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Energy expert on powering Texas by leading globally and acting locally

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Getty Images.

Texas is known around the world for shaping energy trends, including conservation efforts. As we reflect on Earth Day this month, let’s take a closer look at where Texas is getting things right and where there is still room for improvement.

Texas is the nation’s top producer of energy across oil, gas, wind and solar power. We have built our identity on the idea of leading the world as a powerhouse for energy production, but Texas also has to deliver results to its residents and the United States; otherwise, our global leadership falls flat.

Measuring Texas’ Global Leadership

Texas is the nation’s largest energy producer, leading the U.S. in wind-powered electricity generation and rapidly expanding its solar capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Our state continues to lead nationally in large-scale energy investments, business-friendly policies and abundant natural resources.

Texas is not standing still or simply doing what it has always done. The state recognizes that to stay competitive, we must adapt and change. Diversification in the areas of liquefied natural gas exports and new investments in carbon and hydrogen capture are defining what the next chapter of Texas’ leadership will look like.

Energy leadership requires production, innovation and influence. Together, these will keep Texas as a formidable force in global energy production.

Our Local Texas Reality Is Important, Too

When we zoom in to look more closely at what is happening in Texas, the picture becomes a bit more nuanced. Our energy independence creates both flexibility and vulnerability, especially during major weather events such as winter storms and hurricanes.

Five years later, the effects of Winter Storm Uri remain in many of our minds. Demand for home generators has risen quickly in the state, with Houston leading the way due to grid uncertainty. As our population continues to rise quickly and more data centers are built in the state, grid stability remains a major factor in Texas’ ability to lead in energy innovation to meet the demands of residents.

ERCOT has developed a three-part plan to help mitigate the risk of grid failure during periods of extreme demand or emergencies. While this is an improvement over five years ago, Texas still needs to invest significantly in grid resiliency.

Texas’ Energy Market and Affordability

Often, proponents of our deregulated energy market in Texas hold it up as an example of healthy competition and consumer choice. Lawmakers claim that it gives residents the ability to select an energy plan that best meets their needs.

In practice, however, the market can be difficult to navigate. There are many electricity plans and providers, so residents often feel overwhelmed when navigating the energy market. With fluctuating rates, complex contracts and peak pricing structures, monthly energy bills can be surprising.

Additionally, as utility companies seek to distribute energy infrastructure costs to customers, prices are rising rapidly. According to TEPRI, electricity rates have risen by 30% since 2021, and the organization predicts an additional 29% increase by 2030.

A 60% increase in electricity prices over less than a decade will affect more than 4.1 million LMI (low- to moderate-income) households in Texas. Conservative projections by TEPRI estimate that by 2030, LMI households will pay an additional $863 annually for electricity, representing an electricity-pricing burden of 8.2%.

The energy affordability crisis is just beginning here in Texas, and greater education and proactive legislation are needed to help LMI households navigate the changing market and rising energy costs. LMI households are already choosing between paying for electricity and healthcare for their family members.

If Texas wants to remain a global leader in energy production, innovation, reliability and affordability, the rising cost of energy needs urgent attention.

Grid Resilience Is Mandatory

In addition to energy affordability, Texas frequently experiences extreme weather, making grid resilience foundational to its continued leadership in both local and global markets.

Between 1980 and 2024, Texas experienced 190 weather-related events with financial losses exceeding $ 1 billion. From hurricanes along the Gulf Coast to prolonged heat waves and drought, the state’s energy infrastructure is under increasing strain. These events necessitate that Texas invest in long-term planning and preparedness for its energy infrastructure.

Next Steps for Local Leadership

Texas needs to strengthen every part of its energy infrastructure. Leading locally means strengthening the grid by building out transmission, scaling battery storage, and deploying smarter, more responsive technology. At the same time, we need to make the market easier to navigate and ensure Texans are better educated and protected as they make energy decisions.

Additionally, as Texans become more informed about the energy landscape, it is crucial to equip them with the knowledge to use energy conservation tools such as programmable thermostats, mobile apps to monitor and adjust energy usage, shifting away from peak-hour usage and selecting energy plans without gimmicks or tricky clauses.

These important intersections are where Texas’ global leadership meets local impact in a critical time of change and transition in the Texas energy landscape.

Going Forward

Beyond addressing the critical issues of reliability and affordability at home here in Texas, it is important to recognize that they are also global. While we already export our energy products to the world, we have a unique opportunity to also export solutions in grid innovation, market design and technologies that are applicable to varied environments and markets around the world.

