ADVERTISEABOUT USSUBMIT A STORYSUBSCRIBETERMS OF USEPRIVACY POLICY
Visit our family of Brands

Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

guest column

The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

  • "Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
  • "The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
  • "Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

  • EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
  • EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
  • In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

------------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

From Your Site Articles
ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Mitsubishi, ExxonMobil announce low-carbon ammonia production partnership in Baytown

dream team

Spring-based ExxonMobil has teamed up with Japan’s Mitsubishi to potentially produce low-carbon ammonia and nearly carbon-free hydrogen at ExxonMobil’s facility in Baytown.

ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia.

“We look forward to furthering our leadership position, alongside Mitsubishi Corporation, to advance low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia globally, helping the world achieve a lower emission future,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The ammonia would be shipped to Japan for power generation, process heating, and other industrial purposes. In conjunction with this project, Mitsubishi would convert part of a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) terminal into an ammonia terminal. The Japanese conglomerate plans to partner with Japanese petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan for ammonia purchases and a joint equity stake in the Baytown project.

The Baytown project is expected to generate as much as one billion cubic square feet of low-carbon hydrogen per day and more than one million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year.

A financial decision on the project is set for 2025, with the project coming online in 2029.

“We are excited to be closely collaborating with ExxonMobil to develop low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia supply chains that will bridge the United States and Japan,” says Masaru Saito, CEO of Mitsubishi’s Environmental Energy Group. “Together, we will lead this joint initiative to assist in the acceleration of the hard-to-abate sectors’ transition to clean energy.”

The project’s first phase is targeted to produce more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum of low-carbon ammonia by the end of 2027. Photo via Houston.org

4 energy companies join forces on low-carbon ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel

team work

Four companies from all around the world have agreed to work on a large-scale, low-carbon ammonia production and export project on the Houston Ship Channel.

Tokyo-based INPEX Corporation, Paris-based Air Liquide Group, Oklahoma City-based LSB Industries Inc., and Houston-based Vopak Moda Houston LLC have agreed to collaborate on the project, which is expected to deliver its first phase by the end of 2027 with the production of more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of low-carbon ammonia.

“As we approach the achievement of our net zero target by 2050, the unveiling of our low carbon ammonia project in Texas, USA, stands as a momentous testament to INPEX's strong commitment to environmental leadership," INPEX President and CEO Takayuki Ueda says in a news release. "This innovative endeavor marks a significant milestone to create a clean fuel supply chain for a sustainable future.

"By harnessing the power of cutting-edge technologies and collaborative partnerships with Air Liquide, LSB and Vopak Moda, we are accelerating the transition to a low-carbon world, while solidifying our position as a pioneer in energy transformation and a responsible global energy player,” he continues.

Earlier this year, the project completed a feasibility study. Each of the companies will collaborate in various capacities, according to the release, including: Air Liquide and INPEX partnering on low-carbon hydrogen production with their respective technologies; LSB and INPEX collaborating on low-carbon ammonia production, with LSB selecting the ammonia loop technology provider, the pre-FEED, and the engineering, procurement and construction of the facility and LSB overseeing day-to-day operations; INPEX and LSB would sell the low-carbon ammonia and finalize off-take agreements; and Vopak Moda, which currently operates ammonia storage and handling infrastructure, will maintain its ownership of the existing infrastructure and future storage built.

“This project is well aligned with our strategy to become a leader in the global energy transition through the production of low-carbon ammonia,” Mark Behrman, LSB Industries president and CEO, says in the statement. “As a long-standing, highly experienced nitrogen producer and developer of nitrogen production facilities, we are uniquely positioned to play a key role in a critical element of this project by overseeing the design, construction and operation of the ammonia loop."

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

Houston-based ‘grid in a box’ provider Branch Energy raises $33M

fresh funding

Houston-based startup Branch Energy, which offers a self-contained “grid in a box,” has collected $33 million in a Series B round.

