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Reshaping the Texas grid: The impact of EVs, AI, renewables, and extreme weather

guest column

While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

Did you catch those images of idle generators that CenterPoint had on standby during Hurricane Beryl? With over 2 million people in the Houston area left in the dark, many were wondering, "if the generators are ready, why didn’t they get used?" It seems like power outages are becoming just as common as the severe storms themselves.

But as Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES) explains, it's not a simple fix. The outages during Hurricane Beryl were different from what we saw during Winter Storm Uri. This time, with so many poles and wires down, those generators couldn’t be put to use. It’s a reminder that each storm brings its own set of challenges, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution when it comes to keeping the lights on. While extreme weather is one of the leading threats to our electric grid, it's certainly not the only one adding strain on our power infrastructure.

The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicles (EVs) is transforming the way we live, work, and move. Beneath the surface of these technological marvels lies a challenge that could define the future of our energy infrastructure: they all depend on our electrical grid. As AI-powered data centers and a growing fleet of EVs demand more power than ever before, our grid—already under pressure from extreme weather events and an increasing reliance on renewable energy—faces a critical test. The question goes beyond whether our grid can keep up, but rather focuses on how we can ensure it evolves to support the innovations of tomorrow without compromising reliability today. The intersection of these emerging technologies with our aging energy infrastructure poses a dilemma that policymakers, industry leaders, and consumers must address.

Julie Cohn, Nonresident Fellow at the Center for Energy Studies at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, presents several key findings and recommendations to address concerns about the reliability of the Texas energy grid in her Energy Insight. She suggests there’s at least six developments unfolding that will affect the reliability of the Texas Interconnected System, operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the regional distribution networks operated by regulated utilities.

Let’s dig deeper into some of these issues:

AI

AI requires substantial computational power, particularly in data centers that house servers processing vast amounts of data. These data centers consume large amounts of electricity, putting additional strain on the grid.

According to McKinsey & Company, a single hyperscale data center can consume as much electricity as 80,000 homes combined. In 2022, data centers consumed about 200 terawatt-hours (TWh), close to 4 percent, of the total electricity used in the United States and approximately 460 TWh globally. That’s nearly the consumption of the entire State of Texas, which consumed approximately 475.4 TWh of electricity in the same year. However, this percentage is expected to increase significantly as demand for data processing and storage continues to grow. In 2026, data centers are expected to account for 6 percent, almost 260 TWh, of total electricity demand in the U.S.

EVs

According to the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, approximately 170,000 EVs have been registered across the state of Texas as of 2023, with Texas receiving $408 million in funding to expand its EV charging network. As Cohn suggests, a central question remains: Where will these emerging economic drivers for Texas, such as EVs and AI, obtain their electric power?

EVs draw power from the grid every time they’re plugged in to charge. This may come as a shock to some, but “the thing that’s recharging EV batteries in ERCOT right now, is natural gas,” says Medlock. And as McKinsey & Company explains, the impact of switching to EVs on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will largely depend on how much GHG is produced by the electricity used to charge them. This adds a layer of complexity as regulators look to decarbonize the power sector.

Depending on the charger, a single EV fast charger can pull anywhere from 50 kW to 350 kW of electricity per hour. Now, factor in the constant energy drain from data centers, our growing population using power for homes and businesses, and then account for the sudden impact of severe environmental events—which have increased in frequency and intensity—and it’s clear: Houston… we have a problem.

The Weather Wildcard

Texas is gearing up for its 2025 legislative session on January 14. The state's electricity grid once again stands at the forefront of political discussions. The question is not just whether our power will stay on during the next winter storm or scorching summer heatwave, but whether our approach to grid management is sustainable in the face of mounting challenges. The events of recent years, from Winter Storm Uri to unprecedented heatwaves, have exposed significant vulnerabilities in the Texas electricity grid, and while legislative measures have been taken, they have been largely patchwork solutions.

Winter Storm Uri in 2021 was a wake-up call, but it wasn’t the first or last extreme weather event to test the Texas grid. With deep freezes, scorching summers, and unpredictable storms becoming the norm rather than the exception, it is clear that the grid’s current state is not capable of withstanding these extremes. The measures passed in 2021 and 2023 were steps in the right direction, but they were reactive, not proactive. They focused on strengthening the grid against cold weather, yet extreme heat, a more consistent challenge in Texas, remains a less-addressed threat. The upcoming legislative session must prioritize comprehensive climate resilience strategies that go beyond cold weather prep.

“The planners for the Texas grid have important questions to address regarding anticipated weather extremes: Will there be enough energy? Will power be available when and where it is needed? Is the state prepared for extreme weather events? Are regional distribution utilities prepared for extreme weather events? Texas is not alone in facing these challenges as other states have likewise experienced extremely hot and dry summers, wildfires, polar vortexes, and other weather conditions that have tested their regional power systems,” writes Cohn.

