Will 2023 be hydrogen’s year?

GUEST COLUMN

Scott Nyquist debates both sides of the hydrogen argument in this week’s ECHTX Voices of Energy guest column. Photo courtesy of Aramco.

Yes and no.

Yes, because there is real money, and action, behind it.

Globally, there are 600 projects on the books to build electrolyzers, which separate the oxygen and hydrogen in water, and are critical to creating low-emissions “green hydrogen.” That investment could drive down the cost of low-emissions hydrogen, making it cost competitive with conventional fuels—a major obstacle to its development so far.

In addition, oil companies are interested, too. The industry already uses hydrogen for refining; many see hydrogen as supplemental to their existing operations and perhaps, eventually, supplanting them. In the meantime, it helps them to decarbonize their refining and petrochemical operations, which most of the majors have committed to doing.

Indeed, hydrocarbon-based companies and economies could have a big opportunity in “blue hydrogen,” which uses fossil fuels for production, but then captures and stores emissions. (“Green hydrogen” uses renewables; because it is expensive to produce, it is more distant than blue. “Gray hydrogen” uses fossil fuels, without carbon capture; this accounts for most current production and use.) Oil and gas companies have a head start on related infrastructure, such as pipelines and carbon capture, and also see new business opportunities, such as low-carbon ammonia.

Houston, for example, which likes to call itself the "energy capital of the world,” is going big on hydrogen. The region is well suited to this. It has an extensive pipeline infrastructure, an excellent port system, a pro-business culture, and experience. The Greater Houston Partnership and McKinsey—both of whom I am associated with—estimate that demand for hydrogen will grow 6 to 8 percent a year from 2030 to 2050. No wonder Houston wants a piece of that action.

There are promising, near-term applications for hydrogen, such as ammonia, cement, and steel production, shipping, long-term energy storage, long-haul trucking, and aviation. These bits and pieces add up: steel alone accounts for about 8 percent of global carbon-dioxide emissions. Late last year, Airbus announced it is developing a hydrogen-powered fuel cell engine as part of its effort to build zero-emission aircraft. And Cummins, a US-based engine company, is investing serious money in hydrogen for trains and commercial and industrial vehicles, where batteries are less effective; it already has more than 500 electrolyzers at work.

Then there is recent US legislation. The Infrastructure, Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) of 2021 allocated $9.5 billion funding for hydrogen. Much more important, though, was last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, which contains generous tax credits to promote hydrogen production. The idea is to narrow the price gap between clean hydrogen and other, more emissions-intensive technologies; in effect, the law seeks to fundamentally change the economics of hydrogen and could be a true game-changer.

This is not without controversy: some Europeans think this money constitutes subsidies that are not allowed under trade rules. For its part, Europe has the hydrogen bug, too. Its REPowerEU plan is based on the idea of “hydrogen-ready infrastructure,” so that natural gas projects can be converted to hydrogen when the technology and economics make sense.

So there is a lot of momentum behind hydrogen, bolstered by the ambitious goals agreed to at the most recent climate conference in Egypt. McKinsey estimates that hydrogen demand could reach 660 million tons by 2050, which could abate 20 percent of total emissions. Total planned production for lower-emission green and blue hydrogen through 2030 has reached more than 26 million metric tons annually—quadruple that of 2020.

No, because major issues have not been figured out.

The plans in the works, while ambitious, are murky. A European official, asked about the REPowerEU strategy, admitted that “it’s not clear how it will work.” The same can be said of the United States. The hydrogen value chain, particularly for green hydrogen, requires a lot of electricity, and that calls for flexible grids and much greater capacity. For the United States to reach its climate goals, the grid needs to grow an estimated 60 percent by 2030.That is not easy: just try siting new transmission lines and watch the NIMBY monsters emerge.

Permitting can be a nightmare, often requiring separate approvals from local, state, interstate, and federal authorities, and from different authorities for each (air, land, water, endangered species, and on and on); money does not solve this. Even a state like Texas, which isn’t allergic to fossil fuels and has a relatively light regulatory touch, can get stuck in permitting limbo. Bill Gates recently noted that “over 1,000 gigawatts worth of potential clean energy projects [in the United States] are waiting for approval—about the current size of the entire U.S. grid—and the primary reason for the bottleneck is the lack of transmission.”

Then there is the matter of moving hydrogen from production site to market. Pipeline networks are not yet in place and shifting natural gas pipelines to hydrogen is a long way off. Liquifying hydrogen and transporting is expensive. In general, because hydrogen is still a new industry, it faces “chicken or egg” problems that are typical of the difficulties big innovations face, such as connecting hydrogen buyers to hydrogen producers and connecting carbon emitters to places to store the carbon dioxide. These challenges add to the complexity of getting projects financed.

