Scotty Nyquist discuss the growth in AI data centers and the strain on the system. Photo via HARC report

For most of the past 20 years, U.S. electricity policy relied on predictable trends in demand. Electricity use, in most regions, increased gradually, forecasts were stable, and utilities adjusted the system in small steps. Power plants, transmission lines, and substations were generally added to reflect shifts in load, rather than growth, and costs were recovered through modest adjustments to customer bills.

Growth in AI data centers has disrupted this model. A single facility can add as much electricity demand as a small town. That demand comes all at once, runs continuously, and has little tolerance for outages. If electricity service drops even briefly, computation stops, and services shut down. Ironically, data centers need reliable service, a point that their emergence is driving concern around for the rest of the grid.

What the numbers say

The International Energy Agency projects global electricity consumption from data centers to double by 2030, reaching roughly 945 TWh, nearly 3 percent of global electricity demand, with consumption growing about 15 percent per year this decade. McKinsey projects that U.S. data center demand alone could grow 20–25 percent per year, with global capacity demand more than tripling by 2030.

After years of roughly 0.5 percent annual demand growth, many forecasts now place total U.S. electricity demand growth closer to 2–3 percent per year through the mid-2030s, with much higher growth in specific regions. In Texas, some forecasters are saying electricity demand could double over the next five years, a staggering 10 percent per year growth rate. What sounds incremental on paper translates into a major challenge on the ground. Meeting this pace of growth is estimated to require $250–$300 billion per year in grid investment, about double what the system has been absorbing.

Where the system starts to strain

The strain appears first in the interconnection queue. It shows up as long waits, backlogs, and delays for connecting new loads and new generation.

Before new generators or large load customers can be connected, a study is required to assess their impact on the grid, whether it can physically handle the added load, and whether upgrades are required. With AI-driven data centers, utilities face far more connection requests than they can realistically support. In ERCOT, large-load interconnection requests exceed 200 gigawatts, most tied to data centers. That amount exceeds historical norms, and it is several times larger than what can be practically studied or built in the near term.

To be clear, public utility commissions are required to study these requests because they must manage system capabilities to ensure minimal disruption. This means engineers spend time evaluating projects that may never be built, while other more commercially viable projects may wait longer for approvals. This extends timelines and makes infrastructure planning less reliable.

Why policymakers are rethinking the rules

Utilities and their regulators must decide how much generation, transmission, and substation capacity to build years before it comes online. Those decisions are based on expected demand at the time projects are approved. When it comes to data centers, by the time infrastructure is completed, they may end up deploying newer, more efficient chips that use less power than originally assumed. This can result in grid infrastructure built for a higher load than what actually materializes, leaving excess capacity that still must be paid for through system-wide rates.

That’s the central dilemma. If utilities build too little capacity, the system operates with less reserve margin. During periods of grid stress, operators have fewer options, increasing the likelihood of curtailments or outages. However, if utilities build too much, customers may be asked to pay for infrastructure that is not fully used.

In response, policymakers are adjusting the rules. In some regions, regulators are moving toward bring-your-own-power approaches that require large data centers to supply or fund part of the capacity needed to serve them or reduce demand during system stress. At the federal level, permitting reforms tied to datacenter infrastructure increasingly treat electricity as a strategic economic input.

As Ken Medlock, senior director at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES), explains:

“Many of the planned data centers are now also adding behind-the-meter options to their development plans because they do not anticipate being able to manage their needs solely from the grid, and they certainly cannot do so with only intermittent power sources.”

Behind-the-meter (BTM) refers to power that a consumer controls on its side of the utility meter, such as on-site gas generation or a dedicated power plant. These resources allow data centers to keep operating during grid-related service. Most facilities remain connected to the grid, but the backup BTM generation serves as insurance for operating their core business.

This shifts responsibility. Utilities traditionally manage reliability across all customers by maintaining an operating reserve margin, or spare capacity. Increasingly, large-load customers manage part of their own electricity reliability needs, which changes how infrastructure is planned and how risk is distributed.

Bottom line

AI-driven load growth is arriving faster and in more concentrated places than the power system was built to accommodate. Utilities and regulators are being forced to make decisions sooner than planned about where to build, how fast to build, and which customers get priority when capacity is limited. The effects extend beyond data centers, showing up in system costs, reliability margins, competition for grid access, and pressure on communities and industries that depend on affordable and dependable power. The issue is not whether electricity can be generated, but how the costs and risks of rapid demand growth are distributed as the system tries to keep up. How regulators balance these decisions will determine who pays as AI demand outruns the power grid.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

Energy hungry data centers are increasing electric costs. Getty Images

As electric bills rise, evidence mounts that data centers share blame

Data Talk

Amid rising electric bills, states are under pressure to insulate regular household and business ratepayers from the costs of feeding Big Tech's energy-hungry data centers.

