Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla plans to lay off 10 percent of workforce after dismal quarterly sales

making cuts

After reporting dismal first-quarter sales, Tesla is planning to lay off about a tenth of its workforce as it tries to cut costs, multiple media outlets reported Monday.

CEO Elon Musk detailed the plans in a memo sent to employees. The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year.

Musk's memo said that as Tesla prepares for its next phase of growth, “it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity,” The New York Times and CNBC reported. News of the layoffs was first reported by electric vehicle website Electrek.

Also Monday, two key Tesla executives announced on the social media platform X that they are leaving the company. Andrew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, wrote that he had made the decision to leave after 18 years with the company.

Rohan Patel, senior global director of public policy and business development, also wrote on X that he was leaving Tesla, after eight years.

Baglino, who held several top engineering jobs at the company and was chief technology officer, wrote that the decision to leave was difficult. “I loved tackling nearly every problem we solved as a team and feel gratified to have contributed to the mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy,” he wrote.

He has no concrete plans beyond spending more time with family and his young children, but wrote that he has difficulty staying still for long.

Musk thanked Baglino in a reply. “Few have contributed as much as you,” he wrote.

Shares of Tesla fell 4.8 percent Monday afternoon, hours after news of the layoffs and departures broke. Shares of Tesla Inc. have lost about one-third of their value so far this year as sales of electric vehicles soften.

Tesla sales fell sharply last quarter as competition increased worldwide, electric vehicle sales growth slowed, and price cuts failed to draw more buyers. The company said it delivered 386,810 vehicles from January through March, nearly 9 percent below the 423,000 it sold in the same quarter of last year.

Since last year, Tesla has cut prices as much as $20,000 on some models as it faced increasing competition and slowing demand. The price cuts caused used electric vehicle values to drop and clipped Tesla's profit margins.

The company has said it will reveal an autonomous robotaxi at an event in August.

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ENGIE inks deal to supply wind energy for Oracle’s Texas operations

wind deal

Houston-based renewable energy company ENGIE North America has made a deal to supply up to 568 megawatts of renewable electricity for tech giant Oracle's projects in Texas.

The power will come from ENGIE’s wind resources serving the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. Oracle is developing data centers in Abilene and Shackelford, Texas, according to its website.

The Oracle deal is part of ENGIE’s efforts to bring substantial new electricity supply to the grid. In the past six years, ENGIE has developed 12 gigawatts of new renewable generation and battery storage capacity in North Americas, equaling $11 billion in capital, according to the company.

"Our customers are looking for reliable, scalable energy solutions that can support long-term growth," Anne-Laure Chassanite, interim CEO of ENGIE North America, said in a news release. "ENGIE has invested heavily in developing new generation resources across North America, and we're pleased to support Oracle as it continues to expand its operations in Texas. These agreements reflect the strength of our portfolio and our ability to deliver customized energy solutions that help customers meet their business objectives.”

Computer technology and cloud computing company Oracle is working towards its goal to match 100 percent of AI data center electricity use with carbon-free electricity by 2035.

"Oracle is taking a responsible approach to meeting the energy needs of our growing AI and cloud operations in Texas — investing in carbon-free electricity without shifting costs to consumers," Julia Robin, head of infrastructure planning and sourcing for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, added in the release. "Our agreements with ENGIE advance Oracle's goal to match 100 percent of our AI data center electricity use with carbon-free electricity by 2035, while supporting long-term economic growth with no cost impact to the state of Texas.”

ENGIE also recently won the 2026 Green Power Leadership Award in the Market Innovation category for its work advancing 24/7 renewable energy solutions. The awards honor individuals and companies advancing sustainability and renewables in the energy industry through innovation and leadership.

The company has inked major deals to supply renewable energy to other major companies like Meta, Daikin and others.

Houston energy and innovation leaders come together at Argonne National Laboratory

The view from heti

Nearly 20 companies from Houston, ranging from global multinationals to innovative startups, joined the team at Argonne National Laboratory in Lemont, Illinois, for a full day of meetings, discussions, and networking focused on advancing innovation, commercialization, and industry collaboration.

