Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla plans to lay off 10 percent of workforce after dismal quarterly sales

making cuts

After reporting dismal first-quarter sales, Tesla is planning to lay off about a tenth of its workforce as it tries to cut costs, multiple media outlets reported Monday.

CEO Elon Musk detailed the plans in a memo sent to employees. The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year.

Musk's memo said that as Tesla prepares for its next phase of growth, “it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity,” The New York Times and CNBC reported. News of the layoffs was first reported by electric vehicle website Electrek.

Also Monday, two key Tesla executives announced on the social media platform X that they are leaving the company. Andrew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, wrote that he had made the decision to leave after 18 years with the company.

Rohan Patel, senior global director of public policy and business development, also wrote on X that he was leaving Tesla, after eight years.

Baglino, who held several top engineering jobs at the company and was chief technology officer, wrote that the decision to leave was difficult. “I loved tackling nearly every problem we solved as a team and feel gratified to have contributed to the mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy,” he wrote.

He has no concrete plans beyond spending more time with family and his young children, but wrote that he has difficulty staying still for long.

Musk thanked Baglino in a reply. “Few have contributed as much as you,” he wrote.

Shares of Tesla fell 4.8 percent Monday afternoon, hours after news of the layoffs and departures broke. Shares of Tesla Inc. have lost about one-third of their value so far this year as sales of electric vehicles soften.

Tesla sales fell sharply last quarter as competition increased worldwide, electric vehicle sales growth slowed, and price cuts failed to draw more buyers. The company said it delivered 386,810 vehicles from January through March, nearly 9 percent below the 423,000 it sold in the same quarter of last year.

Since last year, Tesla has cut prices as much as $20,000 on some models as it faced increasing competition and slowing demand. The price cuts caused used electric vehicle values to drop and clipped Tesla's profit margins.

The company has said it will reveal an autonomous robotaxi at an event in August.

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10 can't-miss events at Houston Energy and Climate Week 2026

where to be

Editor's note: Houston Energy and Climate Week returns for its third year, Sept. 12–18, with panels, happy hours, pitch days and tours focused on the energy transition.

The Ion District will host many of the week's events. Here are details on some can't-miss, signature events and how to register. Find the full schedule here. Please note: this article may be updated to add more events.

Sept. 13 — The & Awards

Kick off the week by celebrating Houston honorees leading the future of energy at the & Awards. The & Awards will honor Zay Zeidman, chairman of Houston First and managing partner of Altitude Ventures; The University of Houston's Renu Khator and Ramanan Krishnamoorti; Maryanne Maldonado, CEO of the World Affairs Council; and Fervo Energy co-founders Tim Latimer (CEO) and Jack Norbeck (CTO). The inaugural posthumous Lifetime Ambassador Award will honor former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, and this year’s Allies in Energy grant recipients will also be recognized. The evening will include a fireside chat, an immersive gallery, live music, passed hors d'oeuvres, Champagne and plenty of networking opportunities.

This event is Sunday, Sept. 13, from 6-9 p.m. at ARTECHOUSE Houston. Register here.

Sept. 14 — Brews on the Bayou

Head to Saint Arnold Brewery for a more laid-back kickoff event. Grab a beer and take in a live conversation with Paul Hobby, managing director of Genesis Park, and Katie Mehnert, CEO of The Bee Suite and co-founder of HECW. Rice University's Aaron Pomerantz will moderate the discussion. Then hear a live performance from AY Young.

This event is Monday, Sept. 14, from 6-9 p.m. at Saint Arnold Brewery. Register here.

Sept. 14–18 — Sip For Sustainability

Enjoy a signature cocktail at five H Town Restaurant Group spots each night of Houston Energy and Climate Week. A portion of every purchase will go toward Allies in Energy, which supports education, collaboration, and community programs that drive a more sustainable future. Participating eateries include Hugo's, Xochi, Uber, Zaranda and Caracol.

