Here are all the events on CERAWeek's Agora track you can't miss if learning more about Houston energy innovation is your goal. Staff photo

Here are 20+ CERAWeek 2025 events featuring Houston energy leaders

where to be

CERAWeek 2025 will host more than 1,400 speakers at its annual energy-focused conference taking place March 10-14, with many hailing from Houston.

Under this year's theme, "Moving Ahead: Energy strategies for a complex world,” panels will tackle topics ranging from policy and regulation, geopolitics, power, grid, and electrification, AI and digital, managing emissions, and more.

Most of the innovation-themed events are organized under the Agora track and will feature many Houston-area startups, universities, companies, and scientists. Here are all the events on the Agora track you can't miss if you want to learn more about Houston energy innovation.

Transition in Action: Energy giants shaping a sustainable future

ExxonMobil's Senior Director, Climate Strategy & Technology Vijay Swarup will examine how major energy companies are driving energy transition goals along with panelists from S&P Global, Aramco Ventures and Gentari Sdn Bhd.

This panel is from 12:30-1 p.m. on Monday, March 10. More info here.

Syzygy Plasmonics | Deploying the World’s Most Economic Biogas to SAF Technology

Hear from Syzygy Plasmonics CEO Trevor Best about how the cleantech company's catalyst and reactor work and how the tools can dramatically reduce the cost of producing SAF from biogas from landfills, wastewater, and dairy farms.

This panel is from 2-2:30 p.m. on Monday, March 10. More info here.

Cemvita | The Future of Bioengineered Feedstocks: A Foresight Perspective

Cemvita CEO Moji Karimi will lead this panel.

This panel is from 4:30-5:15 p.m. on Monday, March 10. More info here.

Innovating with Purpose: Strengthening industrial-academic partnerships

David Dankworth, ExxonMobil's Hydrogen Technology Portfolio Manager, and Brian Korgel, the University of Texas Energy Institute Director, will be joined by leaders from MIT and S&P Global to discuss the crucial relationship between universities and industry in fostering purpose-driven innovation.

This panel is from 8:30–9 a.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More info here.

Solidec | Low-cost, Low-carbon Chemicals from Air

Solidec co-founder and CEO Ryan DuChanois will discuss how the company's approach to producing hydrogen peroxide and other key chemicals can be low-cost and low-carbon, creating a scalable path for a more sustainable chemical industry.

This panel is from 9-9:30 a.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More information here.

Collaboration Spotlight: The Carbon Hub: A public-private partnership leading the way to a sustainable carbon economy

Panelists from Rice University, Huntsman Advanced Materials, CERAWeek, The Kavli Foundation, and SABIC will discuss Rice's Carbon Hub's transformative power and what the future looks like for those creating this new carbon economy. Matteo Pasquali, the founding Director of the Carbon Hub, will be featured on the panel.

This panel is from 9:30-10 a.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More information here.

Rice University | Next-generation Electrolyzers and Electrolysis

Haotian Wang, Associate Professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice University and co-founder of Solidec, will discuss the development of next-generation electrolyzers that enable lower-cost and more energy-efficient carbon capture, chemical manufacturing and critical metal recovery.

This panel is from 9:30–10:15 a.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More information here.

ExxonMobil | Real-world Progress on Building a Low-carbon Business

Schuyler Evans, ExxonMobil's CCS commerical and business development manager low carbon solutions, will speak on how the energy giant is navigating a complex energy transition and share insights into the strategic thinking behind building a new business that helps reduce emissions.

This panel is from 10-10:30 a.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More information here. 

Enovate.AI | AI-driven Advantage: Automate. Optimize. Decarbonize.

Enovate.AI Chief Experience Officer Rebecca Nye, joined by Last Mile Production, will show how its 3-clicks digital strategy empowers operators to make faster, smarter decisions—reducing emissions, enhancing productivity and unlocking new levels of profitability.

This panel is from 10:30–11 a.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More information here.

Financing the Future: Scaling clean energy through innovative investment strategies

Jim Gable, president of Chevron Technology Ventures and vice president of innovation, along with Greentown Lab's new CEO Georgina Campbell Flatter, will discuss the bankability of technologies in different geographies, investment opportunities in emerging markets, sources of funding and risk management strategies investors are using. Panelists also include leaders from Siemens Energy, Energy Impact Partners, and S&P Global Commodity Insights.

