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Experts reveal top 6 predictions for oil and gas industry in 2025

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Texas energy experts look ahead to what's in store for oil and gas in 2025. Photo via Getty Images

If you tune in to the popular national narrative, 2025 will be the year the oil and gas industry receives a big, shiny gift in the form of the U.S. presidential election.

President Donald Trump’s vocal support for the industry throughout his campaign has casual observers betting on a blissful new era for oil and gas. Already there are plans to lift the pause on LNG export permits and remove tons of regulatory red tape; the nomination of Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, to lead the Department of Energy; and the new administration’s reported wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports and drilling — the list goes on.

While the outlook is positive in many of these areas, the perception of a “drill, baby, drill” bonanza masks a much more complicated reality. Oil and gas operators are facing a growing number of challenges, including intense pressure to reduce costs and boost productivity, and uncertainty caused by geopolitical factors such as the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine.

From our vantage point working with many of the country’s biggest operators and suppliers, we’re seeing activity that will have major implications for the industry — including the many companies based in and operating around Texas — in the coming year. Let’s dig in.

1. The industry’s cost crunch will continue — and intensify.
In 2024, oil and gas company leaders reported that rising costs and pressure to cut costs were two of the top three challenges they faced, according to a national Workrise-Newton X study that surveyed decision makers from operators and suppliers of all sizes. Respondents reported being asked to find an astonishing 40% to 60% reduction in supply chain-related costs across categories, on average.

Given the seemingly endless stream of geopolitical uncertainty (an expanded war in the Middle East, continued conflict after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s flailing economy, for starters), energy companies are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to achieving cost savings from suppliers.

With lower average oil prices expected in 2025, expect the cost crunch to continue. That’s because today’s operators have only two levers they can rely on to drive an increase in shareholder returns: reducing costs and increasing well productivity. Historically, the industry could rely on a third lever: an increase in oil demand, which, combined with limited ability to meet that demand with supply, led to steadily increasing oil prices over time. But that is no longer the case.

2. The consolidation trend in oil and gas will continue, but its shape will change.
In the wake of the great oil and gas M&A wave of 2024, the number of deals will decrease — but the number of dollars spent will not. Fewer, larger transactions will be the face of consolidation in the coming year. Expect newly merged entities to spin off non-core assets, which will create opportunities for private equity to return to the space.

This will be the year the oil and gas industry becomes investable again, with potential for multiple expansions across the entire value chain — both the E&P and the service side. From what we’re hearing in the industry, expect 2 times more startups in 2025 than there were this year.

With roughly the same amount of deals next year, but less volume and fewer total transactions, there will be more scale — more pressure from the top to push down service costs. This will lead to better service providers. But there will also be losers, and those are the service providers that cannot scale with their large clients.

3. Refilling SPR will become a national priority.
The outgoing administration pulled about 300 million barrels out of the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the coming year, replenishing those stores will be crucial.

There will be a steady buyer — the U.S. government — and it will reload the SPR to 600-plus million barrels. The government will be opportunistic, targeting the lowest price while taking care not to create too much imbalance in the supply-demand curve. A priority of the new administration will be to ensure they don’t create demand shocks, driving up prices for consumers while absorbing temporary oversupply that may occur due to seasonality (i.e. reduced demand in spring and fall).

The nation’s SPR was created following the 1973 oil embargo so that the U.S. has a cushion when there’s a supply disruption. With the current conflict in the Middle East continuing to intensify, the lessons learned in 1973 will be top of mind.

If OPEC + moves from defending prices to defending market share, we can expect their temporary production cuts to come back on market over time, causing oversupply and a resulting dramatic drop in oil prices. The U.S. government could absorb the balance, defending U.S. exploration and production companies while defending our country's interest in energy security. Refilling the SPR could create a hedge, protecting the American worker from this oversupply scenario.

4. The environment and emissions will remain a priority, and the economic viability of carbon capture will take center stage.
Despite speculation to the contrary, there will be a continuation of conservation efforts and emissions reduction among the biggest operators. The industry is not going to say, “Things have changed in Washington, so we no longer care about the environment.”

