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New Rice study details how carbon capture could reduce AI data center emissions

by the numbers

A new report estimates that more than 90 percent of data center-related carbon dioxide emissions could potentially be mitigated through carbon capture and storage. Photo via Unsplash

A new study out of Rice University points to carbon capture and storage methods as pivotal solutions to addressing emissions from AI-driven data centers.

The study was authored by Hon Chung Lau, an adjunct professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice University and founder of Low Carbon Energies LLC, and Steve C. Tsai, an energy transition consultant at Low Carbon Energies LLC, and published in the journal Energy & Fuels.

According to the study, U.S. data center power capacity could more than quadruple in five years, growing from 40 gigawatts in 2025 to 169 gigawatts by 2030. Without proper regulation of emissions, the report estimates that carbon dioxide produced by fossil-fuel power plants supplying electricity to data centers could grow at the same scale, increasing from 90 million metric tons to more than 404 million metric tons over the same time period.

The researchers analyzed publicly available data on announced U.S. data centers, which included energy sources, locations, and projected power capacity before estimating data center-related carbon emissions based on each state’s electricity mix. From there, they examined whether those emissions could be captured and stored underground in saline aquifers.

The team estimates that 34 states have enough saline aquifer storage capacity to store more than 100 years of projected data center-related carbon dioxide emissions beyond 2030. Aquifers could store an estimated 59 million metric tons of data center-related carbon dioxide, or about 66 percent of the sector’s emissions in 2025. However, that calculation could grow to 299 million metric tons, or about 74 percent of projected data center-related emissions by 2030.

The researchers found that more than 90 percent of data center-related carbon dioxide emissions could potentially be mitigated through carbon capture and storage when out-of-state storage options are included, even though they note that carbon capture isn’t the only solution.

“It does show that the geology exists to make a meaningful impact, especially in states where data center growth is strongest,” Lau said in a news release.

Rapid growth in states including Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Utah and Illinois was considered in the study. According to the findings, Texas would need to add 25 gigawatts of power capacity by 2030 to meet projected data center demand, as data centers require reliable electricity 24/7.

“Data centers are becoming one of the defining energy challenges of the AI era,” Lau added in the news release. “The question is not only whether we can build enough computing infrastructure, but whether we can power it in a way that is reliable, affordable and compatible with decarbonization goals.”

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Jane Stricker reflects on four years at HETI. Courtesy photo

Houston positioned to lead in Carbon Capture Utilization (CCU), study shows

The View From HETI

With global demand for energy production while lowering emissions continues to grow, Houston and the Gulf Coast region are uniquely positioned to lead with carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS). A new study developed by the Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI) in collaboration with Deloitte Consulting explores how the region can transform captured CO₂ into valuable products while supporting continued economic growth and industrial competitiveness.

Key takeaways from the report include:

Houston and the Gulf Coast are uniquely advantaged to utilize and store carbon.As a global hub for chemicals and refining industries, Houston has access to world-class infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and access to global markets. The region also has one of the nation’s highest concentrations of industrial CO2 and creates the opportunity to capture waste material streams to deliver lower carbon intensity products that continue to deliver economic benefits to the region.

While carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects continue to advance, CCU requires coordinated action across policy, infrastructure, technology and market demand to scale successfully. Utilization and sequestration are complementary strategies that support and protect investment deployments. CCS acts as an early foundation while markets and infrastructure evolve toward broader CO₂ utilization, and CCU is essential to developing low-carbon-intensity value chains and products.

“Our collaboration with Deloitte highlights how Houston and the Gulf Coast continue to build on the strengths that have long made our region an energy leader. Houston’s infrastructure, workforce, and industrial ecosystem uniquely position the region to scale CCU,” said Jane Stricker, Senior Vice President, Energy Transition, and Executive Director of HETI. “With supportive policy, continued innovation, and strong industry partnerships, we can accelerate CCU deployment, create new low-carbon value chains, and ensure Houston remains at the forefront of the global energy transition.”

Download the full report here.

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This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.
This move could help the U.S. cut emissions while staying competitive in the global energy game. Image via Getty Images

What EPA’s carbon capture and storage permitting announcement means for Texas

The View From HETI

Earlier this month, Texas was granted authority by the federal government for permitting carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. This move could help the U.S. cut emissions while staying competitive in the global energy game.

