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Port Houston receives $25 million grant for Bayport hydrogen project

Bayport HRS will be an innovative pipeline-based hydrogen refueling station. Photo via Getty Images

The Port of Houston Authority (Port Houston) received a $25 million grant from The Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration this month to go toward a hydrogen fueling station for heavy-duty trucks in Bayport, known as Bayport HRS.

The funds will also support a public-private collaboration between the port and industrial gas company Linde Inc. with additional partners GTI Energy, Argonne National Laboratory and Center for Houston’s Future, according to a statement.

“The Houston Ship Channel is the busiest waterway in the nation,” Charlie Jenkins, Port Houston CEO, said in the news release. “As one of the channel’s leading advocates, Port Houston is committed to fostering sustainability, resilience, collaboration, and quality of life for the community and nation we serve.”

Bayport HRS will be an innovative pipeline-based hydrogen refueling station (HRS), which will be able to offer high fueling throughput and be publicly accessible. Linde will design, construct, own and operate the new facility.

“Partnering with Linde, one of the largest hydrogen producers in the world and owner of a major pipeline complex that serves the Houston region, is in line with the Port’s strategy of engaging the Houston Ship Channel industry on projects that benefit the community, promote sustainability, decarbonization, and clean transportation,” Rich Byrnes, Port Houston chief infrastructure officer, said in the news release.

Bayport HRS supports the Port’s Sustainability Action Plan and its net-zero emissions goal by 2050. The project will also align with national strategies for clean hydrogen and transportation decarbonization.

Another goal of the collaboration is to support the U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization, the National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy, and U.S. National Clean H2 Strategy and Roadmap.

In 2024, Port Houston secured nearly $57M in grant funding in sustainability efforts.

"The Houston/Gulf Coast's regional clean hydrogen economy continues to gain momentum, including with announcements such as this,” Brett Perlman, managing director at the Center for Houston's Future, said in the news release. "We are excited to be part of this important work to build out a clean hydrogen transportation network. This is also another great example of collaboration among business, government and community to get things done."

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Cemvita aims to capitalize on Brazil’s regulatory framework around biodiesel blending and Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Photo via cemvita.com

Innovative Houston clean hydrogen company expands to Brazil

on the move

Houston biotech company Cemvita has expanded into Brazil. The company officially established a new subsidiary in the country under the same name.

According to an announcement made earlier this month, the expansion aims to capitalize on Brazil’s progressive regulatory framework, including Brazil’s Fuel of the Future Law, which was enacted in 2024. The company said the expansion also aims to coincide with the 2025 COP30, the UN’s climate change conference, which will be hosted in Brazil in November.

Cemvita utilizes synthetic biology to transform carbon emissions into valuable bio-based chemicals.

“For decades Brazil has pioneered the bioeconomy, and now the time has come to create the future of the circular bioeconomy,” Moji Karimi, CEO of Cemvita, said in a news release. “Our vision is to combine the innovation Cemvita is known for with Brazil’s expertise and resources to create an ecosystem where waste becomes opportunity and sustainability drives growth. By joining forces with Brazilian partners, Cemvita aims to build on Brazil’s storied history in the bioeconomy while laying the groundwork for a circular and sustainable future.”

The Fuel of the Future Law mandates an increase in the biodiesel content of diesel fuel, starting from 15 percent in March and increasing to 20 percent by 2030. It also requires the adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and for domestic flights to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1 percent starting in 2027, growing to 10 percent reduction by 2037.

Cemvita agreed to a 20-year contract that specified it would supply up to 50 million gallons of SAF annually to United Airlines in 2023.

"This is all made possible by our innovative technology, which transforms carbon waste into value,” Marcio Da Silva, VP of Innovation, said in a news release. “Unlike traditional methods, it requires neither a large land footprint nor clean freshwater, ensuring minimal environmental impact. At the same time, it produces high-value green chemicals—such as sustainable oils and biofuels—without competing with the critical resources needed for food production."

