Here are some things to know about the situation with the pipeline fire burning just outside of Houston. Photo via Getty Images

A pipeline fire that forced hundreds of people to flee their homes in the Houston suburbs burned for a third day Wednesday, with officials saying they don't expect it to be extinguished until sometime Thursday evening.

Officials said residents who had to evacuate would be allowed to return to their homes starting Wednesday evening.

Authorities have offered few details about what prompted the driver of an SUV to hit an aboveground valve on the pipeline on Monday, sparking the blaze.

Here are some things to know about the situation with the pipeline fire:

What caused the fire?

Officials say the underground pipeline, which runs under high-voltage power lines in a grassy corridor between a Walmart and a residential neighborhood in Deer Park, was damaged when the SUV driver left the store's parking lot, entered the wide grassy area and went through a fence surrounding the valve equipment.

Authorities have offered few details on what caused the vehicle to hit the pipeline valve, the identity of the driver or what happened to them. The pipeline company on Wednesday called it an accident. Deer Park officials said preliminary investigations by police and FBI agents found no evidence of a terrorist attack.

Deer Park police won't be able to reach the burned-out vehicle until the flame has been extinguished. Once the area is safe, the department will be able to continue its investigation and confirm specifics, city spokesperson Kaitlyn Bluejacket said in an email Wednesday.

The valve equipment appears to have been protected by a chain-link fence topped with barbed wire. The pipeline's operator has not responded to questions about any other safety protections that were in place.

Who is responsible for the pipeline?

Energy Transfer is the Dallas-based owner of the pipeline, a 20-inch-wide (50-centemeter-wide) conduit that runs for miles through the Houston area.

It carries natural gas liquids through the suburbs of Deer Park and La Porte, both of which are southeast of Houston. Energy Transfer said the fire had diminished overnight and was continuing to “safely burn itself out” on Wednesday.

Energy Transfer also built the Dakota Access Pipeline, which has been at the center of protests and legal battles. The company’s executive chairman, Kelcy Warren, has given millions of dollars in campaign contributions to Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

What's being done to extinguish the fire?

Energy Transfer said its crews were working Wednesday to install specialized isolation equipment on both sides of the damaged section that will help extinguish the fire.

Once the equipment is installed, which could take several hours of welding, the isolated section of the pipeline will be purged with nitrogen, which will extinguish the fire, company and local officials said. After that, damaged components can be repaired.

“The safest way to manage this process is to let the products burn off,” Energy Transfer said.

Late Wednesday afternoon, Deer Park officials said repair work on the pipeline to help speed up the process to put out the fire wasn't expected to be completed until 6 p.m. on Thursday. Once finished, the fire was anticipated to be extinguished within two to three hours.

How have residents been impacted?

Authorities evacuated nearly 1,000 homes at one point and ordered people in nearby schools to shelter in place. Officials said that starting at 6 p.m. on Wednesday, residents in Deer Park and La Porte who had to evacuate would be allowed to return to their homes. A portion of a highway near the pipeline would remain closed, officials said.

Hundreds of customers lost power. Officials said Wednesday afternoon that only two customers remained without electricity in the Deer Park and La Porte area. Repairs to all of the power distribution lines affected by the fire had been completed.

Deer Park's statement said Energy Transfer was “prioritizing the safety of the community and environment as it implements its emergency response plan.”

“We appreciate the patience and understanding of all residents during this ongoing situation,” Deer Park officials said.

By late Tuesday, about 400 evacuees remained, and some expressed frustration over being forced to quickly flee and not being given any timeline for when they will be able to return.

“We literally walked out with the clothes on our backs, the pets, and just left the neighborhood with no idea where we were going,” said Kristina Reff, who lives near the fire. “That was frustrating.”

What about pollution from the fire?

Energy Transfer and Harris County officials have said that air quality monitoring shows no immediate risk to individuals, despite the huge tower of billowing flame that shot hundreds of feet into the air, creating thick black smoke that hovered over the area.

Houston is the nation’s petrochemical heartland and is home to a cluster of refineries and plants and thousands of miles of pipelines. Explosions and fires are a familiar sight, and some have been deadly, raising recurring questions about industry efforts to protect the public and the environment.

The blaze forced evacuations and shelter orders in the area, including at schools. Photo via Getty Images

Large pipeline explodes in Houston after a vehicle struck a valve, officials say

breaking news

A massive pipeline explosion that sent a towering flame over neighborhoods near Houston for hours on Monday began after a vehicle drove through a fence and struck an above-ground valve, officials said.

