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Reshaping the Texas grid: The impact of EVs, AI, renewables, and extreme weather

guest column

While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

Did you catch those images of idle generators that CenterPoint had on standby during Hurricane Beryl? With over 2 million people in the Houston area left in the dark, many were wondering, "if the generators are ready, why didn’t they get used?" It seems like power outages are becoming just as common as the severe storms themselves.

But as Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES) explains, it's not a simple fix. The outages during Hurricane Beryl were different from what we saw during Winter Storm Uri. This time, with so many poles and wires down, those generators couldn’t be put to use. It’s a reminder that each storm brings its own set of challenges, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution when it comes to keeping the lights on. While extreme weather is one of the leading threats to our electric grid, it's certainly not the only one adding strain on our power infrastructure.

The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicles (EVs) is transforming the way we live, work, and move. Beneath the surface of these technological marvels lies a challenge that could define the future of our energy infrastructure: they all depend on our electrical grid. As AI-powered data centers and a growing fleet of EVs demand more power than ever before, our grid—already under pressure from extreme weather events and an increasing reliance on renewable energy—faces a critical test. The question goes beyond whether our grid can keep up, but rather focuses on how we can ensure it evolves to support the innovations of tomorrow without compromising reliability today. The intersection of these emerging technologies with our aging energy infrastructure poses a dilemma that policymakers, industry leaders, and consumers must address.

Julie Cohn, Nonresident Fellow at the Center for Energy Studies at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, presents several key findings and recommendations to address concerns about the reliability of the Texas energy grid in her Energy Insight. She suggests there’s at least six developments unfolding that will affect the reliability of the Texas Interconnected System, operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the regional distribution networks operated by regulated utilities.

Let’s dig deeper into some of these issues:

AI

AI requires substantial computational power, particularly in data centers that house servers processing vast amounts of data. These data centers consume large amounts of electricity, putting additional strain on the grid.

According to McKinsey & Company, a single hyperscale data center can consume as much electricity as 80,000 homes combined. In 2022, data centers consumed about 200 terawatt-hours (TWh), close to 4 percent, of the total electricity used in the United States and approximately 460 TWh globally. That’s nearly the consumption of the entire State of Texas, which consumed approximately 475.4 TWh of electricity in the same year. However, this percentage is expected to increase significantly as demand for data processing and storage continues to grow. In 2026, data centers are expected to account for 6 percent, almost 260 TWh, of total electricity demand in the U.S.

EVs

According to the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, approximately 170,000 EVs have been registered across the state of Texas as of 2023, with Texas receiving $408 million in funding to expand its EV charging network. As Cohn suggests, a central question remains: Where will these emerging economic drivers for Texas, such as EVs and AI, obtain their electric power?

EVs draw power from the grid every time they’re plugged in to charge. This may come as a shock to some, but “the thing that’s recharging EV batteries in ERCOT right now, is natural gas,” says Medlock. And as McKinsey & Company explains, the impact of switching to EVs on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will largely depend on how much GHG is produced by the electricity used to charge them. This adds a layer of complexity as regulators look to decarbonize the power sector.

Depending on the charger, a single EV fast charger can pull anywhere from 50 kW to 350 kW of electricity per hour. Now, factor in the constant energy drain from data centers, our growing population using power for homes and businesses, and then account for the sudden impact of severe environmental events—which have increased in frequency and intensity—and it’s clear: Houston… we have a problem.

The Weather Wildcard

Texas is gearing up for its 2025 legislative session on January 14. The state's electricity grid once again stands at the forefront of political discussions. The question is not just whether our power will stay on during the next winter storm or scorching summer heatwave, but whether our approach to grid management is sustainable in the face of mounting challenges. The events of recent years, from Winter Storm Uri to unprecedented heatwaves, have exposed significant vulnerabilities in the Texas electricity grid, and while legislative measures have been taken, they have been largely patchwork solutions.

