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Reshaping the Texas grid: The impact of EVs, AI, renewables, and extreme weather

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While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

Did you catch those images of idle generators that CenterPoint had on standby during Hurricane Beryl? With over 2 million people in the Houston area left in the dark, many were wondering, "if the generators are ready, why didn’t they get used?" It seems like power outages are becoming just as common as the severe storms themselves.

But as Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES) explains, it's not a simple fix. The outages during Hurricane Beryl were different from what we saw during Winter Storm Uri. This time, with so many poles and wires down, those generators couldn’t be put to use. It’s a reminder that each storm brings its own set of challenges, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution when it comes to keeping the lights on. While extreme weather is one of the leading threats to our electric grid, it's certainly not the only one adding strain on our power infrastructure.

The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicles (EVs) is transforming the way we live, work, and move. Beneath the surface of these technological marvels lies a challenge that could define the future of our energy infrastructure: they all depend on our electrical grid. As AI-powered data centers and a growing fleet of EVs demand more power than ever before, our grid—already under pressure from extreme weather events and an increasing reliance on renewable energy—faces a critical test. The question goes beyond whether our grid can keep up, but rather focuses on how we can ensure it evolves to support the innovations of tomorrow without compromising reliability today. The intersection of these emerging technologies with our aging energy infrastructure poses a dilemma that policymakers, industry leaders, and consumers must address.

Julie Cohn, Nonresident Fellow at the Center for Energy Studies at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, presents several key findings and recommendations to address concerns about the reliability of the Texas energy grid in her Energy Insight. She suggests there’s at least six developments unfolding that will affect the reliability of the Texas Interconnected System, operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the regional distribution networks operated by regulated utilities.

Let’s dig deeper into some of these issues:

AI

AI requires substantial computational power, particularly in data centers that house servers processing vast amounts of data. These data centers consume large amounts of electricity, putting additional strain on the grid.

According to McKinsey & Company, a single hyperscale data center can consume as much electricity as 80,000 homes combined. In 2022, data centers consumed about 200 terawatt-hours (TWh), close to 4 percent, of the total electricity used in the United States and approximately 460 TWh globally. That’s nearly the consumption of the entire State of Texas, which consumed approximately 475.4 TWh of electricity in the same year. However, this percentage is expected to increase significantly as demand for data processing and storage continues to grow. In 2026, data centers are expected to account for 6 percent, almost 260 TWh, of total electricity demand in the U.S.

EVs

According to the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, approximately 170,000 EVs have been registered across the state of Texas as of 2023, with Texas receiving $408 million in funding to expand its EV charging network. As Cohn suggests, a central question remains: Where will these emerging economic drivers for Texas, such as EVs and AI, obtain their electric power?

EVs draw power from the grid every time they’re plugged in to charge. This may come as a shock to some, but “the thing that’s recharging EV batteries in ERCOT right now, is natural gas,” says Medlock. And as McKinsey & Company explains, the impact of switching to EVs on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will largely depend on how much GHG is produced by the electricity used to charge them. This adds a layer of complexity as regulators look to decarbonize the power sector.

Depending on the charger, a single EV fast charger can pull anywhere from 50 kW to 350 kW of electricity per hour. Now, factor in the constant energy drain from data centers, our growing population using power for homes and businesses, and then account for the sudden impact of severe environmental events—which have increased in frequency and intensity—and it’s clear: Houston… we have a problem.

The Weather Wildcard

Texas is gearing up for its 2025 legislative session on January 14. The state's electricity grid once again stands at the forefront of political discussions. The question is not just whether our power will stay on during the next winter storm or scorching summer heatwave, but whether our approach to grid management is sustainable in the face of mounting challenges. The events of recent years, from Winter Storm Uri to unprecedented heatwaves, have exposed significant vulnerabilities in the Texas electricity grid, and while legislative measures have been taken, they have been largely patchwork solutions.

Winter Storm Uri in 2021 was a wake-up call, but it wasn’t the first or last extreme weather event to test the Texas grid. With deep freezes, scorching summers, and unpredictable storms becoming the norm rather than the exception, it is clear that the grid’s current state is not capable of withstanding these extremes. The measures passed in 2021 and 2023 were steps in the right direction, but they were reactive, not proactive. They focused on strengthening the grid against cold weather, yet extreme heat, a more consistent challenge in Texas, remains a less-addressed threat. The upcoming legislative session must prioritize comprehensive climate resilience strategies that go beyond cold weather prep.

