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Houston energy expert asks: Who pays when AI outruns the power grid?

Guets Column

Scotty Nyquist discuss the growth in AI data centers and the strain on the system. Photo via HARC report

For most of the past 20 years, U.S. electricity policy relied on predictable trends in demand. Electricity use, in most regions, increased gradually, forecasts were stable, and utilities adjusted the system in small steps. Power plants, transmission lines, and substations were generally added to reflect shifts in load, rather than growth, and costs were recovered through modest adjustments to customer bills.

Growth in AI data centers has disrupted this model. A single facility can add as much electricity demand as a small town. That demand comes all at once, runs continuously, and has little tolerance for outages. If electricity service drops even briefly, computation stops, and services shut down. Ironically, data centers need reliable service, a point that their emergence is driving concern around for the rest of the grid.

What the numbers say

The International Energy Agency projects global electricity consumption from data centers to double by 2030, reaching roughly 945 TWh, nearly 3 percent of global electricity demand, with consumption growing about 15 percent per year this decade. McKinsey projects that U.S. data center demand alone could grow 20–25 percent per year, with global capacity demand more than tripling by 2030.

After years of roughly 0.5 percent annual demand growth, many forecasts now place total U.S. electricity demand growth closer to 2–3 percent per year through the mid-2030s, with much higher growth in specific regions. In Texas, some forecasters are saying electricity demand could double over the next five years, a staggering 10 percent per year growth rate. What sounds incremental on paper translates into a major challenge on the ground. Meeting this pace of growth is estimated to require $250–$300 billion per year in grid investment, about double what the system has been absorbing.

Where the system starts to strain

The strain appears first in the interconnection queue. It shows up as long waits, backlogs, and delays for connecting new loads and new generation.

Before new generators or large load customers can be connected, a study is required to assess their impact on the grid, whether it can physically handle the added load, and whether upgrades are required. With AI-driven data centers, utilities face far more connection requests than they can realistically support. In ERCOT, large-load interconnection requests exceed 200 gigawatts, most tied to data centers. That amount exceeds historical norms, and it is several times larger than what can be practically studied or built in the near term.

To be clear, public utility commissions are required to study these requests because they must manage system capabilities to ensure minimal disruption. This means engineers spend time evaluating projects that may never be built, while other more commercially viable projects may wait longer for approvals. This extends timelines and makes infrastructure planning less reliable.

Why policymakers are rethinking the rules

Utilities and their regulators must decide how much generation, transmission, and substation capacity to build years before it comes online. Those decisions are based on expected demand at the time projects are approved. When it comes to data centers, by the time infrastructure is completed, they may end up deploying newer, more efficient chips that use less power than originally assumed. This can result in grid infrastructure built for a higher load than what actually materializes, leaving excess capacity that still must be paid for through system-wide rates.

That’s the central dilemma. If utilities build too little capacity, the system operates with less reserve margin. During periods of grid stress, operators have fewer options, increasing the likelihood of curtailments or outages. However, if utilities build too much, customers may be asked to pay for infrastructure that is not fully used.

In response, policymakers are adjusting the rules. In some regions, regulators are moving toward bring-your-own-power approaches that require large data centers to supply or fund part of the capacity needed to serve them or reduce demand during system stress. At the federal level, permitting reforms tied to datacenter infrastructure increasingly treat electricity as a strategic economic input.

As Ken Medlock, senior director at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES), explains:

“Many of the planned data centers are now also adding behind-the-meter options to their development plans because they do not anticipate being able to manage their needs solely from the grid, and they certainly cannot do so with only intermittent power sources.”

Behind-the-meter (BTM) refers to power that a consumer controls on its side of the utility meter, such as on-site gas generation or a dedicated power plant. These resources allow data centers to keep operating during grid-related service. Most facilities remain connected to the grid, but the backup BTM generation serves as insurance for operating their core business.

This shifts responsibility. Utilities traditionally manage reliability across all customers by maintaining an operating reserve margin, or spare capacity. Increasingly, large-load customers manage part of their own electricity reliability needs, which changes how infrastructure is planned and how risk is distributed.

Bottom line

AI-driven load growth is arriving faster and in more concentrated places than the power system was built to accommodate. Utilities and regulators are being forced to make decisions sooner than planned about where to build, how fast to build, and which customers get priority when capacity is limited. The effects extend beyond data centers, showing up in system costs, reliability margins, competition for grid access, and pressure on communities and industries that depend on affordable and dependable power. The issue is not whether electricity can be generated, but how the costs and risks of rapid demand growth are distributed as the system tries to keep up. How regulators balance these decisions will determine who pays as AI demand outruns the power grid.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

From Your Site Articles
Energy hungry data centers are increasing electric costs. Getty Images

As electric bills rise, evidence mounts that data centers share blame

Data Talk

Amid rising electric bills, states are under pressure to insulate regular household and business ratepayers from the costs of feeding Big Tech's energy-hungry data centers.

