The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

  • "Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
  • "The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
  • "Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

  • EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
  • EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
  • In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

The University of Houston and Heriot-Watt University in Scotland have secured funding for six energy projects. Photo via Getty Images

Researchers from Houston, Scotland receive seed grants to power collaborative energy solutions, innovations

transatlantic collaboration

The University of Houston and Scotland’s Heriot-Watt University have been awarded seed grants to six energy projects, which is part of an innovative transatlantic research collaboration.

Researchers from both universities will take on projects that will concentrate on innovations that range from advanced hydrogen sensing technology to converting waste into sustainable products.

This will mark the first round of awards under the “UH2HWU” seed grant program. The program was created following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between both institutions in 2024. The universities will “seek to drive global progress in energy research, education, and innovation, with a particular focus on hydrogen as a key element in the shift toward cleaner energy,” according to a news release.

“This partnership is rooted in a shared commitment to advancing research that supports a just energy transition,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at UH, says in a news release. “Hydrogen, and in particular low carbon hydrogen, is essential to achieving sustainable energy solutions.”

The UH2HWU program provided $20,000 in seed funding to each of the projects. The program will help with the goal of helping researchers secure additional funding from private sources, companies, and government with a total of 11 proposals being submitted, and a panel of industry experts reviewing them.

One of the winning projects was titled “A joint research project on the feasibility of Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Clean Energy in the North Sea aka ROICE North Sea,” and was led by Ram Seetharam, ROICE Program executive director at UH, Edward Owens, professor of energy, geoscience, infrastructure and society at HWU, and Sandy Kerr, associate professor of economics at HWU.

The UH ROICE team focused on reusing old offshore structures for clean energy instead of removing them after their productive life. The UH team created cost and project models for the Gulf of Mexico and will now work with Heriot-Watt University to apply to UK North Sea. UK North Sea has over 250 platforms and about 50,000 kilometers of pipelines. To see more of the projects click here.

“We wanted to bring in industry experts to not only assess the quality of the proposals but also to attract industry support of the projects,” assistant vice president for intellectual property and industrial engagement at UH Michael Harold said in a news release. “It’s a win-win —reviewers get a first look at cutting-edge ideas, and the projects have a chance to build industry interest for future development.”

The agreement will enable bp and NASA to collaborate on an array of technologies. Photo courtesy of bp

NASA, bp team up to share digital tech, expertise with new agreement

collaboration station

Houston-based energy company bp America is helping NASA boost U.S. space exploration efforts.

Under an agreement signed August 7, bp and NASA will share digital technology and technical expertise developed over several decades. The energy company says the deal will help advance energy production on earth, and will help advance exploration of the moon, Mars, and other planets.

For example, the agreement will enable bp and NASA to collaborate on an array of technologies. This includes digital models and simulations that let engineers and scientists visualize equipment in remote locations more than 7,000 feet underwater or millions of miles away on another planet.

The bp-NASA partnership evolved thanks to the Space Act Agreement. This agreement, part of the National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958, allows NASA to work with companies, universities, and other entities to propel space exploration.

In a news release, Ken Nguyen, principal technical program manager at bp, says: “bp has built a proud legacy of technological innovation as we deliver the energy the world needs today while investing in the energy system of tomorrow. As NASA pursues a sustained presence on the moon and Mars, we see a unique opportunity for bp and NASA to work collaboratively on the forefront of digital technology that will cultivate further innovation in energy and space.”

Initially, bp and NASA will focus on developing standards, and expanding the capabilities of visualization and simulation models. Subsequent phases might include:

  • Exchanging practices surrounding safety, communication, artificial intelligence, and other aspects of remote operations.
  • Collaborating on renewable energy, such as hydrogen, solar, regenerative fuel cells, and high-capacity batteries.

“Both bp and NASA are custodians of deep technical expertise, working in extreme environments — whether that’s at the bottom of the ocean or on the moon,” says Giovanni Cristofoli, senior vice president of bp Solutions. “Sharing what we know with each other will help us solve complex engineering problems faster, meaning we can focus on keeping energy flowing safely and delivering higher margins with lower emissions.”

This won’t be the first time bp and NASA have teamed up. Offshore workers from bp have undergone underwater escape training at NASA's Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory, the astronaut training pool near Johnson Space Center. In addition, NASA has used bp’s Castrol lubricants for more than 60 years.

