Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Mitsubishi, ExxonMobil announce low-carbon ammonia production partnership in Baytown

dream team

Spring-based ExxonMobil has teamed up with Japan’s Mitsubishi to potentially produce low-carbon ammonia and nearly carbon-free hydrogen at ExxonMobil’s facility in Baytown.

ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia.

“We look forward to furthering our leadership position, alongside Mitsubishi Corporation, to advance low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia globally, helping the world achieve a lower emission future,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The ammonia would be shipped to Japan for power generation, process heating, and other industrial purposes. In conjunction with this project, Mitsubishi would convert part of a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) terminal into an ammonia terminal. The Japanese conglomerate plans to partner with Japanese petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan for ammonia purchases and a joint equity stake in the Baytown project.

The Baytown project is expected to generate as much as one billion cubic square feet of low-carbon hydrogen per day and more than one million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year.

A financial decision on the project is set for 2025, with the project coming online in 2029.

“We are excited to be closely collaborating with ExxonMobil to develop low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia supply chains that will bridge the United States and Japan,” says Masaru Saito, CEO of Mitsubishi’s Environmental Energy Group. “Together, we will lead this joint initiative to assist in the acceleration of the hard-to-abate sectors’ transition to clean energy.”

The project’s first phase is targeted to produce more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum of low-carbon ammonia by the end of 2027. Photo via Houston.org

4 energy companies join forces on low-carbon ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel

team work

Four companies from all around the world have agreed to work on a large-scale, low-carbon ammonia production and export project on the Houston Ship Channel.

Tokyo-based INPEX Corporation, Paris-based Air Liquide Group, Oklahoma City-based LSB Industries Inc., and Houston-based Vopak Moda Houston LLC have agreed to collaborate on the project, which is expected to deliver its first phase by the end of 2027 with the production of more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of low-carbon ammonia.

“As we approach the achievement of our net zero target by 2050, the unveiling of our low carbon ammonia project in Texas, USA, stands as a momentous testament to INPEX's strong commitment to environmental leadership," INPEX President and CEO Takayuki Ueda says in a news release. "This innovative endeavor marks a significant milestone to create a clean fuel supply chain for a sustainable future.

"By harnessing the power of cutting-edge technologies and collaborative partnerships with Air Liquide, LSB and Vopak Moda, we are accelerating the transition to a low-carbon world, while solidifying our position as a pioneer in energy transformation and a responsible global energy player,” he continues.

Earlier this year, the project completed a feasibility study. Each of the companies will collaborate in various capacities, according to the release, including: Air Liquide and INPEX partnering on low-carbon hydrogen production with their respective technologies; LSB and INPEX collaborating on low-carbon ammonia production, with LSB selecting the ammonia loop technology provider, the pre-FEED, and the engineering, procurement and construction of the facility and LSB overseeing day-to-day operations; INPEX and LSB would sell the low-carbon ammonia and finalize off-take agreements; and Vopak Moda, which currently operates ammonia storage and handling infrastructure, will maintain its ownership of the existing infrastructure and future storage built.

“This project is well aligned with our strategy to become a leader in the global energy transition through the production of low-carbon ammonia,” Mark Behrman, LSB Industries president and CEO, says in the statement. “As a long-standing, highly experienced nitrogen producer and developer of nitrogen production facilities, we are uniquely positioned to play a key role in a critical element of this project by overseeing the design, construction and operation of the ammonia loop."

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Meet the 80+ startups pitching at Houston Energy and Climate Week

Pitch Lineup

One of the highlights from Houston Energy and Climate Week is hearing directly from the up-and-coming founders working to reshape the energy landscape.

This year, dozens of startups from Brazil to Berkeley and from right here in the Bayou City will compete for cash prizes and bragging rights while showcasing their concepts at HECW pitch events. Here's who's pitching at some of the week's signature competitions. Check back after the week wraps to see who takes home the top prizes.