But there will be a shift in focus from energy alternatives that have a high degree of difficulty and cost keeping pace with increasing energy demand (think solar and wind) to technologies that are adjacent to the oil and gas industry’s core competencies. This means the industry will go all in on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, driven by both environmental concerns and operational benefits. This is already in motion with major players (EQT, Exxon, Chevron, Conoco and more) investing heavily in CCS capabilities.

As the world races to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, there will be a push for carbon capture to be economical and scalable — in part because of the need for CO2 for operations in the business. In the not-so-distant future, we believe some operators will be able to capture as much carbon as they're extracting from the earth.

5. The sharp rise in electricity demand to power AI data centers will rely heavily on natural gas.
Growth in technologies like generative AI and edge computing is expected to propel U.S. electricity demand to hit record highs in 2025 after staying flat for about two decades. This is a big national priority — President Trump has said we’ll need to more than double our electricity supply to lead the globe in artificial intelligence capabilities — and the urgent need for power will bring more investment in new natural gas infrastructure.

Natural gas is seen as a crucial “bridge fuel” in the energy transition. The U.S. became the world's top exporter of LNG in 2023 — and in the year ahead, brace for a huge push for pipeline infrastructure development in the range of 10-15 Bcf of new pipeline capacity in the next two to three years. (Translation: development on a massive scale, akin to railway construction during the Industrial Revolution.)

Big operators have already been working on deals to use natural gas and carbon capture to power the tech industry; given the significant increase in the electricity transmission capabilities needed to support fast-growing technologies, there will continue to be big opportunities behind the meter.

6. Regulatory processes will become more efficient, not less stringent.
This year will bring a focus on streamlining and aligning regulations, rather than on wholesale rollbacks. It’s not carte blanche for the industry to do whatever it wants, but rather a very aggressive challenge to the things that are holding operators back.

Historically, authorities have stacked regulation upon regulation and, as new problems arise, added even more regulations on top.There will be a very deliberate effort this year to challenge the regulations currently in place, to make sure they are aligned and not just stacked.

The new administration is signaling that it will be deliberate about regulation matching intent. They’ll examine whether or not particular policies are valuable to retain, or reconfigure, or realign with the industry to enable growth and also still protect the environment.

Easing the regulatory environment will enable growth in savings, lower project costs and speed to bring projects online. Another benefit of regulatory certainty: it will make large capital project financing more readily available. We’ve seen major gridlock in large project financing due to a lack of trust in the regulatory environment and potential for rules to change mid-project (see: Keystone XL). If they are certain the new administration will be supportive of projects that are viable and meet regulatory requirements, companies will once again be able to obtain the financing needed to accelerate development and commissioning of those projects.

But we shouldn’t mistake a new era of regulatory certainty for a regulatory free-for-all. Take LNG permits. They should be accelerated — but don’t expect a reduction in the actual level of environmental protection as a result. It currently takes 18 months to get a single permit to drill a well on federal land. It should take three weeks. Before 2020, it took about a month to obtain a federal permit.

2025 will be the year we begin to return to regulatory efficiency without sacrificing the protections the rules and policies set out to accomplish in the first place.

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Adam Hirschfeld and Jacob Gritte are executives at Austin-based Workrise, the leading labor provider and source-to-pay solution for energy companies throughout Texas and beyond.

From coal and consolidation to LNG and policy reform, here are eight predictions for the energy industry. Photo via Getty Images

8 energy industry predictions for 2024 from oil and gas experts

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We hate to start with the bad news, but let’s get it out of the way. As we look to the year ahead, we see numerous challenges for the industry, from labor and geopolitics to OPEC and continued polarization in Washington. Times are complicated, and nothing looks to be getting simpler.

But there’s good news, too. Natural gas use is booming, and the production, transmission, and processing companies that move decisively here will see substantial upside. Additionally, those who diversify their businesses can get in early on new ventures and accelerate their progress — see Devon with Fervo in geothermal. Local nuclear, hydrogen, and carbon capture all represent similar opportunities.