Winter Storm Uri in 2021 was a wake-up call, but it wasn’t the first or last extreme weather event to test the Texas grid. With deep freezes, scorching summers, and unpredictable storms becoming the norm rather than the exception, it is clear that the grid’s current state is not capable of withstanding these extremes. The measures passed in 2021 and 2023 were steps in the right direction, but they were reactive, not proactive. They focused on strengthening the grid against cold weather, yet extreme heat, a more consistent challenge in Texas, remains a less-addressed threat. The upcoming legislative session must prioritize comprehensive climate resilience strategies that go beyond cold weather prep.

“The planners for the Texas grid have important questions to address regarding anticipated weather extremes: Will there be enough energy? Will power be available when and where it is needed? Is the state prepared for extreme weather events? Are regional distribution utilities prepared for extreme weather events? Texas is not alone in facing these challenges as other states have likewise experienced extremely hot and dry summers, wildfires, polar vortexes, and other weather conditions that have tested their regional power systems,” writes Cohn.

Renewable Energy and Transmission

Texas leads the nation in wind and solar capacity (Map: Energy, Environment, and Policy in the US), however the complexity lies in getting that energy from where it’s produced to where it’s needed. Transmission lines are feeling the pressure, and the grid is struggling to keep pace with the rapid expansion of renewables. In 2005, the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) initiative showed that state intervention could significantly accelerate grid expansion. With renewables continuing to grow, the big question now is whether the state will step up again, or risk allowing progress to stall due to the inadequacy of the infrastructure in place. The legislature has a choice to make: take the lead in this energy transition or face the consequences of not keeping up with the pace of change.

Conclusion

The electrical grid continues to face serious challenges, especially as demand is expected to rise. There is hope, however, as regulators are fully aware of the strain. While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

As Cohn puts it, “In the end, successful resolution of the various issues will carry significant benefits for existing Texas industrial, commercial, and residential consumers and have implications for the longer-term economic attractiveness of Texas. Suffice it to say, eyes will be, and should be, on the Texas legislature in the coming session.”

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on September 11, 2024.

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What does the future of global energy hold? A Rice University institute published its research-backed findings on the subject. Photo via Getty Images

Rice University releases data, analysis on future of global energy

eyes on insights

The Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy has released a collection of articles addressing the most pressing policy issues in global energy.

The inaugural Energy Insights was supported by ongoing research at CES, with a goal of better understanding the energy landscape over the next few years.

“While no one can predict exactly what comes next, if we are paying attention, the road we travel provides plenty of signposts that can be used to understand the challenges and opportunities ahead,” wrote CES Senior Director Kenneth Medlock.

The articles, which are available online in a 120-page packet, focus on a wide variety of key issues — Texas electricity policy, energy and geopolitics in Eurasia, how the energy transition will affect the Middle East, the growing necessity of minerals and materials, and more.

All in all, the new Energy Insights will look at the ever-changing energy landscape.

“Industrialization, improved living standards, technological and process innovation, and increased mobility of people and goods, to name a few, are all hallmarks of continual energy transition,” Medlock adds. “The process is not done. The past lives on through long-lived legacy infrastructures, and the future evolves most rapidly when it can leverage that legacy. Exactly how though, remains an elusive topic.”

Contributors to the publication include: Medlock, Julie Cohn, Gabe Collins, Ted Loch-Temzelides, Jim Krane, Osamah Alsayegh, Francisco Monaldi, Tilsa Oré Mónago, Michelle Michot Foss, Steven Miles, Mark Finley, Mahmoud El-Gamal, Chris Bronk, Rachel Meidl and Ed Emmett.

The initiative plans to bring together leading experts and policymakers to study the Argentine energy sector from oil and gas to renewables. Photo via Getty Images

Rice University to target Argentina energy sector with new initiative

headed south

A program at Rice University aiming to target the Argentine energy sector by including reports, workshops and conferences.

The Baker Institute for Public Policy announced a new initiative, the Baker Institute’s Argentina Energy Sector Initiatives, that will launch in September.

