Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Mitsubishi, ExxonMobil announce low-carbon ammonia production partnership in Baytown

dream team

Spring-based ExxonMobil has teamed up with Japan’s Mitsubishi to potentially produce low-carbon ammonia and nearly carbon-free hydrogen at ExxonMobil’s facility in Baytown.

ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia.

“We look forward to furthering our leadership position, alongside Mitsubishi Corporation, to advance low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia globally, helping the world achieve a lower emission future,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The ammonia would be shipped to Japan for power generation, process heating, and other industrial purposes. In conjunction with this project, Mitsubishi would convert part of a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) terminal into an ammonia terminal. The Japanese conglomerate plans to partner with Japanese petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan for ammonia purchases and a joint equity stake in the Baytown project.

The Baytown project is expected to generate as much as one billion cubic square feet of low-carbon hydrogen per day and more than one million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year.

A financial decision on the project is set for 2025, with the project coming online in 2029.

“We are excited to be closely collaborating with ExxonMobil to develop low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia supply chains that will bridge the United States and Japan,” says Masaru Saito, CEO of Mitsubishi’s Environmental Energy Group. “Together, we will lead this joint initiative to assist in the acceleration of the hard-to-abate sectors’ transition to clean energy.”

The project’s first phase is targeted to produce more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum of low-carbon ammonia by the end of 2027. Photo via Houston.org

4 energy companies join forces on low-carbon ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel

team work

Four companies from all around the world have agreed to work on a large-scale, low-carbon ammonia production and export project on the Houston Ship Channel.

Tokyo-based INPEX Corporation, Paris-based Air Liquide Group, Oklahoma City-based LSB Industries Inc., and Houston-based Vopak Moda Houston LLC have agreed to collaborate on the project, which is expected to deliver its first phase by the end of 2027 with the production of more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of low-carbon ammonia.

“As we approach the achievement of our net zero target by 2050, the unveiling of our low carbon ammonia project in Texas, USA, stands as a momentous testament to INPEX's strong commitment to environmental leadership," INPEX President and CEO Takayuki Ueda says in a news release. "This innovative endeavor marks a significant milestone to create a clean fuel supply chain for a sustainable future.

"By harnessing the power of cutting-edge technologies and collaborative partnerships with Air Liquide, LSB and Vopak Moda, we are accelerating the transition to a low-carbon world, while solidifying our position as a pioneer in energy transformation and a responsible global energy player,” he continues.

Earlier this year, the project completed a feasibility study. Each of the companies will collaborate in various capacities, according to the release, including: Air Liquide and INPEX partnering on low-carbon hydrogen production with their respective technologies; LSB and INPEX collaborating on low-carbon ammonia production, with LSB selecting the ammonia loop technology provider, the pre-FEED, and the engineering, procurement and construction of the facility and LSB overseeing day-to-day operations; INPEX and LSB would sell the low-carbon ammonia and finalize off-take agreements; and Vopak Moda, which currently operates ammonia storage and handling infrastructure, will maintain its ownership of the existing infrastructure and future storage built.

“This project is well aligned with our strategy to become a leader in the global energy transition through the production of low-carbon ammonia,” Mark Behrman, LSB Industries president and CEO, says in the statement. “As a long-standing, highly experienced nitrogen producer and developer of nitrogen production facilities, we are uniquely positioned to play a key role in a critical element of this project by overseeing the design, construction and operation of the ammonia loop."

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Texas ranks below average on most energy-efficient states report

room to improve

Despite being home to a booming energy sector, Texas ranks below average on a new list of the country’s most and least energy-efficient states.

The list, compiled by personal finance website WalletHub, puts Texas at No. 34 for energy efficiency. It ranked 27th for energy efficiency of homes and 41st for energy efficiency of cars. Texas improved by one spot on the 2026 report, after coming in at No. 35 last year and No. 36 in 2024.

California took the top spot on the list this year, beating out Vermont, which claimed the No. 1 rank in 2025. South Carolina ranked No. 48. Due to data limitations, Alaska and Hawaii were excluded from WalletHub’s analysis.

