Will 2023 be hydrogen’s year?

GUEST COLUMN

Scott Nyquist debates both sides of the hydrogen argument in this week’s ECHTX Voices of Energy guest column. Photo courtesy of Aramco.

Yes and no.

Yes, because there is real money, and action, behind it.

Globally, there are 600 projects on the books to build electrolyzers, which separate the oxygen and hydrogen in water, and are critical to creating low-emissions “green hydrogen.” That investment could drive down the cost of low-emissions hydrogen, making it cost competitive with conventional fuels—a major obstacle to its development so far.

In addition, oil companies are interested, too. The industry already uses hydrogen for refining; many see hydrogen as supplemental to their existing operations and perhaps, eventually, supplanting them. In the meantime, it helps them to decarbonize their refining and petrochemical operations, which most of the majors have committed to doing.

Indeed, hydrocarbon-based companies and economies could have a big opportunity in “blue hydrogen,” which uses fossil fuels for production, but then captures and stores emissions. (“Green hydrogen” uses renewables; because it is expensive to produce, it is more distant than blue. “Gray hydrogen” uses fossil fuels, without carbon capture; this accounts for most current production and use.) Oil and gas companies have a head start on related infrastructure, such as pipelines and carbon capture, and also see new business opportunities, such as low-carbon ammonia.

Houston, for example, which likes to call itself the "energy capital of the world,” is going big on hydrogen. The region is well suited to this. It has an extensive pipeline infrastructure, an excellent port system, a pro-business culture, and experience. The Greater Houston Partnership and McKinsey—both of whom I am associated with—estimate that demand for hydrogen will grow 6 to 8 percent a year from 2030 to 2050. No wonder Houston wants a piece of that action.

There are promising, near-term applications for hydrogen, such as ammonia, cement, and steel production, shipping, long-term energy storage, long-haul trucking, and aviation. These bits and pieces add up: steel alone accounts for about 8 percent of global carbon-dioxide emissions. Late last year, Airbus announced it is developing a hydrogen-powered fuel cell engine as part of its effort to build zero-emission aircraft. And Cummins, a US-based engine company, is investing serious money in hydrogen for trains and commercial and industrial vehicles, where batteries are less effective; it already has more than 500 electrolyzers at work.

Then there is recent US legislation. The Infrastructure, Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) of 2021 allocated $9.5 billion funding for hydrogen. Much more important, though, was last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, which contains generous tax credits to promote hydrogen production. The idea is to narrow the price gap between clean hydrogen and other, more emissions-intensive technologies; in effect, the law seeks to fundamentally change the economics of hydrogen and could be a true game-changer.

This is not without controversy: some Europeans think this money constitutes subsidies that are not allowed under trade rules. For its part, Europe has the hydrogen bug, too. Its REPowerEU plan is based on the idea of “hydrogen-ready infrastructure,” so that natural gas projects can be converted to hydrogen when the technology and economics make sense.

So there is a lot of momentum behind hydrogen, bolstered by the ambitious goals agreed to at the most recent climate conference in Egypt. McKinsey estimates that hydrogen demand could reach 660 million tons by 2050, which could abate 20 percent of total emissions. Total planned production for lower-emission green and blue hydrogen through 2030 has reached more than 26 million metric tons annually—quadruple that of 2020.

No, because major issues have not been figured out.

The plans in the works, while ambitious, are murky. A European official, asked about the REPowerEU strategy, admitted that “it’s not clear how it will work.” The same can be said of the United States. The hydrogen value chain, particularly for green hydrogen, requires a lot of electricity, and that calls for flexible grids and much greater capacity. For the United States to reach its climate goals, the grid needs to grow an estimated 60 percent by 2030.That is not easy: just try siting new transmission lines and watch the NIMBY monsters emerge.

Permitting can be a nightmare, often requiring separate approvals from local, state, interstate, and federal authorities, and from different authorities for each (air, land, water, endangered species, and on and on); money does not solve this. Even a state like Texas, which isn’t allergic to fossil fuels and has a relatively light regulatory touch, can get stuck in permitting limbo. Bill Gates recently noted that “over 1,000 gigawatts worth of potential clean energy projects [in the United States] are waiting for approval—about the current size of the entire U.S. grid—and the primary reason for the bottleneck is the lack of transmission.”