The initiative plans to bring together leading experts and policymakers to study the Argentine energy sector like oil and natural gas exploration and production, energy infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, electricity transmission and LNG export terminals), and the mining sector in the renewable energy transition. The initiative will include written reports and hold in-person conferences and workshops in Houston and Buenos Aires. There will also be a monthly online seminar series.

Fellows from the institute’s Center for Energy Studies will collaborate on the initiative with Argentine policymakers and technical experts and policymakers. Argentina contains the world’s second largest unconventional natural gas and fourth largest unconventional petroleum reserves, the Vaca Muerta shale formation.

The institute's Center for Energy Studies, which the Argentina program will take place in, has ranked as the top energy think tank in the world.

September’s formal launch will take place at the Baker Institute in Houston, and will be open to the public and live-streamed. The event will feature the participation of Baker Institute fellows, Argentina Program non-resident fellows, Argentine elected officials and others

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6 major acquisitions that fueled the Houston energy sector in 2025

2025 In Review

Editor's note: As 2025 comes to a close, we're revisiting the biggest headlines and major milestones of the energy transition sector this year. Here are six major acquisitions that fueled the Houston energy industry in 2025:

Houston-based Calpine Corp. to be acquired in clean energy megadeal

Houston's Calpine Corp. will be acquired by Baltimore-based nuclear power company Constellation Energy Corp. Photo via DOE

In January 2025, Baltimore-based nuclear power company Constellation Energy Corp. and Houston-based Calpine Corp. entered into an agreement where Constellation would acquire Calpine in a cash and stock transaction with an overall net purchase price of $26.6 billion. The deal received final regulatory clearance this month.

Investment giant to acquire TXNM Energy for $11.5 billion

Blackstone Infrastructure, an affiliate of Blackstone Inc., will acquire a major Texas electricity provider. Photo via Shutterstock

In May 2025, Blackstone Infrastructure, an investment giant with $600 million in assets under management, agreed to buy publicly traded TXNM Energy in a debt-and-stock deal valued at $11.5 billion. The deal recently cleared a major regulatory hurdle, but still must be approved by the Public Utility Commission of Texas.

Houston's Rhythm Energy expands nationally with clean power acquisition

PJ Popovic, founder and CEO of Houston-based Rhythm Energy, which has acquired Inspire Clean Energy. Photo courtesy of Rhythm

Houston-based Rhythm Energy Inc. acquired Inspire Clean Energy in June 2025 for an undisclosed amount. The deal allowed Rhythm to immediately scale outside of Texas and into the Northeast, Midwest and mid-Atlantic regions.

Houston American Energy closes acquisition of New York low-carbon fuel co.

Houston American Energy Corp. has acquired Abundia Global Impact Group, which converts plastic and certified biomass waste into high-quality renewable fuels. Photo via Getty Images.

Renewable energy company Houston American Energy Corp. (NYSE: HUSA) acquired Abundia Global Impact Group in July 2025. The acquisition created a combined company focused on converting waste plastics into high-value, drop-in, low-carbon fuels and chemical products.

Chevron gets green light on $53 billion Hess acquisition

With the deal, Chevron gets access to one of the biggest oil finds of the decade. Photo via Chevron

In July 2025, Houston-based Chevron scored a critical ruling in Paris that provided the go-ahead for a $53 billion acquisition of Hess and access to one of the biggest oil finds of the decade. Chevron completed its acquisition of Hess shortly after the ruling from the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris.

Investors close partial acquisition of Phillips 66 subsidiary with growing EV network

Two investment firms have scooped up the majority stake in JET, a subsidiary of Phillips 66 with a rapidly growing EV charging network. Photo via Jet.de Facebook.

In December 2025, Energy Equation Partners, a London-based investment firm focused on clean energy companies, and New York-based Stonepeak completed the acquisition of a 65 percent interest in JET Tankstellen Deutschland GmbH, a subsidiary of Houston oil and gas giant Phillips 66.

