The 1-gigawatt site will be constructed at a cost of approximately $8 billion. Photo courtesy ECL

The Houston area will soon be home to what's being lauded as the first fully sustainable 1-gigawatt data center on a 600-acres site east of Houston.

Data center-as-a-service company ECL, headquartered in Mountain View, California, announced its plans to build the ECL TerraSite-TX1. Hardware and cloud service company Lambda will serve as its first tenant. Lambda and other AI leaders will get access to necessary space and power for the next wave zero emission innovations.

Phase 1 of TerraSite-TX1 will be complete by summer of 2025 with a cost of approximately $450 million. The 50 megawatt of data center capacity will be utilized by data center cloud and AI cloud operators. The 1-gigawatt site will be constructed at a cost of approximately $8 billion. The funding will come from ECL and financial partners.

ECL Terrasite-TX1 comes at a needed time for Texas with The Electric Reliability Council of Texas stating on June 12 that the state’s power grid needs will grow approximately double by 2030. This is due in part to the growth of data centers and AI. The ECL Terrasite-TX1 is built to help eliminate the stress on the state’s power grid and help facilitate “state-level economic development and growth of the AI industry,” according to a news release.

ECL houston data centerThe project will span over 600 acres east of Houston. Rendering courtesy ECL

ECL data centers are built to be modular, which allows for expansion in 1-megawatt increments. They are “ built to suit” and delivered in less than 12 months, which is shorter than the industry standard of 36 to 48.

“While others talk about delivering off-grid, hydrogen-powered data centers in five, ten, or 20 years, only ECL is giving the AI industry the space, power, and peace of mind they and their customers need, now,” Yuval Bachar, co-founder and CEO of ECL, says in a news release. “The level of innovation that we have introduced to the market is unprecedented and will serve not only us and our customers but the entire data center industry for decades to come.”

ECL’s ECL-MV1 is the world’s first off-grid, hydrogen-powered modular data center that operates 24/7 with zero emissions, less noise, and a negative water footprint that replenishes water to the community. ECL-MV1 offers a 10x increase in “energy efficiency with a power usage effectiveness of 1.05 and a 7-times improvement in data density per rack, which is ideal for AI high-density demand” according to the release.

“The data center technology committed to by ECL is truly transformative in the industry,” Lambda's Vice President for Data Center Infrastructure Ken Patchett adds. “We believe ECL’s technology could unlock a powerful and eco-conscious foundation for AI advancement. This new infrastructure could give researchers and developers essential computational resources while drastically reducing the environmental impact of AI operations.”

NanoTech is targeting new overseas markets for its energy efficiency products. Photo via Getty Images

Promising Houston startup expands energy efficiency product to Middle East, Singapore

big move

NanoTech Materials has announced a big expansion for its business.

The Houston company, which created a roof coating using nanotechnology that optimizes energy efficiency, has partnered with Terminal Subsea Solutions Marine Service SP to bring its products to the Gulf Cooperation Council and Singapore. TSSM will become a partner of Houston’s NanoTech Materials products, which will include the Cool Roof Coat, Vehicular Coat, and Insulative Coat for the GCC countries and Singapore.

NanoTech Materials technology that ranges from roof coatings on mid- to low-rise buildings to shipping container insulation to coating trucks and transportation vehicles will be utilized by TSSM in the partnership. NanoTech’s efforts are focused on heat mitigation that can reduce energy costs, enhance worker safety, and minimize business risks in the process.

“Businesses and communities within the GCC and Singapore feel the impact of extreme temperatures and longer Summers more acutely than any other region in the world,” Mike Francis, CEO of NanoTech Materials, says in a news release. “We have an opportunity to make a real impact here through reduced energy load, cooler and safer working conditions, and a reduced carbon emissions output from the hottest, driest place on earth. We are incredibly excited to be partnering with our colleagues at TSSM to bring this powerful technology to the region.”

One of the areas that will benefit from this collaboration is the Middle East. The GCC region is characterized by a desert climate, which has average annual temperature reaching 107.6°F and summer peaks climbing as high as 130°F. The effects of these extreme conditions can be dangerous for workers especially with strict labor laws mandating midday work bans under black flag conditions, which can result in productivity losses as well.