If we get it right, Texas will be known for not only producing energy but also for shaping how energy systems evolve globally. In order for Texas to lead both locally and globally, we need to focus on performance through smarter infrastructure, thoughtful policy and informed consumers.

Because true energy leadership isn’t just about how much we produce, it’s about performance, access and impact from Texas communities to the global stage, which is an imperative that goes far beyond Earth Day.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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Extreme weather in Texas is not only increasing but also becoming more hazardous for communities, infrastructure, and the economy. Photo by Jarosław Kwoczała on Unsplash

Energy expert: What record heat and extended summers mean for Texans

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Earth’s third-warmest year on record occurred in 2025, reinforcing a decades-long pattern of rising global temperatures. This warming trend is increasingly reflected in regional weather patterns across the United States, particularly in Texas, where hotter summers, prolonged droughts, and heavier rainfall events are becoming more common.

A 2024 report from Texas A&M University highlights how these shifts are already reshaping weather conditions across the Lone Star State. The assessment analyzes climate and weather data from 1900 through 2023 and projects likely trends through 2036.

Its findings suggest that extreme weather in Texas is not only increasing but also becoming more hazardous for communities, infrastructure, and the economy.

A Rise in Extreme Heat
One of the most dramatic changes is the increasing frequency of extreme heat events. Summer temperatures in Texas have climbed back to levels not seen since the early 20th century, and projections suggest they will exceed those historic highs within the next decade.

Triple-digit temperatures are becoming far more common. In the 1970s and 1980s, most parts of Texas experienced relatively few days above 100°F in a typical year. By 2036, those days are expected to occur about four times as often, especially across North, Central, and West Texas.

Houston reflects that broader trend. Five of the 10 years with the most 100-degree days on record in the city have occurred since 2000, according to records dating back to the late 1880s.

The summer of 2023 was Houston’s hottest on record, surpassing even the historic heat of 2011. While short-term cold snaps still occur, climate data suggests extreme summer heat will become more frequent in the years ahead.

Heat waves are also starting earlier in the year and lasting longer. As of 2024, the average length of heat-wave season in the United States has increased by 46 days since the 1960s. Their frequency has also increased steadily, rising from an average of two heat waves per year in the 1960s to about six per year in the 2010s and 2020s.

Energy Grid Strain
Heat waves occurring earlier in the year and more intensely place increasing pressure on the state’s electricity system. When temperatures spike early in the summer, households and businesses simultaneously increase air-conditioning use, pushing electricity demand close to record levels.

In recent summers, record-breaking electricity demand has repeatedly tested grid capacity. Energy experts warn that if heat extremes continue to intensify, maintaining grid reliability will require expanded generation capacity, improved energy efficiency, and greater integration of renewable energy and battery storage. Fortunately, Texas has already made strides in these areas of concern.

Texas continues to lead the nation in clean energy adoption and grid modernization, particularly in wind and solar power. With more than 40,000 megawatts (MW) of wind capacity, the state ranks first in the country in wind-powered electricity generation, supplying up to 35% when blowing and as low as 0%. Much of this growth was driven by the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which requires utility companies to develop renewable energy in proportion to their market share. The policy originally set a goal of generating 10,000 MW of renewable capacity by 2025, but Texas surpassed this target years ahead of schedule due to rapid investment and expansion.

Solar energy is also growing quickly. Texas has officially overtaken California as the country’s. leader in utility-scale solar, according to recently released data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. With over 37 GW of capacity, Texas now leads in new solar installations, supported by large-scale solar farm development and favorable policies that continue to diversify the state’s energy mix.

To build a more resilient and cost-effective power system, Texas is working to integrate wind and solar generation while strengthening grid reliability. Efforts include regulatory reforms, mandates for improved power infrastructure, and the deployment of renewable energy storage solutions. A recent report from the Solar Energy Industries Association indicates that Texas is on track to surpass California this year as the nation’s leader in energy storage capacity, driven largely by the rapid growth of battery storage facilities across the state. Alongside renewable expansion, the state also added 3,410 MW of natural gas–fueled power in 2024 to support growing electricity demand.

Economic Consequences
Extreme heat also has measurable economic impacts. For every 1-degree increase in the average summer temperature, Texas’ annual nominal GDP growth rate slows by about 0.4 percentage points. Because Texas already experiences hotter summers than most of the country, rising temperatures affect the state’s economic growth about twice as much as they do in the rest of the United States. Additional warming compounds the strain on productivity, infrastructure, and energy costs.

Some industries are more sensitive to heat than others. Construction, agriculture, manufacturing, and outdoor services often experience productivity losses during prolonged heat waves.