From our vantage point working with many of the biggest operators and suppliers, we’re seeing activity that will have major ramifications for the industry in the coming year.

Here are eight predictions about what’s around the corner — the good, the bad, and the hopeful. Let’s dig in.

Prediction 1: Historic growth in natural gas demand will drive more favorable policy, which will enable more rapid development of natural gas infrastructure and pipelines.

What we’ll see: Early signals show over a 10 percent demand increase for natural gas through the end of 2025, driven largely by international factors. Supply disruptions in Europe due to Ukraine, shutdowns internationally on key nuclear projects, and efforts to move from coal to natural gas both in Europe and the developing world are all contributing factors.

Why it matters: As global demand increases, more LNG export facilities will either be upgraded or built in the United States to increase our capacity to export natural gas to markets around the world. New capital will flow to infrastructure like LNG export facilities, and then the opposite infrastructure will need to be built to take it back to liquid. We are already seeing movement on additional new projects in the US, and expect it to ramp significantly in 2024 and beyond. This demand-side pressure, coupled with the fact that natural gas has made meaningful strides on emissions, will drive a much more favorable policy posture. We believe this will enable the development of natural gas infrastructure and pipelines, and accelerated investment in combined cycle natural gas plants.

Prediction 2: Next year will be the year oil and gas starts to walk the walk when it comes to the energy transition.

What we’ll see: The year ahead will bring a more realistic approach to the energy transition from the big oil and gas companies. We expect to inch closer to consensus in the industry on the need for both improved emissions reduction and increased diversification in order to meet the expectations of investors and secure new pathways to long-term growth.

While you may hear less about what companies are doing to drive the transition, they will actually be doing more via internal investment, consolidation in the form of M&A, and public/private partnerships.

Companies will also invest meaningfully in new technologies to lower their carbon footprints, and for operations of this size and scale, even incremental investments will have significant impact. Expect to see both organic and inorganic development as companies build new solutions internally and either invest in or acquire smaller companies that open up new pathways to emissions reduction, diversification, and ultimately growth.

This will result in even more mega deals as the majors and supermajors compete for a fixed number of assets (see: Chevron’s growing carbon capture interest and acquisition of Hess, Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer, Oxy’s moves to cement its position as the industry leader in the carbon capture arena).

Why it matters: Make no mistake — we are still operating in a world where a large portion of investments in diversification and emissions reduction occupy the realm of R&D. Testing. Probing what's possible. Companies won't be broadcasting it because they don't know for sure what is going to work. But what we'll see is more of those investments coming to fruition. And while they may be a drop in the bucket for a supermajor, even a small increase in spend for the Chevrons and Exxons of the world will represent meaningful progress on the ground.

Prediction 3: The oil and gas M&A wave will drive massive consolidation on the services side of the industry.

What we’ll see: As larger oil and gas companies acquire companies to secure new assets and build pathways to future growth, consolidation of the leadership teams that manage their operations will have ripple effects. This will significantly impact decisions on which vendors continue to service the operations of the company post-integration. Because of this, the vendors they choose to work with will massively grow as they are folded into the larger company’s operations, while the others will get cut out and see demand shrink considerably.

Why it matters: The services companies who win out will buy up the smaller companies to keep up with growth. Consolidation will shift the balance of power among companies, leaving those that lose out to either drastically shrink or go out of business entirely. As companies consolidate services under their go-to strategic vendors, these same vendors will gain significant pricing leverage over their clients. And more consolidation will mean less competition on the supply side of the equation, which will further drive up costs that are already rising, according to a recent NewtonX benchmark study on the oil and gas supply chain.

Prediction 4: The oil and gas industry will continue to struggle with a broken skills transfer pipeline.

What we’ll see: The industry is experiencing a massive age-out of seasoned employees, coupled with a lack of new talent choosing a career in oil and gas, leading to skills gaps and labor shortages. This is exacerbated by the sector’s longtime reliance on an apprenticeship model. At the same time, the industry is making strides with technology, empowering individual employees to do more than ever before. But these advancements require new and different skills which won't, at least in the next 12 months, help address the root problem here. Until then, these gaps have the potential to drive increasingly unsafe labor environments.

