At last year's awards program, Cemvita Factory's co-founders, Tara and Moji Karimi, accepted the award for the Green Impact Business category. This year, Moji Karimi served as a judge

The 2023 Houston Innovation Awards announced its 52 finalists — a large portion of which are promising energy transition startups.

The awards program — hosted by EnergyCapital's sister site, InnovationMap, and Houston Exponential — will name its winners on November 8 at the Houston Innovation Awards. The program was established to honor the best and brightest companies and individuals from the city's innovation community.

The following startups, which all have an energy transition element to their business, received a finalist position in one or two categories.

Click here to secure your tickets to see who wins.

  • ALLY Energy, helping energy companies and climate startups find, develop, and retain great talent, scored two finalist positions — one in the Female-Owned Business category and the other in the Social Impact Business category.
  • Eden Grow Systems, next generation farming technologies, is a finalist in the People's Choice: Startup of the Year category.
  • Feelit Technologies, nanotechnology for preventive maintenance to eliminate leaks, fires and explosions, increase safety and reduce downtime, is a finalist in the Female-Owned Business category and the People's Choice: Startup of the Year category.
  • Fervo Energy, leveraging proven oil and gas drilling technology to deliver 24/7 carbon-free geothermal energy, scored two finalist positions — one in the Sustainability Business category and the other in the People's Choice: Startup of the Year category.
  • FluxWorks, making frictionless gearboxes for missions in any environment, is a finalist in the Hardtech Business category.
  • Helix Earth Technologies, decarbonizing the built environment and heavy industry, is a finalist in the Hardtech Business category.
  • INOVUES, re-energizing building facades through its non-invasive window retrofit innovations, making building smarter, greener, and healthier for a better and sustainable future, was named a finalist in the Sustainability Business category.
  • Kanin Energy, helping heavy industry monetize their waste heat and decarbonize their operations, was named a finalist in the BIPOC-Owned Business and the Sustainability Business categories.
  • Mars Materials, developing a carbon-negative pathway for carbon fiber and acrylamide production using CO2 and biomass as raw materials, is a finalist in the BIPOC-Owned Business category.
  • Molecule, an energy/commodity trading risk management software that provides users with an efficient, reliable, responsive platform for managing trade risk, is a finalist in the Digital Solutions Business category.
  • Rhythm Energy, 100 percent renewable electricity service for residential customers in Texas, is a finalist in the People's Choice: Startup of the Year category.
  • Sage Geosystems, a cost-effective geothermal baseload energy solution company, also innovating underground energy storage solutions, was named a finalist in the Sustainability Business category.
  • Solugen, decarbonizing the chemical industry, is a finalist in the Hardtech Business category.
  • Square Robot, applying robotic technology to eliminate the need to put people into dangerous enclosed spaces and eliminate taking tanks out of service, is a finalist in the Hardtech Business category.
  • Syzygy Plasmonics, a deep decarbonization company that builds chemical reactors designed to use light instead of combustion to produce valuable chemicals like hydrogen and sustainable fuels, is a finalist in the Hardtech Business category.
  • Tierra Climate, decarbonizing the power grid faster by helping grid-scale batteries monetize their environmental benefits and change their operational behavior to abate more carbon, was named a finalist in the Sustainability Business category.
  • Utility Global, a technology company converting a range of waste gases into sustainable hydrogen and syngas, was named a finalist in the Sustainability Business category.
  • Venus Aerospace, a hypersonics company on track to fly reusable hypersonic flight platforms by 2024, is a finalist in the Hardtech Business category.

Additionally, two energy companies were named to the Corporate of the Year category, which honors corporations that supports startups and/or the Houston innovation community. Aramco Ventures and Chevron Technology Ventures are two of the four finalists in this category.

Lastly, Jason Ethier, co-founder of Lambda Catalyzer and host of the Energy Tech Startups podcast, and Kendrick Alridge, senior manager of community at Greentown Labs, scored finalist positions in the Ecosystem Builder category, as individuals who have acted as leaders in developing Houston’s startup ecosystem.

Click here to see the full list of finalists.

PJ Popovic of Houston-based Rhythm Energy looks back on summer heatwave trends. Photo via Shutterstock

Houston expert looks at wholesale pricing trends occurring this summer

guest column

This summer’s heatwave had a lot of Texans feeling uncomfortable, and it was not just the sweltering triple-digit temperatures, and even higher heat indexes, that had us sweating. With much of the state hitting over 100 degrees for weeks, air conditioners were working overtime to keep homes and businesses cool. That added load, coupled with general demand growth, put a heavy burden on the Texas power grid — and that puts the state in a precarious position.

