Texas expert: Evaluating COP28's progress amid the energy transition

Guest column

The controversy that dogged the climate summit shows the extent to which misinformation, politics, and outdated beliefs reign supreme — and hinder progress toward net zero, says this Texas expert. Photo by COP28 / Anthony Fleyhan

Before it even started, COP28 drew sharp condemnation from activists and left-leaning politicians who took issue with the climate conference location: the United Arab Emirates, a leading oil and gas-producing nation.

“Time to say ‘the F-words’?” CNBC asked in one headline, referring of course to “fossil fuel.” A group of US and EU lawmakers called for the removal of COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber, head of the UAE’s national oil company Adnoc. And former Vice President Al Gore slammed the host nation and the summit itself, saying it was “abusing the public’s trust” because al-Jaber couldn’t be an honest broker of a climate deal.

I get it. The optics were certain to raise eyebrows and provide low-hanging fruit for critics. But the extent to which the conference became a global flash point was surprising even to the most cynical of onlookers. Finger-pointing took center stage, relegating rational discussion to the shadows. Misinformation and distrust flourished as a tired old energy transition narrative took hold — one that pits villain oil and gas against hero Renewables in an epic fight to save the planet.

At Workrise we follow data, not ideology, you’ll know that success in the energy transition is an all-of-the-above proposition. And in this regard, COP28 made progress. Reading the text of the agreement it’s clear that the delegation has adopted the view that the dominant suppliers of energy to the world — oil and gas companies — must be a part of the solution going forward, and accepted the reality that fuel sources like nuclear and natural gas must be leveraged if we are to reach our 2050 targets.

This pragmatic approach makes sense all the time, but it has particular resonance now as the industry undergoes a sea change in the form of consolidation. Nowhere is this M&A wave more keenly felt than in Texas, where the value of 2023 mergers and acquisitions in the Permian basin reached more than $100 billion after massive deals including ExxonMobil's proposed $60 billion purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron's $53 billion acquisition of Hess. These kinds of deals will bring a seismic shift in the way the industry operates — including by enabling companies like Exxon and Chevron to find new production efficiencies, and further bake emissions reduction into their operating models.

But what becomes clear when reading the COP28 agreement is that in nearly all cases, the room was too divided to put measurable targets on the board that are enforceable. Nearly every “commitment” comes with words that provide loopholes and outs.

So what we have is a “deal” that stops short of the kind of black-and-white commitments that create accountability — a deal with language folks can live with, but that won’t meaningfully change realities on the ground. Which begs the question: Why is that, and why can’t we do more?

Two words: dogma and hostility. They are the root cause of the polarization that gripped the conference and steers the wider conversation about the energy transition worldwide. With those powerful forces holding sway, we will never get to agreements that have the teeth required to move the needle on this global challenge.

At the end of the day, it was impressive to see Al Jaber emerge from the summit with a deal of any kind, despite the fire storm that he fueled with his comments earlier in the conference.

What the world needs is leaders who are willing to put aside ideology, rely on proven facts, and grab every opportunity they have to move the chains. Just as important, those leaders need to understand the sensitivity of this topic — and how easily it becomes cannon fodder for those who seek to weaponize it. Without the right leadership, how can we hope for the general public to engage meaningfully in this debate, and to understand what their vote — whether they cast it with their wallet or at the ballot box — truly means?

So long as both sides of this debate dig in and throw stones at each other, the journey to net zero will continue to get longer and more arduous.

———

Joshua Trott is chief revenue officer at Austin-based Workrise, which is a labor provider and supply chain solution for energy companies — including some in Houston.

Looking back at top energy transition news from the year, a podcast to stream, and more of what to know going into the last week of 2023. Photo via Getty Images

LYB buys in on plastics recycling co., a podcast to stream, and more to know this week

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Editor's note: It's a new week — start it strong with three quick things to catch up on in Houston's energy transition: looking back on top news from 2023, a podcast to stream, and more.

The year in review

All month long, EnergyCapital has been looking back at 2023 — specifically the second half of it, seeing as EC's launch was this summer — to see what articles were the most read by subscribers. Here are a few of these roundups:

Check back for more in our Year in Review series here.

