Reshaping the Texas grid: The impact of EVs, AI, renewables, and extreme weather

guest column

While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

Did you catch those images of idle generators that CenterPoint had on standby during Hurricane Beryl? With over 2 million people in the Houston area left in the dark, many were wondering, "if the generators are ready, why didn’t they get used?" It seems like power outages are becoming just as common as the severe storms themselves.

But as Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES) explains, it's not a simple fix. The outages during Hurricane Beryl were different from what we saw during Winter Storm Uri. This time, with so many poles and wires down, those generators couldn’t be put to use. It’s a reminder that each storm brings its own set of challenges, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution when it comes to keeping the lights on. While extreme weather is one of the leading threats to our electric grid, it's certainly not the only one adding strain on our power infrastructure.

The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicles (EVs) is transforming the way we live, work, and move. Beneath the surface of these technological marvels lies a challenge that could define the future of our energy infrastructure: they all depend on our electrical grid. As AI-powered data centers and a growing fleet of EVs demand more power than ever before, our grid—already under pressure from extreme weather events and an increasing reliance on renewable energy—faces a critical test. The question goes beyond whether our grid can keep up, but rather focuses on how we can ensure it evolves to support the innovations of tomorrow without compromising reliability today. The intersection of these emerging technologies with our aging energy infrastructure poses a dilemma that policymakers, industry leaders, and consumers must address.

Julie Cohn, Nonresident Fellow at the Center for Energy Studies at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, presents several key findings and recommendations to address concerns about the reliability of the Texas energy grid in her Energy Insight. She suggests there’s at least six developments unfolding that will affect the reliability of the Texas Interconnected System, operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the regional distribution networks operated by regulated utilities.

Let’s dig deeper into some of these issues:

AI

AI requires substantial computational power, particularly in data centers that house servers processing vast amounts of data. These data centers consume large amounts of electricity, putting additional strain on the grid.

According to McKinsey & Company, a single hyperscale data center can consume as much electricity as 80,000 homes combined. In 2022, data centers consumed about 200 terawatt-hours (TWh), close to 4 percent, of the total electricity used in the United States and approximately 460 TWh globally. That’s nearly the consumption of the entire State of Texas, which consumed approximately 475.4 TWh of electricity in the same year. However, this percentage is expected to increase significantly as demand for data processing and storage continues to grow. In 2026, data centers are expected to account for 6 percent, almost 260 TWh, of total electricity demand in the U.S.

EVs

According to the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, approximately 170,000 EVs have been registered across the state of Texas as of 2023, with Texas receiving $408 million in funding to expand its EV charging network. As Cohn suggests, a central question remains: Where will these emerging economic drivers for Texas, such as EVs and AI, obtain their electric power?

EVs draw power from the grid every time they’re plugged in to charge. This may come as a shock to some, but “the thing that’s recharging EV batteries in ERCOT right now, is natural gas,” says Medlock. And as McKinsey & Company explains, the impact of switching to EVs on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will largely depend on how much GHG is produced by the electricity used to charge them. This adds a layer of complexity as regulators look to decarbonize the power sector.

Depending on the charger, a single EV fast charger can pull anywhere from 50 kW to 350 kW of electricity per hour. Now, factor in the constant energy drain from data centers, our growing population using power for homes and businesses, and then account for the sudden impact of severe environmental events—which have increased in frequency and intensity—and it’s clear: Houston… we have a problem.

The Weather Wildcard

Texas is gearing up for its 2025 legislative session on January 14. The state's electricity grid once again stands at the forefront of political discussions. The question is not just whether our power will stay on during the next winter storm or scorching summer heatwave, but whether our approach to grid management is sustainable in the face of mounting challenges. The events of recent years, from Winter Storm Uri to unprecedented heatwaves, have exposed significant vulnerabilities in the Texas electricity grid, and while legislative measures have been taken, they have been largely patchwork solutions.

Winter Storm Uri in 2021 was a wake-up call, but it wasn’t the first or last extreme weather event to test the Texas grid. With deep freezes, scorching summers, and unpredictable storms becoming the norm rather than the exception, it is clear that the grid’s current state is not capable of withstanding these extremes. The measures passed in 2021 and 2023 were steps in the right direction, but they were reactive, not proactive. They focused on strengthening the grid against cold weather, yet extreme heat, a more consistent challenge in Texas, remains a less-addressed threat. The upcoming legislative session must prioritize comprehensive climate resilience strategies that go beyond cold weather prep.

