ADVERTISEABOUT USSUBMIT A STORYSUBSCRIBETERMS OF USEPRIVACY POLICY
Visit our family of Brands

Experts reveal top 6 predictions for oil and gas industry in 2025

guest column

Texas energy experts look ahead to what's in store for oil and gas in 2025. Photo via Getty Images

If you tune in to the popular national narrative, 2025 will be the year the oil and gas industry receives a big, shiny gift in the form of the U.S. presidential election.

President Donald Trump’s vocal support for the industry throughout his campaign has casual observers betting on a blissful new era for oil and gas. Already there are plans to lift the pause on LNG export permits and remove tons of regulatory red tape; the nomination of Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, to lead the Department of Energy; and the new administration’s reported wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports and drilling — the list goes on.

While the outlook is positive in many of these areas, the perception of a “drill, baby, drill” bonanza masks a much more complicated reality. Oil and gas operators are facing a growing number of challenges, including intense pressure to reduce costs and boost productivity, and uncertainty caused by geopolitical factors such as the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine.

From our vantage point working with many of the country’s biggest operators and suppliers, we’re seeing activity that will have major implications for the industry — including the many companies based in and operating around Texas — in the coming year. Let’s dig in.

1. The industry’s cost crunch will continue — and intensify.
In 2024, oil and gas company leaders reported that rising costs and pressure to cut costs were two of the top three challenges they faced, according to a national Workrise-Newton X study that surveyed decision makers from operators and suppliers of all sizes. Respondents reported being asked to find an astonishing 40% to 60% reduction in supply chain-related costs across categories, on average.

Given the seemingly endless stream of geopolitical uncertainty (an expanded war in the Middle East, continued conflict after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s flailing economy, for starters), energy companies are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to achieving cost savings from suppliers.

With lower average oil prices expected in 2025, expect the cost crunch to continue. That’s because today’s operators have only two levers they can rely on to drive an increase in shareholder returns: reducing costs and increasing well productivity. Historically, the industry could rely on a third lever: an increase in oil demand, which, combined with limited ability to meet that demand with supply, led to steadily increasing oil prices over time. But that is no longer the case.

2. The consolidation trend in oil and gas will continue, but its shape will change.
In the wake of the great oil and gas M&A wave of 2024, the number of deals will decrease — but the number of dollars spent will not. Fewer, larger transactions will be the face of consolidation in the coming year. Expect newly merged entities to spin off non-core assets, which will create opportunities for private equity to return to the space.

This will be the year the oil and gas industry becomes investable again, with potential for multiple expansions across the entire value chain — both the E&P and the service side. From what we’re hearing in the industry, expect 2 times more startups in 2025 than there were this year.

With roughly the same amount of deals next year, but less volume and fewer total transactions, there will be more scale — more pressure from the top to push down service costs. This will lead to better service providers. But there will also be losers, and those are the service providers that cannot scale with their large clients.

3. Refilling SPR will become a national priority.
The outgoing administration pulled about 300 million barrels out of the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the coming year, replenishing those stores will be crucial.

There will be a steady buyer — the U.S. government — and it will reload the SPR to 600-plus million barrels. The government will be opportunistic, targeting the lowest price while taking care not to create too much imbalance in the supply-demand curve. A priority of the new administration will be to ensure they don’t create demand shocks, driving up prices for consumers while absorbing temporary oversupply that may occur due to seasonality (i.e. reduced demand in spring and fall).

The nation’s SPR was created following the 1973 oil embargo so that the U.S. has a cushion when there’s a supply disruption. With the current conflict in the Middle East continuing to intensify, the lessons learned in 1973 will be top of mind.

If OPEC + moves from defending prices to defending market share, we can expect their temporary production cuts to come back on market over time, causing oversupply and a resulting dramatic drop in oil prices. The U.S. government could absorb the balance, defending U.S. exploration and production companies while defending our country's interest in energy security. Refilling the SPR could create a hedge, protecting the American worker from this oversupply scenario.

