U.S. LNG is essential to balancing global energy markets for the decades ahead. Photo via Getty Images

The debate over U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports is too often framed in misleading, oversimplified terms. The reality is clear: LNG is not just a temporary fix or a bridge fuel, it is a fundamental pillar of global energy security and economic stability. U.S. LNG is already reducing coal use in Asia, strengthening Europe’s energy balance, and driving economic growth at home. Turning away from LNG exports now would be a shortsighted mistake, undermining both U.S. economic interests and global energy security.

Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Baker Institute’s Center for Energy Studies, provides a fact-based assessment of the U.S. LNG exports that cuts through the noise. His analysis, consistent with McKinsey work, confirms that U.S. LNG is essential to balancing global energy markets for the decades ahead. While infrastructure challenges and environmental concerns exist, the benefits far outweigh the drawbacks. If the U.S. fails to embrace its leadership in LNG, we risk giving up our position to competitors, weakening our energy resilience, and damaging national security.

LNG Export Licenses: Options, Not Guarantees

A common but deeply flawed argument against expanding LNG exports is the assumption that granting licenses guarantees unlimited exports. This is simply incorrect. As Medlock puts it, “Licenses are options, not guarantees. Projects do not move forward if they are unable to find commercial footing.”

This is critical: government approvals do not dictate market outcomes. LNG projects must navigate economic viability, infrastructure feasibility, and global demand before becoming operational. This reality should dispel fears that expanded licensing will automatically lead to an uncontrolled surge in exports or domestic price spikes. The market, not government restrictions, should determine which projects succeed.

Canada’s Role in U.S. Gas Markets

The U.S. LNG debate often overlooks an important factor: pipeline imports from Canada. The U.S. and Canadian markets are deeply intertwined, yet critics often ignore this reality. Medlock highlights that “the importance to domestic supply-demand balance of our neighbors to the north and south cannot be overstated.”

Infrastructure Constraints and Price Volatility

One of the most counterproductive policies the U.S. could adopt is restricting LNG infrastructure development. Ironically, such restrictions would not only hinder exports but also drive up domestic energy prices. Medlock’s report explains this paradox: “Constraints that either raise development costs or limit the ability to develop infrastructure tend to make domestic supply less elastic. Ironically, this has the impact of limiting exports and raising domestic prices.”

The takeaway is straightforward: blocking infrastructure development is a self-inflicted wound. It stifles market efficiency, raises costs for American consumers, and weakens U.S. competitiveness in global energy markets. McKinsey research confirms that well-planned infrastructure investments lead to greater price stability and a more resilient energy sector. The U.S. should be accelerating, not hindering, these investments.

Short-Run vs. Long-Run Impacts on Domestic Prices

Critics of LNG exports often confuse short-term price fluctuations with long-term market trends. This is a mistake. Medlock underscores that “analysis that claims overly negative domestic price impacts due to exports tend to miss the distinction between short-run and long-run elasticity.”

Short-term price shifts are inevitable, driven by seasonal demand and supply disruptions. But long-term trends tell a different story: as infrastructure improves and production expands, markets adjust, and price impacts moderate. McKinsey analysis suggests supply elasticity increases as producers respond to price signals. Policy decisions should be grounded in this broader economic reality, not reactionary fears about temporary price movements.

Assessing the Emissions Debate

The argument that restricting U.S. LNG exports will lower global emissions is fundamentally flawed. In fact, the opposite is true. Medlock warns against “engineering scenarios that violate basic economic principles to induce particular impacts.” He emphasizes that evaluating emissions must be done holistically. “Constraining U.S. LNG exports will likely mean Asian countries will continue to turn to coal for power system balance,” a move that would significantly increase global emissions.

McKinsey’s research reinforces that, on a lifecycle basis, U.S. LNG produces fewer emissions than coal. That said, there is room for improvement, and efforts should focus on minimizing methane leakage and optimizing gas production efficiency.

However, the broader point remains: restricting LNG on environmental grounds ignores the global energy trade-offs at play. A rational approach would address emissions concerns while still recognizing the role of LNG in the global energy system.

The DOE’s Commonwealth LNG Authorization

The Department of Energy’s recent conditional approval of the Commonwealth LNG project is a step in the right direction. It signals that economic growth, energy security, and market demand remain key considerations in regulatory decisions. Medlock’s analysis makes it clear that LNG exports will be driven by market forces, and McKinsey’s projections show that global demand for flexible, reliable LNG is only increasing.

The U.S. should not limit itself with restrictive policies when the rest of the world is demanding more LNG. This is an opportunity to strengthen our position as a global energy leader, create jobs, and ensure long-term energy security.

Conclusion

The U.S. LNG debate must move beyond fear-driven narratives and focus on reality. The facts are clear: LNG exports strengthen energy security, drive economic growth, and reduce global emissions by displacing coal.

Instead of restrictive policies that limit LNG’s potential, the U.S. should focus on expanding infrastructure, maintaining market flexibility, and supporting innovation to further reduce emissions. The energy transition will be shaped by market realities, not unrealistic expectations.

The U.S. has an opportunity to lead. But leadership requires embracing economic logic, investing in infrastructure, and ensuring our policies are guided by facts, not political expediency. LNG is a critical part of the global energy landscape, and it’s time to recognize its long-term strategic value.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

NextDecade enters a deal with two major investors to move toward final investment decision for the Rio Grande LNG Project. Image via Shutterstock.