NanoTech’s proprietary technology, the Insulative Ceramic Particle (ICP), will be used to address challenges in energy efficiency and heat control in the logistics and built environment sector. The platform can be integrated into many applications, and the impact can range from reducing greenhouse gas emissions to protecting communities that are wildfire-prone. The core of the technology has a lower conductivity than aerogels. It also has a “near-perfect emissivity score” according to the company. The NanoTech ICP is integrated with base matrix carriers; building materials, coatings, and substrates, which gives the materials heat conservation, rejection, or containment properties.

By combining the ICP into an acrylic roof coating, NanoTech has created the Cool Roof Coat, which reflects sunlight and increases the material's heat resistance. This can lower indoor temperatures by 25 to 45°F in single-story buildings and reduce the carbon emissions of mid to low-rise buildings. This can potentially equal energy savings from 20 percent up to 50 percent, which would surpass the average 15 percent savings of traditional reflective only coatings.

“This technology will have a huge impact on supporting the region's aggressive climate initiatives, such as Saudi Arabia’s Green Initiative, aiming to reduce carbon emissions by 278 million tons annually by 2030,” Jameel Ahmed, managing director at TSSM, says in the release. “The regional efforts to enhance climate action and economic opportunities through substantial investments in green technologies and projects are evident, and we are proud to be offering a product that can make a difference.”

NanoTech says its coating maintains its effectiveness over time and doesn’t suffer UV degradation issues which are helpful, especially in extreme weather conditions workers and businesses face in regions like the Middle East.

The DOE funding will go toward the creation of a new Texas-based revolving loan fund that operationally matches the existing Texas LoanSTAR revolving loan program. Photo via Getty Images

Texas lands largest portion of energy efficiency-focused federal grant program

DOE deal

Texas is among one of 17 states and territories to receive a portion of $66 million in awards for initiatives that pump federal dollars into their communities to support energy efficient projects.

The funds come from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Efficiency Revolving Loan Fund (RLF) Capitalization Grant Program. The RLF Program awards are intended to be put toward state-based loans and grants that go towards local businesses homeowners, and public spaces for "for energy efficiency audits, upgrades, and retrofits to increase energy efficiency," according to the DOE.

Texas received the largest portion thus far at $22.4 million. The dollars will go toward the creation of a new Texas-based revolving loan fund that operationally matches the existing Texas LoanSTAR revolving loan program.

The program currently finances energy-related, cost-reduced retrofits of public spaces as well as local municipalities. As of last year it had awarded more than 337 loans totaling more than $600 million, according to the Texas Comptroller's website.

In addition to the revolving loan, the state plans to use the DOE funds to provide free energy audit services to the community.

The DOE also awarded funding to create similar revolving loan programs and grants in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

According to the DOE, every federal dollar invested into a state or local revolving loan fund can bring more than of $20 in private capital toward successful energy financing programs.

“Increased opportunities for low-cost financing will help states and territories expand access to the money-saving clean energy tools that will benefit the residential, commercial and public sectors,” Jennifer M. Granholm, U.S. Secretary of Energy, said in a statement. “We are excited to see states and territories take advantage of targeted and impactful financing options to transform their communities.”

The latest funding is the third award made by the RLF Program, which plans to make another round of awards later this year and a total $242 million once wrapped.

Other awards in this latest round include:

  • Arizona ($1,690,280)
  • Colorado ($1,631,220)
  • Delaware ($746,400)
  • Georgia ($2,453,810)
  • Iowa($7,068,920)
  • Kansas ($6,706,230)
  • Maine ($863,110)
  • Massachusetts ($1,894,760)
  • Minnesota ($1,884,300).
  • Nevada ($1,043,290)
  • New Jersey ($2,383,510)
  • New Mexico ($5,692,530)
  • Oklahoma ($7,592,300)
  • Puerto Rico ($1,070,490)
  • Rhode Island ($762,790)
  • U.S. Virgin Islands ($576,170)

Click here and here to read more about the previous awards.

Earlier this summer the DOE also awarded four Houston companies have received $50,000 each from the U.S. Department of Energy to further develop their carbon dioxide removal technology. Click here to read more.

Daikin is the world’s leading air conditioning and refrigeration company, with its US headquarters and North America manufacturing facility based in Waller, Texas. Photo via htxenergytransition.org

Visiting Daikin: Houston energy transition innovation is the heart of operations

the view from HETI

In the energy capital of the world, we often think and talk about the energy transition and low carbon solutions in the context of energy production and distribution – whether it’s adding more renewables to the grid, reducing the CO2 emissions of our existing energy resources with CCUS and Hydrogen, developing energy storage technology to manage intermittency, or deploying other innovative solutions designed to produce or deliver more energy with fewer emissions – Houston is leading on all fronts.