We all remember Uri in February 2021, when an inch-thick coat of ice hampered power companies' ability to generate power, leading to widespread and lasting power outages across the state. The recent heat wave, however, was different. This past summer, the concern for Texas and ERCOT (the Electric Reliability Council of Texas) was not whether generation would fail, but whether generation capacity could keep pace with peak demand. And what would be the wholesale electricity price to ensure that it did.

The generation mix

As robust as our electricity grid is, on any given day the balance between power supply and demand remains fairly tenuous. In its summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy, ERCOT projected its power-generation capacity at 97,000 MW. However, that daily capacity number can be misleading.

As Texas’ generation mix leans to a greater degree toward renewable power and we retire more coal and natural gas fired generation plants, our generation output becomes less predictable. Operators can practically flip a switch to turn on fossil fuel generation plants and quickly dispatch its power. Renewable generation, on the other hand, is intermittent and its output by no means guaranteed. While the state’s current combined wind and solar generation can potentially deliver up to 30,000 megawatts, if the right weather conditions are not there, neither is the power.

Meanwhile, the demand for power in Texas has increased dramatically. In recent years, we have seen significant population growth, electrification as well as new business expansion throughout the state. Some of the businesses moving here draw huge loads of power from the grid — think about the companies mining digital currency or Elon Musk’s SpaceX facilities in Central Texas, just to name a few. A considerable demand curve increase occurring simultaneously with the move to more renewable generation challenges the delicate balance of the grid.

Trends and lessons learned from the summer’s wholesale electricity pricing

ERCOT manages the flow of electricity across the state of Texas. It also oversees the wholesale bulk power market whereby generators are paid primarily for the electricity they supply to the grid. To incentivize the development of future generating capacity, ERCOT employs scarcity pricing — that means that commodity prices escalate dramatically as supply becomes constrained.

This summer, ERCOT faced unprecedented demand with daily electricity usage frequently nearing generation capacity limits. Consequently, electricity prices were notably volatile, often skyrocketing exponentially.

ERCOT employs a complex series of pricing mechanisms to establish its real-time price for each megawatt. A deep dive analysis (INSERT LINK) found that the Locational Margin Prices, or LMP, were significantly higher than previous years, even when reserve generation capacities were robust and fuel prices were similar to or lower than prior years.

So, what contributed to the higher than usual prices? Certainly, changes to ERCOT operations, market design tweaks, and transmission constraints contributed, but market prices were most driven by generators’ offer pricing curves.

Now, more than four months removed from the start of the heat wave in June, we can see how different various technologies priced their offerings. The data suggests that a segment of resources, notably battery storage, set their offer prices near or at the system-wide offer price cap. Given the anticipated rise of batteries as the primary dispatchable resource within the grid in coming years, this pricing behavior warrants closer scrutiny.

Offer pricing curves appear to have created a semblance of shortage pricing, evident in the heightened LMPs, even when reserve capacities were not especially scarce. This would suggest that a significant portion of the dispatchable capacity integrated into ERCOT was priced at levels typically seen only in grid emergency conditions

Key questions

Why are the recently added dispatchable resources garnering such high offer prices? Are there operational hurdles in integrating and dispatching batteries, challenges in market design, inherent limitations of batteries on the grid, or other factors contributing to these high offer prices from battery resources? Given that batteries are poised to play a central role in the transition to renewable energy sources, answering these questions will be key.

The current pricing trends in the ERCOT market, if sustained, could lead to increased electricity rates and/or increased price volatility for end-users, underscoring the importance of monitoring and addressing these market dynamics.

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PJ Popovic is the CEO of Houston-based Rhythm Energy.

The University of Houston's football season is starting off in a new conference — and with a new renewable energy partner. Photo via uh.edu

University plugs into Houston renewables co. as official athletics energy provider

go coogs

This college football season brings a lot of newness for the University of Houston: A new conference, following the athletic program's July transition to the Big 12. And a new official energy provider that is 100 percent renewable.

UH Athletics announced last week that Houston-based Rhythm Energy has signed on to be the official energy company of the program. The company will have a presence on signage at all sports venues, a strong digital presence across UH Athletics platforms; and Cougars’ basketball, baseball, softball, soccer, and track and field home events.

