Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

guest column

The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

------------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

From Your Site Articles

The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla plans to lay off 10 percent of workforce after dismal quarterly sales

making cuts

After reporting dismal first-quarter sales, Tesla is planning to lay off about a tenth of its workforce as it tries to cut costs, multiple media outlets reported Monday.

CEO Elon Musk detailed the plans in a memo sent to employees. The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year.

Musk's memo said that as Tesla prepares for its next phase of growth, “it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity,” The New York Times and CNBC reported. News of the layoffs was first reported by electric vehicle website Electrek.

Also Monday, two key Tesla executives announced on the social media platform X that they are leaving the company. Andrew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, wrote that he had made the decision to leave after 18 years with the company.

Rohan Patel, senior global director of public policy and business development, also wrote on X that he was leaving Tesla, after eight years.

Baglino, who held several top engineering jobs at the company and was chief technology officer, wrote that the decision to leave was difficult. “I loved tackling nearly every problem we solved as a team and feel gratified to have contributed to the mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy,” he wrote.

He has no concrete plans beyond spending more time with family and his young children, but wrote that he has difficulty staying still for long.

Musk thanked Baglino in a reply. “Few have contributed as much as you,” he wrote.

Shares of Tesla fell 4.8 percent Monday afternoon, hours after news of the layoffs and departures broke. Shares of Tesla Inc. have lost about one-third of their value so far this year as sales of electric vehicles soften.

Tesla sales fell sharply last quarter as competition increased worldwide, electric vehicle sales growth slowed, and price cuts failed to draw more buyers. The company said it delivered 386,810 vehicles from January through March, nearly 9 percent below the 423,000 it sold in the same quarter of last year.

Since last year, Tesla has cut prices as much as $20,000 on some models as it faced increasing competition and slowing demand. The price cuts caused used electric vehicle values to drop and clipped Tesla's profit margins.

The company has said it will reveal an autonomous robotaxi at an event in August.

Ad Placement 300x100

Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

Texas battery startup Base Power hits $13B valuation with $1B raise

fresh funding

Base Power, an Austin-based residential power provider with a Houston office, has raised $1 billion in a Series D round, bringing the startup’s valuation to $13 billion.

Ribbit, Addition, Valor Equity Partners, and JPMorganChase’s Strategic Investment Group led the round, with participation from Altimeter, D1 Capital Partners, Sands Capital, Coatue, Layer Global, and Energy Impact Partners. Existing investors also added to the round, including Thrive Capital, a16z, Lightspeed, Trust Ventures, and CapitalG.

Base Power, which provides residential battery backup systems that automatically turn on during outages and sells electricity to homeowners, says the funding will go toward hiring more people and expanding nationally.

Since being founded in 2023, Base Power has raised more than $2.5 billion. Base Power’s factory in Austin is already manufacturing thousands of the batteries each month.

In conjunction with the funding announcement, the startup launched Base Core, a home battery designed to support the power grid. Today, Base Core is available to homeowners in certain parts of Texas and Illinois, including the Houston area.

Zach Dell, co-founder and CEO of Base Power, said in a news release that Base Core “installs in under an hour, switches over seamlessly, is built to handle extreme weather, and delivers extended outage protection at a price Americans can afford.”

Dell is the son of Austin tech billionaire Michael Dell, founder, chairman, and CEO of Round Rock-based Dell Technologies.

In only three years, Base Power has grown its battery fleet to a capacity of more than 500 megawatt-hours, expanded beyond Texas into Illinois, and forged partnerships with utilities such as Austin Energy, El Paso Electric, and CoServ.

Antonio Gracias, founder, CEO, and chief investment officer at Valor Equity Partners, says Base Power is executing on an “ambitious plan” to become America’s power company. The startup “has emerged as one of the fastest and most cost-effective ways to add capacity to the grid,” he says.

Base Power opened its offices in Katy, Texas, in October 2025 and expanded its service to the city of Houston around the same time. Read more here.

Houston subsea firm Zupt acquired in offshore tech deal

m&a activity

Houston-based Zupt LLC, a provider of advanced metrology, inspection, and engineering services for offshore energy and renewable projects, has been acquired by Columbus, Ohio-based Rosenxt Holding USA for an undisclosed amount.