This panel is from 12:30–1:10 p.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More information here.

Sage Geosystems | Geothermal at the Speed of Need: How Sage Geosystems is meeting growing energy demand

Learn from Jason Peart, general manager of strategy and development, how Sage's approach to geothermal technology is tackling the fast-growing energy demands of critical sectors, including data centers, utilities, energy storage, and US Department of Defense projects.

This panel is from 1:30–2 p.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More information here.

Rice University | Valuing Nature-based Solutions for CO2 Removal

Carrie Masiello, director of the Rice Sustainability Institute, will introduce to the breadth of nature-based solutions possible, explore some of the most exciting opportunities and give guidance on how to think rigorously about matching individual NBS opportunities to specific portfolio needs.

This panel is from 1:30–2:15 p.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More information here.

Square Robot | Bridging the Divide: How Square Robot's tank inspections align corporate strategy with on-the-ground reality

Square Robot CEO David Lamont will discuss how companies can keep their tank assets online by adopting new technology and navigating the challenges of aligning corporate objectives with site-level realities.

This panel is from 3–3:30 p.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More information here.

The Green Gold Rush: A multi-trillion dollar opportunity?

Bobby Tutor, chairman of Houston Energy Transition Initiative and CEO of Artemis Energy Partners, will be joined by leaders from Accenture, S&P Global, and BeyondNetZero to discuss the immense economic potential of climate solutions and highlight the business opportunities created by the transition to a low-carbon economy.

This panel is from 4–4:30 p.m. on Tuesday, March 11. More information here.

ExxonMobil | Applying Technology to Maximize Value in the Permian Basin

James Ritchie, Exxon's vice president upstream technology portfolio, will share the latest technologies being developed and deployed to improve recovery and capital efficiency in the Permian Basin and demonstrate how these technologies and innovations maximize overall value while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and water usage.

This panel is from 2:30–3 p.m. on Wednesday, March 12. More information here.

Rice University | Plasma Foundry for Scalable Industrial Decarbonization

Aditya Mohite, a Rice professor and the faculty director of the Rice Engineering Initiative for Energy Transition and Sustainability (REINVENTS), will share how The Plasma Foundry, a 1:1 customized accelerator at Rice, is using cold plasma technology and its accelerator model to provide disruptive solutions at scale.

This panel is from 9:30–10:15 a.m. on Thursday, March 13. More information here.

Fervo Energy | Speed and Scale: The Geothermal Decade Is Now

Quinn Woodard Jr., Fervo Energy's senior director, power generation and surface facilities, will discuss how the company is pioneering transformative EGS technology to power data centers, homes and beyond.

This panel is from 10:30–11 a.m. on Thursday, March 13. More information here.

Corrolytics | Digitizing and Revolutionizing Corrosion Detection and Monitoring for Industrial Assets

Anwar Sadek, Corrolytics co-founder and CEO, will share how the company is revolutionizing corrosion detection and monitoring with patented technology to proactively enhance safety, reduce costs and extend asset lifespan.

This panel is from 10:30–11 a.m. on Thursday, March 13. More information here. 

Zeta Energy | The Rise of Lithium-Sulfur Batteries: A solution to critical metal constraints

Rodrigo Salvatierra, Zeta's chief science officer, will introduce Zeta Energy’s lithium-sulfurized carbon technology, which effectively addresses the key limitations of lithium-sulfur batteries.

This panel is from 3–3:30 p.m. on Thursday, March 13. More information here.

Future Cities on the Move: Innovative pathways for sustainable urban mobility

Lisa Lin, Harris County's director of sustainability, will speak on this panel on successful public-private partnerships driving innovation in sustainable transport by leveraging technology and data analytics. She'll be joined by Aberdeen's council co-lead and leaders from S&P Global and GreenCap, based in Cape Town, South Africa.

This panel is from 3:30–4 p.m. on Thursday, March 13. More information here.

Collaboration Spotlight: Building a resilient Gulf Coast energy and chemical sector

Greater Houston Partnership and HETI's Jane Stricker will join Ramanan Krishnamoorti from the University of Houston and leaders from Argonne National Laboratory and SABIC to explore opportunities and pathways to strengthen the US Gulf Coast’s global leadership position in base chemical manufacturing and the national security and economic opportunities that innovation and process integration create.

