Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Mitsubishi, ExxonMobil announce low-carbon ammonia production partnership in Baytown

dream team

Spring-based ExxonMobil has teamed up with Japan’s Mitsubishi to potentially produce low-carbon ammonia and nearly carbon-free hydrogen at ExxonMobil’s facility in Baytown.

ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia.

“We look forward to furthering our leadership position, alongside Mitsubishi Corporation, to advance low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia globally, helping the world achieve a lower emission future,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The ammonia would be shipped to Japan for power generation, process heating, and other industrial purposes. In conjunction with this project, Mitsubishi would convert part of a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) terminal into an ammonia terminal. The Japanese conglomerate plans to partner with Japanese petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan for ammonia purchases and a joint equity stake in the Baytown project.

The Baytown project is expected to generate as much as one billion cubic square feet of low-carbon hydrogen per day and more than one million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year.

A financial decision on the project is set for 2025, with the project coming online in 2029.

“We are excited to be closely collaborating with ExxonMobil to develop low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia supply chains that will bridge the United States and Japan,” says Masaru Saito, CEO of Mitsubishi’s Environmental Energy Group. “Together, we will lead this joint initiative to assist in the acceleration of the hard-to-abate sectors’ transition to clean energy.”

The project’s first phase is targeted to produce more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum of low-carbon ammonia by the end of 2027. Photo via Houston.org

4 energy companies join forces on low-carbon ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel

team work

Four companies from all around the world have agreed to work on a large-scale, low-carbon ammonia production and export project on the Houston Ship Channel.

Tokyo-based INPEX Corporation, Paris-based Air Liquide Group, Oklahoma City-based LSB Industries Inc., and Houston-based Vopak Moda Houston LLC have agreed to collaborate on the project, which is expected to deliver its first phase by the end of 2027 with the production of more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of low-carbon ammonia.

“As we approach the achievement of our net zero target by 2050, the unveiling of our low carbon ammonia project in Texas, USA, stands as a momentous testament to INPEX's strong commitment to environmental leadership," INPEX President and CEO Takayuki Ueda says in a news release. "This innovative endeavor marks a significant milestone to create a clean fuel supply chain for a sustainable future.

"By harnessing the power of cutting-edge technologies and collaborative partnerships with Air Liquide, LSB and Vopak Moda, we are accelerating the transition to a low-carbon world, while solidifying our position as a pioneer in energy transformation and a responsible global energy player,” he continues.

Earlier this year, the project completed a feasibility study. Each of the companies will collaborate in various capacities, according to the release, including: Air Liquide and INPEX partnering on low-carbon hydrogen production with their respective technologies; LSB and INPEX collaborating on low-carbon ammonia production, with LSB selecting the ammonia loop technology provider, the pre-FEED, and the engineering, procurement and construction of the facility and LSB overseeing day-to-day operations; INPEX and LSB would sell the low-carbon ammonia and finalize off-take agreements; and Vopak Moda, which currently operates ammonia storage and handling infrastructure, will maintain its ownership of the existing infrastructure and future storage built.

“This project is well aligned with our strategy to become a leader in the global energy transition through the production of low-carbon ammonia,” Mark Behrman, LSB Industries president and CEO, says in the statement. “As a long-standing, highly experienced nitrogen producer and developer of nitrogen production facilities, we are uniquely positioned to play a key role in a critical element of this project by overseeing the design, construction and operation of the ammonia loop."

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Houston's PowerBridge partners on 2GW Texas AI data center campus

data center venture

Houston-based PowerBridge has formed a joint venture with Denver-based Liberty Energy to develop large-scale data center campuses.

The joint venture’s initial focus will be PowerBridge’s Alpha Digital Campus, a 2-gigawatt data center operation planned for West Texas. PowerBridge sets up data center campuses to support AI and cloud computing. Liberty is an energy company whose Liberty Power Innovations subsidiary offers distributed power and energy storage services.

Houston-based investment firm Five Point Infrastructure LLC established PowerBridge last year, committing up to $1 billion in equity. Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported Five Point is trying to raise $2.5 billion for a new fund targeting water management projects, natural gas treatment systems and data center sites.

Through Five Point subsidiary LandBridge, PowerBridge enjoys access to more than 275,000 acres for infrastructure development as well as low-cost natural gas.

The first phase of PowerBridge’s West Texas campus is expected to offer more than 300 megawatts of generation capacity, with the potential to add more capacity over time. The campus is scheduled to start delivering power in the fourth quarter of 2027.

“By aligning our powered-campus development assets with Liberty’s comprehensive power services and operational expertise, we are creating a model that can be scaled across future gigawatt-scale powered data center campuses in West Texas,” Alex Hernandez, founder and CEO of PowerBridge, said in a release.

Before joining PowerBridge in 2025, Hernandez led Cumulus Data and Talen Energy Corp., a provider of power and energy infrastructure. Amazon Web Services bought Cumulus Data, a subsidiary of Houston-based Talen, in 2024 for $650 million. Cumulus develops nuclear-powered data centers.

Hernandez sits on the board of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which manages about 90 percent of the state’s electrical load.

Liberty recently announced a partnership with Houston-based energy technology company SLB to support the expansion of data center capacity.