In June, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed approving Texas’ request for permitting authority under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) for Class VI underground injection wells for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the state under a process called “primacy.” The State of Texas already has permitting authority for other injection wells (Classes I-V). In November, the EPA announced final approval of Texas’ primacy request.

Why This Matters for Texas

Texas is the headquarters for virtually every segment of the energy industry. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Texas is the top crude oil- and natural-gas producing state in the nation. The state has more crude oil refineries and refining capacity than any other state in the nation. Texas produces more electricity than any other state, and the demand for electricity will grow with the development of data centers and artificial intelligence (AI). Simply put, Texas is the backbone of the nation’s energy security and competitiveness. For the nation’s economic competitiveness, it is important that Texas continue to produce more energy with less emissions. CCS is widely regarded as necessary to continue to lower the emissions intensity of the U.S. industrial sector for critical products including power generation, refining, chemicals, steel, cement and other products that our country and world demand.

The Greater Houston Partnership’s Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI) has supported efforts to bring CCUS to a broader commercial scale since the initiative’s inception.

“Texas is uniquely positioned to deploy CCUS at scale, with world-class geology, a skilled workforce, and strong infrastructure. We applaud the EPA for granting Texas the authority to permit wells for CCUS, which we believe will result in safe and efficient permitting while advancing technologies that strengthen Texas’ leadership in the global energy market,” said Jane Stricker, Executive Director of HETI and Senior Vice President, Energy Transition at the Greater Houston Partnership.

What is Primacy, and Why is it Important?

Primacy grants permitting authority for Class VI wells for CCS to the Texas Railroad Commission instead of the EPA. Texas is required to follow the same strict standards the EPA uses. The EPA has reviewed Texas’ application and determined it meets those requirements.

Research suggests that Texas has strong geological formations for CO2 storage, a world-class, highly skilled workforce, and robust infrastructure primed for the deployment of CCS. However, federal permitting delays are stalling billions of dollars of private sector investment. There are currently 257 applications under review, nearly one-quarter of which are located in Texas, with some applications surpassing the EPA’s target review period of 24 months. This creates uncertainty for developers and investors and keeps thousands of potential jobs out of reach. By transferring permitting to the state, Texas will apply local resources to issue Class VI permits across the states in a timely manner.

Texas joins North Dakota, Wyoming, Louisiana, West Virginia and Arizona with the authority for regulating Class VI wells.

Is CCS safe?

A 2025 study by Texas A&M University reviewed operational history and academic literature on CCS in the United States. The study analyzed common concerns related to CCS efficacy and safety and found that CCS reduces pollutants including carbon dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides. The research found that the risks of CCS present a low probability of impacting human life and can be effectively managed through existing state and federal regulations and technical monitoring and safety protocols.

What’s Next?

The final rule granting Texas’ primacy will become effective 30 days after publication in the Federal Register. Once in effect, the Texas Railroad Commission will be responsible for permitting wells for carbon capture, use and storage and enforcing their safe operation.

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This article originally ran on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

HETI has supported efforts to bring CCUS to a broader commercial scale since the initiative’s inception. Image via Getty Images

Texas gets one step closer to CCUS permitting authority

The View From HETI

This month, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its proposed approval of Texas request for permitting authority under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) for Class VI underground injection wells for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) in the state. The State of Texas already has permitting authority for Class I-V injection wells. Granting authority for Class VI wells recognizes that Texas is well positioned to protect its underground sources of drinking water while also advancing economic opportunity and energy security.

“In the Safe Drinking Water Act, Congress laid out a clear vision for delegating decision-making from EPA to states that have local expertise and understand their water resources, geology, communities, and opportunities for economic growth,” said EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin in a news release. “EPA is taking a key step to support cooperative federalism by proposing to approve Texas to permit Class VI wells in the state.”

The Greater Houston Partnership’s Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI) has supported efforts to bring CCUS to a broader commercial scale since the initiative’s inception. Earlier this year, HETI commissioned a “study of studies” by Texas A&M University’s Energy Institute and Mary K. O’Connor Process Safety Center on the operational history and academic literature of CCUS safety in the United States. The report revealed that with state and federal regulations as well as technical and engineering technologies available today, CCUS is safe and presents a very low risk of impacts to human life. This is useful research for stakeholders interested in learning more about CCUS.