Deer Park officials said police and local FBI agents found no evidence of “terroristic activity" and said it appears to be an isolated incident. The ongoing investigation includes an effort to identify the driver. The blaze forced evacuations and shelter orders in the area, including at schools.

Operators shut off the flow of natural gas liquids in the pipeline, but so much remained in the miles of pipe that firefighters could do nothing but watch and hose down adjacent homes until it burned itself out. That could take hours, perhaps into Tuesday, Deer Park Mayor Jerry Mouton Jr. said.

“The fire, it’s very hot, so a lot of the house structures that are adjacent to that are still catching on fire even though we’re putting a lot of water on them,” Mouton said at an afternoon news conference.

Firefighters were dispatched at 9:55 a.m., after an explosion at a valve station in Deer Park and right next to La Porte rattled adjacent homes and businesses, including a Walmart. Deer Park officials said an SUV drove into the valve after going through a fence on the side of the Walmart parking lot.

Nearly 1,000 homes were in the evacuation area, said Lee Woodward, a spokesperson for La Porte.

At the news conference, officials said only one person, a firefighter, sustained a minor injury. Later, Deer Park spokesperson Kaitlyn Bluejacket said four people were injured. She didn’t provide details about the severity of the injuries.

Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said in a statement that 20 miles (32 kilometers) of pipeline between the two closed vales must burn off before the fire stops.

Anna Lewis, who was walking into the nearby Walmart when the explosion happened, said it sounded “like a bomb went off.” She said everyone inside was rushed to the back of the store and then taken across the street to a grocery store before being bussed to a community center.

“It scared me,” she said. “You really don’t know what to do when it’s happening.”

Geselle Melina Guerra said she and her boyfriend heard the explosion as they were having breakfast in their mobile home.

“All of a sudden we hear this loud bang and then I see something bright, like orange, coming from our back door that’s outside,” said Guerra, who lives within the evacuation area.

Guerra’s boyfriend, Jairo Sanchez, said they’re used to evacuations because they live close to other plants near the highway, but he hadn’t seen an explosion before in his 10 years living there.

“We just drove as far as we could because we didn’t know what was happening,” Sanchez said.

Houston, Texas’ largest city, is the nation’s petrochemical heartland and is home to a cluster of refineries and plants and thousands of miles of pipelines. Explosions and fires are a familiar sight in the area, including some that have been deadly, raising recurring questions about the adequacy of industry efforts to protect the public and the environment.

Letting the fire burn out is better, from an environmental perspective, than trying to attack the flames with some kind of suppressing foam or liquid, said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a petroleum engineering professor at the University of Houston.

“Otherwise it’s going to release a lot of volatile organics into the environment,” he said.

Still, there will undoubtedly be negative environmental consequences, including a release of soot, carbons and organic material, he said.

The pipeline’s owner, Dallas-based Energy Transfer, said air monitoring equipment was being set up near the plume of fire and smoke, which could be seen from at least 10 miles (16 kilometers) away at one point.

A statement from Harris County Pollution Control on Monday afternoon said no volatile organic compounds had been detected. The statement said particulate matter from the smoke was moderate and not an immediate risk to healthy people, although “sensitive populations may want to take precautions.” The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality said it was also monitoring the air.

Natural gas liquids are used primarily in the manufacturing of plastics and basic and intermediate chemicals, Krishnamoorti said.

The fire burned through nearby power lines, and the website PowerOutage.us said several thousand customers were without power at one point in Harris County.

In addition to damage closest to the flame, the area’s extensive pipeline infrastructure will also have to be closely inspected and monitored for damage, Krishnamoorti said.

He said that “in the grand scheme of things,” the fire “won’t be a major disrupter of supply chains.”

The Railroad Commission of Texas, which regulates oil and gas in the state, said its safety inspectors were investigating. The agency said they were receiving information from other pipeline operators about what they were doing to ensure the safety of their systems.

Margaret Newman, who lives on the edge of the evacuation zone, said that when she heard the explosion she went out into her yard and could see the flame shooting above the trees. She lost electricity but has a generator that will keep one of the rooms in her home cool, so she planned to stay.

Newman said that in general, she’s not bothered by living so close to such industry. She said she thought the flame was getting smaller by Monday afternoon.

“I keep waiting for it to go out, poof!” she said. “I’m tired of this.”

In addition to its No. 22 overall ranking, Texas took first place in the "Vulnerability to Climate Change" category.