In the WalletHub study, California had the lowest residential energy consumption per capita and the third-highest efficiency for home energy. At the bottom of the list, South Carolina ranked 48th for energy efficiency of homes and 35th for energy efficiency of cars.

Here’s who joined California in the top 5:

No. 2 Vermont
No. 3 New York
No. 4 Washington
No. 5 Massachusetts

WalletHub notes the average U.S. family spends at least $2,000 per year on utilities, and the average consumer spent $2,411 on gasoline in 2024.

The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that adopting energy-efficient measures in the home could reduce a family’s utility costs by as much as 25 percent. As for gas, the agency found a more fuel-efficient vehicle could save the average driver more than $1,000 per year.

“Energy efficiency doesn’t just help save the planet — it also helps save you money by lowering the amount of electricity, gas, oil, or other types of energy you need to consume,” WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo says.

“While there are some steps you can take to become more energy-efficient on your own, living in the right area can give you a big boost,” he adds. “For example, certain states have much better public transportation systems that minimize your need to drive, at least in big cities. Some places also have better-constructed buildings that retain heat better during the winter or stay cooler during the summer.”

WalletHub compiled the listing using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, National Climatic Data Center, U.S. Energy Information Administration, and Federal Highway Administration.

Utility Global's H2Gen named one of the best inventions of 2026

Best of 2026

One of the year's most buzzworthy innovations comes from a Houston-based leader in the energy transition. Utility Global's H2Gen recently made Time magazine’s list of the 300 best inventions of 2026.

The H2Gen is an innovative system that produces low-cost clean hydrogen from water and industrial off-gases. The company says the process doesn’t require electricity, a notable claim since hydrogen production typically consumes a lot of power.

"Using a tubular electrochemical cell containing a proprietary electrolyte and water, the company can turn industrial off-gases into hydrogen at scale—no extra electricity required," writes Time. "Bonus: the process also pulls out carbon dioxide as a separate stream, where it can be captured and kept out of the atmosphere.

CEO Parker Meeks tells Time, it's “a practical pathway to decarbonize existing industrial assets."

The startup is on a roll. It has raised $100 million so far in an ongoing Series D round to offer its decarbonization technology at industrial scale around the world.

H2Gen is joined by 10 other inventions with Texas connections onTime's list, as well as one "special mention."

In North Texas, they are:

Samsung
Plano-based Samsung Electronics America pulled off a hat trick this year, with three products making Time’s list. First up is the Galaxy S26 Ultra smartphone. It packs a more powerful camera, Galaxy AI features, and pro-level content creation tools. But Time singled out its new built-in privacy display as the phone’s “biggest selling point.”

Samsung’s Bespoke AI Family Hub refrigerator also got smarter. When AI first came to the Family Hub in 2024, it could recognize some fresh foods, but you still had to log packaged items by hand, Time noted. Now, with Google Gemini built in, the fridge can identify more than 2,000 packaged foods, read handwritten labels, and warn you when food is about to expire. It then uses what’s inside to build grocery lists and suggest recipes.

And for gamers, there’s the Odyssey G8 monitor. Its 6K resolution leapfrogs the 4K standard, delivering what Samsung calls “exceptional visual clarity and detail” on a screen big enough for gaming and multitasking.

OxeFit
Plano-based OxeFit’s XS1 Peak is about the size of a treadmill but works like an entire gym. It can be set up for strength training, simulated skiing or kayaking, Pilates, or rowing. What makes it stand out is a built-in virtual spotter. According to Time, the machine “uses AI, computer vision and sensors to correct the user’s form, change resistance in the middle of a rep and reduce the weight when the user is struggling, much like a human spotter.”

EssilorLuxottica
EssilorLuxottica, the French eyewear giant whose U.S. headquarters is in Farmers Branch, makes Essilor Stellest lenses. The lenses correct nearsightedness while also slowing the eye growth that makes it worse over time. Stellest is the first and only eyeglass lens authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to control myopia, Time said. The lenses look like regular glasses but contain 1,021 tiny lenslets. In a U.S. trial of kids ages 6-12, myopia progression slowed by an average of 71 percent over two years compared with standard lenses.