But these aren’t the only solutions needed as we seek to solve one of the most challenging issues of our time. We cannot focus only on innovating the production and distribution of energy. As the demand for energy grows, locally and globally, we must also think innovatively about reducing the demand for energy, while still maintaining, and improving, quality of life. I had the opportunity recently to visit a company that is doing just that, right here in the Houston region.

Daikin is the world’s leading air conditioning and refrigeration company, with their US headquarters and North America manufacturing facility based right here, just 30 minutes northwest of downtown Houston in Waller, Texas. The Daikin Texas Technology Park, a 4.2 million ft2 facility, equal to 74 football fields, is dedicated to developing, manufacturing and marketing innovative solutions for meeting its customers’ needs while also reducing the energy required to keep people cool. Currently, air conditioning accounts for around 10% of global electricity consumption, with rapid demand growth expected in the future. As electrification becomes a key pathway to the decarbonization of various industries, demand for low-carbon power will continue to grow.

Achieving an affordable, reliable, and low-carbon future will require innovation across the entire energy value chain – from production to consumption, and, as the world’s leading air conditioning manufacturer, Daikin, is leading the way in developing innovative solutions to achieve optimum comfort and energy savings.

Three things struck me during my recent visit to the Daikin Texas Technology Park (DTTP):

  1. Innovation is at the heart of their operation. The integration of engineering and manufacturing in a single location facilitates collaboration and product innovation and accelerates implementation. The LEED Gold Certified facility was also innovatively designed to maximize energy efficiency and minimize environmental impact.
  2. People are a priority. The diversity of the 8000+ employees working at the DTTP was incredible. During the visit, we had the opportunity to see team members from many different backgrounds and with various skills and education working in all parts of their operation. They also offer a STEM scholarship program in partnership with the Waller Area Chamber of Commerce.
  3. They are environmentally focused. Daikin is fully committed to providing energy solutions that improve quality of life while also reducing environmental impact through improved efficiency. The heating and air conditioning products manufactured at the DTTP are some of the most innovative and energy efficient products on the market today – producing a more even temperature and offering as much as a 30% reduction in energy use compared to standard AC systems, all with a considerably smaller footprint.

As someone who spends a great deal of time thinking about the pathways to solving the global dual challenge of more energy with fewer emissions, much of my time is spent learning about innovations on the supply side of energy. It is exciting to learn that there is just as much innovation happening on the demand side of energy – and to see it happening right here in Houston.

———

This article was written by Jane Stricker, executive director and senior vice president of theGreater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative and originally ran on the HETI blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

To learn more about Daikin’s entire line of innovative heating and air conditioning products and how they are Perfecting the Air, visit the Daikin global website.

The project will focus on testing 5G networks for "stability, interoperability, energy efficiency and communication performance." Photo via Getty Images

Rice-led project receives $1.9M in federal funding to test 5G energy efficiency, more

fresh support

A team of Rice University engineers has secured a $1.9 million grant from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration to develop a new way to test 5G networks.

The project will focus on testing 5G networks for software-centric architectures, according to a statement from Rice. The funds come from the NTIA's most recent round of grants, totaling about $80 million, as part of the $1.5 billion Public Wireless Supply Chain Innovation Fund. Other awards went to Virginia Tech, Northeastern University, DISH Wireless, and more.

The project at Rice will be led by Rahman Doost-Mohammady, an assistant research professor of electrical and computer engineering; and Ashutosh Sabharwal, the Ernest Dell Butcher Professor of Engineering and chair of the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering. Santiago Segarra, assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering and an expert in machine learning for wireless network design, is also a co-principal investigator on this project.

"Current testing methodologies for wireless products have predominantly focused on the communication dimension, evaluating aspects such as load testing and channel emulation,” said Doost-Mohammady said in a statement. “But with the escalating trend toward software-based wireless products, it’s imperative that we take a more holistic approach to testing."

The new framework will be used to "assess the stability, interoperability, energy efficiency and communication performance of software-based machine learning-enabled 5G radio access networks (RANs)," according to Rice, known as ETHOS.

Once created, the team of researchers will use the framework for extensive testing using novel machine learning algorithms for 5G RAN with California-based NVIDIA's Aerial Research Cloud (ARC) platform. The team also plans to partner with other industry contacts in the future, according to Rice.

