Houston energy expert discusses why hydrogen still has a future
Guets Column
Not long ago, hydrogen was hailed as the next big thing in clean energy. Investors poured in, and countries from Japan to Germany built ambitious hydrogen strategies. It wasn’t a new discovery; hydrogen has been used for over a century in refineries and fertilizers, but it suddenly found itself reborn as the world began working toward decarbonization.
When hydrogen burns, the only byproduct is water. Green hydrogen, produced with renewable power, could replace fossil fuels in everything from trucks to ships to steel mills. But the momentum has cooled. Costs remain stubbornly high, several projects have been delayed or canceled, and policy support has wavered. In the U.S., a change in administration has created uncertainty. In Europe, some governments are slowing funding or revising hydrogen mandates. Even the International Maritime Organization (IMO) recently postponed a key vote on fuel-carbon standards.
Yet as Mike Graff , former Chairman and CEO of American Air Liquide, said in an Energy Forum episode with Ed Emmett at Rice University’s Baker Institute, “The world is always looking to make sure that energy is first available, it’s affordable, and then it’s clean. And I see hydrogen over time evolving in that manner.” He also noted that “companies have produced hydrogen and utilized hydrogen for over 100 years, and they’ve done that very safely… I think we can continue that moving forward.”
China has doubled down on hydrogen as part of its industrial strategy, building massive electrolyzer manufacturing capacity and funding dozens of pilot projects across transportation and heavy industry. Japan and South Korea also stand out as examples of how sustained policy support can drive hydrogen progress.
Where Hydrogen Fits Today
To understand hydrogen’s role now, it helps to remember what it actually does. About 76 percent of global hydrogen is produced from natural gas and used in refineries, fertilizer plants, and chemical production. This so-called “gray hydrogen” is essential but carbon-intensive.
What’s new is the rise of low-carbon hydrogen, “blue” hydrogen made from natural gas with carbon capture, and “green” hydrogen produced by splitting water with renewable electricity. These methods are expensive, but they’re growing. According to the International Energy Agency, global low-emissions hydrogen output rose about 10 percent in 2024.
Hydrogen is also expanding beyond industry. As Graff explained, it already powers thousands of forklifts in warehouses across the U.S. and is beginning to appear in commercial trucking, locomotives, and even aviation prototypes. “You can now drive 600 to 800 miles on a hydrogen fuel-cell truck,” he noted, “and refuel in 30 minutes, just like you would refill for diesel.”
The Cost Challenge and a Gulf Coast Opportunity
So why the slowdown? One word: economics.
Even with generous tax credits, green hydrogen can cost two to three times more than conventional fuels. Electrolyzers are still expensive, though costs are falling as Chinese suppliers introduce low-cost alternatives.
Infrastructure is another hurdle. Pipelines, storage, and fueling networks need to be built from scratch.
But those same challenges point to opportunity, especially along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The region already has one of the world’s largest hydrogen pipeline systems and a well-established energy infrastructure. Texas, in particular, has a head start. It already hosts nearly 1,000 miles of hydrogen pipelines, about 64 percent of the U.S. total, and some of the world’s largest hydrogen storage sites at Moss Bluff, Spindletop, and Clemens. Out of 140 hydrogen plants operating nationwide, 43 are in Texas, supported by extensive refining and natural gas infrastructure. This combination of assets gives the Gulf Coast an unmatched foundation to scale low-carbon hydrogen and integrate production, storage, and end use across industries.
As Ken Medlock , Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, explains in his report: Developing a Robust Hydrogen Market in Texas, Texas has all the critical elements needed to lead in a low-carbon hydrogen economy, including existing infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and proximity to industrial demand centers. That combination gives it a distinct advantage in scaling up hydrogen production and use.
Governments around the world are showing renewed confidence in hydrogen. The European Commission awarded nearly €3 billion to 13 major projects, while Japan and South Korea continue expanding fueling networks. China is leading one of the most ambitious buildouts, with more than 50 planned hydrogen projects and a rapidly growing fleet of fuel-cell vehicles. Despite recent setbacks, global investment has surpassed $100 billion, and projects in places such as Chile, where strong renewables and low-cost Chinese equipment help make projects feasible, are moving toward final investment decisions.
What Comes Next
Hydrogen’s future won’t depend on replacing every fuel, but on filling the gaps where batteries and biofuels fall short.
Transportation: This is where momentum is strongest today. Batteries dominate cars, but hydrogen fuel cells excel in heavy trucks, ships, and planes. As Graff noted, “You can design a commercial vehicle with the same utility as diesel but powered by hydrogen.” Airbus and Boeing are testing hydrogen propulsion concepts, and several ports are experimenting with hydrogen bunkering for cargo ships.
Industry: Steel, cement, and chemicals account for a quarter of global emissions. Hydrogen-based direct-reduced-iron (DRI) steelmaking is being piloted in Europe and Asia and could transform how these materials are produced at scale.
Storage: Hydrogen can store energy for days or weeks, serving as backup for renewables like wind and solar. But storage remains very costly and may only prove viable for the “last mile” of greenhouse gas reduction or grid stability.
These uses may sound niche, but that’s how technologies scale. They start small, gain an economic foothold, and expand as costs decline.
Conclusion
Hydrogen's early, perhaps irrational, exuberance may have cooled, but amidst the rubble of cancelled projects are the beginnings of an industry that could play a vital niche role on the journey towards a lower carbon intensity energy future. As costs fall and infrastructure around the world expands, hydrogen's role will expand into the nooks and crannies of the energy industry.
It won't replace every fuel, but it doesn't have to. Success will come from steady, project-by-project progress.
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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.