4. The environment and emissions will remain a priority, and the economic viability of carbon capture will take center stage.
Despite speculation to the contrary, there will be a continuation of conservation efforts and emissions reduction among the biggest operators. The industry is not going to say, “Things have changed in Washington, so we no longer care about the environment.”

But there will be a shift in focus from energy alternatives that have a high degree of difficulty and cost keeping pace with increasing energy demand (think solar and wind) to technologies that are adjacent to the oil and gas industry’s core competencies. This means the industry will go all in on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, driven by both environmental concerns and operational benefits. This is already in motion with major players (EQT, Exxon, Chevron, Conoco and more) investing heavily in CCS capabilities.

As the world races to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, there will be a push for carbon capture to be economical and scalable — in part because of the need for CO2 for operations in the business. In the not-so-distant future, we believe some operators will be able to capture as much carbon as they're extracting from the earth.

5. The sharp rise in electricity demand to power AI data centers will rely heavily on natural gas.
Growth in technologies like generative AI and edge computing is expected to propel U.S. electricity demand to hit record highs in 2025 after staying flat for about two decades. This is a big national priority — President Trump has said we’ll need to more than double our electricity supply to lead the globe in artificial intelligence capabilities — and the urgent need for power will bring more investment in new natural gas infrastructure.

Natural gas is seen as a crucial “bridge fuel” in the energy transition. The U.S. became the world's top exporter of LNG in 2023 — and in the year ahead, brace for a huge push for pipeline infrastructure development in the range of 10-15 Bcf of new pipeline capacity in the next two to three years. (Translation: development on a massive scale, akin to railway construction during the Industrial Revolution.)

Big operators have already been working on deals to use natural gas and carbon capture to power the tech industry; given the significant increase in the electricity transmission capabilities needed to support fast-growing technologies, there will continue to be big opportunities behind the meter.

6. Regulatory processes will become more efficient, not less stringent.
This year will bring a focus on streamlining and aligning regulations, rather than on wholesale rollbacks. It’s not carte blanche for the industry to do whatever it wants, but rather a very aggressive challenge to the things that are holding operators back.

Historically, authorities have stacked regulation upon regulation and, as new problems arise, added even more regulations on top.There will be a very deliberate effort this year to challenge the regulations currently in place, to make sure they are aligned and not just stacked.

The new administration is signaling that it will be deliberate about regulation matching intent. They’ll examine whether or not particular policies are valuable to retain, or reconfigure, or realign with the industry to enable growth and also still protect the environment.

Easing the regulatory environment will enable growth in savings, lower project costs and speed to bring projects online. Another benefit of regulatory certainty: it will make large capital project financing more readily available. We’ve seen major gridlock in large project financing due to a lack of trust in the regulatory environment and potential for rules to change mid-project (see: Keystone XL). If they are certain the new administration will be supportive of projects that are viable and meet regulatory requirements, companies will once again be able to obtain the financing needed to accelerate development and commissioning of those projects.

But we shouldn’t mistake a new era of regulatory certainty for a regulatory free-for-all. Take LNG permits. They should be accelerated — but don’t expect a reduction in the actual level of environmental protection as a result. It currently takes 18 months to get a single permit to drill a well on federal land. It should take three weeks. Before 2020, it took about a month to obtain a federal permit.

2025 will be the year we begin to return to regulatory efficiency without sacrificing the protections the rules and policies set out to accomplish in the first place.

---

Adam Hirschfeld and Jacob Gritte are executives at Austin-based Workrise, the leading labor provider and source-to-pay solution for energy companies throughout Texas and beyond.

From coal and consolidation to LNG and policy reform, here are eight predictions for the energy industry. Photo via Getty Images

8 energy industry predictions for 2024 from oil and gas experts

guest column

We hate to start with the bad news, but let’s get it out of the way. As we look to the year ahead, we see numerous challenges for the industry, from labor and geopolitics to OPEC and continued polarization in Washington. Times are complicated, and nothing looks to be getting simpler.