In 2024, Cemvita became capable of generating 500 barrels per day of sustainable oil from carbon waste at its first commercial plant. As a result, Cemvita quadrupled output at its Houston plant. The company had originally planned to reach this milestone in 2029.

The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

guest column

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

  • "Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
  • "The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
  • "Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

  • EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
  • EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
  • In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

------------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

The University of Houston and Heriot-Watt University in Scotland have secured funding for six energy projects. Photo via Getty Images

Researchers from Houston, Scotland receive seed grants to power collaborative energy solutions, innovations

transatlantic collaboration

The University of Houston and Scotland’s Heriot-Watt University have been awarded seed grants to six energy projects, which is part of an innovative transatlantic research collaboration.

Researchers from both universities will take on projects that will concentrate on innovations that range from advanced hydrogen sensing technology to converting waste into sustainable products.

This will mark the first round of awards under the “UH2HWU” seed grant program. The program was created following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between both institutions in 2024. The universities will “seek to drive global progress in energy research, education, and innovation, with a particular focus on hydrogen as a key element in the shift toward cleaner energy,” according to a news release.

“This partnership is rooted in a shared commitment to advancing research that supports a just energy transition,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at UH, says in a news release. “Hydrogen, and in particular low carbon hydrogen, is essential to achieving sustainable energy solutions.”

The UH2HWU program provided $20,000 in seed funding to each of the projects. The program will help with the goal of helping researchers secure additional funding from private sources, companies, and government with a total of 11 proposals being submitted, and a panel of industry experts reviewing them.

One of the winning projects was titled “A joint research project on the feasibility of Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Clean Energy in the North Sea aka ROICE North Sea,” and was led by Ram Seetharam, ROICE Program executive director at UH, Edward Owens, professor of energy, geoscience, infrastructure and society at HWU, and Sandy Kerr, associate professor of economics at HWU.

The UH ROICE team focused on reusing old offshore structures for clean energy instead of removing them after their productive life. The UH team created cost and project models for the Gulf of Mexico and will now work with Heriot-Watt University to apply to UK North Sea. UK North Sea has over 250 platforms and about 50,000 kilometers of pipelines. To see more of the projects click here.

“We wanted to bring in industry experts to not only assess the quality of the proposals but also to attract industry support of the projects,” assistant vice president for intellectual property and industrial engagement at UH Michael Harold said in a news release. “It’s a win-win —reviewers get a first look at cutting-edge ideas, and the projects have a chance to build industry interest for future development.”

The agreement will enable bp and NASA to collaborate on an array of technologies. Photo courtesy of bp

NASA, bp team up to share digital tech, expertise with new agreement

collaboration station

Houston-based energy company bp America is helping NASA boost U.S. space exploration efforts.

Under an agreement signed August 7, bp and NASA will share digital technology and technical expertise developed over several decades. The energy company says the deal will help advance energy production on earth, and will help advance exploration of the moon, Mars, and other planets.

For example, the agreement will enable bp and NASA to collaborate on an array of technologies. This includes digital models and simulations that let engineers and scientists visualize equipment in remote locations more than 7,000 feet underwater or millions of miles away on another planet.

The bp-NASA partnership evolved thanks to the Space Act Agreement. This agreement, part of the National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958, allows NASA to work with companies, universities, and other entities to propel space exploration.

In a news release, Ken Nguyen, principal technical program manager at bp, says: “bp has built a proud legacy of technological innovation as we deliver the energy the world needs today while investing in the energy system of tomorrow. As NASA pursues a sustained presence on the moon and Mars, we see a unique opportunity for bp and NASA to work collaboratively on the forefront of digital technology that will cultivate further innovation in energy and space.”

Initially, bp and NASA will focus on developing standards, and expanding the capabilities of visualization and simulation models. Subsequent phases might include:

  • Exchanging practices surrounding safety, communication, artificial intelligence, and other aspects of remote operations.
  • Collaborating on renewable energy, such as hydrogen, solar, regenerative fuel cells, and high-capacity batteries.

