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Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

  • "Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
  • "The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
  • "Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

  • EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
  • EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
  • In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Mitsubishi, ExxonMobil announce low-carbon ammonia production partnership in Baytown

dream team

Spring-based ExxonMobil has teamed up with Japan’s Mitsubishi to potentially produce low-carbon ammonia and nearly carbon-free hydrogen at ExxonMobil’s facility in Baytown.

ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia.

“We look forward to furthering our leadership position, alongside Mitsubishi Corporation, to advance low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia globally, helping the world achieve a lower emission future,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The ammonia would be shipped to Japan for power generation, process heating, and other industrial purposes. In conjunction with this project, Mitsubishi would convert part of a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) terminal into an ammonia terminal. The Japanese conglomerate plans to partner with Japanese petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan for ammonia purchases and a joint equity stake in the Baytown project.

The Baytown project is expected to generate as much as one billion cubic square feet of low-carbon hydrogen per day and more than one million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year.

A financial decision on the project is set for 2025, with the project coming online in 2029.

“We are excited to be closely collaborating with ExxonMobil to develop low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia supply chains that will bridge the United States and Japan,” says Masaru Saito, CEO of Mitsubishi’s Environmental Energy Group. “Together, we will lead this joint initiative to assist in the acceleration of the hard-to-abate sectors’ transition to clean energy.”

The project’s first phase is targeted to produce more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum of low-carbon ammonia by the end of 2027. Photo via Houston.org

4 energy companies join forces on low-carbon ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel

team work

Four companies from all around the world have agreed to work on a large-scale, low-carbon ammonia production and export project on the Houston Ship Channel.

Tokyo-based INPEX Corporation, Paris-based Air Liquide Group, Oklahoma City-based LSB Industries Inc., and Houston-based Vopak Moda Houston LLC have agreed to collaborate on the project, which is expected to deliver its first phase by the end of 2027 with the production of more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of low-carbon ammonia.

“As we approach the achievement of our net zero target by 2050, the unveiling of our low carbon ammonia project in Texas, USA, stands as a momentous testament to INPEX's strong commitment to environmental leadership," INPEX President and CEO Takayuki Ueda says in a news release. "This innovative endeavor marks a significant milestone to create a clean fuel supply chain for a sustainable future.

"By harnessing the power of cutting-edge technologies and collaborative partnerships with Air Liquide, LSB and Vopak Moda, we are accelerating the transition to a low-carbon world, while solidifying our position as a pioneer in energy transformation and a responsible global energy player,” he continues.

Earlier this year, the project completed a feasibility study. Each of the companies will collaborate in various capacities, according to the release, including: Air Liquide and INPEX partnering on low-carbon hydrogen production with their respective technologies; LSB and INPEX collaborating on low-carbon ammonia production, with LSB selecting the ammonia loop technology provider, the pre-FEED, and the engineering, procurement and construction of the facility and LSB overseeing day-to-day operations; INPEX and LSB would sell the low-carbon ammonia and finalize off-take agreements; and Vopak Moda, which currently operates ammonia storage and handling infrastructure, will maintain its ownership of the existing infrastructure and future storage built.

“This project is well aligned with our strategy to become a leader in the global energy transition through the production of low-carbon ammonia,” Mark Behrman, LSB Industries president and CEO, says in the statement. “As a long-standing, highly experienced nitrogen producer and developer of nitrogen production facilities, we are uniquely positioned to play a key role in a critical element of this project by overseeing the design, construction and operation of the ammonia loop."

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Fervo produces first geothermal power at flagship Utah project

energy milestone

Fervo Energy’s flagship project in Utah just generated its first geothermal power.

The electricity is now flowing to the power grid from one of Cape Station’s three generation units, Houston-based Fervo said in a news release. This represents an early but important milestone for the project, as the unit isn’t scheduled to deliver contracted power until Oct. 1.

The achievement, coming four months after Fervo’s roughly $2.2 billion IPO, demonstrates the viability of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).

“This is a gamechanger for the geothermal industry. It establishes EGS as the defining new power generation technology of our time, and we believe it shows that the commercial and technical maturity of EGS is ready to meet the urgent need for reliable, clean power,” Tim Latimer, co-founder and CEO of Fervo, said in the release.

