Reshaping the Texas grid: The impact of EVs, AI, renewables, and extreme weather

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While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

Did you catch those images of idle generators that CenterPoint had on standby during Hurricane Beryl? With over 2 million people in the Houston area left in the dark, many were wondering, "if the generators are ready, why didn’t they get used?" It seems like power outages are becoming just as common as the severe storms themselves.

But as Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES) explains, it's not a simple fix. The outages during Hurricane Beryl were different from what we saw during Winter Storm Uri. This time, with so many poles and wires down, those generators couldn’t be put to use. It’s a reminder that each storm brings its own set of challenges, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution when it comes to keeping the lights on. While extreme weather is one of the leading threats to our electric grid, it's certainly not the only one adding strain on our power infrastructure.

The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicles (EVs) is transforming the way we live, work, and move. Beneath the surface of these technological marvels lies a challenge that could define the future of our energy infrastructure: they all depend on our electrical grid. As AI-powered data centers and a growing fleet of EVs demand more power than ever before, our grid—already under pressure from extreme weather events and an increasing reliance on renewable energy—faces a critical test. The question goes beyond whether our grid can keep up, but rather focuses on how we can ensure it evolves to support the innovations of tomorrow without compromising reliability today. The intersection of these emerging technologies with our aging energy infrastructure poses a dilemma that policymakers, industry leaders, and consumers must address.

Julie Cohn, Nonresident Fellow at the Center for Energy Studies at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, presents several key findings and recommendations to address concerns about the reliability of the Texas energy grid in her Energy Insight. She suggests there’s at least six developments unfolding that will affect the reliability of the Texas Interconnected System, operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the regional distribution networks operated by regulated utilities.

Let’s dig deeper into some of these issues:

AI

AI requires substantial computational power, particularly in data centers that house servers processing vast amounts of data. These data centers consume large amounts of electricity, putting additional strain on the grid.

According to McKinsey & Company, a single hyperscale data center can consume as much electricity as 80,000 homes combined. In 2022, data centers consumed about 200 terawatt-hours (TWh), close to 4 percent, of the total electricity used in the United States and approximately 460 TWh globally. That’s nearly the consumption of the entire State of Texas, which consumed approximately 475.4 TWh of electricity in the same year. However, this percentage is expected to increase significantly as demand for data processing and storage continues to grow. In 2026, data centers are expected to account for 6 percent, almost 260 TWh, of total electricity demand in the U.S.

EVs

According to the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, approximately 170,000 EVs have been registered across the state of Texas as of 2023, with Texas receiving $408 million in funding to expand its EV charging network. As Cohn suggests, a central question remains: Where will these emerging economic drivers for Texas, such as EVs and AI, obtain their electric power?

EVs draw power from the grid every time they’re plugged in to charge. This may come as a shock to some, but “the thing that’s recharging EV batteries in ERCOT right now, is natural gas,” says Medlock. And as McKinsey & Company explains, the impact of switching to EVs on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will largely depend on how much GHG is produced by the electricity used to charge them. This adds a layer of complexity as regulators look to decarbonize the power sector.

Depending on the charger, a single EV fast charger can pull anywhere from 50 kW to 350 kW of electricity per hour. Now, factor in the constant energy drain from data centers, our growing population using power for homes and businesses, and then account for the sudden impact of severe environmental events—which have increased in frequency and intensity—and it’s clear: Houston… we have a problem.

The Weather Wildcard

Texas is gearing up for its 2025 legislative session on January 14. The state's electricity grid once again stands at the forefront of political discussions. The question is not just whether our power will stay on during the next winter storm or scorching summer heatwave, but whether our approach to grid management is sustainable in the face of mounting challenges. The events of recent years, from Winter Storm Uri to unprecedented heatwaves, have exposed significant vulnerabilities in the Texas electricity grid, and while legislative measures have been taken, they have been largely patchwork solutions.

