What lies ahead over the next year? Photo via Getty Images

Oil prices are once again riding the waves of geopolitics. Uncertainty remains a key factor shaping global energy trends.

As of June 25, 2025, U.S. gas prices were averaging around $3.22 per gallon, well below last summer’s levels and certainly not near any recent high. Meanwhile, Brent crude is trading near $68 per barrel, though analysts warn that renewed escalation especially involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $90 or even $100. Trump’s recent comments that China may continue purchasing Iranian oil add yet another layer of geopolitical complexity.

So how should we think about the state of the oil market and what lies ahead over the next year?

That question was explored on the latest episode of The Energy Forum with experts Skip York and Abhi Rajendran, who both bring deep experience in analyzing global oil dynamics.

“About 20% of the world’s oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Skip. “When conflict looms, even the perception of disruption can move the market $5 a barrel or more.”

This is exactly what we saw recently: a market reacting not just to actual supply and demand, but to perceived risk. And that risk is compounding existing challenges, where global demand remains steady, but supply has been slow to respond.

Abhi noted that U.S. shale production has been flat so far this year, and that given the market’s volatility, it’s becoming harder to stay short on oil. In his view, a higher price floor may be taking hold, with longer-lasting upward pressure likely if current dynamics continue.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is signaling supply increases, but actual delivery has underwhelmed. Add in record-breaking summer heat in the Middle East, pulling up seasonal demand, and it’s easy to see why both experts foresee a return to the $70–$80 range, even without a major shock.

Longer-term, structural changes in China’s energy mix are starting to reshape demand patterns globally. Diesel and gasoline may have peaked, while petrochemical feedstock growth continues.

Skip noted that China has chosen to expand mobility through “electrons, not molecules,” a reference to electric vehicles over conventional fuels. He pointed out that EVs now account for over 50% of monthly vehicle sales, a signal of a longer-term shift in China’s energy demand.

But geopolitical context matters as much as market math. In his recent policy brief, Jim Krane points out that Trump’s potential return to a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran is no longer guaranteed strong support from Gulf allies.

Jim points out that Saudi and Emirati leaders are taking a more cautious approach this time, worried that another clash with Iran could deter investors and disrupt progress on Vision 2030. Past attacks and regional instability continue to shape their more restrained approach.

And Iran, for its part, has evolved. The “dark fleet” of sanctions-evasion tankers has expanded, and exports are booming up to 2 million barrels per day, mostly to China. Disruption won’t be as simple as targeting a single export terminal anymore, with infrastructure like the Jask terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Where do we go from here?

Skip suggests we may see prices drift upward through 2026 as OPEC+ runs out of spare capacity and U.S. shale declines. Abhi is even more bullish, seeing potential for a quicker climb if demand strengthens and supply falters.

We’re entering a phase where geopolitical missteps, whether in Tehran, Beijing, or Washington, can have outsized impacts. Market fundamentals matter, but political risk is the wildcard that could rewrite the price deck overnight.

As these dynamics continue to evolve, one thing is clear: energy policy, diplomacy, and investment strategy must be strategically coordinated to manage risk and maintain market stability. The stakes for global markets are simply too high for misalignment.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

The CERAWeek by S&P Global 2024 programming will reflect on the reality of the energy transition, including its progress in different regions and across industries, technologies, and politics. Photo by Natalie Harms/InnovationMap

CERAWeek 2024 returns to Houston to feature thought leadership on energy transition

coming soon

For the 42nd time, CERAWeek is convening energy leaders from around the world for a conference the week of March 18 — and the action will all take place in downtown Houston.

CERAWeek by S&P Global 2024, with its theme of "Multidimensional Energy Transition: Markets, climate, technology and geopolitics," will zero in on the world's journey to zero-carbon, specifically exploring "strategies for a multidimensional, multispeed and multifuel energy transition," according to a news release. The programming will reflect on the reality of the energy transition, including its progress in different regions and across industries, technologies, and politics.

This year, the event is chaired by Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and author of The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations.

“The increasing focus on energy transition following COP28 coincides with a growing realization of just how complex the road ahead will be,” Yergin says in the release. “Expectations of a linear path to Net-zero are giving way to recognition that this will be a multidimensional energy transition—one that is inclusive of different situations in different parts of the world and takes into account energy security and affordability.

"The reality of a multispeed transition presents both opportunities and challenges," he continues. "Meeting those challenges, and realizing the promise, of the new energy future will be the focus of the world’s energy leaders at CERAWeek 2024 in Houston.”