The plant’s two other units are scheduled to launch commercial operations on Jan. 1.

The three units make up the project’s 99-megawatt first phase. The next phase, which will add 400 megawatts of capacity, is under construction. The second phase is set to go online in 2028.

Altogether, Cape Station will provide more than 4 gigawatts of capacity, with 900 megawatts already spoken for. The 900 megawatts of contracted electricity would be enough to power nearly 1 million U.S. homes per year.

“Cape Station works because we treated the subsurface like an engineering challenge,” Jack Norbeck, co-founder and chief technology officer of Fervo, added in the release. “Years of drilling, completion design, subsurface modeling, and flow testing led to this moment, and this is the validation that matters most.”

Enhanced geothermal continuously draws on heat that’s deep underground, producing electricity around the clock regardless of weather or time of day. That makes it one of the only carbon-free resources capable of constant power delivery, which is critical for data centers and AI infrastructure.

Expert: Houston Energy and Climate Week showcases a city building the future

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While hundreds of thousands descend on New York for Climate Week, Houston offered a different proposition: come where the work is being built. And last week Houston proved that it’s solving for more energy and fewer emissions; reliability and affordability; speed and durability. We are solving for the “&.”

That equation sharpened last week. On Sept. 14, the Environmental Protection Agency announced it had repealed most 2024 federal carbon-pollution standards for power plants and proposed rescinding remaining greenhouse-gas requirements. Policy matters, but it can pivot. The need to build does not.

HECW is a proving ground, not another conference stop. As I wrote in the Houston Chronicle, Mayor Sylvester Turner planted the seed by insisting we bring people together across the city and industry to drive Houston’s energy future. He knew false choices have no place here: oil and gas and clean technology; prosperity and stewardship; industry and lower emissions.

ECW joined the Climate Week Network this year, connecting Houston to a growing community of more than 500,000 people across 22-plus cities. We now have a seat at the global table—and a responsibility to use it well, building with other cities and the wider clean-energy-solutions world rather than merely talking at them.

The capital is already moving. Since 2017, Houston Energy Transition Initiative member companies have invested more than $95 billion in low-carbon infrastructure, technologies, and research and development. This is where the transition is financed, engineered, tested and operated. But the work requires more than capital. It requires capital allocators who understand the difference between a promising idea and a project that can scale, hire and endure.

Last week was Houston’s show and tell. At ARTECHOUSE, The &Bassador Reception & Awards brought art, technology, culture, philanthropy and energy together. Then the week went beyond downtown.

Sugar Land Town Square became the launchpad for the Metro Innovation Tour & Market: a place for an ecosystem conversation about smart cities, clean energy, equitable access and next-generation mobility before participants boarded three tour routes across greater Houston. It was also the starting point for the Bay City South Innovation Tour to Erthos Project Bravo in Matagorda County, where small groups saw Earth Mount solar modules being installed in real time. The conversation did not end at a panel. It went to the project site.

The HTX Tech Tours included a visit to the Erthos Project Bravo in Matagorda County. Photo courtesy

Approximately 100 startups from around the world pitched at Rice Alliance, Greentown Labs and Halliburton Labs events. At Astros Night at Daikin Park, builders, backers, and believers traded conference rooms for the diamond, creating an experience, not just another event. That is how this work becomes civic fabric.

Activation also means making the energy story felt, not merely explained. AY Young brought the Battery Tour for live performances. It was a reminder that the “Power of &” is not confined to a boardroom or a laboratory. Art and technology, culture and commerce, a new generation and established industry can share the same stage—and help more people see themselves in the work ahead.

Perhaps no activation made the “Power of &” more immediate and real than the Houston, We Have Solutions open mic night. At Creatopia’s Innovation Studio, people took the mic—or simply listened—to share what they were building, the problem they could not stop thinking about, and the connection they hoped to make. It put founders, artists, community builders, researchers and future-makers in one room. That is collaboration in real time: different kinds of expertise meeting before anyone knows exactly what the solution will be.