“The planners for the Texas grid have important questions to address regarding anticipated weather extremes: Will there be enough energy? Will power be available when and where it is needed? Is the state prepared for extreme weather events? Are regional distribution utilities prepared for extreme weather events? Texas is not alone in facing these challenges as other states have likewise experienced extremely hot and dry summers, wildfires, polar vortexes, and other weather conditions that have tested their regional power systems,” writes Cohn.

Renewable Energy and Transmission

Texas leads the nation in wind and solar capacity (Map: Energy, Environment, and Policy in the US), however the complexity lies in getting that energy from where it’s produced to where it’s needed. Transmission lines are feeling the pressure, and the grid is struggling to keep pace with the rapid expansion of renewables. In 2005, the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) initiative showed that state intervention could significantly accelerate grid expansion. With renewables continuing to grow, the big question now is whether the state will step up again, or risk allowing progress to stall due to the inadequacy of the infrastructure in place. The legislature has a choice to make: take the lead in this energy transition or face the consequences of not keeping up with the pace of change.

Conclusion

The electrical grid continues to face serious challenges, especially as demand is expected to rise. There is hope, however, as regulators are fully aware of the strain. While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

As Cohn puts it, “In the end, successful resolution of the various issues will carry significant benefits for existing Texas industrial, commercial, and residential consumers and have implications for the longer-term economic attractiveness of Texas. Suffice it to say, eyes will be, and should be, on the Texas legislature in the coming session.”

------------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on September 11, 2024.

From Your Site Articles

After recently divesting from wind and solar energy initiatives, Shell has plans to quadruple EV charging stations in the next several years. Photo via shell.com

Shell fuels energy transition with roll out of EV charging stations

coming soon

As it downshifts sales of fuel for traditional vehicles, energy giant Shell is stepping up its commitment to public charging stations for electric vehicles.

In a new report on energy transition, Shell lays out an aggressive plan for growing its public network of charging stations for electric vehicles (EVs). The company plans to boost the global number of public EV charging stations from about 54,000 today to around 70,000 by 2025 and about 200,000 by 2030.

The projected growth from today to 2030 would represent a 270 percent increase in the number of Shell-operated EV charging stations.

“We have a major competitive advantage in terms of locations, as our global network of service stations is one of the largest in the world,” Shell says in the report.

Shell’s global network of service stations is shrinking, though. In the report, the company reveals plans to close a total of 1,000 gas stations in 2024 and 2025. Today, more than 45,000 Shell-branded gas stations are located in over 90 countries.

Aside from Shell gas stations, the company’s Shell Recharge business unit operates public EV charging stations along streets, at grocery stores, and at other locations in 33 countries.

Shell, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston, is ramping up its EV charging network amid forecasts of slowing demand for oil and rising demand for EVs. Other than EV charging, Shell is focusing on biofuels and integrated power as components of its revamped product mix.

“Shell is well positioned to become a profitable leader in public charging for electric vehicles, meeting the growing demand from drivers who need to charge on the go,” the report says.

To accelerate its EV charging presence in the U.S., Shell in 2023 purchased Volta, a San Francisco-based operator of EV charging stations. Shell says it now operates one of the largest public EV charging networks in the U.S., with more than 3,000 charging points in 31 states and another 3,400 under development.

“The availability of charging points will be critical for the growth in electric vehicles,” the report says.

Last month, Shell divested from a solar energy subsidiary, before later announcing an exit from a wind energy joint venture.

"In-line with our Powering Progress strategy, Shell continues to hone our portfolio of renewable generation projects in key markets where we have an advantaged position," Glenn Wright, senior vice president at Shell Energy Americas, said in a news release at the time.

Ad Placement 300x100

Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

SLB unveils AI-powered tech to enhance drilling efficiency and reduce emissions

tech optimized

Houston energy technology company SLB introduced a new autonomous geosteering system called Neuro, which can reduce the carbon footprint of the drilling operations. Neuro can respond to complex subsurfaces to drill more efficiently with higher-performing wells.

Neuro, which is an AI-based platform,expands the technological foundation of SLB’s Neuro autonomous directional drilling, which drills wells to a specific target. Now, the Neuro autonomous geosteering incorporates high-fidelity downhole measurements that ensure certainty of well placement in the best part of the reservoir.

“Neuro autonomous geosteering is a remarkable industry-first achievement that is for drillers what the autonomous vehicle is for drivers,” Jesus Lamas, president of Well Construction at SLB, says in a news release. “Using advanced cloud and edge AI capabilities, the system automatically selects the best route for drilling the well based on high-fidelity downhole measurements, bringing the well trajectory in line with the real-world conditions of the reservoir.”