Houston researchers develop energy-efficient film for AI chips

AI research

A team of researchers at the University of Houston has developed an innovative thin-film material that they believe will make AI devices faster and more energy efficient.

AI data centers consume massive amounts of electricity and use large cooling systems to operate, adding a strain on overall energy consumption.

“AI has made our energy needs explode,” Alamgir Karim, Dow Chair and Welch Foundation Professor at the William A. Brookshire Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at UH, explained in a news release. “Many AI data centers employ vast cooling systems that consume large amounts of electricity to keep the thousands of servers with integrated circuit chips running optimally at low temperatures to maintain high data processing speed, have shorter response time and extend chip lifetime.”

In a report recently published in ACS Nano, Karim and a team of researchers introduced a specialized two-dimensional thin film dielectric, or electric insulator. The film, which does not store electricity, could be used to replace traditional, heat-generating components in integrated circuit chips, which are essential hardware powering AI.

The thinner film material aims to reduce the significant energy cost and heat produced by the high-performance computing necessary for AI.

Karim and his former doctoral student, Maninderjeet Singh, used Nobel prize-winning organic framework materials to develop the film. Singh, now a postdoctoral researcher at Columbia University, developed the materials during his doctoral training at UH, along with Devin Shaffer, a UH professor of civil engineering, and doctoral student Erin Schroeder.

Their study shows that dielectrics with high permittivity (high-k) store more electrical energy and dissipate more energy as heat than those with low-k materials. Karim focused on low-k materials made from light elements, like carbon, that would allow chips to run cooler and faster.

The team then created new materials with carbon and other light elements, forming covalently bonded sheetlike films with highly porous crystalline structures using a process known as synthetic interfacial polymerization. Then they studied their electronic properties and applications in devices.

According to the report, the film was suitable for high-voltage, high-power devices while maintaining thermal stability at elevated operating temperatures.

“These next-generation materials are expected to boost the performance of AI and conventional electronics devices significantly,” Singh added in the release.

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.

Energy expert: What 2025 revealed about the evolution of Texas power

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2025 marked a pivotal year for Texas’ energy ecosystem. Rising demand, accelerating renewable integration, tightening reserve margins and growing industrial load reshaped the way policymakers, utilities and the broader market think about reliability.

This wasn’t just another year of operational challenges; it was a clear signal that the state is entering an era where growth and innovation must move together in unison if Texas is going to keep pace.

What happened in 2025 is already influencing the decisions utilities, regulators and large energy consumers will make in 2026 and beyond. If Texas is going to remain the nation’s proving ground for large-scale energy innovation, this year made one thing clear: we need every tool working together and working smarter.

What changed: Grid, policy & the growth of renewables

This year, ERCOT recorded one of the steepest demand increases in its history. From January through September 2025, electricity consumption reached 372 terawatt-hours (TWh), a 5 percent increase over the previous year and a 23 percent jump since 2021. That growth officially positions ERCOT as the fastest-expanding large grid in the country.

To meet this rising load, Texas leaned heavily on clean energy. Solar, wind and battery storage served approximately 36 percent of ERCOT’s electricity needs over the first nine months of the year, a milestone that showcased how quickly Texas has diversified its generation mix. Utility-scale solar surged to 45 TWh, up 50 percent year-over-year, while wind generation reached 87 TWh, a 36 percent increase since 2021.

Battery storage also proved its value. What was once niche is now essential: storage helped shift mid-day excess solar to evening peaks, especially during a historic week in early spring when Texas hit new highs for simultaneous wind, solar and battery output.

Still, natural gas remained the backbone of reliability. Dispatchable thermal resources supplied more than 50 percent of ERCOT’s power 92 percent of the time in Q3 2025. That dual structure of fast-growing renewables backed by firm gas generation is now the defining characteristic of Texas’s energy identity.

