Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

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The future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. Photo by Engin Akyurt/Pexels

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

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ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Mitsubishi, ExxonMobil announce low-carbon ammonia production partnership in Baytown

dream team

Spring-based ExxonMobil has teamed up with Japan’s Mitsubishi to potentially produce low-carbon ammonia and nearly carbon-free hydrogen at ExxonMobil’s facility in Baytown.

ExxonMobil and Mitsubishi are still working out details of the arrangement, such as equity participation in the project and use of the low-carbon ammonia.

“We look forward to furthering our leadership position, alongside Mitsubishi Corporation, to advance low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia globally, helping the world achieve a lower emission future,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The ammonia would be shipped to Japan for power generation, process heating, and other industrial purposes. In conjunction with this project, Mitsubishi would convert part of a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) terminal into an ammonia terminal. The Japanese conglomerate plans to partner with Japanese petroleum company Idemitsu Kosan for ammonia purchases and a joint equity stake in the Baytown project.

The Baytown project is expected to generate as much as one billion cubic square feet of low-carbon hydrogen per day and more than one million tons of low-carbon ammonia per year.

A financial decision on the project is set for 2025, with the project coming online in 2029.

“We are excited to be closely collaborating with ExxonMobil to develop low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia supply chains that will bridge the United States and Japan,” says Masaru Saito, CEO of Mitsubishi’s Environmental Energy Group. “Together, we will lead this joint initiative to assist in the acceleration of the hard-to-abate sectors’ transition to clean energy.”

The project’s first phase is targeted to produce more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum of low-carbon ammonia by the end of 2027. Photo via Houston.org

4 energy companies join forces on low-carbon ammonia project on the Houston Ship Channel

team work

Four companies from all around the world have agreed to work on a large-scale, low-carbon ammonia production and export project on the Houston Ship Channel.

Tokyo-based INPEX Corporation, Paris-based Air Liquide Group, Oklahoma City-based LSB Industries Inc., and Houston-based Vopak Moda Houston LLC have agreed to collaborate on the project, which is expected to deliver its first phase by the end of 2027 with the production of more than 1.1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of low-carbon ammonia.

“As we approach the achievement of our net zero target by 2050, the unveiling of our low carbon ammonia project in Texas, USA, stands as a momentous testament to INPEX's strong commitment to environmental leadership," INPEX President and CEO Takayuki Ueda says in a news release. "This innovative endeavor marks a significant milestone to create a clean fuel supply chain for a sustainable future.

"By harnessing the power of cutting-edge technologies and collaborative partnerships with Air Liquide, LSB and Vopak Moda, we are accelerating the transition to a low-carbon world, while solidifying our position as a pioneer in energy transformation and a responsible global energy player,” he continues.

Earlier this year, the project completed a feasibility study. Each of the companies will collaborate in various capacities, according to the release, including: Air Liquide and INPEX partnering on low-carbon hydrogen production with their respective technologies; LSB and INPEX collaborating on low-carbon ammonia production, with LSB selecting the ammonia loop technology provider, the pre-FEED, and the engineering, procurement and construction of the facility and LSB overseeing day-to-day operations; INPEX and LSB would sell the low-carbon ammonia and finalize off-take agreements; and Vopak Moda, which currently operates ammonia storage and handling infrastructure, will maintain its ownership of the existing infrastructure and future storage built.

“This project is well aligned with our strategy to become a leader in the global energy transition through the production of low-carbon ammonia,” Mark Behrman, LSB Industries president and CEO, says in the statement. “As a long-standing, highly experienced nitrogen producer and developer of nitrogen production facilities, we are uniquely positioned to play a key role in a critical element of this project by overseeing the design, construction and operation of the ammonia loop."

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Houston researchers map data center growth, trends in new interactive platform

data center development

Have you ever wondered why data centers are located where they are?

Energy experts at Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies (CES) have developed a tool to help answer that question.

Rice researchers at the CES, part of Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, have created an interactive map to track data center growth and energy infrastructure in the United States.

Kenneth B. Medlock III, Miaomiao Rimmer, Anmol Mital and Beck Edwards developed the tool, known as the U.S. Data Centers and Infrastructure map. It aims to provide a comprehensive view of the factors shaping where data centers are located, from power and water costs to infrastructure, public policy and local sentiment.

