The road, then, is not entirely smooth, but the direction is clear: EVs are on their way. Photo via Getty Images

Are electric vehicles at a tipping point? In a word, yes.

And yes, I know that this has been said before — more than once. Predictions of electric vehicle sales have been notoriously over-optimistic. An article by my own company projected sales in New York could be as high as 16 percent by 2015; in fact, it was about 1 percent in 2020. But — and this has been said before, too — this time is different. The realities on the ground are catching up with the hope, or the hype, or both.

While there are only 11 million EVs on the road now, EV registrations rose more than 40 percent in 2020 — although car sales dropped 16 percent that year. So far in 2021, EV sales are up another 80 percent. In the United States, sales of EVs doubled as percent of the total between the second quarter of 2020 and the same period last year.

The momentum is real. What’s changed?

For one thing, global car manufacturers are re-tooling for EVs in a big way. It’s interesting that at the September auto show in Germany, almost all the models presented were electric, like this sleek saloon from Mercedes, which has announced plans to go all-electric by the end of the decade. GM, too, has said it wants all its vehicles to be emissions-free by 2035.

From 2020 through the first half of 2021, more than $100 billion was invested in EVs, and carmakers have announced more than $300 billion in additional investment. That money is producing hundreds of different models, meaning that there are vehicles available that normal people, not just enthusiasts, want to buy. All of the top 20 global auto manufacturers are investing big-time in EVs.

For another, while the sticker price for EVs is generally higher, the economics are improving. On a total-cost-of ownership basis—meaning how much they cost to run compared to conventional cars—they already make sense in many markets, particularly given rising gas prices. At the same time, widespread government subsidies to new EV buyers take some of the sting out of the sticker shock. As more vehicles are produced, costs will likely fall.

Finally, the market context is changing — quickly and radically. The European Union is proposing an effective ban on conventional cars by 2035, as is Britain. California and New York are both requiring that all new vehicles sold be zero-emissions by the same year. Japan has plans to phase out gas-powered cars over roughly the same period. The US federal government has set a 50 percent target for electrification and allocated serious money to charging infrastructure. The trend is clear: the future is electric.

I can’t say when that future will arrive, but I suspect it will be much faster than in the recent past and probably not as fast as the optimists would like. Global sales are forecast to reach 10.7 million by 2025 and more than 28 million by 2030. But, of course, forecasts have been wrong before. Remember, too, that cars and trucks have a long shelf life; a significant percentage of the 1.4 billion on the road now are going to be on the road a decade hence. In addition, there could be geopolitical and supply roadblocks in the form of limited supplies of components like nickel, cobalt, and lithium, which are used in the production of batteries. I suspect that innovation and ingenuity will find a way around if shortages do occur — as is already happening. But if the cost of alternatives is high, that could drive up prices and affect the overall economics of EVs.

The road, then, is not entirely smooth, but the direction is clear: EVs are on their way.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn.

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DOE proposes cutting $1.2 billion in funding for hydrogen hub

funding cuts

The U.S. Department of Energy has proposed cutting $1.2 billion in funding for the HyVelocity Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub, a clean energy project backed by AES, Air Liquide, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Mitsubishi Power Americas and Ørsted.

The HyVelocity project, which would produce clean hydrogen, appears on a new list of proposed DOE funding cancellations. The list was obtained by Latitude Media.

As of November, HyVelocity had already received $22 million of the potential $1.2 billion in DOE funding.

Other than the six main corporate backers, supporters of HyVelocity include the Center for Houston’s Future, Houston Advanced Research Center, Port Houston, University of Texas at Austin, Shell, the Texas governor’s office, Texas congressional delegation, and the City of Fort Worth.

Kristine Cone, a spokeswoman for GTI Energy, the hub’s administrator, told EnergyCapital that it hadn’t gotten an update from DOE about the hub’s status.

The list also shows the Magnolia Sequestration Hub in Louisiana, being developed by Occidental Petroleum subsidiary 1PointFive, could lose nearly $19.8 million in federal funding and the subsidiary’s South Texas Direct Air Capture (DAC) Hub on the King Ranch in Kleberg County could lose $50 million. In September, 1Point5 announced the $50 million award for its South Texas hub would be the first installment of up to $500 million in federal funding for the project.

Other possible DOE funding losses for Houston-area companies on the list include:

  • A little over $100 million earmarked for Houston-based BP Carbon Solutions to develop carbon storage projects
  • $100 million earmarked for Dow to produce battery-grade solvents for lithium-ion batteries. Dow operates chemical plants in Deer Park and LaPorte
  • $39 million earmarked for Daikin Comfort Technologies North America to produce energy-efficient heat pumps. The HVAC company operates the Daikin Texas Technology Park in Waller
  • Nearly $6 million earmarked for Houston-based Baker Hughes Energy Transition to reduce methane emissions from flares
  • $3 million earmarked for Spring-based Chevron to explore development of a DAC hub in Northern California
  • Nearly $2.9 million earmarked for Houston-based geothermal energy startup Fervo Energy’s geothermal plant in Utah

Houston ranks No. 99 out of 100 on new report of greenest U.S. cities

Sustainability Slide

Houstonians may be feeling blue about a new ranking of the greenest cities in the U.S.

Among the country’s 100 largest cities based on population, Houston ranks 99th across 28 key indicators of “green” living in a new study from personal finance website WalletHub. The only city with a lower ranking is Glendale, Arizona. Last year, Houston landed at No. 98 on the WalletHub list.

“‘Green’ living means a choice to engage in cleaner, more sustainable habits in order to preserve the planet as much as possible,” WalletHub says.

Among the study’s ranking factors are the amount of greenhouse gas emissions per capita, the number of “smart energy” policies, and the presence of “green job” programs.

In the study, Houston received an overall score of 35.64 out of 100. WalletHub put its findings into four buckets, with Houston ranked 100th in the environment and transportation categories, 56th in the lifestyle and policy category, and 52nd in the energy sources category.

In the environment category, Houston has two big strikes against it. The metro area ranks among the 10 worst places for ozone pollution (No. 7) and year-round particle pollution (No. 8), according to the American Lung Association’s 2025 list of the most polluted cities.

In the WalletHub study, San Jose, California, earns the honor of being the country’s greenest city. It’s followed by Washington, D.C.; Oakland, California; Irvine, California; and San Francisco.

“There are plenty of things that individuals can do to adopt a green lifestyle, from recycling to sharing rides to installing solar panels on their homes,” WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo said in the report. “However, living in one of the greenest cities can make it even easier to care for the environment, due to sustainable laws and policies, access to locally grown produce, and infrastructure that allows residents to use vehicles less often. The greenest cities also are better for your health due to superior air and water quality.”