Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Mitsubishi, ExxonMobil announce low-carbon ammonia production partnership in Baytown

dream team

Spring-based ExxonMobil has teamed up with Japan’s Mitsubishi to potentially produce low-carbon ammonia and nearly carbon-free hydrogen at ExxonMobil’s facility in Baytown.

ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia.

“We look forward to furthering our leadership position, alongside Mitsubishi Corporation, to advance low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia globally, helping the world achieve a lower emission future,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The ammonia would be shipped to Japan for power generation, process heating, and other industrial purposes. In conjunction with this project, Mitsubishi would convert part of a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) terminal into an ammonia terminal. The Japanese conglomerate plans to partner with Japanese petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan for ammonia purchases and a joint equity stake in the Baytown project.

The Baytown project is expected to generate as much as one billion cubic square feet of low-carbon hydrogen per day and more than one million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year.

A financial decision on the project is set for 2025, with the project coming online in 2029.

“We are excited to be closely collaborating with ExxonMobil to develop low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia supply chains that will bridge the United States and Japan,” says Masaru Saito, CEO of Mitsubishi’s Environmental Energy Group. “Together, we will lead this joint initiative to assist in the acceleration of the hard-to-abate sectors’ transition to clean energy.”

The project’s first phase is targeted to produce more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum of low-carbon ammonia by the end of 2027. Photo via Houston.org

4 energy companies join forces on low-carbon ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel

team work

Four companies from all around the world have agreed to work on a large-scale, low-carbon ammonia production and export project on the Houston Ship Channel.

Tokyo-based INPEX Corporation, Paris-based Air Liquide Group, Oklahoma City-based LSB Industries Inc., and Houston-based Vopak Moda Houston LLC have agreed to collaborate on the project, which is expected to deliver its first phase by the end of 2027 with the production of more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of low-carbon ammonia.

“As we approach the achievement of our net zero target by 2050, the unveiling of our low carbon ammonia project in Texas, USA, stands as a momentous testament to INPEX's strong commitment to environmental leadership," INPEX President and CEO Takayuki Ueda says in a news release. "This innovative endeavor marks a significant milestone to create a clean fuel supply chain for a sustainable future.

"By harnessing the power of cutting-edge technologies and collaborative partnerships with Air Liquide, LSB and Vopak Moda, we are accelerating the transition to a low-carbon world, while solidifying our position as a pioneer in energy transformation and a responsible global energy player,” he continues.

Earlier this year, the project completed a feasibility study. Each of the companies will collaborate in various capacities, according to the release, including: Air Liquide and INPEX partnering on low-carbon hydrogen production with their respective technologies; LSB and INPEX collaborating on low-carbon ammonia production, with LSB selecting the ammonia loop technology provider, the pre-FEED, and the engineering, procurement and construction of the facility and LSB overseeing day-to-day operations; INPEX and LSB would sell the low-carbon ammonia and finalize off-take agreements; and Vopak Moda, which currently operates ammonia storage and handling infrastructure, will maintain its ownership of the existing infrastructure and future storage built.

“This project is well aligned with our strategy to become a leader in the global energy transition through the production of low-carbon ammonia,” Mark Behrman, LSB Industries president and CEO, says in the statement. “As a long-standing, highly experienced nitrogen producer and developer of nitrogen production facilities, we are uniquely positioned to play a key role in a critical element of this project by overseeing the design, construction and operation of the ammonia loop."

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Utah solar company acquires Houston projects, expands to Texas

solar deals

Utah-based solar technology and battery storage company SunPower has announced its expansion into Texas by acquiring “prime project assets” from Houston installer Green Light Solar.

As part of the deal, Green Light Solar CEO James Garrett will lead SunPower’s U.S. installation group. Garrett is based in the Houston area, according to LinkedIn.

Green Light Solar focuses on residential and commercial solar installations, battery backups and whole-home generators throughout Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Colorado. As of press time, SunPower had not disclosed which specific projects or assets were included in the acquisition.

In addition to the Green Light acquisition, SunPower also announced its second strategic partnership with Fort Worth-based SOLRITE Energy, which provides solar and battery project financing and virtual power plant capabilities.

Through the partnership, SunPower plans to expand its residential solar and battery storage business and grow its virtual power plant (VPP) network in Texas.

A virtual power plant is a network of connected energy sources that can supply electricity to the grid when demand is high. The network draws on energy stored in individual residential and commercial battery systems. VPPs can also help participating homeowners generate additional revenue by selling their stored power.

“SOLRITE not only sources projects to us but also provides project funding for innovative systems with large batteries connected to a VPP, enabling power sales into the open market,” T. J. Rodgers, SunPower CEO, said in a news release. “That VPP capability provides an extra source of income that SOLRITE shares with homeowners and EPCs, making SOLRITE an attractive partner.”

SunPower will bring its sales, installation and lifetime warranty support to the partnership, while SOLRITE will provide its virtual power plant platform and solar financing capabilities, according to the release.

"Building our VPP business is a key part of SunPower’s growth strategy going forward,” Kapil Rai, EVP of Direct at SunPower, added in the release. “Our partnership with SOLRITE gives us a path to bring together customer acquisition, solar, storage deployment, and financing to develop this business in Texas and beyond.”

Solid-state generator company secures $9M in financing, names CTO

fresh financing

ATS Energy has secured a $9 million investment to help commercialize its solid-state generator technology, a representative from the company tells Energy Capital.

The Colorado-based company is a member of Houston's Greentown Labs climatech community and was named the second most-promising startup in the Innovations for Traditional Energy, Electricity, & the Grid track during CERA Week's Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition in March.