“The U.S. EPA’s proposal to approve Texas’ application for Class VI well permitting authority is yet another example of Texas’ continued leadership in meeting the dual challenge of producing more energy with less emissions,” said Jane Stricker, Senior Vice President of Energy at the Greater Houston Partnership and Executive Director of the Houston Energy Transition Initiative. “We applaud the U.S. EPA and Texas Railroad Commission for their collaborative efforts to ensure the supply of safe, affordable and reliable energy, and we call on all stakeholders to voice their support for the application during the public comment period.”

The U.S. EPA has announced a public comment period that will include a virtual public hearing on July 24, 2025 from 5-8 pm and conclude on July 31, 2025.

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This article originally ran on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

In all, DOE recently allocated $518 million to 23 CCUS projects in the U.S. Photo via Getty Images

DOE dishes out funding to 2 Houston carbon caption projects

ccus news

Two Houston companies have received federal funding to develop carbon capture and storage projects.

Evergreen Sequestration Hub LLC, a partnership of Houston-based Trace Carbon Solutions and Jacksonville, Mississippi-based Molpus Woodlands Group, got more than $27.8 million from the U.S. Department of Energy for its Evergreen Sequestration Hub project in Louisiana. DOE says the project is valued at $34.8 million.

The hub will be built on about 20,000 acres of timberland in Louisiana’s Calcasieu and Beauregard parishes for an unidentified customer. It’ll be capable of storing about 250 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.

Trace Carbon Solutions, a subsidiary of Trace Midstream Partners, is developing CCS assets and supporting midstream infrastructure across North America. Molpus, an investment advisory firm, buys, manages, and sells timberland as an investment vehicle for pension funds, college endowments, foundations, insurance companies, and high-net-worth investors.

Another Houston company, RPS Expansion LLC, has received $9 million from the DOE to expand the River Parish Sequestration Project. Following the expansion, the project will be able to store up to 384 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. The CCUS hub is between Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

DOE says the River Parish expansion is valued at $11.8 million.

Also receiving DOE funding is a CCUS project to be developed off the coast of Corpus Christi. The developer is the Southern States Energy Board, based in Peachtree Corners, Georgia.

DOE is chipping in more than $51.1 million for the nearly $64 million hub. It’s estimated that about 35 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions are released each year from about 50 industrial and power facilities within a 100-mile radius of Mustang Island. Port Aransas is located on the 18-mile-long island.

In all, DOE recently allocated $518 million to 23 CCUS projects in the U.S.

“The funding … will help ensure that carbon storage projects — crucial to slashing harmful carbon pollution — are designed, built, and operated safely and responsibly across all phases of development to deliver healthier communities as well as high-quality American jobs,” Brad Crabtree, assistant DOE secretary for fossil energy and carbon management, says in a news release.

Under its deal with Occidental, pipeline company Enterprise Products Partners will create a carbon dioxide pipeline system for 1PointFive’s Bluebonnet Sequestration Hub. Photo via 1pointfive.com

Oxy, Enterprise Products Partners to collaborate on carbon dioxide pipeline system for Texas project

coming soon

Occidental Petroleum’s carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS) subsidiary has tapped another Houston-based company to develop a carbon dioxide pipeline and transportation network for one of its CCUS hubs.

Under its deal with Occidental, pipeline company Enterprise Products Partners will create a carbon dioxide pipeline system for 1PointFive’s Bluebonnet Sequestration Hub, which will span more than 55,000 acres in Chambers, Liberty, and Jefferson counties. The hub will be able to hold about 1.2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide. The new pipeline network will be co-located with existing pipelines.

Enterprise Products Partners also will supply fee-based services for transporting CO2 emissions from industrial facilities near the Houston Ship Channel to the Bluebonnet hub.

“This agreement pairs our expertise managing large volumes of CO2 with Enterprise’s decades of midstream experience to bring confidence to industrial customers seeking a decarbonization solution,” Jeff Alvarez, president of 1PointFive’s sequestration business, says in a news release.

The Bluebonnet Sequestration Hub recently received funding from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to help cover development costs.

