How did the IRA affect energy transition project development? Experts discussed the positive impacts — as well as the challenges still to overcome. Photo courtesy of Renewable Energy Alliance Houston

It's been officially a year since the Inflation Reduction Act was enacted, so it's no surprise that looking at the IRA's impact dominated the discussion at a recent industry event.

The second annual Renewable Energy Leadership Conference, presented by Renewable Energy Alliance Houston and Rice Business Executive Education, featured thought leadership from 20 experts on Tuesday, August 22. While some panels zeroed in on hiring and loan options for energy transition companies, the day's program kicked off with a couple panels looking both back and forward on the IRA.

When looking at the IRA's impact, the experts identified a few key things. Here's what they said at the conference.

Going beyond tax credits and regulation

Greg Matlock, EY's global energy and resources industry tax leader, kicked off the IRA discussion after John Berger, CEO of Sunnova, gave a keynote address.

Matlock set the scene for the IRA, explaining that previous legislation incentivizing clean energy changes mostly stayed within regulation and tax credits. Credits as a tax policy fail to incentivize organizations that are, for various reasons, are tax exempt or are already paying insignificant taxes. The fundamental switch of the IRA was to a "want to" rather than a "have to."

"Everyone has had aspirations, but with aspirations without capital, it's hard to get movement," Matlock says. "But what the IRA did was create a liquidity in the market and added access to an investor base. Now you're pairing aspirations and capital, and now you're seeing movement in the market."

The IRA, Matlock continues, also got the ball rolling on expanding requirements for tax incentives. Previously, a specific technology has to be clearly identified to be qualified for a credit. Moving forward, the IRA improved this qualification process and in the future, there will be be technology neutral incentives.

One thing Matlock also highlighted was the limitations of tax credits — dollar for dollar credit.

"Two years ago, if you called an organization that was tax exempt (about) a project that generates tax credits, why would that want that?" Matlock says. "For the first time, you can sell federal tax credits — not all of them — for cash and tax free to businesses who are paying taxes."

Explaining that there are limitations, Matlock says this process had a significant impact encouraging movement in this space — especially from surprising sources.

"We're seeing companies that have absolutely no connectivity to our energy industry making investments through the purchase of tax credits to fund the development of projects," Matlock says.

A focus on carbon capture and hydrogen

Matlock continues to explain how carbon capture and hydrogen became two case studies for the impact of the IRA.

Prior to the IRA, over 16 countries incentivized hydrogen production, he explains, and the United States was not one of them.

"With the signing of the IRA, we went from the worst to the first," Matlock says.

Carbon capture development was directed more at traditional energy industries. The IRA enactment represented a switch for these companies from regulatory moves to incentivization, which has been more effective in general, Matlock says.

Over the past year, according to the American Clean Power Association, more than $271 billion in investment in clean energy projects has occurred since the IRA was enacted. When it comes to jobs, over 170,000 clean energy jobs have been announced since the IRA.

Problematic permitting and pricing volatility 

In a subsequent panel, the three thought leaders looked at the IRA a bit more critically. While the IRA spurred momentum, it also shined a spotlight on some of the industry's challenges.

"The IRA for developers has been very positive. It provided certainty and allowed developers and investors alike to plan long term," says Omar Aboudaher, senior vice president of development for Leeward Renewable Energy. "With that comes challenges, including exacerbating some existing problems with permitting."

Aboudaher explains that the IRA-inspired burst of projects has caused a lot more permits for the increase of development. And, he adds, there's not a concentrated effort. It's happening in silos on the various levels of government.

"On the permitting side, there's a big need to streamline permitting," Aboudaher says. "In some parts of the country, it can take 6 to 10 years to permit your project."

On the investor side, it's also a problem, adds Fred Day, managing director of investments at Brookfield Asset Management.

"Even though we have this IRA, a lack of permitting reform does create a bottleneck," he says.

Another challenge is a disconnect between supply and demand. While the IRA has incentivized solar energy generation per hour of energy, meaning that its cheaper than ever to make energy via solar panels, there's not yet the demand infrastructure for this energy. This incentivization structure has already been in place for wind power.