It's not clear that any state has a solution and the actual effect of data centers on electricity bills is difficult to pin down. Some critics question whether states have the spine to take a hard line against tech behemoths like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta.

But more than a dozen states have begun taking steps as data centers drive a rapid build-out of power plants and transmission lines.

That has meant pressuring the nation's biggest power grid operator to clamp down on price increases, studying the effect of data centers on electricity bills or pushing data center owners to pay a larger share of local transmission costs.

Rising power bills are “something legislators have been hearing a lot about. It’s something we’ve been hearing a lot about. More people are speaking out at the public utility commission in the past year than I’ve ever seen before,” said Charlotte Shuff of the Oregon Citizens’ Utility Board, a consumer advocacy group. “There’s a massive outcry.”

Not the typical electric customer

Some data centers could require more electricity than cities the size of Pittsburgh, Cleveland or New Orleans, and make huge factories look tiny by comparison. That's pushing policymakers to rethink a system that, historically, has spread transmission costs among classes of consumers that are proportional to electricity use.

“A lot of this infrastructure, billions of dollars of it, is being built just for a few customers and a few facilities and these happen to be the wealthiest companies in the world,” said Ari Peskoe, who directs the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard University. “I think some of the fundamental assumptions behind all this just kind of breaks down.”

A fix, Peskoe said, is a “can of worms" that pits ratepayer classes against one another.

Some officials downplay the role of data centers in pushing up electric bills.

Tricia Pridemore, who sits on Georgia’s Public Service Commission and is president of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, pointed to an already tightened electricity supply and increasing costs for power lines, utility poles, transformers and generators as utilities replace aging equipment or harden it against extreme weather.

The data centers needed to accommodate the artificial intelligence boom are still in the regulatory planning stages, Pridemore said, and the Data Center Coalition, which represents Big Tech firms and data center developers, has said its members are committed to paying their fair share.

But growing evidence suggests that the electricity bills of some Americans are rising to subsidize the massive energy needs of Big Tech as the U.S. competes in a race against China for artificial intelligence superiority.

Data and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie published a report in recent weeks that suggested 20 proposed or effective specialized rates for data centers in 16 states it studied aren’t nearly enough to cover the cost of a new natural gas power plant.

In other words, unless utilities negotiate higher specialized rates, other ratepayer classes — residential, commercial and industrial — are likely paying for data center power needs.

Meanwhile, Monitoring Analytics, the independent market watchdog for the mid-Atlantic grid, produced research in June showing that 70% — or $9.3 billion — of last year's increased electricity cost was the result of data center demand.

States are responding

Last year, five governors led by Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro began pushing back against power prices set by the mid-Atlantic grid operator, PJM Interconnection, after that amount spiked nearly sevenfold. They warned of customers “paying billions more than is necessary.”

PJM has yet to propose ways to guarantee that data centers pay their freight, but Monitoring Analytics is floating the idea that data centers should be required to procure their own power.

In a filing last month, it said that would avoid a "massive wealth transfer” from average people to tech companies.

At least a dozen states are eyeing ways to make data centers pay higher local transmission costs.

In Oregon, a data center hot spot, lawmakers passed legislation in June ordering state utility regulators to develop new — presumably higher — power rates for data centers.

The Oregon Citizens’ Utility Board says there is clear evidence that costs to serve data centers are being spread across all customers — at a time when some electric bills there are up 50% over the past four years and utilities are disconnecting more people than ever.

New Jersey’s governor signed legislation last month commissioning state utility regulators to study whether ratepayers are being hit with “unreasonable rate increases” to connect data centers and to develop a specialized rate to charge data centers.

In some other states, like Texas and Utah, governors and lawmakers are trying to avoid a supply-and-demand crisis that leaves ratepayers on the hook — or in the dark.

Doubts about states protecting ratepayers

In Indiana, state utility regulators approved a settlement between Indiana Michigan Power Co., Amazon, Google, Microsoft and consumer advocates that set parameters for data center payments for service.

Kerwin Olsen, of the Citizens Action Council of Indiana, a consumer advocacy group, signed the settlement and called it a “pretty good deal” that contained more consumer protections than what state lawmakers passed.

But, he said, state law doesn't force large power users like data centers to publicly reveal their electric usage, so pinning down whether they're paying their fair share of transmission costs "will be a challenge.”