“This hub is located between two of the largest industrial corridors in Texas so captured CO2 can be efficiently transported and safely sequestered,” Alvarez said in 2023. “Rather than starting from scratch with individual capture and sequestration projects, companies can plug into this hub for access to shared carbon infrastructure.”

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Houston companies advance 200MW green ammonia plant in South Texas

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Two global companies with a major presence in Houston are teaming up on a green ammonia plant in Port of Victoria, Texas.

Topsoe, a Danish company with operations in Houston and Bayport, Texas, has been tapped to provide ammonia synthesis technology for the project being developed by First Ammonia, a New York-based company with offices in Houston and Denmark.

The flagship 200-megawatt plant will use renewable electricity to produce green hydrogen through electrolysis, which will then be combined with nitrogen from a nearby Air Liquide pipeline to make green ammonia, according to First Ammonia. It is expected to serve both U.S. and global markets.

According to First Ammonia, every 100,000 tons of electric ammonia produced avoids approximately 240,000 tons of CO2 emissions compared to fossil ammonia

The Topsoe technology used on site is designed to be able to increase production from 10 percent to 100 percent within 30 minutes, and decrease production at a similar rate, allowing the plant to respond to fluctuations from solar- or wind-based energy sources.

“Topsoe is the world leader in ammonia synthesis, and First Ammonia is delighted to continue our partnership with them in establishing a green ammonia industry in the US and around the world,” Joel Moser, CEO of First Ammonia, said in a news release.

Topsoe has previously signed on to supply its 100-megawatt solid oxide electrolyser (SOEC) to the First Ammonia project. However, the company announced in March that it did not extend the contract after multiple delays.

The First Ammonia project was originally expected to come online by 2027 and to produce 1.1 million tonnes of green ammonia. The project is now expected to reach financial before the end of 2026, with construction slated to begin in 2027 and commercial operations launching by 2029.

“As green ammonia projects move from ambition to execution, operational flexibility becomes increasingly important,” Yassir Ghiyati, chief commercial officer at Topsoe, added in a news release. “We’re proud to support First Ammonia with technology designed to enable efficient and reliable green ammonia production. We look forward to continuing to work with the First Ammonia team to help bring this important U.S project to life.”

NASA and Houston researcher tackle climate-driven water quality risks

water watch

Climate change means far more to public health than living with hotter days. Transformations in our weather are contributing to challenges in accessing safe drinking water in some communities.

One of the most dire situations is along the US–Mexico border. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is seeking to address that issue with its Water Quality Applications program. An 11-researcher project led by a UTHealth Houston School of Public Health faculty member has been selected to participate.

“Drinking water is one of the most fundamental public health protections, but producing safe drinking water involves a delicate balance,” Yun Hang, assistant professor of environmental and occupational health sciences, said in a news release. Her team’s proposal was one of 93 that were submitted for funding through NASA’s Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES)-2025 program.

This is the first time that NASA has worked with a team devoted to water quality applications. The group, which includes researchers from across the nation, will use satellite observations of Earth, as well as hydrologic modeling, to potentially anticipate and act on water quality conditions as they change. Challenges addressed over the course of the three-year program, which kicked off in June, might include problems with water quality due to climate variability and increased pressure on water resources.

Hang’s team will focus on a pair of borderlands: Paso del Norte and the Rio Grande Valley.

“Working closely with El Paso Water ensures that our research addresses real operational needs while helping utilities better prepare for climate-related water quality changes and continue providing safe drinking water to communities across the Texas border region,” Hang added in the release.

She and the team will use data gathered by NASA on both past and future Earth-observing missions, which will allow them to track environmental changes that may affect source water quality. Combined with past water treatment records and hydrologic models, the team will also utilize artificial intelligence to develop predictive tools that aim to stop issues before they become larger hurdles to water safety.

Another one of the project’s goals is to create visualization tools and source water summaries that can be utilized by those without scientific expertise. The tools will be produced in English and Spanish to further broaden their accessibility.

The hope is that the materials made by the team will also go far beyond the border, with protocols that can be adapted or adopted by other areas dealing with water quality issues.

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.com.

New research reveals what really drives data center location decisions

Guest Column

Recent power outages and the surge in AI-driven computing have made data center siting decisions more consequential than ever, especially as energy and water constraints tighten. Communities invest public dollars on the promise of jobs and growth, while firms weigh long-term commitments to land, power and connectivity.