Rhythm Energy will also roll out The Go Coogs 12 Plan in time for football season, which will be an exclusive electricity plan to help UH faculty, alumni, students and fans go green.

“As a proud UH alumni, I am so pleased Rhythm Energy has become the Official Energy Company for my alma mater,” PJ Popovic, CEO of Rhythm Energy, said in a statement. “UH is hands down one of the top educational and athletic institutions in the nation, and I’m forever grateful for the knowledge I gained there, which allowed me to start my own renewable energy company. With UH joining the Big 12 Conference, we’re inspired by their success, achievements, and growth—something we strive for at Rhythm Energy every day.”

UH Athletics oversees 17 sport programs — seven on the men's side, including baseball, basketball, cross country, football, golf, and track and field, and 10 on the women's side, including basketball, cross country, golf, soccer, softball, swimming and diving, tennis, track and field, and volleyball.

Popovic founded Rhythm Energy in 2021. The company offers 100 percent renewable energy plans for Texas residents, using solar power, wind power and other renewable power sources.

The founder spoke with EnergyCapital last month about where he thinks renewables fit into Texas’ energy consumption and grid reliability issues and the shifting public opinion towards renewables.

"There is still a lot (speech) that is not necessarily painting renewables correctly," he tells EnergyCapital.

Houston-based Rhythm Energy CEO and founder, PJ Popovic, discusses the landscape of Texas' energy market and how renewables should be incorporated. Photo courtesy of Rhythm

Houston exec breaks down Texas energy market, role of renewables, and more

Q&A

After experiencing the hottest day on record this past Fourth of July, PJ Popovic — CEO and founder of green energy retailer Rhythm Energy — explained what extreme temperatures like these mean for Texas’ energy market and the role renewables will play in addressing increased demand response.

Headquartered in Houston, Rhythm Energy launched two years ago and offers a variety of 100 percent renewable energy backed plans, from wind to solar. Popovic discussed with EnergyCapital where he thinks renewables fit into Texas’ energy consumption and grid reliability issues in an interview.

EnergyCapital: Let’s start with some background on Texas’ electricity and energy market. Can you explain ERCOT and PUC and the roles they play in our current market?

PJ Popovic: ERCOT first of all, it stands for Electric Reliability Council of Texas. So basically, the easiest way to explain it is it’s our transmission organization and it really coordinates movements of wholesale electricity in most of the state of Texas. It really manages the price of power and balances supply and demand. To make sure that we have power when we flip the light switch on, make sure that power is there. Besides ERCOT, we have something called transmission companies, which is if you know, centerpoint, or ENCORE as an example, they really transport the power and they're compensated by a fee on customers bills. So every customer bill, including the ones that we send with Rhythm, includes Centerpoint charge, which is really the cost of automated Centerpoint maintaining those, those transmission and distribution networks.

And then the Public Utility Commission — the best way and easiest way to explain it — is really responsible for regulating the whole electricity market. And besides the electricity market, they also regulate telecommunications and water and sewer utilities in Texas as well. And they are responsible for making sure we have a well functioning market. Lately there’s been a lot of news because of the market design changes, which really have to be okay with them because that really ties in to regulation of the market and they also resolve customer complaints. Maybe that's another function they do.

EC: What are renewables’ roles in Texas’ energy consumption? How do they play a part in the electric grid’s demand response?

PJP: We really talk a lot about the energy transition, and over the years, you're hearing that more and more in the news. One interesting thing about Texas is that we already went through a first phase — a huge phase — of energy transitions in the prior years. So we've kind of been there, done that.

When I think about energy transitioning, it's really a continuation and acceleration of what's already started. Texas has really secured the top spot right now, in being the biggest renewable provider or having the largest generation fleet powered by renewables in the United States, and really, there was a huge decline in coal, which didn't happen just in Texas, it was across the United States. It really was compensated and then some with the growth in wind and solar.

Renewables play an incredibly important role in Texas — with Texas being a very competitive, free market. It's able to attract a lot of investments and get renewables at scale, which ultimately does lower all of our electricity costs. Demand has been growing in Texas tremendously. Texas summer consumption, highest of the days, hit 79 to 80 gigawatts. Every single year Texas adds approximately one more gigawatt of demand. If you look at the grid growth, we're growing in summers, we're growing even more in winters between.

EC: Since the freeze and subsequent power crisis of 2021, have you noticed a shift in public opinion towards renewables?

PJP: Yes, we have as part of Rhythm. So the unfortunate reality is I think that renewables became a very political question and there's always the question like, “What is right thing versus what is left thing,” and that's the sad reality and I will come come back to it because just a long story short, renewables are and will become a major part of how we supply homes and businesses.

