ADVERTISEABOUT USSUBMIT A STORYSUBSCRIBETERMS OF USEPRIVACY POLICY
Visit our family of Brands

Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

guest column

The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

  • "Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
  • "The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
  • "Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

  • EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
  • EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
  • In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

------------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

From Your Site Articles
The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year. Photo courtesy of Tesla

Tesla plans to lay off 10 percent of workforce after dismal quarterly sales

making cuts

After reporting dismal first-quarter sales, Tesla is planning to lay off about a tenth of its workforce as it tries to cut costs, multiple media outlets reported Monday.

CEO Elon Musk detailed the plans in a memo sent to employees. The layoffs could affect about 14,000 of the 140,473 workers employed by the Austin, Texas, company at the end of last year.

Musk's memo said that as Tesla prepares for its next phase of growth, “it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity,” The New York Times and CNBC reported. News of the layoffs was first reported by electric vehicle website Electrek.

Also Monday, two key Tesla executives announced on the social media platform X that they are leaving the company. Andrew Baglino, senior vice president of powertrain and energy engineering, wrote that he had made the decision to leave after 18 years with the company.

Rohan Patel, senior global director of public policy and business development, also wrote on X that he was leaving Tesla, after eight years.

Baglino, who held several top engineering jobs at the company and was chief technology officer, wrote that the decision to leave was difficult. “I loved tackling nearly every problem we solved as a team and feel gratified to have contributed to the mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy,” he wrote.

He has no concrete plans beyond spending more time with family and his young children, but wrote that he has difficulty staying still for long.

Musk thanked Baglino in a reply. “Few have contributed as much as you,” he wrote.

Shares of Tesla fell 4.8 percent Monday afternoon, hours after news of the layoffs and departures broke. Shares of Tesla Inc. have lost about one-third of their value so far this year as sales of electric vehicles soften.

Tesla sales fell sharply last quarter as competition increased worldwide, electric vehicle sales growth slowed, and price cuts failed to draw more buyers. The company said it delivered 386,810 vehicles from January through March, nearly 9 percent below the 423,000 it sold in the same quarter of last year.

Since last year, Tesla has cut prices as much as $20,000 on some models as it faced increasing competition and slowing demand. The price cuts caused used electric vehicle values to drop and clipped Tesla's profit margins.

The company has said it will reveal an autonomous robotaxi at an event in August.

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

Houston startup secures $5M to turn oilfield wastewater into critical minerals

fresh funding

Houston-based startup Altillion has secured $5 million in seed funding to accelerate the commercialization of its proprietary IRIS and ALIX technologies, which convert oilfield-produced water into valuable minerals.

San Francisco-based EIC Rose Rock and Houston-based Flathead Forge led the round. Altillion says the funding will go toward pilot facilities and commercial deployments as the company looks to scale in the U.S.

“Altillion’s efficient and scalable technologies are needed more than ever to reshape critical mineral recovery and facilitate beneficial use of oilfield brines,” Jay Keener, Altillion’s CEO and co-founder, said in a news release. “We’re uniquely positioned to provide a stable, domestic supply of the critical minerals needed for electronics, batteries, healthcare and national defense technologies. This investment from EIC Rose Rock and Flathead Forge enables us to strategically accelerate this impact and is very timely given the current geopolitical dynamics.”

Altillion's IRIS and ALIX platforms extract minerals like iodine, lithium and copper from oilfield-produced water, geothermal brines and salars. This process allows companies to unlock new sources of revenue while also boosting the domestic critical minerals supply chain. The company announced earlier this summer that it will launch a feasibility project in the Permian Basin and aims to develop a path to commercial-scale implementation in the field.

“We are excited to partner with Altillion to scale and deploy these world-class technologies to access the vast wealth hidden in wastewater,” David Clouse, Managing Director of EIC Rose Rock, added in the release. “With Altillion, we’re expanding our ability to empower the energy industry to domestically source the critical minerals America needs for a robust economy and supply chain.”

