Texas expert: Evaluating COP28's progress amid the energy transition

Guest column

The controversy that dogged the climate summit shows the extent to which misinformation, politics, and outdated beliefs reign supreme — and hinder progress toward net zero, says this Texas expert. Photo by COP28 / Anthony Fleyhan

Before it even started, COP28 drew sharp condemnation from activists and left-leaning politicians who took issue with the climate conference location: the United Arab Emirates, a leading oil and gas-producing nation.

“Time to say ‘the F-words’?” CNBC asked in one headline, referring of course to “fossil fuel.” A group of US and EU lawmakers called for the removal of COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber, head of the UAE’s national oil company Adnoc. And former Vice President Al Gore slammed the host nation and the summit itself, saying it was “abusing the public’s trust” because al-Jaber couldn’t be an honest broker of a climate deal.

I get it. The optics were certain to raise eyebrows and provide low-hanging fruit for critics. But the extent to which the conference became a global flash point was surprising even to the most cynical of onlookers. Finger-pointing took center stage, relegating rational discussion to the shadows. Misinformation and distrust flourished as a tired old energy transition narrative took hold — one that pits villain oil and gas against hero Renewables in an epic fight to save the planet.

At Workrise we follow data, not ideology, you’ll know that success in the energy transition is an all-of-the-above proposition. And in this regard, COP28 made progress. Reading the text of the agreement it’s clear that the delegation has adopted the view that the dominant suppliers of energy to the world — oil and gas companies — must be a part of the solution going forward, and accepted the reality that fuel sources like nuclear and natural gas must be leveraged if we are to reach our 2050 targets.

This pragmatic approach makes sense all the time, but it has particular resonance now as the industry undergoes a sea change in the form of consolidation. Nowhere is this M&A wave more keenly felt than in Texas, where the value of 2023 mergers and acquisitions in the Permian basin reached more than $100 billion after massive deals including ExxonMobil's proposed $60 billion purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron's $53 billion acquisition of Hess. These kinds of deals will bring a seismic shift in the way the industry operates — including by enabling companies like Exxon and Chevron to find new production efficiencies, and further bake emissions reduction into their operating models.

But what becomes clear when reading the COP28 agreement is that in nearly all cases, the room was too divided to put measurable targets on the board that are enforceable. Nearly every “commitment” comes with words that provide loopholes and outs.

So what we have is a “deal” that stops short of the kind of black-and-white commitments that create accountability — a deal with language folks can live with, but that won’t meaningfully change realities on the ground. Which begs the question: Why is that, and why can’t we do more?

Two words: dogma and hostility. They are the root cause of the polarization that gripped the conference and steers the wider conversation about the energy transition worldwide. With those powerful forces holding sway, we will never get to agreements that have the teeth required to move the needle on this global challenge.

At the end of the day, it was impressive to see Al Jaber emerge from the summit with a deal of any kind, despite the fire storm that he fueled with his comments earlier in the conference.

What the world needs is leaders who are willing to put aside ideology, rely on proven facts, and grab every opportunity they have to move the chains. Just as important, those leaders need to understand the sensitivity of this topic — and how easily it becomes cannon fodder for those who seek to weaponize it. Without the right leadership, how can we hope for the general public to engage meaningfully in this debate, and to understand what their vote — whether they cast it with their wallet or at the ballot box — truly means?

So long as both sides of this debate dig in and throw stones at each other, the journey to net zero will continue to get longer and more arduous.

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Joshua Trott is chief revenue officer at Austin-based Workrise, which is a labor provider and supply chain solution for energy companies — including some in Houston.

From coal and consolidation to LNG and policy reform, here are eight predictions for the energy industry. Photo via Getty Images

8 energy industry predictions for 2024 from oil and gas experts

guest column

We hate to start with the bad news, but let’s get it out of the way. As we look to the year ahead, we see numerous challenges for the industry, from labor and geopolitics to OPEC and continued polarization in Washington. Times are complicated, and nothing looks to be getting simpler.

