Scotty Nyquist discuss the growth in AI data centers and the strain on the system. Photo via HARC report

For most of the past 20 years, U.S. electricity policy relied on predictable trends in demand. Electricity use, in most regions, increased gradually, forecasts were stable, and utilities adjusted the system in small steps. Power plants, transmission lines, and substations were generally added to reflect shifts in load, rather than growth, and costs were recovered through modest adjustments to customer bills.

Growth in AI data centers has disrupted this model. A single facility can add as much electricity demand as a small town. That demand comes all at once, runs continuously, and has little tolerance for outages. If electricity service drops even briefly, computation stops, and services shut down. Ironically, data centers need reliable service, a point that their emergence is driving concern around for the rest of the grid.

What the numbers say

The International Energy Agency projects global electricity consumption from data centers to double by 2030, reaching roughly 945 TWh, nearly 3 percent of global electricity demand, with consumption growing about 15 percent per year this decade. McKinsey projects that U.S. data center demand alone could grow 20–25 percent per year, with global capacity demand more than tripling by 2030.

After years of roughly 0.5 percent annual demand growth, many forecasts now place total U.S. electricity demand growth closer to 2–3 percent per year through the mid-2030s, with much higher growth in specific regions. In Texas, some forecasters are saying electricity demand could double over the next five years, a staggering 10 percent per year growth rate. What sounds incremental on paper translates into a major challenge on the ground. Meeting this pace of growth is estimated to require $250–$300 billion per year in grid investment, about double what the system has been absorbing.

Where the system starts to strain

The strain appears first in the interconnection queue. It shows up as long waits, backlogs, and delays for connecting new loads and new generation.

Before new generators or large load customers can be connected, a study is required to assess their impact on the grid, whether it can physically handle the added load, and whether upgrades are required. With AI-driven data centers, utilities face far more connection requests than they can realistically support. In ERCOT, large-load interconnection requests exceed 200 gigawatts, most tied to data centers. That amount exceeds historical norms, and it is several times larger than what can be practically studied or built in the near term.

To be clear, public utility commissions are required to study these requests because they must manage system capabilities to ensure minimal disruption. This means engineers spend time evaluating projects that may never be built, while other more commercially viable projects may wait longer for approvals. This extends timelines and makes infrastructure planning less reliable.

Why policymakers are rethinking the rules

Utilities and their regulators must decide how much generation, transmission, and substation capacity to build years before it comes online. Those decisions are based on expected demand at the time projects are approved. When it comes to data centers, by the time infrastructure is completed, they may end up deploying newer, more efficient chips that use less power than originally assumed. This can result in grid infrastructure built for a higher load than what actually materializes, leaving excess capacity that still must be paid for through system-wide rates.

That’s the central dilemma. If utilities build too little capacity, the system operates with less reserve margin. During periods of grid stress, operators have fewer options, increasing the likelihood of curtailments or outages. However, if utilities build too much, customers may be asked to pay for infrastructure that is not fully used.

In response, policymakers are adjusting the rules. In some regions, regulators are moving toward bring-your-own-power approaches that require large data centers to supply or fund part of the capacity needed to serve them or reduce demand during system stress. At the federal level, permitting reforms tied to datacenter infrastructure increasingly treat electricity as a strategic economic input.

As Ken Medlock, senior director at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES), explains:

“Many of the planned data centers are now also adding behind-the-meter options to their development plans because they do not anticipate being able to manage their needs solely from the grid, and they certainly cannot do so with only intermittent power sources.”

Behind-the-meter (BTM) refers to power that a consumer controls on its side of the utility meter, such as on-site gas generation or a dedicated power plant. These resources allow data centers to keep operating during grid-related service. Most facilities remain connected to the grid, but the backup BTM generation serves as insurance for operating their core business.

This shifts responsibility. Utilities traditionally manage reliability across all customers by maintaining an operating reserve margin, or spare capacity. Increasingly, large-load customers manage part of their own electricity reliability needs, which changes how infrastructure is planned and how risk is distributed.