But growth cuts both ways. Intermittent generation is up, yet demand is rising faster. Storage is scaling, but not quite at the rate required to fill the evening reliability gap. And while new clean-energy projects are coming online rapidly, the reality of rising population, data center growth, electrification and heavy industrial expansion continues to outpace the additions.

A recent forecast from the Texas Legislative Study Group projects demand could climb another 14 percent by mid-2026, tightening reserve margins unless meaningful additions in capacity, or smarter systemwide usage, arrive soon.

What 2025 meant for the energy ecosystem

The challenges of 2025 pushed Texas to rethink reliability as a shared responsibility between grid operators, generation companies, large load customers, policymakers and consumers. The year underscored several realities:

1. The grid is becoming increasingly weather-dependent. Solar thrives in summer; wind dominates in spring and winter. But extreme heat waves and cold snaps also push demand to unprecedented levels. Reliability now hinges on planning for volatility, not just averages.

2. Infrastructure is straining under rapid load growth. The grid handled multiple stress events in 2025, but it required decisive coordination and emerging technologies, such as storage methods, to do so.

3. Innovation is no longer optional. Advanced forecasting, grid-scale batteries, demand flexibility tools, and hybrid renewable-gas portfolios are now essential components of grid stability.

4. Data centers and industrial electrification are changing the game. Large flexible loads present both a challenge and an opportunity. With proper coordination, they can help stabilize the grid. Without it, they can exacerbate conditions of scarcity.

Texas can meet these challenges, but only with intentional leadership and strong public-private collaboration.

The system-level wins of 2025

Despite volatility, 2025 showcased meaningful progress:

Renewables proved their reliability role. Hitting 36 percent of ERCOT’s generation mix for three consecutive quarters demonstrates that wind, solar and batteries are no longer supplemental — they’re foundational.

Storage emerged as a real asset for reliability. Battery deployments doubled their discharge records in early 2025, showing the potential of short-duration storage during peak periods.

The dual model works when balanced wisely. Natural gas continues to provide firm reliability during low-renewable hours. When paired with renewable growth, Texas gains resilience without sacrificing affordability.

Energy literacy increased across the ecosystem. Communities, utilities and even industrial facilities are paying closer attention to how loads, pricing signals, weather and grid conditions interact—a necessary cultural shift in a fast-changing market.

Where Texas goes in 2026

Texas heads into 2026 with several unmistakable trends shaping the road ahead. Rate adjustments will continue as utilities like CenterPoint request cost recovery to strengthen infrastructure, modernize outdated equipment and add the capacity needed to handle record-breaking growth in load.

At the same time, weather-driven demand is expected to stay unpredictable. While summer peaks will almost certainly set new records, winter is quickly becoming the bigger wild card, especially as natural gas prices and heating demand increasingly drive both reliability planning and consumer stress.

Alongside these pressures, distributed energy is set for real expansion. Rooftop solar, community battery systems and hybrid generation-storage setups are no longer niche upgrades; they’re quickly becoming meaningful grid assets that help support reliability at scale.

And underlying all of this is a cultural shift toward energy literacy. The utilities, regulators, businesses, and institutions that understand load flexibility, pricing signals and efficiency strategies will be the ones best positioned to manage costs and strengthen the grid. In a market that’s evolving this fast, knowing how we use energy matters just as much as knowing how much.

The big picture: 2025 as a blueprint for a resilient future

If 2025 showed us anything, it’s that Texas can scale innovation at a pace few states can match. We saw record renewable output, historic storage milestones and strong thermal performance during strain events. The Texas grid endured significant stress but maintained operational integrity.

But it also showed that reliability isn’t a static achievement; it’s a moving target. As population growth, AI and industrial electrification and weather extremes intensify, Texas must evolve from a reactive posture to a proactive one.

The encouraging part is that Texas has the tools, the talent and the market structure to build one of the most resilient and future-ready power ecosystems in the world. The test ahead isn’t whether we can generate enough power; it’s whether we can coordinate systems, technologies and market behavior fast enough to meet the moment.

And in 2026, that coordination is precisely where the opportunity lies.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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