Why it matters: More than ever, oil and gas companies will need access to trusted vendors with experienced talent and advanced technology that can handle complex projects while maintaining the highest safety standards. The industry must stay more vigilant than ever to avoid increased rates of accidents and fatalities in the field due to the continued decline in available, qualified talent. And, of course, it must develop its current employees. Just under half of the respondents in our supply chain benchmark study reported that they were “investing in employee training and development” to meet their most pressing challenges.

Prediction 5: We’ll see the dawning of a nuclear renaissance.

What we’ll see: Nuclear energy will shake off the vestiges of its battered reputation as the public and private sectors begin to see it for what it is: a safe and reliable long-term solution for sustainable power generation. Expect small nuclear modular reactors (SMNRs) at home and abroad to drive nuclear investment and innovation, alongside continued reinvestment in existing large-scale infrastructure.

Why it matters: As nuclear returns to favor, localized nuclear power will evolve in the US. The federal government is already taking more of a pro-nuclear approach, actively investing in and retooling existing plants to increase the facilities’ lifespans. And there is Congressional support on both sides of the aisle. According to a new PEW study, half of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and two-thirds of Republicans now say they favor expanding nuclear power. Companies at the cutting edge of this sea change will begin to harness it to make hydrogen.

Prediction 6: We haven’t hit peak coal yet.

What we’ll see: Coal utilization and consumption, driven by the demand from the developing world — Africa, parts of Asia, and South America — have risen over the past 18 months. Expect this to continue. Despite the immense damage caused to the planet by the burning of coal, putting it at odds with the global goal of a sustainable future, countries lacking in sufficient power still see coal as a faster, less expensive way to provide the energy they need to grow their economies.

Why it matters: The rise of coal usage will continue to put us farther and farther behind as a planet until we can offer reliable, cost-effective, and cleaner alternatives. One alternative is natural gas power generation (which creates 50 to 60 percent fewer carbon emissions than coal power generation) in the regions where it is needed most. But given how polarized the climate debate has become, only time will tell whether LNG will be accepted as a viable bridge fuel in the court of public opinion

Prediction 7: As our progress falls behind schedule relative to 2050 goals, political tensions will continue to rise.

What we’ll see: We can expect the election year in the U.S. to accelerate the ideological polarization we have endured in the oil and gas vs. Renewables debate. At the same time, the planet will slide on the emissions scoreboard due to coal usage in the developing world, lack of movement on industrial commodities like steel, and the slow march of progress on getting renewable energy sources to be viable from an investment standpoint without the aid of government subsidies.

Why it matters: This will only stoke the anger from the left, and cause the right to dig in even further as oil and gas continues to carry the global energy supply and power the global economy. And paradoxically, if you accept that coal is the single worst enemy of climate progress, the polarization we see will only limit our ability to eradicate coal from our global energy mix. Why? Because there is no cleaner, more readily available alternative to natural gas. And we need comprehensive infrastructure and energy policy reform to unleash U.S. national gas on this global crisis. That’s why we’ve made the case that comprehensive policy reform should be Washington's top domestic priority over the next 12 months. It's crucial for both the economy and our national security.

Prediction 8: The influence of OPEC will be put to the test.

What we’ll see: Production elsewhere in the world, including Canada and the US, will continue to rise, which will challenge OPEC influence. Countries will re-evaluate trade routes and trading relationships due to increased buying options, which present the opportunity to lower costs for domestic consumers, kickstart consumer spending, and increase energy security.

Why it matters: Expect more extreme business and production tactics as OPEC members strain to maintain control of global energy markets. Take note of new alliances and trade partnerships begin to form and watch rising powers make their first moves on the global energy chessboard as we start to see a new world order take shape.

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Joshua Trott and Adam Hirschfeld are executives at Austin-based Workrise, which is a labor provider and supply chain solution for energy companies — including some in Houston.