"I think it's going to be a real problem. It's a real problem with wind today," Doug Moorehead, COO of Broad Reach Power, says, explaining that there's volatility in pricing. "When the wind is high, prices are really low. When wind is low, prices are high."

All of this is leading to an imbalance of market demand and supply, he continues. Jessica Adkins, partner at Sidley Austin LLP and moderator, adds that there's built in volatility for solar since solar energy is confined to the time of day when the sun is out.

"Any time you're incentivize to produce regardless of demand, it's going to be an issue," Moorehead says.

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4 Houston researchers awarded projects in DOE's Genesis Mission

federal funding

The U.S. Department of Energy has named the nearly 300 projects selected under the Trump Administration's Genesis Mission, which aims to address some of the largest science and technology challenges in the country. The group features four projects from Houston universities and companies.

The initiative aims to unite government, industry, academia and philanthropy to lead to breakthroughs in energy, scientific discovery and national security, according to a release.

The selected projects feature 87 led by DOE and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) National Laboratories, 168 led by universities, 19 led by companies and 4 led by nonprofit organizations—totalling 342 participating institutions.

“America has no shortage of bold ideas or talented scientists, and the response to the Genesis Mission proves that,” U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said in a news release. “The 278 projects selected today represent the very best of our nation’s scientific enterprise. The remarkable number of high-quality proposals we received demonstrates that America’s innovation pipeline is strong, and it points to even greater opportunities for future investment and continued expansion of the Genesis Mission portfolio.”

Twelve Texas-based projects were selected among the 278. The Houston projects and their researchers include:

Caroline Ajo-Franklin

Ajo-Franklin recieved a Phase I grant for her project "Predictive AI to Map Point Mutation Effects on Protein Function: Measurement and Biosynthesis of Isoprenoids." Ajo-Franklin is a professor of biosciences at Rice University, a CPRIT Scholar in Cancer Research and member of the Rice Synthetic Biology Institute. The project aims to accelerate the engineering of microbes that can produce isoprenoids, which are natural compounds that could replace petroleum-derived fuels, solvents and materials.

“This project creates a continuous feedback loop in which AI guides experiments and each experiment generates more detailed data to better hone the AI model,” Ajo-Franklin said in a news release. “In addition, it demonstrates the extraordinary star power Rice has recruited in protein engineering and synthetic biology.”

Anastasios Kyrillidis

Kyrillidis recived a Phase I grant for his project "Cracking the VQA Optimization Bottleneck: AI Methods for Quantum Chemistry and Materials." Kyrillidis is the Noah Harding Associate Professor of Computer Science at Rice and a member of the Ken Kennedy Institute. The project aims to develop AI tools to resolve bottlenecks in quantum computing for chemistry and materials research.

“Our goal is to replace fragile, hand-tuned optimization methods with intelligent systems that can learn from quantum computations while still operating within frameworks that provide strong mathematical guarantees,” Kyrillidis added in the release.

Myoungkyu Lee

Lee received a nearly $750,000 Phase I grant for his project "Physics-Informed AI Surrogates for Turbulent Forced Convection in Energy System." Lee is an assistant professor of mechanical aerospace engineering at the University of Houston. Lee will collaborate with researchers from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and University of Pennsylvania on the project and develop artificial intelligence to accelerate the design of materials for advanced nuclear fission and fusion reactors.

“The goal is to develop a tool that runs much faster than today’s most detailed simulations while keeping errors small,” Lee said in a news release. “If successful, the approach could support better heat-transfer predictions for molten-salt reactor design and provide a starting point for studying heat removal in fusion blankets. This is one contribution among many toward reliable, carbon-free energy.”

Amit Padhi

Padhi recieved a grant for his project "Probabilistic Inference of Subsurface Fracture Connectivity for Stimulation Control with Physics-Informed AI." Padhi is a scientific advisor for Halliburton.

The DOE first called for applications for the Genesis Mission in March. At the time, the DOE shared that it would grant approximately $293 million to the selected teams via Phase I awards, ranging from $500,000 to $750,000 for nine-month project periods, and Phase II awards, for $6 million to $15 million over a three-year project period.