The effects were already visible during the record-breaking summer of 2023, when cities such as Houston, Dallas, and El Paso experienced prolonged stretches of triple-digit temperatures. Surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that roughly one-quarter of businesses responding to the Texas Business Outlook Surveys reported reduced revenue or production because of the heat.

The hardest-hit sector was leisure and hospitality, where outdoor activities and tourism often decline during extreme temperatures. However, businesses across manufacturing, retail, and services also reported disruptions.

Environmental and Infrastructure Stress
In addition to heat, there are growing risks related to drought, wildfire conditions, and urban flooding.

Extended heat waves tend to worsen drought conditions by increasing evaporation and reducing soil moisture. Lower water levels in lakes and reservoirs can lead to water restrictions for cities and agricultural producers, especially in regions that rely heavily on surface water supplies.

Dry conditions also increase the likelihood of wildfires, particularly across West Texas and the Hill Country. Strong winds, dry vegetation, and extreme heat can quickly turn small fires into fast-moving blazes that threaten homes, infrastructure, and ecosystems.

At the same time, Texas is experiencing an increase in severe rainfall events, which can overwhelm drainage systems in rapidly growing urban areas. Cities with large amounts of pavement and development are especially vulnerable to flash flooding when heavy rain falls in short bursts.

Along the Gulf Coast, rising sea levels are adding another layer of risk. Communities near Galveston Bay and other low-lying coastal areas face increasing threats from storm surge and high-tide flooding.

Preparing for a Hotter Future
Climate experts emphasize that over the next decade, Texans are likely to face more frequent heat waves, higher energy demand, and greater environmental stress.

Adapting to these changes will require a range of responses, including strengthening infrastructure, expanding water management strategies, improving urban planning, and enhancing emergency preparedness for extreme heat and flooding.

While the challenges are significant, understanding these trends now gives policymakers, businesses, and communities time to prepare. As the state’s population and economy continue to grow, resilience to extreme weather is an increasingly important priority for Texas in the years ahead.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

How has the Texas grid improved since Winter Storm Uri in 2021? Getty Images

Energy expert reviews Texas' big strides in winter grid resilience

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Many Houstonians were holding their breath during the hard freezes that occurred in late January. While Winter Storm Uri was five years ago, the massive blackouts remain a fresh memory.

During that storm, 4.5 million Texans lost power, the state suffered over $80 billion in economic losses, and more than 200 people lost their lives.

During the most recent freeze events, Texas did not experience large-scale blackouts across the state like those in 2021. Regional power outages occurred due to infrastructure issues, including ice on trees and power lines. Since Uri, we have not seen the same sustained weather conditions to test the grid, but there have been significant improvements.

What Has Changed Since Uri

The ERCOT grid has changed significantly since the storm in 2021:

  1. Senate Bill 3 required generators to winterize their equipment, treated the natural gas supply chain as critical infrastructure, and imposed fines of up to $1 million for falling short. More than 300 power units have already been weatherized, and regulators have issued clearer standards to help keep the grid running during extreme cold.
  2. There has been significant progress with monitoring the grid and preparing for emergencies. ERCOT has improved in spotting problems before they turn into outages. Operators now have stronger real-time visibility into generator performance and fuel supplies, improved coordination with natural gas providers, and more advanced forecasting tools that help predict energy availability.
  3. The Texas Energy Fund authorized more than $10 billion for reliability projects across the state. The funds support four programs that aim to increase energy generation and dispatch capacity during periods of grid strain.

Signs of Progress

The grid's performance from 2022 to 2026 shows measurable improvements in how the system handles extreme cold.

  • ERCOT has implemented conservation alerts to help reduce grid load and prevent major blackouts.
  • Operators monitor the reserve margin, essentially the buffer between supply and demand. When that cushion holds, the grid has more flexibility to keep power flowing.
  • Stronger coordination between generators, transmission operators and utilities is also improving overall system resilience.

Additionally, Texas has built one of the largest smart-meter networks in the country, enabling better predictive analysis of electricity demand and usage. These smart meters have been installed in 90% of Texas residential homes, providing a much more accurate picture of energy consumption.

Finally, energy companies are helping customers understand how small changes in usage can ease grid strain. Individually, those adjustments may seem minor, but across millions of homes, they can meaningfully lower demand and help reduce the risk of outages.

Remaining Vulnerabilities and Possible Risks

Despite the progress, Grid Strategies assigned the Texas power grid a D-minus rating this year. A major factor in the rating is Texas’s lack of connections to neighboring power grids. While the state earned a B for legislative engagement, delayed transmission projects contributed to a lower C-minus outcome score.