“The planners for the Texas grid have important questions to address regarding anticipated weather extremes: Will there be enough energy? Will power be available when and where it is needed? Is the state prepared for extreme weather events? Are regional distribution utilities prepared for extreme weather events? Texas is not alone in facing these challenges as other states have likewise experienced extremely hot and dry summers, wildfires, polar vortexes, and other weather conditions that have tested their regional power systems,” writes Cohn.

Renewable Energy and Transmission

Texas leads the nation in wind and solar capacity (Map: Energy, Environment, and Policy in the US), however the complexity lies in getting that energy from where it’s produced to where it’s needed. Transmission lines are feeling the pressure, and the grid is struggling to keep pace with the rapid expansion of renewables. In 2005, the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) initiative showed that state intervention could significantly accelerate grid expansion. With renewables continuing to grow, the big question now is whether the state will step up again, or risk allowing progress to stall due to the inadequacy of the infrastructure in place. The legislature has a choice to make: take the lead in this energy transition or face the consequences of not keeping up with the pace of change.

Conclusion

The electrical grid continues to face serious challenges, especially as demand is expected to rise. There is hope, however, as regulators are fully aware of the strain. While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

As Cohn puts it, “In the end, successful resolution of the various issues will carry significant benefits for existing Texas industrial, commercial, and residential consumers and have implications for the longer-term economic attractiveness of Texas. Suffice it to say, eyes will be, and should be, on the Texas legislature in the coming session.”

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on September 11, 2024.

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If we want to see real change, we need action by all parties. Photo via Getty Images

Texas vs the nation: Comparing energy grid resilience across America

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The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has proven disastrous for the United States. On July 8th, Hurricane Beryl barreled into Texas as a Category 1 storm knocking out power for nearly 3 million, causing over $2.5 billion in damages, and resulting in the deaths of at least 42 people.

More recently, Hurricanes Helene and Milton tore through the East Coast, dropping trillions of gallons of rain on Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee, causing dams to collapse, flash flooding, trees to fall, millions of power outages, complete destruction of homes and businesses, and the deaths of hundreds.

Amidst the horror and rescue efforts, wariness of the increasing strength of natural disasters, and repeated failures of energy grids around the nation begs a few questions.

  1. Is there a version of a power grid that can better endure hurricanes, heat waves, and freezes?
  2. How does the Texas grid compare to other regional grids in the United States?
  3. What can we do to solve our power grid problems and who is responsible for implementing these solutions?

Hurricane-proof grids do not exist

There is no version of a grid anywhere in the United States that can withstand the brunt of a massive hurricane without experiencing outages.

The wind, rain, and flooding are simply too much to handle.

Some might wonder, “What if we buried the power lines?” Surely, removing the power lines from the harsh winds, rain, flying debris, and falling tree branches would be enough to keep the lights on, right?

Well, not necessarily. Putting aside the fact that burying power lines is incredibly expensive – estimates range from thousands to millions of dollars per mile buried – extended exposure to water from flood surges can still cause damage to buried lines. To pile on further, flood surges are likely to seriously damage substations and transformers. When those components fail, there’s no power to run through the lines, buried or otherwise.

Heat waves and winter freezes are a different story

During extreme weather events like heat waves or winter freezes, the strain on the grid goes beyond simple issues of generation and distribution—it’s also a matter of human behavior and grid limitations.

Building and maintaining a power grid is extremely expensive, and storing electricity is not only costly but technically challenging. Most grids are designed with little "buffer" capacity to handle peak demand moments, because much of the infrastructure sits idle during normal conditions. Imagine investing billions of dollars in a power plant or wind farm that only operates at full capacity a fraction of the time. It’s difficult to recoup that investment.

When extreme weather hits, demand spikes significantly while supply remains relatively static, pushing the grid to its limits. This imbalance makes it hard to keep up with the surge in energy usage.

At the same time, our relationship with electricity has changed—our need for electricity has only increased. We’ve developed habits—like setting thermostats to 70 degrees or lower during summer heat waves or keeping homes balmy in winter— that, while comfortable, place additional strain on the system.

Behavioral changes, alongside investments in infrastructure, are crucial to ensuring we avoid blackouts as energy demand continues to rise in the coming years.

How the Texas grid compares to other regional grids

Is the Texas grid really in worse shape compared to other regional grids around the U.S.?

In some ways, Texas is lagging and in others, Texas is a leader.