CERAWeek's key themes this year tackle everything from power markets and minerals to geopolitics and tech and innovation.

The CERAWeek Innovation Agora track, which is the program's deeper dive into technology and innovation will feature thought leadership "ranging across AI, decarbonization, low carbon fuels, cybersecurity, hydrogen, nuclear, mining and minerals, mobility, automation, and more," per the release.

Additionally, the “Agora Hubs,” which are dedicated areas focused on climate, hydrogen, and carbon, have returned to an expanded capacity.

The full list of CERAWeek 2024 speakers is available online, as is registration.

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Houston's PowerBridge partners on 2GW Texas AI data center campus

data center venture

Houston-based PowerBridge has formed a joint venture with Denver-based Liberty Energy to develop large-scale data center campuses.

The joint venture’s initial focus will be PowerBridge’s Alpha Digital Campus, a 2-gigawatt data center operation planned for West Texas. PowerBridge sets up data center campuses to support AI and cloud computing. Liberty is an energy company whose Liberty Power Innovations subsidiary offers distributed power and energy storage services.

Houston-based investment firm Five Point Infrastructure LLC established PowerBridge last year, committing up to $1 billion in equity. Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported Five Point is trying to raise $2.5 billion for a new fund targeting water management projects, natural gas treatment systems and data center sites.

Through Five Point subsidiary LandBridge, PowerBridge enjoys access to more than 275,000 acres for infrastructure development as well as low-cost natural gas.

The first phase of PowerBridge’s West Texas campus is expected to offer more than 300 megawatts of generation capacity, with the potential to add more capacity over time. The campus is scheduled to start delivering power in the fourth quarter of 2027.

“By aligning our powered-campus development assets with Liberty’s comprehensive power services and operational expertise, we are creating a model that can be scaled across future gigawatt-scale powered data center campuses in West Texas,” Alex Hernandez, founder and CEO of PowerBridge, said in a release.

Before joining PowerBridge in 2025, Hernandez led Cumulus Data and Talen Energy Corp., a provider of power and energy infrastructure. Amazon Web Services bought Cumulus Data, a subsidiary of Houston-based Talen, in 2024 for $650 million. Cumulus develops nuclear-powered data centers.

Hernandez sits on the board of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which manages about 90 percent of the state’s electrical load.

Liberty recently announced a partnership with Houston-based energy technology company SLB to support the expansion of data center capacity.

Energy AI startup chooses Houston for first U.S. office after $20M raise

welcome to houston

London-based AI firm Applied Computing has announced a $20 million Series A round and a new office in Houston.

The new Bayou City office is Applied Computing’s first in the United States and part of its North American expansion. The company is known for its Orbital AI platform, which is tailored for energy operations.

The funding round was led by Houston-based KBR Inc., with participation from San Francisco-based Databricks Ventures. KBR’s investment was first announced in March.

KBR and Applied Computing have also entered into a multi-year agreement to deliver exclusive AI products for the energy sector. KBR already has integrated Orbital into its INSITE 3.0 platform for energy projects, and is also using the product for ammonia production.

Applied Computing’s Orbital platform combines physics-grounded intelligence with models across chemical engineering, time-series forecasting and language, according to the company. The system analyzes sensor readings and can recognize a facility’s equipment constraints and operator activity. The platform can also allow technicians to run simulations of how a change to a facility could affect the rest of its operations.

According to TechCrunch, Applied Computing will use the $20 million to further explore projects and deployments with the energy sector, hire engineering and research positions, and continue to expand internationally, potentially into the Middle East.

The company is also working on deals with a major U.S. stream operator, TechCrunch reports. And Applied Computing shared on LinkedIn that it plans to announce its first partnership with a major European oil company in the coming weeks.

“Yesterday we showed Orbital live in deployments at our demo day at the Energy Institute in London,” Callum Adamson, CEO and co-founder of Applied Computing, posted on LinkedIn on July 16. “Today, we're announcing the capital to scale it globally as well as the launch of our new offices in Houston and Bangalore. In the weeks following, there will be more announcements on our progress, partnerships and deployments.”

The company opened its Bangalore offices in December.

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.com.

Automakers enter the energy space with vehicles offering backup power

Power Boost

Winter Storm Uri, the multiday freeze that slammed Texas in February 2021 and pummeled the state's power grid, has been on Kenneth Kovar's mind ever since. Though the resident of New Braunfels didn't lose power at the time, he wasn't able to run his septic tank — it is independent from local systems. He had to fill his toilets with water from his backyard pool.

