The world can't keep on with what it's doing and expect to reach its goals when it comes to climate change. Radical innovations are needed at this point, writes Scott Nyquist. Photo via Getty Images

Almost 3 years ago, McKinsey published a report arguing that limiting global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels was “technically achievable,” but that the “math is daunting.” Indeed, when the 1.5°C figure was agreed to at the 2015 Paris climate conference, the assumption was that emissions would peak before 2025, and then fall 43 percent by 2030.

Given that 2022 saw the highest emissions ever—36.8 gigatons—the math is now more daunting still: cuts would need to be greater, and faster, than envisioned in Paris. Perhaps that is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted March 20 (with “high confidence”) that it was “likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century.”

I agree with that gloomy assessment. Given the rate of progress so far, 1.5°C looks all but impossible. That puts me in the company of people like Bill Gates; the Economist; the Australian Academy of Science, and apparently many IPCC scientists. McKinsey has estimated that even if all countries deliver on their net zero commitments, temperatures will likely be 1.7°C higher in 2100.

In October, the UN Environment Program argued that there was “no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place” and called for “an urgent system-wide transformation” to change the trajectory. Among the changes it considers necessary: carbon taxes, land use reform, dietary changes in which individuals “consume food for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction,” investment of $4 trillion to $6 trillion a year; applying current technology to all new buildings; no new fossil fuel infrastructure. And so on.

Let’s assume that the UNEP is right. What are the chances of all this happening in the next few years? Or, indeed, any of it? President Obama’s former science adviser, Daniel Schrag, put it this way: “ Who believes that we can halve global emissions by 2030?... It’s so far from reality that it’s kind of absurd.”

Having a goal is useful, concentrating minds and organizing effort. And I think that has been the case with 1.5°C, or recent commitments to get to net zero. Targets create a sense of urgency that has led to real progress on decarbonization.

The 2020 McKinsey report set out how to get on the 1.5°C pathway, and was careful to note that this was not a description of probability or reality but “a picture of a world that could be.” Three years later, that “world that could be” looks even more remote.

Consider the United States, the world’s second-largest emitter. In 2021, 79 percent of primary energy demand (see chart) was met by fossil fuels, about the same as a decade before. Globally, the figures are similar, with renewables accounting for just 12.5 percent of consumption and low-emissions nuclear another 4 percent. Those numbers would have to basically reverse in the next decade or so to get on track. I don’t see how that can happen.

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Credit: Energy Information Administration

But even if 1.5°C is improbable in the short term, that doesn’t mean that missing the target won’t have consequences. And it certainly doesn’t mean giving up on addressing climate change. And in fact, there are some positive trends. Many companies are developing comprehensive plans for achieving net-zero emissions and are making those plans part of their long-term strategy. Moreover, while global emissions grew 0.9 percent in 2022, that was much less than GDP growth (3.2 percent). It’s worth noting, too, that much of the increase came from switching from gas to coal in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine; that is the kind of supply shock that can be reversed. The point is that growth and emissions no longer move in lockstep; rather the opposite. That is critical because poorer countries are never going to take serious climate action if they believe it threatens their future prosperity.

Another implication is that limiting emissions means addressing the use of fossil fuels. As noted, even with the substantial rise in the use of renewables, coal, gas, and oil are still the core of the global energy system. They cannot be wished away. Perhaps it is time to think differently—that is, making fossil fuels more emissions efficient, by using carbon capture or other technologies; cutting methane emissions; and electrifying oil and gas operations. This is not popular among many climate advocates, who would prefer to see fossil fuels “stay in the ground.” That just isn’t happening. The much likelier scenario is that they are gradually displaced. McKinsey projects peak oil demand later this decade, for example, and for gas, maybe sometime in the late 2030s. Even after the peak, though, oil and gas will still be important for decades.

Second, in the longer term, it may be possible to get back onto 1.5°C if, in addition to reducing emissions, we actually remove them from the atmosphere, in the form of “negative emissions,” such as direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in power and heavy industry. The IPCC itself assumed negative emissions would play a major role in reaching the 1.5°C target; in fact, because of cost and deployment problems, it’s been tiny.

Finally, as I have argued before, it’s hard to see how we limit warming even to 2°C without more nuclear power, which can provide low-emissions energy 24/7, and is the largest single source of such power right now.