LYB acquires German plastic waste sourcing and engineering company

Houston-based LyondellBasell, rebranded recently to LYB, announced earlier this month that it has acquired a minority share in Source One GmbH, Leiferde, Germany, a plastic waste sourcing and engineering company, that specializes specifically in solutions for hard-to-recycle post-consumer plastic waste. This investment gives LYB access to Source One's engineering and plastic waste sourcing services, according to a news release.

"We are committed to support the growing demand of our customers for circular solutions," says Yvonne van der Laan, LyondellBasell executive vice president of Circular and Low Carbon Solutions, in the news release. “With the investment in Source One we are taking another important step to secure access to plastic waste for our recycling activities and to strengthen our Circulen product portfolio of material made from recyclable or renewable resources.”

Podcast: Moji Karimi of Cemvita talks COP28, growth of the company, and more

Moji Karimi, CEO and co-founder of Cemvita, joined the Houston Innovators Podcast last week before he had even recovered from jet lag to talk about his biggest takeaways from 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties, more commonly known as COP28.

"It was a pretty amazing experience," Karimi says, comparing the event to how CERAWeek has evolved to really have a strong presence in its innovation-focused track called Agora. "This year you had a massive section for innovation and sustainability. I think that will become a theme in COP29 and beyond to bring entrepreneurs, investors, and more participating in the event."

Karimi's three big observations are outlined here, as is the full podcast with him sharing more about Cemvita's growth this year.

Fresh from COP28, Houston innovator Moji Karimi shared his biggest observations from the event. Photo courtesy of Digital Wildcatters

3 takeaways from COP28 from Houston biotech, sustainability founder

big picture

Before he even had a chance to recover from the jetlag, Moji Karimi was thinking about his biggest takeaways from 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties, more commonly known as COP28.

Karimi, CEO and co-founder of Cemvita, a biotech company with sustainable solutions for the energy transition, joined the Houston Innovators Podcast this week to discuss what his biggest takeaways were.

Karimi's three big observations are outlined below, as is the full podcast with him sharing more about Cemvita's growth this year.

Expanding the environmental footprint

One of the big things Karimi observed was that there seems to be a rising conversation about not only how carbon emissions are effecting climate change, but that companies and countries need to look more broadly at their environmental impacts.

Specifically, Karimi learned about the new framework Task Force on Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD), an addition to Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), which was introduced a few years back.

"TNFD is the new framework to capture non-carbon emissions-related aspects of an impact on the environment, such as biodiversity loss," he says.

Language has evolved to reflect this shift too, Karimi says, referencing "nature-positive tech" and "nature tech." He says he feels like Europe has led the way so far, but in the next year or two the conversations will come to the United States.

"Some of this is driven by COP30 being in Brazil and being focused on biodiversity," he adds.

A major focus on nuclear

Karimi says he saw a lot of support for nuclear energy, which can lower the cost and carbon intensity of power. Personally, Karimi is wondering what happens if and win nuclear is better adapted, solving the current challenges the power industries face.

"What I'm interested in is so many other climate tech applications that are enabled once you have low-cost, and low-carbon power from nuclear energy. That will be interesting to watch," he says.

Actionism, not activism

Lastly, Karimi says he saw a huge push toward action, not simply advocacy. The emphasis on "actionism" included activations for COP28 attendees to share what actions could be taken now.

"The point was to all come together, no matter where you come from, and focus on what actions you can take," he says. "It was interesting to bring people together in a different way. We'll see how that translates into actions from here on."

A new initiative from federal agencies hopes to enhance access to information about greenhouse gas emissions. Photo via nasa.gov

NASA, EPA share plans for greenhouse gas initiative at COP28

need some space

Two of Houston's top industries are in for a collaboration of sorts, according to a recent announcement at the 28th annual United Nations Climate Conference, or COP28.

NASA, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and other U.S. agencies have unveiled the plans for the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center, a hub for collaboration for the federal agencies and nonprofit and private sector partners.

“NASA data is essential to making the changes needed on the ground to protect our climate. The U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center is another way the Biden-Harris Administration is working to make critical data available to more people – from scientists running data analyses, to government officials making decisions on climate policy, to members of the public who want to understand how climate change will affect them,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson says in a news release. “We’re bringing space to Earth to benefit communities across the country.”