With the projected uptick of new hydrogen production projects, an expert explores hydrogen fire protection, reflects on the measures and standards established to mitigate risks, and more. Photo courtesy

Expert weighs in on fire protection standards in hydrogen industry growth

guest column

As First State Hydrogen continues to advance its groundbreaking clean hydrogen production facility in the U.S., the spotlight intensifies as hydrogen becomes an increasingly key player in the energy transition.

With the projected uptick of new hydrogen production and handling projects, let's explore hydrogen fire protection, reflect on the measures and standards established to mitigate risks, and ensure that the hydrogen economy thrives.

The challenges of hydrogen fire protection

As the hydrogen industry experiences a boom, the issue of fire protection emerges as a critical concern. It's important to note that hydrogen fires can pose a significantly higher risk than traditional fuel fires, burning hotter and more rapidly due to their higher outflow rates. The diverse range of storage and transport options, from cryogenic liquids to high-pressure cylinders, further complicates safety measures. This underscores the industry's urgent need to prioritize risk mitigation for common hydrogen applications, such as high-pressure cylinders used in fuel-cell vehicles and data centers, to ensure safety as this energy source scales up.

Hydrogen jet fire test results

The author's company, a global leader in paint and coatings, recently tested an industry leading, flexible epoxy intumescent passive fire protection (PFP) coating to evaluate the material response against high pressure hydrogen jet fires to determine if current ISO jet fire standards are adequate for the challenges hydrogen poses. Collaborating with the United Kingdom's Health and Safety Authority, they conducted hydrogen jet fire tests at a specialized facility. The team replicated conditions of high-pressure hydrogen leaks and their effects on steel and protective coatings. The initial tests revealed unprotected steel reaching critical temperatures rapidly under hydrogen fires. The steel coated with advanced PFP coatings proved highly effective. The PFP coatings help keep steel well below critical temperatures throughout the exposure, indicating their potential to protect against structural failures during hydrogen fires.

These initial tests can contribute to setting standards for hydrogen fire protection. The results offer safety experts critical data for better protecting industrial environments against high-pressure hydrogen jet fires.

A call for a fire protection standard

The hydrogen industry currently relies on oil and gas regulations for specialized fire protection. While safety experts actively debate whether these standards can be adapted or whether entirely new criteria are necessary, industry collaboration remains key. Paint and coating companies, international standard organizations, safety groups, and energy regulators are all actively involved in assessing the adaptability of existing standards for hydrogen fires. The initial tests show promising results, suggesting that current oil and gas fire protection measures might be adapted for hydrogen fire protection, potentially leading to standards for the growing hydrogen industry.

Developing fire protection standards for the hydrogen industry remains a collective industry responsibility. Safety engineers, industry specialists, non-government officials (NGO), and policymakers must work together to ensure the hydrogen industry advances safely and responsibly. The paint and coatings industry, in particular, will play a crucial role in creating these standards. Leveraging their expertise in protective coatings, they can meet hydrogen's unique needs, from anti-corrosion to chemical resistance and passive fire protection.

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Stuart Bradbury is the PPG business development manager of Fire Protection, Protective and Marine Coatings.

Prabhdeep Singh Sekhon, CEO of Gold H2, joins the Houston Innovators Podcast. Photo courtesy of Gold H2

Newly named CEO to lead Houston gold hydrogen biotech co. into high-growth phase

bugging out

Using microbes to sustainably unlock low-cost hydrogen sounds like the work of science fiction, but one Houston company is doing just that.

Gold H2, a spin-off company from Cemvita, has bioengineered subsurface microbes to use in wells to consume carbon and generate clean hydrogen. The technology was piloted two years ago by Cemvita, and now, as its own company with a new CEO, it's safe to say Gold H2's on its way.

"First of all, that was groundbreaking," Prabhdeep Singh Sekhon, CEO of Gold H2, says of the 2022 pilot in the Permian Basin, "to be able to use bugs to produce hydrogen within a couple of days."

"2024 is supposed to be the year where Gold H2 takes off," Sekhon, who joined the company in April, tells the Houston Innovators Podcast. "It was one of those opportunities that I couldn't turn down. I had been following the company. I thought, 'here is this innovative tech that's on the verge of providing a ground-breaking solution to the energy transition — what better time to join the team.'"

