What lies ahead over the next year? Photo via Getty Images

Oil prices are once again riding the waves of geopolitics. Uncertainty remains a key factor shaping global energy trends.

As of June 25, 2025, U.S. gas prices were averaging around $3.22 per gallon, well below last summer’s levels and certainly not near any recent high. Meanwhile, Brent crude is trading near $68 per barrel, though analysts warn that renewed escalation especially involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $90 or even $100. Trump’s recent comments that China may continue purchasing Iranian oil add yet another layer of geopolitical complexity.

So how should we think about the state of the oil market and what lies ahead over the next year?

That question was explored on the latest episode of The Energy Forum with experts Skip York and Abhi Rajendran, who both bring deep experience in analyzing global oil dynamics.

“About 20% of the world’s oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Skip. “When conflict looms, even the perception of disruption can move the market $5 a barrel or more.”

This is exactly what we saw recently: a market reacting not just to actual supply and demand, but to perceived risk. And that risk is compounding existing challenges, where global demand remains steady, but supply has been slow to respond.

Abhi noted that U.S. shale production has been flat so far this year, and that given the market’s volatility, it’s becoming harder to stay short on oil. In his view, a higher price floor may be taking hold, with longer-lasting upward pressure likely if current dynamics continue.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is signaling supply increases, but actual delivery has underwhelmed. Add in record-breaking summer heat in the Middle East, pulling up seasonal demand, and it’s easy to see why both experts foresee a return to the $70–$80 range, even without a major shock.

Longer-term, structural changes in China’s energy mix are starting to reshape demand patterns globally. Diesel and gasoline may have peaked, while petrochemical feedstock growth continues.

Skip noted that China has chosen to expand mobility through “electrons, not molecules,” a reference to electric vehicles over conventional fuels. He pointed out that EVs now account for over 50% of monthly vehicle sales, a signal of a longer-term shift in China’s energy demand.

But geopolitical context matters as much as market math. In his recent policy brief, Jim Krane points out that Trump’s potential return to a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran is no longer guaranteed strong support from Gulf allies.

Jim points out that Saudi and Emirati leaders are taking a more cautious approach this time, worried that another clash with Iran could deter investors and disrupt progress on Vision 2030. Past attacks and regional instability continue to shape their more restrained approach.

And Iran, for its part, has evolved. The “dark fleet” of sanctions-evasion tankers has expanded, and exports are booming up to 2 million barrels per day, mostly to China. Disruption won’t be as simple as targeting a single export terminal anymore, with infrastructure like the Jask terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Where do we go from here?

Skip suggests we may see prices drift upward through 2026 as OPEC+ runs out of spare capacity and U.S. shale declines. Abhi is even more bullish, seeing potential for a quicker climb if demand strengthens and supply falters.

We’re entering a phase where geopolitical missteps, whether in Tehran, Beijing, or Washington, can have outsized impacts. Market fundamentals matter, but political risk is the wildcard that could rewrite the price deck overnight.

As these dynamics continue to evolve, one thing is clear: energy policy, diplomacy, and investment strategy must be strategically coordinated to manage risk and maintain market stability. The stakes for global markets are simply too high for misalignment.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

The CERAWeek by S&P Global 2024 programming will reflect on the reality of the energy transition, including its progress in different regions and across industries, technologies, and politics. Photo by Natalie Harms/InnovationMap

CERAWeek 2024 returns to Houston to feature thought leadership on energy transition

coming soon

For the 42nd time, CERAWeek is convening energy leaders from around the world for a conference the week of March 18 — and the action will all take place in downtown Houston.

CERAWeek by S&P Global 2024, with its theme of "Multidimensional Energy Transition: Markets, climate, technology and geopolitics," will zero in on the world's journey to zero-carbon, specifically exploring "strategies for a multidimensional, multispeed and multifuel energy transition," according to a news release. The programming will reflect on the reality of the energy transition, including its progress in different regions and across industries, technologies, and politics.

This year, the event is chaired by Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and author of The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations.

“The increasing focus on energy transition following COP28 coincides with a growing realization of just how complex the road ahead will be,” Yergin says in the release. “Expectations of a linear path to Net-zero are giving way to recognition that this will be a multidimensional energy transition—one that is inclusive of different situations in different parts of the world and takes into account energy security and affordability.

"The reality of a multispeed transition presents both opportunities and challenges," he continues. "Meeting those challenges, and realizing the promise, of the new energy future will be the focus of the world’s energy leaders at CERAWeek 2024 in Houston.”

CERAWeek's key themes this year tackle everything from power markets and minerals to geopolitics and tech and innovation.

The CERAWeek Innovation Agora track, which is the program's deeper dive into technology and innovation will feature thought leadership "ranging across AI, decarbonization, low carbon fuels, cybersecurity, hydrogen, nuclear, mining and minerals, mobility, automation, and more," per the release.

