Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Mitsubishi, ExxonMobil announce low-carbon ammonia production partnership in Baytown

dream team

Spring-based ExxonMobil has teamed up with Japan’s Mitsubishi to potentially produce low-carbon ammonia and nearly carbon-free hydrogen at ExxonMobil’s facility in Baytown.

ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia.

“We look forward to furthering our leadership position, alongside Mitsubishi Corporation, to advance low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia globally, helping the world achieve a lower emission future,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The ammonia would be shipped to Japan for power generation, process heating, and other industrial purposes. In conjunction with this project, Mitsubishi would convert part of a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) terminal into an ammonia terminal. The Japanese conglomerate plans to partner with Japanese petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan for ammonia purchases and a joint equity stake in the Baytown project.

The Baytown project is expected to generate as much as one billion cubic square feet of low-carbon hydrogen per day and more than one million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year.

A financial decision on the project is set for 2025, with the project coming online in 2029.

“We are excited to be closely collaborating with ExxonMobil to develop low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia supply chains that will bridge the United States and Japan,” says Masaru Saito, CEO of Mitsubishi’s Environmental Energy Group. “Together, we will lead this joint initiative to assist in the acceleration of the hard-to-abate sectors’ transition to clean energy.”

The project’s first phase is targeted to produce more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum of low-carbon ammonia by the end of 2027. Photo via Houston.org

4 energy companies join forces on low-carbon ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel

team work

Four companies from all around the world have agreed to work on a large-scale, low-carbon ammonia production and export project on the Houston Ship Channel.

Tokyo-based INPEX Corporation, Paris-based Air Liquide Group, Oklahoma City-based LSB Industries Inc., and Houston-based Vopak Moda Houston LLC have agreed to collaborate on the project, which is expected to deliver its first phase by the end of 2027 with the production of more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of low-carbon ammonia.

“As we approach the achievement of our net zero target by 2050, the unveiling of our low carbon ammonia project in Texas, USA, stands as a momentous testament to INPEX's strong commitment to environmental leadership," INPEX President and CEO Takayuki Ueda says in a news release. "This innovative endeavor marks a significant milestone to create a clean fuel supply chain for a sustainable future.

"By harnessing the power of cutting-edge technologies and collaborative partnerships with Air Liquide, LSB and Vopak Moda, we are accelerating the transition to a low-carbon world, while solidifying our position as a pioneer in energy transformation and a responsible global energy player,” he continues.

Earlier this year, the project completed a feasibility study. Each of the companies will collaborate in various capacities, according to the release, including: Air Liquide and INPEX partnering on low-carbon hydrogen production with their respective technologies; LSB and INPEX collaborating on low-carbon ammonia production, with LSB selecting the ammonia loop technology provider, the pre-FEED, and the engineering, procurement and construction of the facility and LSB overseeing day-to-day operations; INPEX and LSB would sell the low-carbon ammonia and finalize off-take agreements; and Vopak Moda, which currently operates ammonia storage and handling infrastructure, will maintain its ownership of the existing infrastructure and future storage built.

“This project is well aligned with our strategy to become a leader in the global energy transition through the production of low-carbon ammonia,” Mark Behrman, LSB Industries president and CEO, says in the statement. “As a long-standing, highly experienced nitrogen producer and developer of nitrogen production facilities, we are uniquely positioned to play a key role in a critical element of this project by overseeing the design, construction and operation of the ammonia loop."

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6+ must-attend Houston energy transition events for June 2026

Mark Your Calendars

Editor's note: Summer is here, and June brings a slate of must-attend events for those in the energy transition sector. CLEANPOWER is already underway, and the month continues with EPC Show and InnovateEnergy Week. Mark your calendars and register now.

June 1-4, 2026 — CLEANPOWER 2026 Conference and Exhibition

CLEANPOWER unites policymakers, experts, and corporate leaders to solve the challenges that none can solve alone. This must-attend, four-day conference is packed with cutting-edge discussions about wind, solar, storage, and transmission; dealmaking; networking; and fun.

This event continues through June 4 at the George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

June 4, 2026 — Energy Capital Conference

Join 300+ investors, operators, and capital providers in Houston for high-impact conversations shaping the next phase of energy investment. Hart Energy’s Energy Capital Conference is designed for senior decision-makers to meet the capital partners behind today’s deals; see where capital is flowing; strengthen the relationships that move business forward; and get ahead of where investment is going next. A pre-conference half-day workshop, titled Institutional Investing in Energy Workshop, will take place June 3.

This event takes place June 4 at the Post Oak Hotel. Register here.

June 9 — Greentown Go Make Kickoff

Head to the Ion to celebrate the Greentown Go Make 2026 cohort. The open-innovation program with Shell Catalysts & Technologies and Technip Energies focuses on catalytic solutions for industrial decarbonization and the energy transition. Hear pitches from the founders and network with a select group of startups while enjoying food and drink.

This event takes place June 9 at the Ion. Register here.

June 11, 2026 — Goals & Gigawatts Kickoff Party

Head to downtown Houston for Goals & Gigawatts: The Power of & Kickoff Party. The exciting Houston Energy & Climate Week gathering will combine fútbol, culture, climate, energy, innovation, and community for one unforgettable afternoon. Celebrate the opening FIFA match in Mexico City while connecting with professionals, innovators, investors, community leaders, and organizations shaping the future of energy and climate initiatives in Houston and beyond.