This panel is from 4:30–5 p.m. on Thursday, March 13. More information here.

Houston-based Solidec took home the top TEX-E price and $25,000 at last year's Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition. Photo courtesy of HETI

50+ teams announced for CERAWeek's annual clean tech pitch competition

CERA pitches

The Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship, the Houston Energy Transition Initiative and the Texas Entrepreneurship Exchange for Energy announced the 30-plus energy ventures and five student teams that will pitch at the 2025 Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition during CERAWeek next month.

The ventures are focused on driving efficiency and advancements toward the energy transition and will each present a 3.5-minute pitch before a network of investors and industry partners during CERAWeek's Agora program.

The pitch competition is divided up into the TEX-E university track, in which Texas student-led energy startups compete for $50,000 in cash prizes, and the industry ventures track.

Teams competing in the TEX-E Prize track include:

  • ECHO
  • HEXAspec
  • HydroStor Analytics
  • Nanoborne
  • Pattern Materials

The industry track is subdivided into three additional tracks, spanning materials to clean energy and will feature 36 companies. The top three companies from each industry track will be named. The winner of the CERAWeek competition will also have the chance to advance and compete for the $1 million investment prize at the Startup World Cup in October 2025.

Teams come from around the world, including several notable Houston-based ventures, such as Corrolytics, Rheom Materials, AtmoSpark Technologies, and others. Click here to see the full list of companies and investor groups that will participate.

The pitch competition will be held Wednesday, March 12, at CERAWeek from 1-4:30 pm. An Agora pass is required to attend.

Those without passes can catch more than 50 companies at a free pitch preview at the Ion. Pitches will be followed by private meetings with venture capitalists, corporate innovation groups, industry leaders, and tech scouts. The preview will be held Tuesday, March 11, from 9:30 am to 2:30 pm at the Ion. It's free to attend, but registration is required. Click here to register.

Last year, Houston-based Solidec took home the top TEX-E price and $25,000 cash awards. The startup extracts molecules from water and air, then transforms them into pure chemicals and fuels that are free of carbon emissions. Its co-founder and Rice University professor Haotian Wang was recently awarded the 2025 Norman Hackerman Award in Chemical Research.

Rice professor and Solidec co-founder Haotian Wang's research enables CO2 to be converted into valuable chemicals and fuels. Photo courtesy Welch Foundation.

Houston clean energy pioneer earns prestigious Welch Foundation award

Awards Season

A Rice University professor has earned a prestigious award from the Houston-based Welch Foundation, which supports chemistry research.

The foundation gave its 2025 Norman Hackerman Award in Chemical Research to Haotian Wang for his “exceptionally creative” research involving carbon dioxide electrochemistry. His research enables CO2 to be converted into valuable chemicals and fuels.

The award included $100,000 and a bronze sculpture.

“Dr. Wang’s extensive body of work and rigorous pursuit of efficient electrochemical solutions to practical problems set him apart as a top innovator among early-career researchers,” Catherine Murphy, chairwoman of the foundation’s Scientific Advisory Board, said in a news release.

Wang is an associate professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice. The department’s Wang Group develops nanomaterials and electrolyzers for energy and environmental uses, such as energy storage, chemical and fuel generation, green synthesis and water treatment.

Wang also is co-founder of Solidec, a Houston startup that aims to turn his innovations into low-carbon fuels, carbon-negative hydrogen and carbon-neutral peroxide. The startup extracts molecules from water and air, then transforms them into pure chemicals and fuels that are free of carbon emissions.

Solidec has been selected for Chevron Technology Ventures’ catalyst program, a Rice One Small Step grant, a U.S. Department of Energy grant, and the first cohort of the Activate Houston program.

“Dr. Wang’s use of electrochemistry to close the carbon cycle and develop renewable sources of industrial chemicals directly intersects with the Welch Foundation mission of advancing chemistry while improving life,” Fred Brazelton, chairman and director of the Welch Foundation, said in the release.

Ramamoorthy Ramesh, executive vice president for research at Rice University, added: “We are proud to (Dr. Wang) at Rice. He’s using chemical engineering to solve a big problem for humanity, everything that the Welch Foundation stands for.”