ATS's technology converts industrial waste heat into electricity via its proprietary thermoelectric cartridges, according to a news release. The cartridges convert the otherwise wasted thermal energy directly into usable electricity with no turbine, no moving parts and no emissions.

"We have spent years building a proven track record of breakthrough technology," Doug Hudson, CEO of ATS Energy, said in the release. "What has developed over the past year is that markets are moving toward ATS Energy, said in the release. We've moved well beyond early interest to commercial commitments, active proposals and a pipeline that continues to expand across multiple industrial sectors. That puts us in a tremendous position to meet the moment in delivering energy to industry. This investment responds to real commercial opportunity, and it positions ATS Energy to scale production, meet customer demand faster, and drive commercial deployments."

According to the release, ATS plans to complete and deploy its first commercial generator using the thermoelectric cartridges by mid-2027. The company shared that it plans to begin revenue-generating operations next year, as well.

ATS has also named Edward Ganja as its new CTO. Ganja previously served as a technology advisor for ATS and spent more than 30 years at Shell, most recently as vice president of catalyst and analytical technology in Houston, according to LinkedIn.

"Having worked closely with the team as a Technology Adviser, I am thrilled to step into the Chief Technology Officer role to lead our technology strategy and advanced materials scale-up," Ganja shared in a LinkedIn post. "ATS is tackling crucial energy challenges, and I look forward to working with our talented team, partners, and industry colleagues to accelerate our commercial development and technological footprint."

A representative from the company shares that ATS has three employees in Texas, including two in Houston. The company is targeting industrial facilities, including Gulf Coast refineries and petrochemical plants, for its production model, which will leverage established manufacturing capabilities to help quickly scale its commercial pipeline.

"We are scaling manufacturing with the discipline required for commercial-grade industrial deployment, moving beyond proof-of-concept to deliver mission-critical equipment," Terry Hill, COO of ATS, added in the release. "We've been building the supply chain, identifying the right manufacturing partners and putting the processes in place to move toward repeatable production. By leveraging contract manufacturing, we can focus our capital on the technology, the product and our customers rather than building factories. Just as importantly, we're working to reduce the time between installations so we can respond to the demand we're seeing in the market."

ATS won the prestigious Earthshot Prize in the Fix Our Climate category in 2024. The Earthshot Prize, founded by Prince William, awards £1 million to five energy startups each year over a decade.

Trump says he's ending restrictions on methane emissions from oil drilling

In the News

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that his administration is “terminating” a Biden-era rule that aimed to cut planet-warming emissions of methane from oil and gas drilling.

Trump said during a campaign rally in Texas that the change would save companies and consumers billions of dollars and unlock 210 million barrels of oil. That’s equivalent to about 10 days of U.S. petroleum consumption.

The move aims to encourage more domestic drilling as Trump faces criticism over high fuel prices amid the war in Iran.

Methane is responsible for about a third of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, scientists estimate.

Cuts in methane emissions have emerged in recent years as a global priority to slow the rate of climate change. Oil and gas operations are the largest industrial source of methane, which is the main component in natural gas and far more potent to the atmosphere than carbon dioxide in the short term.

The invisible gas leaks from equipment and is released into the atmosphere or burned off as a waste product by oil drillers.

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin previewed the changes last month, saying they would eliminate the agency’s “Super Emitter Program” that requires companies to investigate and repair major methane releases from oil and natural gas facilities. The agency would also set less restrictive standards for small oil and gas wells.

Trump said during Tuesday's rally in Lubbock for Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton that Biden's plan “crushed the small operators” with crippling regulations.

“I’m officially terminating Biden’s expensive and unnecessary methane regulations to save consumers and energy producers $45 billion in costs,” Trump said.

The loosening of the emissions rule comes as Trump and Republicans in Congress have been methodically dismantling climate policies enacted under former President Joe Biden. That's included the revocation of a scientific finding that was central to U.S. action on greenhouse gas emissions, lower fuel economy standards for vehicles and a move to repeal emission restrictions for coal and natural gas power plants.

Environmental groups said the latest rollback will let companies continue polluting the atmosphere with gas that could be captured and provide energy to millions of households.

Environmental Defense Fund President Fred Krupp said it gives a “free pass” to companies at the expense of American consumers.

“EPA should be fighting this waste, not making it easier,” he said.

Zeldin has said the methane rule would have cost $18 billion and was holding back the U.S. energy industry.

The Biden methane rule was announced by officials including former Vice President Kamala Harris during a 2023 U.N. climate conference in the United Arab Emirates.

Federal officials under Biden said it would prevent an estimated 58 million tons (52.6 million metric tonnes) of methane emissions by 2038 and reduce other pollutants that cause health problems.

By 2034, the rule was projected to yield $98 billion in benefits. That figure was derived by calculating the future “social costs” of greenhouse gas emissions on public health and the environment, an approach rejected by Trump's EPA.

While previous regulations focused only on new oil and gas wells in the U.S., the Biden rule regulated existing wells. Operators also would have needed to plug leaking methane from smaller wells that produce just 6% of the nation’s oil and gas while accounting for up to half of all methane emissions from oil and gas fields.

The final rule was published in 2024. The EPA last year imposed an 18-month delay to give companies time to meet new inspection requirements and other provisions.

The rule was crafted to be coordinated with a methane fee, approved in the 2022 climate law. The fee program would have levied a “waste emissions charge” of as much as $1,500 per metric ton of methane on energy producers that exceed a certain level of methane emissions.

The fee marked the first time the U.S. government directly imposed a fee, or tax, on greenhouse gas emissions. Congress repealed it weeks after Trump took office.

Officials also tried to rein in methane from oil and gas under former President Barack Obama, but that effort was scaled back during Trump's first term.

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