So when Kovar, 64, bought a Ford F-150 last fall, his hope was to be better prepared for any new crisis.

“I was interested in trying to find some sort of power backup situation,” he said.

Now, Kovar has a setup from Ford that allows drivers of certain F-150 models to plug their vehicle directly into their electric meter to power parts of their home during an outage.

It is the latest example of automakers broadly adapting their electrification technologies to the home energy business, especially as demand on the grid increases and sales of electric vehicles slow. Car companies are looking to leverage their multibillion dollar EV investments to tap into a promising market in vehicle, home and grid technology, both for backup power and for supporting electrical grid resiliency.

“They’re trying to look for other businesses that they might sell into,” said Parth Vaishnav, assistant professor of sustainable systems at the University of Michigan.

Ford's latest connects F-150 drivers to their meter

Drivers of the F-150 PowerBoost hybrid and F-150 Lightning electric pickup trucks can now plug in a one-foot long adapter to a 240-volt outlet onboard. That adapter — which Ford made with company Global Power Products — makes the vehicle compatible to plug into a longer, separate cable. That cable connects to a transfer switch installed directly on one's electric meter.

Through the adapter and cable series, homeowners can connect their vehicle essentially right to their home’s breaker box. The homeowner simply turns on and off which breaker switches they want for which devices they want powered.

“The way we think about it, especially for customers who already have a compatible vehicle is, you already own the power source, it’s in your driveway,” said Amanda Roraff, Ford's grid and energy services business acceleration lead.

The Lightning might provide power for two to three days, depending on what home devices are being used, and the PowerBoost Hybrid, up to five days on a single tank of gas.

The automaker says its solution is a less expensive way to supply backup power. Conventional, diesel-powered portable generators and full-home standby setups require expensive installation, costing several thousands of dollars. This solution, which also requires professional installation at the meter, starts around $1,100.

The setup only applies to about 200,000 vehicles so far, and it is also exclusively for outages. Ford also offers its Home Integration System for bidirectionality, sending power both from the vehicle to the home and from the home to the vehicle, while also being able to feed the grid.

Other automakers are boosting their energy solutions

Over 630,000 U.S. vehicles already have this functionality, estimates say, and automakers are rapidly expanding their available options with the goal of full vehicle-to-grid support in the long run.

South Korean auto brand Kia and Wallbox, an EV charging company, have teamed up so that drivers of eligible compatible vehicles can have home power backup during outages or during periods of high demand, to cut their utility use. They can send power back to the grid.

Tesla’s technology is similar — allowing drivers of equipped vehicles to connect to their home using additional Tesla hardware. The Cybertruck provides full vehicle-to-home capability, where other Tesla models can only connect to and power specific devices or appliances.

General Motors is also in the energy space.

A recent partnership with WeaveGrid, for instance, allows homeowners who drive certain GM EVs — and have the automaker’s home system and a proper grid interconnection — to enroll in some grid reliability utility programs. Once an outage is detected, GM’s vehicle-to-home tech has the capability to disconnect one's home from the grid and start supplying power from their GM EV.

“If you can imagine the future as we go forward, it's having the ability — now that we have this single platform — that allows our customer to experience our system,” said Wade Sheffer, vice president of GM energy, “but also can have the full control of the energy.”

The capability is an important lifeline amid EV sales slowdown

Not only is this business critical amid growing grid demand and increasing power outages, experts say automakers need to pivot with the EV market less active under current U.S. federal policy. Pure EV sales in the U.S. year-over-year are down 23.8%, according to a July Cox Automotive report on the first half of 2026. This demonstrates what an asset that EV and hybrid ownership can be.

The tech is not without challenges.

On the industry side, these systems have to undergo third-party testing to ensure they meet safety standards, and the vehicle and the charger need to be programmed to communicate. It also requires the approval of the utility where the capability is being used. It could take years to get an interconnect agreement.

On the customer side, homeowners need to understand their vehicles' abilities and how to self-manage their system. It also just brings another generator of power into the home mix.

Still, experts see opportunity, especially with interest in EV sales high outside of the U.S.

“We already know during an outage, its impact, providing electricity to the home,” said Scott Samuelsen, engineering professor emeritus at the University of California, Irvine. “This is going to become very, very popular.”