Piva Capital and Clean Energy Ventures led the round, according to a news release. Active Impact Investments, Whitecap Venture Partners, Prelude Ventures, Zero Infinity Partners and Inovia Capital also contributed to the round.

In 2024, Branch raised $10.8 million in an oversubscribed Series A round.

Branch’s business model

Branch, which launched in 2021, says its proprietary Arc “grid in a box” contains everything needed to store and supply electricity. A container about the size of a parking space holds an industrial-grade battery, grid connection equipment, cooling capabilities, autonomous controls and cloud-based management software.

The startup installs Arc systems at warehouses, hotels, factories, stores and other commercial properties. Each system arrives on a flatbed truck and can be online within two days, Branch says.

Under Branch’s business model, a property owner avoids upfront payment for an Arc system.

Aside from equipping a host business with an Arc system, Branch serves as the business’ power provider. The startup says it guarantees savings on the host’s energy bills and delivers backup power during outages.

Branch generates revenue by sending the battery’s stored power to the grid or to customers like hyperscale data centers. It also benefits by shifting energy from low-cost periods at night to high-cost periods during daily power peaks.

The startup handles permitting, installation, insurance and operations for each Arc system. The host provides a parking-lot-sized plot of land for the system.

Alex Ince-Cushman, co-founder and CEO of Branch, says the startup’s “grid in a box” can quickly meet the substantial power requirements of hyperscale data centers.

“We can do it on the timeline of a delivery, not a construction project. Our customers don’t lift a finger, don’t pay a dime and get guaranteed savings,” Ince-Cushman said in the release.

Entering the Illinois market

Branch already operates in Texas and is entering the Illinois market.

PJM, which operates Illinois’ power grid, recently paved the way for major energy users like data centers to connect to the grid sooner when they rely on their own electricity generation. PJM’s territory covers roughly 1.2 million commercial buildings and represents 20 percent of U.S. power demand, according to Branch.

“Grids around the country need the distributed capacity that [the Arc] system can supply, especially in states with fast-growing power demand like Texas and Illinois,” Lee Larson, principal at Piva Capital added in the release.

To keep up with that demand, Branch plans to build tens of thousands of Arc systems in the U.S.

A multibillion-dollar company in the making?

Daniel Goldman, co-founder and managing partner of Clean Energy Ventures, said Branch holds the potential to become a multibillion-dollar competitor in the emerging market for distributed power.

“With utility-scale generation and storage challenged by interconnect and siting constraints, behind-the-meter commercial, and industrial storage sites have become the ultimate market opportunity with ease of interconnect, ability to combine distributed AI data centers, and identifiable savings in rapidly growing markets,” Goldman said.

Rice Alliance, Greentown name winners of Houston Energy and Climate Week pitch competitions

winner winners

Approximately 100 startups from around the world pitched their breakthrough technologies and businesses during Houston Energy and Climate Week, with a select few taking home top prizes and bragging rights.

Each year, investors at the Rice Alliance Energy Technology Venture Forum name the 10 most-promising startups. Greentown's Climatetech Summit also culminates in a pitch event, where member companies can earn cash prizes.

Here's who won at two of the week's anchor events and competitions.

Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum

The 23nd annual event was held Thursday, Sept. 17, at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business. The most-promising companies were selected by industry experts and participating investors attending the event.

The 10 most-promising companies included:

  • Australia-based Aquafortus, which has developed a non-thermal liquid to liquid desalination technology for resource recovery from wastewater brine
  • Houston-based Focis AI, which converts industrial laser scans into a queryable digital twin of refineries and plants
  • Houston-based ironlattice, a semiconductor manufacturing company
  • Houston-based Licube, which has developed technology to produce ultra-high-purity lithium compounds for the fusion energy, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and high-performance solid-state battery sectors
  • Houston-based Mars Materials, a clean chemical manufacturing business that is working to convert captured carbon into resources, such as carbon fiber and wastewater treatment chemicals
  • Dallas-based MCatalysis, which has developed a suite of proprietary microwave-driven catalysts to produce high-quality, ready-to-use fuels compatible with existing infrastructure
  • Oslo, Norway-based OTee, an automation machinery manufacturer
  • Houston-based Pike Robotics, which deploys its Wall-Eye robot to inspect hazardous tanks without taking assets offline
  • New Mexico-based Spiritus, a direct-air-capture (DAC) technology company
  • San Francisco-based UptimeAI Inc., which develops AI reasoning agents for industrial operations teams

Stellai won the People's Choice Award. The Norwegian company develops AI products for the waste management industry.

