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Houston expert looks at wholesale pricing trends occurring this summer

PJ Popovic of Houston-based Rhythm Energy looks back on summer heatwave trends. Photo via Shutterstock

This summer’s heatwave had a lot of Texans feeling uncomfortable, and it was not just the sweltering triple-digit temperatures, and even higher heat indexes, that had us sweating. With much of the state hitting over 100 degrees for weeks, air conditioners were working overtime to keep homes and businesses cool. That added load, coupled with general demand growth, put a heavy burden on the Texas power grid — and that puts the state in a precarious position.

We all remember Uri in February 2021, when an inch-thick coat of ice hampered power companies' ability to generate power, leading to widespread and lasting power outages across the state. The recent heat wave, however, was different. This past summer, the concern for Texas and ERCOT (the Electric Reliability Council of Texas) was not whether generation would fail, but whether generation capacity could keep pace with peak demand. And what would be the wholesale electricity price to ensure that it did.

The generation mix

As robust as our electricity grid is, on any given day the balance between power supply and demand remains fairly tenuous. In its summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy, ERCOT projected its power-generation capacity at 97,000 MW. However, that daily capacity number can be misleading.

As Texas’ generation mix leans to a greater degree toward renewable power and we retire more coal and natural gas fired generation plants, our generation output becomes less predictable. Operators can practically flip a switch to turn on fossil fuel generation plants and quickly dispatch its power. Renewable generation, on the other hand, is intermittent and its output by no means guaranteed. While the state’s current combined wind and solar generation can potentially deliver up to 30,000 megawatts, if the right weather conditions are not there, neither is the power.

Meanwhile, the demand for power in Texas has increased dramatically. In recent years, we have seen significant population growth, electrification as well as new business expansion throughout the state. Some of the businesses moving here draw huge loads of power from the grid — think about the companies mining digital currency or Elon Musk’s SpaceX facilities in Central Texas, just to name a few. A considerable demand curve increase occurring simultaneously with the move to more renewable generation challenges the delicate balance of the grid.

Trends and lessons learned from the summer’s wholesale electricity pricing

ERCOT manages the flow of electricity across the state of Texas. It also oversees the wholesale bulk power market whereby generators are paid primarily for the electricity they supply to the grid. To incentivize the development of future generating capacity, ERCOT employs scarcity pricing — that means that commodity prices escalate dramatically as supply becomes constrained.

This summer, ERCOT faced unprecedented demand with daily electricity usage frequently nearing generation capacity limits. Consequently, electricity prices were notably volatile, often skyrocketing exponentially.

ERCOT employs a complex series of pricing mechanisms to establish its real-time price for each megawatt. A deep dive analysis (INSERT LINK) found that the Locational Margin Prices, or LMP, were significantly higher than previous years, even when reserve generation capacities were robust and fuel prices were similar to or lower than prior years.

So, what contributed to the higher than usual prices? Certainly, changes to ERCOT operations, market design tweaks, and transmission constraints contributed, but market prices were most driven by generators’ offer pricing curves.

Now, more than four months removed from the start of the heat wave in June, we can see how different various technologies priced their offerings. The data suggests that a segment of resources, notably battery storage, set their offer prices near or at the system-wide offer price cap. Given the anticipated rise of batteries as the primary dispatchable resource within the grid in coming years, this pricing behavior warrants closer scrutiny.

Offer pricing curves appear to have created a semblance of shortage pricing, evident in the heightened LMPs, even when reserve capacities were not especially scarce. This would suggest that a significant portion of the dispatchable capacity integrated into ERCOT was priced at levels typically seen only in grid emergency conditions

Key questions

Why are the recently added dispatchable resources garnering such high offer prices? Are there operational hurdles in integrating and dispatching batteries, challenges in market design, inherent limitations of batteries on the grid, or other factors contributing to these high offer prices from battery resources? Given that batteries are poised to play a central role in the transition to renewable energy sources, answering these questions will be key.

The current pricing trends in the ERCOT market, if sustained, could lead to increased electricity rates and/or increased price volatility for end-users, underscoring the importance of monitoring and addressing these market dynamics.

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PJ Popovic is the CEO of Houston-based Rhythm Energy.

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A View From HETI

Eight Texas companies made it on Time’s Most Sustainable Companies list for 2025. Photo via Getty Images

Spring-based IT company Hewlett Packard Enterprise leads the list of eight Texas businesses that appear in Time magazine’s and data provider Statista’s World’s Most Sustainable Companies list for 2025.

HPE landed at No. 68, earning a score of 74.36 out of 100.

Time and Statista said the ranking highlights corporate responsibility and promotes sustainable practices.

“In an era marked by significant environmental challenges and social inequalities, it is crucial to recognize and reward companies prioritizing sustainability,” according to an article on Time’s website. “By featuring these leading entities, the ranking sets a benchmark for other businesses, fostering transparency and accountability and encouraging the integration of sustainability into core corporate strategies.”

Time and Statista’s ranking process started with a list of more than 5,000 of the world’s largest, most influential companies based on factors such as revenue and public prominence. They identified the top 500 companies based on more than 20 data points.

The process weeded out non-sustainable businesses, such as those involved in producing fossil fuels, and zeroed in on:

  • External sustainability ratings
  • Availability and quality of sustainability reports
  • Performance regarding environmental and social responsibility measures

HPE is targeting net-zero status across its supply chain by 2040. Working toward that goal, the company predicts its carbon emissions will decrease by 33 percent from 2020 to 2028.

“The climate transition demands collective action across our entire value chain, and I am resolute in my commitment to ensure that HPE plays a central role in showcasing the attainability of net-zero emissions through our technologies and actions,” said Antonio Neri, HPE’s president and CEO.

Among the ways HPE is reducing carbon emissions are:

  • Shipping certain products in bigger bundles
  • Incorporating environmentally responsible design
  • Using more renewable energy
  • Improving energy efficiency in buildings
  • Eventually shifting to an all-electric automotive fleet

Here’s a rundown of the eight Texas-based companies that made the sustainability list, including their global rankings and scores.

  • No. 68 Spring-based Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Score: 74.36
  • No. 81 Dallas-based CBRE. Score: 73.49
  • No. 142 Dallas-based AMN Healthcare Services. Score: 69.8
  • No. 165 Austin-based Digital Realty. Score: 68.64
  • No. 257 Round Rock-based Dell Technologies. Score: 64.89
  • No. 295 Frisco-based Keurig Dr Pepper. Score: 63.25
  • No. 335 Dallas-based Jacobs Engineering. Score: 61.98
  • No. 471 Dallas-based AT&T. Score: 57.28

France-based Schneider Electric claimed the top spot on the global list. The company opened a 10,500-square-foot, state-of-the-art Energy Innovation Center in Houston earlier this year.

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