NASA is taking the lead implementing agency position for the new center, which will be run by Argyro Kavvada, center program manager, who's based in NASA headquarters in Washington. The EPA, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will also be involved and provide greenhouse gas datasets and analysis tools.

“A goal of the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center is to accelerate the collaborative use of Earth science data,” Kavvada says. “We’re working to get the right data into the hands of people who can use it to manage and track greenhouse gas emissions.”

The center’s data catalog will be available online and target three areas: greenhouse gas emissions from humans, naturally occurring greenhouse gas emissions, and large methane emission event identification and quantification from aircraft and space-based data.

According to the release, the center is one piece of the current administration's effort to amplify information on greenhouse gas emissions, as outlined in the recently released National Strategy to Advance an Integrated U.S. Greenhouse Gas Measurement, Monitoring, and Information System.

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SLB partners with renewables company to develop next-gen geothermal systems

geothermal partnership

Houston-based energy technology company SLB and renewable energy company Ormat Technologies have teamed up to fast-track the development and commercialization of advanced geothermal technology.

Their initiative focuses on enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). These systems represent “the next generation of geothermal technology, meant to unlock geothermal energy in regions beyond where conventional geothermal resources exist,” the companies said in a news release.

After co-developing EGS technology, the companies will test it at an existing Ormat facility. Following the pilot project, SLB and Nevada-based Ormat will pursue large-scale EGS commercialization for utilities, data center operators and other customers. Ormat owns, operates, designs, makes and sells geothermal and recovered energy generation (REG) power plants.

“There is an urgent need to meet the growing demand for energy driven by AI and other factors. This requires accelerating the path to clean and reliable energy,” Gavin Rennick, president of new energy at SLB, said in a news release.

Traditional geothermal systems rely on natural hot water or steam reservoirs underground, limiting the use of geothermal technology. EGS projects are designed to create thermal reservoirs in naturally hot rock through which water can circulate, transferring the energy back to the surface for power generation and enabling broader availability of geothermal energy.

The U.S. Department of Energy estimates next-generation geothermal, such as EGS, could provide 90 gigawatts of electricity by 2050.

Baker Hughes to provide equipment for massive low-carbon ammonia plant

coming soon

Houston-based energy technology company Baker Hughes has been tapped to supply equipment for what will be the world’s largest low-carbon ammonia plant.

French technology and engineering company Technip Energies will buy a steam turbine generator and compression equipment from Baker Hughes for Blue Point Number One, a $4 billion low-carbon ammonia plant being developed in Louisiana by a joint venture comprising CF Industries, JERA and Mitsui & Co. Technip was awarded a contract worth at least $1.1 billion to provide services for the Blue Point project.

CF, a producer of ammonia and nitrogen, owns a 40 percent stake in the joint venture, with JERA, Japan’s largest power generator, at 35 percent and Mitsui, a Japanese industrial conglomerate, at 25 percent.

The Blue Point Number One project, to be located at CF’s Blue Point ammonia production facility, will be capable of producing about 1.4 million metric tons of low-carbon ammonia per year and permanently storing up to 2.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.

Construction of the ammonia-making facility is expected to start in 2026, with production of low-carbon ammonia set to get underway in 2029.

“Ammonia, as a lower-carbon energy source, is poised to play a pivotal role in enabling and accelerating global sustainable energy development,” Alessandro Bresciani, senior vice president of energy equipment at Baker Hughes, said in a news release.

Earlier this year, British engineering and industrial gas company Linde signed a long-term contract to supply industrial gases for Blue Point Number One. Linde Engineering Americas is based in Houston.

Houston expert asks: Is the Texas grid ready for the future?

Guets Column

Texas has spent the past five years racing to strengthen its electric grid after Winter Storm Uri exposed just how vulnerable it was. Billions have gone into new transmission lines, grid hardening, and a surge of renewables and batteries. Those moves have made a difference, we haven’t seen another systemwide blackout like Uri, but the question now isn’t what’s been done, it’s whether Texas can keep up with what’s coming.