Last year, the Hackerman Award went to Baylor College of Medicine's Livia Schiavinato Eberlin, who's known for her groundbreaking work in the application of mass spectrometry technologies, which are changing how physicians treat cancer and analyze tissues. Read more here. 

The inaugural Activate Houston cohort has 11 fellows across energy, materials, life sciences, space, and other sectors. Photo via activate.org

6 energy transition innovators named to inaugural Houston hardtech fellowship cohort

onboarding

A national hardtech-focused organization has named its 2024 batch of innovators, which includes the inaugural Houston-based cohort.

Activate named 62 fellows and 50 companies for is latest class, which spans Berkley, California — where the organization is based, Boston, New York, and Houston. Additionally, Activate Anywhere, the program's virtual and remote cohort, was named. According to Activate, it received over 1,000 applicants.

“People, not ideas alone, move the world forward. It is through the drive and determination of brilliant scientists and engineers that we are witnessing true progress,” says Activate CEO Cyrus Wadia in a news release. “Our current Activate Fellows and alumni are already pioneering innovative solutions that make a measurable difference. We’re thrilled to support the next 62 visionaries who will lead the charge in addressing our most urgent issues through groundbreaking science and technology.”

It's the first year Activate has hosted a Houston-based cohort. The organization initially announced its expansion early last year. The inaugural cohort has 11 fellows across energy, materials, life sciences, space, and other sectors.

The named Houston fellows who are working on energy transition solutions include:

     
  • Krish Mehta, founder and CEO of Phoenix Materials, a company that decarbonizes concrete using industrial waste.
  • Gabriel Cossio, founder and CEO of Nanoscale Labs, which is developing a high-throughput and low-cost nanomanufacturing system.
  • Matthew McDermott, founder and CEO of Refound Materials, a materials technology company developing more efficient synthesis recipes for accelerated materials discovery.
  • Alec Ajnsztajn, founder and CEO of Coflux Purification, a company that's creating a product that allows industries and water providers to cheaply remove forever chemicals to provide safe drinking water at a fraction of current energy use.
  • Ryan DuChanois and Yang Xia , co-founders of Solidec, a Houston-based startup redefining chemical manufacturing.

The rest of the cohort includes:

  • Meagan Pitcher, co-founder and CEO of Bairitone Health, which brings advanced imaging diagnostics into the home environment.
  • Wei Meng, co-founder and CEO of LumiStrain, a startup offering novel technology for mechanical strain mapping.
  • Sonia Dagan of Atolla Tech, which is developing a lidar and machine-learning algorithm for identifying and quantifying airborne insects.
  • Rodrigo Alvarez-Icaza, founder and CEO of Elysium Robotics, a company that's replacing electric motors with muscle-like actuators to enable massive deployment of highly capable and low-cost robotic systems.
  • Blake Herren, CEO and Co-founder of Raven Space Systems, which is modernizing composite manufacturing with 3D printing and Industry 4.0 solutions to build the factories of the future.
The 12-week program received a record number of applications, that spanned the campus' degree offerings. Photo courtesy of Rice University

2 sustainability-focused student startups named to Houston accelerator

ready to grow

Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation & Entrepreneurship, or Lilie, has named eight teams to the second cohort of the Lilie Summer Venture Studio, and two have sustainability as a goal.

According to Rice, the 12-week program received a record number of applications, that spanned the campus' degree offerings.

“We are thrilled to see such a high level of interest and excitement from Rice students for a high-growth venture accelerator,” Kyle Judah, executive director of Lilie, said in a statement. “The diversity and creativity in this year's applications were truly inspiring, and we’re excited to support these promising ventures with the resources and mentorship they need to hit escape velocity and create the next generation of pillar companies for Houston, Texas and the world.”

The selected teams will receive $15,000 in non-dilutive funding from the accelerator, along with access to coworking space and personalized mentorship in the Liu Idea Lab.

Coflux Purification, a patent-pending in-stream module that breaks down PFAS using a novel absorbent for chemical-free water, was named to the cohort, as was Solidec, a technology platform that extracts molecules from water and air, transforms them into pure chemicals and fuels without any carbon emissions.