In a March report, the Environmental and Energy Law Program at Harvard University questioned the motivation of utilities and regulators to shield ratepayers from footing the cost of electricity for data centers.

Both utilities and states have incentives to attract big customers like data centers, it said.

To do it, utilities — which must get their rates approved by regulators — can offer “special deals to favored customers” like a data center and effectively shift the costs of those discounts to regular ratepayers, the authors wrote. Many state laws can shield disclosure of those rates, they said.

In Pennsylvania, an emerging data center hot spot, the state utility commission is drafting a model rate structure for utilities to consider adopting. An overarching goal is to get data center developers to put their money where their mouth is.

“We’re talking about real transmission upgrades, potentially hundreds of millions of dollars,” commission chairman Stephen DeFrank said. “And that’s what you don’t want the ratepayer to get stuck paying for."

The fresh funding will go toward advancing the company's Xeus HTS wire technology. Photo via metoxtech.com

Houston superconductor tech manufacturer raises $25M

money moves

A Houston company has closed its series B extension at $25 million.

MetOx International, which develops and manufactures high-temperature superconducting (HTS) wire, announced it closed a $25 million series B extension. Centaurus Capital, an energy-focused family office, and New System Ventures, a climate and energy transition-focused venture firm, led the round with participation from other investors.

"MetOx has developed a robust and highly scalable operation, and we are thrilled to partner with the Company as it enters this pivotal growth stage," says John Arnold, founder of Centaurus, in a news release. "The market for HTS is expanding at an unprecedented pace, with demand for HTS far outweighing supply. MetOx is poised to be the leading U.S. HTS producer, closing the supply gap and bringing dramatic capacity to high power innovations and applications. Their progress and potential are unmatched in the field, and we are proud to support their growth."

The fresh funding will go toward advancing the company's Xeus HTS wire technology for key energy transition applications by expanding MetOx's U.S.-based manufacturing capabilities to meet demand.

"This funding marks a pivotal step in our mission to revolutionize the energy and technology sectors with our advanced power delivery technology and accelerate delivery for our customers and partners. HTS is critical to enhancing the efficiency of our electric grid and enabling technological developments that, in many cases, would not be viable or even possible without superconductor technology," adds Bud Vos, CEO of MetOx. "Support from investors such as Centaurus and NSV not only provides the financial resources and strategic support required for accelerated scaleup, but also validates the broad reach of our technology across energy, data center, medical, and defense industries."

HTS wire technology is critical for the energy transition, especially amid rising data center growth, and for next generation wind turbines and interconnections.

MetOx's technology originated out of the University of Houston and was founded in 1998 by Alex Ignatiev, UH professor emeritus of physics and a fellow of the National Academy of Inventors. Last year, the company secured $3 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy to support the advancement of its proprietary manufacturing technology for its HTS wire.

"MetOx's HTS technology aligns with our systems-level research and offers a unique opportunity to dramatically accelerate the energy transition," says Ian Samuels, founder and managing partner at NSV. "MetOx's Xeus wire stands to be a force multiplier in clean energy generation and high-power transmission and distribution, enabling load growth and the deployment of power-dense data centers. NSV is excited to support MetOx as it scales domestic manufacturing capacity."

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

ViVa Center — located at the old Compaq headquarters — received $40 million in C-PACE financing to revitalize its facility. Rendering courtesy of ViVa Center

Houston tech hub secures $40M to meet rising data center needs

fresh funding

A technology hub in Houston has fresh funding to drive tech advancement and data center growth.

Texas’ Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy (C-PACE) program Lone Star PACE has arranged $40 million in C-PACE financing for the revitalization of ViVa Center in Houston to help support the development of data centers that revolve around the growth of AI.

“At ViVa Center, our commitment to technological innovation and forward-thinking design drives the integration of state-of-the-art building systems,” Freddy Vaca, president of VivaVerse Solutions said in a news release.

The facility is a turnkey data center that caters to hyper-scale users in cloud computing and AI.

VivaVerse Solutions’ ViVa Center is a 2.3-million-square-foot technology hub that was once Compaq headquarters, and also once owned by Hewlett-Packard Enterprise. The ViVa Center will offer 250 megawatts of power, a dedicated chilled water plant and a natural gas pipeline for energy generation with the new development. In addition, improvements will include LED lighting, advanced HVAC systems, energy-efficient windows, and high-efficiency plumbing upgrades.

