A University of Houston team looked into what areas in Houston had the highest impact on emissions and how certain meteorological factors play into ozone formation. Photo via UH.edu

A team of researchers at the University of Houston are using machine learning to help guide pollution fighting strategies.

As reported in the journal Environmental Pollution last month, the team used the SHAP algorithm of machine learning (a game theory approach) and the Positive Matrix Factorization to pinpoint what areas in Houston had the highest impact on emissions and how certain meteorological factors play into ozone formation.

The paper was authored by Delaney Nelson, a doctoral student at the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences of UH, and Yunsoo Choi, corresponding author and professor of atmospheric chemistry, AI deep learning, air quality modeling and satellite remote sensing.

The team's research closely tracked nitrogen-based compound and volatile organic compound measurements from Texas Commission on Environmental Quality's monitoring stations in the Houston area. After importing measurements from The Lynchburg Ferry station in Houston's ship channel and the urban Milby Park station, the machine learning and SHAP analysis showed a chemically definitive difference between the two areas.

For example, at the industrial station, the most impactful sources of pollution were from oil and gas flaring/production. At the urban site n_decane and industrial emissions/evaporation had the most impact on ozone.

According to Nelson and Choi, this shows that the machine learning and SHAP analysis approach can be used to tailor more precise air quality management strategies in different areas based on the site's unique characteristics.

“Once we know the specific emission sources and factors, we can develop targeted strategies to reduce emissions, which will in turn reduce ozone in the air and make it healthier for everyone," Choi said in a statement.

“Pollution is a critical issue in Houston, where you have extreme high heat and high concentration of ozone in the summers. The types of insights we got are very useful information for the local community to develop effective policies. That’s why we put our time, effort and technological expertise into this project," he continued.

Next the team envisions applying their approach in different cities and across the country.

“Austin, San Antonio and Dallas all have different characteristics, so I expect (volatile organic compound) sources will also be different,” Choi said. “Identifying VOC sources in different cities is very important because each city should have its own unique pollution fighting strategy.”

This summer, the City of Houston released an updated report on its major strategies to combat climate change and build a more resilient future for its residents.

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Syzygy inks long-term offtake agreement for first commercial SAF plant

fuel deal

Houston-based Syzygy Plasmonics has secured a six-year official offtake agreement for the entire production volume of its first commercial-scale biogas-to-sustainable aviation fuel project in Uruguay, known as NovaSAF-1.

SP Developments Uruguay S.A., a subsidiary of Syzygy, entered into the agreement with Singapore-based commodity company Trafigura, according to a news release. There is also an option for Trafigura to purchase additional volumes from future Syzygy projects.

The first deliveries from the landmark SAF facility are expected in 2028.

“This agreement marks a critical step in our journey toward commercial-scale impact and disrupting the SAF market,” Trevor Best, CEO of Syzygy Plasmonics, said in the news release. “With a signed offtake agreement from a global leader like Trafigura, and after having successfully completed FEED engineering in December, we're now ready to secure financing for the construction of NovaSAF-1 and move our technology from potential into production."

The NovaSAF-1 project will be located in Durazno, Uruguay. The facility will be the world's first electrified biogas-to-SAF facility producing renewable and advanced compliant SAF. Syzygy estimates that the project will produce over 350,000 gallons of SAF annually. The facility is expected to produce SAF with at least an 80 percent reduction in carbon intensity compared to Jet A fuel.

It’s backed by Uruguay’s largest dairy and agri-energy operations, Estancias del Lago. It will also work with Houston-based Velocys, which will provide Fischer-Tropsch technology for the project. Fischer-Tropsch technology converts synthesis gas into liquid hydrocarbons, which is key for producing synthetic fuels like SAF.

ERCOT to capture big share of U.S. solar power growth through 2027

solar growth

Much of the country’s growth in utility-scale solar power generation will happen in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to a new forecast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of 2027. That would be an increase of 89 percent.

In tandem with the rapid embrace of solar power, EIA anticipates battery storage capacity for ERCOT will expand from 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027, or 147 percent.

EIA expects utility-scale solar to be the country’s fastest-growing source of power generation from 2025 to 2027. It anticipates that this source will climb from 290 billion kilowatt-hours last year to 424 billion kilowatt-hours next year, or 46 percent.

Based on EIA’s projections, ERCOT’s territory would account for one-fourth of the country’s utility-scale solar power generation by the end of next year.

“Solar power and energy storage are the fastest-growing grid technologies in Texas, and can be deployed more quickly than any other generation resource,” according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association. “In the wholesale market, solar and storage are increasing grid reliability, delivering consumer affordability, and driving tax revenue and income streams into rural Texas.”