Texas named most vulnerable state to climate change in new report

lone star disappointment

The Lone Star State performed most averagely in a new report that ranked all 50 states on environmental protection.

Texas ranked No. 22 on the report from SmileHub, a nonprofit tech platform using data to evaluate charities. The report analyzed 23 metrics — from energy efficiency score and industrial toxins per square mile of land area to climate change vulnerability — factoring in data from U.S. Census Bureau, Internal Revenue Service, Department of Agriculture, and more.

"The U.S. produces over 292 million tons of waste per year, or over 4.9 pounds per person per day, according to the latest data from the Environmental Protection Agency," reads the report. "Additionally, due to pollution, California, Oregon, Michigan, Indiana and South Carolina each have over 12,000 miles of river unsuitable for human contact. Pollution and waste are issues across the U.S., but some states work harder than others to limit their impact."

In addition to its middle-of-the-pack No. 22 overall ranking, Texas took first place in the "Vulnerability to Climate Change" category. Here's how else the state measured up:

  • No. 18 – Environmental Protection Charities per Capita
  • No. 36 – Share of State Land Designated for Parks and Wildlife
  • No. 28 – Energy Efficiency Score
  • No. 28 – Share of Population Using Green Transportation
  • No. 33 – Total Tonnage of Landfill Waste per Capita
  • No. 28 – Industrial Toxins per Square Mile of Land Area

It's not the first time the state performed poorly on recent environmental reports. In April, WalletHub evaluated the current health of states' environment and residents’ environmental-friendliness. Texas ranked No. 38, meaning it was the thirteenth least green state, only scoring 50.40 points out of 100.

Additionally, Houston has stood out for the wrong reasons. In May, Houston was ranked as the No. 15 most polluted city in the U.S. according to data compiled by the National Public Utilities Council. No other Texas city appears in the ranking. Three California cities — Bakersfield, Visalia, and Fresno — took the top three spots.

Houston ranks as the 15th most polluted city in the U.S. No other Texas city appears in the ranking. Photo via Getty Images

Houston lands on the wrong end of national pollution report

big yikes

Houston just made a list that no one wants it to be on.

Data compiled by the National Public Utilities Council ranks Houston as the 15th most polluted city in the U.S. No other Texas city appears in the ranking. Three California cities — Bakersfield, Visalia, and Fresno — took the top three spots.

The ranking considers a city’s average volume of fine particulate matter in the air per year. Fine particulate matter (formally known as PM2.5) includes soot, soil dust, and sulphates.

The council based its ranking on the average annual concentration of PM2.5 as measured in micrograms per cubic meter of air, known as µg/m3. The ranking lists Houston’s average annual µg/m3 as 11.4. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a top µg/m3 of 5, while the American Lung Association sets 9 µg/m as an average annual guideline.

A report released in 2024 by Smart Survey found that the Houston area had just 38 days of good air quality the previous year.

“Most of Houston’s air pollution comes from industrial sources and diesel engines, although sources as diverse as school buses and meat cooking also contribute to … the problem,” the nonprofit Air Alliance Houston says.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says PM2.5 poses “the greatest risk to health” of any particulate matter. Among other health issues, fine particulate matter contributes to cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, and chronic pulmonary disease.

Among the sources of PM2.5 are wildfires, wood-burning stoves, and coal-fired plants, according to the American Lung Association.

The WHO says air pollution causes 7 million deaths annually and may cost the global economy $18 trillion to 25 trillion by 2060. With 70 percent of the population expected to live in urban centers by mid-century, cities are at the forefront of efforts to reduce pollution, according to National Public Utilities Council.

Texas — along with 24 other states — has filed lawsuits against a recent set of soot pollution standards from the EPA. Photo via Pixabay/Pexels

Texas files lawsuit challenging new EPA rule on deadly soot pollution

all those opposed

A new Biden administration rule that sets tougher standards for deadly soot pollution faced a barrage of legal challenges Wednesday, as 25 Republican-led states — including Texas — and a host of business groups filed lawsuits seeking to block the rule in court.

Twenty-four states, led by attorneys general from Kentucky and West Virginia, filed a joint challenge stating that new Environmental Protection Agency rule would raise costs for manufacturers, utilities and families and could block new manufacturing plants and infrastructure such as roads and bridges. Texas filed a separate suit, as did business groups led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and National Association of Manufacturers.

