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Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

  • "Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
  • "The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
  • "Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

  • EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
  • EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
  • In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla plans to lay off 10 percent of workforce after dismal quarterly sales

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After reporting dismal first-quarter sales, Tesla is planning to lay off about a tenth of its workforce as it tries to cut costs, multiple media outlets reported Monday.

CEO Elon Musk detailed the plans in a memo sent to employees. The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year.

Musk's memo said that as Tesla prepares for its next phase of growth, “it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity,” The New York Times and CNBC reported. News of the layoffs was first reported by electric vehicle website Electrek.

Also Monday, two key Tesla executives announced on the social media platform X that they are leaving the company. Andrew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, wrote that he had made the decision to leave after 18 years with the company.

Rohan Patel, senior global director of public policy and business development, also wrote on X that he was leaving Tesla, after eight years.

Baglino, who held several top engineering jobs at the company and was chief technology officer, wrote that the decision to leave was difficult. “I loved tackling nearly every problem we solved as a team and feel gratified to have contributed to the mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy,” he wrote.

He has no concrete plans beyond spending more time with family and his young children, but wrote that he has difficulty staying still for long.

Musk thanked Baglino in a reply. “Few have contributed as much as you,” he wrote.

Shares of Tesla fell 4.8 percent Monday afternoon, hours after news of the layoffs and departures broke. Shares of Tesla Inc. have lost about one-third of their value so far this year as sales of electric vehicles soften.

Tesla sales fell sharply last quarter as competition increased worldwide, electric vehicle sales growth slowed, and price cuts failed to draw more buyers. The company said it delivered 386,810 vehicles from January through March, nearly 9 percent below the 423,000 it sold in the same quarter of last year.

Since last year, Tesla has cut prices as much as $20,000 on some models as it faced increasing competition and slowing demand. The price cuts caused used electric vehicle values to drop and clipped Tesla's profit margins.

The company has said it will reveal an autonomous robotaxi at an event in August.

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Helix Earth closes $12M round and more Houston energy headlines

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Editor's note: The top energy transition headlines for the month include Helix Earth's Seed 2 funding and Chevron's plans for a West Texas power plant. Below are the five most-read EnergyCapital stories published April 1-15, 2026:

1. Houston cleantech company closes $12M seed round

Helix Earth is developing a retrofit technology that has the potential to cut HVAC energy use by up to 50 percent. Photo via Getty Images

Houston-based Helix Earth Technologies has closed a $12 million Seed 2 funding round to scale manufacturing of its energy-efficient commercial HVAC add-on technology. Veriten, a Houston-based energy investment firm, led the round. Rua Ventures, Carnrite Ventures, Skywriter LLC and Textbook Ventures also participated. Continue reading.

2. Chevron eyes $7B Texas power plant for Microsoft data center campus

Chevron is in talks with Microsoft and Engine No. 1 about a massive natural gas power plant in Texas. Photo via Getty Images

Software giant Microsoft is negotiating exclusively with Houston-based oil and gas titan Chevron and investment firm Engine No. 1 about the development of a $7 billion power plant in West Texas that would supply electricity for a Microsoft data center campus. Continue reading.

3. 3 strategies to strengthen the Gulf Coast as a global energy hub

The Gulf Coast is one of the most critical energy hubs in the world. Photo via Getty Images.

The Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast is the backbone of America’s energy and chemical economy. Texas produces roughly 43% of U.S. crude oil and 28% of natural gas, while Texas and Louisiana together account for about half of the nation’s refining capacity, processing 9.3 million barrels of crude per day across 50 refineries. The region also produces approximately 80% of the nation’s primary petrochemicals and ships more than $117 billion in chemical products annually from Texas alone. Continue reading.

4. 8 CERAWeek 2026 takeaways from a new Houston energy leader

Kelsey Kearns (right), the new director of Greentown Houston, shared her takeaways from her first-ever CERAWeek with Energy Capital HTX. Photo courtesy Greentown

My first CERAWeek was a blur. Having top energy executives, policymakers, and technologists all gathered in Houston—over 11,000 of them this year—was both overwhelming and energizing. The theme was “Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology, and Geopolitics,” and walking through the George R. Brown Convention Center, it was immediately clear that this was no ordinary industry conference. As a first-timer with a Greentown Labs lens, here’s what really stuck with me. Continue reading.

