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Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

  • "Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
  • "The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
  • "Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

  • EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
  • EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
  • In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla plans to lay off 10 percent of workforce after dismal quarterly sales

making cuts

After reporting dismal first-quarter sales, Tesla is planning to lay off about a tenth of its workforce as it tries to cut costs, multiple media outlets reported Monday.

CEO Elon Musk detailed the plans in a memo sent to employees. The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year.

Musk's memo said that as Tesla prepares for its next phase of growth, “it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity,” The New York Times and CNBC reported. News of the layoffs was first reported by electric vehicle website Electrek.

Also Monday, two key Tesla executives announced on the social media platform X that they are leaving the company. Andrew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, wrote that he had made the decision to leave after 18 years with the company.

Rohan Patel, senior global director of public policy and business development, also wrote on X that he was leaving Tesla, after eight years.

Baglino, who held several top engineering jobs at the company and was chief technology officer, wrote that the decision to leave was difficult. “I loved tackling nearly every problem we solved as a team and feel gratified to have contributed to the mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy,” he wrote.

He has no concrete plans beyond spending more time with family and his young children, but wrote that he has difficulty staying still for long.

Musk thanked Baglino in a reply. “Few have contributed as much as you,” he wrote.

Shares of Tesla fell 4.8 percent Monday afternoon, hours after news of the layoffs and departures broke. Shares of Tesla Inc. have lost about one-third of their value so far this year as sales of electric vehicles soften.

Tesla sales fell sharply last quarter as competition increased worldwide, electric vehicle sales growth slowed, and price cuts failed to draw more buyers. The company said it delivered 386,810 vehicles from January through March, nearly 9 percent below the 423,000 it sold in the same quarter of last year.

Since last year, Tesla has cut prices as much as $20,000 on some models as it faced increasing competition and slowing demand. The price cuts caused used electric vehicle values to drop and clipped Tesla's profit margins.

The company has said it will reveal an autonomous robotaxi at an event in August.

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Houston cleantech startup secures $134M to develop ‘superhot’ geothermal plant

deep round

Houston-based Quaise Energy, a producer of utility-scale geothermal power, raised $134 million in a Series B round to advance its “superhot” geothermal power plant.

Climate-focused San Francisco-based investment firm Prelude Ventures led the round, with participation from JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generation company, and Idemitsu Kosan, one of Japan’s largest energy companies. Nearly all existing investors, including cleantech-focused investment firm Safar Partners, participated in the round.

“We have backed Quaise since the beginning because we believed accessing superhot rock would unlock geothermal energy at a scale the world has never seen,” Mark Cupta, managing director at Prelude Ventures, said in a press release.

The startup expects more equity and debt deals to close “imminently.” Quaise has raised $230 million since its founding in 2018.

Quaise says some of the fresh funding will go toward building the world’s first commercial-scale “superhot” geothermal power plant —Project Obsidian in central Oregon. In addition, Quaise is earmarking money for continued development and commercialization of its millimeter-wave drilling system toward depths exceeding 5 kilometers (about 16,400 feet).

Quaise uses a millimeter-wave drilling system developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to remove rock at depths and temperatures that aren’t economically feasible with conventional drilling. With this technology, Quaise can reach rock at temperatures of around 570 degrees to 930 degrees in most places worldwide, enabling construction of geothermal systems that rival fossil fuels and nuclear energy in power density and that rival renewables in cost.

“Our ambition is to power civilization with Earth's most compelling energy source. This round takes us from field-proven technology to first commercial revenues,” Carlos Araque, co-founder, president and CEO of Quaise, added in the release.

Quaise has demonstrated the capability of its millimeter-wave drilling system at its Central Texas test site, drilling more than about 330 feet through granite in 2025—the first time the technology penetrated basement rock at full scale in the field. The company is approaching a depth of about 3,300 feet at the same site.

Construction of Project Obsidian is underway at Oregon’s Deschutes National Forest. The project, which has the potential to generate gigawatt-scale power, is slated to deliver electricity to the Pacific Northwest grid by 2030.

Shell expands lower-carbon energy solutions while cutting emissions

The View from HETI

Shell’s approach to sustainable development reflects an integrated value chain perspective—reducing emissions from oil and gas production, transforming downstream businesses to offer more low-carbon solutions, and building new energy businesses at scale. The company’s 31% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 operational emissions since 2016 demonstrates that this integrated strategy delivers results.

Three Strategic Priorities Drive Progress

Leading Integrated Gas: Shell is growing its world-leading LNG business with lower carbon intensity, meeting rising demand for natural gas as a transition fuel and foundation for renewable energy integration.