“The EPA’s new rule has more to do with advancing President (Joe) Biden’s radical green agenda than protecting Kentuckians’ health or the environment, said Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman, who is leading the joint lawsuit along with West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

The EPA rule “will drive jobs and investment out of Kentucky and overseas, leaving employers and hardworking families to pay the price,” Coleman said.

The soot rule is one of several EPA dictates under attack from industry groups and Republican-led states. The Supreme Court heard arguments last month on a GOP challenge to the agency's “good neighbor rule,” which restricts smokestack emissions from power plants and other industrial sources that burden downwind areas.

Three energy-producing states — Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia — challenged the rule, along with the steel industry and other groups, calling it costly and ineffective. The rule is on hold in a dozen states because of the court challenges.

In opposing the soot rule, Republicans and industry groups say the United States already has some of the strictest air quality standards in the world — tougher than the European Union or major polluters such as China and India.

Tightening U.S. standards "wouldn't improve public health, but it would put as many as 30% of all U.S. counties out of compliance under federal law, leading to aggressive new permitting requirements that could effectively block new economic activity,'' Coleman said.

The EPA rule sets maximum levels of fine particle pollution — more commonly known as soot — at 9 micrograms per cubic meter of air, down from 12 micrograms established a decade ago under the Obama administration.

Environmental and public health groups hailed the rule as a major step to improve the health of Americans, including future generations. EPA scientists have estimated exposure at previous limits contributed to thousands of early deaths from heart disease and lung cancer, along with other health problems.

EPA Administrator Michael Regan said the new soot rule, finalized last month, would create $46 billion in net health benefits by 2032, including prevention of up to 800,000 asthma attacks and 4,500 premature deaths. The rule will especially benefit children, older adults and those with heart and lung conditions, Regan said, as well as people in low-income and minority communities adversely affected by decades of industrial pollution.

"We do not have to sacrifice people to have a prosperous and booming economy,″ Regan said.

Biden is seeking reelection, and some fellow Democrats have warned that a tough new soot standard could harm his chances in key industrial states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

The EPA and White House officials brushed aside those concerns, saying the industry has developed technical improvements to meet previous soot standards and can adapt to meet the new ones. Soot pollution has declined by 42% since 2000, even as the U.S. gross domestic product has increased by 52%, Regan said.

The new rule does not impose pollution controls on specific industries. Instead, it lowers the annual standard for fine particulate matter for overall air quality. The EPA will use air sampling to identify counties and other areas that do not meet the new standard. States would then have 18 months to develop compliance plans for those areas. States that do not meet the new standard by 2032 could face penalties, although EPA said it expects that 99% of U.S. counties will be able to meet the revised annual standard by 2032.

Industry groups and Republican officials dispute that and say a lower soot limit could put hundreds of U.S. counties out of compliance.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce warned the White House in January that 43% of total particulate emissions come from wildfires, and called the pollution standard "the wrong tool to address this problem.''

The EPA said it will work with states, counties and tribes to account for and respond to wildfires, an increasing source of soot pollution, especially in the West, where climate change has led to longer wildfire seasons, with more frequent and intense fires. The agency allows states and air agencies to request exemptions from air-quality standards due to “exceptional events," including wildfires and prescribed fires.

Besides Kentucky, West Virginia and Texas, other states challenging the EPA rule include: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming.

All three cases were filed before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia.

A University of Houston team looked into what areas in Houston had the highest impact on emissions and how certain meteorological factors play into ozone formation. Photo via UH.edu

UH team unlocks innovative approach to pinpoint pollution factors

zooming in on emissions

A team of researchers at the University of Houston are using machine learning to help guide pollution fighting strategies.

As reported in the journal Environmental Pollution last month, the team used the SHAP algorithm of machine learning (a game theory approach) and the Positive Matrix Factorization to pinpoint what areas in Houston had the highest impact on emissions and how certain meteorological factors play into ozone formation.

The paper was authored by Delaney Nelson, a doctoral student at the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences of UH, and Yunsoo Choi, corresponding author and professor of atmospheric chemistry, AI deep learning, air quality modeling and satellite remote sensing.

The team's research closely tracked nitrogen-based compound and volatile organic compound measurements from Texas Commission on Environmental Quality's monitoring stations in the Houston area. After importing measurements from The Lynchburg Ferry station in Houston's ship channel and the urban Milby Park station, the machine learning and SHAP analysis showed a chemically definitive difference between the two areas.

For example, at the industrial station, the most impactful sources of pollution were from oil and gas flaring/production. At the urban site n_decane and industrial emissions/evaporation had the most impact on ozone.