While the grid has become more reliable since 2021, several threats remain that could impede its continued progress.

  • Population growth remains one of the biggest tests for Texas grid reliability. The state is expected to add roughly 15 million residents over the next three decades.
  • Data centers, industrial expansion, and corporate relocations continue to drive electricity demand higher. Houston sits at the center of that growth, making it a key region to watch to see whether Texas can keep pace with rising energy needs.
  • Increased weather volatility in Texas will make demand predictions even more challenging. Currently, Texas supplies almost 45% of its energy needs with natural gas. Natural gas production and extraction are particularly susceptible to cold weather and freezing conditions.

What “No Blackouts” Really Means for Texans

A stronger grid comes with a price tag. Meeting Texas’s growing demand requires major investments in generation, transmission, and emergency preparedness, and those costs ultimately flow to consumers through higher electric bills.

At the same time, Texans are becoming more proactive about managing energy use and protecting against outages, with more homeowners investing in generators, battery storage, and solar as part of long-term energy planning.

Final Thoughts

As lawmakers continue to debate how to recover grid investments, consumers will ultimately bear part of the cost. The challenge moving forward is improving reliability while keeping electricity affordable for Texans.

Texas continues to expand renewable generation to diversify the power mix, and battery storage is quickly becoming a key reliability tool because it can respond almost instantly to demand spikes. At the same time, advanced forecasting technology is helping operators better anticipate grid stress.

The Texas energy market is evolving fast, driven by population growth and rising electricity demand. Lawmakers, regulators, and grid operators will need to stay aligned to keep reliability moving in the right direction, while consumers will play a bigger role in managing how and when they use electricity.

So, is Texas better prepared for winter today? In many ways, yes. But the grid is still vulnerable to extreme weather and rapid demand growth. Maintaining reliability will require continued investment, planning, and coordination to keep the lights on across the state.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

Conversations rarely focus on what keeps electricity moving: transmission infrastructure. Photo by REVTLProjects on Unsplash

Expert: Why Texas must make energy transmission a top priority in 2026

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Texas takes pride in running one of the most dynamic and deregulated energy markets in the world, but conversations about electricity rarely focus on what keeps it moving: transmission infrastructure.

As ERCOT projects unprecedented electricity demand growth and grid operators update their forecasts for 2026, it’s becoming increasingly clear that generation, whether renewable or fossil, is only part of the solution. Transmission buildout and sound governing policy now stand as the linchpin for reliability, cost containment, and long-term resilience in a grid under unprecedented stress.

At the heart of this urgency is one simple thing: demand. Over 2024 and 2025, ERCOT has been breaking records at a pace we haven’t seen before. From January through September of 2025 alone, electricity use jumped more than 5% over the year before, the fastest growth of any major U.S. grid. And it’s not slowing down.

The Energy Information Administration expects demand to climb another 14% in 2026, pushing total consumption to roughly 425 terawatt-hours in just the first nine months. That surge isn’t just about more people moving to Texas or running their homes differently; it’s being driven by massive industrial and technology loads that simply weren’t part of the equation ten years ago.

The most dramatic contributor to that rising demand is large-scale infrastructure such as data centers, cloud computing campuses, crypto mining facilities, and electrified industrial sectors. In the latest ERCOT planning update, more than 233 gigawatts of total “large load” interconnection requests were being tracked, an almost 300% jump over just a year earlier, with more than 70% of those requests tied to data centers.

Imagine hundreds of new power plants requesting to connect to the grid, all demanding uninterrupted power 24/7. That’s the scale of the transition Texas is facing, and it’s one of the major reasons transmission planning is no longer back-of-house policy talk but a central grid imperative.

Yet transmission is complicated, costly, and inherently long-lead. It takes three to six years to build new transmission infrastructure, compared with six to twelve months to add a new load or generation project.

This is where Texas will feel the most tension. Current infrastructure can add customers and power plants quickly, but the lines to connect them reliably take time, money, permitting, and political will.

To address these impending needs, ERCOT wrapped up its 2024 Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) at the end of last year, and the message was pretty clear: we’ve got work to do. The plan calls for 274 transmission projects and about 6,000 miles of new, rebuilt, or upgraded lines just to handle the growth coming our way and keep the lights on.

The plan also suggests upgrading to 765-kilovolt transmission lines, a big step beyond the standard 345-kV system. When you start talking about 765-kilovolt transmission lines, that’s a big leap from what Texas normally uses. Those lines are built to move a massive amount of power over long distances, but they’re expensive and complicated, so they’re only considered when planners expect demand to grow far beyond normal levels. Recommending them is a clear signal that incremental upgrades won’t be enough to keep up with where electricity demand is headed.