Additionally, the “Agora Hubs,” which are dedicated areas focused on climate, hydrogen, and carbon, have returned to an expanded capacity.

The full list of CERAWeek 2024 speakers is available online, as is registration.

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Houston robotics company unveils extreme-temperature tank robot

hot new robot

Houston- and Boston-based Square Robot Inc.'s newest tank inspection robot is commercially available and certified to operate at extreme temperatures.

The new robot, known as the SR-3HT, can operate from 14°F to 131°F, representing a broader temperature range than previous models in the company's portfolio. According to the company, its previous temperature range reached 32°F to 104°F.

The new robot has received the NEC/CEC Class I Division 2 (C1D2) certification from FM Approvals, allowing it to operate safely in hazardous locations and to perform on-stream inspections of aboveground storage tanks containing products stored at elevated temperatures.

“Our engineering team developed the SR-3HT in response to significant client demand in both the U.S. and international markets. We frequently encounter higher temperatures due to both elevated process temperatures and high ambient temperatures, especially in the hotter regions of the world, such as the Middle East," David Lamont, CEO of Square Robot, said in a news release. "The SR-3HT employs both active and passive cooling technology, greatly expanding our operating envelope. A great job done (again) by our engineers delivering world-leading technology in record time.”

The company's SR-3 submersible robot and Side Launcher received certifications earlier this year. They became commercially available in 2023, after completing initial milestone testing in partnership with ExxonMobil, according to Square Robot.

The company closed a $13 million series B round in December, which it said it would put toward international expansion in Europe and the Middle East.

Square Robot launched its Houston office in 2019. Its autonomous, submersible robots are used for storage tank inspections and eliminate the need for humans to enter dangerous and toxic environments.

Houston oil giant ConocoPhillips will lay off up to 25% of workforce

Workforce News

Oil giant ConocoPhillips is planning to lay off up to a quarter of its workforce, amounting to thousands of jobs, as part of broader efforts from the company to cut costs.

A spokesperson for ConocoPhillips confirmed the layoffs on Wednesday, September 3, noting that 20% to 25% of the company's employees and contractors would be impacted worldwide. ConocoPhillips currently has a global headcount of about 13,000 — meaning that the cuts would impact between 2,600 and 3,250 workers.

“We are always looking at how we can be more efficient with the resources we have,” a ConocoPhillips' spokesperson said via email, adding that the company expects the “majority of these reductions” to take place before the end of 2025.

ConocoPhillips' shares fell 4.3% last week. The Houston-based company's stock now sits at under $95 per share, down nearly 14% from a year ago.

News of the coming layoffs was first reported by Reuters, with anonymous sources telling the outlet that CEO Ryan Lance detailed the plans in a video message earlier Wednesday. In that video, Reuters reported, Lance said the company needed “fewer roles” while he cited rising costs.

Last month, ConocoPhillips reported second-quarter earnings of $1.97 billion. That beat Wall Street expectations, but was down from the nearly $2.33 billion the company reported for the same period last year.

In its latest earnings, reported on August 7, ConocoPhillips continued to point to cost cutting efforts — noting that it had identified more than $1 billion in cost reductions and margin optimization. The company also said it had agreed to sell its Anadarko Basin assets for $1.3 billion.

Engie launches next-generation data center development in Texas

coming soon

Houston-based Engie North America has entered into an agreement with Wyoming-based Prometheus Hyperscale to develop liquid-cooled data centers at select renewable and battery storage energy facilities along Texas’ I-35 corridor. Its first AI-ready data center compute capacity sites are expected to go live in 2026.

“By leveraging our robust portfolio of wind, solar, and battery storage assets — combined with our commercial and industrial supply capabilities and deep trading expertise — we're providing integrated energy solutions that support scalable, resilient, and sustainable infrastructure," David Carroll, chief renewables officer and SVP of ENGIE North America, said in a news release.

Prometheus plans to use its high-efficiency, liquid-cooled data center infrastructure in conjunction with ENGIE's renewable and battery storage assets. Both companies believe they can meet the growing demand for reliable, sustainable compute capacity, which would support AI and other more demanding workloads.

"Prometheus is committed to developing sustainable, next-generation digital infrastructure for AI," Bernard Looney, chairman of Prometheus Hyperscale, said in the release. "We cannot do this alone—ENGIE's existing assets and expertise as a major player in the global energy transition make them a perfect partner as we work to build data centers that meet market needs today and tomorrow."

On-site power generation provider Conduit Power will assist Prometheus for near-term bridging and back-up solutions, and help tenants to offset project-related carbon emissions through established market-based mechanisms.

More locations are being planned for 2027 and beyond.

"Our collaboration with Prometheus demonstrates our shared approach to finding innovative approaches to developing, building and operating projects that solve real-world challenges,” Carroll added in the release.