Oil markets on edge: Geopolitics, supply risks, and what comes next

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What lies ahead over the next year? Photo via Getty Images

Oil prices are once again riding the waves of geopolitics. Uncertainty remains a key factor shaping global energy trends.

As of June 25, 2025, U.S. gas prices were averaging around $3.22 per gallon, well below last summer’s levels and certainly not near any recent high. Meanwhile, Brent crude is trading near $68 per barrel, though analysts warn that renewed escalation especially involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $90 or even $100. Trump’s recent comments that China may continue purchasing Iranian oil add yet another layer of geopolitical complexity.

So how should we think about the state of the oil market and what lies ahead over the next year?

That question was explored on the latest episode of The Energy Forum with experts Skip York and Abhi Rajendran, who both bring deep experience in analyzing global oil dynamics.

“About 20% of the world’s oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Skip. “When conflict looms, even the perception of disruption can move the market $5 a barrel or more.”

This is exactly what we saw recently: a market reacting not just to actual supply and demand, but to perceived risk. And that risk is compounding existing challenges, where global demand remains steady, but supply has been slow to respond.

Abhi noted that U.S. shale production has been flat so far this year, and that given the market’s volatility, it’s becoming harder to stay short on oil. In his view, a higher price floor may be taking hold, with longer-lasting upward pressure likely if current dynamics continue.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is signaling supply increases, but actual delivery has underwhelmed. Add in record-breaking summer heat in the Middle East, pulling up seasonal demand, and it’s easy to see why both experts foresee a return to the $70–$80 range, even without a major shock.

Longer-term, structural changes in China’s energy mix are starting to reshape demand patterns globally. Diesel and gasoline may have peaked, while petrochemical feedstock growth continues.

Skip noted that China has chosen to expand mobility through “electrons, not molecules,” a reference to electric vehicles over conventional fuels. He pointed out that EVs now account for over 50% of monthly vehicle sales, a signal of a longer-term shift in China’s energy demand.

But geopolitical context matters as much as market math. In his recent policy brief, Jim Krane points out that Trump’s potential return to a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran is no longer guaranteed strong support from Gulf allies.

Jim points out that Saudi and Emirati leaders are taking a more cautious approach this time, worried that another clash with Iran could deter investors and disrupt progress on Vision 2030. Past attacks and regional instability continue to shape their more restrained approach.

And Iran, for its part, has evolved. The “dark fleet” of sanctions-evasion tankers has expanded, and exports are booming up to 2 million barrels per day, mostly to China. Disruption won’t be as simple as targeting a single export terminal anymore, with infrastructure like the Jask terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Where do we go from here?

Skip suggests we may see prices drift upward through 2026 as OPEC+ runs out of spare capacity and U.S. shale declines. Abhi is even more bullish, seeing potential for a quicker climb if demand strengthens and supply falters.

We’re entering a phase where geopolitical missteps, whether in Tehran, Beijing, or Washington, can have outsized impacts. Market fundamentals matter, but political risk is the wildcard that could rewrite the price deck overnight.

As these dynamics continue to evolve, one thing is clear: energy policy, diplomacy, and investment strategy must be strategically coordinated to manage risk and maintain market stability. The stakes for global markets are simply too high for misalignment.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

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Texas Gov. Abbott broadens crackdown on data centers by halting all permits

data center crackdown

Responding to public outcry, Gov. Greg Abbott has stepped up his campaign against data centers by temporarily halting approval of environmental permits for data center projects.

This and previous moves by Abbott essentially amount to a temporary freeze on the development of new data centers in Texas. His actions come at a time when Texas’ stature as a data center hub has been soaring.

On Monday, Abbott directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to stop issuing permits for data center developments until the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and Public Utility Commission of Texas complete their review of projects seeking power grid connections.

With regulatory reviews underway and environmental permitting now frozen, state regulators currently cannot approve or deny requests from data center developers, Abbott said.

In a letter to the environmental quality commission’s executive director, Kelly Keel, Abbott said this directive is “consistent with my whole-of-government approach to ensure Texans’ natural resources and way of life are protected.”

Abbott previously ordered the Texas Water Development Board to require data centers to meet reporting requirements for water use. He also told the board to impose penalties for failure to comply with those requirements and to collaborate with ERCOT on its review.

Abbott launched his crackdown on data centers in August by ordering the Public Utility Commission and ERCOT to review data center projects in Texas. The audits will examine all data centers in the queue for interconnections before any more projects can move forward. Interconnections enable data centers to share power, data and computing resources.

