New Rice study details how carbon capture could reduce AI data center emissions

by the numbers

A new report estimates that more than 90 percent of data center-related carbon dioxide emissions could potentially be mitigated through carbon capture and storage. Photo via Unsplash

A new study out of Rice University points to carbon capture and storage methods as pivotal solutions to addressing emissions from AI-driven data centers.

The study was authored by Hon Chung Lau, an adjunct professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice University and founder of Low Carbon Energies LLC, and Steve C. Tsai, an energy transition consultant at Low Carbon Energies LLC, and published in the journal Energy & Fuels.

According to the study, U.S. data center power capacity could more than quadruple in five years, growing from 40 gigawatts in 2025 to 169 gigawatts by 2030. Without proper regulation of emissions, the report estimates that carbon dioxide produced by fossil-fuel power plants supplying electricity to data centers could grow at the same scale, increasing from 90 million metric tons to more than 404 million metric tons over the same time period.

The researchers analyzed publicly available data on announced U.S. data centers, which included energy sources, locations, and projected power capacity before estimating data center-related carbon emissions based on each state’s electricity mix. From there, they examined whether those emissions could be captured and stored underground in saline aquifers.

The team estimates that 34 states have enough saline aquifer storage capacity to store more than 100 years of projected data center-related carbon dioxide emissions beyond 2030. Aquifers could store an estimated 59 million metric tons of data center-related carbon dioxide, or about 66 percent of the sector’s emissions in 2025. However, that calculation could grow to 299 million metric tons, or about 74 percent of projected data center-related emissions by 2030.

The researchers found that more than 90 percent of data center-related carbon dioxide emissions could potentially be mitigated through carbon capture and storage when out-of-state storage options are included, even though they note that carbon capture isn’t the only solution.

“It does show that the geology exists to make a meaningful impact, especially in states where data center growth is strongest,” Lau said in a news release.

Rapid growth in states including Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Utah and Illinois was considered in the study. According to the findings, Texas would need to add 25 gigawatts of power capacity by 2030 to meet projected data center demand, as data centers require reliable electricity 24/7.

“Data centers are becoming one of the defining energy challenges of the AI era,” Lau added in the news release. “The question is not only whether we can build enough computing infrastructure, but whether we can power it in a way that is reliable, affordable and compatible with decarbonization goals.”

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Sage Geosystems brings South Texas geothermal plant online

powering up

Houston-based Sage Geosystems, a provider of geothermal power, has begun full operations at its South Texas facility for the San Miguel Electric Cooperative.

Sage says the plant was recently “placed in service,” according to a news release. This means it’s fully built and tested, and ready to generate and supply electricity to the grid.

Since selling its first electricity in Q2 of this year, the facility has been operating for more than four months to evaluate aspects like efficiency and water management. Sage relied on its GeoTwin modeling tool to carry out some of the testing.

The testing demonstrates Sage’s proprietary approach to geothermal power “overcomes one of the industry’s most persistent challenges, high water losses in engineered reservoirs, while delivering the consistent performance required to scale next-generation geothermal,” co-founder and CEO Cindy Taff said in the release.

Sage says the South Texas facility will serve as a model for future projects, including one in Nevada. The Nevada facility will use Sage’s proprietary technology to extract geothermal heat from hot dry rock, creating a reliable, affordable source of carbon-free power.

During the testing period, water losses amounted to less than 10 percent. This low rate indicates most water remains in the system, enabling Sage to capture more usable energy, boost power production and improve the project’s finances, the company says.

“Commercial geothermal isn’t just about creating a reservoir. It’s about creating one whose performance can be engineered, predicted, and consistent,” Lev Ring, the company’s co-founder, president and chief technology officer, said in the release.

Since being founded in 2020, Sage has raised $159 million in outside funding. This includes a more than $97 million Series B round co-led by Ormat Technologies and Carbon Direct Capital.

Two years ago, Sage announced a deal with Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to supply up to 150 megawatts of geothermal power to Meta data centers.

Halliburton Labs adds 3 energy, materials startups to Houston incubator

green team

Three new companies have joined Halliburton Labs, the incubator for early-stage energy and hardtech startups run by Houston energy giant Halliburton.

Halliburton Labs provides the emerging companies with mentorship, industry connections, laboratory access and other resources as they work toward commercialization. The latest companies to join the incubator focus on battery materials, resource recovery and gas separation solutions to address some of the "key bottlenecks in the energy and industrial landscape," according to a news release.

The new members include:

Electroflow, a California-based company that produces lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode material from lithium brines through its proprietary process. LFPs are critical components in batteries used in electric vehicles, grid storage systems and industrial electrification, according to Halliburton Labs.
Osmoses, a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company that has developed a membrane platform to reduce the energy use, cost and emissions associated with gas separations used in natural gas, hydrogen, helium and other industrial applications
SiTration Inc., another Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company that has developed electro-extraction and filtration technologies to recover critical metals like copper directly from mining waste streams more quickly and affordably. Its process has completed successful pilot projects with Tier 1 mining companies in three continents.

"Affordable and reliable molecules are essential building blocks of the energy future. Each company brings a bold, technical solution to a complex industrial challenge. We look forward to helping them scale and deploy their technologies," Andres Cabada, Halliburton Labs managing director, added in the news release.

Halliburton Labs previously added four new members from around the world —Nandina REM, Noon Energy, Proof Energy and Tidal Metals—this spring. Alumni from the incubator include Houston-based companies like NanoTech Materials, which is developing insulation and fireproofing to reduce heat transfer in buildings and outdoor infrastructure; and SolvCor, which develops water additives to improve cooling for data centers and thermal storage.

With the addition of the three new members, the incubator currently supports nine early-stage companies.

Houston companies advance 200MW green ammonia plant in South Texas

coming soon

Two global companies with a major presence in Houston are teaming up on a green ammonia plant in Port of Victoria, Texas.

Topsoe, a Danish company with operations in Houston and Bayport, Texas, has been tapped to provide ammonia synthesis technology for the project being developed by First Ammonia, a New York-based company with offices in Houston and Denmark.

The flagship 200-megawatt plant will use renewable electricity to produce green hydrogen through electrolysis, which will then be combined with nitrogen from a nearby Air Liquide pipeline to make green ammonia, according to First Ammonia. It is expected to serve both U.S. and global markets.

According to First Ammonia, every 100,000 tons of electric ammonia produced avoids approximately 240,000 tons of CO2 emissions compared to fossil ammonia

The Topsoe technology used on site is designed to be able to increase production from 10 percent to 100 percent within 30 minutes, and decrease production at a similar rate, allowing the plant to respond to fluctuations from solar- or wind-based energy sources.

“Topsoe is the world leader in ammonia synthesis, and First Ammonia is delighted to continue our partnership with them in establishing a green ammonia industry in the US and around the world,” Joel Moser, CEO of First Ammonia, said in a news release.

Topsoe has previously signed on to supply its 100-megawatt solid oxide electrolyser (SOEC) to the First Ammonia project. However, the company announced in March that it did not extend the contract after multiple delays.

The First Ammonia project was originally expected to come online by 2027 and to produce 1.1 million tonnes of green ammonia. The project is now expected to reach financial before the end of 2026, with construction slated to begin in 2027 and commercial operations launching by 2029.

“As green ammonia projects move from ambition to execution, operational flexibility becomes increasingly important,” Yassir Ghiyati, chief commercial officer at Topsoe, added in a news release. “We’re proud to support First Ammonia with technology designed to enable efficient and reliable green ammonia production. We look forward to continuing to work with the First Ammonia team to help bring this important U.S project to life.”

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