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Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

  • "Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
  • "The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
  • "Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

  • EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
  • EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
  • In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla plans to lay off 10 percent of workforce after dismal quarterly sales

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After reporting dismal first-quarter sales, Tesla is planning to lay off about a tenth of its workforce as it tries to cut costs, multiple media outlets reported Monday.

CEO Elon Musk detailed the plans in a memo sent to employees. The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year.

Musk's memo said that as Tesla prepares for its next phase of growth, “it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity,” The New York Times and CNBC reported. News of the layoffs was first reported by electric vehicle website Electrek.

Also Monday, two key Tesla executives announced on the social media platform X that they are leaving the company. Andrew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, wrote that he had made the decision to leave after 18 years with the company.

Rohan Patel, senior global director of public policy and business development, also wrote on X that he was leaving Tesla, after eight years.

Baglino, who held several top engineering jobs at the company and was chief technology officer, wrote that the decision to leave was difficult. “I loved tackling nearly every problem we solved as a team and feel gratified to have contributed to the mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy,” he wrote.

He has no concrete plans beyond spending more time with family and his young children, but wrote that he has difficulty staying still for long.

Musk thanked Baglino in a reply. “Few have contributed as much as you,” he wrote.

Shares of Tesla fell 4.8 percent Monday afternoon, hours after news of the layoffs and departures broke. Shares of Tesla Inc. have lost about one-third of their value so far this year as sales of electric vehicles soften.

Tesla sales fell sharply last quarter as competition increased worldwide, electric vehicle sales growth slowed, and price cuts failed to draw more buyers. The company said it delivered 386,810 vehicles from January through March, nearly 9 percent below the 423,000 it sold in the same quarter of last year.

Since last year, Tesla has cut prices as much as $20,000 on some models as it faced increasing competition and slowing demand. The price cuts caused used electric vehicle values to drop and clipped Tesla's profit margins.

The company has said it will reveal an autonomous robotaxi at an event in August.

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Houston Methodist leader on the push for sustainable health care and new local event

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Every industry can play a role in the energy transition, and Houston Methodist is leading the charge in the health care sector.

Culminating at this week’s inaugural Green ICU Conference, part of Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week, the health care system has spent the last three years taking a closer look at its environmental footprint—and showing other hospital systems and medical organizations how they too can make simple changes to reduce emissions.

The event, held tomorrow, Sept. 17, at TMC Helix Park, will bring together health care professionals, industry leaders, policymakers and innovators to explore solutions for building a more sustainable healthcare system.

In an interview with EnergyCapital, Dr. Faisal N. Masud, medical director of critical care at Houston Methodist and a champion for sustainability efforts across the system, shares the inspiration behind the event and what attendees can expect to take away.

Tell us about how the Green ICU Conference came to be.

Houston Methodist’s inaugural Green ICU conference is about three years in the making. It originated because Houston Methodist recognized the significant impact health care has on sustainability and the lack of similar initiatives in the U.S.

The Center for Critical Care at Houston Methodist launched a sustainability-focused ICU initiative, published a roadmap and became involved in international efforts to develop guidelines that many other organizations now use. Our work led to the creation of the first Green ICU Collaborative in the country, and the Green ICU Conference was established to share best practices and address the global impact of critical care on the environment.

What were some of the biggest takeaways from the collaborative, and how are they represented in this new event?

Through the Green ICU Collaborative, we’ve seen that health care professionals can make a significant impact on sustainability through simple, practical changes, and many solutions can be implemented without major costs or compromising patient care. Additionally, there’s a strong link between environmental stewardship and patient safety and quality. These lessons will be represented in the new Green ICU Conference by showcasing easy-to-adopt best practices, emphasizing the importance of sustainability in daily health care operations, and fostering a sense of shared responsibility among attendees to improve both patient outcomes and environmental impact.

Why are ICUs considered to be such carbon hot spots?

ICUs are considered carbon hot spots because they care for the sickest patients, requiring intensive therapies, numerous medications and a large amount of equipment, such as ventilators and pumps. This makes them the most resource- and energy-intensive areas in a hospital. A single day in the ICU can have a greenhouse gas impact equivalent to driving a car 1,000 kilometers.

The U.S. health care sector is responsible for approximately 8.5 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, and hospitals are the second-most energy-intensive commercial buildings in the country. With the Texas Medical Center being in the heart of Houston, it’s critical that health care organizations play a role in this area.

That’s why the Center for Critical Care launched a system-wide Green ICU Initiative with the Houston Methodist Office of Sustainability to help reduce our carbon impact and waste while continuing to provide unparalleled patient care. Innovation is part of our culture, and that extends into our sustainability efforts. Houston Methodist’s Green ICU initiative is the first-of-its-kind in the U.S.

What efforts has Houston Methodist taken to cut emissions?

The first step to cutting emissions is measuring an organization’s carbon footprint to determine the best path forward. Houston Methodist’s Office of Sustainability has aggregated two years of baseline emissions data pending third-party validation. The hospital has taken several steps to cut emissions, including implementing composting programs, installing solar panels, improving energy utilization and participating in global plastic recycling initiatives. These efforts are part of a broader commitment led by our Office of Sustainability to reduce the hospital’s environmental footprint.

Tell us a little more about the event. Who should attend? What do you expect to be some of the highlights?

The Green ICU Conference, taking place during Houston Energy and Climate Week, is focused on health care sustainability, bringing together health care professionals, engineers, experts and anyone interested in reducing health care’s environmental impact. With participants and speakers from six countries, the conference brings together leading experts who aim to raise awareness, share best practices and offer practical, easy-to-adopt solutions for making health care more sustainable.