Here are the rest of the teams for the 2024 Lilie Summer Venture Studio:

     
  • Docflow, focused on streamlining residency shift scheduling
  • JewelVision, building virtual fitting rooms for jewelry e-commerce retailers using generative AI
  • Levytation, using data science and AI to answer critical questions about sales and customers for coffee shop management
  • OnGuard, a marketplace to book off-duty police officers and security professionals
  • Roster, leverages data on athletes in the NCAA Transfer Portal to automatically send updates on players to coaches
  • Veloci, a running shoe venture that addresses common pains through shoe design

Lilie launched the Summer Venture Studio last year. According to Rice, two out of the six teams selected, Helix Earth Technologies and Tierra Climate, which both also tackle sustainability challenges, raised venture capital funds after completing the accelerator program.

Helix Earth Technologies also went on to earn the inaugural TEX-E Prize at CERAWeek in 2023.

“The track record of our Summer Venture Studio Accelerator speaks for itself, despite being early in our second year," Taylor Anne Adams, head of venture acceleration programs at the Liu Idea Lab, said in a statement. "This is the power of entrepreneurship programming that is designed by founders, for founders, that happens at the Liu Idea Lab.”

Last year, Lilie also named 11 successful business leaders with ties to Houston to its first Lilie’s Leadership Council. Each agreed to donate time and money to the university’s entrepreneurship programs.

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

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Texas among top states for EV charging access, report shows

by the numbers

A new study from FinanceBuzz reports that Texas has the fifth most public electric vehicle charging stations among states in the U.S.

In its Electric Vehicle (EV) Statistics [2025]: Trends in Sales, Savings, and More report, FinanceBuzz, a personal finance and investment adviser, compiled electric vehicle data to find sales trends, adoption rates, charging infrastructure, costs, savings and more.

Texas has a total of 3,709 public EV charging stations, which equals about 16 stations per 1,000 EVs, according to the report. The remaining top five included:

  • No. 1 California with 17,122 EV charging stations
  • No. 2 New York with 4,814 EV charging stations
  • No.3 Massachusetts with 3,738 EV charging stations
  • No. 4 Florida with 3,715 EV charging stations

Los Angeles had the most public charging stations at 1,609 among U.S. cities. Austin was Texas’s top city with 656 stations.

The study also looked at how much Americans are spending on transportation, and found that the average American using a gas vehicle spends $1,865 annually on fuel. FinanceBuzz found that electric vehicle owners would pay 65 percent less on energy costs. Calculations were based on driving 14,489 miles annually, which measures to 37.9 miles per day. The full report sourced data from the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Transportation, AAA, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other organizations.

The report said Americans purchased over 1.5 million EVs in 2024, which equals approximately 10 percent of all new light-duty vehicles sold, citing information from the International Council on Clean Transportation.

While Tesla remains the most popular make, 24 new EV models were launched in 2024 by other companies, which represents a 15 percent increase from the previous year.

Other trends in the report included:

  • The U.S. now has more than 64,000 public charging stations and over 168,000 charging ports, which is up from fewer than 1,000 stations in 2010.
  • An average EV owner will spend about $654 per year on electricity, compared to $1,865 for a gas-powered vehicle. The savings equate to about $1,211 per year.
  • In 2024, U.S. EV sales surpassed 1.5 million, but the pace slowed compared to the previous year, with a 10 percent increase versus 40 percent in 2023.
  • Insuring an EV can be more costly because parts are harder to come by, making repairs and replacements more expensive.
  • In the second quarter of 2024, nearly half of new EVs were leased, which is a 28 percentage point increase since 2021.

CenterPoint Energy names new COO as resiliency initiatives continue

new hire

CenterPoint Energy has named Jesus Soto Jr. as its new executive vice president and chief operating officer.

An energy industry veteran with deep ties to Texas, Soto will oversee the company's electric operations, gas operations, safety, supply chain, and customer care functions. The company says Soto will also focus on improving reliability and meeting the increased energy needs in the states CenterPoint serves.

"We are pleased to be able to welcome a leader of Jesus Soto's caliber to CenterPoint's executive team,” Jason Wells, CEO and president of CenterPoint, said in a news release. “We have one of the most dynamic growth stories in the industry, and over the next five years we will deliver over $31 billion of investments across our footprint as part of our capital plan. Jesus's deep understanding and background are the perfect match to help us deliver this incredible scope of work at-pace that will foster the economic development and growth demands in our key markets. He will also be instrumental in helping us continue to focus on improving safety and delivering better reliability for all the communities we are fortunate to serve.”