But the shift in public opinion was evident after winter storm Uri. We saw a combination of misinformation, lack of knowledge about how renewables work in the electricity kind of grid collapse we had during the winter storm. And there were a lot of questions about whether winds can support anything, whether it's going to be available when it's hot or cold.

There is still a lot of I would say speech that is not necessarily painting renewables correctly. For example, when we talk about dispatchable generation we tend to talk about gas power plants, about how we need gas power plants. One of the things that I think is beautiful about renewables is that really technology is evolving rapidly and it's advancing insanely fast. And when you talk about dispatchable generation, five years ago, yes, it was gas. But if you think about today, there are already batteries being installed in Texas, and if you think about the future, there's probably half a dozen or dozen different technologies that are going to be renewable based technologies that will potentially play the role of dispatchable generation.

EC: So, if solar continues to grow in market share and sizzling summers continue, why isn't solar taking a larger role in supporting Texas' grid?

PJP: Let's talk about the challenges as well of solar and renewables as they stand today. First of all, one thing I want to set clear, none of the situations we're in should be a surprise. It should not be a surprise at all that we question whether we're going to have electricity in, for example, cold winter days. We've been going through this transition for years. And what happened, we kept retiring dispatchable generation such as coal, which is a good thing, because of the pollution and other other impacts it has on our communities. At the same time, we kept building renewables and there is a continued retirement of generation acids today, and there is at the same time significant upward pressure on the low data centers, electrification and so forth. We also have really great incentives to build more renewables through the inflation Reduction Act, so you're gonna see that acceleration.

However, this is not sustainable. There are periods of time where we do need dispatchable generation, solar and renewables are not dispatchable so there is the famous saying, "if the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining, we're not gonna get any electricity." So the changes in mix where you switch from more dispatchable generation to more just renewable generation is a dangerous one, if you do not have appropriate balance and appropriately view how much generation you need for some really specific hours or specific days with some extreme weather temperatures. So we're quite keen on getting appropriate market design that will incentivize the buildup of dispatchable generation. We love solar, we love wind intermittency, but not being able to turn it on and off is not a bug. It's a feature of that generation. We knew that all along. So the question is really, how do you compliment that with some dispatchable generation that will allow you to secure a well functioning and cost competitive grid?

​EC: What real incentives for consumers should be considered to improve demand response?

PJP: Demand response is one of those components that we really love because we believe that that's definitely again a feature of the grid of the future. I would say maybe before we even go about demand response, first of all, there's a number of solutions that need to be done on the generation side. And those solutions, we are firm believers, should not be locking us into a certain technology. I would say you have to have the right incentives to incentivize the build out to dispatchable generation. However, don't lock us into one technology because technology is rapidly advancing.

We in Texas have to take energy efficiency seriously. If you look at the growth of the load of the demand in Texas, our winters are growing more rapidly than summer peaks. So summer peaks, approximately two and a half gigawatts year over year growth. Winter peaks are growing three and a half gigawatts, and that's not sustainable because at one point you're not going to be able to build out enough generation and enough demand response to be able to supply power to those homes in the cold winter days if we have inefficient electric heating, which is what we're seeing in Texas. Energy efficiency standards have to be raised and that's something that's going to pay dividends in the next several years already.

Demand response is something we're quite keen to see more of. At Rhythm for example, we serve close to 20,000 solar customers with rooftop solar, a lot of them have batteries. So the pulling of those batteries is an example. Being able to dispatch those batteries provides electricity not just for those homes, but also sending the electricity back to the grid is becoming immense. And it's not only a question about what we have today, it's a question about the growth we're seeing in solar and battery installations. The homes are installing solar at a really rapid pace and we're getting to some serious size in terms of what we have behind the meters.

EC: What do you want people to know about how Rhythm addresses grid instability?

PJP: At Rhythm, we really take having a reliable and cost effective grid seriously, so there are a number of solutions we're putting in place and solutions that are coming up that we're going to hopefully be able to announce within the next couple of weeks. We started this 100 percent renewable company, to support energy, movement to renewables and we want to support specific assets that are built in Texas. We are huge believers that renewables are part of the overall solution because every megawatt hour we have from renewable generation is a megawatt hour we do not have to produce from coal or gas. We all know, especially after last year and this year's events, which is the war in Ukraine, how important that is because energy and commodity prices can skyrocket.