There’s a reason transmission is suddenly getting so much attention. ERCOT and just about every industry analyst watching Texas are projecting that electricity demand could climb as high as 218 gigawatts by 2031 if even a portion of the massive queue of large-load projects actually comes online. When you focus only on what’s likely to get built, the takeaway is the same: demand is going to stay well above anything we’ve seen before, driven largely by the steady expansion of data centers, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure across the state.

Ultimately, the decisions Texas makes on transmission investment and the policies that determine how those costs are allocated will shape whether 2026 and the years ahead bring greater stability or continued volatility to the grid. Thoughtful planning can support growth while protecting reliability and affordability, but falling short risks making volatility a lasting feature of Texas’s energy landscape.

Transmission Policy: The Other Half of the Equation

Infrastructure investment delivers results only when paired with policies that allow it to operate efficiently and at scale. Recognizing that markets alone won’t solve these challenges, Texas lawmakers and regulators have started creating guardrails.

For example, Senate Bill 6, now part of state law, aims to improve how large energy consumers are managed on the grid, including new rules for data center operations during emergencies and requirements around interconnection. Data centers may even be required to disconnect under extreme conditions to protect overall system reliability, a novel and necessary rule given their scale.

Similarly, House Bill 5066 changed how load forecasting occurs by requiring ERCOT to include utility-reported projections in its planning processes, ensuring transmission planning incorporates real-world expectations. These policy updates matter because grid planning isn’t just a technical checklist. It’s about making sure investment incentives, permitting decisions, and cost-sharing rules are aligned so Texas can grow its economy without putting unnecessary pressure on consumers.

Without thoughtful policy, we risk repeating past grid management mistakes. For example, if transmission projects are delayed or underfunded while new high-demand loads come online, we could see congestion worsen. If that happens, affordable electricity would be located farther from where it’s needed, limiting access to low-cost power for consumers and slowing overall economic growth. That’s especially critical in regions like Houston, where energy costs are already a hot topic for households and businesses alike.

A 2026 View: Strategy Over Shortage

As we look toward 2026, here are the transmission and policy trends that matter most:

  • Pipeline of Projects Must Stay on Track: ERCOT’s RTP is ambitious, and keeping those 274 projects, thousands of circuit miles, and next-generation 765-kV lines moving is crucial for reliability and cost containment.
  • Large Load Forecasting Must Be Nuanced: The explosion in large-load interconnection requests, whether or not every project materializes, signals demand pressure that transmission planners cannot ignore. Building lines ahead of realized demand is not wasteful planning; it’s insurance against cost and reliability breakdowns.
  • Policy Frameworks Must Evolve: Laws like SB 6 and HB 5066 are just the beginning. Texas needs transparent rules for cost allocation, interconnection standards, and emergency protocols that keep consumers protected while supporting innovation and economic growth.
  • Coordination Among Stakeholders Is Critical: Transmission doesn’t stop at one utility’s borders. Regional cooperation among utilities, ERCOT, and local stakeholders is essential to manage congestion and develop systemwide reliability solutions.

Here’s the bottom line: Generation gets the headlines, but transmission makes the grid work. Without a robust transmission buildout and thoughtful governance, even the most advanced generation mix that includes wind, solar, gas, and storage will struggle to deliver the reliability Texans expect at a price they can afford.

In 2026, Texas is not merely testing its grid’s capacity to produce power; it’s testing its ability to move that power where it’s needed most. How we rise to meet that challenge will define the next decade of energy in the Lone Star State.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

Solar represented 14 percent of energy supplied to the ERCOT electric grid in 2025. Photo via bp.com

Solar surpasses coal to become ERCOT’s third-largest power source in 2025

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Solar barely eclipsed coal to become the third biggest source of energy generated for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) in 2025, according to new data.

In 2024, solar represented 10 percent of energy supplied to the ERCOT electric grid. Last year, that number climbed to 14 percent. During the same period, coal’s share remained at 13 percent.

From the largest to smallest share, here’s the breakdown of other ERCOT energy sources in 2025 compared with 2024:

  • Combined-cycle gas: 33 percent, down from 35 percent in 2024
  • Wind: 23 percent, down from 24 percent in 2024
  • Natural gas: 8 percent, down from 9 percent in 2024
  • Nuclear: 8 percent, unchanged from 2024
  • Other sources: 1 percent, unchanged from 2024

Combined, solar and wind accounted for 37 percent of ERCOT energy sources.