Rosenxt says the deal, which closed July 21, represents another step in its long-term strategy to build a portfolio of technology and engineering capabilities for the subsea market in the energy sector.

“Our ambition has always been to think decades ahead,” Hermann Rosen, chairman of Switzerland-based Rosenxt Group, the parent company of Rosenxt Holding USA, said in a news release.

“The future of subsea and offshore industries will be shaped by intelligent technologies that fundamentally change how critical infrastructure is explored, installed, inspected and operated,” he added. “Zupt is another important building block in this vision.”

Rosenxt says offshore operators and installation contractors face pressure to execute subsea projects more efficiently amid workforce shortages, weather concerns, tougher safety standards, and rising capital and operating expenses.

“The offshore sector continues to embrace technologies that enhance data quality, reduce operational risk, and improve decision-making across the asset lifecycle,” Houston M&A attorney Amelia Zhang, who led law firm Norton Rose Fulbright’s representation of Zupt, added in the release.

Rosenxt provides services for the subsea market that combine sensing, robotics, AI, analytics and engineering. Zupt complements those services with offerings for operations, such as high-resolution 3D inspection, digital twin generation, and inspection and engineering technologies for subs.

Zupt President Keith Vickery founded the company in 2005.

Vickery says Zupt “has focused on solving some of the subsea industry’s most demanding marine construction and inspection challenges through innovative engineering, operational experience, and close collaboration with our customers.”

Mordor Intelligence estimates the value of the subsea market will climb from $19.75 billion this year to $25.03 billion in 2031. North America represents the largest segment of the global market.

Houston energy tech company Molecule makes gas operations acquisition

software acquisition

Houston-based energy trading risk management (ETRM) software company Molecule has announced the acquisition of Dallas-based Trilogy Energy Solutions.

Molecule CEO Patrick Smith called the deal a "defining moment" for the company, as it allows Molecule's platform to expand to include physical gas operations.

“For years, this industry has drawn the ETRM box too small, creating inefficient silos by treating trading and physical operations as separate budgets and separate problems, when the real cost lives in the handoffs between them," Smith said in a news release. "Trilogy’s domain expertise in physical gas operations closes that gap. Together, we can give producers, midstream operators, and trading desks something the market has been asking for: a single, integrated view from wellhead to trading desk, without the manual reconciliation, spreadsheet workarounds, and legacy handoffs that slow the industry down.”

Trilogy, founded in 2014, is a provider of cloud-based software for the day-to-day logistics of physical natural gas operations. The platform allows users—including producers, marketers, midstream companies, pipeline operators and others—to manage activities such as pipeline nominations, gas gathering operations and more. Thus far, Molecule's platform has focused on energy trading and managing financial and commercial activities.

Through the acquisition, the combined company will now offer a full-stack enabled ETRM and energy operating system. Users of both platforms can expect continuity of service, according to the companies.

“Molecule has always been about meeting trading teams where they actually work, focused on being fast, accurate, and deeply integrated into their day-to-day workflow,” Sameer Soleja, founder and president of Molecule, added in the release. “Bringing Trilogy into the Molecule family extends that mission from the trading desk into the physical operations of the gas business. The two platforms complement each other exceedingly well, and the combined product will be able to offer all-in-one capabilities that lead the ETRM market, both in its tech-forward nature, and in its depth.”

Molecule expects the combined platform to help users reduce manual month-end close work, cut costs, and improve data accuracy and decision-making.

Trilogy's Chief Product Officer Jeremy Frye will join the Molecule team, along with others from Trilogy.

“Trilogy has spent decades building the trust of companies across the physical natural gas industry by delivering software that stands up to the demands of physical gas operations... It’s a rare combination that brings the best of both worlds, and I’m energized about what our teams will build together,” Frye added in the release.

California-based Sundance Growth, an existing investor in Molecule, supported the acquisition. The software growth equity firm raised a $125 million debut fund in 2025 and focuses on B2B SaaS companies.

Sundance led Molecule's Series B round, which closed last summer for an undisclosed amount. At the time, Soleja said the funding would allow Molecule to "double down on product innovation, grow our team, and reach even more markets."

View All Listings

ENERGYCAPITALHTX EMAILS ARE AWESOME