The fly-in organized by the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, provided a unique opportunity for companies to engage directly with Argonne researchers, technical experts, and leadership while gaining a deeper understanding of the laboratory’s world-class capabilities. Participants explored how national laboratories can help bridge the gap between breakthrough research and commercial deployment, particularly in areas critical to U.S. competitiveness and economic growth.

The significance of this engagement extends beyond a single visit. While the U.S. Department of Energy operates 17 national laboratories, none is located along the Gulf Coast, a region uniquely home to industry, infrastructure, and energy systems at commercial scale. HETI’s continued work with the national laboratories helps bridge that geographic and operational gap by connecting world-class scientific research with companies that understand how to scale and deploy technologies. The Argonne fly-in also created space to address practical barriers to collaboration, including complex agreements and lengthy contracting timelines, and to explore ways to establish partnership frameworks more efficiently.

Explore HETI’s key takeaways from the fly-in:

1. Scaling Technologies for Commercial Use

A central theme was the importance of scale-up infrastructure and the role Argonne plays in helping companies reduce technical and manufacturing risks. Participants learned how facilities such as the Materials Engineering Research Facility (MERF) support the transition from laboratory discoveries to pilot-scale production and ultimately commercial manufacturing. These capabilities are especially valuable for companies working to move promising technologies from concept to market.

The discussions also highlighted Argonne’s extensive work in critical materials, battery recycling, advanced manufacturing, and supply chain resilience. Attendees learned about initiatives including the ReCell Center, AI-enabled materials discovery, and advanced modeling tools that can help businesses understand supply chain vulnerabilities and evaluate mitigation strategies. These capabilities have applications across energy, chemicals, manufacturing, semiconductors, defense, and emerging technologies.

2. Creating Pathways for Collaboration

Another key takeaway was the importance of engaging early. Companies do not need to arrive with a fully developed project or solution. Argonne offers multiple pathways for collaboration, including sponsored research, user facility access, technology licensing, pilot-scale testing, and Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs). These partnerships help companies access specialized expertise, facilities, and analytical tools that can accelerate innovation and commercialization

3. Building Connections Across Industry and Research

The fly-in reinforced the value of relationship building. Bringing together nearly 20 organizations in one place created meaningful opportunities for collaboration, knowledge sharing, and identifying future projects.

The conversations throughout the day demonstrated a shared commitment to strengthening domestic innovation, developing resilient supply chains, and creating pathways to bring new technologies to market.

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This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. Learn more about HETI’s role in advancing solutions and building partnerships to leverage Houston’s industry leadership for an energy-abundant, low-carbon future.

Fervo produces first geothermal power at flagship Utah project

energy milestone

Fervo Energy’s flagship project in Utah just generated its first geothermal power.

The electricity is now flowing to the power grid from one of Cape Station’s three generation units, Houston-based Fervo said in a news release. This represents an early but important milestone for the project, as the unit isn’t scheduled to deliver contracted power until Oct. 1.

The achievement, coming four months after Fervo’s roughly $2.2 billion IPO, demonstrates the viability of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).

“This is a gamechanger for the geothermal industry. It establishes EGS as the defining new power generation technology of our time, and we believe it shows that the commercial and technical maturity of EGS is ready to meet the urgent need for reliable, clean power,” Tim Latimer, co-founder and CEO of Fervo, said in the release.

The plant’s two other units are scheduled to launch commercial operations on Jan. 1.

The three units make up the project’s 99-megawatt first phase. The next phase, which will add 400 megawatts of capacity, is under construction. The second phase is set to go online in 2028.

Altogether, Cape Station will provide more than 4 gigawatts of capacity, with 900 megawatts already spoken for. The 900 megawatts of contracted electricity would be enough to power nearly 1 million U.S. homes per year.

“Cape Station works because we treated the subsurface like an engineering challenge,” Jack Norbeck, co-founder and chief technology officer of Fervo, added in the release. “Years of drilling, completion design, subsurface modeling, and flow testing led to this moment, and this is the validation that matters most.”

Enhanced geothermal continuously draws on heat that’s deep underground, producing electricity around the clock regardless of weather or time of day. That makes it one of the only carbon-free resources capable of constant power delivery, which is critical for data centers and AI infrastructure.

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