Altillion was founded by Keener and COO Scott Buckwald in 2023. Keener previously founded KDH Trading, where Buckwald also serves as COO, according to his LinkedIn page.

Houston's KBR to provide tech for Singapore SAF plant

SAF agreement

Houston engineering and technology contractor KBR has been picked as the technology provider for what’s expected to be Asia's first commercial-scale ethanol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant.

The proposed plant on Jurong Island in Singapore is being developed by Keppel Ltd.’s Infrastructure Division and Aster Chemicals and Energy. KBR will provide technology licensing and Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) services based on its PureSAF technology.

The plant has a planned production capacity of up to 100,000 tons of SAF per year. The plant is subject to final investment decisions and regulatory approvals.

“We are looking forward to working with Keppel and Aster on this key project and to support Singapore’s ambition of becoming Asia’s leading SAF hub and advancing the ongoing efforts to decarbonize the country’s aviation ecosystem,” Stuart Bradie, KBR president and CEO, said in a news release.

According to KBR, its PureSAF Technology can process multiple feedstocks like bioethanol, syngas, carbon dioxide and hydrogen and convert them to SAF, diesel and gasoline.

The technology was developed by Swedish Biofuels AB and commercialized by KBR.

“KBR’s PureSAF is a feedstock-flexible, bankable technology that is designed to deliver a 100% drop in jet fuel, ready to power aircraft without blending,” Bradie added in the news release. “We are constantly innovating our SAF solution to make it compatible with feedstock availability in different regions and to enable the aviation industry to transition to low-carbon jet fuel with a cost-optimized approach.

KBR has also entered into a memorandum of intent with Keppel’s Infrastructure Division, which states that the companies will collaborate again on decarbonization efforts across biofuels, plastic recycling, digitalization via AI, and SAF.

KBR announced in October that it would spin off its Mission Technology Solutions business, nicknamed SpinCo. The scaled-down KBR, nicknamed RemainCo, would concentrate solely on sustainability technology and services designed to reduce carbon emissions and support energy transition efforts. SpinCo named its new CEO and CFO earlier this month.

Houston energy expert discusses why hydrogen still has a future

Guets Column

Not long ago, hydrogen was hailed as the next big thing in clean energy. Investors poured in, and countries from Japan to Germany built ambitious hydrogen strategies. It wasn’t a new discovery; hydrogen has been used for over a century in refineries and fertilizers, but it suddenly found itself reborn as the world began working toward decarbonization.

When hydrogen burns, the only byproduct is water. Green hydrogen, produced with renewable power, could replace fossil fuels in everything from trucks to ships to steel mills. But the momentum has cooled. Costs remain stubbornly high, several projects have been delayed or canceled, and policy support has wavered. In the U.S., a change in administration has created uncertainty. In Europe, some governments are slowing funding or revising hydrogen mandates. Even the International Maritime Organization (IMO) recently postponed a key vote on fuel-carbon standards.

Yet as Mike Graff , former Chairman and CEO of American Air Liquide, said in an Energy Forum episode with Ed Emmett at Rice University’s Baker Institute, “The world is always looking to make sure that energy is first available, it’s affordable, and then it’s clean. And I see hydrogen over time evolving in that manner.” He also noted that “companies have produced hydrogen and utilized hydrogen for over 100 years, and they’ve done that very safely… I think we can continue that moving forward.”

China has doubled down on hydrogen as part of its industrial strategy, building massive electrolyzer manufacturing capacity and funding dozens of pilot projects across transportation and heavy industry. Japan and South Korea also stand out as examples of how sustained policy support can drive hydrogen progress.

Where Hydrogen Fits Today

To understand hydrogen’s role now, it helps to remember what it actually does. About 76 percent of global hydrogen is produced from natural gas and used in refineries, fertilizer plants, and chemical production. This so-called “gray hydrogen” is essential but carbon-intensive.