But there’s good news, too. Natural gas use is booming, and the production, transmission, and processing companies that move decisively here will see substantial upside. Additionally, those who diversify their businesses can get in early on new ventures and accelerate their progress — see Devon with Fervo in geothermal. Local nuclear, hydrogen, and carbon capture all represent similar opportunities.

From our vantage point working with many of the biggest operators and suppliers, we’re seeing activity that will have major ramifications for the industry in the coming year.

Here are eight predictions about what’s around the corner — the good, the bad, and the hopeful. Let’s dig in.

Prediction 1: Historic growth in natural gas demand will drive more favorable policy, which will enable more rapid development of natural gas infrastructure and pipelines.

What we’ll see: Early signals show over a 10 percent demand increase for natural gas through the end of 2025, driven largely by international factors. Supply disruptions in Europe due to Ukraine, shutdowns internationally on key nuclear projects, and efforts to move from coal to natural gas both in Europe and the developing world are all contributing factors.

Why it matters: As global demand increases, more LNG export facilities will either be upgraded or built in the United States to increase our capacity to export natural gas to markets around the world. New capital will flow to infrastructure like LNG export facilities, and then the opposite infrastructure will need to be built to take it back to liquid. We are already seeing movement on additional new projects in the US, and expect it to ramp significantly in 2024 and beyond. This demand-side pressure, coupled with the fact that natural gas has made meaningful strides on emissions, will drive a much more favorable policy posture. We believe this will enable the development of natural gas infrastructure and pipelines, and accelerated investment in combined cycle natural gas plants.

Prediction 2: Next year will be the year oil and gas starts to walk the walk when it comes to the energy transition.

What we’ll see: The year ahead will bring a more realistic approach to the energy transition from the big oil and gas companies. We expect to inch closer to consensus in the industry on the need for both improved emissions reduction andincreased diversification in order to meet the expectations of investors and secure new pathways to long-term growth.

While you may hear less about what companies are doing to drive the transition, they will actually be doing more via internal investment, consolidation in the form of M&A, andpublic/private partnerships.

Companies will also invest meaningfully in new technologies to lower their carbon footprints, and for operations of this size and scale, even incremental investments will have significant impact. Expect to see both organic and inorganic development as companies build new solutions internally and either invest in or acquire smaller companies that open up new pathways to emissions reduction, diversification, and ultimately growth.

This will result in even more mega deals as the majors and supermajors compete for a fixed number of assets (see: Chevron’s growing carbon capture interest and acquisition of Hess, Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer, Oxy’s moves to cement its position as the industry leader in the carbon capture arena).

Why it matters: Make no mistake — we are still operating in a world where a large portion of investments in diversification and emissions reduction occupy the realm of R&D. Testing. Probing what's possible. Companies won't be broadcasting it because they don't know for sure what is going to work. But what we'll see is more of those investments coming to fruition. And while they may be a drop in the bucket for a supermajor, even a small increase in spend for the Chevrons and Exxons of the world will represent meaningful progress on the ground.

Prediction 3: The oil and gas M&A wave will drive massive consolidation on the services side of the industry.

What we’ll see: As larger oil and gas companies acquire companies to secure new assets and build pathways to future growth, consolidation of the leadership teams that manage their operations will have ripple effects. This will significantly impact decisions on which vendors continue to service the operations of the company post-integration. Because of this, the vendors they choose to work with will massively grow as they are folded into the larger company’s operations, while the others will get cut out and see demand shrink considerably.

Why it matters: The services companies who win out will buy up the smaller companies to keep up with growth. Consolidation will shift the balance of power among companies, leaving those that lose out to either drastically shrink or go out of business entirely. As companies consolidate services under their go-to strategic vendors, these same vendors will gain significant pricing leverage over their clients. And more consolidation will mean less competition on the supply side of the equation, which will further drive up costs that are already rising, according to a recent NewtonX benchmark study on the oil and gas supply chain.

Prediction 4: The oil and gas industry will continue to struggle with a broken skills transfer pipeline.