These events begin Monday, Sept. 14, from 3-5 p.m. Find more information on each day's happy hour here.

Sept. 15 — HTX Tech Tours

HECW will present two Tech Tours this year, offering attendees a closer look at the region's climatech scene. The Metro Innovation Tour & Market will visit Sugar Land Town Square, Shell Technology Center Houston, SLB West Houston Campus, University of Houston at Sugar Land, Ambrosia Space, NanoTech Materials and Syzygy Plasmonics. The Bay City South Innovation Tour will visit Sugar Land Town Square and Erthos Project Bravo in Matagorda County. Both tours will head to Astros Night at Daikin Park to wrap up the day.

These events are Tuesday, Sept. 15. Find more information here.

Sept. 15 — Meet the Activate Houston Cohort 2026 Fellows

Meet Activate's latest cohort, which was named this summer, and learn more about their hardtech and climate-focused solutions. Also meet founders from the organization’s 2025 cohort during Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 15, from 5-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Sept. 15 – Cypher Pilotathon and Startup Showcase

Grab coffee and take in keynotes and panels featuring leaders from Amperon, Aramco Ventures, New Climate Ventures, Syzygy Plasmonics and many others during this signature event, this year under the theme “The NEW Energy Industrial Revolution.” After lunch, hear pitches from 31 ventures during the Pilotathon. This year's event will also feature a startup showcase with interactive booths where attendees can meet founders and see demonstrations, plus an industry hub where corporates and investors can engage with emerging technologies and identify the pilots they want to move forward with.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 15, from 9 a.m.-5 p.m. at POST Houston. Get tickets here.

Sept. 15 — Houston Astros Energy Night

Catch a game and chat with fellow clean energy enthusiasts during Houston Astros Energy Night. The 'Stros take on the Kansas City Royals. A bonus? Dollar Hot Dog Night at Daikin Park.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 15, starting at 7:10 p.m. at Daikin Park. Get tickets here.

Sept. 16 — Greentown Labs Climatech Summit

Entrepreneurs, investors, corporate leaders, policymakers and philanthropists will head to Houston this month for the annual Greentown Climatetech Summit. Hear from Greentown CEO Georgina Campbell Flatter and keynote speaker Tim Latimer, CEO and co-founder of Houston geothermal unicorn Fervo Energy, plus numerous other engaging panels at the Ion. Then head to Greentown Labs for an open house and startup showcase, where attendees can meet some of the climatech incubators' members, before taking in the startup pitch competition followed by happy hour over at the Continental Club.

This event is Wednesday, Sept. 16, from 8 a.m.–9 p.m. at multiple locations. Register here.

Sept. 17 — Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum

Hear from clean energy startups from around the world at the 23rd annual Energy Tech Venture Forum. In addition to the pitches, this event will also host keynotes from Sean Maher, chief economist at Phillips 66, and Ira Ehrenpreis, founder and managing partner of DBL Partner. Panels will focus on technologies, infrastructure and commercialization strategies needed to deploy breakthrough innovations at scale. Following the event, the Rice Alliance will also name its annual “Most Promising” startup.

This event is Thursday, Sept. 17, from 7:30 a.m.-5 p.m. at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business. Register here.

Sept. 18 — Halliburton Labs Finalists Pitch Day

Hear from Halliburton Labs' latest cohort of entrepreneurs. The incubator aims to advance the companies’ commercialization with support from Halliburton's network, facilities and financing opportunities. Its latest cohort includes one company from Texas.

This event is Friday, Sept. 18, from 8 a.m.-noon at The Ion. Register here.

UH report says CO2 technology could unlock 137B barrels of U.S. oil

oil recovery

A new report from the University of Houston estimates that a method known as carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) could recover roughly 137 billion barrels of U.S. oil—with Texas and the Gulf Coast poised to play a major role.

A UH Energy-produced white paper, titled “Revitalization of Mature Oil Fields: Opportunities and Challenges of CO2-EOR,” looks at how CO2-EOR could increase U.S. energy supply, reduce carbon emissions and lower the carbon intensity of oil production.