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Houston-based NRG announces new CEO and succession plan

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Houston-based NRG Energy Inc. announced Jan. 7 that it has appointed Robert J. Gaudette as president and CEO. Gaudette took over as president effective Jan. 7 and will assume the role of CEO April 30, coinciding with the company's next stockholder meeting.

Gaudette, who previously served as executive vice president and president of NRG Business and Wholesale Operations, will succeed Lawrence Coben in the leadership roles. Coben will remain an advisor to NRG through the end of the year and will also continue to serve as board chair until April 30. Antonio Carrillo, lead independent director at NRG, will take over as board chair.

"Rob has played a central role in strengthening NRG’s position as a leader in our industry through strategic growth, operational excellence, and customer-focused innovation," Coben said in the news release. "He is a strong, decisive leader with extensive knowledge of our business, markets, and customers. The Board and I are confident that Rob is the right person to lead NRG forward and take the NRG rocket ship to new heights. I can’t wait to see what comes next.”

Gaudette has been with NRG since 2001. He has served as EVP of NRG Business and Market Operations since 2022 and president of NRG Business and Market Operations since 2024. In these roles, he led NRG’s power generation and oversaw its portfolio of commercial and industrial products and services as well as its market operations, according to the company.

He has held various executive leadership roles at NRG. He earned his bachelor's degree in chemistry from The College of William and Mary and an MBA at Rice University, where he was a Jones Scholar. He also served four years as an Army officer.

“It is an honor to be appointed NRG’s next CEO at this transformative time for the energy sector and our company,” Gaudette said in the release. “With NRG’s electricity, natural gas and smart home portfolio, we are ideally positioned to meet America’s evolving energy needs. I am grateful to Larry and all my NRG colleagues, both past and present, who built our great company and positioned us for the future. I look forward to leading our incredible team to deliver affordable, resilient power for the customers and communities we serve, while creating substantial value for our shareholders.”

In addition to its traditional power generation and electricity businesses, NRG has been working to develop a 1-gigawatt virtual power plant by connecting thousands of decentralized energy sources by 2035 in an effort to meet Texas’ surging energy demands.

The company announced partnerships last year with two California-based companies to bolster home battery use and grow its network. NRG has said the VPP could provide energy to 200,000 homes during peak demand.

10+ must-attend Houston energy events happening in Q1 2026

Mark Your Calendar

Editor's note: With the new year comes a new slate of must-attend events for those in the Houston energy sector. We've rounded up a host of events to put on your calendar for Q1, including some that you can attend this month. Plus, other premier annual events will return in February and March 2026 and are currently offering early-bird, discounted registration. Book now.

Jan. 7-8 — AAPG Subsurface Energy to Power Workshop

This two-day AAPG workshop explores the expanding role of natural gas, geothermal, hydrogen, lithium, and uranium in accelerating electricity capacity. Participants will examine innovative solutions designed to reduce reliance on long-distance transmission lines, pipelines, and other costly infrastructure. Throughout the workshop, attendees will gain insight into both the technical deployment of subsurface resources and the land, legal, and permitting factors that influence project development.

This event begins Jan. 7 at Norris Conference Center at CityCentre. Register here.

Jan. 19-22 — PPIM 2026

The 38th international Pipeline Pigging & Integrity Management Conference and Exhibition takes place over four days at the George R. Brown Convention Center and the Hilton Americas. This industry forum is devoted exclusively to pigging for pipeline maintenance and inspection, engineering assessment, repair, risk management, and NDE. Two days of courses will take place Jan. 19-20, followed by the conference on Jan. 21-22, and the exhibition running Jan. 20-22. Register here.

Jan. 22 — MicroSeismic - Romancing Energy Forum

This forum will feature raw, unfiltered stories from the pioneers who changed the trajectory of American Shale. Attendees will gain insights into the playbooks, decisions, data, and lessons learned behind the biggest discoveries and engineering triumphs in modern energy. Keynote speakers include Tom and Diane Gates of Gates Ranch.

This event begins at 8 am on Jan. 22 at Norris Conference Center at CityCentre. Register here.