It's not clear that any state has a solution and the actual effect of data centers on electricity bills is difficult to pin down. Some critics question whether states have the spine to take a hard line against tech behemoths like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta.

But more than a dozen states have begun taking steps as data centers drive a rapid build-out of power plants and transmission lines.

That has meant pressuring the nation's biggest power grid operator to clamp down on price increases, studying the effect of data centers on electricity bills or pushing data center owners to pay a larger share of local transmission costs.

Rising power bills are “something legislators have been hearing a lot about. It’s something we’ve been hearing a lot about. More people are speaking out at the public utility commission in the past year than I’ve ever seen before,” said Charlotte Shuff of the Oregon Citizens’ Utility Board, a consumer advocacy group. “There’s a massive outcry.”

Not the typical electric customer

Some data centers could require more electricity than cities the size of Pittsburgh, Cleveland or New Orleans, and make huge factories look tiny by comparison. That's pushing policymakers to rethink a system that, historically, has spread transmission costs among classes of consumers that are proportional to electricity use.

“A lot of this infrastructure, billions of dollars of it, is being built just for a few customers and a few facilities and these happen to be the wealthiest companies in the world,” said Ari Peskoe, who directs the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard University. “I think some of the fundamental assumptions behind all this just kind of breaks down.”

A fix, Peskoe said, is a “can of worms" that pits ratepayer classes against one another.

Some officials downplay the role of data centers in pushing up electric bills.

Tricia Pridemore, who sits on Georgia’s Public Service Commission and is president of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, pointed to an already tightened electricity supply and increasing costs for power lines, utility poles, transformers and generators as utilities replace aging equipment or harden it against extreme weather.

The data centers needed to accommodate the artificial intelligence boom are still in the regulatory planning stages, Pridemore said, and the Data Center Coalition, which represents Big Tech firms and data center developers, has said its members are committed to paying their fair share.

But growing evidence suggests that the electricity bills of some Americans are rising to subsidize the massive energy needs of Big Tech as the U.S. competes in a race against China for artificial intelligence superiority.

Data and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie published a report in recent weeks that suggested 20 proposed or effective specialized rates for data centers in 16 states it studied aren’t nearly enough to cover the cost of a new natural gas power plant.

In other words, unless utilities negotiate higher specialized rates, other ratepayer classes — residential, commercial and industrial — are likely paying for data center power needs.

Meanwhile, Monitoring Analytics, the independent market watchdog for the mid-Atlantic grid, produced research in June showing that 70% — or $9.3 billion — of last year's increased electricity cost was the result of data center demand.

States are responding

Last year, five governors led by Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro began pushing back against power prices set by the mid-Atlantic grid operator, PJM Interconnection, after that amount spiked nearly sevenfold. They warned of customers “paying billions more than is necessary.”

PJM has yet to propose ways to guarantee that data centers pay their freight, but Monitoring Analytics is floating the idea that data centers should be required to procure their own power.

In a filing last month, it said that would avoid a "massive wealth transfer” from average people to tech companies.

At least a dozen states are eyeing ways to make data centers pay higher local transmission costs.

In Oregon, a data center hot spot, lawmakers passed legislation in June ordering state utility regulators to develop new — presumably higher — power rates for data centers.

The Oregon Citizens’ Utility Board says there is clear evidence that costs to serve data centers are being spread across all customers — at a time when some electric bills there are up 50% over the past four years and utilities are disconnecting more people than ever.

New Jersey’s governor signed legislation last month commissioning state utility regulators to study whether ratepayers are being hit with “unreasonable rate increases” to connect data centers and to develop a specialized rate to charge data centers.

In some other states, like Texas and Utah, governors and lawmakers are trying to avoid a supply-and-demand crisis that leaves ratepayers on the hook — or in the dark.

Doubts about states protecting ratepayers

In Indiana, state utility regulators approved a settlement between Indiana Michigan Power Co., Amazon, Google, Microsoft and consumer advocates that set parameters for data center payments for service.

Kerwin Olsen, of the Citizens Action Council of Indiana, a consumer advocacy group, signed the settlement and called it a “pretty good deal” that contained more consumer protections than what state lawmakers passed.

But, he said, state law doesn't force large power users like data centers to publicly reveal their electric usage, so pinning down whether they're paying their fair share of transmission costs "will be a challenge.”