But there’s good news, too. Natural gas use is booming, and the production, transmission, and processing companies that move decisively here will see substantial upside. Additionally, those who diversify their businesses can get in early on new ventures and accelerate their progress — see Devon with Fervo in geothermal. Local nuclear, hydrogen, and carbon capture all represent similar opportunities.

From our vantage point working with many of the biggest operators and suppliers, we’re seeing activity that will have major ramifications for the industry in the coming year.

Here are eight predictions about what’s around the corner — the good, the bad, and the hopeful. Let’s dig in.

Prediction 1: Historic growth in natural gas demand will drive more favorable policy, which will enable more rapid development of natural gas infrastructure and pipelines.

What we’ll see: Early signals show over a 10 percent demand increase for natural gas through the end of 2025, driven largely by international factors. Supply disruptions in Europe due to Ukraine, shutdowns internationally on key nuclear projects, and efforts to move from coal to natural gas both in Europe and the developing world are all contributing factors.

Why it matters: As global demand increases, more LNG export facilities will either be upgraded or built in the United States to increase our capacity to export natural gas to markets around the world. New capital will flow to infrastructure like LNG export facilities, and then the opposite infrastructure will need to be built to take it back to liquid. We are already seeing movement on additional new projects in the US, and expect it to ramp significantly in 2024 and beyond. This demand-side pressure, coupled with the fact that natural gas has made meaningful strides on emissions, will drive a much more favorable policy posture. We believe this will enable the development of natural gas infrastructure and pipelines, and accelerated investment in combined cycle natural gas plants.

Prediction 2: Next year will be the year oil and gas starts to walk the walk when it comes to the energy transition.

What we’ll see: The year ahead will bring a more realistic approach to the energy transition from the big oil and gas companies. We expect to inch closer to consensus in the industry on the need for both improved emissions reduction and increased diversification in order to meet the expectations of investors and secure new pathways to long-term growth.

While you may hear less about what companies are doing to drive the transition, they will actually be doing more via internal investment, consolidation in the form of M&A, and public/private partnerships.

Companies will also invest meaningfully in new technologies to lower their carbon footprints, and for operations of this size and scale, even incremental investments will have significant impact. Expect to see both organic and inorganic development as companies build new solutions internally and either invest in or acquire smaller companies that open up new pathways to emissions reduction, diversification, and ultimately growth.

This will result in even more mega deals as the majors and supermajors compete for a fixed number of assets (see: Chevron’s growing carbon capture interest and acquisition of Hess, Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer, Oxy’s moves to cement its position as the industry leader in the carbon capture arena).

Why it matters: Make no mistake — we are still operating in a world where a large portion of investments in diversification and emissions reduction occupy the realm of R&D. Testing. Probing what's possible. Companies won't be broadcasting it because they don't know for sure what is going to work. But what we'll see is more of those investments coming to fruition. And while they may be a drop in the bucket for a supermajor, even a small increase in spend for the Chevrons and Exxons of the world will represent meaningful progress on the ground.

Prediction 3: The oil and gas M&A wave will drive massive consolidation on the services side of the industry.

What we’ll see: As larger oil and gas companies acquire companies to secure new assets and build pathways to future growth, consolidation of the leadership teams that manage their operations will have ripple effects. This will significantly impact decisions on which vendors continue to service the operations of the company post-integration. Because of this, the vendors they choose to work with will massively grow as they are folded into the larger company’s operations, while the others will get cut out and see demand shrink considerably.

Why it matters: The services companies who win out will buy up the smaller companies to keep up with growth. Consolidation will shift the balance of power among companies, leaving those that lose out to either drastically shrink or go out of business entirely. As companies consolidate services under their go-to strategic vendors, these same vendors will gain significant pricing leverage over their clients. And more consolidation will mean less competition on the supply side of the equation, which will further drive up costs that are already rising, according to a recent NewtonX benchmark study on the oil and gas supply chain.

Prediction 4: The oil and gas industry will continue to struggle with a broken skills transfer pipeline.