None of these things is particularly popular; none get the publicity of things like a cool new electric truck or an offshore wind farm (of which two are operating now in the United States, generating enough power for about 20,000 homes; another 40 are in development). And we cannot assume fast development of offshore wind. NIMBY concerns have already derailed some high-profile projects, and are also emerging in regard to land-based wind farms.

Carbon capture, negative emissions, and nuclear will have to face NIMBY, too. But they all have the potential to move the needle on emissions. Think of the potential if fast-growing India and China, for example, were to develop an assembly line of small nuclear reactors. Of course, the economics have to make sense—something that is true for all climate-change technologies.

And as the UN points out, there needs to be progress on other issues, such as food, buildings, and finance. I don’t think we can assume that such progress will happen on a massive scale in the next few years; the actual record since Paris demonstrates the opposite. That is troubling: the IPCC notes that the risks of abrupt and damaging impacts, such as flooding and crop yields, rise “with every increment of global warming.” But it is the reality.

There is one way to get us to 1.5°C, although not in the Paris timeframe: a radical acceleration of innovation. The approaches being scaled now, such as wind, solar, and batteries, are the same ideas that were being discussed 30 years ago. We are benefiting from long-term, incremental improvements, not disruptive innovation. To move the ball down the field quickly, though, we need to complete a Hail Mary pass.

It’s a long shot. But we’re entering an era of accelerated innovation, driven by advanced computing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning that could narrow the odds. For example, could carbon nanotubes displace demand for high-emissions steel? Might it be possible to store carbon deep in the ocean? Could geo-engineering bend the curve?

I believe that, on the whole, the world is serious about climate change. I am certain that the energy transition is happening. But I don’t think we are anywhere near to being on track to hit the 1.5°C target. And I don’t see how doing more of the same will get us there.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn.

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China-based company to launch its largest U.S. energy storage project in Houston

coming soon

Trina Storage and FlexGen, a North Carolina-based company that develops integrated energy storage systems, are bringing a 371-megawatt battery energy storage system to Houston. The project will be the largest grid-scale deployment project in North America by Trina Storage, which is a business unit of China-based Trina Solar.

"This project is a testament to Trina Storage's ability to provide a fully bankable, integrated energy storage solution that meets the evolving needs of the market," Terry Chen, vice president of Trina Storage North America, said in a news release. "As our first grid-scale deployment in North America, this achievement reflects the industry's confidence in our technology and our commitment to de-risking energy storage investments and supporting the energy transition in the region."

The project, developed by Boulder, Colorado-based SMT Energy, will utilize Trina Storage's advanced Elementa 2 battery storage system, which is designed to optimize energy performance and reliability. The system uses Trinas proprietary lithium iron phosphate cells that are more than 95 percent energy efficient, according to the company.

FlexGen will provide system integration and use its HybridOS energy management software. The HybridOS allows site operators to manage systems, detect issues faster and predict maintenance needs.

"This collaboration with Trina Storage and SMT Energy represents another major step in accelerating the deployment of flexible energy storage assets to meet growing demand," Diane Giacomozzi, COO at FlexGen, added in the release. "By pre-integrating FlexGen HybridOS with Trina's Elementa 2 energy storage solution in our Durham Innovation Lab, we're enabling faster project delivery and optimized performance from the first moment of operation."

Trina Storage currently has 10 energy storage facilities in China and two in the UK. The Houston facility is part of its plans to expand across the U.S., according to a LinkedIn post form the company.

7 must-attend Houston energy transition events in May 2025

On the Agenda

Editor's note: May is here, and there's a full slate of must-attend energy transition events this month. Mark your calendars for these top events, including OTC 2025, CHARGE North America, and more.Please note: this article may be updated to include additional events.

May 5-9 — OTC 2025

Offshore Technology Conference 2025 will cover the the theme of "Waves of Innovation," covering offshore energy excellence." The premier five-day conference willhighlight the groundbreaking advancements in offshore energy, showcasing the industry's relentless drive for innovation. As global energy needs evolve, the "Waves of Innovation" theme reflects OTC’s commitment to sustainable, cutting-edge technologies that are shaping the future of offshore energy.

Industry leaders will come together to explore new frontiers in offshore energy, emphasizing the operational efficiency, environmental responsibility, and technical excellence required to meet the challenges of tomorrow’s energy landscape.