In a March report, the Environmental and Energy Law Program at Harvard University questioned the motivation of utilities and regulators to shield ratepayers from footing the cost of electricity for data centers.

Both utilities and states have incentives to attract big customers like data centers, it said.

To do it, utilities — which must get their rates approved by regulators — can offer “special deals to favored customers” like a data center and effectively shift the costs of those discounts to regular ratepayers, the authors wrote. Many state laws can shield disclosure of those rates, they said.

In Pennsylvania, an emerging data center hot spot, the state utility commission is drafting a model rate structure for utilities to consider adopting. An overarching goal is to get data center developers to put their money where their mouth is.

“We’re talking about real transmission upgrades, potentially hundreds of millions of dollars,” commission chairman Stephen DeFrank said. “And that’s what you don’t want the ratepayer to get stuck paying for."

The fresh funding will go toward advancing the company's Xeus HTS wire technology. Photo via metoxtech.com

Houston superconductor tech manufacturer raises $25M

money moves

A Houston company has closed its series B extension at $25 million.

MetOx International, which develops and manufactures high-temperature superconducting (HTS) wire, announced it closed a $25 million series B extension. Centaurus Capital, an energy-focused family office, and New System Ventures, a climate and energy transition-focused venture firm, led the round with participation from other investors.

"MetOx has developed a robust and highly scalable operation, and we are thrilled to partner with the Company as it enters this pivotal growth stage," says John Arnold, founder of Centaurus, in a news release. "The market for HTS is expanding at an unprecedented pace, with demand for HTS far outweighing supply. MetOx is poised to be the leading U.S. HTS producer, closing the supply gap and bringing dramatic capacity to high power innovations and applications. Their progress and potential are unmatched in the field, and we are proud to support their growth."

The fresh funding will go toward advancing the company's Xeus HTS wire technology for key energy transition applications by expanding MetOx's U.S.-based manufacturing capabilities to meet demand.

"This funding marks a pivotal step in our mission to revolutionize the energy and technology sectors with our advanced power delivery technology and accelerate delivery for our customers and partners. HTS is critical to enhancing the efficiency of our electric grid and enabling technological developments that, in many cases, would not be viable or even possible without superconductor technology," adds Bud Vos, CEO of MetOx. "Support from investors such as Centaurus and NSV not only provides the financial resources and strategic support required for accelerated scaleup, but also validates the broad reach of our technology across energy, data center, medical, and defense industries."

HTS wire technology is critical for the energy transition, especially amid rising data center growth, and for next generation wind turbines and interconnections.

MetOx's technology originated out of the University of Houston and was founded in 1998 by Alex Ignatiev, UH professor emeritus of physics and a fellow of the National Academy of Inventors. Last year, the company secured $3 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy to support the advancement of its proprietary manufacturing technology for its HTS wire.

"MetOx's HTS technology aligns with our systems-level research and offers a unique opportunity to dramatically accelerate the energy transition," says Ian Samuels, founder and managing partner at NSV. "MetOx's Xeus wire stands to be a force multiplier in clean energy generation and high-power transmission and distribution, enabling load growth and the deployment of power-dense data centers. NSV is excited to support MetOx as it scales domestic manufacturing capacity."

———

This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

ViVa Center — located at the old Compaq headquarters — received $40 million in C-PACE financing to revitalize its facility. Rendering courtesy of ViVa Center

Houston tech hub secures $40M to meet rising data center needs

fresh funding

A technology hub in Houston has fresh funding to drive tech advancement and data center growth.

Texas’ Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy (C-PACE) program Lone Star PACE has arranged $40 million in C-PACE financing for the revitalization of ViVa Center in Houston to help support the development of data centers that revolve around the growth of AI.

“At ViVa Center, our commitment to technological innovation and forward-thinking design drives the integration of state-of-the-art building systems,” Freddy Vaca, president of VivaVerse Solutions said in a news release.

The facility is a turnkey data center that caters to hyper-scale users in cloud computing and AI.

VivaVerse Solutions’ ViVa Center is a 2.3-million-square-foot technology hub that was once Compaq headquarters, and also once owned by Hewlett-Packard Enterprise. The ViVa Center will offer 250 megawatts of power, a dedicated chilled water plant and a natural gas pipeline for energy generation with the new development. In addition, improvements will include LED lighting, advanced HVAC systems, energy-efficient windows, and high-efficiency plumbing upgrades.

“We are thrilled to have partnered with VivaVerse Solutions on this much-needed project,” Lee McCormick, president of Lone Star PACE said in a news release. “Demand for data center infrastructure has exploded amid a rise in data consumption and technological innovation, and it’s exciting to see C-PACE play a role in meeting that need.”