One thing you might have heard about the Texas grid is that it is isolated, which restricts the ability to import power from neighboring regions during emergencies. Unfortunately, connecting the Texas grid further would not be a one-size fits all solution for fixing its problems. The neighboring grids would need to have excess supply at the exact moment of need and have the capacity to transmit that power to the right areas of need. Situations often arise where the Texas grid needs more power, but New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana have none to spare because they are experiencing similar issues with supply and demand at the same time. Furthermore, even if our neighbors have some power to share, the infrastructure may not be sufficient to deliver the power where it’s needed within the state.

On the other hand, Texas is leading the nation in terms of renewable development. The Lone Star State is #1 in wind power and #2 in solar power, only behind California. There are, of course, valid concerns about heavy reliance on renewables when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, compounded by a lack of large-scale battery storage. Then, there’s the underlying cost and ecological footprint associated with the manufacturing of those batteries.

Yet, the only state with more utility-scale storage than Texas is California.

In recent years, ERCOT has pushed generators and utility companies to increase their winterization efforts, incentivize the buildout of renewables and electricity storage. You might have also heard about the Texas Electricity Fund, which represents the state’s latest effort to further incentivize grid stability. Improvements are underway, but they may not be enough if homeowners and renters across the state are unwilling to set their thermostats a bit higher during extended heatwaves.

How can we fix the Texas grid?

Here’s the reality we must face – a disaster-proof, on-demand, renewable-powered grid is extremely expensive and cannot be implemented quickly. We must come to terms with the fact that the impact of natural disasters is unavoidable, no matter how much we “upgrade” the infrastructure.

Ironically, the most impactful solution out there is free and requires only a few seconds to implement. Simple changes to human behavior are the strongest tool we have at our disposal to prevent blackouts in Texas. By decreasing our collective demand for electricity at the right times, we can all help keep the lights on and prices low.

During peak hours, the cumulative effort is as simple as turning off the lights, turning the thermostat up a few degrees, and running appliances like dishwashers and laundry machines overnight.

Another important element we cannot avoid addressing is global warming. As the temperatures on the surface of the earth increase, the weather changes, and, in many cases, it makes it more volatile.

The more fossil fuels we burn, the more greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere. More greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to more volatile weather. Volatile weather, in turn, contributes to extreme grid strain in the form of heat waves, winter freezes, and hurricanes. This is no simple matter to solve, because the energy needs and capabilities of different countries differ. That is why some countries around the globe continue to expand their investments in coal as an energy source, the fossil fuel that burns the dirtiest and releases the most greenhouse gases per unit.

While governments and private organizations continue to advance carbon capture, renewable, and energy storage technology efficiency, the individual could aid these efforts by changing our behavior. There are many impactful things we can do to reduce our carbon footprint, like adjusting our thermostat a few degrees, eating less red meat, driving cars less often, and purchasing fewer single-use plastics to name a few.

If we want to see real change, we need action by all parties. The complex system of generation, transmission, and consumption all need to experience radical change, or the vicious cycle will only continue.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

If finalized, the measure would protect an estimated 36 million U.S. workers from injuries related to heat exposure on the job — establishing the first major federal safety standard of its kind. Photo via Getty Images

New rule to protect 36 million workers from extreme heat in Texas, beyond

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday proposed a new rule to address excessive heat in the workplace, warning — as tens of millions of people in the U.S. are under heat advisories — that high temperatures are the country's leading weather-related killer.

If finalized, the measure would protect an estimated 36 million U.S. workers from injuries related to heat exposure on the job — establishing the first major federal safety standard of its kind. Those affected by excessive heat in the workplace include farmworkers, delivery and construction workers, landscapers, and indoor workers in warehouses, factories, and kitchens.

Biden highlighted the proposed rule as one of five steps his Democratic administration is taking to address extreme weather as Hurricane Beryl is already ripping through the Caribbean in an ominous sign for the summer.

Biden used his remarks at the D.C. Emergency Operations Center to blast those Republican lawmakers who deny the existence of climate change, saying, “It's not only outrageous, it's really stupid.” Biden noted that there are human and financial costs from climate change, saying that weather-inflicted damage last year cost the economy $90 billion.

“More people die from extreme heat than floods, hurricanes and tornadoes combined,” Biden said. “These climate fueled extreme weather events don’t just affect people’s lives. They also cost money. They hurt the economy, and they have a significant negative psychological effect on people.”

The Democratic president, who's seeking reelection in part on his environmental record, said that the Federal Emergency Management Agency was also finalizing a rule to factor in possible flooding risks for federal construction projects.