Latest collaborative agreement brings Texas LNG export facility one step closer to reality

MAKING PROGRESS

The Rio Grande LNG Project (RGLNG), an LNG export facility in Cameron County, Texas with planned capacity for exporting up to 27 million tons of LNG per year, makes a giant leap toward the final investment decision stage with the latest agreements signed by NextDecade Energy announced earlier today.

Entry to this next phase includes executing investor agreements with Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and TotalEnergies (TTE). In addition, TTE commits to purchasing 5.4 million tons of LNG annually for the next 20 years from the first three trains (RGLNG Phase 1) that will transport to the facility, with additional options to purchase from subsequent trains.

“This announcement marks a momentous milestone for NextDecade,” said Matt Schatzman, chairman and CEO of NextDecade, in the release. “We are excited to work with GIP and TotalEnergies on RGLNG and our proposed CCS project at RGLNG. We are also eager to grow our partnership with GIP and TotalEnergies focusing on our shared vision to reduce carbon emissions in the energy sector.”

“With the world increasingly moving toward sustainable solutions, this partnership among GIP, TotalEnergies and NextDecade reinforces our shared commitment to helping lead the transition and shaping of the future of energy,” added Bayo Ogunlesi, chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Global Infrastructure Partners. “This venture marks a critical step in displacing coal usage and upholds GIP’s commitment to promoting decarbonization, energy security and energy affordability. Our shared vision with TotalEnergies and NextDecade, combined with our capabilities, will undoubtedly help catalyze the development of cleaner energy.”

"We are delighted to join forces with NextDecade and GIP on the development of this new US LNG project, for which TotalEnergies shall leverage its extensive experience in LNG and technical expertise in major industrial project development," commented Patrick Pouyanné, chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies. “Our involvement in this project will enhance our LNG capacity by 5.4 MTPA strengthening our ability to ensure Europe's gas supply security and to provide Asian customers with an alternative fuel that emits half as much as coal.”

Pending execution of the FID and definitive documentation, GIP becomes the majority investor in Phase 1 of the RGLNG, and TTE will acquire another 16.67%. Both companies will also have options to invest in Trains 4 and 5 servicing the South Texas LNG export facility and options to invest in future carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) efforts planned for RGNLG.

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Houston's Rhythm Energy expands nationally with clean power acquisition

power deal

Houston-based Rhythm Energy Inc. has acquired Inspire Clean Energy for an undisclosed amount. The deal allows Rhythm to immediately scale outside of Texas and into the Northeast, Midwest and mid-Atlantic regions, according to a release from the company.

Inspire offers subscription-based renewable electricity plans to customers in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Ohio, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, and Washington, D.C. By combining forces, Rhythm will now be one of the largest independent green-energy retailers in the country.

“Adding Inspire to the Rhythm family gives us the geographic reach to serve millions of new customers with the highly rated customer experience Texans already enjoy,” PJ Popovic, CEO of Rhythm, said in the release. “Together we become one of the largest independent green-energy retailers in the country and can roll out innovations like our PowerShift Time-of-Use plan and device-enabled demand-response programs that put customers fully in control of their energy costs.”

Rhythm was founded by Popovic in 2020 and offers 100 percent renewable energy plans using solar power, wind power and other renewable power sources.

In addition to scaling geographically, the acquisition will "(marry) Rhythm's data-driven technology with Inspire's successful subscription model." Rhythm also plans to upgrade its digital tools and provide more advanced services to help lower clean energy costs, according to the release.

Popovic spoke with EnergyCapital in 2023 about where he thinks renewables fit into Texas’s energy consumption. Read more here.

Fervo Energy lands $200 million in capital for new geothermal project

fresh funding

Houston-based Fervo Energy, a producer of geothermal power, has secured $205.6 million in capital to help finance its geothermal project in southern Utah.

The money will go toward the first and second phases of Cape Station, a geothermal energy plant being developed in Beaver County, Utah. Beaver County is roughly an equal distance between Salt Lake City and Las Vegas.

The $205.6 million in capital came from three sources:

  • $100 million in equity from Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, a Kirkland, Washington-based platform that invests in emissions-reducing projects.
  • $60 million addition to Fervo’s existing loan from Mercuria, a Swiss energy and commodities trader. The revolving loan now totals $100 million.
  • $45.6 million in additional bridge debt financing from XRL-ALC, an affiliate of Irvington, New York-based X-Caliber Rural Capital. X-Caliber is a USDA-approved lender. The initial bridge loan was $100 million.

The first phase of Cape Station will supply 100 megawatts of carbon-free electricity to the power grid starting next year. Another 400 megawatts of capacity is supposed to go online by 2028. Fervo has permission to expand Cape Station’s capacity to as much as 2 gigawatts. On an annual basis, 2 gigawatts can supply enough electricity to power about 1.4 million homes.

“These investments demonstrate what we’ve known all along: Fervo’s combination of technical excellence, commercial readiness, and market opportunity makes us a natural partner for serious energy capital. The confidence our investors have in Fervo and in the Cape asset affirms that next-generation geothermal is ready to play a defining role in America’s energy future,” David Ulrey, Fervo’s CFO, said in a news release.