Energy AI startup chooses Houston for first U.S. office after $20M raise

welcome to houston

London-based AI firm Applied Computing has announced a $20 million Series A round and a new office in Houston.

The new Bayou City office is Applied Computing’s first in the United States and part of its North American expansion. The company is known for its Orbital AI platform, which is tailored for energy operations.

The funding round was led by Houston-based KBR Inc., with participation from San Francisco-based Databricks Ventures. KBR’s investment was first announced in March.

KBR and Applied Computing have also entered into a multi-year agreement to deliver exclusive AI products for the energy sector. KBR already has integrated Orbital into its INSITE 3.0 platform for energy projects, and is also using the product for ammonia production.

Applied Computing’s Orbital platform combines physics-grounded intelligence with models across chemical engineering, time-series forecasting and language, according to the company. The system analyzes sensor readings and can recognize a facility’s equipment constraints and operator activity. The platform can also allow technicians to run simulations of how a change to a facility could affect the rest of its operations.

According to TechCrunch, Applied Computing will use the $20 million to further explore projects and deployments with the energy sector, hire engineering and research positions, and continue to expand internationally, potentially into the Middle East.

The company is also working on deals with a major U.S. stream operator, TechCrunch reports. And Applied Computing shared on LinkedIn that it plans to announce its first partnership with a major European oil company in the coming weeks.

“Yesterday we showed Orbital live in deployments at our demo day at the Energy Institute in London,” Callum Adamson, CEO and co-founder of Applied Computing, posted on LinkedIn on July 16. “Today, we're announcing the capital to scale it globally as well as the launch of our new offices in Houston and Bangalore. In the weeks following, there will be more announcements on our progress, partnerships and deployments.”

The company opened its Bangalore offices in December.

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.com.

Automakers enter the energy space with vehicles offering backup power

Power Boost

Winter Storm Uri, the multiday freeze that slammed Texas in February 2021 and pummeled the state's power grid, has been on Kenneth Kovar's mind ever since. Though the resident of New Braunfels didn't lose power at the time, he wasn't able to run his septic tank — it is independent from local systems. He had to fill his toilets with water from his backyard pool.

So when Kovar, 64, bought a Ford F-150 last fall, his hope was to be better prepared for any new crisis.

“I was interested in trying to find some sort of power backup situation,” he said.

Now, Kovar has a setup from Ford that allows drivers of certain F-150 models to plug their vehicle directly into their electric meter to power parts of their home during an outage.

It is the latest example of automakers broadly adapting their electrification technologies to the home energy business, especially as demand on the grid increases and sales of electric vehicles slow. Car companies are looking to leverage their multibillion dollar EV investments to tap into a promising market in vehicle, home and grid technology, both for backup power and for supporting electrical grid resiliency.

“They’re trying to look for other businesses that they might sell into,” said Parth Vaishnav, assistant professor of sustainable systems at the University of Michigan.

Ford's latest connects F-150 drivers to their meter

Drivers of the F-150 PowerBoost hybrid and F-150 Lightning electric pickup trucks can now plug in a one-foot long adapter to a 240-volt outlet onboard. That adapter — which Ford made with company Global Power Products — makes the vehicle compatible to plug into a longer, separate cable. That cable connects to a transfer switch installed directly on one's electric meter.

Through the adapter and cable series, homeowners can connect their vehicle essentially right to their home’s breaker box. The homeowner simply turns on and off which breaker switches they want for which devices they want powered.

“The way we think about it, especially for customers who already have a compatible vehicle is, you already own the power source, it’s in your driveway,” said Amanda Roraff, Ford's grid and energy services business acceleration lead.

The Lightning might provide power for two to three days, depending on what home devices are being used, and the PowerBoost Hybrid, up to five days on a single tank of gas.

The automaker says its solution is a less expensive way to supply backup power. Conventional, diesel-powered portable generators and full-home standby setups require expensive installation, costing several thousands of dollars. This solution, which also requires professional installation at the meter, starts around $1,100.

The setup only applies to about 200,000 vehicles so far, and it is also exclusively for outages. Ford also offers its Home Integration System for bidirectionality, sending power both from the vehicle to the home and from the home to the vehicle, while also being able to feed the grid.

The capability is an important lifeline amid EV sales slowdown

Not only is this business critical amid growing grid demand and increasing power outages, experts say automakers need to pivot with the EV market less active under current U.S. federal policy. Pure EV sales in the U.S. year-over-year are down 23.8%, according to a July Cox Automotive report on the first half of 2026. This demonstrates what an asset that EV and hybrid ownership can be.

The tech is not without challenges.

On the industry side, these systems have to undergo third-party testing to ensure they meet safety standards, and the vehicle and the charger need to be programmed to communicate. It also requires the approval of the utility where the capability is being used. It could take years to get an interconnect agreement.

On the customer side, homeowners need to understand their vehicles' abilities and how to self-manage their system. It also just brings another generator of power into the home mix.

Still, experts see opportunity, especially with interest in EV sales high outside of the U.S.

“We already know during an outage, its impact, providing electricity to the home,” said Scott Samuelsen, engineering professor emeritus at the University of California, Irvine. “This is going to become very, very popular.”

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