In addition, FEMA was announcing $1 billion in grants to help communities deal with natural disasters, while the Environmental Protection Agency was releasing a new report on climate change's impacts. Lastly, Biden said his administration would hold a conference titled “White House Summit on Extreme Heat” in the coming months.

Despite increased awareness of the risks posed to human health by high temperatures, extreme heat protections — for those routinely exposed to heat index readings above 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) — have lagged.

“The purpose of this rule is simple,” a senior White House administration official told reporters. “It is to significantly reduce the number of worker-related deaths, injuries, and illnesses suffered by workers who are exposed to excessive heat ... while simply doing their jobs.”

Under the proposed rule, employers would be required to identify heat hazards, develop emergency response plans related to heat illness, and provide training to employees and supervisors on the signs and symptoms of such illnesses. They would also have to establish rest breaks, provide shade and water, and heat acclimatization — or the building of tolerance to higher temperatures — for new workers.

Penalties for heat-related violations in workplaces would increase significantly, in line with what workplaces are issued for violations of Occupational Safety and Health Administration rules, a senior White House administration official said.

An estimated 2,300 people in the U.S. died from heat-related illness in 2023. From 1992 to 2022, a total of 986 workers across all industry sectors in the U.S. died from exposure to heat, with construction accounting for about 34% of all occupational heat-related deaths, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. During that time, 334 construction workers died due to heat exposure on the job.

As the hottest month of the year gets underway, millions of Americans will be at greater risk of heat strokes, dangerous dehydration and heat-related heart stress.

The Labor Department has been developing a standard for how workplaces deal with heat since 2021. Last year, OSHA held meetings to hear about how the proposed measures could affect small businesses.

The AFL-CIO union federation praised the measure. “If finalized, this new rule would address some of the most basic needs for workers’ health and safety,” said AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler.

Heat protection laws in the U.S. have faced steady industry opposition, including from chambers of commerce and other business associations. Many say a blanket mandate would be difficult to implement across such a wide range of industries.

California, Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota and Washington are the only states with workplace standards for heat exposure. Over the past year, Florida and Texas, led by Gov. Ron DeSantis and Gov. Greg Abbott, both Republicans, passed legislation preventing local governments from requiring heat protections for outdoor workers.

If finalized, the Biden administration's rule would override state standards, and states with existing procedures to deal with heat would have to institute measures at least as stringent as the finalized federal rule.

The OSHA plan was announced as the EPA released a new report on climate change indicators in the U.S. The report, last updated in 2016, highlights data showing the continuing and far-reaching impacts of climate change in the U.S. This year’s report adds heat-related workplace deaths and marine heat waves as climate change indicators.

The report lists 57 indicators related to either the causes or effects of climate change.

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Houston researchers make breakthrough on electricity-generating bacteria

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New research from Rice University that merges biology with electrochemistry has uncovered new findings on how some bacteria generate electricity.

Led by Caroline Ajo-Franklin, a Rice professor of biosciences and the director of the Rice Synthetic Biology Institute, the team published its findings in the journal Cell in April. The report showed how some bacteria use compounds called naphthoquinones, rather than oxygen, to transfer electrons to external surfaces in a process known as extracellular respiration. In other words, the bacteria are exhale electricity as they breathe.

This process has been observed by scientists for years, but the Rice team's deeper understanding of its mechanism is a major breakthrough, with implications for the clean energy and industrial biotechnology sectors, according to the university.

“Our research not only solves a long-standing scientific mystery, but it also points to a new and potentially widespread survival strategy in nature,” Ajo-Franklin, said in a news release.

The Rice team worked with the University of California, San Diego's Palsson lab to simulate bacterial growth using advanced computer modeling. The simulations modeled oxygen-deprived environments that were rich in conductive surfaces, and found that bacteria could sustain themselves without oxygen. Next, they confirmed that the bacteria continued to grow and generate electricity when placed on conductive materials.

The team reports that the findings "lay the groundwork for future technologies that harness the unique capabilities" of these bacteria with "far-reaching practical implications." The team says the findings could lead to significant improvements in wastewater treatment and biomanufacturing. They could also allow for better bioelectronic sensors in oxygen-deprived environments, including deep-sea vents, the human gut and in deep space.

“Our work lays the foundation for harnessing carbon dioxide through renewable electricity, where bacteria function similarly to plants with sunlight in photosynthesis,” Ajo-Franklin added in the release. “It opens the door to building smarter, more sustainable technologies with biology at the core.”

Is the Texas power grid prepared for summer 2025 heat?

