Will 2023 be hydrogen’s year?

GUEST COLUMN

Scott Nyquist debates both sides of the hydrogen argument in this week’s ECHTX Voices of Energy guest column. Photo courtesy of Aramco.

Yes and no.

Yes, because there is real money, and action, behind it. 

Globally, there are 600 projects on the books to build electrolyzers, which separate the oxygen and hydrogen in water, and are critical to creating low-emissions “green hydrogen.” That investment could drive down the cost of low-emissions hydrogen, making it cost competitive with conventional fuels—a major obstacle to its development so far.

In addition, oil companies are interested, too. The industry already uses hydrogen for refining; many see hydrogen as supplemental to their existing operations and perhaps, eventually, supplanting them. In the meantime, it helps them to decarbonize their refining and petrochemical operations, which most of the majors have committed to doing.

Indeed, hydrocarbon-based companies and economies could have a big opportunity in “blue hydrogen,” which uses fossil fuels for production, but then captures and stores emissions. (“Green hydrogen” uses renewables; because it is expensive to produce, it is more distant than blue. “Gray hydrogen” uses fossil fuels, without carbon capture; this accounts for most current production and use.) Oil and gas companies have a head start on related infrastructure, such as pipelines and carbon capture, and also see new business opportunities, such as low-carbon ammonia.

Houston, for example, which likes to call itself the "energy capital of the world,” is going big on hydrogen. The region is well suited to this. It has an extensive pipeline infrastructure, an excellent port system, a pro-business culture, and experience. The Greater Houston Partnership and McKinsey—both of whom I am associated with—estimate that demand for hydrogen will grow 6 to 8 percent a year from 2030 to 2050. No wonder Houston wants a piece of that action.

There are promising, near-term applications for hydrogen, such as ammonia, cement, and steel production, shipping, long-term energy storage, long-haul trucking, and aviation. These bits and pieces add up: steel alone accounts for about 8 percent of global carbon-dioxide emissions. Late last year, Airbus announced it is developing a hydrogen-powered fuel cell engine as part of its effort to build zero-emission aircraft. And Cummins, a US-based engine company, is investing serious money in hydrogen for trains and commercial and industrial vehicles, where batteries are less effective; it already has more than 500 electrolyzers at work.

Then there is recent US legislation. The Infrastructure, Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) of 2021 allocated $9.5 billion funding for hydrogen. Much more important, though, was last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, which contains generous tax credits to promote hydrogen production. The idea is to narrow the price gap between clean hydrogen and other, more emissions-intensive technologies; in effect, the law seeks to fundamentally change the economics of hydrogen and could be a true game-changer.

This is not without controversy: some Europeans think this money constitutes subsidies that are not allowed under trade rules. For its part, Europe has the hydrogen bug, too. Its REPowerEU plan is based on the idea of “hydrogen-ready infrastructure,” so that natural gas projects can be converted to hydrogen when the technology and economics make sense.

So there is a lot of momentum behind hydrogen, bolstered by the ambitious goals agreed to at the most recent climate conference in Egypt. McKinsey estimates that hydrogen demand could reach 660 million tons by 2050, which could abate 20 percent of total emissions. Total planned production for lower-emission green and blue hydrogen through 2030 has reached more than 26 million metric tons annually—quadruple that of 2020.

No, because major issues have not been figured out. 

The plans in the works, while ambitious, are murky. A European official, asked about the REPowerEU strategy, admitted that “it’s not clear how it will work.” The same can be said of the United States. The hydrogen value chain, particularly for green hydrogen, requires a lot of electricity, and that calls for flexible grids and much greater capacity. For the United States to reach its climate goals, the grid needs to grow an estimated 60 percent by 2030.That is not easy: just try siting new transmission lines and watch the NIMBY monsters emerge.

Permitting can be a nightmare, often requiring separate approvals from local, state, interstate, and federal authorities, and from different authorities for each (air, land, water, endangered species, and on and on); money does not solve this. Even a state like Texas, which isn’t allergic to fossil fuels and has a relatively light regulatory touch, can get stuck in permitting limbo. Bill Gates recently noted that “over 1,000 gigawatts worth of potential clean energy projects [in the United States] are waiting for approval—about the current size of the entire U.S. grid—and the primary reason for the bottleneck is the lack of transmission.”

