digital twin platform, will be used to shape to the design and development of Project Vector.

Project Vector supports Sage’s growing commercial pipeline, including a 150-megawatt geothermal power agreement with Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram.

“Blue Mountain is an ideal location for Sage to take the next step in continuing to commercialize our proprietary EGS approach,” Jason Peart, chief operating officer at Sage, said in a release. “By delivering geothermal heat into an existing power plant, Project Vector can demonstrate the model for bringing firm, 24/7 geothermal power to market at scale.”

Project Vector extends Sage’s relationship with Ormat.

In August 2025, Sage and Ormat agreed to accelerate commercialization of Sage’s geothermal technology at an Ormat power plant. This January, Ormat co-led Sage’s $97 million Series B funding round.

Sage, founded in 2020, has raised about $159 million across three funding rounds.

As the startup ramps up its ESG platform, Sage is targeting data centers as customers, among other large-scale users of electricity.

“The energy needs are huge, and they need it now,” CEO Cindy Taff said on Data Center Frontiers’ podcast. “They can’t depend on the grid anymore.”

Houston’s power advantage: Key takeaways from 2026 HETI Power Summit

The view from heti

Power has become a defining economic development issue as electricity demand rises across Texas.

Industrial expansion, advanced manufacturing, AI and data center growth are increasing the importance of reliable, affordable power delivered on the timelines major projects require.

The 2026 HETI Power Summit, titled Houston’s Power Advantage: Competing for Large-Load Growth, brought together leaders from utilities, power producers, large energy customers, technology and infrastructure providers, professional services firms and the public sector to examine how Houston can meet this moment.

Across keynotes, research report-outs, panel discussions and a fireside chat, a consistent theme emerged: Houston’s power advantage comes from the region’s ability to align utilities, customers, infrastructure, flexible demand, emerging solutions and regional partners around reliable, affordable and timely growth.

Reliability and Readiness

Public Utility Commission of Texas Commissioner Kathleen Jackson opened the summit by emphasizing reliability as the foundation for continued growth as Texas electricity demand rises.

Commissioner Jackson underscored the importance of sustained planning and investment to support new industrial, manufacturing and digital demand while maintaining a reliable power system. Remarks framed the morning’s broader discussion of how Houston can pair reliability with speed, affordability and long-term system readiness.

Scott Cockerham of FTI Consulting previewed HETI and FTI’s “Texas Power Market & Industry Assessment”. The research identifies accessibility, reliability, affordability, market flexibility and infrastructure readiness as key dimensions of regional competitiveness.

Leaders from FTI Consulting, Kroll, AWS and Constellation also discussed factors shaping major investment decisions, including reliability, infrastructure timelines, cost certainty, site readiness, community support and regional coordination.

For large customers, these factors must translate into credible project-level execution. Confidence in system performance, energization timelines and infrastructure plans can materially influence major capital commitments.

Building for the Houston We Want to Become

Jason Ryan of CenterPoint Energy challenged participants to plan now for the infrastructure needed to support Houston’s next phase of growth. Drawing on the idea that “what got you here won’t get you there,” Ryan urged the region to build infrastructure for “the Houston we want to become” and stay ahead of large-load demand.

A fireside discussion between CenterPoint Energy and Foxconn brought that challenge to the customer level. The conversation explored how early coordination between utilities and large customers can help advanced manufacturing projects move from site selection and planning to construction and operation.

Long-term growth will require continued investment in generation, transmission and distribution. In the near term, better use of existing infrastructure can create additional capacity.

HETI also shared findings from its Role of Efficiency & Demand Response to Meet Near-Term Regional Power Demand report. Energy efficiency can lower baseline electricity use, while demand response can shift or reduce demand during critical periods. Combined with supply-side investment, these tools can create grid headroom as longer-term infrastructure advances.

The summit’s closing panel, featuring leaders from Amperon, Enchanted Rock, EY and Quanta Services, expanded the discussion to emerging solutions. Panelists explored modular and flexible generation, advanced forecasting, grid intelligence and greater coordination among utilities, customers, infrastructure providers and communities.

Houston’s broader regional power landscape adds another dimension. Entergy Texas President and CEO Eli Viamontes described Southeast Texas as experiencing an “extraordinary trifecta of residential, industrial and data center growth.” His remarks highlighted how the MISO-facing portion of the region complements Houston’s ERCOT strengths through utility planning, generation and infrastructure investment, resource adequacy and coordination with major industrial customers.

Together, these approaches point to a broader strategy: invest for long-term demand while using flexibility, technology and regional coordination to create capacity for growth today.

From Power Advantage to Economic Advantage

Taken together, the Power Summit discussions point to a clear priority for Houston: translating power market and infrastructure strengths into coordinated execution.

Priority areas include earlier infrastructure planning, stronger site and project readiness, clearer pathways from projected demand to reliably served load, expanded efficiency and flexibility, and sustained coordination among utilities, customers, policymakers, communities, technology providers and economic development organizations.

HETI is advancing this work through research and convening efforts focused on Houston’s evolving power needs and economic competitiveness.

The 2026 Power Summit reinforced Houston’s strong foundation for power-intensive growth and the importance of aligning investment, reliability, flexibility and regional coordination around the next generation of economic opportunity.

———

This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. Gain more insights from HETI’s Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Report.

View All Listings

ENERGYCAPITALHTX EMAILS ARE AWESOME