What we’ll see: The industry is experiencing a massive age-out of seasoned employees, coupled with a lack of new talent choosing a career in oil and gas, leading to skills gaps and labor shortages. This is exacerbated by the sector’s longtime reliance on an apprenticeship model. At the same time, the industry is making strides with technology, empowering individual employees to do more than ever before. But these advancements require new and different skills which won't, at least in the next 12 months, help address the root problem here. Until then, these gaps have the potential to drive increasingly unsafe labor environments.

Why it matters: More than ever, oil and gas companies will need access to trusted vendors with experienced talent and advanced technology that can handle complex projects while maintaining the highest safety standards. The industry must stay more vigilant than ever to avoid increased rates of accidents and fatalities in the field due to the continued decline in available, qualified talent. And, of course, it must develop its current employees. Just under half of the respondents in our supply chain benchmark study reported that they were “investing in employee training and development” to meet their most pressing challenges.

Prediction 5: We’ll see the dawning of a nuclear renaissance.

What we’ll see: Nuclear energy will shake off the vestiges of its battered reputation as the public and private sectors begin to see it for what it is: a safe and reliable long-term solution for sustainable power generation. Expect small nuclear modular reactors (SMNRs) at home and abroad to drive nuclear investment and innovation, alongside continued reinvestment in existing large-scale infrastructure.

Why it matters: As nuclear returns to favor, localized nuclear power will evolve in the US. The federal government is already taking more of a pro-nuclear approach, actively investing in and retooling existing plants to increase the facilities’ lifespans. And there is Congressional support on both sides of the aisle. According to a new PEW study, half of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and two-thirds of Republicans now say they favor expanding nuclear power. Companies at the cutting edge of this sea change will begin to harness it to make hydrogen.

Prediction 6: We haven’t hit peak coal yet.

What we’ll see: Coal utilization and consumption, driven by the demand from the developing world — Africa, parts of Asia, and South America — have risen over the past 18 months. Expect this to continue. Despite the immense damage caused to the planet by the burning of coal, putting it at odds with the global goal of a sustainable future, countries lacking in sufficient power still see coal as a faster, less expensive way to provide the energy they need to grow their economies.

Why it matters: The rise of coal usage will continue to put us farther and farther behind as a planet until we can offer reliable, cost-effective, and cleaner alternatives. One alternative is natural gas power generation (which creates50 to 60 percent fewer carbon emissions than coal power generation) in the regions where it is needed most. But given how polarized the climate debate has become, only time will tell whether LNG will be accepted as a viable bridge fuel in the court of public opinion

Prediction 7: As our progress falls behind schedule relative to 2050 goals, political tensions will continue to rise.

What we’ll see: We can expect the election year in the U.S. to accelerate the ideological polarization we have endured in the oil and gas vs. Renewables debate. At the same time, the planet will slide on the emissions scoreboard due to coal usage in the developing world, lack of movement on industrial commodities like steel, and the slow march of progress on getting renewable energy sources to be viable from an investment standpoint without the aid of government subsidies.

Why it matters: This will only stoke the anger from the left, and cause the right to dig in even further as oil and gas continues to carry the global energy supply and power the global economy. And paradoxically, if you accept that coal is the single worst enemy of climate progress, the polarization we see will only limit our ability to eradicate coal from our global energy mix. Why? Because there is no cleaner, more readily available alternative to natural gas. And we need comprehensive infrastructure and energy policy reform to unleash U.S. national gas on this global crisis. That’s why we’ve made the case that comprehensive policy reform should be Washington's top domestic priority over the next 12 months. It's crucial for both the economy and our national security.

Prediction 8: The influence of OPEC will be put to the test.

What we’ll see: Production elsewhere in the world, including Canada and the US, will continue to rise, which will challenge OPEC influence. Countries will re-evaluate trade routes and trading relationships due to increased buying options, which present the opportunity to lower costs for domestic consumers, kickstart consumer spending, and increase energy security.

Why it matters: Expect more extreme business and production tactics as OPEC members strain to maintain control of global energy markets. Take note of new alliances and trade partnerships begin to form and watch rising powers make their first moves on the global energy chessboard as we start to see a new world order take shape.

__

Joshua Trott and Adam Hirschfeld are executives at Austin-based Workrise, which is a labor provider and supply chain solution for energy companies — including some in Houston.