This event takes place at 1:30 pm on June 11, and the location is provided after registering. Register here.

June 16-17, 2026 — Energy Projects Conference & Expo

The Energy Projects Conference & Expo (EPC Show) is the largest event in North America for professionals working at the heart of major energy projects. The essential event for engineering, construction, commissioning, operations and maintenance across multiple energy sectors brings together five leading conferences under one roof. Conference subjects span LNG exporting, hydrogen and ammonia, midstream, petrochem and refining, and sustainable aviation fuels.

This event begins June 16 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

June 22-24, 2026 — InnovateEnergy Week

InnovateEnergy Week 2026 brings together the Energy Drone & Robotics Summit, Industrial Digital Reality Summit, and Industrial AI Nexus Summit for three days of high-powered innovation in Houston. This highly anticipated event will unite 1,500+ industrial, energy, and engineering leaders to explore the future of autonomous operations, spatial computing, digital twins, XR, AI, geospatial intelligence, and remote systems from the stars to the seafloor.

This event begins June 22 at Woodlands Waterway Marriott. Register here.

New Texas water plan does not consider data center growth, critics say

For the Future

A draft of Texas’ 2027 State Water Plan is drawing concerns from some water protection advocates who say it fails to account for one growing industry: data centers.

The plan, created by the Texas Water Development Board, will guide tens of billions of dollars in water development projects over the coming decades.

On Memorial Day, people packed Lake Travis to enjoy the water and sunshine while the lake remains near full capacity. But some advocates warn drought conditions could quickly return.

“Once we get into August, September, we'll be probably right back in the same drought situation,” said Mike Clifford with the Greater Edwards Aquifer Alliance.

The Texas Water Development Board released the draft plan in April. It recommends thousands of water projects carrying a projected cost of $174 billion over 50 years.

“We're not as shocked about the dollar amounts as some people are,” Clifford said. "To secure our water future, that's not an insane amount to ask for."

However, Clifford said his organization was surprised the draft does not specifically account for the growing impact of data centers, which can consume large amounts of water.

“If you leave the data centers out, it's not really a plan in our opinion. It's going to have to be changed and it's going to fall short,” Clifford said.

According to Data Center Map, Texas is currently home to 461 data centers.

Clifford argues the state should use projected future growth, not just historical data, when planning for long-term water needs.

“They're looking at the previous 10 years or 20 years or whatever, and we didn't have a lot of data centers in Texas,” he said.

Researchers at the the University of Texas at Austin estimate data centers could account for as much as 9 percent of Texas’ total water use by 2040, or potentially surpass the oil and gas industry that same year.

Read the full story from CultureMap news partner KVUE.com.

Houston startup strikes deal to develop hydrogen production plant in Canada

hydrogen partnership

Houston-based cleantech startup Vema Hydrogen has reached a tentative agreement with Canada-based CHARBONE Corp. to develop a hydrogen production and processing plant in Québec.

The deal would couple Vema’s production of engineered mineral hydrogen with CHARBONE’s purification, compression and distribution capabilities.

Engineered mineral hydrogen, also known as orange hydrogen, is produced underground by accelerating naturally occurring geochemical reactions in iron-rich rock formations, according to the journal Energy & Environmental Science.

“Across high-value markets — from aviation and maritime fuels to industrial gases — there is incredible demand for Vema’s low-carbon [hydrogen]. Now, more than ever, we need a pathway to deliver these low-carbon fuels,” Pierre Levin, CEO of Vema, said in a news release.

The project would enable Vema to expand into emerging markets like low-carbon maritime and aviation fuel, e-fuels and power generation. Incorporating CHARBONE’s capabilities, the agreement would also support Québec’s hydrogen supply chain.

“The market is demanding high-value industrial gases, and our customers need cleaner, more reliable supply. By pairing Vema’s [hydrogen] feedstock with our purification and distribution capabilities, we’re strengthening Québec’s position as a regional hub for next-generation hydrogen,” Dave Gagnon, CEO of CHARBONE, added in the release.

Vema said in February that it had completed drilling of its first two pilot wells in Québec, making them the world’s first pilot well for orange hydrogen. It’s the first time Vema’s technology has been used outside a lab.

“This pilot will provide the critical data needed to validate [our hydrogen] at commercial scale and demonstrate that Quebec can lead the world in this emerging clean energy category,” Levin said. “The quality of the rock within our core samples is exactly what we expected and is very promising for hydrogen yields.”

Shortly before Vema carried out the pilot drilling, it signed a 10-year deal with California-based energy technology company Verne Power to supply clean hydrogen for California data centers. Over the course of the 10-year agreement, Vema will boost annual production of orange hydrogen to more than 36,000 metric tons.

“There is a robust market for baseload power generation across the U.S., where data centers are straining the grid,” Levin said. “As we power California’s fastest-growing markets with clean hydrogen, we look toward expanding our hydrogen to markets globally and supporting AI-driven power hubs.”

Vema, founded two years ago, raised $13 million in seed funding in 2025.

“The energy transition and emerging uses of hydrogen have spurred demand for clean hydrogen,” Levin said in its funding announcement. “However, existing decarbonized hydrogen production methods simply don’t work — they are too costly and energy-intensive. Vema is here to change that. It’s time to unlock a new era of scalable, low-carbon hydrogen.”

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