Winter Storm Uri in 2021 was a wake-up call, but it wasn’t the first or last extreme weather event to test the Texas grid. With deep freezes, scorching summers, and unpredictable storms becoming the norm rather than the exception, it is clear that the grid’s current state is not capable of withstanding these extremes. The measures passed in 2021 and 2023 were steps in the right direction, but they were reactive, not proactive. They focused on strengthening the grid against cold weather, yet extreme heat, a more consistent challenge in Texas, remains a less-addressed threat. The upcoming legislative session must prioritize comprehensive climate resilience strategies that go beyond cold weather prep.

“The planners for the Texas grid have important questions to address regarding anticipated weather extremes: Will there be enough energy? Will power be available when and where it is needed? Is the state prepared for extreme weather events? Are regional distribution utilities prepared for extreme weather events? Texas is not alone in facing these challenges as other states have likewise experienced extremely hot and dry summers, wildfires, polar vortexes, and other weather conditions that have tested their regional power systems,” writes Cohn.

Renewable Energy and Transmission

Texas leads the nation in wind and solar capacity (Map: Energy, Environment, and Policy in the US), however the complexity lies in getting that energy from where it’s produced to where it’s needed. Transmission lines are feeling the pressure, and the grid is struggling to keep pace with the rapid expansion of renewables. In 2005, the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) initiative showed that state intervention could significantly accelerate grid expansion. With renewables continuing to grow, the big question now is whether the state will step up again, or risk allowing progress to stall due to the inadequacy of the infrastructure in place. The legislature has a choice to make: take the lead in this energy transition or face the consequences of not keeping up with the pace of change.

Conclusion

The electrical grid continues to face serious challenges, especially as demand is expected to rise. There is hope, however, as regulators are fully aware of the strain. While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

As Cohn puts it, “In the end, successful resolution of the various issues will carry significant benefits for existing Texas industrial, commercial, and residential consumers and have implications for the longer-term economic attractiveness of Texas. Suffice it to say, eyes will be, and should be, on the Texas legislature in the coming session.”

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on September 11, 2024.

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What does the future of global energy hold? A Rice University institute published its research-backed findings on the subject. Photo via Getty Images

Rice University releases data, analysis on future of global energy

eyes on insights

The Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy has released a collection of articles addressing the most pressing policy issues in global energy.

The inaugural Energy Insights was supported by ongoing research at CES, with a goal of better understanding the energy landscape over the next few years.

“While no one can predict exactly what comes next, if we are paying attention, the road we travel provides plenty of signposts that can be used to understand the challenges and opportunities ahead,” wrote CES Senior Director Kenneth Medlock.

The articles, which are available online in a 120-page packet, focus on a wide variety of key issues — Texas electricity policy, energy and geopolitics in Eurasia, how the energy transition will affect the Middle East, the growing necessity of minerals and materials, and more.

All in all, the new Energy Insights will look at the ever-changing energy landscape.

“Industrialization, improved living standards, technological and process innovation, and increased mobility of people and goods, to name a few, are all hallmarks of continual energy transition,” Medlock adds. “The process is not done. The past lives on through long-lived legacy infrastructures, and the future evolves most rapidly when it can leverage that legacy. Exactly how though, remains an elusive topic.”

Contributors to the publication include: Medlock, Julie Cohn, Gabe Collins, Ted Loch-Temzelides, Jim Krane, Osamah Alsayegh, Francisco Monaldi, Tilsa Oré Mónago, Michelle Michot Foss, Steven Miles, Mark Finley, Mahmoud El-Gamal, Chris Bronk, Rachel Meidl and Ed Emmett.

The initiative plans to bring together leading experts and policymakers to study the Argentine energy sector from oil and gas to renewables. Photo via Getty Images

Rice University to target Argentina energy sector with new initiative

headed south

A program at Rice University aiming to target the Argentine energy sector by including reports, workshops and conferences.

The Baker Institute for Public Policy announced a new initiative, the Baker Institute’s Argentina Energy Sector Initiatives, that will launch in September.

The initiative plans to bring together leading experts and policymakers to study the Argentine energy sector like oil and natural gas exploration and production, energy infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, electricity transmission and LNG export terminals), and the mining sector in the renewable energy transition. The initiative will include written reports and hold in-person conferences and workshops in Houston and Buenos Aires. There will also be a monthly online seminar series.