According to Nelson and Choi, this shows that the machine learning and SHAP analysis approach can be used to tailor more precise air quality management strategies in different areas based on the site's unique characteristics.

“Once we know the specific emission sources and factors, we can develop targeted strategies to reduce emissions, which will in turn reduce ozone in the air and make it healthier for everyone," Choi said in a statement.

“Pollution is a critical issue in Houston, where you have extreme high heat and high concentration of ozone in the summers. The types of insights we got are very useful information for the local community to develop effective policies. That’s why we put our time, effort and technological expertise into this project," he continued.

Next the team envisions applying their approach in different cities and across the country.

“Austin, San Antonio and Dallas all have different characteristics, so I expect (volatile organic compound) sources will also be different,” Choi said. “Identifying VOC sources in different cities is very important because each city should have its own unique pollution fighting strategy.”

This summer, the City of Houston released an updated report on its major strategies to combat climate change and build a more resilient future for its residents.

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Houston companies scoop up $31 million in funds from DOE, EPA methane emissions program

fresh funds

The U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced the selection of seven projects from Houston companies to receive funding through the Methane Emissions Reduction Program.

The projects are among 43 others nationwide, including 12 from Texas, that reduce, monitor, measure, and quantify methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. The DOE and EPA awarded $850 million in total through the program.

The Houston companies picked up $31.7 million in federal funding through the program in addition to more than $9.5 million in non-federal dollars.

“I’m excited about the opportunities these will create internally but even more so the creation of jobs and training opportunities for the communities in which we work,” Scott McCurdy, Encino Environmental Services CEO, said in a news release. His company received awards for two projects.

“These projects will allow us to further support and strengthen the U.S. Energy industry’s ability to deliver clean, reliable, and affordable energy globally,” he added.

The Houston-area awards included:

DaphneTech USA LLC

Total funding: $5.8 million (approximately $4.5 million in federal, $1.3 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Daphne and Williams Methane Slip Abatement Plasma-Catalyst Scale-Up project. Daphne will study how its SlipPure technology, a novel exhaust gas cleaning system that abates methane and exhaust gas pollution from natural gas-fueled engines, can be economically viable across multiple engine types and operating conditions.

Baker Hughes Energy Transition LLC 

Total funding: $7.47 million (approximately $6 million in federal, $1.5 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Advancing Low Cost CH4 Emissions Reduction from Flares through Large Scale Deployment of Retrofittable and Adaptive Technology project. The project aims to develop a scalable, integrated methane emissions reduction system for flares based on optical gas imaging and estimation algorithms.

Encino Environmental Services

Total funding: $15.17 million (approximately $11 million in federal, $4.17 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for two projects. The Advanced Methane Reduction System: Integrating Infrared and Visual Imaging to Assess Net Heating Value at the Combustion Zone and Determine Combustion Efficiency to Enhance Flaring Performance project aims to develop and deploy an advanced continuous emissions monitoring system. It’s Advancing Methane Emissions Reduction through Innovative Technology project will develop and deploy a technology using sensors and composite materials to address emissions originating in storage tanks.

Envana Software Solutions

Total funding: $5.26 million (approximately $4.2 million in federal, $1 million in non-federal)

The award was granted for the company’s Leak Detection and Reduction Software to Identify Methane Emissions and Trigger Mitigation at Oil and Gas Production Facilities Based on SCADA Data project. It aims to improve its Recon software for monitoring methane emissions and develop partnerships with local universities and organizations.

Capwell Services Inc.

Total funding: $4.19 million (approximately $3.3 million in federal, $837,000 in non-federal)

The award was granted for its Methane Emissions Abatement Technology for Low-Flow and Intermittent Emission Sources project. It aims to to deploy and field-test a methane abatement unit and improve air quality and health outcomes for communities near production facilities and establish field technician internships for local residents.

Blue Sky Measurements 

Total funding: $3.41 million (approximately $2.7 million in federal, $683,000 in non-federal)

The award was granted for its Field Validation of Novel Fixed Position Optical Sensor for Fugitive Methane Emission Detection Quantification and Location with Real-Time Notification for Rapid Mitigation project. It aims to field test an optical sensing technology at six well sites in the Permian Basin.

Southern Methodist University, The University of Texas at Austin, Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station and Hyliion Inc. were other Texas-based organizations to earn awards. See the full list of projects here.