Looking ahead, solar promises to reign as the star of the ERCOT show:

  • An ERCOT report released in December 2024 said solar is on track to continue outpacing other energy sources in terms of growth of installed generating capacity, followed by battery energy storage.
  • In December, ERCOT reported that more than 11,100 megawatts of new generating capacity had been added to its grid since the previous winter. One megawatt of electricity serves about 250 homes in peak-demand periods. Battery energy storage made up 47 percent of the new capacity, with solar in second place at 40 percent.

The mix of ERCOT’s energy is critical to Texas’ growing need for electricity, as ERCOT manages about 90 percent of the electric load for the state, including the Houston metro area. Data centers, AI and population growth are driving heightened demand for electricity.

In the first nine months of 2025, Texas added a nation-leading 7.4 gigawatts of solar capacity, according to a report from data and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association.

“Remarkable growth in Texas, Indiana, Utah and other states ... shows just how decisively the market is moving toward solar,” says Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the solar association.

Texas leaned heavily on clean energy in 2025. Photo via Pexels

Energy expert: What 2025 revealed about the evolution of Texas power

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2025 marked a pivotal year for Texas’ energy ecosystem. Rising demand, accelerating renewable integration, tightening reserve margins and growing industrial load reshaped the way policymakers, utilities and the broader market think about reliability.

This wasn’t just another year of operational challenges; it was a clear signal that the state is entering an era where growth and innovation must move together in unison if Texas is going to keep pace.

What happened in 2025 is already influencing the decisions utilities, regulators and large energy consumers will make in 2026 and beyond. If Texas is going to remain the nation’s proving ground for large-scale energy innovation, this year made one thing clear: we need every tool working together and working smarter.

What changed: Grid, policy & the growth of renewables

This year, ERCOT recorded one of the steepest demand increases in its history. From January through September 2025, electricity consumption reached 372 terawatt-hours (TWh), a 5 percent increase over the previous year and a 23 percent jump since 2021. That growth officially positions ERCOT as the fastest-expanding large grid in the country.

To meet this rising load, Texas leaned heavily on clean energy. Solar, wind and battery storage served approximately 36 percent of ERCOT’s electricity needs over the first nine months of the year, a milestone that showcased how quickly Texas has diversified its generation mix. Utility-scale solar surged to 45 TWh, up 50 percent year-over-year, while wind generation reached 87 TWh, a 36 percent increase since 2021.

Battery storage also proved its value. What was once niche is now essential: storage helped shift mid-day excess solar to evening peaks, especially during a historic week in early spring when Texas hit new highs for simultaneous wind, solar and battery output.

Still, natural gas remained the backbone of reliability. Dispatchable thermal resources supplied more than 50 percent of ERCOT’s power 92 percent of the time in Q3 2025. That dual structure of fast-growing renewables backed by firm gas generation is now the defining characteristic of Texas’s energy identity.

But growth cuts both ways. Intermittent generation is up, yet demand is rising faster. Storage is scaling, but not quite at the rate required to fill the evening reliability gap. And while new clean-energy projects are coming online rapidly, the reality of rising population, data center growth, electrification and heavy industrial expansion continues to outpace the additions.

A recent forecast from the Texas Legislative Study Group projects demand could climb another 14 percent by mid-2026, tightening reserve margins unless meaningful additions in capacity, or smarter systemwide usage, arrive soon.

What 2025 meant for the energy ecosystem

The challenges of 2025 pushed Texas to rethink reliability as a shared responsibility between grid operators, generation companies, large load customers, policymakers and consumers. The year underscored several realities:

1. The grid is becoming increasingly weather-dependent. Solar thrives in summer; wind dominates in spring and winter. But extreme heat waves and cold snaps also push demand to unprecedented levels. Reliability now hinges on planning for volatility, not just averages.

2. Infrastructure is straining under rapid load growth. The grid handled multiple stress events in 2025, but it required decisive coordination and emerging technologies, such as storage methods, to do so.

3. Innovation is no longer optional. Advanced forecasting, grid-scale batteries, demand flexibility tools, and hybrid renewable-gas portfolios are now essential components of grid stability.

4. Data centers and industrial electrification are changing the game. Large flexible loads present both a challenge and an opportunity. With proper coordination, they can help stabilize the grid. Without it, they can exacerbate conditions of scarcity.

Texas can meet these challenges, but only with intentional leadership and strong public-private collaboration.

