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New survey reveals concerns over AI data center growth in Houston

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Houstonians are concerned about data centers' high energy demands and the area’s power grid reliability, according to a new report. Photo courtesy UH

A new report out of the University of Houston shows that area residents remain wary of the long-term effects of operating data centers.

The recent survey from the University of Houston’s latest SPACE City Panel, conducted by the Center for Public Policy at the Hobby School of Public Affairs, shows that while 85 percent of Houston-area residents use AI, nearly 63 percent oppose the construction of AI data centers within 1 mile of their homes.

Respondents’ concerns centered around data centers’ high energy demand and the area’s power grid reliability. According to the survey, 32 percent of residents who oppose local data center projects would be more likely to support the centers if they relied on renewable energy over fossil fuels.

“Respondents understand that AI can bring economic and educational benefits, but they are also concerned about the physical infrastructure needed to fuel AI, especially data centers,” Soran Mohtadi, post-doctoral fellow at the Hobby School and a researcher on the report, said in a news release. “This physical infrastructure demands more electricity and water, leading to environmental impacts.”

Experts estimate that 6.5 gigawatts of data center capacity will be added to the Texas grid by 2030. And Houston’s data center capacity is predicted to more than double by 2028.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas also projects electricity demand could reach 218 gigawatts by 2031, which would be more than double the record peak set in August 2023. Data centers are expected to account for 86 gigawatts of that new demand.

Survey respondents also said they are concerned about the state's future water supply, given the large amounts of water that data centers need to stay cool.

In terms of who’s responsible for that issue, 57.6 percent of respondents said they put the onus on Texas lawmakers, while 31.5 percent say tech companies should be responsible.

Additionally, more than 75 percent of respondents believed that data center developers and technology companies—not residents—should bear the cost of infrastructure upgrades to support data centers.

“Every decision legislators make has implications on residents’ everyday lives and local infrastructure now and in the future,” Maria P. Perez Arguelles, lead researcher on the report and research assistant professor at the Hobby School, added in the news release. “This issue is going to become more important in years to come, so this is just the beginning.”

Read the full report here.

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

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Texas could lose nearly $8 billion in revenue from 2026 to 2030 due to data center tax exemptions, according to The Texas Tribune. Photo via Pexels

Houston lawmaker may kill data center tax breaks due to $8B revenue loss

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An influential Houston-area state senator is raising concerns about potentially billions of dollars in lost state revenue from tax breaks for Texas data centers—and is pondering legislation that would abolish the tax incentives.

Citing data from the state comptroller’s office, The Texas Tribune reports the state stands to lose nearly $8 billion in revenue from 2026 to 2030 due to sales tax and use tax exemptions for data centers. During the state’s 2025 fiscal year, which ended on Aug. 31, these tax exemptions caused Texas to lose a little over $1 billion, up from an earlier estimate of $130 million.

“These new numbers are extremely concerning, and I will say they’re unsustainable,” Republican state Sen. Joan Huffman, chairwoman of the state Senate Finance Committee, tells The Texas Tribune. “I plan to look at filing legislation to either repeal the exemption or take a very close look at it and see.”

Texas on track to be No. 1 data center market in U.S.

Scrutiny of the tax breaks comes amid an explosion of data center development in Texas, where data provider Aterio identifies nearly 1,000 centers that are operating, under construction or planned.

A report issued in January by Bloom Energy says the state is poised to become the No. 1 U.S. market for data centers within three years. By 2028, according to the report, Texas is projected to exceed 40 gigawatts of data center capacity—representing nearly 30 percent of total U.S. demand.

Among companies benefiting from the data center boom are:

  • Tech titans like Apple, Google, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, which are spending billions of dollars to build data centers in Texas.
  • Spring-based ExxonMobil and Houston-based Chevron, two oil and energy giants that are developing natural gas plants to supply power for data centers.
  • Houston-based energy technology company Baker Hughes, which is collaborating with Google Cloud to develop AI-enabled power optimization and sustainability software for data centers.
  • DataBank, Data Foundry, Equinix, Digital Realty, Lumen Technologies, and IBM, all of which operate data centers in the Houston area.

The Texas Legislature will begin debating tax breaks for data centers in July, when Huffman’s Senate Finance Committee meets for an interim hearing before the 2027 legislative session, according to the Tribune.