The energy technology ventures selected to participate in the forum were named earlier this year. See the full list here, and read about last year's winners here.

Greentown Lab's Climatetech Summit

The annual summit was held Wednesday, Sept. 16, featured a number of Houston startups in its pitch competition and lighting pitch round. Judges included Dave Dreessen,, Jon Greene, Naval Preet Singh, Philip Llewellyn, Erin Madro, Justin Yeung, Jay Kim, Rawand Rasheed and Moji Karimi.

Pitch winners included:

  • First place: Elementium Materials' CEO Matthew Dawson, winning a $10,000 cash prize sponsored by TotalEnergies plus another $10,000 in legal services sponsored by Foley Hoag. The company develops advanced battery electrolytes. It is a Greentown Boston member; though Dawson is based in Houston.
  • Second place: Houston-based Solidec CEO and co-founder Ryan DuChanois, winning $5,000 in legal services sponsored by Foley Hoag. The company electrolyzes air, water and electricity into onsite hydrogen peroxide.

Lightening pitch winners included:

  • First place: Montana-based MagDrive Technologies, winning a $1,000 cash prize sponsored by Energy Transition Ventures. The company develops magnetically actuated, zero-emission valve systems that eliminate fugitive emissions and improve reliability.
  • Second place: Houston-based HEXASpec, winning a $500 cash prize sponsored by Foley Hoag. The company has created a new material to improve heat management for the semiconductor industry.

Read Greentown's recap of the summit here.

Houston Energy and Climate Week announced that the 2027 event will move to the spring, held April 4-10.

Kanin Energy raises up to $100M for waste-heat-to-power projects

fresh funding

Kanin Energy, a member of the Greentown Labs climatech and energy incubator in Houston, recently raised as much as $100 million in capital to grow its energy-as-a-service platform.

S2G Investments led a round of up to $50 million, and the Canada Growth Fund chipped in an additional $50 million. The money will primarily support Kanin’s development and operation of waste-heat-to-power projects.

Kanin—founded in 2020 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada—builds and runs onsite power assets for large-scale energy users. The startup says its energy-as-a-service offering lowers power costs, boosts power reliability and decreases emissions.

The company operates a waste-heat-to-power project at Ohio’s University of Dayton. The project supplies zero-emission electricity.

Kanin has a pipeline of projects totaling about 50 megawatts of capacity. This includes a waste-heat-to-power plant at the Phillips 66 Mewbourn gas-processing plant near Greeley, Colorado.

“Kanin was built on the belief that industrial facilities already hold the solution to their own energy challenges, they just need the right partner to execute,” Janice Tran, CEO of Kanin, who is based in Houston, said in a release. “At a time when power costs continue to rise, [our] solutions are an important tool for our industrial customers to manage their costs, operations, and emissions.”

Marisa Sweeney, principal at S2G, says waste heat is a largely underused resource for lowering power costs, alleviating grid congestion and improving power reliability.

The waste-heat-to-power process captures thermal energy from industrial activities and converts it to electricity. This happens without using extra fuel or generating more emissions.

Kanin says up to 58 percent of energy consumed by industrial processes is lost as waste heat. This heat winds up in the atmosphere at thousands of facilities in North America, including oil-and-gas operations, cement plants, and steel mills, the startup says.

Kanin was founded in 2020 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. It opened offices at Greentown Labs Houston in July 2022.

View All Listings