Renewable Energy and Transmission

Texas leads the nation in wind and solar capacity (Map: Energy, Environment, and Policy in the US), however the complexity lies in getting that energy from where it’s produced to where it’s needed. Transmission lines are feeling the pressure, and the grid is struggling to keep pace with the rapid expansion of renewables. In 2005, the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) initiative showed that state intervention could significantly accelerate grid expansion. With renewables continuing to grow, the big question now is whether the state will step up again, or risk allowing progress to stall due to the inadequacy of the infrastructure in place. The legislature has a choice to make: take the lead in this energy transition or face the consequences of not keeping up with the pace of change.

Conclusion

The electrical grid continues to face serious challenges, especially as demand is expected to rise. There is hope, however, as regulators are fully aware of the strain. While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

As Cohn puts it, “In the end, successful resolution of the various issues will carry significant benefits for existing Texas industrial, commercial, and residential consumers and have implications for the longer-term economic attractiveness of Texas. Suffice it to say, eyes will be, and should be, on the Texas legislature in the coming session.”

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on September 11, 2024.

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What does the future of global energy hold? A Rice University institute published its research-backed findings on the subject. Photo via Getty Images

Rice University releases data, analysis on future of global energy

eyes on insights

The Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy has released a collection of articles addressing the most pressing policy issues in global energy.

The inaugural Energy Insights was supported by ongoing research at CES, with a goal of better understanding the energy landscape over the next few years.

“While no one can predict exactly what comes next, if we are paying attention, the road we travel provides plenty of signposts that can be used to understand the challenges and opportunities ahead,” wrote CES Senior Director Kenneth Medlock.

The articles, which are available online in a 120-page packet, focus on a wide variety of key issues — Texas electricity policy, energy and geopolitics in Eurasia, how the energy transition will affect the Middle East, the growing necessity of minerals and materials, and more.

All in all, the new Energy Insights will look at the ever-changing energy landscape.

“Industrialization, improved living standards, technological and process innovation, and increased mobility of people and goods, to name a few, are all hallmarks of continual energy transition,” Medlock adds. “The process is not done. The past lives on through long-lived legacy infrastructures, and the future evolves most rapidly when it can leverage that legacy. Exactly how though, remains an elusive topic.”

Contributors to the publication include: Medlock, Julie Cohn, Gabe Collins, Ted Loch-Temzelides, Jim Krane, Osamah Alsayegh, Francisco Monaldi, Tilsa Oré Mónago, Michelle Michot Foss, Steven Miles, Mark Finley, Mahmoud El-Gamal, Chris Bronk, Rachel Meidl and Ed Emmett.

The initiative plans to bring together leading experts and policymakers to study the Argentine energy sector from oil and gas to renewables. Photo via Getty Images

Rice University to target Argentina energy sector with new initiative

headed south

A program at Rice University aiming to target the Argentine energy sector by including reports, workshops and conferences.

The Baker Institute for Public Policy announced a new initiative, the Baker Institute’s Argentina Energy Sector Initiatives, that will launch in September.

The initiative plans to bring together leading experts and policymakers to study the Argentine energy sector like oil and natural gas exploration and production, energy infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, electricity transmission and LNG export terminals), and the mining sector in the renewable energy transition. The initiative will include written reports and hold in-person conferences and workshops in Houston and Buenos Aires. There will also be a monthly online seminar series.

Fellows from the institute’s Center for Energy Studies will collaborate on the initiative with Argentine policymakers and technical experts and policymakers. Argentina contains the world’s second largest unconventional natural gas and fourth largest unconventional petroleum reserves, the Vaca Muerta shale formation.

The institute's Center for Energy Studies, which the Argentina program will take place in, has ranked as the top energy think tank in the world.

September’s formal launch will take place at the Baker Institute in Houston, and will be open to the public and live-streamed. The event will feature the participation of Baker Institute fellows, Argentina Program non-resident fellows, Argentine elected officials and others

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ExxonMobil expands Gulf Coast CCS business with Louisiana deal

carbon contract

Spring-based energy powerhouse ExxonMobil has picked up another project in the carbon capture and storage (CCS) market.

Natural gas pipeline operator Williams Cos. has tapped ExxonMobil to transport and store up to one metric ton per year of CO2 from Williams’ natural gas collection and processing plant in southwest Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale.

Williams will transport natural gas via its Louisiana Energy Gateway pipeline, then process the natural gas and deliver it to the Gulf Coast for export as liquefied natural gas (LNG). The LNG will be used in power generation, residential and commercial heating, and industrial processes.

Williams recently agreed to acquire Momentum Midstream for up to $5.5 billion to expand Williams’ LNG presence in the Haynesville Shale. Haynesville is the country’s third-largest producer of natural gas.

Once the deal closes, Williams will own a $1.5 billion project in southwest Louisiana that will expand capacity of the Transco natural gas distribution system. The system serves power and LNG-export customers. Williams will also gain over 4,000 miles of pipeline and more than one million acres.