Fellows from the institute’s Center for Energy Studies will collaborate on the initiative with Argentine policymakers and technical experts and policymakers. Argentina contains the world’s second largest unconventional natural gas and fourth largest unconventional petroleum reserves, the Vaca Muerta shale formation.

The institute's Center for Energy Studies, which the Argentina program will take place in, has ranked as the top energy think tank in the world.

September’s formal launch will take place at the Baker Institute in Houston, and will be open to the public and live-streamed. The event will feature the participation of Baker Institute fellows, Argentina Program non-resident fellows, Argentine elected officials and others

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Houston clean energy pioneer earns prestigious Welch Foundation award

Awards Season

A Rice University professor has earned a prestigious award from the Houston-based Welch Foundation, which supports chemistry research.

The foundation gave its 2025 Norman Hackerman Award in Chemical Research to Haotian Wang for his “exceptionally creative” research involving carbon dioxide electrochemistry. His research enables CO2 to be converted into valuable chemicals and fuels.

The award included $100,000 and a bronze sculpture.

“Dr. Wang’s extensive body of work and rigorous pursuit of efficient electrochemical solutions to practical problems set him apart as a top innovator among early-career researchers,” Catherine Murphy, chairwoman of the foundation’s Scientific Advisory Board, said in a news release.

Wang is an associate professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Rice. The department’s Wang Group develops nanomaterials and electrolyzers for energy and environmental uses, such as energy storage, chemical and fuel generation, green synthesis and water treatment.

Wang also is co-founder of Solidec, a Houston startup that aims to turn his innovations into low-carbon fuels, carbon-negative hydrogen and carbon-neutral peroxide. The startup extracts molecules from water and air, then transforms them into pure chemicals and fuels that are free of carbon emissions.

Solidec has been selected for Chevron Technology Ventures’ catalyst program, a Rice One Small Step grant, a U.S. Department of Energy grant, and the first cohort of the Activate Houston program.

“Dr. Wang’s use of electrochemistry to close the carbon cycle and develop renewable sources of industrial chemicals directly intersects with the Welch Foundation mission of advancing chemistry while improving life,” Fred Brazelton, chairman and director of the Welch Foundation, said in the release.

Ramamoorthy Ramesh, executive vice president for research at Rice University, added: “We are proud to (Dr. Wang) at Rice. He’s using chemical engineering to solve a big problem for humanity, everything that the Welch Foundation stands for.”

Last year, the Hackerman Award went to Baylor College of Medicine's Livia Schiavinato Eberlin, who's known for her groundbreaking work in the application of mass spectrometry technologies, which are changing how physicians treat cancer and analyze tissues. Read more here.

Houston venture firm invests in Virginia fusion power plant company in collaboration with TAMU

fusion funding

Houston-based climate tech venture firm Ecosphere Ventures has partnered with Virginia Venture Partners and Virginia Innovation Partnership Corporation’s venture capital program to invest in Virginia-based NearStar Fusion Inc., which develops fusion energy power plants.

NearStar aims to use its proprietary plasma railgun technology to safely and affordably power baseload electricity on and off the power grid through a Magnetized Target Impact Fusion (MTIF) approach, according to a news release from the company.

NearStar’s power plants are designed to retrofit traditional fossil fuel power plants and are expected to serve heavy industry, data centers and military installations.

“Our design is well-suited to retrofit coal-burning power plants and reuse existing infrastructure such as balance of plant and grid connectivity, but I’m also excited about leveraging the existing workforce because you won’t need PhDs in plasma physics to work in our power plant,” Amit Singh, CEO of NearStar Fusion, said in a news release.

NearStar will also conduct experiments at the Texas A&M Hypervelocity Impact Laboratory (HVIL) in Bryan, Texas, on prototype fuel targets and evolving fuel capsule design. The company plans to publish the results of the experiments along with a concept paper this year. NearStar will work with The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) to develop computer performance models for target implosions.

