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Expert shares 5 key factors for evolving the energy transition in Texas

This expert acknowledges the energy transition is not happening overnight — but it's never too early for Texans looking to get in on the ground floor. Photo via Shutterstock

Humanity faces an inflection point in the coming decade. In order for the world’s population to survive and, ultimately, prosper, especially the population of developing countries such as India, China, and Brazil, significant investment in all forms of energy will be needed. Texas-based energy companies will play a crucial role in developing, advancing and supplying environmentally sensitive forms of energy to meet the world’s insatiable demand.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global energy consumption is expected to increase by a staggering 50 percent in the next 25 years. Fueled by rapid economic and population growth, this spike in demand is particularly focused within developing Asian countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Taking steps toward energy evolution today is crucial not only for economic progress but also to address the long-term impact of climate change. Research compiled by JLL highlights five key factors to consider.

1. Embracing a gradual evolution

Historically, energy transitions require significant time to be fully realized, often spanning over 50 years. Coal took more than 60 years to grow from a mere 5 percent to a dominant 50 percent share of the world's primary energy supply. Similarly, natural gas took nearly 70 years to increase its market share from 1 percent to 20 percent in the United States. Widespread commercialization of nuclear energy spans as much as 80 years, from the point of initial discovery and application. Major pendulum swings do not occur overnight; the next energy evolution will require adaptability and resilience.

2. Increase in global energy consumption

As non-OECD countries experience periods of economic growth, particularly driven by a growth of the manufacturing sector, these countries’ energy consumption naturally follows suit. Approximately 2.5 billion people live in these regions, which today heavily rely on non-renewable sources to meet basic energy needs.

As OECD countries continue to introduce sustainable technologies like battery power and other alternatives at scale, a transfer of more efficient and eco-friendly sources and technologies to developing communities must occur to reduce the world’s overall carbon footprint.

3. Surging investment in global energy transition

Investments in the global energy transition surpassed $1 trillion in 2022 – a stunning year-over-year increase of 31 percent. These investments are propelling innovative, sustainable solutions and driving the research and development necessary for a more environmentally conscious energy landscape.

4. Diversification and revised renewables forecast

Countries are actively diversifying their energy generation away from natural gas, specifically as a response to the energy crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This push towards sustainable alternatives has received further validation with the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently revising its five-year renewables forecast, emphasizing a significant 28.4 percent increase. This revision serves as a testament to the increasing significance of sustainable energy sources in ensuring a resilient energy future.

5. United States energy production

Even with the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), the United States will maintain its production and export of oil, natural gas, and derivatives. While recognizing the continued role of these traditional energy sources in meeting global energy demands, the United States also acknowledges the imperative of transitioning towards sustainable energy sources. Encouraging companies to embrace alternative energy solutions in line with this transition is now big business, as significant incentives are being provided at federal and state levels.

And what about here in Texas?

In this critical era of global energy evolution, Texas has the opportunity to take center stage, holding the keys not only to its own future but also to those far beyond the state’s borders. With abundant wind power production, vast solar energy potential, a favorable regulatory environment, and attractive tax incentives, Texas is well positioned to be a leader in innovation, research, and production of alternative energy sources. Combined with the presence of many of the country’s leading energy companies, Texas must be a powerhouse for driving a sustainable energy transition on a large scale.

Transforming the global energy landscape will not be accomplished overnight. It requires the collective efforts of governments, industries, companies, and individuals working together towards a common goal. Texas and Texans can serve as a beacon of inspiration, leading the charge in alternative energy adoption and investing today in the next century of energy production and consumption. Ultimately, our example should be one the world can follow.

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Louis Rosenthal is executive managing director at JLL and the global leader of the company's energy and renewables practice group.

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A View From HETI

How has the Texas grid improved since Winter Storm Uri in 2021? Getty Images

Many Houstonians were holding their breath during the hard freezes that occurred in late January. While Winter Storm Uri was five years ago, the massive blackouts remain a fresh memory.

During that storm, 4.5 million Texans lost power, the state suffered over $80 billion in economic losses, and more than 200 people lost their lives.