Against that evolving backdrop, a critical question comes into focus: Where do data centers get built — and what actually drives those decisions?

A new study by Tommy Pan Fang (Rice Business) and Shane Greenstein (Harvard Business School) provides the first large-scale statistical analysis of data center location strategies across the United States. It offers policymakers and firms a clearer starting point for understanding how different types of data centers respond to economic and strategic incentives.

Published in the journal Strategy Science, the study examines two major types of infrastructure: third-party colocation centers that lease server space to multiple firms, and hyperscale cloud centers owned by providers like Amazon, Google and Microsoft.

Key takeaways:

  • Third-party colocation centers are physical facilities in close proximity to firms that use them, while cloud providers operate large data centers from a distance and sell access to virtualized computing resources as on‑demand services over the internet.
  • Hospitals and financial firms often require urban third-party centers for low latency and regulatory compliance, while batch processing and many AI workloads can operate more efficiently from lower-cost cloud hubs.
  • For policymakers trying to attract data centers, access to reliable power, water and high-capacity internet matter more than tax incentives.

What are the two main data center location strategies?

The study draws on pre-pandemic data from 2018 and 2019, a period of relative geographic stability in supply and demand. This window gives researchers a clean baseline before remote work, AI demand and new infrastructure pressures began reshaping internet traffic patterns.

The findings show that data centers follow a bifurcated geography:

  • Third-party centers cluster in dense urban markets, where buyers prioritize proximity to customers despite higher land and operating costs.
  • Cloud providers, by contrast, concentrate massive sites in a small number of lower-density regions, where electricity, land and construction are cheaper and economies of scale are easier to achieve.

Third-party data centers, in other words, follow demand. They locate in urban markets where firms in finance, healthcare and IT value low latency, secure storage, and compliance with regulatory standards.

Using county-level data, the researchers modeled how population density, industry mix and operating costs predict where new centers enter. Every U.S. metro with more than 700,000 residents had at least one third-party provider, while many mid-sized cities had none.

Map of data centers

This pattern challenges common assumptions. Third-party facilities are more distributed across urban America than prevailing narratives suggest.

“For industries where speed is everything, being too far from the physical infrastructure can meaningfully affect performance and risk,” Pan Fang says. “Proximity isn’t optional for sectors that can’t absorb delay.”

In critical operations, even slight pauses can have real consequences. For hospital systems, lag can affect performance and risk exposure. And in high-frequency trading, milliseconds can determine whether value is captured or lost in a transaction.

Why does distance matter for cloud data center costs?

For cloud providers, the picture looks very different. Their decisions follow a logic shaped primarily by cost and scale. Because cloud services can be delivered from afar, firms tend to build enormous sites in low-density regions where power is cheap and land is abundant.

These facilities can draw hundreds of megawatts of electricity and operate with far fewer employees than urban centers. “The cloud can serve almost anywhere,” Pan Fang says, “so location is a question of cost before geography.”

The study finds that cloud infrastructure clusters around network backbones and energy economics, not talent pools. Well-known hubs like Ashburn, Virginia — often called “Data Center Alley” — reflect this logic, having benefited from early network infrastructure that made them natural convergence points for digital traffic.

Local governments often try to lure data centers with tax incentives, betting they will create high-tech jobs. But the study suggests other factors matter more to cloud providers, including construction costs, network connectivity and access to reliable, affordable electricity.

When cloud centers need a local presence, distance can sometimes become a constraint. Providers often address this by working alongside third-party operators. “Third-party centers can complement cloud firms when they need a foothold closer to customers,” Pan Fang says.

That hybrid pattern — massive regional hubs complementing strategic colocation — may define the next phase of data center growth.

Looking ahead, shifts in remote work, climate resilience, energy prices and AI-driven computing may reshape where new facilities go. Some workloads may move closer to users, while others may consolidate into large rural hubs. Emerging data-sovereignty rules could also redirect investment beyond the United States.

“The cloud feels weightless,” Pan Fang says, “but it rests on real choices about land, power and proximity.”

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This article originally appeared on Rice Business Wisdom. Written by Scott Pett. Pan Fang and Greenstein (2025). “Where the Cloud Rests: The Economic Geography of Data Centers,” Strategy Science.

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