Finally, there is money. McKinsey estimates that getting on track to that 600 million tons would require investment of $950 billion by 2030; so far, $240 billion has been announced.

Where I stand: in the middle.

I believe in hydrogen’s potential. More than 3 years ago, I wrote about hydrogen, arguing that while there had been real progress, “many things need to happen, in terms of policy, finance, and infrastructure, before it becomes even a medium-sized deal.” Now, some of those things are happening.

So, I guess I land somewhere in the middle. I think 2023 will see real progress, in decarbonizing refining and petrochemicals operations and producing ammonia, specifically. I am also optimistic that a number of low-emissions electrolysis projects will move ahead. And while such advances might seem less than transformative, they are critical: hydrogen, whether blue or green, needs to prove itself, and 2023 could be the year it does.

Because I take hydrogen’s potential seriously, though, I also see the barriers. If it is to become the big deal its supporters believe it could be, that requires big money, strong engineering and construction project management, sustained commitment, and community support. It’s easy to proclaim the wonders of the hydrogen economy; it’s much more difficult to devise sensible business models, standardized contracts, consistent incentives, and a regulatory system that doesn’t drive producers crazy. But all this matters—a lot.

My conclusion: there will be significant steps forward in 2023—but take-off is still years away.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn.

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Houston students take home top prizes at DOE wind energy competition

wind winners

The student-led Rice Wind Energy team clinched second place overall at the U.S. Department of Energy’s 2025 Collegiate Wind Competition (CWC), which challenges students nationwide to design and build wind turbines, develop wind energy projects and engage in public outreach to promote renewable energy.

“The Collegiate Wind Competition is such an incredible opportunity for students passionate about sustainability to gain industry-applicable, hands-on experience in the renewable energy space,” senior and team vice president Jason Yang said in a news release.

The event was hosted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratories at the University of Colorado Boulder campus. Over 40 teams entered the competition, with just 12 advancing to the final stage. The competition comprises four core contests: connection creation, turbine design, turbine testing and project development.

Rice Wind Energy had the largest team with 26 students advancing to the final stage of the competition. It picked up a first-place win in the connection creation contest, and also placed third in the project development, fourth in turbine testing and fifth in turbine design contests.

“This accomplishment is a testament to our focus, teamwork and unwavering determination,” senior Esther Fahel, Rice Wind Energy’s 2024-25 president, said in a news release. “It’s a remarkable experience to have watched this team progress from its inception to the competition podium. The passion and drive of Rice students is so palpable.”

In the Connection Creation contest, the team hosted a wind energy panel with Texas Tech University, invited local high school students to campus for educational activities, produced a series of Instagram reels to address wind energy misconceptions and launched its first website.

The team also developed an autonomous wind turbine and floating foundation design that successfully produced over 20 watts of power in the wind tunnel. They were also one of just a few teams to complete the rigorous safety test, which brought their turbine to below 10 percent of its operational speed within 10 seconds of pressing an emergency stop button. It also designed a 450-megawatt floating wind farm located 38 kilometers off the coast of Oregon by using a multi-decision criteria matrix to select the optimal site, and conducted technical modeling.

“I am amazed at the team’s growth in impact and collaboration over the past year,” senior Ava Garrelts, the team’s Connection Creation lead for 2024-25, said in a news release. “It has been incredible to see our members develop their confidence by building tangible skills and lifelong connections. We are all honored to receive recognition for our work, but the entire experience has been just as rewarding.”

Rice faculty and industry sponsors included David Trevas and faculty advisers Gary Woods and Jose Moreto, Knape Associates, Hartzell Air Movement, NextEra Analytics, RWE Clean Energy, H&H Business Development and GE Vernova, Rice’s Oshman Engineering Design Kitchen, George R. Brown School of Engineering and Computing, Rice Engineering Alumni and Rice Center for Engineering Leadership.

The BYU Wind Energy Team took home the overall first-place prize. A team from the University of Texas at Dallas was the only other Texas-based team to make the 12-team finals.

Houston biotech company continues to expand in Brazil with new research partner

global expansion

Houston biotech company Cemvita has announced a strategic collaboration with Brazilian sustainable research institution REMA.

The move aims to promote Cemvita’s platform for evaluating and testing carbon waste streams as feedstocks for producing sustainable oil, according to the company.