NearStar’s MTIF approach will utilize deuterium, which is a common isotope of hydrogen found in water. The process does not use tritium, which NearStar believes will save customers money.

“While avoiding tritium in our power plant design reduces scientific gain of the fusion process, we believe the vastly reduced system complexity and cost savings of eliminating complicated supply chains, regulatory oversight, and breeding of tritium allows NearStar to operate power plants more profitably and serve more customers worldwide, ”Douglas Witherspoon, NearStar founder and chief scientist, said in a news release.

Houston’s Ecosphere Ventures invests in climate tech and sustainability innovations from pre-seed to late-seed stages in the U.S. Ecosphere also supports first-time entrepreneurs and technical founders.

Solar farms are booming and putting thousands of hungry sheep to work

Solar Power

On rural Texas farmland, beneath hundreds of rows of solar panels, a troop of stocky sheep rummage through pasture, casually bumping into one another as they remain committed to a single task: chewing grass.

The booming solar industry has found an unlikely mascot in sheep as large-scale solar farms crop up across the U.S. and in the plain fields of Texas. In Milam County, outside Austin, SB Energy operates the fifth-largest solar project in the country, capable of generating 900 megawatts of power across 4,000 acres.

How do they manage all that grass? With the help of about 3,000 sheep, which are better suited than lawnmowers to fit between small crevices and chew away rain or shine.

The proliferation of sheep on solar farms is part of a broader trend — solar grazing — that has exploded alongside the solar industry.

Agrivoltaics, a method using land for both solar energy production and agriculture, is on the rise with more than 60 solar grazing projects in the U.S., according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The American Solar Grazing Association says 27 states engage in the practice.

"The industry tends to rely on gas-powered mowers, which kind of contradicts the purpose of renewables," SB Energy asset manager James Hawkins said.

A sunny opportunity
Putting the animals to work on solar fields also provides some help to the sheep and wool market, which has struggled in recent years. The inventory of sheep and lamb in Texas fell to 655,000 in January 2024, a 4% drop from the previous year, according to the most recent figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Because solar fields use sunny, flat land that is often ideal for livestock grazing, the power plants have been used in coordination with farmers rather than against them.

Sheepherder JR Howard accidentally found himself in the middle of Texas' burgeoning clean energy transition. In 2021, he and his family began contracting with solar farms — sites with hundreds of thousands of solar modules — to use his sheep to eat the grass.

What was once a small business has turned into a full-scale operation with more than 8,000 sheep and 26 employees.

"Just the growth has been kind of crazy for us," said Howard, who named his company Texas Solar Sheep. "It's been great for me and my family."

Following the herd
Some agriculture experts say Howard's success reflects how solar farms have become a boon for some ranchers.

Reid Redden, a sheep farmer and solar vegetation manager in San Angelo, Texas, said a successful sheep business requires agricultural land that has become increasingly scarce.

"Solar grazing is probably the biggest opportunity that the sheep industry had in the United States in several generations," Redden said.

The response to solar grazing has been overwhelmingly positive in rural communities near South Texas solar farms where Redden raises sheep for sites to use, he said.

"I think it softens the blow of the big shock and awe of a big solar farm coming in," Redden said.

Fielding more research
Agrivoltaics itself isn't new. Solar farms are land-intensive and require a lot of space that could be used for food production. Agrivoltaics compensates by allowing the two to coexist, whether growing food or caring for livestock.

There is a lot still unknown about the full effects of solar grazing, said Nuria Gomez-Casanovas, an assistant professor in regenerative system ecology at Texas A&M University.

Not enough studies have been done to know the long-term environmental impacts, such as how viable the soil will be for future agriculture, although Gomez-Casanovas suspects solar grazing may improve sheep productivity because the panels provide shade and can be more cost-efficient than mowing.

"We really have more questions than answers," Gomez-Casanovas said. "There are studies that show that the land productivity is not higher versus solar alone or agriculture alone, so it's context-dependent."

As one of Texas' largest solar sheep operators, Howard has more clients than he can handle. He expects to add about 20 more employees by the end of this year, which would nearly double his current workforce. As for the sheep, he has enough already.

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