“Both bp and NASA are custodians of deep technical expertise, working in extreme environments — whether that’s at the bottom of the ocean or on the moon,” says Giovanni Cristofoli, senior vice president of bp Solutions. “Sharing what we know with each other will help us solve complex engineering problems faster, meaning we can focus on keeping energy flowing safely and delivering higher margins with lower emissions.”

This won’t be the first time bp and NASA have teamed up. Offshore workers from bp have undergone underwater escape training at NASA's Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory, the astronaut training pool near Johnson Space Center. In addition, NASA has used bp’s Castrol lubricants for more than 60 years.

With the projected uptick of new hydrogen production projects, an expert explores hydrogen fire protection, reflects on the measures and standards established to mitigate risks, and more. Photo courtesy

Expert weighs in on fire protection standards in hydrogen industry growth

guest column

As First State Hydrogen continues to advance its groundbreaking clean hydrogen production facility in the U.S., the spotlight intensifies as hydrogen becomes an increasingly key player in the energy transition.

With the projected uptick of new hydrogen production and handling projects, let's explore hydrogen fire protection, reflect on the measures and standards established to mitigate risks, and ensure that the hydrogen economy thrives.

The challenges of hydrogen fire protection

As the hydrogen industry experiences a boom, the issue of fire protection emerges as a critical concern. It's important to note that hydrogen fires can pose a significantly higher risk than traditional fuel fires, burning hotter and more rapidly due to their higher outflow rates. The diverse range of storage and transport options, from cryogenic liquids to high-pressure cylinders, further complicates safety measures. This underscores the industry's urgent need to prioritize risk mitigation for common hydrogen applications, such as high-pressure cylinders used in fuel-cell vehicles and data centers, to ensure safety as this energy source scales up.

Hydrogen jet fire test results

The author's company, a global leader in paint and coatings, recently tested an industry leading, flexible epoxy intumescent passive fire protection (PFP) coating to evaluate the material response against high pressure hydrogen jet fires to determine if current ISO jet fire standards are adequate for the challenges hydrogen poses. Collaborating with the United Kingdom's Health and Safety Authority, they conducted hydrogen jet fire tests at a specialized facility. The team replicated conditions of high-pressure hydrogen leaks and their effects on steel and protective coatings. The initial tests revealed unprotected steel reaching critical temperatures rapidly under hydrogen fires. The steel coated with advanced PFP coatings proved highly effective. The PFP coatings help keep steel well below critical temperatures throughout the exposure, indicating their potential to protect against structural failures during hydrogen fires.

These initial tests can contribute to setting standards for hydrogen fire protection. The results offer safety experts critical data for better protecting industrial environments against high-pressure hydrogen jet fires.

A call for a fire protection standard

The hydrogen industry currently relies on oil and gas regulations for specialized fire protection. While safety experts actively debate whether these standards can be adapted or whether entirely new criteria are necessary, industry collaboration remains key. Paint and coating companies, international standard organizations, safety groups, and energy regulators are all actively involved in assessing the adaptability of existing standards for hydrogen fires. The initial tests show promising results, suggesting that current oil and gas fire protection measures might be adapted for hydrogen fire protection, potentially leading to standards for the growing hydrogen industry.

Developing fire protection standards for the hydrogen industry remains a collective industry responsibility. Safety engineers, industry specialists, non-government officials (NGO), and policymakers must work together to ensure the hydrogen industry advances safely and responsibly. The paint and coatings industry, in particular, will play a crucial role in creating these standards. Leveraging their expertise in protective coatings, they can meet hydrogen's unique needs, from anti-corrosion to chemical resistance and passive fire protection.

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Stuart Bradbury is the PPG business development manager of Fire Protection, Protective and Marine Coatings.