Then there is the matter of moving hydrogen from production site to market. Pipeline networks are not yet in place and shifting natural gas pipelines to hydrogen is a long way off. Liquifying hydrogen and transporting is expensive. In general, because hydrogen is still a new industry, it faces “chicken or egg” problems that are typical of the difficulties big innovations face, such as connecting hydrogen buyers to hydrogen producers and connecting carbon emitters to places to store the carbon dioxide. These challenges add to the complexity of getting projects financed.

Finally, there is money. McKinsey estimates that getting on track to that 600 million tons would require investment of $950 billion by 2030; so far, $240 billion has been announced.

Where I stand: in the middle.

I believe in hydrogen’s potential. More than 3 years ago, I wrote about hydrogen, arguing that while there had been real progress, “many things need to happen, in terms of policy, finance, and infrastructure, before it becomes even a medium-sized deal.” Now, some of those things are happening.

So, I guess I land somewhere in the middle. I think 2023 will see real progress, in decarbonizing refining and petrochemicals operations and producing ammonia, specifically. I am also optimistic that a number of low-emissions electrolysis projects will move ahead. And while such advances might seem less than transformative, they are critical: hydrogen, whether blue or green, needs to prove itself, and 2023 could be the year it does.

Because I take hydrogen’s potential seriously, though, I also see the barriers. If it is to become the big deal its supporters believe it could be, that requires big money, strong engineering and construction project management, sustained commitment, and community support. It’s easy to proclaim the wonders of the hydrogen economy; it’s much more difficult to devise sensible business models, standardized contracts, consistent incentives, and a regulatory system that doesn’t drive producers crazy. But all this matters—a lot.

My conclusion: there will be significant steps forward in 2023—but take-off is still years away.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn.

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7 must-attend Houston energy transition events in May 2025

On the Agenda

Editor's note: May is here, and there's a full slate of must-attend energy transition events this month. Mark your calendars for these top events, including OTC 2025, CHARGE North America, and more.Please note: this article may be updated to include additional events.

May 5-9 — OTC 2025

Offshore Technology Conference 2025 will cover the the theme of "Waves of Innovation," covering offshore energy excellence." The premier five-day conference willhighlight the groundbreaking advancements in offshore energy, showcasing the industry's relentless drive for innovation. As global energy needs evolve, the "Waves of Innovation" theme reflects OTC’s commitment to sustainable, cutting-edge technologies that are shaping the future of offshore energy.

Industry leaders will come together to explore new frontiers in offshore energy, emphasizing the operational efficiency, environmental responsibility, and technical excellence required to meet the challenges of tomorrow’s energy landscape.

The Opening Ceremony kicks off Monday, May 5 at 9 am. The event continues at NRG Park through May 9. Click here to register.

May 12-15 — Enverus Evolve Conference

Staying ahead of the curve in the energy sector is critical. This conference is designed to equip energy leaders with foresight in the energy market, providing cutting-edge technological know-how, sessions and networking opportunities industry leaders, and offering practical guidance on how to apply technology to solve big problems.

This event begins May 12 at Hilton Americas Houston. Click here to register.

May 12-13 — Carbon Hub Annual Meeting

The fifth-annual Carbon Hub Annual Meeting will bring together industry, academic, and research leaders at the forefront of the energy and materials transitions. Attendees will have access to thought-provoking discussions and opportunities to connect with innovators across the field. The full agenda has yet to be released, but featured speakers include David Hatrick, Vice President, Strategic Marketing and Innovation, Huntsman Advanced Materials; Luca de Rai, Vice President, Research & Development Energy, Prysmian Group; and Dhaval Shah, General Manager, Corporate Technology & Innovation, SABIC.

This event begins May 12 at Rice University. Click here to register.

May 20-21 — Geothermal Transition Summit North America

This two-day summit serves as the meeting point for the geothermal and oil and gas industries and will focus on geothermal energy, including scaling plants and navigating state regulations. The event promises 50 expert speakers, 15 tech demos, and access to eight networking events featuring approximately 250 industry decision makers.

This event begins May 20 at Norris Conference Centers - Houston CityCentre. Click here to register.

May 27-28 — 6th American LNG Forum

Join LNG industry professionals, innovators, and policymakers to discover groundbreaking technologies that are driving the future of liquified natural gas. Topics will include market dynamics and decarbonization strategies, offering attendees the chance to connect, learn, and become part of the LNG revolution.