In calling for those audits, Abbott cited concerns over data centers’ use of water and electricity, and the centers’ effect on infrastructure expenses and consumers’ utility rates.

“Simply put, Texans must come first,” the governor said.

During next year’s legislation session, Abbott will push for the elimination of state financial incentives for data center projects.

Ed Hirs, an energy fellow ⁠at the University of Houston, told Reuters that Abbott was backtracking on “his earlier pronouncements about data centers leading to lower electricity prices.”

Abbott’s actions come amid growing public backlash over data centers. A recent University of Houston survey found that nearly 63 percent of Houston-area residents opposed construction of a data center within a mile of their home.

Only 8 of 160 utility companies in Texas have filed wildfire response plans

Utility News

Only eight of 160 utility companies that operate in fire-prone areas of Texas have complied with a law that helps mitigate wildfires, lawmakers recently learned. The revelation comes on the heels of a chaotic wildfire season that has continued through the summer.

Lawmakers learned about the slow progress last week during a House State Affairs committee hearing, led by Rep. Ken King, who led the charge on the new law last year. The law under House Bill 145 requires utility companies to file wildfire mitigation plans to the Public Utility Commission.

The plans must include emergency protocols in the case of a wildfire, utility operating plans during high-risk weather conditions, management of grass, shrubs and other vegetation in areas that are at risk of wildfires, inspection of poles and other electric equipment and identified areas of wildfire risks within a utility’s service territory.

King, a Republican from Canadian where much of the wildfire damage occurred during the Panhandle wildfires, pressed utility companies on the lack of compliance.

“I’m very, very disappointed with the industry,” King said. “I think it’s imperative for anybody that has not filed that report to realize January is coming. You will file that wildfire mitigation plan, and if you’re dragging your feet, there’s no excuse good enough for me.”

Last year, King filed a slew of bills in response to the devastating Smokehouse Creek wildfires in the Texas Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma in 2024. It was the largest wildfire in Texas history, started when a decayed power pole owned by Xcel Energy snapped and landed in dry grass.

It was one of a spate of fires, the majority of which were linked to electrical ignitions.

This year alone has been a very active wildfire season. Nim Kidd, chief for the Texas Division of Emergency Management, said the state has helped local governments respond to more than 1,200 fires since the start of the year. The Ross Fire, which burned for more than three weeks in North Texas, was finally contained by firefighters last week. It’s now the second largest wildfire in the region’s history.

Two wildfires have broken out on Craig Cowden’s Panhandle ranch this year, both ignited by electrical equipment used by oil and gas companies. Cowden extinguished them, before they could spread beyond 5 acres — a fraction of the 20,000 acres he lost to wildfires in 2024.

Cowden was one of many ranchers who worked with lawmakers last year to address the problem. Over the years, several fires have started on Cowden’s land, most of which were the result of faulty or damaged electrical equipment.

“It’s kind of discouraging that there hasn’t been more proactively submitting their wildfire plan,” Cowden said.

Slow progress

There has been progress since the bill was filed. According to King, six fires have been linked to electrical issues this year, a significant decrease from 80 in 2024.

Connie Corona, director at the PUC, explained the lag in filings to lawmakers, stating that on top of the eight who have submitted, four more have given the PUC a date for when they intend to file their plans. Corona said another 135 have indicated to the PUC they are in the process of preparing their plan. This leaves 13 who have not communicated their plans to the PUC.

“We’ve asked for a heads-up notice of when the utility plans to file, and try to ensure that meets with the resources we have available,” Corona told lawmakers.

Corona said PUC staff had created a model wildfire mitigation plan that utility companies can use as a template. The model is intended to support smaller utility companies that lack sufficient resources to make their own plan. King asked Corona for a list of entities who complied with the requirement.

“When eight out of 160 have complied, and we’re sitting here in September, that doesn’t sound like a very good response to me,” King said.

A looming deadline

Brad Baldridge, interim president of Southwestern Public Service Company, which operates as Xcel Energy, told lawmakers what his company is doing to mitigate wildfires. The company was heavily criticized in the wake of the fires and has since deployed 97 wildfire detection cameras across its service territory. The cameras use AI to detect smoke and provide that information in real-time to utility personnel, local fire responders and emergency managers. It also uses Public Safety Power Shutoffs to turn off power in certain areas during critical wildfire conditions to prevent an electrical start. Baldridge said since 2024, the company has had to shut off power five times.