What’s new is the rise of low-carbon hydrogen, “blue” hydrogen made from natural gas with carbon capture, and “green” hydrogen produced by splitting water with renewable electricity. These methods are expensive, but they’re growing. According to the International Energy Agency, global low-emissions hydrogen output rose about 10 percent in 2024.

Hydrogen is also expanding beyond industry. As Graff explained, it already powers thousands of forklifts in warehouses across the U.S. and is beginning to appear in commercial trucking, locomotives, and even aviation prototypes. “You can now drive 600 to 800 miles on a hydrogen fuel-cell truck,” he noted, “and refuel in 30 minutes, just like you would refill for diesel.”

The Cost Challenge and a Gulf Coast Opportunity

So why the slowdown? One word: economics.

Even with generous tax credits, green hydrogen can cost two to three times more than conventional fuels. Electrolyzers are still expensive, though costs are falling as Chinese suppliers introduce low-cost alternatives.

Infrastructure is another hurdle. Pipelines, storage, and fueling networks need to be built from scratch.

But those same challenges point to opportunity, especially along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The region already has one of the world’s largest hydrogen pipeline systems and a well-established energy infrastructure. Texas, in particular, has a head start. It already hosts nearly 1,000 miles of hydrogen pipelines, about 64 percent of the U.S. total, and some of the world’s largest hydrogen storage sites at Moss Bluff, Spindletop, and Clemens. Out of 140 hydrogen plants operating nationwide, 43 are in Texas, supported by extensive refining and natural gas infrastructure. This combination of assets gives the Gulf Coast an unmatched foundation to scale low-carbon hydrogen and integrate production, storage, and end use across industries.

As Ken Medlock , Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, explains in his report: Developing a Robust Hydrogen Market in Texas, Texas has all the critical elements needed to lead in a low-carbon hydrogen economy, including existing infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and proximity to industrial demand centers. That combination gives it a distinct advantage in scaling up hydrogen production and use.

Governments around the world are showing renewed confidence in hydrogen. The European Commission awarded nearly €3 billion to 13 major projects, while Japan and South Korea continue expanding fueling networks. China is leading one of the most ambitious buildouts, with more than 50 planned hydrogen projects and a rapidly growing fleet of fuel-cell vehicles. Despite recent setbacks, global investment has surpassed $100 billion, and projects in places such as Chile, where strong renewables and low-cost Chinese equipment help make projects feasible, are moving toward final investment decisions.

What Comes Next

Hydrogen’s future won’t depend on replacing every fuel, but on filling the gaps where batteries and biofuels fall short.

Transportation: This is where momentum is strongest today. Batteries dominate cars, but hydrogen fuel cells excel in heavy trucks, ships, and planes. As Graff noted, “You can design a commercial vehicle with the same utility as diesel but powered by hydrogen.” Airbus and Boeing are testing hydrogen propulsion concepts, and several ports are experimenting with hydrogen bunkering for cargo ships.

Industry: Steel, cement, and chemicals account for a quarter of global emissions. Hydrogen-based direct-reduced-iron (DRI) steelmaking is being piloted in Europe and Asia and could transform how these materials are produced at scale.

Storage: Hydrogen can store energy for days or weeks, serving as backup for renewables like wind and solar. But storage remains very costly and may only prove viable for the “last mile” of greenhouse gas reduction or grid stability.

These uses may sound niche, but that’s how technologies scale. They start small, gain an economic foothold, and expand as costs decline.

Conclusion

Hydrogen's early, perhaps irrational, exuberance may have cooled, but amidst the rubble of cancelled projects are the beginnings of an industry that could play a vital niche role on the journey towards a lower carbon intensity energy future. As costs fall and infrastructure around the world expands, hydrogen's role will expand into the nooks and crannies of the energy industry.

It won't replace every fuel, but it doesn't have to. Success will come from steady, project-by-project progress.

-----------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

View All Listings