“We are thrilled to have partnered with VivaVerse Solutions on this much-needed project,” Lee McCormick, president of Lone Star PACE said in a news release. “Demand for data center infrastructure has exploded amid a rise in data consumption and technological innovation, and it’s exciting to see C-PACE play a role in meeting that need.”

C-PACE gives access to property owners to long-term financing for energy and water conservation systems at commercial buildings at lower costs. The property owners can use C-PACE to finance building retrofits, recapitalizations , or new construction. Nuveen Green Capital served as a capital provider for the project. The project involves retrofitting an existing building with Phase 1 being scheduled for completion this fall.

“We are proud to expand our partnership with Lone Star PACE by providing $40 million in C-PACE capital to VivaVerse Solutions for the deep retrofit of their data center,” Sean Ribble, senior director of originations at Nuveen Green Capital, said in a news release. “ In a capital-constrained market, more owners and developers are recognizing the value of C-PACE as a flexible, cost-efficient financing solution for commercial real estate projects of all asset classes. We look forward to supporting many more C-PACE deals across Texas as the platform continues its expansion as a more mainstream financing option.”

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

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Fervo promotes strategy leader to COO as flagship geothermal project nears launch

new leader

Houston geothermal unicorn Fervo Energy has named Sarah Jewett as its new COO.

Jewett steps into the role as the company prepares for its flagship Cape Station geothermal project to deliver its first power later this year.

Jewett joined Fervo in 2020 as director of strategy and most recently served as the company's senior vice president of strategy. She spoke with HETI on the potential of geothermal energy in 2024.

Before Fervo, Jewett served as senior director of corporate development for Houston-based Select Energy Services. She ran hydraulic fracturing crews for Schlumberger in the Permian Basin and Alaska's North Slope early in her career.

In the COO role, Jewett is tasked with creating "the centralized infrastructure required to execute on what the company believes is the most significant commercial opportunity for clean, firm power in history," according to a company release.

“What Sarah has built over the last six years has been foundational to the company’s success. From the time she joined, she has brought an unwavering people-first mindset and outstanding dedication to building things that last,” Tim Latimer, CEO and co-founder of Fervo, added in the release. “As we move into the next phase of our growth, there is no better person to lead the operating core of this company.”

Jewett holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from Dartmouth College.

Fervo announced the addition of four heavyweights to its board of directors this spring, including Meg Whitman, former CEO of eBay, Hewlett-Packard, and Spring-based HPE. Shortly after, the company filed for its highly anticipated $1 billion-plus IPO. Read more here.

UH study finds Gulf Coast best positioned for emerging carbon removal technology

coastal impact

The Gulf Coast is an ideal spot for deploying a new ocean-based carbon removal technology that uses seawater to capture and store carbon dioxide, according to a new study from the University of Houston.

The study was led by UH Cullen College of Engineering Professor Mim Rahimi and published in Nature’s Communications Sustainability journal. Abdelrahman Refaie, a PhD student at UH, authored the paper. It aimed to develop a plan for implementing an electrochemical marine carbon dioxide removal (e-mCDR) technology that treats seawater to increase the ocean’s ability to absorb and store carbon dioxide from the air.

Currently, oceans absorb about 30 percent of human-produced carbon dioxide emissions each year, according to UH, making it a great natural resource for carbon removal.

The team at UH scouted and analyzed 38 coastal facilities across the U.S.—including power plants, desalination plants, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals—before determining the Gulf Coast as an attractive option. The South Hub, or the Gulf Coast along Texas and Louisiana, ranked the top-performing area for the technology due to the industrial infrastructure, affordable electricity, hydrogen transportation and storage networks.

Other regions like California and the Northeast also scored well due to their clean energy mix and carbon removal potential, according to UH.

“The South hub has one of the highest diversity factors between power plants, desalination and LNG,” Refaie said in a news release. “That means if, logistically, down the road LNG is not open for this implementation, then we have another option in the area. It reduces the risk factor.”

UH says the findings show how companies could commercialize the technology, which could boost coastal economies.

“The question we had wasn’t technical, rather, it was logistical in regard to implementation down the road,” Rahimi said. “This would be a roadmap if a company or the government wants to utilize this technology.”

Rahimi aims to increase awareness about e-mCDR technology and its potential impact. He recently discussed the ocean-centric carbon removal work with members of Congress in March at the Carbon to Sea’s 2026 Hill Day.

“I think faculty at the University of Houston can do more of this kind of work,” Rahimi said in a separate release. “Meeting with Members of Congress gives us a chance to help policymakers better understand the science and engineering happening at our university. That kind of engagement is an important part of moving new technologies forward. It also shows how the work we do on campus can have a real impact on communities beyond the university.”