Rhythm supports that build up to renewables. At the same time we do advocate for really responsible solutions in the market. So we are actively advocating on behalf of our customers to make sure we have a reliable and well functioning grid. How do we do that? We do that through conversations around performance credit mechanisms, making sure we implement it in a way that benefits Texas consumers. We are the face of Texas customers, we have to explain anything that's not logical that gets implemented. So we take personal responsibility around how those solutions are being really developed and what makes sense for the consumer.

Lastly, we want to look beyond just global energy credits and look at the real products that can make a true difference. So we are investing money now in building new products that are going to incentivize customers to move consumption from those very expensive periods into cheaper periods. Move away from those expensive periods where we pollute a lot, when there is a lot of dirty generation, into periods where we have more renewables. We're going to do that through smart plans that are coming up. We're going to do that to plans where people get a clear financial signal incentive of changes in behavior that will benefit both the grid overall Texas market and their bills. So that's one thing I'm really excited about. We should be launching in a week and a half to two weeks.

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This conversation has been edited for brevity and clarity.

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Houston companies scoop up $31 million in funds from DOE, EPA methane emissions program

fresh funds

The U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced the selection of seven projects from Houston companies to receive funding through the Methane Emissions Reduction Program.

The projects are among 43 others nationwide, including 12 from Texas, that reduce, monitor, measure, and quantify methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. The DOE and EPA awarded $850 million in total through the program.

The Houston companies picked up $31.7 million in federal funding through the program in addition to more than $9.5 million in non-federal dollars.

“I’m excited about the opportunities these will create internally but even more so the creation of jobs and training opportunities for the communities in which we work,” Scott McCurdy, Encino Environmental Services CEO, said in a news release. His company received awards for two projects.

“These projects will allow us to further support and strengthen the U.S. Energy industry’s ability to deliver clean, reliable, and affordable energy globally,” he added.

The Houston-area awards included:

DaphneTech USA LLC

Total funding: $5.8 million (approximately $4.5 million in federal, $1.3 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Daphne and Williams Methane Slip Abatement Plasma-Catalyst Scale-Up project. Daphne will study how its SlipPure technology, a novel exhaust gas cleaning system that abates methane and exhaust gas pollution from natural gas-fueled engines, can be economically viable across multiple engine types and operating conditions.

Baker Hughes Energy Transition LLC 

Total funding: $7.47 million (approximately $6 million in federal, $1.5 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Advancing Low Cost CH4 Emissions Reduction from Flares through Large Scale Deployment of Retrofittable and Adaptive Technology project. The project aims to develop a scalable, integrated methane emissions reduction system for flares based on optical gas imaging and estimation algorithms.

Encino Environmental Services

Total funding: $15.17 million (approximately $11 million in federal, $4.17 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for two projects. The Advanced Methane Reduction System: Integrating Infrared and Visual Imaging to Assess Net Heating Value at the Combustion Zone and Determine Combustion Efficiency to Enhance Flaring Performance project aims to develop and deploy an advanced continuous emissions monitoring system. It’s Advancing Methane Emissions Reduction through Innovative Technology project will develop and deploy a technology using sensors and composite materials to address emissions originating in storage tanks.

Envana Software Solutions

Total funding: $5.26 million (approximately $4.2 million in federal, $1 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Leak Detection and Reduction Software to Identify Methane Emissions and Trigger Mitigation at Oil and Gas Production Facilities Based on SCADA Data project. It aims to improve its Recon software for monitoring methane emissions and develop partnerships with local universities and organizations.

Capwell Services Inc.

Total funding: $4.19 million (approximately $3.3 million in federal, $837,000 in non-federal)

The award was granted for its Methane Emissions Abatement Technology for Low-Flow and Intermittent Emission Sources project. It aims to to deploy and field-test a methane abatement unit and improve air quality and health outcomes for communities near production facilities and establish field technician internships for local residents.

Blue Sky Measurements 

Total funding: $3.41 million (approximately $2.7 million in federal, $683,000 in non-federal)

The award was granted for its Field Validation of Novel Fixed Position Optical Sensor for Fugitive Methane Emission Detection Quantification and Location with Real-Time Notification for Rapid Mitigation project. It aims to field test an optical sensing technology at six well sites in the Permian Basin.

Southern Methodist University, The University of Texas at Austin, Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station and Hyliion Inc. were other Texas-based organizations to earn awards. See the full list of projects here.

