The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

  • "Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
  • "The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
  • "Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

  • EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
  • EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
  • In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

------------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Mitsubishi, ExxonMobil announce low-carbon ammonia production partnership in Baytown

dream team

Spring-based ExxonMobil has teamed up with Japan’s Mitsubishi to potentially produce low-carbon ammonia and nearly carbon-free hydrogen at ExxonMobil’s facility in Baytown.

ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia.

“We look forward to furthering our leadership position, alongside Mitsubishi Corporation, to advance low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia globally, helping the world achieve a lower emission future,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The ammonia would be shipped to Japan for power generation, process heating, and other industrial purposes. In conjunction with this project, Mitsubishi would convert part of a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) terminal into an ammonia terminal. The Japanese conglomerate plans to partner with Japanese petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan for ammonia purchases and a joint equity stake in the Baytown project.

The Baytown project is expected to generate as much as one billion cubic square feet of low-carbon hydrogen per day and more than one million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year.

A financial decision on the project is set for 2025, with the project coming online in 2029.

“We are excited to be closely collaborating with ExxonMobil to develop low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia supply chains that will bridge the United States and Japan,” says Masaru Saito, CEO of Mitsubishi’s Environmental Energy Group. “Together, we will lead this joint initiative to assist in the acceleration of the hard-to-abate sectors’ transition to clean energy.”

The project’s first phase is targeted to produce more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum of low-carbon ammonia by the end of 2027. Photo via Houston.org

4 energy companies join forces on low-carbon ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel

team work

Four companies from all around the world have agreed to work on a large-scale, low-carbon ammonia production and export project on the Houston Ship Channel.

Tokyo-based INPEX Corporation, Paris-based Air Liquide Group, Oklahoma City-based LSB Industries Inc., and Houston-based Vopak Moda Houston LLC have agreed to collaborate on the project, which is expected to deliver its first phase by the end of 2027 with the production of more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of low-carbon ammonia.

“As we approach the achievement of our net zero target by 2050, the unveiling of our low carbon ammonia project in Texas, USA, stands as a momentous testament to INPEX's strong commitment to environmental leadership," INPEX President and CEO Takayuki Ueda says in a news release. "This innovative endeavor marks a significant milestone to create a clean fuel supply chain for a sustainable future.

"By harnessing the power of cutting-edge technologies and collaborative partnerships with Air Liquide, LSB and Vopak Moda, we are accelerating the transition to a low-carbon world, while solidifying our position as a pioneer in energy transformation and a responsible global energy player,” he continues.

Earlier this year, the project completed a feasibility study. Each of the companies will collaborate in various capacities, according to the release, including: Air Liquide and INPEX partnering on low-carbon hydrogen production with their respective technologies; LSB and INPEX collaborating on low-carbon ammonia production, with LSB selecting the ammonia loop technology provider, the pre-FEED, and the engineering, procurement and construction of the facility and LSB overseeing day-to-day operations; INPEX and LSB would sell the low-carbon ammonia and finalize off-take agreements; and Vopak Moda, which currently operates ammonia storage and handling infrastructure, will maintain its ownership of the existing infrastructure and future storage built.

“This project is well aligned with our strategy to become a leader in the global energy transition through the production of low-carbon ammonia,” Mark Behrman, LSB Industries president and CEO, says in the statement. “As a long-standing, highly experienced nitrogen producer and developer of nitrogen production facilities, we are uniquely positioned to play a key role in a critical element of this project by overseeing the design, construction and operation of the ammonia loop."

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

8 Houston energy companies land on Time's top greentech list for 2025

top honor

The accolades keep rolling in for Houston-based Fervo Energy, a producer of geothermal power.

Fervo lands at No. 6 on Time magazine and Statista’s new list of America’s Top GreenTech Companies of 2025. The ranking recognizes sustainability-focused companies based on factors such as impact, financial strength, and innovation.

Time notes that Fervo broke ground in 2023 in Utah on what the company claims will be the world’s largest geothermal plant. The plant is scheduled to start supplying carbon-free electricity to the grid next year and to reach its 400-megawatt capacity in three years.

“Technologies like this only make a difference if we deploy them at large-scale in a way that can reduce carbon emissions and increase the reliability of the grid,” Fervo CEO Tim Latimer told Time in 2023.

The startup was named North American Company of the Year by research and consulting firm Cleantech Group for 2025. Fervo topped the Global Cleantech 100, Cleantech Group’s annual list of the world’s most innovative and promising cleantech companies.

Last year, Fervo also made Time’s list of the 200 Best Inventions of 2024. Fervo was recognized in the green energy category for its FervoFlex geothermal power system.

Founded in 2017, Fervo is now a unicorn, meaning its valuation as a private company exceeds $1 billion. The startup’s valuation is estimated at $1.4 billion. According to PitchBook data, the company raised $634 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

In all, eight Houston-area companies appear among the top 250 greentech companies ranked by Time and Statista. Other than Fervo, they are:

  • No. 43 Lancium Technologies, an energy storage and distribution company
  • No. 50 Solugen, a producer of sustainable chemicals.
  • No. 56 Quaise Energy, which specializes in terawatt-scale geothermal power.
  • No. 129 Plus Power, a developer, owner and operator of battery storage projects.
  • No. 218 Dream Harvest, which promotes sustainable vertical farming.
  • No. 225 Cemvita, which uses synthetic biology to convert carbon emissions into bio-based chemicals.
  • No. 226 Syzygy Plasmonics, which decarbonizes chemical production.
Vermont-based BETA Technologies claimed the No. 1 spot. The company manufactures electric aircraft.

Global co. opens state-of-the-art energy innovation hub in Houston

flagship facility

French multinational company Schneider Electric has opened a new 10,500-square-foot, state-of-the-art Energy Innovation Center in Houston.

The new facility is located in Houston’s Energy Corridor and is designed to “foster increased collaboration and technological advancements across the entire value chain,” according to a news release from the company. The new Houston location joins Schneider's existing innovation hubs in Paris, Singapore and Bangalore.

The venue will serve as a training center for process control engineers, production superintendents, manufacturing managers, technical leads and plant operations personnel. It can simulate various real-world scenarios in refineries, combined-cycle power plants, ethylene plants, recovery boilers and chemical reactors.

It includes an interactive control room and artificial Intelligence applications that “highlight the future of industrial automation,” according to the release.

"Digitalization is significantly enhancing the global competitiveness of the U.S. through continuous innovation and increased investment into next-generation technology," Aamir Paul, Schneider Electric's President of North America Operations, said in the release.

Texas has over 4,100 Schneider Electric employees, the most among U.S. states, and has facilities in El Paso, the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and other areas.

"This flagship facility in the Energy Capital of the World underscores our commitment to driving the future of software-defined automation for our customers in Houston and beyond,” Paul added in the release. “With this announcement, we are excited to continue supporting the nation's ambitions around competitive, efficient and cost-effective manufacturing."

Schneider Electric says the new Houston facility is part of its expansion plans in the U.S. The company plans to invest over $700 million in its U.S. operations through 2027, which also includes an expansion at its El Paso campus.

The company also announced plans to invest in solar and battery storage systems developed, built, and operated by Houston-based ENGIE North America last year. Read more here.