Texas university's 'WaterHub' will dramatically reduce water usage by 40%

Sustainable Move

A major advancement in sustainability is coming to one Texas university. A new UT WaterHub at the University of Texas at Austin will be the largest facility of its kind in the U.S. and will transform how the university manages its water resources.

It's designed to work with natural processes instead of against them for water savings of an estimated 40 percent. It's slated for completion in late 2027.

The university has had an active water recovery program since the 1980s. Still, water is becoming an increasing concern in Austin. According to Texas Living Waters, a coalition of conservation groups, Texas loses enough water annually to fill Lady Bird Lake roughly 89 times over.

As Austin continues to expand and face water shortages, the region's water supply faces increased pressure. The UT WaterHub plans to address this challenge by recycling water for campus energy operations, helping preserve water resources for both the university and local communities.

The 9,600-square-foot water treatment facility will use an innovative filtration approach. To reduce reliance on expensive machinery and chemicals, the system uses plants to naturally filter water and gravity to pull it in the direction it needs to go. Used water will be gathered from a new collection point near the Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium and transported to the WaterHub, located in the heart of the engineering district. The facility's design includes a greenhouse viewable to the public, serving as an interactive learning space.

Beyond water conservation, the facility is designed to protect the university against extreme weather events like winter storms. This new initiative will create a reliable backup water supply while decreasing university water usage, and will even reduce wastewater sent to the city by up to 70 percent.

H2O Innovation, UT’s collaborator in this project, specializes in water solutions, helping organizations manage their water efficiently.

"By combining cutting-edge technology with our innovative financing approach, we’re making it easier for organizations to adopt sustainable water practices that benefit both their bottom line and the environment, paving a step forward in water positivity,” said H2O Innovation president and CEO Frédéric Dugré in a press release.

The university expects significant cost savings with this project, since it won't have to spend as much on buying water from the city or paying fees to dispose of used water. Over the next several years, this could add up to millions of dollars.

---

A version of this story originally appeared on our sister site, CultureMap Austin.

Report: Texas solar power, battery storage helped stabilize grid in summer 2024, but challenges remain

by the numbers

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that solar power and battery storage capacity helped stabilize Texas’ electric grid last summer.

Between June 1 and Aug. 31, solar power met nearly 25 percent of midday electricity demand within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid. Rising solar and battery output in ERCOT assisted Texans during a summer of triple-digit heat and record load demands, but the report fears that the state’s power load will be “pushed to its limits” soon.

The report examined how the grid performed during more demanding hours. At peak times, between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. in the summer of 2024, solar output averaged nearly 17,000 megawatts compared with 12,000 megawatts during those hours in the previous year. Between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m., discharge from battery facilities averaged 714 megawatts in 2024 after averaging 238 megawatts for those hours in 2023. Solar and battery output have continued to grow since then, according to the report.

“Batteries made a meaningful contribution to what those shoulder periods look like and how much scarcity we get into during these peak events,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said at a board of directors conference call.

Increases in capacity from solar and battery-storage power in 2024 also eclipsed those of 2023. In 2023 ECOT added 4,570 megawatts of solar, compared to adding nearly 9,700 megawatts in 2024. Growth in battery storage capacity also increased from about 1,500 megawatts added in 2023 to more than 4,000 megawatts added in 2024. Natural gas capacity also saw increases while wind capacity dropped by about 50 percent.

Texas’ installation of utility-scale solar surpassed California’s in the spring of last year, and jumped from 1,900 megawatts in 2019 to over 20,000 megawatts in 2024 with solar meeting about 50 percent of Texas' peak power demand during some days.

While the numbers are encouraging, the report states that there could be future challenges, as more generating capacity will be required due to data center construction and broader electrification trends. The development of generating more capacity will rely on multiple factors like price signals and market conditions that invite more baseload and dispatchable generating capacity, which includes longer-duration batteries, and investment in power purchase agreements and other power arrangements by large-scale consumers, according to the report.

Additionally, peak demand during winter freezes presents challenges not seen in the summer. For example, in colder months, peak electricity demand often occurs in the early morning before solar energy is available, and it predicts that current battery storage may be insufficient to meet the demand. The analysis indicated a 50% chance of rolling outages during a cold snap similar to December 2022 and an 80% chance if conditions mirror the February 2021 deep freeze at the grid’s current state.

The report also claimed that ERCOT’s energy-only market design and new incentive structures, such as the Texas Energy Fund, do not appear to be enough to meet the predicted future magnitude and speed of load growth.

Read the full report here.