hiccups in hydrogen

Panel: Experts weigh in on what's holding hydrogen development back​ in Houston and beyond

It's all about the money — or lack thereof. Photo by Natalie Harms/EnergyCapital

Houston has a ton of potential to be a major hub for hydrogen — but who's to pick up the tab on the progress that is needed to advance the alternative energy source? A panel at a recent event sat down to talk it out.

The Hydrogen Technology Expo, a two-day conference at NRG Center last week, brought in dozens of companies and hundreds of attendees to Houston to discuss the most pressing topics of the energy transition. One panel — moderated by Brett Perlman, CEO of the Center for Houston's Future — looked specifically at the challenges for the hydrogen economy.

The biggest challenge: Money. Perlman starts the conversation asking panelists if Wall Street is showing up to back hydrogen projects.

"Everyone talks about investing in hydrogen, and very few people actually do it," says Sean Shafer, managing partner of Energy and Industrial Advisor Partners, "outside of the big strategics and some technology plays — electrolyzers, fuel cells, and stuff like that."

Timing is an issue, adds Brian Hodges, partner at Aurum Capital Connect. Hodges, who previously was at Bank of America, saw first hand the money that a bank was willing to put into clean energy and decarbonization. But, when presenting options to deploy this funding, Hodges hears a familiar refrain — it's too early, it's too small, the pieces aren't in place yet.

"There is a gigantic pool of capital out there — whether its traditional banks, financial institutions, sovereign wealth funds," he says. "Literally everyone and their dog is interested in the space. ... We're right on the cusp of this, but when you look at Europe, they're 10 years ahead of us."

And that decade of experience is what attracts more funding, Hodges says. And it's not just Europe when it comes to markets getting ahead. Texas can't compete with the likes of California, says Roxana Bekemohammadi, founder and executive director of US Hydrogen Alliance, especially when it comes to policy. The state has had legislation addressing zero-emission vehicles since 1989.

"California policies are unique beasts, and I like to explain this because it's really important when I talk to other state legislators," Bekemohammadi says, explaining that the state mandates action and has larger teams to put policy into place. "You're looking at such a mature industry, if you want to call it an industry, but it's really a policy institution."

The panelists agree on the obstacle of policy. Tanya Peacock, managing director of EcoEngineers, works directly with project developers looking for financing and investment funds and financiers looking for projects.

"Everybody is waiting for the guidance on the IRA 45V Production Tax Credit," she says. "I think that's really the game changer for the industry, but the uncertainty around how the credit is going to be implemented is what's holding back a lot of the investment at the moment."

Texas doesn't have state incentives, Shafer points out, but the work is easy to get done with the workforce in the region, so that's also a missed opportunity. Some other factors, he adds, include offtake and lack of debt providers. He says the demand hasn't been established yet to provide a good opportunity for offtake negotiations — it's a chicken and egg problem. Meanwhile, project finance tends to have a debt provider involved, but there aren't providers willing to underwrite debt hydrogen projects.

"One of the other big things is there seems to be a lack of middle capital to get smaller companies to get their projects more backed," Shafer continues his list. "People want to write the big checks. They don't want to write the small checks — and I think one of the reasons is they don't want to lose all their capital. There's no downside protection in this industry."

Perlman, who addressed the crowd in a presentation about Texas as a hydrogen hub earlier in the day, remains bullish on the city's future in the space. Last year, CHF and several other organizations worked together to create the plan for the HyVelocity Hub — and a pitch to receive U.S. Department of Energy Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub funding to make it a reality.

"What we want to do in Texas is jumpstart the market," Perlman says, adding that HyVelocity can help accomplish this goal. "This market can happen in Texas because we are the right place with the right resources. ... What we need to do as an industry is accelerate development."

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A View From HETI

ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said during the company’s recent second-quarter earnings call that the company is "concerned about the development of a broader market" for its low-carbon hydrogen plant in Baytown. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Spring-based ExxonMobil, the country’s largest oil and gas company, might delay or cancel what would be the world’s largest low-carbon hydrogen plant due to a significant change in federal law. The project carries a $7 billion price tag.

The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act created a new 10-year incentive, the 45V tax credit, for production of clean hydrogen. But under President Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," the window for starting construction of low-carbon hydrogen projects that qualify for the tax credit has narrowed. The Inflation Reduction Act mandated that construction start by 2033. But the Big Beautiful Bill switched the construction start time to early 2028.

“While our project can meet this timeline, we’re concerned about the development of a broader market, which is critical to transition from government incentives,” ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said during the company’s recent second-quarter earnings call.

Woods said ExxonMobil is working to determine whether a combination of the 45Q tax credit for carbon capture projects and the revised 45V tax credit will help pave the way for a “broader” low-carbon hydrogen market.

“If we can’t see an eventual path to a market-driven business, we won’t move forward with the [Baytown] project,” Woods said.

“We knew that helping to establish a brand-new product and a brand-new market initially driven by government policy would not be easy or advance in a straight line,” he added.

Woods said ExxonMobil is trying to nail down sales contracts connected to the project, including exports of ammonia to Asia and Europe and sales of hydrogen in the U.S.

ExxonMobil announced in 2022 that it would build the low-carbon hydrogen plant at its refining and petrochemical complex in Baytown. The company has said the plant is slated to go online in 2027 and 2028.

As it stands now, ExxonMobil wants the Baytown plant to produce up to 1 billion cubic feet of hydrogen per day made from natural gas, and capture and store more than 98 percent of the associated carbon dioxide. The company has said the project could store as much as 10 million metric tons of CO2 per year.

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