Highlights include perspectives from leading voices in health care sustainability, real-world examples of successful sustainability initiatives and opportunities for networking and collaboration. Anyone interested in health care, sustainability,or making a positive impact in their community should consider attending.

And, because of increasing interest, we’ve opened up the opportunity for attendees to join virtually at no cost or in person.

What do you hope attendees take away? What are your major goals for the event?

The main goals of hosting the Green ICU Conference for the first time are to raise awareness about the environmental impact of health care; engage and empower attendees to implement easy, practical sustainability solutions; and foster a sense of shared community and responsibility.

I hope attendees leave the event feeling motivated and equipped to make meaningful changes in their own practices, whether that’s improving patient care, supporting their colleagues, or leaving their organization and environment in a better place for future generations.

Texas House Democrats urge Trump administration to restore $250M solar grant

solar grants

Eight Democratic members of the U.S. House from Texas, including two from Houston, are calling on the Trump administration to restore a nearly $250 million solar energy grant for Texas that’s being slashed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

In a letter to Lee Zeldin, head of the EPA, and Russell Vought, director of the federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the House members urged the two officials to reinstate the nearly $250 million grant, which was awarded to Texas under the $7 billion Biden-era Solar for All program. The Texas grant was designed to assist 28,000 low-income households in installing solar panels, aiming to reduce their energy bills.

“This administration has improperly withheld billions in congressionally appropriated funding that was intended to benefit everyday Americans,” the letter stated.

The letter claimed that numerous court rulings have determined the EPA cannot repeal already allocated funding.

“Congress made a commitment to families, small businesses, and communities across this country to lower their utility bills and reduce harmful pollution through investments in clean energy. The Solar for All program was part of that commitment, and the EPA’s actions to rescind this funding effectively undermine that congressional intent,” the House members wrote.

The six House members who signed the letter are:

  • U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia of Houston
  • U.S. Rep. Al Green of Houston
  • U.S. Rep. Greg Casar of Austin
  • U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas
  • U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Austin
  • U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson of Dallas
  • U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth

The nearly $250 million grant was awarded last year to the Harris County-led Texas Solar for All Coalition.

In a post on the X social media platform, Zeldin said the recently passed “One Big Beautiful Bill” killed the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which would have financed the $7 billion Solar for All program.

“The bottom line is this: EPA no longer has the statutory authority to administer the program or the appropriated funds to keep this boondoggle alive,” Zeldin said.

Big developments for Fervo, Hertha, Oxy, and more energy news to know

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Editor's note: There have been major developments in the local energy transition sector in September, including big funding for Hertha Metals, a powerful partnership for Fervo, and a launch on the horizon for Oxy. Below are the five most-read EnergyCaptialHTX stories from September 1-14.

1. Houston-area sustainable steel company emerges from stealth with $17M in VC funding

U.S. Rep. Morgan Luttrell, a Magnolia Republican, and Hertha Metals founder and CEO Laureen Meroueh toured Hertha’s Conroe plant in August. Photo courtesy Hertha Metals/Business Wire.

Conroe-based Hertha Metals, a producer of substantial steel, has hauled in more than $17 million in venture capital from Khosla Ventures, Breakthrough Energy Fellows, Pear VC, Clean Energy Ventures and other investors. The money has been put toward the construction and the launch of its 1-metric-ton-per-day pilot plant in Conroe, where its breakthrough in steelmaking has been undergoing tests. The company uses a single-step process that it claims is cheaper, more energy-efficient and equally as scalable as conventional steelmaking methods. The plant is fueled by natural gas or hydrogen. Continue reading.

2. Fervo Energy selects Baker Hughes to supply geothermal tech for power plants

Fervo Energy has tapped Baker Hughes to supply technology to five power plants at Cape Station, its flagship geothermal power generation project in Utah. Photo courtesy Fervo Energy.

Houston-based geothermal energy startup Fervo Energy has tapped Houston-based energy technology company Baker Hughes to supply geothermal equipment for five Fervo power plants in Utah. The equipment will be installed at Fervo’s Cape Station geothermal power project near Milford, Utah. The project’s five second-phase, 60-megawatt plants will generate about 400 megawatts of clean energy for the grid. Financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. Continue reading.

3. Oxy's $1.3B Texas carbon capture facility on track to​ launch this year

Vicki Hollub, president and CEO of Occidental, said the company's Stratos DAC project is on track to begin capturing CO2 later this year. Photo via 1pointfive.com

Houston-based Occidental Petroleum is gearing up to start removing CO2 from the atmosphere at its $1.3 billion direct air capture (DAC) project in the Midland-Odessa area. Vicki Hollub, president and CEO of Occidental, said during the company’s recent second-quarter earnings call that the Stratos project — being developed by carbon capture and sequestration subsidiary 1PointFive — is on track to begin capturing CO2 later this year. Continue reading.

4. Houston foundation doles out $700K for Texas chemical research

The Welch Foundation has awarded funding through two of its newest grant programs. Photo via Getty Images.

Houston-based The Welch Foundation has issued $700,000 in additional funding to support chemical research through two of its newest grant programs. The foundation has named the recipients of its Welch eXperimental (WelchX) Collaboration Retreat and Pilot Grants and the Welch Postdoctoral Fellows of the Life Sciences Research Foundation Grants. The WelchX grants were awarded to teams of two Texas researchers who presented "innovative and collaborative ideas" addressing challenges in the clean energy space, according to the foundation. Continue reading.

5. 10+ Houston energy transition events to attend in September 2025

The 22nd annual Energy Tech Venture Forum takes place September 18. Photo courtesy of Rice

September is full of must-attend energy transition events. Get the details on the top energy happenings in September 2025, and begin registering today (some of the largest events happen this week). Continue reading.

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