Since then, however, the initiative has grown with 15 federal agencies now granting research awards and funding opportunities under the Genesis umbrella. The White House announced this week that it had secured more than $5 billion in federal commitments to expand the initiative.

SLB teams with Liberty Energy on modular power for AI data centers

ai alliance

Houston-headquartered SLB and Denver-based Liberty Energy Inc. announced a strategic agreement this month to support the rapid growth of new data center capacity.

Under the agreement, SLB will supply modular data center infrastructure and oversee large-scale execution, while Liberty will provide modular power generation systems and behind-the-meter power management technology for developers looking to add capacity. According to Reuters, the power will come from natural gas generation.

“The bottleneck in AI infrastructure is no longer just compute. It is the ability to deliver infrastructure and power on the timelines the market now demands,” Gavin Rennick, president of SLB’s New Energy and Industrial business, said in a news release. “By bringing together complementary infrastructure and power capabilities, we will help developers accelerate deployment of new data center capacity.”

The companies seek to specifically offer the modular technologies in areas without traditional grid connections or where grid capacity is limited.

They also aim to improve the "efficiency, flexibility and environmental performance of future data center energy systems," potentially through solutions like hybrid power systems and digital energy management, according to the news release.

Goldman Sachs estimates that U.S. data center capacity will more than double from 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 66 gigawatts in 2027. Other reports predict that Houston and Texas will be home to a significant portion of the data center boom, with capacity in the city and the state also expected to double in the next few years.

“The scale and complexity of AI energy infrastructure is fundamentally changing how power systems are built and deployed,” Ron Gusek, CEO of Liberty Energy, added in the release. “Liberty’s comprehensive power service platform is engineered to meet this transition, as customers increasingly prioritize tailored, integrated solutions. Building on our long-standing relationship with SLB, we are excited to bring power solutions that address immediate capacity constraints while supporting the next generation of energy systems.”

SLB sold its onshore hydraulic fracturing business in the United States and Canada to Liberty Energy in December 2020 in exchange for a 37 percent equity interest in the company.

New Rice study details how carbon capture could reduce AI data center emissions

by the numbers

A new study out of Rice University points to carbon capture and storage methods as pivotal solutions to addressing emissions from AI-driven data centers.

The study was authored by Hon Chung Lau, an adjunct professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice University and founder of Low Carbon Energies LLC, and Steve C. Tsai, an energy transition consultant at Low Carbon Energies LLC, and published in the journal Energy & Fuels.

According to the study, U.S. data center power capacity could more than quadruple in five years, growing from 40 gigawatts in 2025 to 169 gigawatts by 2030. Without proper regulation of emissions, the report estimates that carbon dioxide produced by fossil-fuel power plants supplying electricity to data centers could grow at the same scale, increasing from 90 million metric tons to more than 404 million metric tons over the same time period.

The researchers analyzed publicly available data on announced U.S. data centers, which included energy sources, locations, and projected power capacity before estimating data center-related carbon emissions based on each state’s electricity mix. From there, they examined whether those emissions could be captured and stored underground in saline aquifers.

The team estimates that 34 states have enough saline aquifer storage capacity to store more than 100 years of projected data center-related carbon dioxide emissions beyond 2030. Aquifers could store an estimated 59 million metric tons of data center-related carbon dioxide, or about 66 percent of the sector’s emissions in 2025. However, that calculation could grow to 299 million metric tons, or about 74 percent of projected data center-related emissions by 2030.

The researchers found that more than 90 percent of data center-related carbon dioxide emissions could potentially be mitigated through carbon capture and storage when out-of-state storage options are included, even though they note that carbon capture isn’t the only solution.

“It does show that the geology exists to make a meaningful impact, especially in states where data center growth is strongest,” Lau said in a news release.

Rapid growth in states including Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Utah and Illinois was considered in the study. According to the findings, Texas would need to add 25 gigawatts of power capacity by 2030 to meet projected data center demand, as data centers require reliable electricity 24/7.

“Data centers are becoming one of the defining energy challenges of the AI era,” Lau added in the news release. “The question is not only whether we can build enough computing infrastructure, but whether we can power it in a way that is reliable, affordable and compatible with decarbonization goals.”