The Opening Ceremony kicks off Monday, May 5 at 9 am. The event continues at NRG Park through May 9. Click here to register.

May 12-15 — Enverus Evolve Conference

Staying ahead of the curve in the energy sector is critical. This conference is designed to equip energy leaders with foresight in the energy market, providing cutting-edge technological know-how, sessions and networking opportunities industry leaders, and offering practical guidance on how to apply technology to solve big problems.

This event begins May 12 at Hilton Americas Houston. Click here to register.

May 12-13 — Carbon Hub Annual Meeting

The fifth-annual Carbon Hub Annual Meeting will bring together industry, academic, and research leaders at the forefront of the energy and materials transitions. Attendees will have access to thought-provoking discussions and opportunities to connect with innovators across the field. The full agenda has yet to be released, but featured speakers include David Hatrick, Vice President, Strategic Marketing and Innovation, Huntsman Advanced Materials; Luca de Rai, Vice President, Research & Development Energy, Prysmian Group; and Dhaval Shah, General Manager, Corporate Technology & Innovation, SABIC.

This event begins May 12 at Rice University. Click here to register.

May 20-21 — Geothermal Transition Summit North America

This two-day summit serves as the meeting point for the geothermal and oil and gas industries and will focus on geothermal energy, including scaling plants and navigating state regulations. The event promises 50 expert speakers, 15 tech demos, and access to eight networking events featuring approximately 250 industry decision makers.

This event begins May 20 at Norris Conference Centers - Houston CityCentre. Click here to register.

May 27-28 — 6th American LNG Forum

Join LNG industry professionals, innovators, and policymakers to discover groundbreaking technologies that are driving the future of liquified natural gas. Topics will include market dynamics and decarbonization strategies, offering attendees the chance to connect, learn, and become part of the LNG revolution.

This event begins May 27 at the Westin Galleria Houston. Click here to register.

May 28-30 — CHARGE North America

This intimate, immersive experience is tailored to forward-thinking energy professionals. The conference includes hands-on interactive workshops led by top strategists; real-world case studies; and insights from leading speakers on resilient branding, consumer expectations, and climate action. Attendees will engage in panel discussions on sustainability and energy diversification and enjoy exclusive networking opportunities with global executives and innovators.

This event begins May 28 at The Ion. Click here to register.

May 29-30 — 5th Annual American Hydrogen Forum

Connect with hydrogen industry leaders, innovators, and policymakers at the American Hydrogen Forum. Discover groundbreaking technologies and strategies focusing on hydrogen fuel cell technology, hydrogen energy, and low-carbon hydrogen solutions.

This event begins May 29 at the Westin Galleria Houston. Click here to register.

Solugen names Houston founder as new president of energy and water

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Houston-based biochemical producer Solugen has hired chemical industry veteran James Begeal as its new president of energy and water.

In his new position, Begeal leads the commercial strategy for the energy and produced-water sectors, “bringing our innovative chemistry directly to leading oil and gas operators, accelerating revenue growth, and deepening our commercial pipeline,” Solugen said in a news release.

Begeal has more than 25 years of experience in the chemical industry, including roles at oilfield technology company Baker Hughes and chemical company Clariant. In 2016, he co-founded NexGen Chemical Technologies, a Cypress-based provider of alternative natural-gas sweeteners. Begeal served as chief operating officer and chief technology officer at NexGen, which was acquired by League City-based Foremark Performance Chemicals in 2023. He then joined Foremark, which was acquired by investment firm CC Industries in 2024.

Begeal is no stranger to Solugen, having previously served as a company advisor.

“James is a builder — he knows what it takes to launch, scale, and win in this space,” says Solugen CEO Gaurab Chakrabarti. “We’re excited to have him bring that same builder’s mindset to Solugen as we double down on delivering solutions that meet our customers’ toughest challenges.”

The company also recently named Carlos Diaz as its new VP of strategy and international business. Diaz worked for 18 years at Baker Hughes and will lead Solugen's commercial expansion efforts into Latin America and beyond, according to a company representative.

Solugen, founded in 2016, raised $357 million in a series C venture capital round. The 2021 round catapulted Solugen into the unicorn category, meaning the private company is valued at more than $1 billion.