Data center industry defends tax breaks

Leaders in the data center industry warn that watering down or halting the tax breaks could slow down or even end Texas’ ascent in the data center sector.

A 2025 report commissioned by the Data Center Coalition found that in 2024, data centers provided more than $1.6 billion in state tax revenue and almost $1.6 billion in local tax revenue in Texas. Over the next several years, according to the report, planned development of data centers in the Lone Star State could generate almost $3.8 billion in state tax revenue and more than $4.9 billion in local tax revenue.

In 2024, the Houston area had 8.1 million gross square feet of data centers, with the properties’ real estate investments sitting at $10 billion, according to the report. That year, data centers in the region produced a little over $700 million in state and local tax revenue. About 60 data centers operate in the Houston area.

Watchdog group warns of tax breaks’ danger to state budgets

On the other side of the debate over tax breaks for data centers, a report released last year by Good Jobs First, a nonprofit, nonpartisan watchdog group that tracks economic development incentives, decries the tax breaks as dangerous to state budgets.

“We know of no other form of state spending that is so out of control. Therefore, we recommend that states cancel their data center tax exemptions,” says Good Jobs research analyst Kasia Tarczynska, co-author of the report. “Shy of that, states should amend … legislation to cap how much any facility and company can avoid paying in taxes each year.”

Houston's data center scene has received its latest bullish forecast. Photo via serverfarmllc.com

Houston data center capacity could more than double by 2028, CBRE report says

data analysis

The Houston market could more than double its data center capacity by the end of 2028, a new report indicates.

The report, published by commercial real estate services provider CBRE, says greater demand for data center capacity in the Houston area is being fueled by energy companies, along with large-scale cloud services and AI-driven tenants.

In the second half of 2025, the Houston market had 154 megawatts of data center capacity, which was on par with capacity in the second half of 2024. Another 28.5 megawatts of capacity was under construction during that period.

“Multiple providers are advancing new builds and redevelopments, including significant power upgrades to recently purchased buildings, underscoring long-term confidence even as the market works through elevated vacancy and uneven absorption,” CBRE says of Houston’s data center presence.

One project alone promises to significantly boost the Houston market’s data center capacity. Data center developer Serverfarm plans to use part of a $3 billion credit facility to build a 250-acre, AI-ready data center campus near Houston with a potential capacity of more than 500 megawatts. The Houston campus and two other Serverfarm projects are already leased to unidentified tenants, according to CoStar.

A 60-megawatt, AI-ready Serverfarm data center is under construction in Houston. The $137 million, 438,000-square-foot project, located near the former headquarters of computer manufacturer Compaq, is supposed to be completed in the third quarter of 2027.

Data Center Map identifies 59 data centers in the Houston area managed by 36 operators, including DataBank, Data Foundry, Digital Realty, IBM, Logix Fiber Networks, Lumen and TRG Datacenters. That compares with more than 180 data centers in Dallas-Fort Worth, more than 50 in the San Antonio area and 40 in the Austin area.

Texas is home to more than 400 data centers, according to Data Center Map.

In November, Google said it’s investing $40 billion to build AI data centers in West Texas and the Texas Panhandle.

“This is a Texas-sized investment in the future of our great state,” Gov. Greg Abbott said when Google’s commitment was announced. “Texas is the epicenter of AI development, where companies can pair innovation with expanding energy. Google's $40 billion investment makes Texas Google's largest investment in any state in the country and supports energy efficiency and workforce development in our state.”

A new report shows the role Texas could play as the data-center sector enters "hyperdrive." Photo via JLL.com.

Texas could topple Virginia as biggest data-center market by 2030, JLL report says

data analysis

Everything’s bigger in Texas, they say—and that phrase now applies to the state’s growing data-center presence.

A new report from commercial real estate services provider JLL says Texas could overtake Northern Virginia as the world’s largest data-center market by 2030. Northern Virginia is a longtime holder of that title.

What’s driving Texas’ increasingly larger role in the data-center market? The key factor is artificial intelligence.

Companies like Google and Microsoft need more energy-hungry data centers to power AI innovations. In a 2023 article, Forbes explained that AI models consume a lot of energy because of the massive amount of data used to train them, as well as the complexity of those models and the rising volume of tasks assigned to AI.