Cemvita utilizes synthetic biology to transform carbon emissions into valuable bio-based chemicals. REMA professors Marcio Schneider and Admir Giachini have previously worked with Cemvita’s CTO, Marcio Busi da Silva, for approximately 20 years.

“This long-standing partnership reflects not only our strong professional ties, but also our shared commitment to advancing science and technology for a more sustainable future," Busi da Silva said in a news release.

REMA’s center is based in Florianópolis and is affiliated with the Federal University of Santa Catarina, which develops cost-effective environmental and technological solutions in automation, chemical engineering, biotech, environmental engineering and agronomy.

“Partnering with REMA in Florianópolis represents a significant step forward in our mission to transform carbon waste into valuable resources,” Tara Karimi, chief science and sustainability officer of Cemvita, said in a news release. “Together, we will enhance our platform’s capabilities, leveraging REMA’s expertise to evaluate and utilize diverse waste streams for sustainable oil production, further advancing the circular bioeconomy in Brazil and beyond.”

Cemvita recently expanded to Brazil to capitalize on the country’s progressive regulatory framework, which includes Brazil’s Fuel of the Future Law. The expansion also aimed to coincide with the 2025 COP30, the UN’s climate change conference, which will be hosted in Brazil in November.

Cemvita became capable of generating 500 barrels per day of sustainable oil from carbon waste at its first commercial plant in 2024, and as a result, Cemvita quadrupled output at its Houston plant. The company originally planned to reach this milestone in 2029.

Also in 2025, Cemvita announced a partnership with Brazil-based Be8 that focused on converting biodiesel byproduct glycerin into low-carbon feedstock to help support the decarbonization of the aviation sector. Cemvita agreed to a 20-year contract that specified it would supply up to 50 million gallons of SAF annually to United Airlines in 2023.

Houston earns No. 3 spot among cities with most Fortune 500 headquarters

biggest companies

Houston maintained its No. 3 status this year among U.S. metro areas with the most Fortune 500 headquarters. Fortune magazine tallied 26 Fortune 500 headquarters in the Houston area, behind only the New York City area (62) and the Chicago area (30).

Last year, 23 Houston-area companies landed on the Fortune 500 list. Fortune bases the list on revenue that a public or private company earns during its 2024 budget year.

On the Fortune 500 list for 2025, Spring-based ExxonMobil remained the highest-ranked company based in the Houston area as well as in Texas, sitting at No. 8 nationally. That’s down one spot from its No. 7 perch on the 2024 list. During its 2024 budget year, ExxonMobil reported revenue of $349.6 billion, up from $344.6 billion the previous year.

Here are the rankings and 2024 revenue for the 25 other Houston-area companies that made this year’s Fortune 500:

  • No. 16 Chevron, $202.8 billion
  • No. 28 Phillips 66, $145.5 billion
  • No. 56 Sysco, $78.8 billion
  • No. 75 Conoco Phillips, $56.9 million
  • No. 78 Enterprise Products Partners, $56.2 billion
  • No. 92 Plains GP Holdings, $50 billion
  • No. 143 Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, $30.1 billion
  • No. 153 NRG Energy, $28.1 billion
  • No. 155 Baker Hughes, $27.8 billion
  • No. 159 Occidental Petroleum, $26.9 billion
  • No. 183 EOG Resources, $23.7 billion
  • No. 184 Quanta Services, $23.7 billion
  • No. 194 Halliburton, $23 billion
  • No. 197 Waste Management, $22.1 billion
  • No. 214 Group 1 Automotive, $19.9 billion
  • No. 224 Corebridge Financial, $18.8 billion
  • No. 256 Targa Resources, $16.4 billion
  • No. 275 Cheniere Energy, $15.7 billion
  • No. 289 Kinder Morgan, $15.1 billion
  • No. 345 Westlake Corp., $12.1 billion
  • No. 422 APA, $9.7 billion
  • No. 443 NOV, $8.9 billion
  • No. 450 CenterPoint Energy, $8.6 billion
  • No. 474 Par Pacific Holdings, $8 billion
  • No. 480 KBR Inc., $7.7 billion

Nationally, the top five Fortune 500 companies are:

  • Walmart
  • Amazon
  • UnitedHealth Group
  • Apple
  • CVS Health

“The Fortune 500 is a literal roadmap to the rise and fall of markets, a reliable playbook of the world's most important regions, services, and products, and an indispensable roster of those companies' dynamic leaders,” Anastasia Nyrkovskaya, CEO of Fortune Media, said in a news release.

Among the states, Texas ranks second for the number of Fortune 500 headquarters (54), preceded by California (58) and followed by New York (53).