What we’ll see: The industry is experiencing a massive age-out of seasoned employees, coupled with a lack of new talent choosing a career in oil and gas, leading to skills gaps and labor shortages. This is exacerbated by the sector’s longtime reliance on an apprenticeship model. At the same time, the industry is making strides with technology, empowering individual employees to do more than ever before. But these advancements require new and different skills which won't, at least in the next 12 months, help address the root problem here. Until then, these gaps have the potential to drive increasingly unsafe labor environments.

Why it matters: More than ever, oil and gas companies will need access to trusted vendors with experienced talent and advanced technology that can handle complex projects while maintaining the highest safety standards. The industry must stay more vigilant than ever to avoid increased rates of accidents and fatalities in the field due to the continued decline in available, qualified talent. And, of course, it must develop its current employees. Just under half of the respondents in our supply chain benchmark study reported that they were “investing in employee training and development” to meet their most pressing challenges.

Prediction 5: We’ll see the dawning of a nuclear renaissance.

What we’ll see: Nuclear energy will shake off the vestiges of its battered reputation as the public and private sectors begin to see it for what it is: a safe and reliable long-term solution for sustainable power generation. Expect small nuclear modular reactors (SMNRs) at home and abroad to drive nuclear investment and innovation, alongside continued reinvestment in existing large-scale infrastructure.

Why it matters: As nuclear returns to favor, localized nuclear power will evolve in the US. The federal government is already taking more of a pro-nuclear approach, actively investing in and retooling existing plants to increase the facilities’ lifespans. And there is Congressional support on both sides of the aisle. According to a new PEW study, half of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and two-thirds of Republicans now say they favor expanding nuclear power. Companies at the cutting edge of this sea change will begin to harness it to make hydrogen.

Prediction 6: We haven’t hit peak coal yet.

What we’ll see: Coal utilization and consumption, driven by the demand from the developing world — Africa, parts of Asia, and South America — have risen over the past 18 months. Expect this to continue. Despite the immense damage caused to the planet by the burning of coal, putting it at odds with the global goal of a sustainable future, countries lacking in sufficient power still see coal as a faster, less expensive way to provide the energy they need to grow their economies.

Why it matters: The rise of coal usage will continue to put us farther and farther behind as a planet until we can offer reliable, cost-effective, and cleaner alternatives. One alternative is natural gas power generation (which creates 50 to 60 percent fewer carbon emissions than coal power generation) in the regions where it is needed most. But given how polarized the climate debate has become, only time will tell whether LNG will be accepted as a viable bridge fuel in the court of public opinion

Prediction 7: As our progress falls behind schedule relative to 2050 goals, political tensions will continue to rise.

What we’ll see: We can expect the election year in the U.S. to accelerate the ideological polarization we have endured in the oil and gas vs. Renewables debate. At the same time, the planet will slide on the emissions scoreboard due to coal usage in the developing world, lack of movement on industrial commodities like steel, and the slow march of progress on getting renewable energy sources to be viable from an investment standpoint without the aid of government subsidies.

Why it matters: This will only stoke the anger from the left, and cause the right to dig in even further as oil and gas continues to carry the global energy supply and power the global economy. And paradoxically, if you accept that coal is the single worst enemy of climate progress, the polarization we see will only limit our ability to eradicate coal from our global energy mix. Why? Because there is no cleaner, more readily available alternative to natural gas. And we need comprehensive infrastructure and energy policy reform to unleash U.S. national gas on this global crisis. That’s why we’ve made the case that comprehensive policy reform should be Washington's top domestic priority over the next 12 months. It's crucial for both the economy and our national security.

Prediction 8: The influence of OPEC will be put to the test.

What we’ll see: Production elsewhere in the world, including Canada and the US, will continue to rise, which will challenge OPEC influence. Countries will re-evaluate trade routes and trading relationships due to increased buying options, which present the opportunity to lower costs for domestic consumers, kickstart consumer spending, and increase energy security.

Why it matters: Expect more extreme business and production tactics as OPEC members strain to maintain control of global energy markets. Take note of new alliances and trade partnerships begin to form and watch rising powers make their first moves on the global energy chessboard as we start to see a new world order take shape.