“The broader impacts of this project are far-reaching, with the potential to revolutionize software-based and machine learning-enabled wireless product testing by making it more comprehensive and responsive to the complexities of real-world network environments,” Sabharwal said in the statement. “By providing the industry with advanced tools to evaluate and ensure the stability, energy efficiency and throughput of their products, our research is poised to contribute to the successful deployment of 5G and beyond wireless networks.”

Late last year, the Houston location of Greentown Labs also landed funds from the Department of Commerce. The climatetech startup incubator was named to of the Economic Development Administration's 10th cohort of its Build to Scale program and will receive $400,000 with a $400,000 local match confirmed.

Houston-based nonprofit accelerator, BioWell, also received funding from the Build to Scale program.


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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

Texas ranked as the 40th most energy efficient state, according to a recent report. Photo via Getty Images

Texas falls short on list of most energy efficient states

big yikes

The Lone Star State again failed to perform well on an annual ranking of the most energy efficient states.

Texas ranked as the 40th most energy efficient state, according to WalletHub's annual report. Only eight continental US states ranked poorer, including Oklahoma, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, West Virginia, and South Carolina, respectively.

Source: WalletHub

The report looked at home and auto energy efficiency, as the report's methodology outlines.

"We obtained the former by calculating the ratio of total residential energy consumption to annual degree days. For the latter, we divided the annual vehicle miles driven by gallons of gasoline consumed to determine vehicle-fuel efficiency and measured annual vehicle miles driven per capita to determine transportation efficiency," reads the study.

Texas scored a 36 out of 50 points for home energy efficiency and 41 points for auto energy efficiency.

The report's experts were asked about federal incentivization of energy efficiency for customers, and all were in agreement that this is key to the future of energy.

"Energy conservation is a big piece that needs to be tackled efficiently for us to make any progress on energy transition. Incentivizing consumers and businesses is necessary but only if there is a clear demonstration of changes in personal and business work/living habits that reduce the energy footprint," says Sanjay Srinivasan, director at EMS Energy Institute and professor at Pennsylvania State University.

Another recent report looked at Texas from the solar perspective, and Houston failed to place in the top 15 most "solar" cities in the United States. However, Austin led the way for Texas, ranking the No. 3 most “solar” city in the U.S., per Thumbtack. Austin, with the highest net-new solar panel installations within the past year in Texas, split up four Californian cities in the top five. Only San Diego (No. 1) and Los Angeles (No. 2) outranked Austin.

While there's room for improvement for efficiency, Texas has among the best prices for energy, as WalletHub found in a report this summer. Texas ranked No. 49 on the list of the 2023 Most Energy-Expensive States.

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Rice research team's study keeps CO2-to-fuel devices running 50 times longer

new findings

In a new study published in the journal Science, a team of Rice University researchers shared findings on how acid bubbles can improve the stability of electrochemical devices that convert carbon dioxide into useful fuels and chemicals.

The team led by Rice associate professor Hoatian Wang addressed an issue in the performance and stability of CO2 reduction systems. The gas flow channels in the systems often clog due to salt buildup, reducing efficiency and causing the devices to fail prematurely after about 80 hours of operation.

“Salt precipitation blocks CO2 transport and floods the gas diffusion electrode, which leads to performance failure,” Wang said in a news release. “This typically happens within a few hundred hours, which is far from commercial viability.”

By using an acid-humidified CO2 technique, the team was able to extend the operational life of a CO2 reduction system more than 50-fold, demonstrating more than 4,500 hours of stable operation in a scaled-up reactor.

The Rice team made a simple swap with a significant impact. Instead of using water to humidify the CO2 gas input into the reactor, the team bubbled the gas through an acid solution such as hydrochloric, formic or acetic acid. This process made more soluble salt formations that did not crystallize or block the channels.

The process has major implications for an emerging green technology known as electrochemical CO2 reduction, or CO2RR, that transforms climate-warming CO2 into products like carbon monoxide, ethylene, or alcohols. The products can be further refined into fuels or feedstocks.

“Using the traditional method of water-humidified CO2 could lead to salt formation in the cathode gas flow channels,” Shaoyun Hao, postdoctoral research associate in chemical and biomolecular engineering at Rice and co-first author, explained in the news release. “We hypothesized — and confirmed — that acid vapor could dissolve the salt and convert the low solubility KHCO3 into salt with higher solubility, thus shifting the solubility balance just enough to avoid clogging without affecting catalyst performance.”