Guest Column

Although the first official day of summer is not until June 20, Houstonians are already feeling the heat with record-breaking, triple-digit temperatures. The recent heatwave has many Texans wondering if the state’s grid will have enough power to meet peak demand during the summer.

How the Texas grid fared in summer 2024

To predict what could happen as we enter summer this year, it is essential to assess the state of the grid during summer 2024, and what, if anything, has been improved.

According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within the ERCOT power grid set records in summer 2024. On average, solar contributed nearly 25 percent of total power needs during mid-day hours between June 1 and August 31. In critical evening hours, when load (demand for electricity) remains elevated but solar output declines, discharge from batteries successfully filled the gap.

Texas added more battery storage capacity than any other state last year, and, excluding California, now has more battery capacity than the rest of the country combined. The state also added 3,410 megawatts of natural gas-fueled power last year. While we did experience major power losses as a result of extreme weather, such as the derecho in May and Hurricane Beryl in July, ERCOT did not have to issue a single conservation appeal last summer to ward off capacity-related outages--and it was the sixth-hottest summer on record.

Policymakers are also taking steps to pass legislation that will help stabilize the grid. During this year’s 89th legislative session, Senate Bill 6 (TX SB6) was introduced, which seeks to:

  • Improve ERCOT's load forecasting transparency
  • Enhance outage protections for residential consumers
  • Adjust transmission cost allocations
  • Bolster grid reliability

In essence, the bill is meant to balance business growth with grid reliability, ensuring that the state continues to be an attractive destination for industrial expansion while preventing reliability risks due to rapid demand increases.

Is the Texas grid prepared for summer 2025?

The good news is that the grid is predicted to be able to manage the energy demand this summer, but there is no guarantee that power disruptions will not happen.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has indicated that summer 2025 will likely be warmer and drier than average across most of Texas. Based on ERCOT data and weather projections, West Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metropolitan areas face the highest risk of outages.

While Texas is No. 1 in wind power and No. 2 in solar power, only behind California, there are valid concerns about heavy reliance on renewables when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, compounded by a lack of large-scale battery storage. Then, there’s the underlying cost and ecological footprint associated with the manufacturing of those batteries. Although solar and wind capacity continues to expand rapidly, integration challenges remain during peak demand periods, especially during the late afternoon when solar generation declines but air conditioning usage remains high.

Additional factors that contribute to the grid’s instability are that Texas faces a massive surge in demand for electricity due to an increase in large users like crypto mining facilities and data centers, as well as population growth. ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026.

Thanks to investments in solar power, battery storage, and traditional energy sources, ERCOT has made progress in improving grid reliability which indicates that, at least for this summer, energy load will be manageable. A combination of legislative action, strategic planning and technological innovation will need to continue to ensure that this momentum remains on a positive trajectory.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

Ultra-fast EV charging bays coming to Waffle House locations in Texas and beyond

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Scattered, smothered and ... charged?

Starting next year, EV drivers can connect to ultra-fast charging stations at select Waffle House locations throughout Texas, courtesy of bp pulse.

The EV arm of British energy giant bp announced a strategic partnership with the all-day breakfast chain this week. The company aims to deploy a network of 400kW DC fast chargers and a mix of CCS and NACS connectors at Waffle House locations in Texas, Georgia, Florida, and other restaurants in the South.

Each Waffle House site will feature six ultra-fast EV charging bays, allowing drivers to "(enjoy) Waffle House’s 24/7 amenities," the announcement reads.

“Adding an iconic landmark like Waffle House to our growing portfolio of EV charging sites is such an exciting opportunity. As an integrated energy company, bp is committed to providing efficient solutions like ultra-fast charging to support our customers’ mobility needs," Sujay Sharma, CEO of bp pulse U.S., said in a news release. "We’re building a robust network of ultra-fast chargers across the country, and this is another example of third-party collaborations enabling access to charging co-located with convenient amenities for EV drivers.”

The news comes as bp pulse continues to grow its charging network in Texas.

The company debuted its new high-speed electric vehicle charging site, known as the Gigahub, at the bp America headquarters in Houston last year. In partnership with Hertz Electrifies Houston, it also previously announced plans to install a new EV fast-charging hub at Hobby Airport. In a recent partnership with Simon Malls, bp also shared plans to install EV charging Gigahubs at The Galleria and Katy Mills Mall.

bp has previously reported that it plans to invest $1 billion in EV charging infrastructure by 2030, with $500 million invested in by the end of 2025.

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