Then there is the matter of moving hydrogen from production site to market. Pipeline networks are not yet in place and shifting natural gas pipelines to hydrogen is a long way off. Liquifying hydrogen and transporting is expensive. In general, because hydrogen is still a new industry, it faces “chicken or egg” problems that are typical of the difficulties big innovations face, such as connecting hydrogen buyers to hydrogen producers and connecting carbon emitters to places to store the carbon dioxide. These challenges add to the complexity of getting projects financed.

Finally, there is money. McKinsey estimates that getting on track to that 600 million tons would require investment of $950 billion by 2030; so far, $240 billion has been announced.

 Where I stand: in the middle.

I believe in hydrogen’s potential. More than 3 years ago, I wrote about hydrogen, arguing that while there had been real progress, “many things need to happen, in terms of policy, finance, and infrastructure, before it becomes even a medium-sized deal.” Now, some of those things are happening.

So, I guess I land somewhere in the middle. I think 2023 will see real progress, in decarbonizing refining and petrochemicals operations and producing ammonia, specifically. I am also optimistic that a number of low-emissions electrolysis projects will move ahead. And while such advances might seem less than transformative, they are critical: hydrogen, whether blue or green, needs to prove itself, and 2023 could be the year it does.

Because I take hydrogen’s potential seriously, though, I also see the barriers. If it is to become the big deal its supporters believe it could be, that requires big money, strong engineering and construction project management, sustained commitment, and community support. It’s easy to proclaim the wonders of the hydrogen economy; it’s much more difficult to devise sensible business models, standardized contracts, consistent incentives, and a regulatory system that doesn’t drive producers crazy. But all this matters—a lot.

My conclusion: there will be significant steps forward in 2023—but take-off is still years away.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn.

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Greentown Labs names Lawson Gow as its new Houston leader

head of hou

Greentown Labs has named Lawson Gow as its Head of Houston.

Gow is the founder of The Cannon, a coworking space with seven locations in the Houston area, with additional partner spaces. He also recently served as managing partner at Houston-based investment and advisory firm Helium Capital. Gow is the son of David Gow, founder of Energy Capital's parent company, Gow Media.

According to Greentown, Gow will "enhance the founder experience, cultivate strategic partnerships, and accelerate climatetech solutions" in his new role.

“I couldn’t be more excited to join Greentown at this critical moment for the energy transition,” Gow said in a news release. “Greentown has a fantastic track record of supporting entrepreneurs in Houston, Boston, and beyond, and I am eager to keep advancing our mission in the energy transition capital of the world.”

Gow has also held analyst, strategy and advising roles since graduating from Rice University.

“We are thrilled to welcome Lawson to our leadership team,” Georgina Campbell Flatter, CEO of Greentown Labs, added in the release. “Lawson has spent his career building community and championing entrepreneurs, and we look forward to him deepening Greentown’s support of climate and energy startups as our Head of Houston.”

Gow is the latest addition to a series of new hires at Greentown Labs following a leadership shakeup.

Flatter was named as the organization's new CEO in February, replacing Kevin Dutt, Greentown’s interim CEO, who replaced Kevin Knobloch after he announced that he would step down in July 2024 after less than a year in the role.

Greentown also named Naheed Malik its new CFO in January.

Timmeko Moore Love was named the first Houston general manager and senior vice president of Greentown Labs. According to LinkedIn, she left the role in January.

Key takeaways from HETI's Resilient Power Fueling Houston's Economy event

The View From HETI

Recently, the Resilient Power Fueling Houston’s Growing Economy workshop hosted by The Greater Houston Partnership’s Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI) brought together more than 80 industry, civic and innovation leaders in Houston to examine the region’s ability to meet rising demand with resilient power leadership.

The overarching message was clear: Houston is the epicenter of energy and power resilience and the “all of the above” strategy continues to position Houston well for the mission of continued economic growth for the region.

Morning highlights

Keynote speakers and panelists throughout the morning sessions highlighted that Houston’s ability to collaborate is creating real opportunities in a time of significant complexity and uncertainty in the power landscape. Discussions also focused on strategic approaches to resilience in both generation and transmission to serve growing power demand and drive economic growth over the near-term and long-term.

A successful near-term strategy highlighted in the workshop is the innovative business partnership to provide resilience for H-E-B’s retail operations with Enchanted Rock’s bridge-to-grid power solutions. The impact of growing sources of power demand was explored, including the decarbonization of industry and increasing digitization, and the essential collaborations between the energy and tech sectors to drive effective long-term power resilience and economic growth were discussed.