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Houston-based Fervo Energy collects $255M in additional funding

cha-ching

A Houston company that's responding to rising energy demand by harnessing geothermal energy through its technology has again secured millions in funding. The deal brings Fervo's total funding secured this year to around $600 million.

Fervo Energy announced that it has raised $255 million in new funding and capital availability. The $135 million corporate equity round was led by Capricorn’s Technology Impact Fund II with participating investors including Breakthrough Energy Ventures, CalSTRS, Congruent Ventures, CPP Investments, DCVC, Devon Energy, Galvanize Climate Solutions, Liberty Mutual Investments, Mercuria, and Sabanci Climate Ventures.

The funding will go toward supporting Fervo's ongoing and future geothermal projects.

“The demand for 24/7 carbon-free energy is at an all-time high, and Fervo is one of the only companies building large projects that will come online before the end of the decade,” Fervo CEO and Co-Founder Tim Latimer says in a news release. “Investors recognize that Fervo’s ability to get to scale quickly is vital in an evolving market that is seeing unprecedented energy demand from AI and other sources.”

Additionally, Fervo secured a $120 million letter of credit and term loan facility from Mercuria, an independent energy and commodity group that previously invested in the company.

“In surveying power markets across the U.S. today, the need for next-generation geothermal is undeniable,” Brian Falik, group chief investment officer of Mercuria, adds. “We believe in Fervo not just because their EGS approach is cost-effective, commercially viable, and already being deployed at scale, but because they set ambitious targets and consistently deliver.”

In February, Fervo secured $244 million in a financing round led by Devon Energy, and in September, the company received a $100 million bridge loan for the first phase of its ongoing project in Utah. This project, known as Project Cape, represents a 100x growth opportunity for Fervo, as Latimer explained to InnovationMap earlier this year. As of now, Project Cape is fully permitted up to 2 GW and will begin generating electricity in 2026, per the company.

Other wins for Fervo this year include moving into its new headquarters in downtown Houston, securing a power purchase agreement with California, growing its partnership with Google, and being named amongst the year's top inventions by Time magazine.

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

Greentown raises funding, a new tree initiative in Houston, and more trending energy transition news

top stories

Editor's note: From DOE funding for underground power line research to Zeta Energy's big deal with, these are the top headlines that resonated with EnergyCapital readers on social media and daily newsletter this week.

Investors from Houston and Boston fuel Greentown with $4M commitment

A mix of public and private investors have funded Greentown Labs. Photo via GreentownLabs.com

Greentown Labs, a climatetech incubator with locations in the Houston and Boston areas, has announced it has received funding from a mix of investors.

The $4 million in funding came from both of the Houston and Massachusetts locations. Houston investors included Bobby Tudor, CEO of Artemis Energy Partners and chairman of the Houston Energy Transition Initiative; David Baldwin, co-founder of OpenMinds and TEX-E and partner at SCF Partners; and Rice University. Other investors included MassDevelopment and the City of Somerville.

“The challenges of the energy transition are immense, and the role played by technology incubators like Greentown Labs is essential,” Tudor says in a news release. “We believe this role, which is a partnership between academia, industry, philanthropists, entrepreneurs, and governments, is the best way to get to effective, scalable solutions in a time frame that the urgency of the challenge requires. We need all hands on deck, and this partnership between Massachusetts and Texas can be a role model for others.”Continue reading.

Houston launches Google-backed tool to address urban tree cover disparities

American Forests is aiming to assist with at least 100 cities to make progress on Tree Equity by 2030. Photo by Thomas Koenig/Big Pineapple Productions

The oldest national nonprofit conservation organization in the U.S American Forests has launched the Houston Tree Equity Score Analyzer, which was developed through local nonprofit Trees For Houston and local stakeholders from local government, environmental groups and the public health sector, and supported by Google’s philanthropic arm Google.org with a $450,000 grant.

To mark the launch, Trees For Houston and American Forest celebrated the partnership and worked to plant 50 trees at Shadydale Elementary in Northeast Houston on December 6.