During the most recent freeze events, Texas did not experience large-scale blackouts across the state like those in 2021. Regional power outages occurred due to infrastructure issues, including ice on trees and power lines. Since Uri, we have not seen the same sustained weather conditions to test the grid, but there have been significant improvements.

What Has Changed Since Uri

The ERCOT grid has changed significantly since the storm in 2021:

  1. Senate Bill 3 required generators to winterize their equipment, treated the natural gas supply chain as critical infrastructure, and imposed fines of up to $1 million for falling short. More than 300 power units have already been weatherized, and regulators have issued clearer standards to help keep the grid running during extreme cold.
  2. There has been significant progress with monitoring the grid and preparing for emergencies. ERCOT has improved in spotting problems before they turn into outages. Operators now have stronger real-time visibility into generator performance and fuel supplies, improved coordination with natural gas providers, and more advanced forecasting tools that help predict energy availability.
  3. The Texas Energy Fund authorized more than $10 billion for reliability projects across the state. The funds support four programs that aim to increase energy generation and dispatch capacity during periods of grid strain.

Signs of Progress

The grid's performance from 2022 to 2026 shows measurable improvements in how the system handles extreme cold.

  • ERCOT has implemented conservation alerts to help reduce grid load and prevent major blackouts.
  • Operators monitor the reserve margin, essentially the buffer between supply and demand. When that cushion holds, the grid has more flexibility to keep power flowing.
  • Stronger coordination between generators, transmission operators and utilities is also improving overall system resilience.

Additionally, Texas has built one of the largest smart-meter networks in the country, enabling better predictive analysis of electricity demand and usage. These smart meters have been installed in 90% of Texas residential homes, providing a much more accurate picture of energy consumption.

Finally, energy companies are helping customers understand how small changes in usage can ease grid strain. Individually, those adjustments may seem minor, but across millions of homes, they can meaningfully lower demand and help reduce the risk of outages.

Remaining Vulnerabilities and Possible Risks

Despite the progress, Grid Strategies assigned the Texas power grid a D-minus rating this year. A major factor in the rating is Texas’s lack of connections to neighboring power grids. While the state earned a B for legislative engagement, delayed transmission projects contributed to a lower C-minus outcome score.

While the grid has become more reliable since 2021, several threats remain that could impede its continued progress.

  • Population growth remains one of the biggest tests for Texas grid reliability. The state is expected to add roughly 15 million residents over the next three decades.
  • Data centers, industrial expansion, and corporate relocations continue to drive electricity demand higher. Houston sits at the center of that growth, making it a key region to watch to see whether Texas can keep pace with rising energy needs.
  • Increased weather volatility in Texas will make demand predictions even more challenging. Currently, Texas supplies almost 45% of its energy needs with natural gas. Natural gas production and extraction are particularly susceptible to cold weather and freezing conditions.

What “No Blackouts” Really Means for Texans

A stronger grid comes with a price tag. Meeting Texas’s growing demand requires major investments in generation, transmission, and emergency preparedness, and those costs ultimately flow to consumers through higher electric bills.

At the same time, Texans are becoming more proactive about managing energy use and protecting against outages, with more homeowners investing in generators, battery storage, and solar as part of long-term energy planning.

Final Thoughts

As lawmakers continue to debate how to recover grid investments, consumers will ultimately bear part of the cost. The challenge moving forward is improving reliability while keeping electricity affordable for Texans.

Texas continues to expand renewable generation to diversify the power mix, and battery storage is quickly becoming a key reliability tool because it can respond almost instantly to demand spikes. At the same time, advanced forecasting technology is helping operators better anticipate grid stress.

The Texas energy market is evolving fast, driven by population growth and rising electricity demand. Lawmakers, regulators, and grid operators will need to stay aligned to keep reliability moving in the right direction, while consumers will play a bigger role in managing how and when they use electricity.

So, is Texas better prepared for winter today? In many ways, yes. But the grid is still vulnerable to extreme weather and rapid demand growth. Maintaining reliability will require continued investment, planning, and coordination to keep the lights on across the state.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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