“The map lets you see why data centers are being built where they are by connecting the dots between infrastructure, power costs, water availability, public policy and public sentiment across different regions,” Medlock, senior director at CES, said in a news release. “You can zoom out and look at the whole U.S. to easily realize why data centers locations are being chosen—the price of power and water matters.”

The tool maps information on data center locations against other factors like energy, water, economics and politics. It also shows existing infrastructure in the area, including electric transmission lines, power plants, and fiber-optic networks, and provides information on water stress, electricity prices and natural gas prices.

According to Rice, the map will be updated in real time and currently includes information on existing data centers and proposed data centers.

Additionally, the map provides county-level analyses of news coverage and media to explore local attitudes towards the development of data centers in communities. Users can also explore political and demographic information.

According to the Pew Research Center, most data centers that are being built will appear in rural areas, with Virginia, Texas and Georgia leading the way in the number of planned facilities. Pew’s 2026 findings also noted that 38 percent of Americans live within 5 miles of at least one operational data center.

Meanwhile, Houston and Texas are poised for continued data center growth. Other reports predict that Houston’s data center capacity could more than double by 2028. Texas is home to an estimated 400-plus data centers, according to commercial real estate services provider CBRE.

UH team lands $2.9M DOE grant to develop next-gen magnets with AI

critical minerals

University of Houston researchers are leading an effort to find alternatives to a key element of the U.S. economy.

A UH-led coalition is exploring the use of AI to design and manufacture next-generation permanent magnets for the energy and industrial sectors. The project seeks to develop new, more sustainable magnets that reduce U.S. reliance on vulnerable foreign sources of critical minerals, primarily China.

A nearly $2.9 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy supports the work.

“Rare earth elements, critical minerals, and magnets are indispensable to American energy, industry, and national security,” Conner Prochaska, director of the Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy, said in a news release. “These projects will accelerate domestic mineral discovery and develop ultra-powerful magnets to mobilize U.S. critical mineral reserves, safeguard supply chains, and protect American energy and economic interests.”

Over the three-year grant period, principal investigator Jakoah Brgoch, a chemistry professor at UH, will head the Guided AI for Magnetic Boride/Carbide Intermetallic Technologies (GAMBIT) project. Brgosh was one of seven new senior members from UH named to the National Academy of Inventors earlier this year.

Other members of the team include Joshua Bocarsly, an assistant professor in the UH chemistry department; scientists at Rice University; and Houston-based startup Newfound Materials, which occupies space at Greentown Labs.

The UH-led team aims to surpass the properties of neodymium iron boron, the current industry-standard material for high-performance permanent magnets. These magnets are vital components in electric vehicles, industrial motors, generators, electronics and other advanced technologies.

“Strong magnets are used all over our economy. For example, many modern air-conditioning systems rely on permanent-magnet motors to drive compressors and blower fans,” Brgoch said.

“This has been a longstanding challenge to think about how we replace these magnets with high-performing and more reliable materials, and optimization by just replacing elements is not working,” Brgoch added. “Our goal is to use AI to find entirely new materials while simultaneously balancing these supply constraint concerns.”

The research team will work on discovering and testing potential magnet replacements. According to UH, the project’s ultimate goal is to commercialize the magnets through a new startup or by expanding Newfound Materials’ business units. The local startup has developed a predictive engine for materials research and development.

10 can't-miss events at Houston Energy and Climate Week 2026

where to be

Editor's note: Houston Energy and Climate Week returns for its third year, Sept. 12–18, with panels, happy hours, pitch days and tours focused on the energy transition.

The Ion District will host many of the week's events. Here are details on some can't-miss, signature events and how to register. Find the full schedule here. Please note: this article may be updated to add more events.

Sept. 13 — The & Awards

Kick off the week by celebrating Houston honorees leading the future of energy at the & Awards. The & Awards will honor Zay Zeidman, chairman of Houston First and managing partner of Altitude Ventures; The University of Houston's Renu Khator and Ramanan Krishnamoorti; Maryanne Maldonado, CEO of the World Affairs Council; and Fervo Energy co-founders Tim Latimer (CEO) and Jack Norbeck (CTO). The inaugural posthumous Lifetime Ambassador Award will honor former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, and this year’s Allies in Energy grant recipients will also be recognized. The evening will include a fireside chat, an immersive gallery, live music, passed hors d'oeuvres, Champagne and plenty of networking opportunities.

This event is Sunday, Sept. 13, from 6-9 p.m. at ARTECHOUSE Houston. Register here.