5. Greentown Labs names new COO, appoints new Head of Houston

Lawson Gow and Kelsey Kearns have stepped into new leadership roles at Greentown Labs. Photos courtesy Greentown/LinkedIn

Greentown Labs has reshuffled its leadership, elevating Houston leaders into new roles. Lawson Gow was named COO of the Houston- and Boston-based climatech incubator in February 2026. In his new role, he will focus on optimizing Greentown's structure, building new internal and external systems and developing a plan for growth. Continue reading.

Rice, UH launch joint effort to accelerate plastics recycling solutions

plastics partnership

Institutes at two Houston universities are joining forces to help position the city as a global leader in plastics recycling innovation.

The Center for Energy Studies (CES) at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and the University of Houston’s Energy Transition Institute (UH-ETI) have announced a strategic partnership that aims to develop real-world solutions for plastic recycling.

The universities will kick off the new initiative with the Annual Sustainability Summit: Innovations and Collaborations in Circularity & Supply Chain Resilience event April 22 at the Baker Institute.

“Houston sits at the center of the global plastics and petrochemical value chain, which makes it uniquely positioned to lead in circular solutions,” Rachel Meidl, deputy director of CES, said in a news release. “This partnership is about moving beyond theory and bringing together data, policy and industry insight to accelerate technologies and frameworks that can scale.”

The partnership—which was made official during CERAWeek—will integrate policy, economics, science and engineering. The universities will work to “share data, insights, networks and connections to advance global work in protecting the environment, economy and society,” according to a news release from Rice.

Initially, the universities will focus on evaluating scalable advanced recycling pathways, developing policy frameworks to improve plastics circularity, analyzing emerging technology and using industry stakeholders for deployment.

Plastics circularity aligns with Rice and UH’s energy transition efforts to advance a circular economy. UH's ETI recently published a white paper that analyzes how the U.S. currently handles plastics recycling and advocates for a new approach. Ramanan Krishnamoorti, author of the paper and vice president of energy and innovation at UH, said the partnership with Rice’s Baker Institute could help bring some of the ideas outlined in the paper to reality.

“Our research has shown that a uniform approach may be the best way for the U.S. to tackle plastic waste,” Krishnamoort said in a news release. “By partnering with Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, we will be better positioned to deliver real-world solutions that advance a circular plastics economy.”

Fervo Energy adds former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, other leaders to board

power players

As it prepares for a highly anticipated IPO, Houston-based geothermal power provider Fervo Energy has added four heavyweights to its board of directors.

The most notable new board member is Meg Whitman, former CEO of eBay, Hewlett-Packard, and Spring-based HPE, and former U.S. ambassador to Kenya. She joined the Fervo board as lead independent director.

One of the other high-profile new board members at Fervo is Jessica Uhl. She was chief financial officer of Shell from 2017 to 2022 and spent a little over a year as president of GE Vernova, a GE energy spinoff. She is a former board member of GE, Goldman Sachs and Shell. Today, Uhl advises investment firms on energy matters.

Another energy industry veteran, Trey Lowe, also joined the Fervo board. Lowe is senior vice president and chief technology officer at oil and gas producer Devon Energy, a Fervo investor that’s moving its headquarters from Oklahoma City to Houston. Before Devon, Lowe worked in the U.S. and Norway for Houston-based energy technology company SLB.

The fourth new director at Fervo is Robert Keehan, who spent 37 years at professional services firm PwC. He most recently was PwC’s chief global auditor and earlier was a partner in the firm’s energy practice.

Keehan and Uhl will serve as independent directors, which are non-executive governance and oversight roles, while Lowe is a non-independent director, which is a more hands-on role.

With the four new directors, Fervo has seven board members.

The arrival of the four new board members comes at a monumental time for Fervo, a provider of utility-scale geothermal energy:

“Energy markets are demanding dependable, carbon-free power at an unprecedented scale, and Fervo is uniquely positioned to supply it,” Tim Latimer, co-founder and CEO of Fervo, said in December.
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