Sekhon shares on the show how his previous roles at NextEra Energy Resources and Hess have prepared him for Gold H2. Specifically, as a leader on NextEra’s strategy and business development team, he says he was tasked with figuring out what the energy industry looks like in the next five, 10, and 20 years.

"Green hydrogen was a huge buzz, but one of the things I realized when I started looking at green hydrogen was that it's very expensive," Sekhon says. "I wanted to look at alternatives."

This journey led him to what Cemvita was doing with gold hydrogen, Sekhon says, explaining that the ability to use biotechnology to provide a new revenue stream from the mostly used up wells struck him as something with major potential.

"The idea of repurposing existing oil and gas assets to become hydrogen assets, leveraging current infrastructure to drive down overall deliver costs — to me I thought, 'wow, if they can make this works, that's brilliant,'" he says.

Now, as CEO, Sekhon gets to lead the company toward these goals, which include expanding internationally. He explains on the show that Gold H2 is interested in expanding to any part of the world where there's interest in implementing their biotech. In order to support the growth, Sekhon says they are looking to raise funding this year with plans for an additional round, if needed, in 2025.

"When we compare our tech to the rest of the stack, I think we blow the competition out of the water," Sekhon says, explaining that Gold H2's approach to gold hydrogen development is novel when you look at emerging technology in the space. "We're using a biological process — cheap bugs that eat oil for a living."

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

In a series of fireside chats, Houston energy leaders took the stage at OTC to discuss what their companies are doing in the energy transition space. Photo via LinkedIn

4 Houston energy execs sound off on future workforce, collaboration, and more at OTC

overheard

In addition to the massive exhibit floor, networking, and panels, the 2024 Offshore Technology Conference hosts thoughtful fireside chats with energy leaders throughout the ongoing conference taking place in Houston this week.

Four energy leaders from Houston took the stage to discuss what their companies are doing within the energy transition. Take a look at what topics each of the conversations tackled.

Chris Powers, vice president of CCUS at Chevron New Energies, on energy evolution and collaboration

Chris Powers introduced Chevron New Energies, an organization within Chevron that launched in 2021, to the crowd at OTC, describing the entity's focus points as CCUS, hydrogen, offsets and emerging technology, and renewable fuels — specifically things Chevron believes it has the competitive advantage.

One of the things Powers made clear in his fireside chat is that it's not going to be one, two, or even three technologies to significantly move the energy transition along, "it's going to take all the solutions to meet all the growing energy needs," he said.

And, he continued, this current energy transition the world is in isn't exactly new.

"We've been evolving our energy supply since the dawn of man," he said. "Our view is that the world has always been in an energy evolution."

"Hydrocarbons will continue to play a huge role in the years to come, and anyone who has a different view on that I think isn't being pragmatic," he continued.

Chevron has played a role in the clean energy market for decades, Powers said, pointing out Chevron Technology Ventures, which launched in the 1990s.

"No one can do this alone," he said, pointing specifically to the ongoing Bayou Bend joint venture that Chevron is working on with Equinor and TotalEnergies. "We have to bring together the right partners and the right skill sets."

Celine Gerson, group director, Americas, and president at Fugro USA, on the importance of data

Celine Gerson set the scene for Fugro, a geo data and surveying company that diversified its business beginning in 2015 to account for the energy transition. From traditional oil and gas to renewables, "it starts with the geo data," she said during her chat. She said big projects can't map out their construction without it, and then, when it comes to maintaining the equipment, the geo data is equally important.

Another message Gerson wanted to convey is that the skill sets from traditional offshore services translate to renewables. Fugro's employee base has evolved significantly over the past few years, and Gerson said that 50 percent of the workforce was hired over the past five years and 85 percent of the leadership has changed in the past seven.

Agility is what the industry needs, Celine Gerson said, adding that the "industry need to move fast and, in order to move fast, we need to look at things differently.

Attilio Pisoni, CTO of oilfield services and equipment at Baker Hughes, on the future workforce

In addition to the world making changes toward sustainability, the energy industry is seeing a workforce evolution as well, Attilio Pisoni said during his fireside chat, adding that inspiring a workforce is key to retention and encouraging innovation.

"We have a challenge in attracting young people," Pisoni said. "To be successful, you have to have a purpose."

That purpose? Combating climate change. And that, Pisoni said, needs to be able to be quantified. "As a society over all, we need to have a standard of measurement and accuracy in reporting," he said.

To future engineers, Pisoni emphasized the importance of learning outside your specific niche.