Cypher Pilotathon and Startup Showcase — Sept. 15 at POST Houston

At the Cypher Pilotathon, founders will give their best 7-minute pilot pitches to industry experts and a live audience, followed by Q&A. This year's event will center around the theme, "The NEW Energy Industrial Revolution." Here's who's pitching:

Houston-based Aeromine Technologies, a distributed wind turbine company
San Francisco-based Ammobia, which develops low-carbon, energy source-agnostic ammonia
Birmingham, Alabama-based Ashipa Electric, a renewable energy semiconductor and microgrid manufacturer
Houston-based BigMachine AI, an AI engineer for industrial projects
Houston-based Corrolytics, which has developed corrosion detection technology
São Paulo, Brazil-based GLR Tech, which has developed a compact, scalable, low-cost platform for industrial emissions control
Monreal-based Green Graphite Technologies, which produces battery-grade graphite in a cost-effective and sustainable manner
Boston-based KIRA, which converts industrial wastewater into ultrapure water and solids
Edinburgh-based Mocean Energy, which works to deliver renewable ocean energy to power offshore industry
Los Angeles-based Mote, which works to convert agricultural and forestry waste into clean energy
Berkeley-based Oleo, which is developing a biomanufacturing platform to transform biomass waste into carbon-negative, cost-competitive oil feedstocks for advanced fuels
Oslo, Norway-based OTee, an automation machinery manufacturer
Houston-based Resollant, which is working to produce battery-grade graphite and ultra-low-cost hydrogen
Tulsa-based RyuGen Energy Solutions Inc., which works to turn underused commercial power into distributed AI infrastructure
Berkeley-based Sunchem, which provides precision separation of critical metals from sources including e-waste, evaporator scrap, solar panels, and mining ores and concentrates

Twenty-two other startups will participate in the startup showcase. See the full list here.

Greentown Climatetech Summit — Sept. 16 at the Continental Club

Ten Greentown startups will compete for $25,000 in prizes at Greentown Climatetech Summit's signature pitch event. Judges include Dave Dreessen, of Chevron Technology Ventures’ Future Energy Fund, and Jon Greene, of New Climate Ventures. Here's who's pitching:

Houston-based AMPeers, which manufactures high-temperature superconducting wire for high-power electrification infrastructure
Detroit-based AmHyTech, which enables ambient-condition liquid ammonia handling for fertilizer and fuel applications
Houston- and Zurich-based Biosimo, which converts biomass-based ethanol into lower-carbon acetic acid and acetyls
Houston-based Capwell Services Inc., which captures methane from low-flow oil and gas vents and returns it to market
Cleveland- and Ghana-based Cocoa Potash, which extracts potassium carbonate and fertilizer from cocoa, coconut, and palm-nut waste
Houston-based Solidec, which electrolyzes air, water, and electricity into onsite hydrogen peroxide.
Houston-based Focis AI, which converts industrial laser scans into a queryable digital twin of refineries and plants
Calgary-based Kanin Energy, which develops and finances waste heat to power projects for industrial clients
San Francisco-based FelixFusion, which models grid connection points so developers can validate interconnection in minutes
Houston-based Pike Robotics, which deploys its Wall-Eye robot to inspect hazardous tanks without taking assets offline

TEX-E Student Innovators will also pitch earlier in the day-long event, and an additional five Greentown startups will compete for $1,000 during the Lightning Pitch Competition. Find more information here.

Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum — Sept. 17 at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business

Houston-based companies Aquanta Vision, Capwell Services and Deep Anchor Solutions will be joined by startups from around the world to compete to be named one of the 10 Most Promising Companies at the 23rd Energy Tech Venture Forum. Additional companies will participate in office hours.

See the full list of nearly 50 companies pitching here.

Halliburton Labs Pitch Day — Sept. 18 at the Ion

Halliburton Labs Pitch Day brings together a curated group of early‑stage energy technology investors and 16 participating companies. The event is invitation‑only. Here's who's pitching:

Australia-based Aquafortus, which has developed a non-thermal liquid to liquid desalination technology for resource recovery from wastewater brine
Calgary-based Ayrton Energy, which has developed a proprietary technology that enables hydrogen to be stored within an organic liquid, which can be handled and transported like gasoline
Illinois-based Cache Energy, which is developing electrified heat and long-term energy storage
New York-based Cella, which is working to advance subsurface mineralization of CO2
Miami-based Chemergy, which has developed a patented process to convert wet organic and plastic wastes into green hydrogen
Tennessee-based Enexor BioEnergy, which is developing on-site waste-to-bioenergy conversion systems
Reno-based Espiku, which focuses on water and minerals recovery from industrially produced water
UK-based LiNa Energy, which is developing low-cost, solid-state sodium battery technology
Michigan-based Marel Power Solutions, which is developing advanced cooling technology to redefine power-stacks
California-based Mitico, which is developing technology to collect and purify carbon dioxide at the source, post-combustion, before it enters the atmosphere
Singapore-based Nandina REM, which turns end-of-life assets into new, reliable, high-performance carbon fiber materials for the aviation, aerospace and defense industries
California-based Noon Energy, which is developing a 100-plus-hour ultra-long-duration battery storage
Silicon Valley-based Proof Energy, which is commercializing next-generation metallic solid oxide fuel cell (M-SOFC) technology.
Berkeley-based Sunchem, which provides precision separation of critical metals from sources including e-waste, evaporator scrap, solar panels, and mining ores and concentrates
Singapore-based Sungreen, an advanced materials company pioneering nanotechnology-based coatings for high-efficiency, low-cost electrodes
Minneapolis-based Syncris, which is developing next-generation modular power systems designed for the most demanding environments

Read more about Houston Energy and Climate Week and its programming in Energy Capital's event preview.