Bottom line

AI-driven load growth is arriving faster and in more concentrated places than the power system was built to accommodate. Utilities and regulators are being forced to make decisions sooner than planned about where to build, how fast to build, and which customers get priority when capacity is limited. The effects extend beyond data centers, showing up in system costs, reliability margins, competition for grid access, and pressure on communities and industries that depend on affordable and dependable power. The issue is not whether electricity can be generated, but how the costs and risks of rapid demand growth are distributed as the system tries to keep up. How regulators balance these decisions will determine who pays as AI demand outruns the power grid.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

Energy hungry data centers are increasing electric costs. Getty Images

As electric bills rise, evidence mounts that data centers share blame

Data Talk

Amid rising electric bills, states are under pressure to insulate regular household and business ratepayers from the costs of feeding Big Tech's energy-hungry data centers.

It's not clear that any state has a solution and the actual effect of data centers on electricity bills is difficult to pin down. Some critics question whether states have the spine to take a hard line against tech behemoths like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta.

But more than a dozen states have begun taking steps as data centers drive a rapid build-out of power plants and transmission lines.

That has meant pressuring the nation's biggest power grid operator to clamp down on price increases, studying the effect of data centers on electricity bills or pushing data center owners to pay a larger share of local transmission costs.

Rising power bills are “something legislators have been hearing a lot about. It’s something we’ve been hearing a lot about. More people are speaking out at the public utility commission in the past year than I’ve ever seen before,” said Charlotte Shuff of the Oregon Citizens’ Utility Board, a consumer advocacy group. “There’s a massive outcry.”

Not the typical electric customer

Some data centers could require more electricity than cities the size of Pittsburgh, Cleveland or New Orleans, and make huge factories look tiny by comparison. That's pushing policymakers to rethink a system that, historically, has spread transmission costs among classes of consumers that are proportional to electricity use.

“A lot of this infrastructure, billions of dollars of it, is being built just for a few customers and a few facilities and these happen to be the wealthiest companies in the world,” said Ari Peskoe, who directs the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard University. “I think some of the fundamental assumptions behind all this just kind of breaks down.”

A fix, Peskoe said, is a “can of worms" that pits ratepayer classes against one another.

Some officials downplay the role of data centers in pushing up electric bills.

Tricia Pridemore, who sits on Georgia’s Public Service Commission and is president of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, pointed to an already tightened electricity supply and increasing costs for power lines, utility poles, transformers and generators as utilities replace aging equipment or harden it against extreme weather.

The data centers needed to accommodate the artificial intelligence boom are still in the regulatory planning stages, Pridemore said, and the Data Center Coalition, which represents Big Tech firms and data center developers, has said its members are committed to paying their fair share.

But growing evidence suggests that the electricity bills of some Americans are rising to subsidize the massive energy needs of Big Tech as the U.S. competes in a race against China for artificial intelligence superiority.

Data and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie published a report in recent weeks that suggested 20 proposed or effective specialized rates for data centers in 16 states it studied aren’t nearly enough to cover the cost of a new natural gas power plant.

In other words, unless utilities negotiate higher specialized rates, other ratepayer classes — residential, commercial and industrial — are likely paying for data center power needs.

Meanwhile, Monitoring Analytics, the independent market watchdog for the mid-Atlantic grid, produced research in June showing that 70% — or $9.3 billion — of last year's increased electricity cost was the result of data center demand.

States are responding

Last year, five governors led by Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro began pushing back against power prices set by the mid-Atlantic grid operator, PJM Interconnection, after that amount spiked nearly sevenfold. They warned of customers “paying billions more than is necessary.”

PJM has yet to propose ways to guarantee that data centers pay their freight, but Monitoring Analytics is floating the idea that data centers should be required to procure their own power.

In a filing last month, it said that would avoid a "massive wealth transfer” from average people to tech companies.

At least a dozen states are eyeing ways to make data centers pay higher local transmission costs.