The system-level wins of 2025

Despite volatility, 2025 showcased meaningful progress:

Renewables proved their reliability role. Hitting 36 percent of ERCOT’s generation mix for three consecutive quarters demonstrates that wind, solar and batteries are no longer supplemental — they’re foundational.

Storage emerged as a real asset for reliability. Battery deployments doubled their discharge records in early 2025, showing the potential of short-duration storage during peak periods.

The dual model works when balanced wisely. Natural gas continues to provide firm reliability during low-renewable hours. When paired with renewable growth, Texas gains resilience without sacrificing affordability.

Energy literacy increased across the ecosystem. Communities, utilities and even industrial facilities are paying closer attention to how loads, pricing signals, weather and grid conditions interact—a necessary cultural shift in a fast-changing market.

Where Texas goes in 2026

Texas heads into 2026 with several unmistakable trends shaping the road ahead. Rate adjustments will continue as utilities like CenterPoint request cost recovery to strengthen infrastructure, modernize outdated equipment and add the capacity needed to handle record-breaking growth in load.

At the same time, weather-driven demand is expected to stay unpredictable. While summer peaks will almost certainly set new records, winter is quickly becoming the bigger wild card, especially as natural gas prices and heating demand increasingly drive both reliability planning and consumer stress.

Alongside these pressures, distributed energy is set for real expansion. Rooftop solar, community battery systems and hybrid generation-storage setups are no longer niche upgrades; they’re quickly becoming meaningful grid assets that help support reliability at scale.

And underlying all of this is a cultural shift toward energy literacy. The utilities, regulators, businesses, and institutions that understand load flexibility, pricing signals and efficiency strategies will be the ones best positioned to manage costs and strengthen the grid. In a market that’s evolving this fast, knowing how we use energy matters just as much as knowing how much.

The big picture: 2025 as a blueprint for a resilient future

If 2025 showed us anything, it’s that Texas can scale innovation at a pace few states can match. We saw record renewable output, historic storage milestones and strong thermal performance during strain events. The Texas grid endured significant stress but maintained operational integrity.

But it also showed that reliability isn’t a static achievement; it’s a moving target. As population growth, AI and industrial electrification and weather extremes intensify, Texas must evolve from a reactive posture to a proactive one.

The encouraging part is that Texas has the tools, the talent and the market structure to build one of the most resilient and future-ready power ecosystems in the world. The test ahead isn’t whether we can generate enough power; it’s whether we can coordinate systems, technologies and market behavior fast enough to meet the moment.

And in 2026, that coordination is precisely where the opportunity lies.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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Houston energy expert asks: Who pays when AI outruns the power grid?

Guets Column

For most of the past 20 years, U.S. electricity policy relied on predictable trends in demand. Electricity use, in most regions, increased gradually, forecasts were stable, and utilities adjusted the system in small steps. Power plants, transmission lines, and substations were generally added to reflect shifts in load, rather than growth, and costs were recovered through modest adjustments to customer bills.

Growth in AI data centers has disrupted this model. A single facility can add as much electricity demand as a small town. That demand comes all at once, runs continuously, and has little tolerance for outages. If electricity service drops even briefly, computation stops, and services shut down. Ironically, data centers need reliable service, a point that their emergence is driving concern around for the rest of the grid.

What the numbers say

The International Energy Agency projects global electricity consumption from data centers to double by 2030, reaching roughly 945 TWh, nearly 3 percent of global electricity demand, with consumption growing about 15 percent per year this decade. McKinsey projects that U.S. data center demand alone could grow 20–25 percent per year, with global capacity demand more than tripling by 2030.

After years of roughly 0.5 percent annual demand growth, many forecasts now place total U.S. electricity demand growth closer to 2–3 percent per year through the mid-2030s, with much higher growth in specific regions. In Texas, some forecasters are saying electricity demand could double over the next five years, a staggering 10 percent per year growth rate. What sounds incremental on paper translates into a major challenge on the ground. Meeting this pace of growth is estimated to require $250–$300 billion per year in grid investment, about double what the system has been absorbing.

Where the system starts to strain

The strain appears first in the interconnection queue. It shows up as long waits, backlogs, and delays for connecting new loads and new generation.

Before new generators or large load customers can be connected, a study is required to assess their impact on the grid, whether it can physically handle the added load, and whether upgrades are required. With AI-driven data centers, utilities face far more connection requests than they can realistically support. In ERCOT, large-load interconnection requests exceed 200 gigawatts, most tied to data centers. That amount exceeds historical norms, and it is several times larger than what can be practically studied or built in the near term.