This event begins May 27 at the Westin Galleria Houston. Click here to register.

May 28-30 — CHARGE North America

This intimate, immersive experience is tailored to forward-thinking energy professionals. The conference includes hands-on interactive workshops led by top strategists; real-world case studies; and insights from leading speakers on resilient branding, consumer expectations, and climate action. Attendees will engage in panel discussions on sustainability and energy diversification and enjoy exclusive networking opportunities with global executives and innovators.

This event begins May 28 at The Ion. Click here to register.

May 29-30 — 5th Annual American Hydrogen Forum

Connect with hydrogen industry leaders, innovators, and policymakers at the American Hydrogen Forum. Discover groundbreaking technologies and strategies focusing on hydrogen fuel cell technology, hydrogen energy, and low-carbon hydrogen solutions.

This event begins May 29 at the Westin Galleria Houston. Click here to register.

Solugen names Houston founder as new president of energy and water

new leaders

Houston-based biochemical producer Solugen has hired chemical industry veteran James Begeal as its new president of energy and water.

In his new position, Begeal leads the commercial strategy for the energy and produced-water sectors, “bringing our innovative chemistry directly to leading oil and gas operators, accelerating revenue growth, and deepening our commercial pipeline,” Solugen said in a news release.

Begeal has more than 25 years of experience in the chemical industry, including roles at oilfield technology company Baker Hughes and chemical company Clariant. In 2016, he co-founded NexGen Chemical Technologies, a Cypress-based provider of alternative natural-gas sweeteners. Begeal served as chief operating officer and chief technology officer at NexGen, which was acquired by League City-based Foremark Performance Chemicals in 2023. He then joined Foremark, which was acquired by investment firm CC Industries in 2024.

Begeal is no stranger to Solugen, having previously served as a company advisor.

“James is a builder — he knows what it takes to launch, scale, and win in this space,” says Solugen CEO Gaurab Chakrabarti. “We’re excited to have him bring that same builder’s mindset to Solugen as we double down on delivering solutions that meet our customers’ toughest challenges.”

The company also recently named Carlos Diaz as its new VP of strategy and international business. Diaz worked for 18 years at Baker Hughes and will lead Solugen's commercial expansion efforts into Latin America and beyond, according to a company representative.

Solugen, founded in 2016, raised $357 million in a series C venture capital round. The 2021 round catapulted Solugen into the unicorn category, meaning the private company is valued at more than $1 billion.

Weatherford partners with Abu Dhabi-based AI company to boost efficiency

eyes on ai

Houston-headquartered oilfield service company Weatherford International announced a strategic Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with AIQ, an Abu Dhabi-based artificial intelligence company, to develop innovative solutions for the energy sector.

"We are excited to partner with AIQ to bring innovative, AI-driven solutions to the oil and gas industry,” Girish Saligram, president and CEO of Weatherford, said in a news release. “This strategic partnership allows us to deliver cutting-edge technologies that empower our customers to maximize their operational efficiency, enhance automation, and reduce costs. By combining our strengths, we are leading the way in helping operators modernize their workflows and achieve greater success in today's rapidly evolving energy landscape.”

The collaboration aims to use Weatherford's software and hardware solutions with AIQ's AI-driven systems. Weatherford and AIQ hope this union will significantly enhance operational efficiency across global oil and gas facilities, help operators to optimize their production workflows and reduce downtime.

The companies have developed the new Modern Edge Integration, which will combine AIQ's AI technology with Weatherford's Modern Edge program. It will enable operators to scale their work processes.

In addition, Weatherford's Universal Normalizer will work with AIQ's capabilities to combine operational and financial analysis. Customers will also now be able to procure software needs via a comprehensive industrial SaaS platform with the WFRD Software Launchpad, which can eliminate the issues associated with managing multiple systems and vendors, and provide a single point of access for all Weatherford and partner-built applications.

"This partnership marks another step in AIQ's mission to build partnerships that accelerate the deployment of impactful AI systems across the energy value chain,” Magzhan Kenesbai, Acting Managing Director of AIQ, said in a news release. “By integrating our advanced AI-driven tools with Weatherford's energy-specific technology, we are driving greater efficiencies to the industry through the development of scalable, automated applications. Together, we are set to empower operators to optimize their workflows, reduce downtime, and achieve unparalleled operational excellence.”