When King asked if the company had submitted its wildfire mitigation plans, Baldridge said it was submitted last month. It would have been submitted earlier, he said, but there was “tremendous” vegetation that grew from rain earlier in the year.

“All of our experts were focusing on wildfire mitigation,” Baldridge said. “Which delayed us a little bit in our filing.”

Mark Bell, CEO for the Association of Electric Companies of Texas, said they are using remote cameras and sensors to detect wildfires and are taking a more aggressive approach to manage vegetation. They also use power shutoffs in extreme conditions to minimize the risk. Bell testified that their utility companies were on track to file their wildfire mitigation plans.

“I think all the plans are going to be filed by the end of the year,” Bell said.

King reminded Bell that it’s September, and many haven’t filed yet.

“That’d be 148 (plans) approved before January,” King said.

Bell assured King that five of them have filed their plans and one is scheduled to file in October.

Corona, with the PUC, said there are also pole and maintenance plans due in January that will detail a complete inventory of those assets owned by utilities. King said the plan is to have the companies list everything they own in Texas, where it is and how old it is. However, he said they aren’t being compliant and lawmakers will see what happens in January.

Cowden, the rancher in the Panhandle, told the Tribune that while it’s not technically fire season anymore, there are still small fires that ignite around the area.

Cowden sees the amount of work being done by Xcel Energy to upgrade their electrical poles and infrastructure in the area. He said it’s different than before the wildfires in 2024. He thinks the fires got their attention.

“You can tell they’re making a conscious effort to try to upgrade their infrastructure,” Cowden said.

This story was originally published by The Texas Tribune and distributed through a partnership with The Associated Press.

Houston-based ‘grid in a box’ provider Branch Energy raises $33M

fresh funding

Houston-based startup Branch Energy, which offers a self-contained “grid in a box,” has collected $33 million in a Series B round.

Piva Capital and Clean Energy Ventures led the round, according to a news release. Active Impact Investments, Whitecap Venture Partners, Prelude Ventures, Zero Infinity Partners and Inovia Capital also contributed to the round.

In 2024, Branch raised $10.8 million in an oversubscribed Series A round.

Branch’s business model

Branch, which launched in 2021, says its proprietary Arc “grid in a box” contains everything needed to store and supply electricity. A container about the size of a parking space holds an industrial-grade battery, grid connection equipment, cooling capabilities, autonomous controls and cloud-based management software.

The startup installs Arc systems at warehouses, hotels, factories, stores and other commercial properties. Each system arrives on a flatbed truck and can be online within two days, Branch says.

Under Branch’s business model, a property owner avoids upfront payment for an Arc system.

Aside from equipping a host business with an Arc system, Branch serves as the business’ power provider. The startup says it guarantees savings on the host’s energy bills and delivers backup power during outages.

Branch generates revenue by sending the battery’s stored power to the grid or to customers like hyperscale data centers. It also benefits by shifting energy from low-cost periods at night to high-cost periods during daily power peaks.

The startup handles permitting, installation, insurance and operations for each Arc system. The host provides a parking-lot-sized plot of land for the system.

Alex Ince-Cushman, co-founder and CEO of Branch, says the startup’s “grid in a box” can quickly meet the substantial power requirements of hyperscale data centers.

“We can do it on the timeline of a delivery, not a construction project. Our customers don’t lift a finger, don’t pay a dime and get guaranteed savings,” Ince-Cushman said in the release.

Entering the Illinois market

Branch already operates in Texas and is entering the Illinois market.

PJM, which operates Illinois’ power grid, recently paved the way for major energy users like data centers to connect to the grid sooner when they rely on their own electricity generation. PJM’s territory covers roughly 1.2 million commercial buildings and represents 20 percent of U.S. power demand, according to Branch.

“Grids around the country need the distributed capacity that [the Arc] system can supply, especially in states with fast-growing power demand like Texas and Illinois,” Lee Larson, principal at Piva Capital added in the release.

To keep up with that demand, Branch plans to build tens of thousands of Arc systems in the U.S.

A multibillion-dollar company in the making?

Daniel Goldman, co-founder and managing partner of Clean Energy Ventures, said Branch holds the potential to become a multibillion-dollar competitor in the emerging market for distributed power.

“With utility-scale generation and storage challenged by interconnect and siting constraints, behind-the-meter commercial, and industrial storage sites have become the ultimate market opportunity with ease of interconnect, ability to combine distributed AI data centers, and identifiable savings in rapidly growing markets,” Goldman said.

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