The Rice team believes the work can lead to more scalable CO2 electrolyzers, which is vital if the technology is to be deployed at industrial scales as part of carbon capture and utilization strategies. Since the approach itself is relatively simple, it could lead to a more cost-effective and efficient solution. It also worked well with multiple catalyst types, including zinc oxide, copper oxide and bismuth oxide, which are allo used to target different CO2RR products.

“Our method addresses a long-standing obstacle with a low-cost, easily implementable solution,” Ahmad Elgazzar, co-first author and graduate student in chemical and biomolecular engineering at Rice, added in the release. “It’s a step toward making carbon utilization technologies more commercially viable and more sustainable.”

A team led by Wang and in collaboration with researchers from the University of Houston also shared findings on salt precipitation buildup and CO2RR in a recent edition of the journal Nature Energy. Read more here.

The case for smarter CUI inspections in the energy sector

Guest Column

Corrosion under insulation (CUI) accounts for roughly 60% of pipeline leaks in the U.S. oil and gas sector. Yet many operators still rely on outdated inspection methods that are slow, risky, and economically unsustainable.

This year, widespread budget cuts and layoffs across the sector are forcing refineries to do more with less. Efficiency is no longer a goal; it’s a mandate. The challenge: how to maintain safety and reliability without overextending resources?

Fortunately, a new generation of technologies is gaining traction in the oil and gas industry, offering operators faster, safer, and more cost-effective ways to identify and mitigate CUI.

Hidden cost of corrosion

Corrosion is a pervasive threat, with CUI posing the greatest risk to refinery operations. Insulation conceals damage until it becomes severe, making detection difficult and ultimately leading to failure. NACE International estimates the annual cost of corrosion in the U.S. at $276 billion.

Compounding the issue is aging infrastructure: roughly half of the nation’s 2.6 million miles of pipeline are over 50 years old. Aging infrastructure increases the urgency and the cost of inspections.

So, the question is: Are we at a breaking point or an inflection point? The answer depends largely on how quickly the industry can move beyond inspection methods that no longer match today's operational or economic realities.

Legacy methods such as insulation stripping, scaffolding, and manual NDT are slow, hazardous, and offer incomplete coverage. With maintenance budgets tightening, these methods are no longer viable.

Why traditional inspection falls short

Without question, what worked 50 years ago no longer works today. Traditional inspection methods are slow, siloed, and dangerously incomplete.

Insulation removal:

  • Disruptive and expensive.
  • Labor-intensive and time-consuming, with a high risk of process upsets and insulation damage.
  • Limited coverage. Often targets a small percentage of piping, leaving large areas unchecked.
  • Health risks: Exposes workers to hazardous materials such as asbestos or fiberglass.

Rope access and scaffolding:

  • Safety hazards. Falls from height remain a leading cause of injury.
  • Restricted time and access. Weather, fatigue, and complex layouts limit coverage and effectiveness.
  • High coordination costs. Multiple contractors, complex scheduling, and oversight, which require continuous monitoring, documentation, and compliance assurance across vendors and protocols drive up costs.

Spot checks:

  • Low detection probability. Random sampling often fails to detect localized corrosion.
  • Data gaps. Paper records and inconsistent methods hinder lifecycle asset planning.
  • Reactive, not proactive: Problems are often discovered late after damage has already occurred.

A smarter way forward

While traditional NDT methods for CUI like Pulsed Eddy Current (PEC) and Real-Time Radiography (RTR) remain valuable, the addition of robotic systems, sensors, and AI are transforming CUI inspection.

Robotic systems, sensors, and AI are reshaping how CUI inspections are conducted, reducing reliance on manual labor and enabling broader, data-rich asset visibility for better planning and decision-making.

ARIX Technologies, for example, introduced pipe-climbing robotic systems capable of full-coverage inspections of insulated pipes without the need for insulation removal. Venus, ARIX’s pipe-climbing robot, delivers full 360° CUI data across both vertical and horizontal pipe circuits — without magnets, scaffolding, or insulation removal. It captures high-resolution visuals and Pulsed Eddy Current (PEC) data simultaneously, allowing operators to review inspection video and analyze corrosion insights in one integrated workflow. This streamlines data collection, speeds up analysis, and keeps personnel out of hazardous zones — making inspections faster, safer, and far more actionable.