Advantaged Upstream: The company is cutting emissions from oil and gas production while keeping output stable, proving that operational excellence can reduce environmental impact without sacrificing energy security.

Differentiated Downstream, Renewables, and Energy Solutions: Shell is transforming its businesses to offer more low-carbon solutions while reducing sales of traditional oil products, positioning the company for the evolving energy market.

Shell’s emissions reductions are happening across global operations:

  • United States: Significant emissions cuts from production assets through operational efficiency and technology deployment
  • Malaysia & Philippines: Emissions reduction programs at offshore operations demonstrating that low-carbon production works in diverse environments
  • Norway: Continued emissions intensity improvements from mature assets, showing that even older fields can decarbonize

Whale Partnership Demonstrates Innovation

Shell’s recent partnership with Chevron at the Whale deepwater asset showcases what’s possible with next-generation project design. By integrating emissions reduction strategies from the start, the partnership has lowered the greenhouse gas intensity approximately 30% over the project lifecycle relative to similar deepwater oil and gas production assets.

Shell’s strategy to deliver more value with less emissions includes climate change transition plans, mitigation actions and decarbonization levers supported by a suite of processes and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets such as:

2025 Results:

  • Eliminated routine flaring from upstream operations
  • Maintained methane emissions intensity below 0.2%

By 2030:

  • Halve Scope 1 and 2 emissions under operational control (vs. 2016)
  • Achieve near-zero methane emissions
  • Reduce Scope 3 net carbon intensity (NCI) by 15-20% (vs. 2016)
  • Cut customer emissions from oil products by 15-20% (vs. 2021)

By 2050:

  • Achieve net zero emissions across Scopes 1, 2, and 3

Across all strategic initiatives, Shell prioritizes trading and optimization capabilities that maximize value while minimizing emissions. This commercial approach ensures that the company’s energy transition strategy creates long-term shareholder value while advancing climate goals.

Shell is building an integrated energy business for the low-carbon future by delivering the energy products customers need today while investing in the solutions they’ll need tomorrow.

As a steering-level member of HETI, Shell exemplifies the leadership and commitment required to transform Houston’s energy sector while maintaining global energy security.

———

This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. Explore Shell’s energy transition strategy at: https://www.shell.us/about-us/sustainability.html, and read the full analysis here: https://htxenergytransition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/07.18.25-HETI-Leadership-Narrative-Report-V2_pages-1-2.pdf

UH report projects $1T in new midstream infrastructure needed to power AI era

midstream report

A new study from the University of Houston estimates that the U.S. will need more than $1 trillion in new midstream energy infrastructure investment by 2052 to meet the rising energy demands from data centers in the age of artificial intelligence.

According to the report, this would average $40 billion to $48 billion per year across investments in natural gas, oil, natural gas liquids, hydrogen and CO2 infrastructure.

UH, in collaboration with the INGAA Foundation and Wood and ESMIA Consultants, released the 2025 North American Midstream Infrastructure Report, which details the needs, pipelines and associated infrastructure necessary to meet global market needs and increased energy demands. UH led the consortium that conducted the analysis. Paul Doucette, hydrogen program officer at UH, served as the principal investigator of the report.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, data center energy consumption could reach 800 terawatt-hours annually by 2050, a roughly 167 percent increase from 300 terawatt-hours in 2025. Meanwhile, electricity generation from all energy sources is projected to reach 5,858 terawatt-hours in 2052, a 27 percent increase over current levels.

The report proposes two routes to meeting this level of demand.

The first scenario is a reference case based on current federal, state and provincial policies as of April 1, 2025. The second option presents a low-carbon scenario. The report concludes that natural gas would need to remain a “foundational component of the region’s energy system” in both scenarios.

“Meeting energy demand is a critical challenge right now, and this report quantifies the necessary midstream infrastructure and corresponding development dollars needed to meet that demand,” Hebe Shaw, executive director of the INGAA Foundation, said in a news release. “Meeting the energy needs of North America will require sustained investment and development, which must begin now to ensure a safe, reliable and affordable energy system.”

The report also identified several key midstream infrastructure requirements, including:

  • 103,000 miles of new natural gas gathering pipelines
  • 37,000 miles of additional natural gas transmission pipelines, which includes approximately 33,800 miles in the United States
  • 24 million jobs over 25 years

The report adds that hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and other decarbonization strategies can help meet infrastructure needs.

UH released a condensed version of the report here.

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