Sept. 14 — Brews on the Bayou

Head to Saint Arnold Brewery for a more laid-back kickoff event. Grab a beer and take in a live conversation with Paul Hobby, managing director of Genesis Park, and Katie Mehnert, CEO of The Bee Suite and co-founder of HECW. Rice University's Aaron Pomerantz will moderate the discussion. Then hear a live performance from AY Young.

This event is Monday, Sept. 14, from 6-9 p.m. at Saint Arnold Brewery. Register here.

Sept. 14–18 — Sip For Sustainability

Enjoy a signature cocktail at five H Town Restaurant Group spots each night of Houston Energy and Climate Week. A portion of every purchase will go toward Allies in Energy, which supports education, collaboration, and community programs that drive a more sustainable future. Participating eateries include Hugo's, Xochi, Uber, Zaranda and Caracol.

These events begin Monday, Sept. 14, from 3-5 p.m. Find more information on each day's happy hour here.

Sept. 15 — HTX Tech Tours

HECW will present two Tech Tours this year, offering attendees a closer look at the region's climatech scene. The Metro Innovation Tour & Market will visit Sugar Land Town Square, Shell Technology Center Houston, SLB West Houston Campus, University of Houston at Sugar Land, Ambrosia Space, NanoTech Materials and Syzygy Plasmonics. The Bay City South Innovation Tour will visit Sugar Land Town Square and Erthos Project Bravo in Matagorda County. Both tours will head to Astros Night at Daikin Park to wrap up the day.

These events are Tuesday, Sept. 15. Find more information here.

Sept. 15 — Meet the Activate Houston Cohort 2026 Fellows

Meet Activate's latest cohort, which was named this summer, and learn more about their hardtech and climate-focused solutions. Also meet founders from the organization’s 2025 cohort during Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 15, from 5-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Sept. 15 – Cypher Pilotathon and Startup Showcase

Grab coffee and take in keynotes and panels featuring leaders from Amperon, Aramco Ventures, New Climate Ventures, Syzygy Plasmonics and many others during this signature event, this year under the theme “The NEW Energy Industrial Revolution.” After lunch, hear pitches from 31 ventures during the Pilotathon. This year's event will also feature a startup showcase with interactive booths where attendees can meet founders and see demonstrations, plus an industry hub where corporates and investors can engage with emerging technologies and identify the pilots they want to move forward with.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 15, from 9 a.m.-5 p.m. at POST Houston. Get tickets here.

Sept. 15 — Houston Astros Energy Night

Catch a game and chat with fellow clean energy enthusiasts during Houston Astros Energy Night. The 'Stros take on the Kansas City Royals. A bonus? Dollar Hot Dog Night at Daikin Park.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 15, starting at 7:10 p.m. at Daikin Park. Get tickets here.

Sept. 16 — Greentown Labs Climatech Summit

Entrepreneurs, investors, corporate leaders, policymakers and philanthropists will head to Houston this month for the annual Greentown Climatetech Summit. Hear from Greentown CEO Georgina Campbell Flatter and keynote speaker Tim Latimer, CEO and co-founder of Houston geothermal unicorn Fervo Energy, plus numerous other engaging panels at the Ion. Then head to Greentown Labs for an open house and startup showcase, where attendees can meet some of the climatech incubators' members, before taking in the startup pitch competition followed by happy hour over at the Continental Club.

This event is Wednesday, Sept. 16, from 8 a.m.–9 p.m. at multiple locations. Register here.

Sept. 17 — Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum

Hear from clean energy startups from around the world at the 23rd annual Energy Tech Venture Forum. In addition to the pitches, this event will also host keynotes from Sean Maher, chief economist at Phillips 66, and Ira Ehrenpreis, founder and managing partner of DBL Partner. Panels will focus on technologies, infrastructure and commercialization strategies needed to deploy breakthrough innovations at scale. Following the event, the Rice Alliance will also name its annual “Most Promising” startup.

This event is Thursday, Sept. 17, from 7:30 a.m.-5 p.m. at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business. Register here.

Sept. 18 — Halliburton Labs Finalists Pitch Day

Hear from Halliburton Labs' latest cohort of entrepreneurs. The incubator aims to advance the companies’ commercialization with support from Halliburton's network, facilities and financing opportunities. Its latest cohort includes one company from Texas.

This event is Friday, Sept. 18, from 8 a.m.-noon at The Ion. Register here.

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