FOX26 helped carry that story beyond the rooms we convened, hosting Erthos COO Jessica Knight, Mars Materials co-founder Aaron Fitzgerald, and investors Taylor Chapman and Juliana Garaizar to discuss building and backing the future in Houston. Our region should be proud—not as self-congratulation, but because the world is beginning to experience energy and climate solutions firsthand.

This was also a week to give back. Allies in Energy awarded $27,500 to nine organizations advancing energy and climate literacy, civil dialogue, workforce pathways and community action. NRG Energy’s Brighter Communities provided a founding gift to expand the week and fund local grants. It took partners, hosts, sponsors, volunteers, funders and community organizations. That is the “Power of &”: collaboration that leaves a stronger community behind.

The “Power of &” cannot stop at Houston’s city limits. Louisiana’s participation—through its support of the Digital Delta Symposium & Expo—made clear that Houston’s builder ecosystem is regional by necessity. Gulf Coast infrastructure, supply chains, talent, and industrial decisions do not recognize state lines. Neither should our collaboration. If we are serious about building more energy with fewer emissions, we must align capital, resources and opportunity across the entire Gulf Coast.

That same commitment to practical collaboration means listening, learning and adjusting. A builder’s mindset does not protect a plan simply because it came first; it improves the conditions for the work to succeed. That is why Houston Energy and Climate Week will move to April 4–10, 2027—better weather, more time and space for connection, and a stronger city-wide experience for the people building what comes next.

But the real test begins now. Can we keep widening the circle? Can we continue to turn research into projects, pilots into infrastructure, capital into good jobs and climate ambition into results that families and communities can see? Can we make every new solution stronger by bringing in the people who must finance it, build it, operate it, live beside it and benefit from it?

That is the work ahead. Turner understood that Houston does not move forward by asking who wins the argument. It moves forward by asking who is ready to solve the problem. His legacy—and the promise of the “&”—is an invitation to choose collaboration over division, action over performance and possibility over false choices.

The future does not need another city to talk about it. It needs Houston to keep building it. And it will only be built if we keep choosing the "&."

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Katie Mehnert is the CEO of The Bee Suite, and a recent partner to The Builder’s Movement.

Texas Gov. Abbott broadens crackdown on data centers by halting all permits

data center crackdown

Responding to public outcry, Gov. Greg Abbott has stepped up his campaign against data centers by temporarily halting approval of environmental permits for data center projects.

This and previous moves by Abbott essentially amount to a temporary freeze on the development of new data centers in Texas. His actions come at a time when Texas’ stature as a data center hub has been soaring.

On Monday, Abbott directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to stop issuing permits for data center developments until the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and Public Utility Commission of Texas complete their review of projects seeking power grid connections.

With regulatory reviews underway and environmental permitting now frozen, state regulators currently cannot approve or deny requests from data center developers, Abbott said.

In a letter to the environmental quality commission’s executive director, Kelly Keel, Abbott said this directive is “consistent with my whole-of-government approach to ensure Texans’ natural resources and way of life are protected.”

Abbott previously ordered the Texas Water Development Board to require data centers to meet reporting requirements for water use. He also told the board to impose penalties for failure to comply with those requirements and to collaborate with ERCOT on its review.

Abbott launched his crackdown on data centers in August by ordering the Public Utility Commission and ERCOT to review data center projects in Texas. The audits will examine all data centers in the queue for interconnections before any more projects can move forward. Interconnections enable data centers to share power, data and computing resources.

In calling for those audits, Abbott cited concerns over data centers’ use of water and electricity, and the centers’ effect on infrastructure expenses and consumers’ utility rates.

“Simply put, Texans must come first,” the governor said.

During next year’s legislation session, Abbott will push for the elimination of state financial incentives for data center projects.

Ed Hirs, an energy fellow ⁠at the University of Houston, told Reuters that Abbott was backtracking on “his earlier pronouncements about data centers leading to lower electricity prices.”

Abbott’s actions come amid growing public backlash over data centers. A recent University of Houston survey found that nearly 63 percent of Houston-area residents opposed construction of a data center within a mile of their home.

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