In Oregon, a data center hot spot, lawmakers passed legislation in June ordering state utility regulators to develop new — presumably higher — power rates for data centers.

The Oregon Citizens’ Utility Board says there is clear evidence that costs to serve data centers are being spread across all customers — at a time when some electric bills there are up 50% over the past four years and utilities are disconnecting more people than ever.

New Jersey’s governor signed legislation last month commissioning state utility regulators to study whether ratepayers are being hit with “unreasonable rate increases” to connect data centers and to develop a specialized rate to charge data centers.

In some other states, like Texas and Utah, governors and lawmakers are trying to avoid a supply-and-demand crisis that leaves ratepayers on the hook — or in the dark.

Doubts about states protecting ratepayers

In Indiana, state utility regulators approved a settlement between Indiana Michigan Power Co., Amazon, Google, Microsoft and consumer advocates that set parameters for data center payments for service.

Kerwin Olsen, of the Citizens Action Council of Indiana, a consumer advocacy group, signed the settlement and called it a “pretty good deal” that contained more consumer protections than what state lawmakers passed.

But, he said, state law doesn't force large power users like data centers to publicly reveal their electric usage, so pinning down whether they're paying their fair share of transmission costs "will be a challenge.”

In a March report, the Environmental and Energy Law Program at Harvard University questioned the motivation of utilities and regulators to shield ratepayers from footing the cost of electricity for data centers.

Both utilities and states have incentives to attract big customers like data centers, it said.

To do it, utilities — which must get their rates approved by regulators — can offer “special deals to favored customers” like a data center and effectively shift the costs of those discounts to regular ratepayers, the authors wrote. Many state laws can shield disclosure of those rates, they said.

In Pennsylvania, an emerging data center hot spot, the state utility commission is drafting a model rate structure for utilities to consider adopting. An overarching goal is to get data center developers to put their money where their mouth is.

“We’re talking about real transmission upgrades, potentially hundreds of millions of dollars,” commission chairman Stephen DeFrank said. “And that’s what you don’t want the ratepayer to get stuck paying for."

The fresh funding will go toward advancing the company's Xeus HTS wire technology. Photo via metoxtech.com

Houston superconductor tech manufacturer raises $25M

money moves

A Houston company has closed its series B extension at $25 million.

MetOx International, which develops and manufactures high-temperature superconducting (HTS) wire, announced it closed a $25 million series B extension. Centaurus Capital, an energy-focused family office, and New System Ventures, a climate and energy transition-focused venture firm, led the round with participation from other investors.

"MetOx has developed a robust and highly scalable operation, and we are thrilled to partner with the Company as it enters this pivotal growth stage," says John Arnold, founder of Centaurus, in a news release. "The market for HTS is expanding at an unprecedented pace, with demand for HTS far outweighing supply. MetOx is poised to be the leading U.S. HTS producer, closing the supply gap and bringing dramatic capacity to high power innovations and applications. Their progress and potential are unmatched in the field, and we are proud to support their growth."

The fresh funding will go toward advancing the company's Xeus HTS wire technology for key energy transition applications by expanding MetOx's U.S.-based manufacturing capabilities to meet demand.

"This funding marks a pivotal step in our mission to revolutionize the energy and technology sectors with our advanced power delivery technology and accelerate delivery for our customers and partners. HTS is critical to enhancing the efficiency of our electric grid and enabling technological developments that, in many cases, would not be viable or even possible without superconductor technology," adds Bud Vos, CEO of MetOx. "Support from investors such as Centaurus and NSV not only provides the financial resources and strategic support required for accelerated scaleup, but also validates the broad reach of our technology across energy, data center, medical, and defense industries."

HTS wire technology is critical for the energy transition, especially amid rising data center growth, and for next generation wind turbines and interconnections.

MetOx's technology originated out of the University of Houston and was founded in 1998 by Alex Ignatiev, UH professor emeritus of physics and a fellow of the National Academy of Inventors. Last year, the company secured $3 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy to support the advancement of its proprietary manufacturing technology for its HTS wire.