While Williams is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, it has a significant presence in Houston. Last month, Green Street’s Real Estate Alert reported Williams bought the 64-story, 1.4 million-square-foot Williams Tower south of The Galleria from Invesco Real Estate for more than $300 million. The company will occupy about 360,000 square feet in the skyscraper for its Houston hub.

Williams employs about 800 people in Bayou City, including roughly 700 who work at Williams Tower, and plans to hire another 100 by the end of this year.

The Williams deal is ExxonMobil’s seventh CCS contract. ExxonMobil’s CCS portfolio supports LNG, lower-carbon-intensity steel, ammonia, natural gas processing, industrial gases and methanol.

ExxonMobil has established a “carbon superhighway” along the Gulf Coast to fuel its CCS business. The company owns and operates a more than 1,300-mile CO2 pipeline system, the largest in the U.S.

“Carbon capture is becoming an increasingly important part of industrial operations, but capture alone doesn’t solve the problem of high emissions,” says ExxonMobil. “What matters next is how CO2 is transported, used, and stored.”

ExxonMobil’s CCS initiatives are aimed at capturing a chunk of the rapidly growing CCS market in the U.S. Straits Research forecasts the market will grow from $5.66 billion this year to $13.56 billion by 2034.

“It’s not every day you get to witness the birth of a new American industry, but that’s exactly what’s happening right now at the U.S. Gulf Coast,” Dominic Genetti, senior vice president of CCS at ExxonMobil, wrote in an article published last year on the company’s website.

Fervo Energy, Mercury Fund leaders named first experts in residence for TEX-E

energy mentors

Two leading companies in Houston's clean energy scene have been named the Texas Exchange for Energy & Climate Entrepreneurship's first experts in residence.

TEX-E announced this month that Houston-based geothermal unicorn Fervo Energy and venture capital firm Mercury Fund have joined the nonprofit's new Expert-in-Residence partnership. The program aims to connect TEX-E Fellows with "the people and organizations shaping the future of energy and entrepreneurship."

The 2026 TEX-E Fellows were named in June and include 67 students from six Texas universities and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Nineteen are from Houston universities. See the full list here.

Through the Expert-in-Residence program, fellows will be able to network and work with:

"More than anything, students need the determination and creativity to step outside of their comfort zones and tackle problems that lack clear answers. At Fervo, we've consistently bet on young people who lack traditional 'hard skills' but are willing to embrace uncertainty and learn on the job. That open-mindedness will take students far," Jewett said in a prepared statement. Fervo named Jewett as COO in June.

TEX-E was founded in 2022 through partnerships with MIT Martin Trust Center for Entrepreneurship and Greentown Labs. It works with university students from six schools: Rice University, University of Houston, Prairie View A&M University, The University of Texas at Austin, Texas A&M University and MIT.

The organization named Houston venture capital and innovation leader Sandy Guitar as its new executive director last year. Guitar previously served as general partner and managing director at Houston-based VC firm HX Venture Fund and is co-founder of Weathergage Capital.

TEX-E is known for its student track within the Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition at CERAWeek. It awarded $50,000 to student teams from the University of Texas and Rice University. Read more here.

BP to sell Houston’s Archaea Energy after $4.1 billion bet on biogas

RNG exit

Oil and gas conglomerate BP is unloading its Houston-based U.S. renewable natural gas business just four years after buying it.

The British company announced the planned sale of Archaea during its most recent earnings call but offered few details.

On the call, BP’s new CEO, Meg O’Neill, said her company had put Archaea on the market and already had attracted interest from potential buyers. BP acquired Houston-based Archaea Energy, the country’s largest producer of renewable natural gas (RNG), in 2022 for about $4.1 billion.

BP, whose North American headquarters is in Houston, is streamlining its portfolio. As such, O’Neill said Archaea represents a “capital intense” approach to biogas instead of the “capital light” approach BP now favors.

“If there’s somebody who sees an opportunity to create additional value, who will invest in that business, who will build on the foundation, because our team has made really good progress in improving the profitability of that business, then that will be a good outcome,” O’Neill told Wall Street analysts.

The proposed sale of Archaea is part of BP’s effort to sell about $20 billion in assets by the end of next year.

Archaea captures biogas, a natural byproduct of waste decomposition at landfills and dairy farms, and converts it into electricity or RNG. This process leads to cleaner air, less odor, and more sustainable energy than traditional fossil fuels.

Archaea was slated to be a cornerstone of BP’s plan to boost its biogas supply by roughly 600 percent to the equivalent of about 70,000 barrels of oil per day.

Bioenergy had been identified as one of bp’s five pillars of its multibillion-dollar energy transition initiative.

Another pillar: EV charging. Last month, BP agreed to sell its EV charging business in Austria to Switzerland’s Volenergy, along with 250 BP-branded stores and a fleet of business vehicles.

“By concentrating our capital on the assets and markets where BP can be most competitive and best serve customers, we are strengthening our balance sheet and creating a stronger downstream portfolio,” Richard Harding, interim executive vice president of downstream at BP, said of the Volenergy deal.

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