SLB deployed Neuro autonomous geosteering that drilled a 2,392-foot lateral section of an onshore well for Shaya Ecuador S.A. SLB's autonomous system completed 25 autonomous geosteering trajectory changes in a matter of seconds according to SLB. By remaining in the most productive layer of the reservoir, the well has become one of the best producers in Ecuador, according to SLB.

“By drilling more consistent and higher-producing wells, our customers can optimize their field development plan while reducing operational emissions from drilling over the lifetime of the asset,” Lamas adds.

Greentown Labs, Evonik launch accelerator to boost sustainability in personal care products

apply now

Greentown Labs and its corporate partner, Germany-based chemicals company Evonik, are calling for submissions to a new program geared at accelerating more sustainable personal care products.

The Greentown Go Make 2025 accelerator, which is based in both Greentown's Houston and Boston-area locations and open to companies from around the world, as launched applications now through January 23.

"Designed to accelerate startup-corporate partnerships to advance climatetech, this Greentown Go program is focused on increasing sustainability within the personal-care industry through the development, introduction, and commercialization of technologies that reduce products’ manufacturing-related emissions and end-of-life environmental impact," reads a news release from Greentown.

"More specifically, Go Make 2025 is interested in biodegradable polymers and sustainable specialty chemicals for personal care. Further details on the technology areas of interest can be found in the request for applications."

The selected companies will have access to Greentown's facilities and receive mentorship, networking opportunities, educational workshops, and structured programming. The startups will also have partnership opportunities with the program's corporate partner Evonik.

“The Greentown Go program represents an exciting opportunity for startups to showcase their groundbreaking solutions in sustainable chemistry,” Anil Saxena, vice president of RD&I at Evonik, says in the release. “At Evonik, innovation and sustainability are not just buzzwords; they are fundamental to our strategic growth. We are eager to identify and collaborate with companies that share our commitment to creating a more sustainable future.”

The global personal care market — which includes products across hygiene, cosmetics and beautification, cleaning, and grooming — represents 0.5 to 1.5 percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions, per Greentown's release. Evonik announced its sustainability-focused game plan in September, focusing on bio-based solutions, the energy transition, and the circular economy.

“The building blocks of the personal-care industry are ripe for climatetech innovation, and there’s no better partner for harnessing this opportunity than Evonik, a global leader in specialty chemicals,” adds Aisling Carlson, senior vice president of partnerships at Greentown. “Greentown Go has a strong track record of fostering meaningful startup-corporate partnerships, and we look forward to working with Evonik and a set of groundbreaking entrepreneurs in this program.”

Under 30: Houston innovators snag spots on Forbes list of top young energy professionals

A handful of Houstonians have been named to the Forbes 30 Under 30 Energy and Green Tech list for 2025.

Kip Daujotas is an investment associate at Aramco Ventures, a $7.5 billion venture capital arm of the world's largest energy company. Houston is the Americas headquarters for Saudi Aramco. Since its inception in 2012, Aramco Ventures has invested in more than 100 tech startups. Daujotas joined the team over two years ago after studying for an MBA at Yale University. He led Aramco’s first direct air capture (DAC) investment — in Los Alamos, New Mexico-based Spiritus.

Also representing the corporate side of the industry, Wenting Gao immigrated from Beijing to obtain an economics degree from Harvard University, then got a job at consulting giant McKinsey, where she recently became the firm’s youngest partner. Gao works on bringing sustainability strategies to energy and materials companies as well as investors. Her areas of expertise include battery materials, waste, biofuels, and low-carbon products.

Last but not least, Houston entrepreneur Rawand Rasheed is co-founder and CEO of Houston-based Helix Earth. He co-founded the startup after earning a doctoral degree from Rice University and co-inventing Helix’s core technology while at NASA, first as a graduate research fellow and then as an engineer. The core technology, a space capsule air filtration system, has been applied to retrofitting HVAC systems for commercial buildings.

Each year, Forbes 30 Under 30 recognizes 600 honorees in 20 categories. The 2025 honorees were selected from more than 10,000 nominees by Forbes staff and a panel of independent judges based on factors such as funding, revenue, social impact, scale, inventiveness, and potential.

Specifically, the Energy & Green Tech category recognizes young entrepreneurs driving innovation that’s aimed at creating a cleaner, greener future.

“Gen Z is one of the fastest-growing groups of entrepreneurs and creators, who are reshaping the way the world conducts business, and our Under 30 class of 2025 proves that you can never begin your career journey too early,” says Alexandra York, editor of Forbes Under 30. “With the expansion across AI, technology, social media, and other industries, the honorees on this year’s list are pushing the boundaries and building their brands beyond traditional scopes.”

View All Listings

ENERGYCAPITALHTX EMAILS ARE AWESOME