CO2-EOR injects pressurized carbon dioxide into mature oil wells to loosen and push oil trapped underground toward the production wells, allowing operators to extract oil typically left behind. The process permanently stores some CO2 underground, reducing carbon emissions and carbon intensity.

“Injected CO2 works to revitalize mature oil fields by reducing oil viscosity, improving sweep efficiency and restoring reservoir pressure, resulting in incremental oil production beyond primary and secondary recovery,” the report reads. “CO2-EOR also supports permanent carbon storage and by virtue of this will produce uniquely low-carbon intensity oil for global markets.”

Authored by Charles McConnell, executive director of UH's Center for Carbon Management in Energy, and Zhiyuan Li, a UH petroleum engineering doctoral candidate, the paper says that much of the opportunity lies right under the feet of Texas oil companies.

Texas and the Gulf Coast, including its offshore resources, have half of the nation's oil resources considered favorable for the CO2-EOR technology, the report says. According to UH, conventional U.S. oil reservoirs contain 624 billion barrels, with 434 billion barrels still underground, including about 20 billion barrels of proven reserves.

Still, the paper argues that the economics behind CO2-EOR need to be considered. The process’ success depends on a number of factors, including costs of carbon capture, field redevelopment, operations, monitoring, transportation and available tax incentives, according to UH.

Logistically, developing CO2-EOR operations out of older wells and infrastructure presents pros and cons. While using older wells can be more economical, aging infrastructure may require more frequent monitoring, inspection, repair or re-plugging, according to UH.

Ultimately, the report recommends focusing CO2-EOR development on mature oil fields with existing infrastructure, well-understood geology and reliable CO2 supplies. This approach, UH says, could help extend the productive life of existing oil fields while supporting “lower carbon intensity oil for global markets and a significant contribution to energy security.”

Read the full report here.

Amazon's EV robotaxi service Zook is set to arrive in Houston

EV News

Amazon-owned electric robotaxi ride-hailing service Zoox is zooming into Houston in September.

Initially, self-driving retrofitted SUVs with safety drivers on board will serve downtown Houston, centrally located tourist hotspots, and certain residential neighborhoods. The SUVs will test Houston roads before Zoox rolls out autonomous robotaxis, the company says.

Zoox takes Houston for a test drive

At the outset, Zoox says, a limited number of vehicles will be driven by people to gather data about Houston roads.

“This helps create a detailed picture of each street, from road geometry to traffic lights,” the company says. “Once we have mapped out an area, we will test autonomous driving capabilities. Safety and operational readiness govern the pace of our rollout.”

Zoox says its robotaxi differs from vehicles operated by other ride-hailing services.

The all-electric robotaxi “is purpose-built for autonomous ride-hailing and designed for riders from day one,” the company says. “It has no traditional driving controls and instead has carriage-style seating, sliding glass doors, and features that let the rider personalize their journey.”

To help manage the fleet, Zoox plans to open a depot in Houston for vehicle charging and maintenance, a representative says via email.

Along with Houston, Zoox is launching this month in San Diego. The ride-hailing service already operates in Austin, Dallas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.

Zoox breaks into “sprawling” Houston market

Zoox describes Houston as its “most sprawling market to date.”

“Driving here means navigating complex service-road networks, unique merging scenarios, and challenging environmental conditions, including severe heat, heavy rain, and urban flooding,” the company says. “It’s a rigorous test of our technology across geography and terrain.”

Zoox will join two other autonomous ride-hailing services in Houston:

Waymo began rolling in Houston in February. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, owns Waymo.
Electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla began offering robotaxi services earlier this year.

A third Zoox competitor is arriving within the next year. A partnership comprising rideshare provider Uber, EV manufacturer Lucid, and autonomous technology company Nuro plans to launch a robotaxi service in Houston by mid-2027.

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This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

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