"Having seen where the world is now, whatever you study, have a concept and understanding of the system as a whole," he said.

Erik Oswald, vice president of advocacy and policy development at ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, on transferable skills from upstream

When he looks at renewables and new energy, Erik Oswald said he sees a significant similarity for the talent and skill sets required in upstream oil and gas.

"A lot of the same skills are coming into focus" within the energy transition," Oswald said, specifying CCS and upstream.

Even in light of the transferrable workforce, the industry faces needs to grow its workforce in a significant way to keep up with demand — and keeping in mind the younger generations coming onto the scene.

"We're talking about recreating the entire oil and gas industry," Oswald said on preparing the workforce for the future of the energy industry. "We have to do it, it's not an option."

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ExxonMobil invests over $200M in Texas advanced recycling sites

doubling down

ExxonMobil announced that it plans to invest more than $200 million to expand its advanced recycling operations at its Baytown and Beaumont sites that are expected to start in 2026. The new operations can help increase advanced recycling rates and divert plastic from landfills, according to ExxonMobil.

“We are solutions providers, and this multi-million-dollar investment will enhance our ability to convert hard-to-recycle plastics into raw materials that produce valuable new products,” says Karen McKee, president of ExxonMobil Product Solutions, in a news release.

The investment plans to add 350 million pounds per year of advanced recycling capacity at Baytown and Beaumont, which will bring ExxonMobil’s total capacity to 500 million pounds annually. The first Baytown facility started in 2022 and represents one of the largest advanced recycling facilities in North America by having processed more than 70 million pounds of plastic waste.

“At our Baytown site, we’ve proven advanced recycling works at scale, which gives us confidence in our ambition to provide the capacity to process more than 1 billion pounds of plastic per year around the world,” McKee said in a news release. “We’re proud of this proprietary technology and the role it can play in helping establish a circular economy for plastics and reducing plastic waste.”

Advanced recycling works by transforming plastic waste into raw materials that can be used to make products from fuels to lubricants to high-performance chemicals and plastics. Advanced recycling allows for a broader range of plastic waste that won't be mechanically recycled and may otherwise be buried or burned.

ExxonMobil will continue development of additional advanced recycling projects at manufacturing sites in North America, Europe and Asia with the goal of reaching 1 billion pounds per year of recycling capacity by 2027.

Houston-based Fervo Energy collects $255M in additional funding

cha-ching

A Houston company that's responding to rising energy demand by harnessing geothermal energy through its technology has again secured millions in funding. The deal brings Fervo's total funding secured this year to around $600 million.

Fervo Energy announced that it has raised $255 million in new funding and capital availability. The $135 million corporate equity round was led by Capricorn’s Technology Impact Fund II with participating investors including Breakthrough Energy Ventures, CalSTRS, Congruent Ventures, CPP Investments, DCVC, Devon Energy, Galvanize Climate Solutions, Liberty Mutual Investments, Mercuria, and Sabanci Climate Ventures.

The funding will go toward supporting Fervo's ongoing and future geothermal projects.

“The demand for 24/7 carbon-free energy is at an all-time high, and Fervo is one of the only companies building large projects that will come online before the end of the decade,” Fervo CEO and Co-Founder Tim Latimer says in a news release. “Investors recognize that Fervo’s ability to get to scale quickly is vital in an evolving market that is seeing unprecedented energy demand from AI and other sources.”

Additionally, Fervo secured a $120 million letter of credit and term loan facility from Mercuria, an independent energy and commodity group that previously invested in the company.

“In surveying power markets across the U.S. today, the need for next-generation geothermal is undeniable,” Brian Falik, group chief investment officer of Mercuria, adds. “We believe in Fervo not just because their EGS approach is cost-effective, commercially viable, and already being deployed at scale, but because they set ambitious targets and consistently deliver.”

In February, Fervo secured $244 million in a financing round led by Devon Energy, and in September, the company received a $100 million bridge loan for the first phase of its ongoing project in Utah. This project, known as Project Cape, represents a 100x growth opportunity for Fervo, as Latimer explained to InnovationMap earlier this year. As of now, Project Cape is fully permitted up to 2 GW and will begin generating electricity in 2026, per the company.

Other wins for Fervo this year include moving into its new headquarters in downtown Houston, securing a power purchase agreement with California, growing its partnership with Google, and being named amongst the year's top inventions by Time magazine.


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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.