KBR's Mission Technology Solutions spinoff awarded $1.1B NOAA contract

A Big Deal

Amid a major spinoff, Houston-based KBR's Mission Technology Solutions business has been awarded a five-year contract for up to $1.1 billion from NOAA’s National Weather Service to help predict and combat extreme weather conditions.

Under the follow-on Commercial Data Program National Mesonet Program (CDP NMP) contract, KBR will provide weather and observational data from commercial stations, university and research campuses, and other non-federal providers nationwide. The information collected will assist in predicting severe temperatures and high-impact weather conditions like extreme storms.

"This award underscores KBR's proven track record of delivering vital data that strengthens national forecasting capabilities," Todd May, KBR’s senior vice president of Mission Technology Solutions, said in a news release.

According to a separate release from NOAA, the contract expands upon KBR's existing relationship with the agency. KBR will work with about 70 private industry partners on services such as data recording, collection, aggregation and processing, and will lead the CDP NMP's "network of networks."

“NOAA gathers environmental information from a wide variety of sources, and a growing list of private industry partners have joined our agency to collect this vital data,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in the release. “This agreement streamlines the process that turns raw data into the gold-standard forecasts that Americans depend on.”

KBR will utilize its Speed to Mission ImpactSM technology for the project to supply data from across regions, measurement types, and system configurations. Both KBR and NOAA say the expanded data collection contract will help the agency create more accurate and timely forecasts, particularly for severe weather and extreme events, while also creating a path for new weather-observation technologies.

KBR has supported the CDP NMP for more than nine years. The program will be managed in Greenbelt, Maryland.

"We're driving expanded integration of commercial sensor and data sources into this platform and are honored to know our work helps forecasters give their communities earlier warnings and more time to prepare for dangerous weather,” May added in a release.

KBR’s Mission Technology Solutions business will be rebranded as Trinzic after its planned spin-off, the company announced last month. The spin-off is expected to close in January 2027.

Trinzic will work as an independent, publicly traded company focused on technology and engineering services for the space and national security sector. KBR will remain a separate publicly traded company that will focus on sustainable technology and services to support the energy transition.

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This article originally appeared on InnovationMap.com.

Houston researchers map data center growth, trends in new interactive platform

data center development

Have you ever wondered why data centers are located where they are?

Energy experts at Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies (CES) have developed a tool to help answer that question.

Rice researchers at the CES, part of Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, have created an interactive map to track data center growth and energy infrastructure in the United States.

Kenneth B. Medlock III, Miaomiao Rimmer, Anmol Mital and Beck Edwards developed the tool, known as the U.S. Data Centers and Infrastructure map. It aims to provide a comprehensive view of the factors shaping where data centers are located, from power and water costs to infrastructure, public policy and local sentiment.

“The map lets you see why data centers are being built where they are by connecting the dots between infrastructure, power costs, water availability, public policy and public sentiment across different regions,” Medlock, senior director at CES, said in a news release. “You can zoom out and look at the whole U.S. to easily realize why data centers locations are being chosen—the price of power and water matters.”

The tool maps information on data center locations against other factors like energy, water, economics and politics. It also shows existing infrastructure in the area, including electric transmission lines, power plants, and fiber-optic networks, and provides information on water stress, electricity prices and natural gas prices.

According to Rice, the map will be updated in real time and currently includes information on existing data centers and proposed data centers.

Additionally, the map provides county-level analyses of news coverage and media to explore local attitudes towards the development of data centers in communities. Users can also explore political and demographic information.

According to the Pew Research Center, most data centers that are being built will appear in rural areas, with Virginia, Texas and Georgia leading the way in the number of planned facilities. Pew’s 2026 findings also noted that 38 percent of Americans live within 5 miles of at least one operational data center.

Meanwhile, Houston and Texas are poised for continued data center growth. Other reports predict that Houston’s data center capacity could more than double by 2028. Texas is home to an estimated 400-plus data centers, according to commercial real estate services provider CBRE.

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