C-PACE gives access to property owners to long-term financing for energy and water conservation systems at commercial buildings at lower costs. The property owners can use C-PACE to finance building retrofits, recapitalizations , or new construction. Nuveen Green Capital served as a capital provider for the project. The project involves retrofitting an existing building with Phase 1 being scheduled for completion this fall.

“We are proud to expand our partnership with Lone Star PACE by providing $40 million in C-PACE capital to VivaVerse Solutions for the deep retrofit of their data center,” Sean Ribble, senior director of originations at Nuveen Green Capital, said in a news release. “ In a capital-constrained market, more owners and developers are recognizing the value of C-PACE as a flexible, cost-efficient financing solution for commercial real estate projects of all asset classes. We look forward to supporting many more C-PACE deals across Texas as the platform continues its expansion as a more mainstream financing option.”

———

This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

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10+ must-attend Houston energy events happening in Q3 2026

Must-attend meetings

Editor's note: Q3 is here, and with it, a full slate of must-attend events for Houston energy professionals. On the agenda are exciting exhibitions, expos, week-long happenings, and more. Mark your calendars for these top Houston energy transition events taking place July to September 2026, and begin registering today. Please note: this article may be updated to include additional events.

July 15-16: Downstream USA Conference & Exhibition

Now in its 14th year, Reuters Events: Downstream USA 2026 brings together 3,000+ decision‑makers from refining, chemicals, petrochemicals, EPCs, technology providers, and more. Join the industry’s largest and most influential downstream gathering, which features more than 160 exhibition spaces to connect owner-operators and solution providers through interactive, peer-led session formats and onstage discussions.

This event begins July 15 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

July 24: Chevron Innovation Competition

The University of Houston presents the 5th Annual Chevron Innovation Commercialization Competition, a dynamic event that empowers students to transform cutting-edge energy research into real-world solutions. This event is sponsored by Chevron and coordinated by UH Energy.

The elimination round takes place July 24 at 2 pm. Find details here.

August 17-20: IMAGE '26

Co-hosted by SEG and AAPG, the International Meeting for Applied Geoscience and Energy event (IMAGE '26) is the world’s premier gathering for geoscientists, energy professionals, and industry leaders to connect and innovate. A global audience from all sectors of geosciences and energy come together in Houston to collaborate and network through a comprehensive technical program with more than 1,100 presentations, engaging panel discussions, hands-on workshops and courses, and a unique exhibition experience.

This event begins August 17 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

August 18-19: AVEVA Day Energy & EPC

AVEVA Day Energy & EPC brings together 400+ leaders and experts from the oil & gas, energy, chemicals, and EPC industries. Attendees will connect with peers facing similar challenges, learn from real customer stories, and discover how companies are accelerating operations with AI and industrial intelligence.

This event begins August 18 at Westin Houston Memorial City. Register here.

August 26-27: Texas Energy Forum 2026

Organized by U.S. Energy Stream, the 2026 conference will focuses on the theme, "AI Runs on Texas Energy: How Texas and Alberta Are Powering the AI Revolution." The forum brings together U.S. Senators, members of Congress, senior government officials, and leaders from the energy, technology, manufacturing, and financial sectors for candid discussions on the energy, infrastructure, and technological advancements required to power the AI revolution and strengthen American competitiveness.

This event begins August 26 at the Petroleum Club of Houston. Register here.

September 13-18: Houston Energy & Climate Week

Houston Energy & Climate Week is a six-day gathering that welcomes an unparalleled selection of global energy leaders and communities to the energy capital of the world for a full slate of events, from tech tours and networking to a climatetech summit and digital symposium.

This event kicks off September 13 and continues for six days. Find details here.

September 14-18 Houston Energy + Climate Startup Week

Launched in 2024, the official Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week returns for its third year, showcasing how Houston is developing and scaling real solutions by meeting growing global energy demand while reducing carbon emissions. Join leading energy and climate venture capital investors, industry leaders, and startups from around the world for this showcase of the most innovative companies and technologies that are transforming the energy industry while driving a sustainable, low-carbon energy future.

This event kicks off September 14 and continues all week. Find details here.

September 20-23: 2026 Geothermal Rising Conference

Geothermal Rising Conference is the industry’s flagship annual conference, reflecting the global nature of the geothermal industry while highlighting the width and breadth of the community. The conference offers technical, policy, and market sessions, educational seminars, tours of geothermal and renewable energy projects, and numerous networking opportunities. An additional expo showcases projects, services, and state-of-the-art technology and equipment for the geothermal community.

This event begins September 20 at Marriott Marquis Houston. Register here.