Notable quotes

“Public-private collaborations are the key to solve long-term power resilience problems with the technical expertise and investment capital of corporations and a right-sized local government approach” – Angela Blanchard, Chief Resilience Officer, City of Houston

"The risks and challenges in terms of our net zero power goals require both urgency and long-term focus to drive standardization across the system with speed.” – Sverre Brandsberg-Dahl, General Manager & Head of Product, Microsoft Cloud for Energy

Afternoon highlights

Afternoon sessions focused on complexities and challenges in the current power landscape, as well as policy enablers, investment trends, and innovations driving growth in Houston’s power sector. Stakeholder engagement, supply chain, permitting, and policy emerged from these discussions as key enablers for power and infrastructure investment, innovation, and project advancement.

Advancing and accelerating power and infrastructure projects will require focusing on the critical needs of land, power, and permits. Public-private investment partnerships, along with redesigned regulatory architecture and redirected government incentives, can enable and accelerate innovation and emerging technologies within the power sector.

Notable quotes

Broad based stakeholder engagement on the ground – early and often – is necessary for the build-out of large-scale power infrastructure. – Al Vickers, Chief Operating Officer, Grid United

“Learning curves are essential to cost curves, iterative improvement is paramount to project execution.” – Mary Dhillon, Strategy Lead, Fervo Energy

“Show us good unit economics, and we will find the capital for those power and infrastructure projects.” – Michael Johnson, Vice Chairman, Energy Transition Investment Banking, J.P. Morgan

Houston’s resilient power leadership demonstrated through a unique “all of the above” approach with a broad range of investments and collaborations across sectors is creating sustained value for businesses and development opportunities for communities. The insights shared in this workshop reinforce the critical need for resilience of the power sector to meet growing demand for continued economic prosperity in the Houston region.

As the world moves toward a future of significant power demand growth, the power sector should prioritize integrated strategies, stakeholder engagement, supply chain, permitting, and policy as key enablers for innovation, investment, and collaboration.

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This article originally ran on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. Power resilience is a strategic imperative for the Greater Houston Partnership, and power management continues to be a key workstream for HETI. To learn more about HETI's work in power management and resilience, connect with us at contactheti@houston.org. And for more information about HETI, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

Oxy's Vicki Hollub becomes first woman to win prestigious energy award

Winning Big

Vicki Hollub, president and CEO of Houston-based Occidental (Oxy), has become the first woman to win WPC Energy’s prestigious Dewhurst Award.

Hollub is the thirteenth recipient of the award, which is considered the highest honor from WPC Energy, a global, non-advocacy, non-political nonprofit organization that promotes the sustainable management of energy and energy products. She is just the fourth U.S. winner since the award launched in 1991. Other U.S. winners include former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson; Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global and chairman of CERAWeek; and former chairman and CEO of Chevron Kenneth Derr.

According to WPC Energy, the Dewhurst Award is given to “exceptional individuals whose leadership and contributions have had a lasting impact on the global energy industry.” It is named after Thomas Dewhurst, who organised the first WPC Energy Congress, formerly the World Petroleum Congress, in 1933.

Oxy works to advance low-carbon technologies, reduce emissions and is leading a number of energy transition projects. Its Oxy Innovation Center is housed in Houston’s The Ion.

Hollub has held a variety of roles in her 40-year career with Occidental, including chief operating officer and senior executive vice president. She also led strategic acquisitions for Occidental of Anadarko Petroleum in 2019 and CrownRock in 2024, and serves on the boards of Lockheed Martin and the American Petroleum Institute. She is one of the first women to lead a major U.S. oil and gas company.

“Vicki Hollub’s visionary leadership and unwavering dedication to innovation and sustainability have set a benchmark for excellence in our industry,” Pedro Miras, WPC Energy President, said in a news release. “She embodies the spirit of the Dewhurst Award—forward-looking, courageous and deeply committed to advancing the global energy dialogue. Her contributions continue to inspire the next generation of energy leaders.”

Hollub will receive the award in April 2026 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia at the 25th WPC Energy Congress, where she will also present the Dewhurst Lecture.

“I am honored to be selected for the Dewhurst Award and appreciate WPC Energy recognizing our company’s achievements,” Hollub added in the release. “The Dewhurst Award reflects the collective efforts of the talented and dedicated team at Oxy, whose commitment to innovation, operational and technical excellence, and sustainability drives our success.”