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Houston companies scoop up $31M in funds from DOE, EPA methane emissions program

fresh funds

The U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced the selection of seven projects from Houston companies to receive funding through the Methane Emissions Reduction Program.

The projects are among 43 others nationwide, including 12 from Texas, that reduce, monitor, measure, and quantify methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. The DOE and EPA awarded $850 million in total through the program.

The Houston companies picked up $31.7 million in federal funding through the program in addition to more than $9.5 million in non-federal dollars.

“I’m excited about the opportunities these will create internally but even more so the creation of jobs and training opportunities for the communities in which we work,” Scott McCurdy, Encino Environmental Services CEO, said in a news release. His company received awards for two projects.

“These projects will allow us to further support and strengthen the U.S. Energy industry’s ability to deliver clean, reliable, and affordable energy globally,” he added.

The Houston-area awards included:

DaphneTech USA LLC

Total funding: $5.8 million (approximately $4.5 million in federal, $1.3 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Daphne and Williams Methane Slip Abatement Plasma-Catalyst Scale-Up project. Daphne will study how its SlipPure technology, a novel exhaust gas cleaning system that abates methane and exhaust gas pollution from natural gas-fueled engines, can be economically viable across multiple engine types and operating conditions.

Baker Hughes Energy Transition LLC 

Total funding: $7.47 million (approximately $6 million in federal, $1.5 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Advancing Low Cost CH4 Emissions Reduction from Flares through Large Scale Deployment of Retrofittable and Adaptive Technology project. The project aims to develop a scalable, integrated methane emissions reduction system for flares based on optical gas imaging and estimation algorithms.

Encino Environmental Services

Total funding: $15.17 million (approximately $11 million in federal, $4.17 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for two projects. The Advanced Methane Reduction System: Integrating Infrared and Visual Imaging to Assess Net Heating Value at the Combustion Zone and Determine Combustion Efficiency to Enhance Flaring Performance project aims to develop and deploy an advanced continuous emissions monitoring system. It’s Advancing Methane Emissions Reduction through Innovative Technology project will develop and deploy a technology using sensors and composite materials to address emissions originating in storage tanks.

Envana Software Solutions

Total funding: $5.26 million (approximately $4.2 million in federal, $1 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Leak Detection and Reduction Software to Identify Methane Emissions and Trigger Mitigation at Oil and Gas Production Facilities Based on SCADA Data project. It aims to improve its Recon software for monitoring methane emissions and develop partnerships with local universities and organizations.

Capwell Services Inc.

Total funding: $4.19 million (approximately $3.3 million in federal, $837,000 in non-federal)

The award was granted for its Methane Emissions Abatement Technology for Low-Flow and Intermittent Emission Sources project. It aims to to deploy and field-test a methane abatement unit and improve air quality and health outcomes for communities near production facilities and establish field technician internships for local residents.

Blue Sky Measurements 

Total funding: $3.41 million (approximately $2.7 million in federal, $683,000 in non-federal)

The award was granted for its Field Validation of Novel Fixed Position Optical Sensor for Fugitive Methane Emission Detection Quantification and Location with Real-Time Notification for Rapid Mitigation project. It aims to field test an optical sensing technology at six well sites in the Permian Basin.

Southern Methodist University, The University of Texas at Austin, Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station and Hyliion Inc. were other Texas-based organizations to earn awards.

See the full list of projects here.

Texas university's 'WaterHub' will dramatically reduce water usage by 40%

Sustainable Move

A major advancement in sustainability is coming to one Texas university. A new UT WaterHub at the University of Texas at Austin will be the largest facility of its kind in the U.S. and will transform how the university manages its water resources.

It's designed to work with natural processes instead of against them for water savings of an estimated 40 percent. It's slated for completion in late 2027.

The university has had an active water recovery program since the 1980s. Still, water is becoming an increasing concern in Austin. According to Texas Living Waters, a coalition of conservation groups, Texas loses enough water annually to fill Lady Bird Lake roughly 89 times over.