Massive data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial projects are driving electricity demand to unprecedented levels. NERC recently boosted its 10-year load forecast for Texas by more than 60%. McKinsey projects that U.S. electricity demand will rise roughly 40% by 2030 and double by 2050, with data centers alone accounting for as much as 11-12% of total U.S. electricity demand by 2030, up from about 4% today. Texas, already the top destination for new data centers, will feel that surge at a greater scale.

While the challenges ahead are massive and there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road (some probably big), we have an engaged Texas legislature, capable regulatory bodies, active non-profits, pragmatic industry groups, and the best energy minds in the world working together to make a market-based system work. I am optimistic Texas will find a way.

Why Texas Faces a Unique Grid Challenge

About 90% of Texas is served by a single, independent grid operated by ERCOT, rather than being connected to the two large interstate grids that cover the rest of the country. This structure allows ERCOT to avoid federal oversight of its market design, although it still must comply with FERC reliability standards. The trade-off is limited access to power from neighboring states during emergencies, leaving Texas to rely almost entirely on in-state generation and reserves when extreme weather hits.

ERCOT’s market design is also different. It’s an “energy-only” market, meaning generators are paid for electricity sold, not for keeping capacity available. While that lowers prices in normal times, it also makes it harder to finance backup, dispatchable generation like natural gas and batteries needed when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining.

The Risks Mounting

In Texas, solar and wind power supply a significant percentage of electricity to the grid. As Julie Cohn, a nonresident scholar at the Baker Institute, explains, these inverter‑based resources “connect through power electronics, which means they don’t provide the same physical signals to the grid that traditional generators do.” The Odessa incidents, where solar farms tripped offline during minor grid disturbances, showed how fragile parts of this evolving grid can be. “Fortunately, it didn’t result in customer outages, and it was a clear signal that Texas has the opportunity to lead in solving this challenge.”

Extreme weather adds more pressure while the grid is trying to adapt to a surge in use. CES research manager Miaomiao Rimmer notes: “Hurricane frequencies haven't increased, but infrastructure and population in their paths have expanded dramatically. The same hurricane that hit 70 years ago would cause far more damage today because there’s simply more in harm’s way.”

Medlock: “Texas has made significant strides in the last 5 years, but there’s more work to be done.”

Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, argues that Texas’s problem isn’t a lack of solutions; it’s how quickly those solutions are implemented. He stresses that during the January 2024 cold snap, natural gas kept the grid stable, proving that “any system configuration with sufficient, dispatchable generation capacity would have kept the lights on.” Yet ERCOT load has exceeded dispatchable capacity with growing frequency since 2018, raising the stakes for future reliability.

Ken notes: “ERCOT has a substantial portfolio of options, including investment in dispatchable generation, storage near industrial users, transmission expansion, and siting generation closer to load centers. But allowing structural risks to reliability that can be avoided at a reasonable cost is unacceptable. Appropriate market design and sufficient regulatory oversight are critical.” He emphasizes that reliability must be explicitly priced into ERCOT’s market so backup resources can be built and maintained profitably. These resources, whether natural gas, nuclear, or batteries, cannot remain afterthoughts if Texas wants a stable grid.

Building a More Reliable Grid

For Texas to keep pace with rising demand and withstand severe weather, it must act decisively on multiple fronts, strengthening its grid while building for long-term growth.

Coordinated Planning: Align regulators, utilities, and market players to plan decades ahead, not just for next summer.
Balancing Clean and Reliable Power: Match renewable growth with flexible, dispatchable generation that can deliver power on demand.
Fixing Local Weak Spots: Harden distribution networks, where most outages occur, rather than focusing only on large-scale generation.
Market Reform and Technology Investment: Price reliability fairly and support R&D to make renewables strengthen, not destabilize, the grid.

In Conclusion

While Texas has undeniably improved its grid since Winter Storm Uri, surging electricity demand and intensifying weather mean the work is far from over. Unlike other states, ERCOT can’t rely on its neighbors for backup power, and its market structure makes new dispatchable resources harder to build. Decisive leadership, investment, and reforms will be needed to ensure Texas can keep the lights on.

It probably won’t be a smooth journey, but my sense is that Texas will solve these problems and do something spectacular. It will deliver more power with fewer emissions, faster than skeptics believe, and surprise us all.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

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