Soto comes to CenterPoint with over 30 years of experience in leading large teams and executing large scale capital projects. As a longtime Houstonian, he served in roles as executive vice president of Quanta Services and COO for Mears Group Inc. He also served in senior leadership roles at other utility and energy companies, including PG&E Corporation in Northern California and El Paso Corp. in Houston.

Soto has a bachelor's degree in civil engineering from the University of Texas at El Paso, and a master's degree in civil engineering from Texas A&M University. He has a second master's degree in business administration from the University of Phoenix.

“I'm excited to join CenterPoint's high-performing team,” Soto said in the news release. “It's a true privilege to be able to serve our 7 million customers in Texas, Indiana, Ohio and Minnesota. We have an incredible amount of capital work ahead of us to help meet the growing energy needs of our customers and communities, especially across Texas.”

Soto will join the company on Aug. 11 and report to Wells as CenterPoint continues on its Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative and Systemwide Resiliency Plan.

“To help realize our resiliency and growth goals, I look forward to helping our teams deliver this work safely while helping our customers experience better outcomes,” Soto added in the news release. “They expect, and deserve, no less.”

Oil markets on edge: Geopolitics, supply risks, and what comes next

guest column

Oil prices are once again riding the waves of geopolitics. Uncertainty remains a key factor shaping global energy trends.

As of June 25, 2025, U.S. gas prices were averaging around $3.22 per gallon, well below last summer’s levels and certainly not near any recent high. Meanwhile, Brent crude is trading near $68 per barrel, though analysts warn that renewed escalation especially involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $90 or even $100. Trump’s recent comments that China may continue purchasing Iranian oil add yet another layer of geopolitical complexity.

So how should we think about the state of the oil market and what lies ahead over the next year?

That question was explored on the latest episode of The Energy Forum with experts Skip York and Abhi Rajendran, who both bring deep experience in analyzing global oil dynamics.

“About 20% of the world’s oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Skip. “When conflict looms, even the perception of disruption can move the market $5 a barrel or more.”

This is exactly what we saw recently: a market reacting not just to actual supply and demand, but to perceived risk. And that risk is compounding existing challenges, where global demand remains steady, but supply has been slow to respond.

Abhi noted that U.S. shale production has been flat so far this year, and that given the market’s volatility, it’s becoming harder to stay short on oil. In his view, a higher price floor may be taking hold, with longer-lasting upward pressure likely if current dynamics continue.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is signaling supply increases, but actual delivery has underwhelmed. Add in record-breaking summer heat in the Middle East, pulling up seasonal demand, and it’s easy to see why both experts foresee a return to the $70–$80 range, even without a major shock.

Longer-term, structural changes in China’s energy mix are starting to reshape demand patterns globally. Diesel and gasoline may have peaked, while petrochemical feedstock growth continues.

Skip noted that China has chosen to expand mobility through “electrons, not molecules,” a reference to electric vehicles over conventional fuels. He pointed out that EVs now account for over 50% of monthly vehicle sales, a signal of a longer-term shift in China’s energy demand.

But geopolitical context matters as much as market math. In his recent policy brief, Jim Krane points out that Trump’s potential return to a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran is no longer guaranteed strong support from Gulf allies.

Jim points out that Saudi and Emirati leaders are taking a more cautious approach this time, worried that another clash with Iran could deter investors and disrupt progress on Vision 2030. Past attacks and regional instability continue to shape their more restrained approach.

And Iran, for its part, has evolved. The “dark fleet” of sanctions-evasion tankers has expanded, and exports are booming up to 2 million barrels per day, mostly to China. Disruption won’t be as simple as targeting a single export terminal anymore, with infrastructure like the Jask terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Where do we go from here?

Skip suggests we may see prices drift upward through 2026 as OPEC+ runs out of spare capacity and U.S. shale declines. Abhi is even more bullish, seeing potential for a quicker climb if demand strengthens and supply falters.

We’re entering a phase where geopolitical missteps, whether in Tehran, Beijing, or Washington, can have outsized impacts. Market fundamentals matter, but political risk is the wildcard that could rewrite the price deck overnight.

As these dynamics continue to evolve, one thing is clear: energy policy, diplomacy, and investment strategy must be strategically coordinated to manage risk and maintain market stability. The stakes for global markets are simply too high for misalignment.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.