“The data-center sector has officially entered hyperdrive,” Andy Cvengros, executive managing director at JLL and co-leader of its U.S. data-center business, said in the report. “Record-low vacancy sustained over two consecutive years provides compelling evidence against bubble concerns, especially when nearly all our massive construction pipeline is already pre-committed by investment-grade tenants.”

Dallas-Fort Worth has long dominated the Texas data-center market. But in recent years, West Texas has emerged as a popular territory for building data-center campuses, thanks in large part to an abundance of land and energy. Nearly two-thirds of data-center construction underway now is happening in “frontier markets” like West Texas, Ohio, Tennessee and Wisconsin, the JLL report says.

Northern Virginia, the current data-center champ in the U.S., boasted a data-center market with 6,315 megawatts of capacity at the end of 2025, the report says. That compares with 2,423 megawatts in Dallas-Fort Worth, 1,700 megawatts in the Austin-San Antonio corridor, 200 megawatts in West Texas, and 164 megawatts in Houston.

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4 Houston researchers awarded projects in DOE's Genesis Mission

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The U.S. Department of Energy has named the nearly 300 projects selected under the Trump Administration's Genesis Mission, which aims to address some of the largest science and technology challenges in the country. The group features four projects from Houston universities and companies.

The initiative aims to unite government, industry, academia and philanthropy to lead to breakthroughs in energy, scientific discovery and national security, according to a release.

The selected projects feature 87 led by DOE and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) National Laboratories, 168 led by universities, 19 led by companies and 4 led by nonprofit organizations—totalling 342 participating institutions.

“America has no shortage of bold ideas or talented scientists, and the response to the Genesis Mission proves that,” U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a news release. “The 278 projects selected today represent the very best of our nation’s scientific enterprise. The remarkable number of high-quality proposals we received demonstrates that America’s innovation pipeline is strong, and it points to even greater opportunities for future investment and continued expansion of the Genesis Mission portfolio.”

Twelve Texas-based projects were selected among the 278. The Houston projects and their researchers include:

Caroline Ajo-Franklin

Ajo-Franklin recieved a Phase I grant for her project "Predictive AI to Map Point Mutation Effects on Protein Function: Measurement and Biosynthesis of Isoprenoids." Ajo-Franklin is a professor of biosciences at Rice University, a CPRIT Scholar in Cancer Research and member of the Rice Synthetic Biology Institute. The project aims to accelerate the engineering of microbes that can produce isoprenoids, which are natural compounds that could replace petroleum-derived fuels, solvents and materials.

“This project creates a continuous feedback loop in which AI guides experiments and each experiment generates more detailed data to better hone the AI model,” Ajo-Franklin said in a news release. “In addition, it demonstrates the extraordinary star power Rice has recruited in protein engineering and synthetic biology.”

Anastasios Kyrillidis

Kyrillidis recived a Phase I grant for his project "Cracking the VQA Optimization Bottleneck: AI Methods for Quantum Chemistry and Materials." Kyrillidis is the Noah Harding Associate Professor of Computer Science at Rice and a member of the Ken Kennedy Institute. The project aims to develop AI tools to resolve bottlenecks in quantum computing for chemistry and materials research.

“Our goal is to replace fragile, hand-tuned optimization methods with intelligent systems that can learn from quantum computations while still operating within frameworks that provide strong mathematical guarantees,” Kyrillidis added in the release.

Myoungkyu Lee

Lee received a nearly $750,000 Phase I grant for his project "Physics-Informed AI Surrogates for Turbulent Forced Convection in Energy System." Lee is an assistant professor of mechanical aerospace engineering at the University of Houston. Lee will collaborate with researchers from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and University of Pennsylvania on the project and develop artificial intelligence to accelerate the design of materials for advanced nuclear fission and fusion reactors.

“The goal is to develop a tool that runs much faster than today’s most detailed simulations while keeping errors small,” Lee said in a news release. “If successful, the approach could support better heat-transfer predictions for molten-salt reactor design and provide a starting point for studying heat removal in fusion blankets. This is one contribution among many toward reliable, carbon-free energy.”

Amit Padhi

Padhi recieved a grant for his project "Probabilistic Inference of Subsurface Fracture Connectivity for Stimulation Control with Physics-Informed AI." Padhi is a scientific advisor for Halliburton.

The DOE first called for applications for the Genesis Mission in March. At the time, the DOE shared that it would grant approximately $293 million to the selected teams via Phase I awards, ranging from $500,000 to $750,000 for nine-month project periods, and Phase II awards, for $6 million to $15 million over a three-year project period.