__

Joshua Trott and Adam Hirschfeld are executives at Austin-based Workrise, which is a labor provider and supply chain solution for energy companies — including some in Houston.

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

What EPA’s carbon capture and storage permitting announcement means for Texas

The View From HETI

Earlier this month, Texas was granted authority by the federal government for permitting carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. This move could help the U.S. cut emissions while staying competitive in the global energy game.

In June, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed approving Texas’ request for permitting authority under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) for Class VI underground injection wells for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the state under a process called “primacy.” The State of Texas already has permitting authority for other injection wells (Classes I-V). In November, the EPA announced final approval of Texas’ primacy request.

Why This Matters for Texas

Texas is the headquarters for virtually every segment of the energy industry. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Texas is the top crude oil- and natural-gas producing state in the nation. The state has more crude oil refineries and refining capacity than any other state in the nation. Texas produces more electricity than any other state, and the demand for electricity will grow with the development of data centers and artificial intelligence (AI). Simply put, Texas is the backbone of the nation’s energy security and competitiveness. For the nation’s economic competitiveness, it is important that Texas continue to produce more energy with less emissions. CCS is widely regarded as necessary to continue to lower the emissions intensity of the U.S. industrial sector for critical products including power generation, refining, chemicals, steel, cement and other products that our country and world demand.

The Greater Houston Partnership’s Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI) has supported efforts to bring CCUS to a broader commercial scale since the initiative’s inception.

“Texas is uniquely positioned to deploy CCUS at scale, with world-class geology, a skilled workforce, and strong infrastructure. We applaud the EPA for granting Texas the authority to permit wells for CCUS, which we believe will result in safe and efficient permitting while advancing technologies that strengthen Texas’ leadership in the global energy market,” said Jane Stricker, Executive Director of HETI and Senior Vice President, Energy Transition at the Greater Houston Partnership.

What is Primacy, and Why is it Important?

Primacy grants permitting authority for Class VI wells for CCS to the Texas Railroad Commission instead of the EPA. Texas is required to follow the same strict standards the EPA uses. The EPA has reviewed Texas’ application and determined it meets those requirements.

Research suggests that Texas has strong geological formations for CO2 storage, a world-class, highly skilled workforce, and robust infrastructure primed for the deployment of CCS. However, federal permitting delays are stalling billions of dollars of private sector investment. There are currently 257 applications under review, nearly one-quarter of which are located in Texas, with some applications surpassing the EPA’s target review period of 24 months. This creates uncertainty for developers and investors and keeps thousands of potential jobs out of reach. By transferring permitting to the state, Texas will apply local resources to issue Class VI permits across the states in a timely manner.

Texas joins North Dakota, Wyoming, Louisiana, West Virginia and Arizona with the authority for regulating Class VI wells.

Is CCS safe?

A 2025 study by Texas A&M University reviewed operational history and academic literature on CCS in the United States. The study analyzed common concerns related to CCS efficacy and safety and found that CCS reduces pollutants including carbon dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides. The research found that the risks of CCS present a low probability of impacting human life and can be effectively managed through existing state and federal regulations and technical monitoring and safety protocols.

What’s Next?

The final rule granting Texas’ primacy will become effective 30 days after publication in the Federal Register. Once in effect, the Texas Railroad Commission will be responsible for permitting wells for carbon capture, use and storage and enforcing their safe operation.

———

This article originally ran on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

Houston energy expert: How the U.S. can turn carbon into growth

Guets Column

For the past 40 years, climate policy has often felt like two steps forward, one step back. Regulations shift with politics, incentives get diluted, and long-term aspirations like net-zero by 2050 seem increasingly out of reach. Yet greenhouse gases continue to rise, and the challenges they pose are not going away.

This matters because the costs are real. Extreme weather is already straining U.S. power grids, damaging homes, and disrupting supply chains. Communities are spending more on recovery while businesses face rising risks to operations and assets. So, how can the U.S. prepare and respond?

The Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES) points to two complementary strategies. First, invest in large-scale public adaptation to protect communities and infrastructure. Second, reframe carbon as a resource, not just a waste stream to be reduced.

Why Focusing on Emissions Alone Falls Short

Peter Hartley argues that decades of global efforts to curb emissions have done little to slow the rise of CO₂. International cooperation is difficult, the costs are felt immediately, and the technologies needed are often expensive. Emissions reduction has been the central policy tool for decades, and it has been neither sufficient nor effective.

One practical response is adaptation, which means preparing for climate impacts we can’t avoid. Some of these measures are private, taken by households or businesses to reduce their own risks, such as farmers shifting crop types, property owners installing fire-resistant materials, or families improving insulation. Others are public goods that require policy action. These include building stronger levees and flood defenses, reinforcing power grids, upgrading water systems, revising building codes, and planning for wildfire risks. Such efforts protect people today while reducing long-term costs, and they work regardless of the source of extreme weather. Adaptation also does not depend on global consensus; each country, state, or city can act in its own interest. Many of these measures even deliver benefits beyond weather resilience, such as stronger infrastructure and improved security against broader threats.

McKinsey research reinforces this logic. Without a rapid scale-up of climate adaptation, the U.S. will face serious socioeconomic risks. These include damage to infrastructure and property from storms, floods, and heat waves, as well as greater stress on vulnerable populations and disrupted supply chains.

Making Carbon Work for Us

While adaptation addresses immediate risks, Ken Medlock points to a longer-term opportunity: turning carbon into value.

Carbon can serve as a building block for advanced materials in construction, transportation, power transmission, and agriculture. Biochar to improve soils, carbon composites for stronger and lighter products, and next-generation fuels are all examples. As Ken points out, carbon-to-value strategies can extend into construction and infrastructure. Beyond creating new markets, carbon conversion could deliver lighter and more resilient materials, helping the U.S. build infrastructure that is stronger, longer-lasting, and better able to withstand climate stress.

A carbon-to-value economy can help the U.S. strengthen its manufacturing base and position itself as a global supplier of advanced materials.

These solutions are not yet economic at scale, but smart policies can change that. Expanding the 45Q tax credit to cover carbon use in materials, funding research at DOE labs and universities, and supporting early markets would help create the conditions for growth.

Conclusion

Instead of choosing between “doing nothing” and “net zero at any cost,” we need a third approach that invests in both climate resilience and carbon conversion.

Public adaptation strengthens and improves the infrastructure we rely on every day, including levees, power grids, water systems, and building standards that protect communities from climate shocks. Carbon-to-value strategies can complement these efforts by creating lighter, more resilient carbon-based infrastructure.

CES suggests this combination is a pragmatic way forward. As Peter emphasizes, adaptation works because it is in each nation’s self-interest. And as Ken reminds us, “The U.S. has a comparative advantage in carbon. Leveraging it to its fullest extent puts the U.S. in a position of strength now and well into the future.”

-----------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

UH launches new series on AI’s impact on the energy sector

where to be

The University of Houston's Energy Transition Institute has launched a new Energy in Action Seminar Series that will feature talks focused on the intersection of the energy industry and digitization trends, such as AI.

The first event in the series took place earlier this month, featuring Raiford Smith, global market lead for power & energy for Google Cloud, who presented "AI, Energy, and Data Centers." The talk discussed the benefits of widespread AI adoption for growth in traditional and low-carbon energy resources.

Future events include:

“Through this timely and informative seminar series, ETI will bring together energy professionals, researchers, students, and anyone working in or around digital innovation in energy," Debalina Sengupta, chief operating officer of ETI, said in a news release. "We encourage industry members and students to register now and reap the benefits of participating in both the seminar and the reception, which presents a fantastic opportunity to stay ahead of industry developments and build a strong network in the Greater Houston energy ecosystem.”

The series is slated to continue throughout 2026. Each presentation is followed by a one-hour networking reception. Register for the next event here.

View All Listings