"MetOx's HTS technology aligns with our systems-level research and offers a unique opportunity to dramatically accelerate the energy transition," says Ian Samuels, founder and managing partner at NSV. "MetOx's Xeus wire stands to be a force multiplier in clean energy generation and high-power transmission and distribution, enabling load growth and the deployment of power-dense data centers. NSV is excited to support MetOx as it scales domestic manufacturing capacity."

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

ViVa Center — located at the old Compaq headquarters — received $40 million in C-PACE financing to revitalize its facility. Rendering courtesy of ViVa Center

Houston tech hub secures $40M to meet rising data center needs

fresh funding

A technology hub in Houston has fresh funding to drive tech advancement and data center growth.

Texas’ Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy (C-PACE) program Lone Star PACE has arranged $40 million in C-PACE financing for the revitalization of ViVa Center in Houston to help support the development of data centers that revolve around the growth of AI.

“At ViVa Center, our commitment to technological innovation and forward-thinking design drives the integration of state-of-the-art building systems,” Freddy Vaca, president of VivaVerse Solutions said in a news release.

The facility is a turnkey data center that caters to hyper-scale users in cloud computing and AI.

VivaVerse Solutions’ ViVa Center is a 2.3-million-square-foot technology hub that was once Compaq headquarters, and also once owned by Hewlett-Packard Enterprise. The ViVa Center will offer 250 megawatts of power, a dedicated chilled water plant and a natural gas pipeline for energy generation with the new development. In addition, improvements will include LED lighting, advanced HVAC systems, energy-efficient windows, and high-efficiency plumbing upgrades.

“We are thrilled to have partnered with VivaVerse Solutions on this much-needed project,” Lee McCormick, president of Lone Star PACE said in a news release. “Demand for data center infrastructure has exploded amid a rise in data consumption and technological innovation, and it’s exciting to see C-PACE play a role in meeting that need.”

C-PACE gives access to property owners to long-term financing for energy and water conservation systems at commercial buildings at lower costs. The property owners can use C-PACE to finance building retrofits, recapitalizations , or new construction. Nuveen Green Capital served as a capital provider for the project. The project involves retrofitting an existing building with Phase 1 being scheduled for completion this fall.

“We are proud to expand our partnership with Lone Star PACE by providing $40 million in C-PACE capital to VivaVerse Solutions for the deep retrofit of their data center,” Sean Ribble, senior director of originations at Nuveen Green Capital, said in a news release. “ In a capital-constrained market, more owners and developers are recognizing the value of C-PACE as a flexible, cost-efficient financing solution for commercial real estate projects of all asset classes. We look forward to supporting many more C-PACE deals across Texas as the platform continues its expansion as a more mainstream financing option.”

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

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Japanese company plans $357M solar manufacturing plant in Houston area

coming soon

Japanese solar manufacturing company TOYO Co. Ltd. plans to invest $357 million to bring a 1.5-gigwatt solar cell manufacturing facility to the Houston area.

TOYO’s latest state-of-the-art facility will be co-located at its existing solar module site in Humble, according to a news release from the company. It will produce heterojunction (HJT) solar cells, which are known to be more durable and efficient with a higher heat threshold.

TOYO reports that the new facility will create 400 full-time manufacturing jobs. The project is expected to be completed in 20 months, which includes an initial pilot production.

"Expanding into domestic cell manufacturing is the natural next step in our commitment to creating an integrated onshore solar supply chain from polysilicon to panels," Takahiko Onozuka, chairman and CEO of TOYO, said in the news release. "Co-locating 1.5 GW of HJT cell capacity at our Houston module site significantly optimizes our capital allocation and infrastructure spend.”

TOYO entered the Houston market in 2024 through its acquisition of a majority stake in Solar Plus Technology Texas LLC.

Earlier this year, it began producing solar modules at its 567,140-square-foot plant in Lovett Industrial’s Nexus North Logistics Park. At the time, the company said it planned to expand manufacturing capacity to 6.5 gigawatts.