September 22-23: 2026 API Offshore Safe Lifting Conference & Expo

The 2026 API Offshore Safe Lifting Conference & Expo is your opportunity to see the latest offshore developments while sharing experiences, practices, and even information on real-life incidents. The 2026 program features two full days of technical sessions, regulatory insights, and networking focused on advancing offshore lifting safety, with keynotes, emerging technologies, and multiple networking opportunities.

This event begins September 22 at the Royal Sonesta Houston Galleria. Register here.

September 22-24: Intelligent Asset Management in Energy Summit

The Intelligent Asset Management in Energy Summit is the premier North American event dedicated to helping energy leaders unlock the full potential of their assets through advanced analytics, predictive maintenance, and integrated digital strategies. The 2026 summit will cover how innovative asset management solutions can reduce downtime, optimize performance, and deliver measurable ROI in a rapidly evolving energy landscape.

This event begins September 22 at Norris Conference Center. Register here.

Houston startup secures $5M to turn oilfield wastewater into critical minerals

fresh funding

Houston-based startup Altillion has secured $5 million in seed funding to accelerate the commercialization of its proprietary IRIS and ALIX technologies, which convert oilfield-produced water into valuable minerals.

San Francisco-based EIC Rose Rock and Houston-based Flathead Forge led the round. Altillion says the funding will go toward pilot facilities and commercial deployments as the company looks to scale in the U.S.

“Altillion’s efficient and scalable technologies are needed more than ever to reshape critical mineral recovery and facilitate beneficial use of oilfield brines,” Jay Keener, Altillion’s CEO and co-founder, said in a news release. “We’re uniquely positioned to provide a stable, domestic supply of the critical minerals needed for electronics, batteries, healthcare and national defense technologies. This investment from EIC Rose Rock and Flathead Forge enables us to strategically accelerate this impact and is very timely given the current geopolitical dynamics.”

Altillion's IRIS and ALIX platforms extract minerals like iodine, lithium and copper from oilfield-produced water, geothermal brines and salars. This process allows companies to unlock new sources of revenue while also boosting the domestic critical minerals supply chain. The company announced earlier this summer that it will launch a feasibility project in the Permian Basin and aims to develop a path to commercial-scale implementation in the field.

“We are excited to partner with Altillion to scale and deploy these world-class technologies to access the vast wealth hidden in wastewater,” David Clouse, Managing Director of EIC Rose Rock, added in the release. “With Altillion, we’re expanding our ability to empower the energy industry to domestically source the critical minerals America needs for a robust economy and supply chain.”

Altillion was founded by Keener and COO Scott Buckwald in 2023. Keener previously founded KDH Trading, where Buckwald also serves as COO, according to his LinkedIn page.

Houston's KBR to provide tech for Singapore SAF plant

SAF agreement

Houston engineering and technology contractor KBR has been picked as the technology provider for what’s expected to be Asia's first commercial-scale ethanol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant.

The proposed plant on Jurong Island in Singapore is being developed by Keppel Ltd.’s Infrastructure Division and Aster Chemicals and Energy. KBR will provide technology licensing and Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) services based on its PureSAF technology.

The plant has a planned production capacity of up to 100,000 tons of SAF per year. The plant is subject to final investment decisions and regulatory approvals.

“We are looking forward to working with Keppel and Aster on this key project and to support Singapore’s ambition of becoming Asia’s leading SAF hub and advancing the ongoing efforts to decarbonize the country’s aviation ecosystem,” Stuart Bradie, KBR president and CEO, said in a news release.

According to KBR, its PureSAF Technology can process multiple feedstocks like bioethanol, syngas, carbon dioxide and hydrogen and convert them to SAF, diesel and gasoline.

The technology was developed by Swedish Biofuels AB and commercialized by KBR.

“KBR’s PureSAF is a feedstock-flexible, bankable technology that is designed to deliver a 100% drop in jet fuel, ready to power aircraft without blending,” Bradie added in the news release. “We are constantly innovating our SAF solution to make it compatible with feedstock availability in different regions and to enable the aviation industry to transition to low-carbon jet fuel with a cost-optimized approach.

KBR has also entered into a memorandum of intent with Keppel’s Infrastructure Division, which states that the companies will collaborate again on decarbonization efforts across biofuels, plastic recycling, digitalization via AI, and SAF.

KBR announced in October that it would spin off its Mission Technology Solutions business, nicknamed SpinCo. The scaled-down KBR, nicknamed RemainCo, would concentrate solely on sustainability technology and services designed to reduce carbon emissions and support energy transition efforts. SpinCo named its new CEO and CFO earlier this month.

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