To be clear, public utility commissions are required to study these requests because they must manage system capabilities to ensure minimal disruption. This means engineers spend time evaluating projects that may never be built, while other more commercially viable projects may wait longer for approvals. This extends timelines and makes infrastructure planning less reliable.

Why policymakers are rethinking the rules

Utilities and their regulators must decide how much generation, transmission, and substation capacity to build years before it comes online. Those decisions are based on expected demand at the time projects are approved. When it comes to data centers, by the time infrastructure is completed, they may end up deploying newer, more efficient chips that use less power than originally assumed. This can result in grid infrastructure built for a higher load than what actually materializes, leaving excess capacity that still must be paid for through system-wide rates.

That’s the central dilemma. If utilities build too little capacity, the system operates with less reserve margin. During periods of grid stress, operators have fewer options, increasing the likelihood of curtailments or outages. However, if utilities build too much, customers may be asked to pay for infrastructure that is not fully used.

In response, policymakers are adjusting the rules. In some regions, regulators are moving toward bring-your-own-power approaches that require large data centers to supply or fund part of the capacity needed to serve them or reduce demand during system stress. At the federal level, permitting reforms tied to datacenter infrastructure increasingly treat electricity as a strategic economic input.

As Ken Medlock, senior director at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES), explains:

“Many of the planned data centers are now also adding behind-the-meter options to their development plans because they do not anticipate being able to manage their needs solely from the grid, and they certainly cannot do so with only intermittent power sources.”

Behind-the-meter (BTM) refers to power that a consumer controls on its side of the utility meter, such as on-site gas generation or a dedicated power plant. These resources allow data centers to keep operating during grid-related service. Most facilities remain connected to the grid, but the backup BTM generation serves as insurance for operating their core business.

This shifts responsibility. Utilities traditionally manage reliability across all customers by maintaining an operating reserve margin, or spare capacity. Increasingly, large-load customers manage part of their own electricity reliability needs, which changes how infrastructure is planned and how risk is distributed.

Bottom line

AI-driven load growth is arriving faster and in more concentrated places than the power system was built to accommodate. Utilities and regulators are being forced to make decisions sooner than planned about where to build, how fast to build, and which customers get priority when capacity is limited. The effects extend beyond data centers, showing up in system costs, reliability margins, competition for grid access, and pressure on communities and industries that depend on affordable and dependable power. The issue is not whether electricity can be generated, but how the costs and risks of rapid demand growth are distributed as the system tries to keep up. How regulators balance these decisions will determine who pays as AI demand outruns the power grid.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

Houston startup raises $12M to commercialize quantum energy chip technology

seed funding

Houston-based Casimir has emerged from stealth with a $12 million seed round to commercialize its quantum energy chip.

The round was led by Austin-based Scout Ventures. Lavrock Ventures, Cottonwood Technology, Capital Factory, American Deep Tech, and Tim Draper of Draper Associates also participated in the round. The oversubscribed round exceeded the company’s original $8 million target, according to a news release.

Casimir’s semiconductor chips can generate power from quantum vacuum fields without the need for batteries or charging. The company plans to commercialize its first-generation MicroSparc chip by 2028.

The MicroSparc chip measures 5 millimeters by 5 millimeters and is designed to produce 1.5 volts at 25 microamps, comparable to a small rechargeable battery, without degradation and no replacement cycle.

“Casimir represents exactly the kind of breakthrough dual-use technology Scout Ventures was built to back,” Brad Harrison, founder and managing partner at Scout Ventures, said in the release. “This is based on 100 years of science and we’re finally approaching a commercial product … We’re proud to lead this round and support Casimir’s journey from applied science to deployed technology.”

Casimir says it aims to scale its technology across the ”full power spectrum,” including large-scale energy systems that can power homes, commercial infrastructures and electric vehicles.

Casimir's scientific work has been supported by DARPA-funded nanofabrication research and its technology was incubated at the Limitless Space Institute (LSI). LSI is a nonprofit that works to innovate interstellar travel and was founded by Kam Ghaffarian. Technology investor and serial entrepreneur Ghaffarian has been behind companies like X-energy, Intuitive Machines, Axiom Space and Quantum Space.

Harold “Sonny” White, founder and CEO of Casimir, believes the technology can power devices for years without replacements.

“Millions of devices will operate for years without a battery ever needing to be replaced or recharged because we have engineered a customized Casimir cavity into hardware capable of producing persistent electrical power,” White added in the release. “I spent nearly two decades at NASA studying how we power humanity’s future. That work led me to the Casimir effect and the quantum vacuum, where new tools have allowed us to build on a century of scientific knowledge and bring abundant power to the world.”

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.com.

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