Helpany
Helpany, a startup based in Phoenix that manufactures its devices in DFW, makes Paul, a ceiling-mounted gadget that uses radar and AI to spot subtle changes in how residents move and flag those at higher risk of falling. Helpany says the technology can cut falls by as much as 72 percent.

Aurora Innovation
Aurora, based in Pittsburgh with a corporate and operations hub in Coppell, rolled out its second-generation Driver 2 system in July. By September, Driver 2 trucks had logged more than 500,000 driverless miles without a single at-fault crash, Time reported, and the company expects 200 of them on the road by the end of 2026.

Colossal Biosciences
Dallas-based Colossal Biosciences built an artificial egg by placing an ultra-thin, transparent silicone membrane inside a rigid 3D-printed cup, letting scientists watch the embryo develop. Twenty-six chickens have already been hatched.

In Austin, they are:
Cedar Park-based Hyliion landed on Time’s list with its Karno Power Module, a modular generator designed to produce power wherever it’s needed. The Karno represents a big pivot for the company. Hyliion got its start building electrified powertrains for 18-wheelers before shifting into power generation after acquiring the Karno generator technology from GE Aerospace. Founded in Pittsburgh in 2015, the company relocated to Cedar Park in 2018.

The other Austin-associated honoree is Moment Energy. As more electric vehicles hit the road, a growing number of their batteries are nearing retirement, while demand for power keeps climbing. Moment Energy found a way to tackle both problems at once. The company’s Megafactory 1, which opened in Vancouver, Canada, in June, turns old EV batteries into modular energy storage systems for hospitals, factories, data centers, and other big power users. “Our goal is to make sure these batteries don’t end up in landfills,” founder Edward Chiang told Time.

In the “Special Mentions” category, Austin-based Renzoe Box gained notice for its refillable custom makeup palette for on-the-go people. Licensed architect René Graham designed the box. She graduated from Houston's Rice University, and was born and raised in Dallas.

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A version of this article first appeared on CultureMap.com.

Houston researchers develop heating method to recover critical minerals from e-waste

hot new research

Researchers at Rice University have developed a new technique to efficiently recycle electronic waste and harvest critical minerals using rapid heating.

Most electronic devices use flame-retardant plastic. The plastic is formulated from a critical metal called antimony.

However, recapturing antimony is typically a challenging task since it first has to be released from the plastic. As it is released, other compounds can form, such as organic bromides, which are toxic and difficult to capture. However, the organic bromides can also be reused and have applications in industrial chemicals when safely captured.

“Conventionally heating the plastic releases the antimony in a volatile and difficult-to-collect form as well as creating and releasing hazardous organic bromide compounds,” Leo Haoxin Ye, first author of the paper and a graduate student at Rice, said in a news release. “Other options are risky or more impractical, such as using strong acids, organic solvents or multistep treatment options.”

To address this issue, leading Rice chemistry professor James Tour, Ye and their team adapted Tour’s flash Joule heating technique, which heats materials to hundreds of degrees Celsius in milliseconds, according to Rice.

The team ground up flame-retardant plastic waste and placed it between two sheets of electrically heated carbon paper before using what’s known as isothermal-clamped flash Joule heating to release and collect the antimony.

The team found that limiting the time the plastic spent in the high temperature range dramatically reduced the production of the hazardous organic bromide compounds. The plastic remained between 200 degrees and 500 degrees Celsius for only 9.4 milliseconds, according to Rice.

Through the process, the team recovered 90 percent of antimony from tested materials and converted 83 percent of the bromide into hydrogen bromide. Their findings were published this month in the journal Nature Chemical Engineering.

“Isothermal-clamped flash Joule heating could improve the speed, safety and practicality of antimony recovery from discarded flame-retardant plastics,” Tour added in the release. “This represents an important step forward to conserving and reusing our critical antimony supply while also regenerating bromide salts for reuse.”

The study noted that the world is currently trending toward producing 82 million metric tons of flame-retardant plastic waste by 2030, which adds to the fact that e-waste is the fastest-growing solid waste stream in the world.

The research was funded by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

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