Jan. 22 — Houston Downton Luncheon: Beyond the Barrel: Pricing, Transition, and Geopolitics in 2026

Women's Energy Network Houston Chapter hosts this January lunch and learn featuring guest speaker Ha Nguyen with S&P Global Energy. Nguyen will discuss the global energy outlook for 2026, with a focus on strategic drivers, such as decarbonization and EV adoption, and a look at Houston's crucial role in the future of the U.S. market.

This event begins at 11:30 am on Jan. 22 at The Houston Club. Register here.

Feb. 18-20 — NAPE Summit Week 2026

NAPE is the energy industry’s marketplace for the buying, selling, and trading of prospects and producing properties. NAPE brings together all industry disciplines and companies of all sizes, and in 2026 it will introduce three new hubs — offshore, data centers, and critical minerals — for more insights, access, and networking opportunities. The event includes a summit, exhibition, and more.

This event begins Feb. 18 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

Feb. 24-26 — 2026 Energy HPC & AI Conference

The 2026 Energy HPC & AI Conference marks the 19th year for the Ken Kennedy Institute to convene experts from the energy industry, academia, and national labs to share breakthroughs for HPC and AI technologies. The conference returns to Houston with engaging speaker sessions, a technical talk program, networking receptions, add-on workshops, and more.

This event begins Feb. 24 at Rice University's BRC. Register here.

Feb. 26 — February Transition on Tap

Mix and mingle at Greentown Labs' first Transition on Tap event of the year. Meet the accelerator's newest startup members, who are working on innovations ranging from methane capture to emissions-free manufacturing processes to carbon management.

This event begins at 5:30 pm on Feb. 26 at Greentown Labs Houston. Register here.

March 2-4 — The Future Energy Summit

The Future Energy Summit is a premier global event bringing together visionaries, industry leaders, and energy experts to shape the future of energy. The second edition of the conference will provide a platform for groundbreaking discussions, cutting-edge technologies, and transformative strategies that will accelerate the energy transition.

This event begins March 2. Register here.

March 10-12 — World Hydrogen & Carbon Americas

S&P Global Energy brings together two leading events — Carbon Management Americas and World Hydrogen North America — to form a new must-attend event for those in the hydrogen and carbon industries. More than 800 senior leaders from across the energy value chain will attend this event featuring immersive roundtable discussions, hands-on training, real-world case studies, and unparalleled networking opportunities.

This event begins March 10 at Marriott Marquis Houston. Register here.

March 23-27 — CERAWeek 2026

CERAWeek 2026 will focus on "Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology and Geopolitics." The industry's foremost thought leaders will convene in Houston to cultivate relationships and exchange transformative ideas during the annual event. Through the lens of 16 dynamic themes, CERAWeek 2026 will explore breakthroughs, cross-industry connections, and powerful partnerships that are accelerating the transformation of the global energy system.

This event begins March 23. Register here.

Japanese company launches solar module manufacturing at Houston-area plant

solar plant

A local subsidiary of a Japanese solar equipment manufacturer recently began producing solar modules at a new plant in Humble.

TOYO Co. Ltd.’s TOYO Solar LLC subsidiary can produce 1 gigawatt worth of solar modules per year at a 567,140-square-foot plant it leases in Lovett Industrial’s Nexus North Logistics Park on Greens Road. TOYO Solar’s next phase will accommodate 2.5 gigawatts’ worth of solar module manufacturing. The subsidiary eventually plans to expand manufacturing capacity to 6.5 gigawatts.

For now, TOYO Solar operates only one assembly line at the Humble plant. Once TOYO Solar has five assembly lines up and running, it could employ as many as 750 manufacturing workers there, according to Connect CRE.

TOYO says the plant enlarges its U.S. footprint “to be closer to the majority of its clients, meet the demand for American-made solar panels, and contribute to the growing demand for secure, sustainable energy solutions as demands on the grid continue to rise.”

Last month, TOYO purchased the remaining 24.99 percent stake in TOYO Solar to make it a wholly owned subsidiary. TOYO entered the Houston-area market through its 2024 acquisition of a majority stake in Solar Plus Technology Texas LLC.

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