"The new cell plant reflects TOYO's long-term strategy to build a fully FEOC-compliant domestic manufacturing platform focused on serving the needs of the U.S. utility-scale solar market," Rhone Resch, TOYO's chief strategy officer, added in the release. "By producing premium solar products in the United States, we will be well positioned to meet the market's evolving domestic content requirements while strengthening supply chain security and reliability. Looking ahead, we believe HJT is the optimal technology platform for integrating next-generation perovskite solar cells, which we expect will drive the next major advancement in solar conversion efficiency and support TOYO's long-term technology roadmap.”

New survey reveals concerns over AI data center growth in Houston

data findings

A new report out of the University of Houston shows that area residents remain wary of the long-term effects of operating data centers.

The recent survey from the University of Houston’s latest SPACE City Panel, conducted by the Center for Public Policy at the Hobby School of Public Affairs, shows that while 85 percent of Houston-area residents use AI, nearly 63 percent oppose the construction of AI data centers within 1 mile of their homes.

Respondents’ concerns centered around data centers’ high energy demand and the area’s power grid reliability. According to the survey, 32 percent of residents who oppose local data center projects would be more likely to support the centers if they relied on renewable energy over fossil fuels.

“Respondents understand that AI can bring economic and educational benefits, but they are also concerned about the physical infrastructure needed to fuel AI, especially data centers,” Soran Mohtadi, post-doctoral fellow at the Hobby School and a researcher on the report, said in a news release. “This physical infrastructure demands more electricity and water, leading to environmental impacts.”

Experts estimate that 6.5 gigawatts of data center capacity will be added to the Texas grid by 2030. And Houston’s data center capacity is predicted to more than double by 2028.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas also projects electricity demand could reach 218 gigawatts by 2031, which would be more than double the record peak set in August 2023. Data centers are expected to account for 86 gigawatts of that new demand.

Survey respondents also said they are concerned about the state's future water supply, given the large amounts of water that data centers need to stay cool.

In terms of who’s responsible for that issue, 57.6 percent of respondents said they put the onus on Texas lawmakers, while 31.5 percent say tech companies should be responsible.

Additionally, more than 75 percent of respondents believed that data center developers and technology companies—not residents—should bear the cost of infrastructure upgrades to support data centers.

“Every decision legislators make has implications on residents’ everyday lives and local infrastructure now and in the future,” Maria P. Perez Arguelles, lead researcher on the report and research assistant professor at the Hobby School, added in the news release. “This issue is going to become more important in years to come, so this is just the beginning.”

Read the full report here.

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

American Airlines and Google ink record-breaking deal for cleaner jet fuel

SAF DEAL

Fort Worth-based American Airlines has sealed a record-breaking deal with tech giant Google to bolster the use of cleaner jet fuel.

The deal involves Google’s purchase of sustainable aviation fuel certificates tied to fuel that American will use at Chicago O’Hare International Airport, one of the airline’s hubs. These certificates enable companies like Google to pay for the environmental benefits of sustainable jet fuel without actually using the fuel.

American and Google say this is the largest publicly announced certificate deal between an airline and a corporate customer.

Google says environmental gains from the certificates will help it cut emissions from employees’ business travel.

The agreement covers 35 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel over three years, resulting in a nearly 300,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. American has agreed to buy the fuel from San Antonio-based Valero.

“Our industry-leading agreement with Google is a critical step forward in reducing emissions from our operations,” Jill Blickstein, American’s chief sustainability officer, said in a news release. “By working with leaders like Google who share our commitment to innovation, we’re helping to grow demand for [cleaner jet fuel] and support the development of a stronger, more resilient market.”

Sustainable aviation fuel can reduce emissions by up to 80 percent compared with traditional jet fuel. It is made from feedstocks, like waste oil and fats, or it can be produced synthetically using captured carbon dioxide and renewable electricity.

The aviation industry accounts for about 2.5 percent of carbon dioxide emissions around the world, according to the International Energy Agency.