Since then, however, the initiative has grown with 15 federal agencies now granting research awards and funding opportunities under the Genesis umbrella. The White House announced this week that it had secured more than $5 billion in federal commitments to expand the initiative.

SLB teams with Liberty Energy on modular power for AI data centers

ai alliance

Houston-headquartered SLB and Denver-based Liberty Energy Inc. announced a strategic agreement this month to support the rapid growth of new data center capacity.

Under the agreement, SLB will supply modular data center infrastructure and oversee large-scale execution, while Liberty will provide modular power generation systems and behind-the-meter power management technology for developers looking to add capacity. According to Reuters, the power will come from natural gas generation.

“The bottleneck in AI infrastructure is no longer just compute. It is the ability to deliver infrastructure and power on the timelines the market now demands,” Gavin Rennick, president of SLB’s New Energy and Industrial business, said in a news release. “By bringing together complementary infrastructure and power capabilities, we will help developers accelerate deployment of new data center capacity.”

The companies seek to specifically offer the modular technologies in areas without traditional grid connections or where grid capacity is limited.

They also aim to improve the "efficiency, flexibility and environmental performance of future data center energy systems," potentially through solutions like hybrid power systems and digital energy management, according to the news release.

Goldman Sachs estimates that U.S. data center capacity will more than double from 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 66 gigawatts in 2027. Other reports predict that Houston and Texas will be home to a significant portion of the data center boom, with capacity in the city and the state also expected to double in the next few years.

“The scale and complexity of AI energy infrastructure is fundamentally changing how power systems are built and deployed,” Ron Gusek, CEO of Liberty Energy, added in the release. “Liberty’s comprehensive power service platform is engineered to meet this transition, as customers increasingly prioritize tailored, integrated solutions. Building on our long-standing relationship with SLB, we are excited to bring power solutions that address immediate capacity constraints while supporting the next generation of energy systems.”

SLB sold its onshore hydraulic fracturing business in the United States and Canada to Liberty Energy in December 2020 in exchange for a 37 percent equity interest in the company.

New Rice study details how carbon capture could reduce AI data center emissions

by the numbers

A new study out of Rice University points to carbon capture and storage methods as pivotal solutions to addressing emissions from AI-driven data centers.

The study was authored by Hon Chung Lau, an adjunct professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice University and founder of Low Carbon Energies LLC, and Steve C. Tsai, an energy transition consultant at Low Carbon Energies LLC, and published in the journal Energy & Fuels.

According to the study, U.S. data center power capacity could more than quadruple in five years, growing from 40 gigawatts in 2025 to 169 gigawatts by 2030. Without proper regulation of emissions, the report estimates that carbon dioxide produced by fossil-fuel power plants supplying electricity to data centers could grow at the same scale, increasing from 90 million metric tons to more than 404 million metric tons over the same time period.

The researchers analyzed publicly available data on announced U.S. data centers, which included energy sources, locations, and projected power capacity before estimating data center-related carbon emissions based on each state’s electricity mix. From there, they examined whether those emissions could be captured and stored underground in saline aquifers.

The team estimates that 34 states have enough saline aquifer storage capacity to store more than 100 years of projected data center-related carbon dioxide emissions beyond 2030. Aquifers could store an estimated 59 million metric tons of data center-related carbon dioxide, or about 66 percent of the sector’s emissions in 2025. However, that calculation could grow to 299 million metric tons, or about 74 percent of projected data center-related emissions by 2030.

The researchers found that more than 90 percent of data center-related carbon dioxide emissions could potentially be mitigated through carbon capture and storage when out-of-state storage options are included, even though they note that carbon capture isn’t the only solution.

“It does show that the geology exists to make a meaningful impact, especially in states where data center growth is strongest,” Lau said in a news release.

Rapid growth in states including Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Utah and Illinois was considered in the study. According to the findings, Texas would need to add 25 gigawatts of power capacity by 2030 to meet projected data center demand, as data centers require reliable electricity 24/7.

“Data centers are becoming one of the defining energy challenges of the AI era,” Lau added in the news release. “The question is not only whether we can build enough computing infrastructure, but whether we can power it in a way that is reliable, affordable and compatible with decarbonization goals.”

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