These integrated technology platforms are driving measurable gains:

  • Autonomous grid scanning: Delivers structured, repeatable coverage across pipe surfaces for greater inspection consistency.
  • Integrated inspection portal: Combines PEC, RTR, and video into a unified 3D visualization, streamlining analysis across inspection teams.
  • Actionable insights: Enables more confident planning and risk forecasting through digital, shareable data—not siloed or static.

Real-world results

Petromax Refining adopted ARIX’s robotic inspection systems to modernize its CUI inspections, and its results were substantial and measurable:

  • Inspection time dropped from nine months to 39 days.
  • Costs were cut by 63% compared to traditional methods.
  • Scaffolding was minimized 99%, reducing hazardous risks and labor demands.
  • Data accuracy improved, supporting more innovative maintenance planning.

Why the time is now

Energy operators face mounting pressure from all sides: aging infrastructure, constrained budgets, rising safety risks, and growing ESG expectations.

In the U.S., downstream operators are increasingly piloting drone and crawler solutions to automate inspection rounds in refineries, tank farms, and pipelines. Over 92% of oil and gas companies report that they are investing in AI or robotic technologies or have plans to invest soon to modernize operations.

The tools are here. The data is here. Smarter inspection is no longer aspirational — it’s operational. The case has been made. Petromax and others are showing what’s possible. Smarter inspection is no longer a leap but a step forward.

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Tyler Flanagan is director of service & operations at Houston-based ARIX Technologies.


Scientists warn greenhouse gas accumulation is accelerating and more extreme weather will come

Climate Report

Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, according to a study released June 19.

The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not. The scientists calculate that by that point there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times. That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gasoline, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year.

“Things aren’t just getting worse. They’re getting worse faster,” said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth. “We’re actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there’s a silver lining. I don’t think there really is one in this one.”

That 1.5 goal, first set in the 2015 Paris agreement, has been a cornerstone of international efforts to curb worsening climate change. Scientists say crossing that limit would mean worse heat waves and droughts, bigger storms and sea-level rise that could imperil small island nations. Over the last 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, along with other greenhouse gases like methane, and specific increases in global temperatures.

In Thursday's Indicators of Global Climate Change report, researchers calculated that society can spew only 143 billion more tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide before the 1.5 limit becomes technically inevitable. The world is producing 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) a year, so that inevitability should hit around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, the scientists wrote. The world now stands at about 1.24 degrees Celsius (2.23 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times, the report said.

Earth's energy imbalance

The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly half a degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat Earth absorbs from the sun and the amount it radiates out to space, a key climate change signal, is accelerating, the report said.

“It's quite a depressing picture unfortunately, where if you look across the indicators, we find that records are really being broken everywhere,” said lead author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. “I can't conceive of a situation where we can really avoid passing 1.5 degrees of very long-term temperature change.”

The increase in emissions from fossil-fuel burning is the main driver. But reduced particle pollution, which includes soot and smog, is another factor because those particles had a cooling effect that masked even more warming from appearing, scientists said. Changes in clouds also factor in. That all shows up in Earth’s energy imbalance, which is now 25% higher than it was just a decade or so ago, Forster said.

Earth’s energy imbalance “is the most important measure of the amount of heat being trapped in the system,” Hausfather said.

Earth keeps absorbing more and more heat than it releases. “It is very clearly accelerating. It’s worrisome,” he said.

Crossing the temperature limit

The planet temporarily passed the key 1.5 limit last year. The world hit 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since preindustrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is meant to be measured over a longer period, usually considered 20 years. Still, the globe could reach that long-term threshold in the next few years even if individual years haven't consistently hit that mark, because of how the Earth's carbon cycle works.

That 1.5 is “a clear limit, a political limit for which countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable to their societies,” said study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

The mark is so important because once it is crossed, many small island nations could eventually disappear because of sea level rise, and scientific evidence shows that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond that level, especially hurting poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to curb emissions and the impacts of climate change must continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded.

Crossing the threshold "means increasingly more frequent and severe climate extremes of the type we are now seeing all too often in the U.S. and around the world — unprecedented heat waves, extreme hot drought, extreme rainfall events, and bigger storms,” said University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn't part of the study.

Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist who wasn't part of the study, said the 1.5 goal was aspirational and not realistic, so people shouldn’t focus on that particular threshold.

“Missing it does not mean the end of the world,” Dessler said in an email, though he agreed that “each tenth of a degree of warming will bring increasingly worse impacts.”