“This marks a significant milestone for Houston's urban forestry efforts,” says Texas State Representative Senfronia Thompson at the December 6 event. “This effort goes beyond simply planting trees—it’s about creating the foundation for a greener, more inclusive future for our community. By uniting diverse resources and partners, including American Forests, Google.org and Trees For Houston, we’re showcasing a powerful dedication to enhancing the environmental well-being and quality of life in our urban areas.”Continue reading.

Houston company secures $10M contract to deliver subsea well decommissioning solution

Expro has secured a $10 million contract to provide a subsea well decommissioning solution, combining subsea safety systems and surface fluid management to support safe re-entry and fluid management for plugged and abandoned wells. Photo courtesy of Expro

Houston energy services provider Expro was awarded a contract valued at over $10 million for the provision of a well decommissioning solution.

The solution will combine subsea safety systems and surface processing design that can enable safe entry to the well and management of well fluids.

“The contract reinforces our reputation as the leading provider of subsea safety systems and surface well test equipment, including within the P&A sector,” Iain Farley, Expro’s regional vice president for Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, says in a news release.Continue reading.

This Houston innovator's innovative corrosion detection tech is vital to the future of energy

Anwar Sadek of Corrolytics joins the Houston Innovators Podcast to discuss his company's growth and move to Houston. Photo courtesy

Houston-based Corrolytics approach is to help revolutionize and digitize microbial corrosion detection — both to improves efficiency and operational cost for industrial companies, but also to move the needle on a cleaner future for the energy industry.

"We are having an energy transition — that is a given. As we are bringing new energy, there will be growth of infrastructure to them. Every single path for the energy transition, corrosion will play a primary role as well," Anwar Sadek, co-founder and CEO of Corrolytics, says on the Houston Innovators Podcast.

The technology Sadek and his team have created is a tool to detect microbial corrosion — a major problem for industrial businesses, especially within the energy sector. Sadek describes the product as being similar to a testing hit a patient would use at home or in a clinic setting to decipher their current ailments.Continue reading.

Houston company's $2B carbon-negative fuel project to rise in Southeast Texas

Pathway Energy has announced a major sustainable aviation fuel project in Port Arthur, Texas. Rendering courtesy of Pathway Energy

Houston developer of ultra carbon-negative fuels projects Pathway Energy announced a series of commercial-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facilities with the first being based in Port Arthur, Texas.

The project, estimated to be valued at $2 billion, will be one of the largest decarbonization projects in the world.

Pathway plans to bring commercial SAF to market with its years of experience in waste and biomass conversion processes and technologies that include biomass gasification, Fischer-Tropsch, biomass power generation, and complex biorefinery and industrial processes. Continue reading.

ExxonMobil, Worley to bring low-carbon hydrogen project to Baytown

big deal

ExxonMobil selected Australia-based engineering and professional services company Worley to provide engineering, procurement and construction services for a proposed hydrogen and ammonia production facility in Baytown, which is expected to have a production capacity of 1 billion cubic feet of blue hydrogen per day. ExxonMobil expects the facility will be the largest of its kind in the world.

“We are delighted to continue our strategic, global relationship with ExxonMobil in its execution of upcoming projects, particularly in delivering this EPC project on the US Gulf Coast, which contributes significantly to strengthening Worley’s backlog,” Chris Ashton, CEO of Worley, states, according to Offshore Energy.

The facility in Baytown is expected to produce 28.3 million cubic meters (1 billion cubic feet) of low-carbon hydrogen daily and nearly 1 million metric tonnes (more than 1 million tons) of ammonia per year, which will also capture more than 98 percent of the associated CO2 emissions.

The facility will leverage advanced carbon capture and storage technologies to reduce emissions associated with hydrogen production. ExxonMobile also said its carbon capture and storage system would be available for use by third-party CO2 emitters in the area.

A final investment decision is expected in 2025 , and an anticipated startup in 2029. “Blue” hydrogen is expected to be a top energy driver in 2025 according to global consultancy Wood Mackenzie who predicts that at least three large-scale blue hydrogen projects in the U.S will reach FID by next year.

The company hopes the new facility will help in creating U.S. jobs and supporting community development initiatives throughout the Houston area, and the state.

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