Texas university's 'WaterHub' will dramatically reduce water usage by 40%

Sustainable Move

A major advancement in sustainability is coming to one Texas university. A new UT WaterHub at the University of Texas at Austin will be the largest facility of its kind in the U.S. and will transform how the university manages its water resources.

It's designed to work with natural processes instead of against them for water savings of an estimated 40 percent. It's slated for completion in late 2027.

The university has had an active water recovery program since the 1980s. Still, water is becoming an increasing concern in Austin. According to Texas Living Waters, a coalition of conservation groups, Texas loses enough water annually to fill Lady Bird Lake roughly 89 times over.

As Austin continues to expand and face water shortages, the region's water supply faces increased pressure. The UT WaterHub plans to address this challenge by recycling water for campus energy operations, helping preserve water resources for both the university and local communities.

The 9,600-square-foot water treatment facility will use an innovative filtration approach. To reduce reliance on expensive machinery and chemicals, the system uses plants to naturally filter water and gravity to pull it in the direction it needs to go. Used water will be gathered from a new collection point near the Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium and transported to the WaterHub, located in the heart of the engineering district. The facility's design includes a greenhouse viewable to the public, serving as an interactive learning space.

Beyond water conservation, the facility is designed to protect the university against extreme weather events like winter storms. This new initiative will create a reliable backup water supply while decreasing university water usage, and will even reduce wastewater sent to the city by up to 70 percent.

H2O Innovation, UT’s collaborator in this project, specializes in water solutions, helping organizations manage their water efficiently.

"By combining cutting-edge technology with our innovative financing approach, we’re making it easier for organizations to adopt sustainable water practices that benefit both their bottom line and the environment, paving a step forward in water positivity,” said H2O Innovation president and CEO Frédéric Dugré in a press release.

The university expects significant cost savings with this project, since it won't have to spend as much on buying water from the city or paying fees to dispose of used water. Over the next several years, this could add up to millions of dollars.

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A version of this story originally appeared on our sister site, CultureMap Austin.

Report: Texas solar power, battery storage helped stabilize grid in summer 2024, but challenges remain

by the numbers

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that solar power and battery storage capacity helped stabilize Texas’ electric grid last summer.

Between June 1 and Aug. 31, solar power met nearly 25 percent of midday electricity demand within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid. Rising solar and battery output in ERCOT assisted Texans during a summer of triple-digit heat and record load demands, but the report fears that the state’s power load will be “pushed to its limits” soon.

The report examined how the grid performed during more demanding hours. At peak times, between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. in the summer of 2024, solar output averaged nearly 17,000 megawatts compared with 12,000 megawatts during those hours in the previous year. Between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m., discharge from battery facilities averaged 714 megawatts in 2024 after averaging 238 megawatts for those hours in 2023. Solar and battery output have continued to grow since then, according to the report.

“Batteries made a meaningful contribution to what those shoulder periods look like and how much scarcity we get into during these peak events,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said at a board of directors conference call.

Increases in capacity from solar and battery-storage power in 2024 also eclipsed those of 2023. In 2023 ECOT added 4,570 megawatts of solar, compared to adding nearly 9,700 megawatts in 2024. Growth in battery storage capacity also increased from about 1,500 megawatts added in 2023 to more than 4,000 megawatts added in 2024. Natural gas capacity also saw increases while wind capacity dropped by about 50 percent.

Texas’ installation of utility-scale solar surpassed California’s in the spring of last year, and jumped from 1,900 megawatts in 2019 to over 20,000 megawatts in 2024 with solar meeting about 50 percent of Texas' peak power demand during some days.

While the numbers are encouraging, the report states that there could be future challenges, as more generating capacity will be required due to data center construction and broader electrification trends. The development of generating more capacity will rely on multiple factors like price signals and market conditions that invite more baseload and dispatchable generating capacity, which includes longer-duration batteries, and investment in power purchase agreements and other power arrangements by large-scale consumers, according to the report.

Additionally, peak demand during winter freezes presents challenges not seen in the summer. For example, in colder months, peak electricity demand often occurs in the early morning before solar energy is available, and it predicts that current battery storage may be insufficient to meet the demand. The analysis indicated a 50% chance of rolling outages during a cold snap similar to December 2022 and an 80% chance if conditions mirror the February 2021 deep freeze at the grid’s current state.

The report also claimed that ERCOT’s energy-only market design and new incentive structures, such as the Texas Energy Fund, do not appear to be enough to meet the predicted future magnitude and speed of load growth.

Read the full report here.