As Austin continues to expand and face water shortages, the region's water supply faces increased pressure. The UT WaterHub plans to address this challenge by recycling water for campus energy operations, helping preserve water resources for both the university and local communities.

The 9,600-square-foot water treatment facility will use an innovative filtration approach. To reduce reliance on expensive machinery and chemicals, the system uses plants to naturally filter water and gravity to pull it in the direction it needs to go. Used water will be gathered from a new collection point near the Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium and transported to the WaterHub, located in the heart of the engineering district. The facility's design includes a greenhouse viewable to the public, serving as an interactive learning space.

Beyond water conservation, the facility is designed to protect the university against extreme weather events like winter storms. This new initiative will create a reliable backup water supply while decreasing university water usage, and will even reduce wastewater sent to the city by up to 70 percent.

H2O Innovation, UT’s collaborator in this project, specializes in water solutions, helping organizations manage their water efficiently.

"By combining cutting-edge technology with our innovative financing approach, we’re making it easier for organizations to adopt sustainable water practices that benefit both their bottom line and the environment, paving a step forward in water positivity,” said H2O Innovation president and CEO Frédéric Dugré in a press release.

The university expects significant cost savings with this project, since it won't have to spend as much on buying water from the city or paying fees to dispose of used water. Over the next several years, this could add up to millions of dollars.

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A version of this story originally appeared on our sister site, CultureMap Austin.

Report: Texas solar power, battery storage helped stabilize grid in summer 2024, but challenges remain

by the numbers

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that solar power and battery storage capacity helped stabilize Texas’ electric grid last summer.

Between June 1 and Aug. 31, solar power met nearly 25 percent of midday electricity demand within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid. Rising solar and battery output in ERCOT assisted Texans during a summer of triple-digit heat and record load demands, but the report fears that the state’s power load will be “pushed to its limits” soon.

The report examined how the grid performed during more demanding hours. At peak times, between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. in the summer of 2024, solar output averaged nearly 17,000 megawatts compared with 12,000 megawatts during those hours in the previous year. Between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m., discharge from battery facilities averaged 714 megawatts in 2024 after averaging 238 megawatts for those hours in 2023. Solar and battery output have continued to grow since then, according to the report.

“Batteries made a meaningful contribution to what those shoulder periods look like and how much scarcity we get into during these peak events,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said at a board of directors conference call.

Increases in capacity from solar and battery-storage power in 2024 also eclipsed those of 2023. In 2023 ECOT added 4,570 megawatts of solar, compared to adding nearly 9,700 megawatts in 2024. Growth in battery storage capacity also increased from about 1,500 megawatts added in 2023 to more than 4,000 megawatts added in 2024. Natural gas capacity also saw increases while wind capacity dropped by about 50 percent.

Texas’ installation of utility-scale solar surpassed California’s in the spring of last year, and jumped from 1,900 megawatts in 2019 to over 20,000 megawatts in 2024 with solar meeting about 50 percent of Texas' peak power demand during some days.

While the numbers are encouraging, the report states that there could be future challenges, as more generating capacity will be required due to data center construction and broader electrification trends. The development of generating more capacity will rely on multiple factors like price signals and market conditions that invite more baseload and dispatchable generating capacity, which includes longer-duration batteries, and investment in power purchase agreements and other power arrangements by large-scale consumers, according to the report.

Additionally, peak demand during winter freezes presents challenges not seen in the summer. For example, in colder months, peak electricity demand often occurs in the early morning before solar energy is available, and it predicts that current battery storage may be insufficient to meet the demand. The analysis indicated a 50% chance of rolling outages during a cold snap similar to December 2022 and an 80% chance if conditions mirror the February 2021 deep freeze at the grid’s current state.

The report also claimed that ERCOT’s energy-only market design and new incentive structures, such as the Texas Energy Fund, do not appear to be enough to meet the predicted future magnitude and speed of load growth.

Read the full report here.

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